 Hey everyone, Lee Lowell here from smartoptionseller.com. How's everyone doing today? It's Saturday December 17th, 2022 We're back for another edition of the Saturday synopsis. What do we do here in these free YouTube videos? Well as the Title says what's the markets next move? We're here in Saturday synopsis to try to figure out what's been happening in the stock market And where it may be headed next For us as option traders and maybe you as an option trader as well one of the most important things In figuring out whether you're gonna be profitable or not as an options trader is Figuring out where the stock may or may not move to in the future as you are aware as an options trader They all have an expiration date. So if the stock doesn't make the move needed by the expiration date You will end up with a losing trade now. I will say as an option seller Picking the stock's correct direction is not always needed to have a profitable trade So that is really important. We as option sellers. We try to figure out where the stock is not going to go and it's much easier to be Successful with options trading when the stock doesn't go Where it needs to go, I know that sounds weird But we're always trying to figure out where the stock isn't going to go and and in that case you have a much wider Profitability range or probability range to be successful as an option seller The stock can move up can move down can move sideways and you can still be profitable So in the Saturday synopsis, we will try to figure out and we will look at charts We will look at charts of indexes and charts of stocks to try to figure out what the stock markets next move is and Pinpoint some stocks that may be Ready for certain option trades. We yet we at the op a smart option seller We sell naked put options and we sell put option spreads put option credit spreads So those are mostly bullish to neutral type of directional types of option trades And so we look for the stocks to tell us, you know when it's time to get in and out of a trade So this is what we do here with at the Saturday synopsis. We try to figure out what the stock market's next move is so let's just jump right in and See what's happening and before we do that Let me just go to our website here real quick because I want to make sure you guys get our free report We are as I said put option sellers and If you go to our website smart option seller calm click on the put selling basics link right here This is the part of our website where I have my free report put selling basics And if you want to get a free copy all you have to do is Put in your name and email address in this little form here and all of our all over our website We have this form as well. So if you're looking around the website, you can always fill it out We will send you an email with a link to the free copy of the put selling basics That's what it's called. You can see in this little picture here put selling basics free report that I wrote So if you're interested in selling put options or you're interested in learning about what put songs all about and why we love it so much Fill it out and and go here and as we're talking about it our services tab right here We have our two newsletters right here and our one-on-one coaching sessions that that help newcomers Get a step up in their options trading game. All right So that's that let's go right into the charts and talk about what the stock market's next move Maybe and what's been happening recently? We always look at the S&P 500 first as Represented by the SPY the spy. This is the exchange-traded fund for the SP 500. It's one of the most widely traded ETFs out there If you've been with us for a while, you know, this is what we do We always look at the charts what you see on your screen here Is a daily bar chart an open high low close bar chart of whatever stock or index we're looking at? It's got about a two-year look back period real estate on my chart here Obviously, you can see some lines here. I try to keep my charts pretty simple I have three moving averages that I use I have a 20 day 50 day 200 day all simple moving averages And those are very widely followed types of moving averages. You can see the lines here We got this is the 200 day moving averages this this one here. We've got a blue 20 day moving average which is Here you can see it and then the 50 day is this one and down here is the only other technical indicator that I use Which is the RSI. It's 14 day look back period the RSI indicator It's an oscillator that moves, you know from overbought to oversold levels Here's the 80 level here and the 20 level here as the overbought and oversold Thresholds and that's pretty much all I use now. I will draw patterns. You will see a lot of patterns on my charts mostly channels these these Lines here that signify a channel you connect to hot the highs of the the stock and the lows of the stock and it creates a channel just tells you which way a stock is moving and It will continue on in that direction until something pushes it in the other direction So obviously you can see the market's moving up and now the market's moving down goes up down So what we've been talking about here over Basically all of 2022 is how much the market has been going down back here January 2022 and it's been just about a whole year now The market has just been in this downtrend. Yep We have some fits and starts ups and downs, but overall the trend is down now if we want to draw line just to kind of see the overall trend of the market throughout the year you can see that it's just basically been down and 2022 has not been a great year for the bulls Yes, we have these these rallies back, but they kept getting sold up rally sell rally And here just recently we've had another Resistance level that has knocked the market back down. So let's talk about what's been going on recently 390 was my level in the sand for the Support area on the SP 500 or 3900 depending on what you're looking at the index itself is 10 times greater than the SP y here so Just this past week we had on Tuesday the cpi data, which is the consumer price index It's just it's our basically it's basically our our number that tells us how inflation has been going in the united states And the numbers came down a little bit. And so you can see this move right here This one day. This was Tuesday the market had a nice pop up to the 410 level And unfortunately on wednesday this week After the cpi data, we had the federal reserve meeting and they were giving us their latest interest rate Level along with Jerome Powell who's the chairman of the fed his speech after that And obviously you can see after tuesday the market just has collapsed back down and finished 383 383 dollars on the sp1 So a couple things here that of note is that a The federal reserve although they did raise interest rates not as high as they've been we've been getting 75 basis point interest rate Rises this one was a 50 basis point rise. So it was a lower amount But the speech that Powell gave Was more on the we're still not we're still concerned about inflation So we're we're going to be a little bit more aggressive than I think the market was hoping for I think the market was hoping for a softer stance. Yes, we're going to pull back on interest rates and inflation is Starting to come down. Everything's looking better the fed Jerome Powell really didn't give us that kind of Feeling so the market just has dropped So after tuesday, wednesday so wednesday thursday friday three days wednesday thursday friday the market just came down And fell through my 390 line in the sand here to close at 383 on friday yesterday December 16th It's unfortunate You know because I was feeling pretty good towards, uh, you know the early part of december It was hanging above that 390 level going up hit that 410 right here And then the market just crept back down. So now we are back in this general long Down trending channel. You can see we tried to pop above it. That was our last gasp right there hoping to continue But you know Jerome Powell put put, uh You know, he was the party pooper and put us right back down into this channel here So where is the market headed? What's going to happen now? Well, here is the 50 day moving average this line right here And we can see that the market closed below it Here's a little dash mark on the right side of the bar right here That's where the market closed closing prices are very important because it can show momentum for You know possibly the next day and it closed below the 50 day moving average So really the next line in the sand is he is it's what looks like it's got You know all this movement all this area down here to come to this next level Which is a little bit above 360 which was sort of a pivot point in the past And obviously our low here around 348 dollars do not want to see it go all the way back down there but You know that could be the momentum At least for next week. We probably can see some follow through and come back down to more selling Unfortunate unfortunate for the bulls unfortunate for us as put option sells and put option credit spread Sellers where we want the market to be more bullish to neutral That it kind of puts a damper on us putting out new trades now For all of 2022 when the market's telling us it wants to go down We've been taking lesser and lesser trades in our services because the market's not showing us bullish patterns 2022 has been the year that we've taken the least amount of trades in our services since we Started back in 2017 And because that's The market is telling us It's not time to get into new trades. It's going down So we follow what the market does and let's let it tell us when it's time to get into new trades now We on this swing high on this swing up. I should say the last month or two We had gotten into some new trades which Some that we're still in and some we've already taken profits on So that's a good thing about you know option trades were Shorter term in nature, you know one to three months out in time. We can get out for profits Even if the market moves against us So but still we're taking lighter amount of trades here. Anyway, so the assessment is for the sp500 You know This week was not a good week put us back into this Solidly in the downtrend here. So it looks like we may have some follow through with it for next week. Let's look at the triple cues for the nasdaq and We can see that same pattern last couple days of this week was down Here's the lines in the sand around the 270 level 260 level for this is the this is the triple cues Let's bring this over here. We so we can see what we're talking about here Same thing came down. Here's the support. So momentum for next week probably going to come down. Let's look at the dow Jones The dow has been the strongest of these three major indexes Right here was Tuesday as well popped above this resistance line right in the three low 340 range And and and it got above the prior high here in the middle of august So things were looking good right around here and then obviously this week as well We have some confluence here. We've got the 200 day and the 50 day moving average Kind of converging. So the market did stop right above those two levels So maybe maybe we might get some if there's some some good news coming out next week for whatever maybe Maybe we'll be able to bounce but the dow had been the strongest got hit hard this week Along with the other indexes. So let's take a look at some individual stocks. See what's going on there And try to get an assessment and see if there's any bright spots out there Let's we always look at some of the bigger names because those are the most Popular I don't have time to go through every single one, but we look at popular names here We got apple apple Everybody knows apple. There's billions and billions of iPhones and iPads and mac computers owned around the world Incredible company, but obviously, you know, it gets sold off too Here is apple the line in the sand this here is the support You can see the line that I drew drew this many weeks and months ago right here right around, you know 135 134 and a half seemed to be that level And the market brought apple down below You can see the little teeny dash mark on the right side of this bar right here closed below the support right around 135 was the support So, um, there may be momentum next week can really knock it back down. Where is that next support for apple? All the way down here is the next line of support Probably, uh, if it doesn't hit this this low right here right below 130 this this guy this day right here Was in june So that's about 128 129 and then beyond that we have this support area right here probably around 122 123 So when you're looking for your next area of support, you have to look back to where the support was in the past and this was june of june july of 2021 So we're here the next real support Would be right here this low and if it gets beyond that then we go back to here So, uh, I would really like to see it bounce, you know, we're on this support line You know here is support it bounced here bounced here here here will it bounce here? That's what these support lines do they kind of hold the selling And it leads to buying but if the selling's too strong and it goes through then you have to look at these prior past Levels as well. So, you know, everything's coming off You know, the wednesday thursday friday this past week was it was not fun was not great. Everything's been selling off So that's apple keep an eye on the 135 level see if that'll bounce for next week We'll look at tesla You know, I've talked about tesla so much. I'm not a fan of tesla. I don't we don't make trades in tesla Elon musk who knows what he's doing over there at twitter, but obviously tesla shares are taking a beating because of it Has fallen greatly below this prior support area. It's now at the 150 level It hasn't been that low since we got to go back Let's go back to the let's look at the weekly chart here This is a weekly chart So the last time tesla was at 150 this is post split now Was what's the date here? This was November of 2020 so a little over two years ago was the last time it was here. Here was a an area of Um support congestion. Let's draw this so you can see this little we can draw a little triangle here That's called the congestion pattern And that happens when the price action gets tighter and tighter tighter until it just explodes one way or the other Out of the apex of the triangle and obviously it went higher And it kept going higher. So now it's come back down and here is probably the next error support right around here, which is Maybe 135 dollars a share or so So keep an eye on tesla. I mean it's still going down Um, you know, it's probably going to find some support as I said probably around that 135 level if it keeps going down So that's tesla Let's see what other stocks we have we can look at amazon Look at some of the bigger names here amazon has greatly fallen through Where's my daily chart here? Okay, so amazon's fallen through the support Right up right around a hundred dollars a share here was the line see all the support You can find the support where where a stock or index bounces a number of times So you can see the number of times it bounced at the hundred level came up and then it was kind of Trading around it trying to find some footing, but it had succumbed and now it's at 87 86 dollars a share Where is the next level of support for amazon? Let's go back to the weekly here So it's it's right on support. There was a lot of action here in the past. This was in 2019 all of 2019 right here Right, it's right at that level. So let's draw a line here and just kind of you know We can just kind of put this on the chart. I'm going to move this over here Hang on. Let's do that again I'm going to move this over put some support line here and see if that'll hold For the next leg down Okay, so we'll go back to the daily chart So on the daily chart that supports, you know mid 80s as possible next support for amazon You can see here here's amazon. I just want to show you the symbol we're looking at So everything's looking kind of weak. Let's go back to our chart here Microsoft as well Had been in the long down channel Down word channel got into this upward channel, but you can see it has broken Down and below the upward channel here. So Um, you know, everything's moving lower at the moment in time. Unfortunately Intel Still down at lows nike Uh had been moving up pretty good had this nice uptrend here caught the here's the 200 day moving average caught the resistance right here And started to move lower Let's see if we can find anything AMD I always talk about AMD the chip stocks Was finding some support here and now it's you know turn lower again I mean it got hit this week, but not too bad We had a position on AMD. We we sold the naked put that we Took off our profit this week even though the mark was coming off. We were still able to make a profit on that So we got out of that trade but still in the the long downward trending channel here Chip stocks we can look at micron It's part of that As well, you can see Down trending channels trying to find some sideways support here So micron and um Nvidia these are the biggies Nvidia was also in this down trending channel But look at this that had a nice little up move here But caught the caught the 200 day moving average as well So we can also draw a little channel here just to just to show us You know what had been going on channels kind of help you see which way the market's moving And where it might be breaking out below or above And so it's it's kind of hanging in there. So everything's on the defensive this week apple amazon netflix We had a position on netflix We sold a put option credit spread on netflix, which we took profits on this week as well Caught it at the highs we got out For a decent gain on that but also netflix This week you can see Got hit as well, but still sort of still in this sort of uptrend here Which is good. We can kind of draw a line here. So we want to see netflix continue to maybe Catch a bounce here. Here's a 50 day moving average right here So we want to see it catch a bounce and move higher next week. Will there be a catalyst? You know coming into the end of the year late december holidays, you know market slows down Not a lot of activity not a lot of government reports anymore towards the end of the year So there may just be some sideways action to lower path of lease resistance possibly lower now Until we turn the calendar over to january. Let's see what other stocks we have Walmart also a favorite of mine got hit pretty good this week Finding possible support right here in the 50 day moving average Let's see what other stocks we have here. Let's move that up there Disney Talk about these stalwart companies disney wal-mart nike You know these stocks are going to go up in the long run. We just have to get through This nastiness for now Disney coming back down to the lows here. This was you know mid 80s Got hit this week. So if you love disney and and you're looking to hold for a long time You know, we haven't seen these levels hold down here In a while now the covet low was around $80 a share back in march of 2020 It had the it has here's the support line we drew right around $80 So maybe if you're holding out for 80 and it has confluence with the 200 day the up sloping 200 day moving average So disney, you know $80 could be that great support area for disney potential. These aren't trade recommendations by any means This is just what i'm seeing on the charts So if your goal is to buy some disney, you know, if it gets down to the 80 level and holds You know, that might be your opportunity to scale into some shares there or however you may want to play it So that's disney Um That let's go back to the daily chart. We looked at tesla now. Let's look look at some of the The healthcare stocks which have have done pretty well healthcare energy. So this is elie lily Here's a symbol lly elie lily nice Slow uptrending chart, you know not caught up in all the down moves every other chart index is down move Elie lily moving higher throughout the last two years Bristol mires, this is bmy Also, it's had an up move most of the year, you know, some fits and starts but overall going up merc You can see the symbols over here top left merc also going up up up up and johnson and johnson Kind of flat line for most of the years, but but not really caught in the down move So the healthcare industry has been strong pharma pharmaceuticals You can always get in all of those with the xlv the healthcare Etf as you can see it's been mostly sideways It's been mostly sideways, but the last couple months has had this nice uptrend here So you decide whether you want some individual stocks or the the etf as a whole Energy as we know here's x on mobile energy has been going up most of the year x on mobile xom is the symbol we'll look at chevron Another oil company here is the symbol cvx chevron going up and then the utility industry We talk about con Edison consolidated Edison. Here's the symbol ed Going up. We went when a utility company like this gets hit hard like that quickly You have to take notice and you got to get into the trade when it got oversold on the r side This is when I got into some shares here Southern company s o is the symbol same thing just like Consolidated as in got hit really hard got oversold on the r side chance to jump in We sold some put options on s o You know down in this range and it's been working out for us trying to take profits on that position as well So you have to have to look at the charts have to see which stocks are Bucking that downtrend and moving higher over time Let's see what else we have Kellogg Verizon Almost decided to get into Verizon this week, but still held off. I do like Verizon But not time to get into that trade yet paypal still scraping along the lows Square its partner in the online Uh payment sector Just two different companies not partners, but in that same sector scraping along the lows cosco Let's look at cosco. I guess I had drawn this So we had drawn this congestion pattern this triangle I was getting tighter and tighter looks like it's breaking out to the downside And so You know here's the next support this day right here and then the last support will be here If it continues to go lower So once the congestion pattern starts to break to one side either higher or lower It will continue in that direction for a period of time until You know something comes along and turns it around So cosco looking a little weak right now of mcdonald's Has been strong You know Mostly upwards with the sideways slant Pepsi I also want to show you these are great dividend paying companies You know one thing that helps you as stocks go lower in price They have the dividend payments to kind of offset that Downward actual but you know you get paid to hold these stocks It won't make up for all the the down moves But at least the dividend payments can help buffer some of that look at pepsi nice Just this nice slow up move throughout the whole year. Yeah, it has some down moves But still overall bottom left top right still moving up You know you look for these great dividend paying companies If you're going to invest for the long run 3m minnesota mining let's take a look at A black and decker. This is stanley black and decker. I'll show you the symbol here Um, let's open up the chart swk another great dividend long-term dividend payer We've taken a put sell position On this company right now. Uh, it's you know, it's looks like it's flat lined here So sideways action is fine. Um, you know, that's also a good thing when you're selling options Sideways action is good because the the time decay feature of options works in your favor as an option seller What does that mean? When we when you sell an option versus buying an option That option value will decay No matter what's happening with the stock Okay, every option has an expiration date as the option moves towards that expiration date It starts to shed a little bit of its value each day regardless of what else is happening So if the stock is moving sideways that option contract is decaying in price And for an option seller, that's a good thing because that means eventually you can buy that option back at a cheaper price And lock in your profit. So that's why we like to sell put options Home depot and lows we'll take a look at that. We also took a position in lows This is home depot has this nice little up move here. Uh lows Here's a symbol l o w Um, you know upwards to sideways action. We we sold the put option credit spread on lows So we're waiting for that thing to work on our favor And here's warren buffett Berkshire hathaway class b shares here it is brk dot b And depending on what um chart system you use it's it's either a dot b or slash b Brkb means the class b shares trading right closed right at 300 a share yesterday So this is warren buffett. This is his fund that he runs One of the greatest investors of all time. We can go back to our website here um, if you look In our services tab and click on the shop link right here Uh, here's a report that I wrote uh about warren buffett and another different options trading strategy That you can piggyback warren buffett and all his stock picks Um for a different way than just buying all the shares of stock It's an option trading strategy something different than what we talk about here So if you're interested just click on this picture here, it'll bring you to the report that I wrote Let's go back to the charts here. So that's warren buffett Uh, you know, even he gets caught up in down moves, you know, no one's immune But he's been doing it for a long long time. He's been very successful. Here's facebook You know kind of scraping along the lows ibm got hit this week a little bit as well But look at this nice up move on ibm But got hit these last couple days. You can see how fast, you know, stock was, you know, we talk about the Stocks take the stairs up and the elevator down Meaning that it it slowly moves up and then when it gets hit it gets hit hard and fast the elevator down So ibm got hit a little bit this week Google kind of scraping along the lows What else? We have clarax We talked about clarax too was making this Up move and then the flat top so it had the up move with the flat top resistance here It was waiting for it to break out Which it did you can see it kind of broke above 150 a number of times and then this week it got knocked back down But it has the 50 day and the 200 day moving average converging right here right around 142 and a half So if it finds support that's where it's going to bounce and hopefully we'll see it go higher from there So that's clarax. This is colgate palm olive Nice little up move here, you know, you like I said, you can draw the channels just connect some of the tops Do it like this connect some of the bottoms do it like that You can see where the next support and or resistance area may lie now you can see it bounces So had some resistance here So maybe this will be the support area and it'll bounce and continue on in that upward trajectory within the channel You can see, you know, if you were going to buy clarax I mean colgate palm olive, you know, maybe this is the area where you might want to step in and buy a few shares It's coming down to the bottom of the channel You've got the 200 day moving average right here at the bottom of the channel as well looking like right around 76 78 76 to 77 Dollars a share right here. So if you're looking to buy some shares, you know, maybe that's where you step in See if it bounces if it if it drops through You know, then you may hold off or you may not buy as many shares So keep an eye and where it bounces within those channels. That's why we use the channels Coca-Cola one of our favorites as well As it had the nice up move off the oversold areas right here It's a great area to buy some shares, right, you know, you got oversold rsi And the bounce so coca-cola You know, great dividend paying company that you hold on for a long time. That's just what you do And we looked at connet and southern. So that's it. That's pretty much all we've got, you know, this is my process this is what I do All day long I look at the charts waiting for those areas of potential bottoming patterns Bounces and then we jump in on naked put sells and selling put option credit spreads. So that's that for this week Let's go back to the SPY just kind of sum up for what we're seeing possibly for next week You can see the down trending channel SPY is back in it back in the middle. Unfortunately, unless you're a bear, you're loving it So the momentum may carry it down a little bit lower next week, you know, the next line in the sand is 360 Here's the support line So the bears may be gunning for that, you know, when we have get towards the holidays end of the year these moves can be Very erratic and exacerbated because there's less volume when there's less volume You can have these violent moves. So we may see the push lower Don't want to see it But it may happen And hopefully it'll bounce unless we get some major major bullish news next week, which I don't see that coming out of the blue Uh, I think the path of least resistance is either sideways to continue to slowly drip lower Unfortunately, all right. So that's all for me today. That's all we got here on this Saturday synopsis I hope this is giving you some good information Just a way to look at charts as I said as option traders You're you know, one of the most important decisions for you is to try to figure out, you know Which way the stock may or may not be headed and then you make your option trade You can't just blindly trade options without knowing, you know, what the stock may be doing So, um, please subscribe to this channel If you'd like hit that red subscribe button in the bottom right hand corner of the video Leave me a comment below. Give me a thumbs up if this has been helpful to you Send me an email to my website. I love hearing from you. I'll always answer your emails And, um, you know, just let me know what you're thinking or, you know, what what kind of options trading questions you have All right, so that's all for me today. I hope everyone has a great weekend and a great trading week ahead Coming into those holidays. So, um, things hopefully, you know, things slow down You can take a little breather towards the end of the year. Um, Have a good weekend everyone. This is lilo signing off