 Hi there. I'm Anthony Chung and I'm the head of market analysis here at Amplify Trading. Every weekday morning I'll deliver a fundamental rundown ahead of the European Open. But if you subscribe to the channel, you'll also get content from the rest of the team. So, let's begin. Okay. Good morning, guys. And let's take a look at the markets this morning at the European Open Tuesday, the 15th of September. And it was a relatively quiet day yesterday. All three of the major U.S. indices finishing positive, just over 1%. And continue to claw back then some of the selling pressure that had been seen in prior week gone by, as the general sense seems to be a lot of the press and market kind of talking heads about the kind of healthy nature of a bit of a correction in what otherwise was a fairly one-dimensional rise that we were seeing in markets at the time. Talked about a little bit of normalization in the options market as well. Yesterday, a lot of people saying then that helps to kind of breadth of then the buying that can recommence, given the kind of shakeout that we've had of the stretch positioning before that sell-off. So, overall, there's nothing really too new to mention on that front. I'd say when I'm looking at the major U.S. indices this morning, we continue to remain on the front foot. The NASDAQ futures up about 60. The S&P is up about 20 or 15 at the moment. Coming in the case of the S&P in close proximity to the R1 level, worth keeping an eye on that does mark around yesterday afternoon's high. We've got at 92.5 and 95.25 being the R1. Any further push above there today then would be looking at the broader range that we've been trading over the last three or four sessions, which would be up at 34 or 14 on a continuation of this move. Similarly, with the NASDAQ just coming up to close proximity to that hybrid as well from yesterday. And you can see near-term price activity, a bit of a double top. If I just put on the ellipse through where we were trading at the back end of last week and then in yesterday's session here at 11.349. So, trading just around 25 points or so away from that at the moment. So, generally, positive close on Wall Street, a little bit mixed overnight in Asia. Some Chinese data helping bolstering lights of the Hangsang, though, in Hong Kong. And I'll get into that later in a moment. But otherwise, elsewhere, some general risk appetite, the dollar then weakening in the overnight session. The Dixie's down about two-tenths of 1%. So, consequently, helping support EUR a dollar, which has managed to get its head just above what was the high point from yesterday. And you can see here finding a bit of a platform now to support price. You've got a combination of the R1 with that high from yesterday. And this kind of price breakout that you can see here was when we saw that very soft reference to the Euro. No explicit talking down or drawbinding of the Euro from ECB's Christine Lagarde last week. So, those highs now are with insight. A lot of people were off that mindset. The general kind of nature of the ECB being a little bit behind the curve in terms of their policy adoption following the Fed's move to AIT, opening up the prospect then of potentially a Euro move back up into towards those 120 areas, which has been a catalyst then for them to start kind of voicing concern about the strength of the Euro. So, kind of continue that grind back up towards those levels and a pretty decent area here then, from a technical point of view, at least, to provide perhaps a little bit of support for if all things remain equal as they are at the moment, a continuation of the push-up. And I would be targeting up and around the R2, which does coincide then with around that Lagarde high, which was around 1.1940 looking at the Euro futures here. Euro is up about 26 pips, but cable is flat. As you can see here in the center top chart, hugging around its pivot level at the moment on the up on the north side of that level. But there's obviously some Brexit news I can update you on with the passage of the internal market bill last night, what the next steps are and what does it mean and so on. I'll get into in a moment. Incrued, not too much movement, pretty restricted, I'd say, and it's overall price yesterday and it's just sitting around consolidation of its pivot level on the futures at the moment. This despite then Hurricane Sally still being in observation at the moment. And then the fixed income markets were pretty flat at the moment. No real movement seen in the overnight Asia Pacific session after we did see a bit of a bump up in prices through the US session yesterday. So let me get into some of the headlines then and going to start off with talking about what's dominating quite a lot of the UK press coverage this morning and that is of course the House of Commons passed their internal market bill pretty late last night. I think it was looking at the results coming out must have been about half 10 at night. Feels like we're back in that Brexit Theresa May era again. The internal market bill passed by 340 to 263 in its first main vote allowing it to now go through until the next stages in the parliamentary process starting from today. Only two Tories voted against him for now. Others abstained of the abstained names of significance. Former Chancellor Siji Javid, former Attorney General Jeffrey Cox and Jeremy Wright were part of the abstentions, or abstained I should say. Now the bill passes to its second reading. It will face four more days basically of debate on its fine print a stage of which lawmakers can try to insert revisions that could change the entire meaning of the bill or even kill it if it got as far as that. So if you remember lots of the other procedural votes that we had going through particularly 2019 even 2018 to do with Brexit it's not just one vote and that's it. It basically goes through a number of votes. The government puts it through first. Normally what happened last night and the reason my reaction in market was so tame is that that was very much expected to go through with relative ease given the size of the Tory majority. It's now about the revisions part. It gets a little bit more complicated and then it gets even more complicated then when it starts going down into the next levels where Johnson faces much bigger hurdles when it goes up into the House of Lords from the Commons should it then go through this revision process where Tory grandees including the former leader Michael Howard has denounced the legislation and could delay then its progress further. So it's not so much of a definitive thing, one and done. It's going to be dragged out throughout the rest of the week. I guess we'll know a little bit better where the land lies by the time we get to Friday perhaps but even then it's probably going to spill over into next week. So it's not gone away. The one thing I would say is that it's not really a market sensitive thing right now for sterling currency for trading effects. However if this does turn into a very protracted period of time to go through the various hoops and hurdles here which it normally does take some time then that's kind of eating into the negotiation time with the EU because as long as they're pursuing and talking about this internal market bill, although Johnson's talking about this as an insurance policy which he'd rather not use, he'd rather do a deal with Europe and all of meanwhile Europe are just going to sit on the sidelines. They can't really do anything until the UK sorts his house out first of all. So that of course is quite sensitive because we've already got, I mean it's a month to the day really when there's the tentative kind of soft deadlines that a deal of some sort needs to be concluded essentially so it can be ratified across Europe in time for the transition expiration at the end of the year. So I don't think it would be too much of a concern right now but maybe perhaps as we get towards the end of the week as these individual votes start coming through how much revisions does it go through the more there is the longer it's going to take and then how much can the House of Lords delay proceedings even further, all of this is going to just heat more pressure on the diminishing timeline that is to cut the deal with only four weeks left really to go. I think I'm going to be wrong. We've seen this many times before. Obviously this soft deadline can be moved further out but if we do get to that type of territory all the more reason is probably going to add a negative kind of headwind weight to sterling going forward over the coming weeks. So that was the latest on that side but overall in Asia probably worse warrants mentioning that Chinese retail sales last night came in the first time that they were positive or saw growth for 2020. Chinese retail sales came in at 0.5% year-on-year that was against expectations are basically flat. Industrial production came in at 5.6% year-on-year against expected 5.1. These were both for the month of August so exceeded expectations. Industrial output rebounding due to fiscal stimulus and surprisingly strong exports. As I said overnight I did support some of the local indices Hangsang was higher but also it's worth noting that the Aussie dollar was a little bit firmer so a little bit of crossover generally the Aussie acting as a proxy for economic health in China so that data no doubt probably would have helped but also from Australia you had the RBA minutes and where the Australian central bank said the appreciation of the currency was consistent with higher commodity prices particularly iron ore and they said that there was no or effectively there from the minutes there was no sign of additional policy moves were imminent so no addition or no indication that additional monetary measures are imminent in itself then it's just not feeding into this overall dovish narrative that Mark has been so comfortable with over this kind of recovery a pandemic era that we're in so that in itself being translated into more hawkish reaction in combination with the Chinese data so the Aussies a little bit firmer this morning and we're training up about 34 pips and we're above the R2 in the futures at least for the Aussie this morning on the back of these various different developments. Just going back to the China front obviously these data sets have been pretty decent and as you can see here it just kind of further confirms an economic recovery that's taking place in China as their economy continues to start to further reopening and become more back to where we were back at the beginning of the year prior to the entire situation starting to unfold. A couple of other things to be aware of though and this was one headline and this is an update on the US-China kind of trade situation the Trump administration on Monday shelved plans for a broad import ban on cotton and tomato products from China's Xinjiang region while announcing narrower bans on products from five specific entities. Two people familiar with the Trump administration's internal deliberations said that concerns about the broad orders and their effect on supply chains were raised by officials and China has also agreed to buy increased quantities of US cotton under the phase one of the pre-agreed trade deal and that could be put at risk by US ban on imports. So if you think about what's happened a couple of things here three things really you've got improving economic data happening domestically in China you've got a little bit of reversal from the White House on the potential broad import ban on cotton from a certain area in China and also some hopes of improved relations between Beijing and Washington following signs of a deal on the future for the Chinese app TikTok as well which we've seen with Microsoft and Oracle kind of fighting over that so all of this has led to the Chinese currency hitting its highest level in more than a year overnight and worth keeping in mind then obviously we do monitor the kind of the tension between those two nations is a definable kind of sentiment gauge overall is one of the biggest macro risks generally on a day-to-day basis and at the moment things are relatively I wouldn't say positive but just not negative if that makes sense and that's probably what's helping a little bit of this just ability through a lack of other fundamental catalysts for equity markets just to kind of revert back to course following that correction that we've seen of late. Final things to mention AstraZeneca they have come out and basically said their COVID-19 vaccine trial remains on hold at least till next week in the US as regulators examined the serious side effects suffered by a patient in the UK which we know of now I don't think this is particularly that important all it's basically saying is that in the US while their regulators examine the side effects this is on hold till the week so it's not exactly a super long delay I don't think and I think market prices really tell you what you need to know in terms of any reaction in their price in aftermarket none really and also in terms of the way stock futures are reacting I think the the world's moved on now from where we were in the middle of last week when we saw that initial dip on the actual breaking of the news so a further delay of a couple of days I don't think really moves the needle that much in terms of market expectations about the overall outcome of these stage three clinical trials and then the final thing was Hurricane Sally Shell Chevron Murphy oil other producers have begin shutting in some US Gulf offshore crude and natural natural gas output while at least one refinery temporarily closed its plant ahead of Hurricane Sally it's expected to make landfall on the Mississippi Alabama border late today early tomorrow federal regulators said as of yesterday that 21.4% of the Gulf's oil production was now shut in thus far with around 25.3% of natural gas has been stopped at this price present point in time just given the extremely dangerous and life-threatening storm surge that is expected however I would I would note that the NHC did update about 15 minutes ago for me starting this recording and they did report the hurricane Sally had slightly weakened hurricane force winds and flash flooding though likely along portions of the northern Gulf Coast later oil in itself again with this type of thing I mean we're right in the kind of the hotspot area now as you can see from these graphics and the fact that oil is fairly comfortable with the situation I think really says it all so obviously these weather patterns can be quite erratic can change quite quickly so it's definitely worth being vigilant and monitoring but at this point I don't really see too much of a real big reaction today necessarily happening WTI crude as we can kick off oil prices okay and then just a quick look at the calendar what else have we got today we've just had the UK data out the kind of average earnings in ILO unemployment rate in terms of the average earnings numbers x bonus 0.2% versus expected minus 0.2 the ILO unemployment rate 4.1 in line with expectation expectations of 4.1 so if anything perhaps a touch higher on the earnings side but overall very muted impact seen in the British pound I think that's to be expected from this type of economic data anything pertaining to jobs and pay I think really markets will be a little bit tentative of drawing too many conclusions ahead of what is such a critical period which is October when we're going to see potentially another wave of people being laid off given the expiration of the furlough scheme at the moment adopted by the UK government so I don't think that that data is too much to look at I think more so what's happened overnight if you look at the currency markets is the dollar has resumed quite an aggressive downward trend and we've actually broken the low of yesterday in the Dixie we trained at 90 to 80 or so at the moment so we're down around a quarter percent in the dollar and I'd say that's just generally buoying those major pairs and you're a dollar obviously out performing a little bit because of the additional headwind that sterling is receiving from the ongoing Brexit headlines otherwise moving on you get the German ZEW numbers coming out at 10 o'clock expected to remain relatively steady for the month September from where we're in August so ZEW being the measurement of analysts and economists expectation about the current and six months outlook for the German economy can't really say there's too much really difference between what they're going to have heard or seen in August to what we've had in September going off the general macroeconomic environment at the moment so I wouldn't look for too much reaction out of that then we're going to the afternoon and a couple of interesting US metrics coming out the Empire manufacturing from the States for September you've got US industrial production cap utilization manufacturing production import price index so a couple of interesting data points coming out 130 and 215 London time okay well that is it don't forget to like and subscribe to the channel if you haven't already done so myself and the team will be covering the FMC in full live tomorrow night all you got to do is subscribe hit that bell icon and you'll be notified as soon as we begin otherwise that have a great day any questions just drop a comment happy to help okay guys take care