 program it is a central bank heavy week you've got to say so when it comes to US non-farm payrolls which we get on Friday it's likely impact on the timing of a rate hike in the US and from there on in I mean tell us what the yield curve is telling us about the likelihood in both those regards look very interesting and I think that non-farm payrolls really is the last hurdle and I doubt that you would see Janet Yellen move away from her raising the expectations of that March tightening she's pretty happy with how employment and sorry how inflation growth is going so it's really just unless that's a surprising number we're looking at March tightening I can think you think that we pretty much locked that away now we've seen the short end of the yield curve definitely move higher reflecting that view but we're not seeing it in the real movement on the longer end of the curve so while this Fed funds increase if it comes next week comes off the back of one only three months ago in December we do expect there to be another couple of tightening through 2017 but the markets not suggesting that this really causes any review of the moderate view of increases that the market has we're certainly not expecting that they're going to see significant quick significant quick succession of increases that's for sure okay you've got to think that the RBA would be happy to see a March interest rate hike coming through from the Fed would you agree while they remain on hold I think they'll be very happy the feds doing better work for them absolutely and you know we've seen a bit of commentary just over the last couple of days late last week suggesting the RBA is pretty happy with where the official cash rate is not suggesting that there'd likely be any downward movement I know a couple of commentators are expecting a cash rate of 1% by the end of this year for the US to move their rates higher it lowers the comparative value of our rates that takes a bit of pressure off demand and that sees the dollar drop and you mentioned that at the top of this segment you're already seeing that reflected now that's certainly going to alleviate the need for the RBA to drop rates I think in the near term I think if you get three more two more increases after the March one from the Fed we could see no movements by the RBA this year at all Simon Tony from Henderson Maxwell here just I'm switching gears to credit just briefly you know it's had an extraordinary run we consider the market in a year back in February of 2016 to where we are now is it starting to look a little bit expensive do you think for the risk that people are taking on in that space look at it is and that's something I've been looking at quite keenly actually if you look at Australian credit spreads which are the risk premium paid by major issues issuers here in Australia we're now down at 84 basis points and we haven't been that narrow or that low since about two years ago around about April 2015 so you are absolutely right investors have been very happy to take on more risk we've seen that reflected in the equity market as well we are getting to where it's quite expensive and we are starting to see some commentators suggest that you would want to pull out of out of credit or out of high yield the other thing is don't forget it's only got that tightening you know December a year ago it's 15 you know a lot of the leveraged positions that investors have taken to invest into some of this high yield debt especially some of the energy sectors emerging markets globally as your rates increase that that funding costs more and a lot of those positions can be unwound so that could have a bit of an impact on that high yield sector in that credit space as we saw happen a little over a year ago it's just an addendum to that Simon I was reading on the weekend as you do about emerging market debt and in particular credit issuance it's massively outpaced emerging market debt issuance is massively outpaced developed markets in the last five or ten years do you think that sort of more broadly there some of those balance sheets I know we're talking about instruments that not many Australian investors get involved in unless they're involved in ETFs or funds but do you think that that's pushed a little bit too hard well absolutely and this has been the search for yield I mean you know as rates have fallen so much investors have two choices they can either invest longer and let's face it you're not getting a lot of value there the difference between the Aussie 10 and 30 year rates is 1% or you can take a more risk and I think you're absolutely right we've seen a lot of managers you know take advantage of that moving into some of that high yield space taking leverage positions in there and trying to capture a higher rate of return as markets normalize and we start to see you know interest rates drift higher especially the US benchmark rates you know that starts to be more challenging and I think you'll start to see a lot of that online if everyone's looking for the exit door at the same time then you're certainly going to see some volatility in credit spreads and you know we saw them get us as high as about 180 basis points even just a year ago when we had that volatility off the back of that first tightening yeah Simon thanks for the for the information I was good to talk have a good day have a good day thanks I'm Michelle they're joining us from Fig just to learn