 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network The best day in motor sports is coming up on Sunday with the Monaco Grand Prix Indianapolis 500 and hopefully depending on rain the Coca Cola 600 we're gonna break down all three of those events here today here to join Me to break down that is Dr. Nick Giffen of the action network will pick his brain on the Indy 500 Talks and Coke 602 to get you ready for it should be a fantastic Sunday This is covering the spread that's right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Saunas. I am a senior writer and analyst for a number fire joint here is mentioned by dr. Nick Giffen You can find him on Twitter at roto doc He is a predictive analyst for the action network also a co-host of the running hot podcast and the stacking Denny's podcast Nick It's got to be a Fantastic time of year for you not just Indy, but also the Vegas Golden Knights thriving right now So it's like a good time to me Nick Giffen. How you doing today? Yeah, man, it's it's a good time to be me. I guess I'm doing great I hit a crazy bet on the the Vegas game I went to last and I hit a crazy bet on the Indy car race I went to some two for two and hitting crazy bets at games. I've attended sporting events I've attended so hopefully I'll keep that streak going but I'm just gonna be watching from the couch this weekend Right the Indy car one you're referring to is you won like 27,000 on Kyle Kirkwood. I think it was somewhere around there What was the NHL one for the Vegas game? Chandler Smith score the game-winning goal. Sorry Chandler Stevens from Chandler I get my sports confused my Chandler is confused score the game-winning goal in overtime That one was not necessarily the most advised play We do have a guy at Action Network who told me he thought overtime was a good bet and well my girlfriend's cat is named Chandler So I that for that reason So I love the process. We're talking about your process for Indy here today But the Kyle Kirkwood bet you were a Kyle Kirkwood fan you were going to the race to watch that one in person and Decided to put stuff down and it wasn't just like you know, FOMO bet it was also like informed by his speed and road course and stuff like that but it's nice when the Heart bets wind up paying out to Absolutely, so no, I definitely was just trying to have a little action on the hockey game But the Kyle Kirkwood bet was a legit bet like 20 to 1 for him at Long Beach with Andrade Auto Sports history there His best finish last year we know with Floyd racing was at Long Beach So that was just way too long and it happened to hit Well, maybe we can talk some Kirkwood today too. We're going to break down the Indy 500 here in just one second Then we'll talk Coke 600 then I'll talk Monaco at the end But before that a quick reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast We are an Apple podcast Spotify Stitcher Google podcast. You name it. You can find us there Why are there if you like what you hear leave us a five-star rating and also check us out over on the Fandall YouTube page If you like there subscribe to the Fandall YouTube page and give us a thumbs up as well Let's start things off here with the Indianapolis 500 Nick and looking at the Indy 500 The cars have been on track for it seems like the entire month Running practices, especially recently after qualifying this past weekend But it's obviously different conditions for the race than it's been for practice because the draft is such a big factor for Indy So How much can we glean from that practice data if we're trying to predict who will be fast on Sunday? Yeah, it is pretty tough. It's not like NASCAR We can get a lot from the practice data with Indy car with the tow the draft It is very easy to set up some artificially fast lap times Obviously, you can set those lap times in a race condition if you wanted to but then you're gonna wear your tires out beat up your car too much So it's not typically going to be what you do but You know, I think what we can really glean from practice if guys are constantly near the front of the practice times That makes something because we have so many days of practice if on the other hand You know if guys are at the bottom constantly I think that says something as well But if you see some guys, you know a couple days they're at the bottom, but a lot of time they're at the top it's probably that they're pretty good, but Practice times can definitely be misleading Occasionally we get to hear about a 10 lap average if the tv broadcast mentions it or shows a little Graphic of it, but we don't get much in the way of that now you can go To the indy car website they have PDFs of every practice session with every lap terms But I don't want to scrape PDFs and sift through all that. So I don't do that For me, it's more important to listen to what the drivers say. This is in a way It's almost like horse bed and you're like, you know, how's this horse done on all these other similar tracks? But also, how is he looking today? How's he feeling? How's he acting? And that's you got to do the same thing with drivers, you know if you have a driver saying well my car is Really really good great in the draft it can suck up really well. That's what you want to hear But if you have another guy saying man, I'm getting too much understeer And then this happens when I get behind a driver and then this what happens when I get out front It's totally different. That is a red flag right there. So it is all about listening to the drivers listening to The drivers like strategist and crew chiefs and things like that at indy and then, you know Baking in some track history and be some track stuff as well Now you're pretty tuned in to indy car. So you've been paying attention to what drivers have said throughout this month Are there any Noteworthy notes you would say in terms of guys who have been high on their car Some who have maybe been frustrated with how things have gone any big notes as far as what the drivers have said that you've noticed Yes, very very important one. Uh, so joseph new garden is a series champion. He's yet to win the indy 500 but uh, he is a Multiple time series champion He has not liked his car so far this month. It was good the first day of practice Last week then the second day he said man, we lost something. I don't know what happened. I mean the temperature is warmer and Then, you know, they switch into qualifying mode for a couple days there Then this past monday Still warmer temperatures still not where they want to be, you know, still getting too much oversteer this that and the other Well race day is forecast to be even warmer. So that is not a good trend If he's struggling more in warmer conditions And doing better when it's cooler. So very very much a red flag there with joseph new garden for me and then potto award one of the race favorites Uh, he's performed very well at indy. His car has been very inconsistent from one tire Change to the next. Maybe it's the tires. Maybe it's his car. They're kind of still Figuring it out and I kind of noticed that last week as well. He didn't seem like the most consistent most comfortable most upbeat Potto awards a very upbeat guy and when he's sitting there kind of puzzled and confused It it lets you wonder so very interesting notes on two of the drivers there that I'd be concerned about And those are very know worthy because their odds are short as you mentioned potto award 8 to 1 if annual sportsbook new garden a bit longer at 16 to 1 but that's still That's still high enough where if those guys are maybe a bit overpriced by the bookmakers That could lead to value elsewhere. We'll talk about the potential values later on but you referenced track history And I think obviously given how unique indianapolis is that's going to be a key part of your process for betting For me with nascar, I know I always want to lean on current form because it shows you Uh, it's accounting for equipment stuff like that. It's always going to be my focal point But with indy especially like this year, I think they've had just you can correct me if i'm wrong But just one oval race so far So how are you judging for mentoring the race if it matters at all to you because it may not and are there any races Whether from earlier this year or last year we could help You know factor in to try to judge as being decent comps for indy Yeah, I think the main thing about current form is it if you're looking at results from this year It's not really going to help a lot. So current form just really isn't going to help you cap indy indy is going to help you cap indy and thankfully we have two weeks of practice And in track history. So, uh, yeah, I'm not really baking in what these drivers did at texas texas is a one and a half mile high bank oval And then indy is totally flat. I mean it's nine degrees in the corners and it's two and a half mile long So not a whole lot of similarities there. The road courses really aren't going to get much from at all. So You know, if there was one notable, I guess takeaway from this year kind of as a whole I think one thing I've noticed is the andretti cars maybe do struggle a little bit with tire wear on softer tires and They did bring a little bit softer left side tire to indy this year So i'm curious if the andretti cars the andretti autosports cars colton her to kyle kirkwood Romain grojan marco andretti devlin defranchesco They'll struggle a little bit with tire wear again. It's supposed to be warmer Uh, and a little bit softer tire. We should see more degradation Well power thinks it's going to be very important to manage your tires. So a little curious about that. That's not that, you know that's what has me Tentative with my guy kyle kirkwood in terms of his number right now. He loves his car. He actually said Um, this this andretti autosports alternation honda There's nobody better out there right now than than the sandretti autosports Honda so when somebody says that and they're that confident and kyle kirkwood's not one to um, you know Be hyperbolic with his words there Uh, it does make you take note like he's probably a pretty good bet But then I just when you're talking current form the one trend I've really noticed this year is the falloff on the andretti's on softer tires And it matters more in the road courses because we have the black primary tires Which are harder and the softer red tires and that's where they struggle a lot but Indy just one tire compound, but they did soften those left sides a little bit from last year Managing tires fuel is always imported indy too. That should lead to some fun strategy Which is always a kind of the underrated part I would say about indy is like how fun it is from a thinking perspective So that could lead to a good race And if it is kind of annoying for your guy kyle kirkwood on sunday Now let's take a look at the odds board here over at vandal sportsbook. Alex polo is a favorite He is six to one right now scott dixon seven to one pata award is eight to one Dixon was eight to one a shortened out of seven which could be potentially nowhere to there Let's start things off with the favorites here nick Is there any value in those top couple of guys or are they properly priced as where things stand right now? Yeah, I think there's I mean obviously, you know my hesitation on a board I think dixon's probably a little too short. I mean the guy's raced 20 something of these possibly and Has only won one So, you know, it's just so competitive out there But i'm still gonna actually say that I believe alex polo is a value at six to one Just because of how good he's been and we talked about the month of may they actually had an open test session Back in april and I jumped on alex polo at 11 to one then because his car looked so good He could pass at will in that test session. He was so company was beaming You could see how happy was with his car. He you know just the way he talked and and and everything like that So it's those You know those verbal cues those garage talk as I call it That led me to bet polo at 11 to one and then it continues in the month of may he's been super consistent Qualifies on the pole. That doesn't really matter so much for me But then Monday after qualifying when they all go back to race mode Most consistent car but again passing it will best 10 lap average We actually got a little bit of a glimpse of 10 lap averages there So that's nice because it smooths out if you get like one big toe On one of those laps. You still have nine other laps kind of blend that data out So, uh, yeah, I think he's still a value at six to one. I mean, he's been in it He's been in the mix in both of these races that he's raced with ganassi. So, uh, I like him at six to one If you didn't have the 11 to one in your pocket already, would you be willing to bet the six to one? Assuming you had no exposure to him at all Absolutely I will okay So polo six to one a good bet by what nick is seeing what he has seen in the month of may What polo has said and what he's seen here at indy previously now Let's look at the overall odds board every bet you've got open to you at indy for right now with where the odds currently stand Nick What are your favorite bets or bets for sunday's race with where things stand? We're talking outs rights or everything everything because everything my book here wrote out and finally posted not outright So, uh, I've got whatever whatever is on your mind. I will take I love it. All right. So yeah, exactly so, um honestly If we want a long shot like a flyer everybody loves a good long shot story Uh, ryan hunter ray 65 to one at vandal. I know there's a 66 out there as well Is a very interesting one. He is another guy that's been so happy with this car. He's been able to pass Um, I wouldn't say it will not like alex polo, but he's been able to make a lot of passes I think he'll be able to hang out in that lead draft And put himself in a position where if things happen if the right situation happens He could win But then if you want to just take him maybe as the top chevy because I've had questions with sunday's chevy It's like potto. Oh ward, uh, you know, joseph new guard And I don't necessarily think scott mclofflin is the the top chevy to beat uh at indy He's never finished better than 20th in his two here So if you want to take ryan hunter ray at like 30 to 1 as the top chevy I like that bet as well. Um, so 65 to 1 outright 30 to 1 top chevy I think both of those are really fine bets I'm gonna find a way to uh work in my guy kyle kirkwood here. I do like 30 to 1 I do like it But I think my preferred avenue to play kyle kirkwood if you if you shop around if you look at different books Um, there is a group that has kyle kirkwood his teammate romain grojón Ed carpenter and ellio castroneviz and kyle kirkwood is plus 240 to win that group I think he has the best car of those four And you know the thing that you're getting here is romain grojón and ellio castroneviz romain grojón's andretti autosports and and ellio castroneviz drives from myershank racing Which has a technical alliance with andretti. They've all been very much similar speeds So I'd have to expect them to have a similar tire dag degradation and Kyle kirkwood has been the best of the andretti bunch and the andretti myershank bunch by far so you're really In terms of like uncertainty comparing them to ed carpenter and ed carpenter is great. He's fantastic here I think he's gonna have a good car, but I think kyle kirkwood just has a better car I know ed carpenter has been happy with his car But I just don't quite think he's as good as kyle kirkwood. So kyle kirkwood plus 240 in that group finally um You know if you want to go maybe kind of a mid-tier outright that uh, I do think If you can find santino farucci at 20 to 1, I don't hate that My big concern there with him is he's racing for aj foy racing And you know if you want to get into the current form thing aj foy racing is the bottom to your team in indy car literally the bottom to your team in indy car and For some reason they have absolutely nailed it at indy this week this month. I should say farucci qualified fourth They he loves he absolutely, you know, we talk about drivers that are beaming love in their car He was able to pass at will and the other thing is this is like one of the first times He's had a full-time ride while doing the 8500. He's done a lot of one-off or partial time rides in the 8500 He's always finished inside of the top 10 and he's always started 15th or worse So he's a guy that always moves forward in this race Well now he's starting fourth and he's in a full-time ride So he's like I can afford to be more aggressive because I know i'm not going to throw away an opportunity here I can be more aggressive. I can go for it. So I don't hate Santino farucci at 20 to 1 if you want to throw, you know, like kind of a mid tier outright that as well Okay, so check around for some kyle kirkwood group bets See if you can get farucci at 20 to 1 or longer and also check out maybe ryan hunter race 65 to 1 to win or 30 to 1 as the top chevy where books are offering those Let's talk about some coca-cola 600 now nicks Of course you do a lot of nascar stuff as well and my big question for you around this week's race is charlotte seemed a lot different last year than it had been previously It could be because of the next gen car could be because the track surface is wearing whatever it may be So when you are looking at this race, are you expecting last year to be a predictor of what to expect going forward for charlotte or Could there be like a reversion to the mean where there's a less chaotic race this time around? Uh, I think both. I think it'll be uh less chaotic. It'll be a reversion of the mean, but it'll still be pretty chaotic Um, yeah, you know So more on the next gen side of things than the gen six side of things with the 600 And the reason I say that I mean look how crazy kansas got look how crazy darlington got These guys they know they have to just try to get wins now Uh, the the win the all-important win gets you those playoff points five playoff points every single one of those Sets of five playoff points is huge come playoff time and uh, then you add in the next gen car And uh, you know, I think the reason vegas was a little more tame is because it was hot. It was dry. It was uh, You know different conditions, but if we get hopefully a night race at charlotte It's going to be cooler to be more humid there'll be more downforce man The car is going to be flying through the corners and they'll be able to run close together So I think we could still see a pretty chaotic race But it's going to be hard to beat last year's was at 18 cautions and two red flags something like that So I think there'll be a version of mean, but I still think there'll be enough chaos That we probably can lean at least on uh last year in terms of like some insights as to You know, not always the fastest drivers are going to thrive here. So that's that's kind of what I think Yeah, 18 cautions. I think 17 drivers did not finish There were seven drivers who led at least 15 laps or something like that And all four of the top finishing drivers were involved in at least one crash Uh, at least one caution like if you list look at racing reference it lists out the cars in the caution All then we're in at least one harvick was in two and kyle bush had a pit road shocker penalty In that race as well. So like A lot of issues even for the best teams in that race. So it was definitely wild there for sure and Sounds like we should expect something similar for this week Even if it is uh, if it does get right out sunday, I wouldn't be shocked if they go monday night because There's a lot of rain during the day monday, too. So Could be a long wait till we get racing on the track uh for this weekend Now let's take a look here at the odds board over at fan dual sports, but kyle arson understandably so the favorite He's plus 420 Let's talk about overall outright so it can be it can be a favorite It can be a long shot when you look at the board with where things stand right now, nick anybody stand out to you Before hypothetical practice and qualifying which probably is not going to happen because of the weather Yeah, uh, I think you're gonna like this one because we're on the same page here But the guy that stands out to me is ross chastain Um looking around you know 11 to 1 is what I see as the longest 9 to 1 at fan dual You still have his value. I have very close to value there at 9 to 1 But if you can snag an 11 out there, uh ross chastain is the guy I want and here's the thing I'm almost glad that he crashed in the way he did at darlington because There's been a lot of pushback and there's even been some pushback now from his team owner Justin mark saying hey, we got to rain this in a little bit. So I think the next time he's in that position He's going to give himself a better shot to win than You know trying to force kyle arson way up against the wall and then getting too tight and then wrecking himself as he said He did ross chastain. So um, I think it's almost a good thing that he wrecked at darlington and uh, you know As a learning experience. He's he's had a lot of learning experiences But I do think that one, you know, kind of maybe set some some wheels in motion of like, hey We gotta we gotta actually rain this in if we want to win a championship But uh, I mean one of the best cars at this race last year arguably one of the best cars at Several of the races this year if you look at my flags metric So I have a metric where I basically look at healthy car speed and then compare it lap by lap to all the other Healthy cars on that lap and on similar tire strategy Ross chastain comes in as six in the like what I would say the three most similar tracks this year That would be kansas, los vegas and this past weekend at uh, she's like two weekends We had the all-star races past weekend, but uh darlington the most recent race because reason the same tire Compounds on both sides of the car as darlington. So ross chastain comes in sixth in my flags metric and uh, I think probably Almost should be a little bit higher if not for some of these, uh, situations. He's put himself in Yeah, he's definitely it's self-inflicted a lot of times which is annoying but And that's the pushback that you get when you recommend ross chastain is like, oh Do you think he'll avoid chaos for 400 or 400 laps and You know, maybe not but we can account for that Like I have an incident right in my model and I can just up his incident right which I have And despite that he's still a value So I think for me that impacts like floor more so than upside where there are more situations in which You know the brown stuff hits the fan for him and that matters But yeah, the upside is still there based on what we've seen as far as the speed goes at fontana at uh The other tracks as well in last year too in the same track type This has been a track type where he has thrived despite the fact He has not won on a non drafting oval in the cup series as of yet So I do agree that ross chastain My favorite outright right now, uh, if you can get 11 to 1 I think that's fantastic I got 10 to 1. I think that that makes a lot of sense too. I do like that quite a bit Now among the non-outrights anything sent out to you there, uh, as we as we get set for sunday's race Yeah, I mean, uh bubble wallace, I really like him If you can find him whether it's a top toyota if you can find a good top five price on him I think he is super fantastic. Uh, you know, I I see a plus 260 out there for his top five I love that bubble wallace and we talk about my flags metrics Uh of the the 32 drivers that have raced in all three of those races that I called similar he's sitting fourth in Basically and what I think of is true speed So that's just incredible Uh, and that includes darlingson which traditionally hasn't been one of his strongest tracks It's been fine for him, but it hasn't necessarily been one of his strongest Uh, and last year at the 600. He was really good up until uh, no I know he had contact at some point and kind of ruined his race there and his speed So I like bubble wallace. We can grab him at a top five Plus 260 and if you want to, you know, look around for his top toyota price I I'd like his top toyota price if you can get it anything longer than, you know Five to one because five to one would be the average toyota I think even at five to one he is he's playable there because I think he's better than the average toyota right now I mean, he's been better than Tyler retic his teammate Uh in every single one of those three races in flags, uh, so for me bubble wallace five to one top toyota If you want to get them plus 250 plus 260 top five I like those bets as my favorite non outright bets right now I actually had value in bubble to win before Alex bowman was announced as like being back in the car for hendrick and like You could argue that the hendrick that that bowman in my model is over value because it doesn't account for the fact that like His back is super jacked up. I also do have like an increased incident rate on him For that reason, you know, if you have to get out of the car, whatever it may be So you could argue that bowman is overvalued in my model and if he is that could make bubble value too I've got him at 4.98 percent to win. So, uh, pretty close to his to being a value I almost did take him on monday night. Uh, didn't quite get there, but I think he is fantastic I'm close to that 260 number on the top five as well for him So I agree based on The fact that he was fast and dying to him, which has never been a good track for him It's typically been a pretty bad one for him. Uh, how good he's been on the mile and a half How fast 2311 has been in general I agree. He's kind of like the guy I want to search for I think there's some group bets Uh, like william hill and stuff like that where he is interesting too But I think searching for a place to bet bubble is something I'd want to do for this weekend So I'm fully on board with you with that Yeah, and if I want to throw out one more kind of crazy one, um, these are ones my model does not show value on I actually think my incident rate isn't high enough because you know, when you want to build a model You want to test it on past data and past 600s have not been as crazy So I think, you know, just the implied incident rate from my model and I don't manually turn mine up or down I kind of let just that, you know, the algorithm determine that, uh, I think it's too low And I really like, uh, just an angle here on the penske's, um, brian blaney joey legano And I know I talked to you about this over over dms earlier, but uh If this race is a night race Then, uh, you know going after you're going in the evening It's likely the race will end in the upper 60s The humidity is forecast to be in the 60s something like that 60% range So if we compare that to let's say at los vegas where it was in the mid 80s lower mid 80s Sunny, uh, and uh, so, you know, even amp track temps are even higher than ambient temperatures in that situation and very low humidity exists in the dry desert That is low air density And very hot slick track and the thing that the fords have struggled with this year Is because they have that slimmer nose, especially the penske's Uh, that's reduced to drag. It's made them faster on the straightaways But it's really hurt them in the corners and as a result it's hurt their tired degradation a lot Well, if we go to cooler temperatures cooler ambient cooler track temperatures, uh, that is Higher air density and then you add in the humidity. That's even higher air density That'll add that down force back on that they've lost from this, you know, the redesign nose And I think they'll get some of that down force and grip back in the corners They won't be sliding as around as much they could be a little bit better This could be their best mile and a half or intermediate result of the year I think so if you can find something long on them 25 to 1 I'm not quite showing value on either driver at 25 to 1, right? But I think if I jacked up the incident rate and maybe Just applied my physics brain here, uh, I think then I could get to maybe a bet on that 25 to 1 Yeah, they're both 22 at fandwell. So not going to get there obviously, but if you can find I think there were 30 to 1 uh earlier on this week, uh at some books So 30 to 1 is very interesting given this and also like thinking back to last year I know the forward nose was different but Entering the coke 600 the steward Haas cars were just hideous and all of a sudden They were like in contention to win harvick finish Well chase briscoe was up there for a very long time. He spun eventually I think he actually did finish top four But like they came out of nowhere kind of so I think that what that says to me Even though the forward nose is different is that The tracks we've seen thus far although they're helpful They're not totally analogous to charlotte and that leaves open more variants for someone like Lagana or Blaney to jump up despite not showing a lot of speed so far this year Yeah, and you know, it's just one of those things where it's like man How often do we see Joey Lagana or Ryan Blaney 25 to 1 at a out of mile and a half? It just I can't remember the last time either of them were Yeah, I think entering One of the vegas races lagana was and it was one of those racer I was annoyed with my model for showing value in him which happened a lot last year Hasn't happened much this year like um, it was one of those races So it's been a long time uh since that happened, but I like the angle I like the thought process like that you're using like your background in like physics to To decipher this so I think that's a fun one for sure That is dr. Nick giffin makes you check him out on twitter at roto doc find all of his work over at the action network You can find him as well on stacking denny's in the running hot podcast as well Nick enjoy all the sunday all that has to offer. Uh, good luck to call Kirkwood Good luck to your bets as well And we're looking forward to talking to you again in the very near future here on the show You was well jim. I know uh, I know you're gonna enjoy the whole tripleheader weekend I'm already planning like the menu for each race. So I'm excited to uh to get that all cranked out. All right Oh, thank you, Nick. Appreciate it. You gotta do a three you gotta do a three race parley, right? Just a little fun one like a okay, so I would do So I'm talking about f1 after this but like I'm probably gonna wind up on max I know that like it's not a good track for red bull. It's not it doesn't set up well for them But like I think red bulls been hiding their speed all year. So it might not matter. So okay, I'll go max I think if you show value on pillow, I think I can do that Six to one and not go ross obviously. Uh, so first step in like pillow Chastain, there's your three driver parley at least based on what I've got. I'm on the same one. Let's do it I love it. I love it. Well. Good luck to you, Nick I'll pull for that parley right now. We'll see how it goes appreciate it and talk to you again soon All right, we'll see you Alrighty again, check out nick on twitter at rotodoc both his podcasts are phenomenal if you want some insights on indy 500 and the coke 600 stacking denny's and running hot the name of those two podcasts Like I said, we're gonna talk about some formula one here in just one second But first make a fast break to fandal during the NBA playoffs because right now New customers get a no sweat first bet of two one thousand dollars That's one thousand dollars back in bonus bets if your win bet doesn't win There's no better place to bet all the playoff action than america's number one sports book fandal official sports betting partner of the NBA must be 21 plus and president select states first online real money wager only $10 deposit required refund issued is not on the drop of bonus bets that expire in 14 days Restrictions apply c-fold terms at fandal.com slash sports book fandals offering online sports wagering in kansas under an agreement with kansas star casino llc gambling problem call 1 800 gambler or visit fandal.com slash rg in arizona 1 800 next step or text next step to 5 33 4 2 in connecticut 1 888 7 8 9 7 7 7 7 7 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in indiana 1 109 with it in wyoming in kansas 1 805 22 4700 in kansas ks gambling help dot com louisiana is 1 87 7 7 7 7 0 stop in massachusetts gambling helpline ma.org or call 800 3 2 7 50 50 for 24 7 support In maryland md gambling help.org in new york 1 877 a hopin wire text open wide And in west virginia go to 1 800 gambler net now this week in a formula one We got the monaco grand prix and if you don't know monaco the way that that race tends to work is it's called a parade where effectively The drivers who start out front are going to finish there because it's so tough to pass at this track and what that means is It's best to get your bets in now to see if you can show value See if you can get some value before Qualifying occurs and numbers move so There is risk in betting because it means your bet could be dead before the race even begins like let's say Max for stopping right now plus 105 at vandal sports, but if you take that there It could be dead Before you even get to sunday's race if he doesn't qualify within the first couple rows rows but it also means that Things are going to move quite a bit and personally i'd rather get out in front of it And i think that this also the second ripple effect is that it makes other markets pretty interesting Specifically there is one on fandal that that is offered where you can bet a driver will have the fastest time of qualifying to start on the pole and To win this race and see fastest qualifier race win or double right now max for stopping is plus 220 to do that and I think that's a pretty fun value and the reason i want to go there specifically is because i have concerns around red Bowl because You look at their cars and their cars are fastest in the fastest sections fast corners stuff like that They obliterate the field monaco doesn't really have that so it's a pretty terrible track fit for the red bull cars And that's why as a result my concern is that verstappen will not win the pole on saturday at monaco What this market does though is it kind of Bakes in that risk by lengthening verstappen's odds to plus 220 his odds to win Plus 105 right now fandal sportsbooks. You're getting a pretty big gap there But that's kind of a big detriment for verstappen is will he win the pole? I don't know because I think ferrari is in play to win the pole. I think that aston martin is in play to win the pole given that Fernando Alonso is very good at monaco and also It seems like betters are pretty into this new Design for the mercedes car because louis hamilton was 28 to 1 earlier this morning He is now 16 to 1 they have been showing the side pods They tweeted pictures out of them and stuff like that and it's led to some shortening for louis hamilton down to 16 to 1 So clearly people who are investing money in this race are saying to you to me That they think this race is more wide open than what we've seen so far this year And I think that's true But I also don't want to double count for that and when you look at verstappen's odds at plus 220 to Win the pole and then win the race I think that we would be double counting to not be intrigued by max at that number So the reason I can't get to plus 105 to win this race outright is because I am concerned about Red Bull's speed in qualifying their speed in qualifying is not as good as it is For their race pace, but also it gives me better odds and accounts of that so Even though this is objectively not a good track for red bull because again, it doesn't play to their strengths I think they've been hiding pace this entire year because they've been so far ahead of everyone They haven't really had to push all out. They are still going to be the best cars in this race despite that so I get extra leniency with verstappen by pushing his odds out to plus 220 I account for the fact that the biggest concern is qualifying not the race and I get a lengthening as a result So I think to me the best route for betting The monaco grand prix is taking verstappen to be the fastest qualifier and to win the race the double market There are fan dual sports book verstappen plus 220 there now with hamilton shortening in the outright market Maybe we get verstappen to lengthen a bit more from that plus 220 for the fastest qualifier race winner double I think that you could potentially still get this one at a good number Friday night before qualifying Obviously, you can't get it after qualifying so I personally would take this one now if you do like it because I think it's going to be a situation where we've already accounted for The issues with red bull and the issues the fact this is not going to be a track that suits them super well I think that's accounted for and we don't want a double count for that So to me For stappen plus 220 to win the pole and then win the race is the best bet for the monaco grand prix over at fandall sports book Other stuff not really seeing a lot of value for this monaco race So to me, I think that's what I'll stand for right now I'll circle back on sunday See if I can add anything then before the race But we're going to stick with verstappen at plus 220 to win the pole and then win the race That is all that we have here for today on covering the spread I want to give a big thank you once again to dr. Nick giffin check him out on twitter at rhododoc Find his work at the action network and again check out stacking denny's and the running hot podcast as well I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fandall podcast network at fandall podcast I want to thank you all for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your bets across the Motorsports tripleheader Hopefully on sunday depending on the rain and charlotte. We'll talk to you once again tomorrow talks an epl for the final match week of the year This has been covering the spread right here on the fandall podcast network