 It's a stone throws away of taking down this macro channel. And if you saw the betting, right, if you saw the betting going to the CPI, they weren't betting the 230, 240, 250 calls. They were betting the 165, 160, 155 puts on the weekly basis, so. Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good evening, everybody. Welcome to another edition of theaxisotrader.com, nightly wrap up show. Hope everybody is doing well. Happy CPI day, right? So CPI came, CPI went. A lot of stuff happened in between. We'll get to that in a second. As always guys, we really do appreciate all the love and support on our channel. If you are new here, subscribe, click a like, all that crazy, kooky, social media stuff they tell me to say. I'm saying it, but all jokes aside, thank you very much for tuning in on a nightly basis. So let's talk about the market. So today was this supposedly big thing, right? Consumer price index, fifth reading of cooling inflation, right? That's the best way of saying it. By all metrics, by all forecast, I believe the expectations were for 0.3%. Everything came in this morning, below that 0.1%, I believe. And this is the fifth consecutive straight CPI report that was declined. And as you saw, if you were watching the market at 8.30, like every other active trader was, the market just went absolutely nuts for about 45 seconds, right? It was like 45 sex, sex, Freudian slip. 45 seconds of the best experience you could possibly have, maybe that previous comment was something noteworthy. But more important is Qs1 nuts, they put up a $14 candle in about 30 seconds. Absolutely crazy. And then 30 seconds later, they lost about $7 worth of value, just like that. And if you didn't believe, and if you didn't think today was gonna be violent from last night's video, well, let me be the first person to break the news, today was pretty violent. The only thing that happened today that unfortunately a lot of new traders either put the blinders on yesterday, ahead of today's day, it was nothing short of rug pull, very, very exaggerated, incredibly aggressive. And unless you took something on opening range high into strength, anybody, literally anybody who bought anything long in the first 40 minutes, unless it was an opening range trade, everybody was on the water. As you can see here, this is the daily chart, right? The Qs, they got above the previous range of 296, I traded all the way up to 301 and then just got absolutely annihilated. At one point, they almost went right in the day. And as you can imagine, every chart is exactly the same thing, right? Every single NASDAQ name, everyone, you could just go through every single one of them, Microsoft and Apple and they all look the same. You could go through all 100 of them, they all look the same. So I knew I definitely didn't wanna be long into strength, that's for sure. There was a couple of bounce areas I was watching that I missed and I said to myself, you know what, if the market does indeed have one of these gap and go moves, let's watch this thing at least after 10 o'clock, okay? If the market's gonna be strong, we're gonna confirm those 10 o'clock highs and let's see what happens there. Unfortunately, it didn't play out that way, right? It didn't play out that way for the bulls and like I said last night, you have to be prepared for everything, right? We had some longs we were watching, we definitely had some shorts we were watching. If you guys remember what we talked about last night, if the CPI is deemed to be bad, we're gonna watch Tesla. Well, the CPI looked to be good and guess what? We still watch Tesla and this was definitely, as you can imagine, definitely the move of the day, definitely the trade of the day, massive, massive option flow coming in. They were buying the January 140s, 150 puts, like they were just giving away this was like the last day to buy those puts. Other than that, the Dow at one point went red a couple of times and when you turn around, right? When you turn around and you look at the final numbers, they look good, right? They look good. The traditional media is saying, hey, the stock's closed higher, right? On a cool inflation report, that's what they're saying, right? The Dow up 100, the S&P up 29 and the Nasdaq was up 113. The problem was that's a 1% move on the Nasdaq and it was up 4% in 30 seconds. So you can really, you have to kind of, unless you are a really active trader and you're there from 8.30 in the morning to the close and you don't know exactly how this market got up only 1% of the day, well, if you look at all the stocks and you look at all the indexes, you'll quickly see. So where do we go from here, right? So I wanna do a quick history lesson before we kind of transition tomorrow. Tomorrow, obviously, is Fed Day, right? The consensus is that there is probably going to be a 50 basis point hike, okay? But let's talk about, before we get to tomorrow, let's talk about today. So if you look at the last three readings, you'll notice a common theme here, right? The first reading that we talked about was in September, it got sold very hard. The October, right? The October CPI number came in, just like it came in today, same language, right? Rally, sold off, rallied, wound up selling off, right? The next reading was the November reading, right? That's kind of where we were before today. It rallied, got stuffed, sold back off. They just try to rally it again on the pal comments, they sold it back off. So today, again, there's another juicy CPI number and what they did was they sold, they sold 60, 80% of the move, whatever it was. I'm not great at numbers. So here's my point, right? So now we're back to here. Now again, you can make two cases here. We are above at least the last week's worth of channel. Absolutely, we absolutely are. However, we are below the top of this channel here where we got rejected, right? If you can see here, the top of the move here is 296. Today's high was like 296 and change, right? So we got stuck above the channel here and we are above the previous channel here. So we're kind of a little bit impurgatory. I think tomorrow without being dramatic, okay? Now I don't wanna be dramatic. I know there's a lot of new traders listening and watching and just starting their career and I don't wanna put the whole, it's the line in the sand, the bull's better step up but we're gonna lose the 50. I don't wanna do all that, right? I'm obviously, my brain is always working and I'm always thinking, again, for me it doesn't make a difference which side the market goes. As long as they confirm the top of the channel, the bottom of the channel, I'll be there. It doesn't make a difference being I'm doing this for a very long time. But I think tomorrow is gonna prove to be a very important day. I think the bulls have one more bull at the play and that's obviously Powell. Can Powell come across, again, very, very responsible on the bull case and pull a maneuver what it did on November 30 and have this market just go absolutely nuts? Absolutely, it's very, very possible. But I think if he starts speaking, the same terms, the same, spawns the same narrative and kind of doesn't change around the language and the bulls don't react to, at least to what he said on November the 30th, there's gonna be a problem because if they already sold off this CPI number, what's to say, they have to rally tomorrow. It's a very open-ended question. It's a very fair question. It's a rhetorical question that I don't think anybody can answer. We all know the market's either gonna go up or down tomorrow. It's not brain surgery. But the question is based on today's data and based on the last several times that the CPI came out with some pretty decent numbers or at least pretty good numbers that would deem to be below estimates, right? Below estimates, all they did was to sell off all those reading, including the Powell, right? The Powell pump that we had on November 30th. So I honestly think tomorrow, without being overly dramatic, I think tomorrow is important because again, if the bulls have a delayed reaction and Powell comes in like Marianne Rivera and saves the day again, right? And saves today's action and we kind of recuperate 70, 80% of the declines off the highs today, then we're back in business, right? We're back in business and then we still have a scenario and say, hey, any close over 296 is super bullish. I think it'll be bullish going to the first quarter of the year. The problem is we sold off, right? We sold off, guys, you're talking about a sell off, right? Look at this thing. We sold off what, $8 from the high. So for us to have a valid pivot back to the upside, the Q's gonna have to reclaim today's highs, okay? So that's gonna be a very, very, very tough nugget. Is it possible? Of course it's possible, but I think the bulls definitely gotta step up. I think Powell has to deliver a message that, hey, it's not like we're just talking about inflation. I think we have a definitive plan when I think all this is going to play out from a fiduciary responsibility from the Fed and the Treasury and all that comes and goes with it. Because if, again, if the bulls don't hear that language and if the bulls aren't feeling very, very comfortable inside, well, again, you've seen the scenario of what happens after every data point is released, including the jobs number include, including the Powell pump. And again, if we start losing today's channels tomorrow, again, we're gonna start having this conversation again, the significance of the 50 day moving. I mean, it's just kind of reality, right? It's just kind of reality. You can say what you want, you can think what you want. It doesn't make a difference that the market price action is telling us over and over and over again. It's not just as clear as everybody thinks. It looked phenomenal, right? At around 8.31 this morning, Eastern time. I mean, everything was going absolutely nuts. And then you looked by the open and just like this, right? Just like the Q's chart. And here's the 60 minute view, right? Here's the Q's chart. Here's the initial move. And then doop, doop, doop, doop. I mean, just really, really big, aggressive move down. So we'll see, you know, we'll see tomorrow at two o'clock, tomorrow at two o'clock, we will definitely get our answer of what happens next and exactly which way the wind is going to blow. As you can imagine, as you can imagine for today, you know, once we started seeing, and these were, you know, these were the pivots, right? Once we started seeing, you know, everything just kind of exploded. I mean, everything, Microsoft is a 15. Everything was going nuts, right? And I go, as you can see, there's going to be a ton of violence today, right? Our upside pivots are long gone, long gone. And so it's actually ironic that I actually made an upside watch list tomorrow for today just because we kind of knew if the numbers are gonna be good, you know, everything's gonna blow up. So it's kind of weird. I go, let things settle, let the noise settle in the first 30 minutes. I'll start putting the pivots as they develop. Again, that's the prudent thing to do. You don't want to trade on emotion. You don't want to be the guy talking about, hey, gap and go, gap and go. Again, anybody who bought stock in the first 40 minutes that was not deemed an opening range trade for some cash flow, everybody's under water. You can see the prices. You can see the prices are pretty much, I would say 99.9% of the stocks today. Everybody was under water and after the first half hour, 40 minutes. So it's very, very important to say. And again, the most important part is kind of stopping and starting and trading every single day different. Obviously with this type of violence, this type of aggression comes a lot of unpredictability. Again, cue the people who bought the market at the open. And I go, if you're trading today on strength, right? On strength, not the short side, but on strength, size down to a quarter to third size because again, generally, right? If you're putting together a game plan and that game plan confirms, you're looking at a heavy reward versus risk ratio because you're telling, the market's price action is telling you that you're on the right side because of your research. Today was flipped over, right? Since everything just started going absolutely out of its mind in the first 30 seconds after the release. Today, it was all risk to the long side, right? All risk, not enough reward. It's again, it's like, you know, it's like the market just ate its fancy steak dinner in the first 30 seconds and you're left with the crumbs and you're trying to lick the plate. That's all you had if you're a long biased trader today. Unfortunately, that's the way it played out. It was only four pivots today, right? As you can imagine, I didn't wanna go heavy today on the upside because of what I just said, what we just talked about. And again, if you're trading the strength today, only size down to quarter third size. So even if you were wrong, you were wrong for nothing and that's the whole point. So here's the first one, right? Nvidia 187 rejected twice, needs to build. As you can imagine, not a big move, right? It was up a lot. It came back. We did have a nice balance that I personally missed by about 20 cents on that initial move. I know a lot of you guys caught it off the initial 83 that bounced to 87, which I went to throw up. I literally missed the bounce by 20 cents, but I know a lot of you guys got it. But as you can see here, it took out the 87, right? Took out the 87, you know, went up, you know, went up like a dollar, nothing big and then everything obviously crashed. As you can get, as you can imagine, that was, you know, that was the violence. Netflix was actually pretty good. 328, 329 needs to confirm. Here was Netflix, right? So Netflix took out the macro level here. You guys remember a couple of days ago in the 12.09 highs. So it took out 229, traded up to roughly 333. Again, not bad, but let me look what happened. Look at the sell-off like everything else. Here's where the day got really, really good, right? Q's never confirmed. I said 97, 20 needs to build. The high today was like 296, I think 80s or 90s. So it never got there, right? So I said, look, there's a shot, 34, 35, got to 33. Here is, this is kind of my point. And this is where we talk about, this is where we talk about letting your research play out with you. It's cool to have a nice, bright, shiny scoreboard. The Dow was up at 1.700, and it went right in the day. It looked great at 700. The Nasdaq was up 350, 380 at one point. At one point, the Nasdaq went down. It was only up like 20 points, finished up 100, blah, blah, but my point is, and this is kind of what we talk about, being prepared on both sides, right? So last night, we talked about, hey, if the market's good, we like the video, we like this one, we like that one. But I go, hey, if the market is bad, right, and they don't like the reading, I really like Tesla, right? All I got there is to watch the last night's video, right? Really like Tesla, because it's coming in, it never rallied yesterday, on yesterday's rally, and it's coming in on macro area. So, and this is the whole point, guys. You only need one. You don't need to be in everything. You don't need to be looking for 2,000 different stocks. You only need to be one. So here is the game plan, right? Here is the game plan. Part one was for experienced traders only. It's something we call a very sneaky pivot. Not every entry is for everybody, but here is for all you guys who caught, and this is where I entered as well. Part one for experienced traders only. 169, if it builds below, can flush. Yesterday's low was 167.50, right? Yes, 167.50 represented the bottom of the channel. If 167.50 confirms, right, we should test macro. The macro area was 166. Everybody see it? 166 is macro if it builds below, can flush. And that is where we look at the daily chart, right? The daily chart, and here is the 166 lows, right? Here's the 166 lows. Yesterday's 167.50, 166 macro. They were coming nonstop, guys. Nonstop with the 160s, 155s, 140s. One after another coming for the January 150 puts, and Tesla got smoke today. It really did. I couldn't care less what the rest of the market was doing. Again, if you're watching this broadcast for a long time, you know, this is by far my favorite stock to trade and trade pretty much every day, long, short, doesn't make a difference. It took down yesterday's channel, it took down macro, the low from 11.22 and went all the way down to 157. Phenomenal move, absolutely phenomenal move. Is it possible it bounces tomorrow, maybe has a dead cat bounce day? Sure, absolutely, but the way the institutional market is still betting the market, betting, you know, I don't know what's going on with Tesla. I don't think anybody knows what's going on with Tesla. And a lot of people have this whole big theory that Elon's paying too much attention to Twitter, blah, blah, blah, blah, I don't know, right? I don't know. We don't have to know, we don't have to guess, we don't have to be smart. We just wait for those levels to develop, you set alerts for those levels. And once they confirm, usually great things are going to happen. And today just worked out pretty damn well and all you needed was that one. So that's it guys, tomorrow, tomorrow, again, let's see what the bulls have. Let's see what the bulls have. I personally think they have that last bullet to play. If Powell could come in and save the day and we start, you know, even making back, you know, 30, 40% of today's decline from at least the highs, you know, then we'll start giving the bulls the benefit of the doubt. But the idea that we've seen so many data points that got rejected over and over and over again, maybe sometimes in one day, maybe sometimes over the course of three, four days is still giving me a little bit of a hesitation to kind of put that stamp on the Santa Claus rally. We'll see you guys, remember, you only need one. You only trade when you feel comfortable. You don't trade because the market's open. You trade because you have value. Guys, God bless, stay blessed and I will see you all tomorrow.