 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network It is Thursday kind of at least in spirit Which means it is our smorgasbord day here on covering the spread and recording this a Wednesday night So we're talking about some MLB opening money lines before Thursday and talking about some NASCAR a little indulgence there If you don't want the NASCAR part Don't worry It'll be at the end of the show if you want just the NASCAR part listen to this after the Thursday games have started Check out the timestamp over on numberfire.com that will tell you where the NASCAR discussion begins Breaking down both cup series and exceed these series at Watkins Glen for this week So let's dive on and get you said for the rest of this week This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network. My name is Jim saw this I am a senior writer and analyst for numberfire.com here to break down Thursday And they'll be money lines and NASCAR for this week at Watkins Glen quick scheduling note for today As mentioned, I'm recording this on Wednesday night So I'll put up on the podcast feed event as well video will be delayed So if you're watching on the Fandall YouTube page apologies that it is delayed there, but working with constraints I wish I could do this in the evening every night to get you the opening MLB lines Where they are as opposed to where they're at in the morning, but schedule constraints and such and such I just have a bachelor party. I'm leaving for on Thursday morning. It's no time to record there Tom Beck you will be with you on Friday filling in from easy to break down some MLB stuff and they'll be props for Friday's slate and then talk about some NFL stuff as well You can find Tom on Twitter at DFS underscore Tom But the easier way to get the show should fall Tom But also easier way to get that show is by subscribing to covering this spread Wherever you get your podcast if you want some college football talk We talked to dr. Ed Feng on Wednesday to get his thoughts on some wind totals across the Big 10 and the sec Find that here in the same feed as well. I'll be back with you once again on Monday Also a short week for me next week. I'll be in Ireland for the Northwestern Nebraska game So short week this weekend next week, but still have in Tom Beck you in to fill in those days for me We'll break down the Thursday MLB money lines in just one second The first NFL kickoff is still a few weeks away But you can get in on the action now on Fandall sportsbook with their NFL super wind bonus right now Anyone who places at least a $50 Super Bowl winner bet will get $5 back for each win Their team has during the regular season There are also a ton of other futures markets available like team win totals division winners player props and so much more There's no better place to get ready for the football season man on Fandall America's number one sportsbook an official sports betting partner of the NFL must be 21 plus and president select states only Bonus issued is non-withdrawable free bets that expire seven days after a seat max free bet $50 Restrictions apply see terms at sportsbook.fandall.com gambling problem call 1 800 gambler or visit fandall.com Slash rg in arizona 180 next step or text next step to 5 3 3 4 2 in connecticut 1 8 8 8 7 8 9 7 7 7 7 7 Or visit ccpg.org slash chat in indiana 1 809 with it in louisiana 1 8 7 7 7 7 0 stop in new york 1 8 7 7 8 hope and wire text open y in tennessee call the red line at 1 8 8 9 9 7 8 9 In wyoming 1 800 5 2 2 4 700 or in west virginia 1 800 gambler dot net Let's dig into this thursday slate here from major league baseball and Looking at the games currently posted only one spot showing value for some me for me in the money line And that is going to be the rangers their money line is currently minus 184 Over at fandall sportsbook. I've got them at uh 69 to win this game. They're implied odd 65 percent so I'm going to mention what my numbers say and case numbers do move I have them at 69 percent and I do want to mention like There is a possibility numbers Move against me because I'm posting this pretty early and stuff will be more likely to move the wrong direction here Let's say you pull open fandall you just check out this podcast thursday and you see that suddenly the rangers are Minus 166 as opposed to minus 184 that could mean that i've got a bigger edge compared to my numbers But it also means i'm going against what smart people are betting on so I would say proceed with caution in those situations if the number gets worse I would You know listen to the the analysis I give listen to the rationale behind it if you agree and you think that the Way the number has moved is incorrect feel free to dive in I I've got my numbers here for a reason but Just proceed with caution if the numbers do move against me between when I post this and When you're listening and trying to bet this one so again 69 is what my numbers say about the ranges here versus the a's I am good lane the minus 184 here personally But I do think you could go towards the run line, which is plus 106 at minus 105 The reason I am okay with this one is that I like both aspects of this matchup dain dunning's velocity is back up To the rangers he has not been lights out despite the velo re-increase But he has been good enough to top an offense of this caliber Rangers are facing zack loge who is a lefty and the rangers pretty good against lefties Which to me is a surprise at least I didn't peg them as being a team that would be good versus lefties But 119 wrc plus for them against lefties a 199 iso on their current active roster Loge is a guy who struggled both in the minors and the majors. So I think this rangers offense Should be able to get him I think dain dunning should be good enough to hold the athletics offense and check So as we've discussed here on the show typically I'm more of a money line guy. I have a model for that I do not have a model for run lines. I get very uncomfortable betting into markets where I don't have my own numbers, but here I am okay Going at plus 106 at minus one and a half on the rangers run line I also am okay with the money line at minus 184 down to minus 200 or so I think is uh is enough wiggle room between what my numbers have and what the market would say To feel good about the rangers in this spot So pick your poison if you want to go the run line versus money line But overall the rangers a team a bit undervalued based on my numbers for today As far as strikeout props go the first guy i'm going to turn to tomorrow is adam wainwright Not a big strikeout guy, but he's facing the rockies I'm looking here because wainwright is going super super deep into games specifically with just massive pitch counts I got him projected for 105 tonight, which I don't typically do. I think that's actually the most I've had a guy projected at this entire year It's a big number But wainwright just going deep in games the rockies strikeout rate versus righties has started to creep up So I have wainwright projected at 5.4 strikeouts for tonight If they hang four and a half as being the number for today and I can get Minus 150 or better on the over. I'm probably going to take it I wouldn't be shocked if they put us at five and a half here given that I have him at 5.4 It's the rockies people tend to like wainwright. He's at home I wouldn't be surprised at all if that number is at five and a half But I do want to check on wainwright to see if we get a four and a half for him there I'm just going to read through a couple other strikeout projections I have here just in case these wind up being useful for you I didn't grade out every game just because I'm not really sure A lot of starters have not been announced yet So didn't want to go the game that may change you darvish 8.02 for me. I have corbin birds 7.11 Dane dunning is at 5.16 lewis garcia 6.17 Lucas giolito 5.57 those can be kind of your guides there. I will say I got darvish 8.02 There's a good chance he opens at six at six and a half as his strikeout prop for tonight That does not mean automatic over because there are a lot of paths to unders Let's say darvish is at six and a half 8.02 strikeout projection I have his over odds at six and a half at 61.5 percent So Kind of use your best judgment on that Obviously, even if I have a strikeout projection above the number that does not mean they're meeting expectations to go over It just means they probably got some upside. So be cautious there again darvish 8.02 and other one that was relatively high for today is Corbin burr and 7.11 So check out those see if you can find some Some interesting numbers, but again way right the first gal look towards because I do have my 5.4 for today That's all we got on the baseball side of things. Let's go to nascar and break down walkkins glenn We got both the cup series and the xfinity series at walkins glenn for this weekend On the cup side of things. I'm not showing a kind of value as of right now The one right outright that is up that I do like is michael mcdowell. He's 30 to 1 twin at fan duel, but shop around because You can get him longer. He's 40 to 1 at redacted different sports book But also 35 to 1. I got him here at rhodialin sports book would use the caesars lines You can get them at the longer numbers. So shop around get the best line Even if you have just 30 to 1 on mcdowell, my numbers are still showing value They were probably isn't too high if i'm higher than the lowest number I'm probably too high, but My numbers like mcdowell because he has been a beast on road courses this year he said three straight top 10 average running positions, which is awesome and That's why i'm on him the counter to liking mcdowell would be that walkins glenn is more of an equipment heavy track It's why mcdowell has not done well here historically despite being a very good road course racer But you have to remember that this is a different era when we've had previously The gap between the front guys and the guys like mcdowell in terms of equipment is less now than it was in the past I think mcdowell can't hang here and I think he can win this race and he hasn't sent it to Given his spot in the points position. So whether you get dowell 30 to 1 35 40. I'm showing value again Please please please get the best number you can But if you only bet fan will for whatever reason 30 to 1 still long enough for me to buy in and be okay With mcdowell He will be the first guy I turn to based on the current odds if you can find chris busher I've seen him 25 to 1 at redacted, but uh check that out if you can get busher at 25 to 1 I would take that as well. Uh, I fan to I think he's 18 to 1 that's a bit shorter But if you can get busher 25 to 1 that'd be my favorite If not, I would go mcdowell at 30 to 1 35 40 whatever it may be One guy I'm very close to showing value on is christopher bell He is the one toyota who has shown any speed on a road course this year. That was mostly an indy he had a seventh place average running position in that race and It's possible that bell in his team Figure something out there and if he figures something out you think that would translate to the other toyota as well I've got bell at 5.4 to win this race His implied odds at 18 to 1 are 5.3 percent If you can get him longer than 18 to 1 I would probably bite now and not take the risk that he Qualifies well on saturday and all the value dries up. So if you get bell 20 to 1 somewhere in there I would buy in I think that's a really good spot If not, I would check back after practice and qualify and see if he You know see what he does there See what the number is I am super receptive to bell this week based on the speed He showed an indy really good deviation for toad. I'm hoping that they Put that same setup configuration whatever it may be on bush hamlin, etc, etc But bell right now 5.4 percent for me to win so 20 to 1 or longer I'll buy in busher. I'll buy in at 25 daniel swarez. I'd buy in 16 or so I'd buy in and him he's 12 to 1 a fan a little bit too short for me But those are the primary guys I've been looking to so again the bite point is swarez 16 busher 25 I took him at 22 actually but he's 18 a fandwall McDowell 30 or longer and then Bell 20 to 1 or longer the spots I buy in for those guys The non outright market is pretty tough not much. I like right now. It's a it's a higher hold markets That's not a huge surprise not massively different than what we usually see But the one guy don't mind is joey hand at 18 to 1 to finish top 10 I have him above that though. He was 20 to 1 earlier on today Hand is good speed in road courses So I think that that's why I'm receptive to this. You have really good speed at sonoma Solid at kota as well and road america. That's why I'm Interested the reason I'm not banging the table for hand despite the fact my model shows He's above 10. I'll say that I'm embarrassed by that But I'll say it he's above 10 for me the reason I'm not like rushing despite showing about 6 5 or 6 percentage points of value is that the rick where racing cars Are at more risk of not keeping up at this track. I mentioned McDowell, you know equipment delta is lower The equipment delta is still pretty high for rick where racing So I did do it at 20 to 1 I would do it at 18 to 1 but those factors keep me from getting overly jazzed about it so hand where he currently sits okay with me, but I'm not rushing to get him at 18 to 1 to finish top 10 On the obscenity side. It's a loaded field this week. We have the usuals AJ almond ninger tie gibbs, but also kyle arson william byron ross chastain cold custer It's gonna be a lot of fun from a racing perspective Fandall does not have odds up yet, but I can base, you know some analysis on odds at other sites It might be tough to squeeze value Out of this race the top five guys for me are larson almond ninger gibbs byron and chastain Those guys account for 64 of the win odds in my simulations They're implied odds at the other sports books are 94.3. Oh boy That means i'm betting on someone to beat all those guys and that's pretty rough I'm the closest to showing value on ross chastain. He is 9.7 for me versus 10 implied So if you can get chastain 11 to 1 or longer, I would buy in otherwise I would Hope for something else to pop up chastain In that that car not super competitive in india. I think that's kind of the biggest red flag for me but Really good talents. Um, that may be able to overcome the equipment, but That's why i'm not higher as the equipment 9.7 from me on ross chastain If you can't get chastain at 11 to 1 or longer I probably would hope that a book hangs a long number on austin hill He's 6.5 to win for me That's a pretty high number and you know, it might be too high because there are a lot of guys he has to beat but I'm receptive to him. I did bet him at indy did not work out But he's typically super fast on these road courses I think for hill so i'm at 6.5 percent Which means I would show value around 15 to 1 or so To account for the fact that he has a lot of guys he has to beat. I might hold out until he gets to 20 if you can give me hill at 20 to 1 I would probably bite at that point because I believe so much in his talent on road courses 20 to 1 on hill I'd buy in 11 to 1 on chastain I buy in but Honestly, there's a good chance I wind up just sitting this one out because it's a super top heavy field I can't show value in those top guys. So Might wind up sitting it out. We'll see we'll buy back in on xinity at de tona But otherwise, uh, we'll hope uh for some longer odds Not a chastain or hill for this week. That's all we got here for today on covering the spread again Tom becky I will be with you tomorrow to talk some nlb and some nfl find tom on twitter at dfs underscore tom And also just make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcasts I'll be out for this weekend So not available for a lot of questions But if you got them and I have to be around you can hit me up on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a N n e s you can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast big Thank you to everyone for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with both your mlb and your nascar bets And we'll talk to you. I'll talk to you once again next week tom. We'll talk to you tomorrow This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network