 Gweldwch. The first item of business today is general questions, and we start with question number one from Bill Bowman. Thank you, Presiding Officer. To ask the Scottish Government what consultation it undertook with HMRC regarding any potential negative impact of diverging tax bans and rates from the rest of the UK. Cabinet Secretary, Derek Mackay. The Scottish Government and HMRC have and continue to work closely to implement the income tax powers devolved in the Scotland Acts 2012 and 2016. The Scottish income tax implementation projects will ensure that HMRC systems will be adapted to accommodate income tax policy, as agreed by the Scottish Parliament. HMRC have been clear that they will be able to implement the Scottish Government's proposed income tax policy proposals for 2018-19. Bill Bowman. As the SNP deputy commons leader Kirsty Blackman pointed out, Scots do not give two hoots about independence. However, they do care about the SNP's new tax bans that could see Scottish pensioners pay hundreds of pounds extra just to access their pension savings. Is the cabinet secretary happy that his budget will reduce the quality of their hard-earned retirement? The Tories were, and we want to talk about the constitution briefly. First of all, they were against devolution, then they were for devolution. They were against tax-raising powers. Now they are for tax-raising powers, but just do not use those tax-raising powers as the current position of the Conservative Party. The budget that I have proposed ensures that Scotland will become the lowest tax part of the United Kingdom for a majority of taxpayers in Scotland, and we will also result in a tax reduction for a majority of taxpayers as well, whilst also raising resources for our valued public services and giving the best deal anywhere in the United Kingdom. In terms of the specifics, it is the case that, in setting out the use of our tax powers that delivers a fairer country, there are some areas such as pension arrangements that we would not have had control over. That remains at Westminster release and interpretation. I make the point that, in designing a system based on a progressive approach, that means that even those who are taking out a lump sum from their pension will also be treated in a fair and progressive fashion. For those pensioners, with that lower amount, we will also enjoy the benefits of a progressive taxation system. Does the cabinet secretary agree that being able to set her own tax bans and rates allows the SNP Government the flexibility to help to protect Scottish public services from damaging Tory cuts to Scotland's budget? At the point of devolution, which Bill Bowman has clearly missed, is that we do what is best to suit Scotland's needs rather than stick with a one-size-fits-all solution, which some Tories would daily love to impose at the behest of their bosses in London, regardless of the adverse impact on Scotland. Kenny Gibson is exactly right. What the Scottish Government is able to do because of the powers that we have under devolution is to take a £211 million real-term cut to our resource budget for £18, £19 and invest in our public services by delivering on the key tests that I set out for income tax and policy, which includes using the system to deliver a more progressive taxation system, protect lower income earners, protect and invest in the economy and also invest in our public services, turning a real-terms reduction at the hands of a right-wing Brexit-mad UK Government into a real-terms growth for Scottish public services. To ask the Scottish Government what its response is to the latest Scottish Fiscal Commission forecast for economic growth. The Scottish Fiscal Commission forecast for economic growth underlines the fundamental strengths in our economy. Economic growth is forecast to continue and employment will rise further, with earnings growth forecast to match that in the UK. However, the forecast also highlights the negative impact that Brexit will have and the challenges that Scotland faces from a declining working-age population. The draft budget sets out a package of measures to support the economy, unlock innovation and drive up productivity. Dean Lockhart, Thank you for that response. Let me remind the cabinet secretary that the Fiscal Commission is forecasting that the economy will grow at less than 1 per cent for each of the next four years, a fraction of the growth that is expected for the rest of the UK. The Fraser Valander has said that such low-trends in economic growth for Scotland have not been witnessed in 60 years. Predictably, the cabinet secretary blames Brexit, but he knows that the economy under the SNP has underperformed for the past decade well before Brexit. My question is this. Given the SNP's abysmal track record and the dire economic outlook, does the cabinet secretary agree with leading organisations across Scotland that it is now time for a change in economic policy, that the SNP's four-eye economic policy is not working and that Scotland needs a new direction in economic policy? I think that the enthusiasm for the Tories is about to dissipate shortly. I point out that Dean Lockhart went straight from the SFC forecast to the FAI forecast. The Fraser Valander Institute forecast for economic growth is far higher than the SFC forecast. For that matter, the EY forecast for Scotland's economy is all higher than the SFC forecast, which arguably has been seen as quite conservative and cautious. I would also gently point out—I do not think that the Scottish Government's interventions on the economy and business are strong, but surely the UK Government has to take some responsibility for the economy. Indeed, it argues that it has overall responsibility for the economy. I would argue that it is the UK economic model that is failing the people of Scotland. Just a few interventions that I propose to make in the budget—extra support for business rates—the most generous package of business rates relief ever. More on innovation, skills and manufacturing, resourcing the building Scotland fund and capitalising the Scottish national investment bank, doubling the support for city deals. All of that is great for Scottish investment, Scottish productivity, Scottish innovation and, of course, all put at threat by the reckless approach of the UK Government when it comes to Brexit and the impact that it will have according to the fiscal commission on Scotland's economy. Ivan McKee, I remind the chamber of my role as parliamentary liaison officer for the economy. The cabinet secretary will be aware that a key reason that the Scottish Fiscal Commission gives for Scotland's low economic growth forecast is as a result of our projected population profile as a consequence of the impact of Brexit on Scotland's economy, in particular given that the fiscal commission's view that Scotland's economy has already grown at capacity and needs more working-age people in order to expand. Does the cabinet secretary agree that the views of the Fiscal Commission are further evidence of the damage that the hard Tory Brexit will do to Scotland's economy? I agree with that. I hear the Conservatives' chortle that no-one else agrees with that. Even wiser Tory ministers are coming to the conclusion that a hard Brexit and a no-deal Brexit may well be profoundly damaging to the UK economy, so, in turn, it will be damaging to Scotland's economy. It is right that the more powers we have, the more we can engage and make the right decisions for Scotland, but specifically in relation to the working-age population, it is true to say that the Fiscal Commission identified that as a major challenge. We can only tackle it properly if we have the powers to do so and the flexibility to rise to that challenge. I point out gently again that many have reported the economic impact of Brexit on Scotland. An economic negative impact of up to £11 billion a year from 2030, impacting on at least 80,000 fewer jobs over the next decade. New information, new analysis from the financial time also shows that the vote to leave the EU is already having an impact on the UK economy at around, surprisingly, £350 million a week. Was not that the figure that the Tories would be investing in the NHS if Brexit had occurred? That is the cost right now of this Brexit mishandling, and we could do so much more if we were not wedded to that UK mismanagement of our economy and those negotiations. Alex Cole-Hamilton, as the cabinet secretary has just articulated, one of the biggest economic issues facing the country is the impact from the UK's withdrawal from the European Union, something that my party still passionately opposes. Does the cabinet secretary agree that as the Scottish Government's existing economic strategy from 2015 is developed and updated, it is essential to take account of and where possible address the new and emerging challenges arising from Brexit as a living document that we must keep revisiting? It is fair commentary to say that, should our economic strategy be developed and continue to evolve in light of events, of course it should. That is why there are so many positive economic interventions in our budget, so that no matter the challenges that are thrown at us, we can invest in the people and the skills of Scotland to grow our economy, tackle productivity and, crucially, in terms of that working-age population issue, be able to have the right tools to ensure that we have that working population that supports our economy as well, and, of course, it will have to adapt in light of circumstances. Adam Tomkins, to ask the Scottish Government for what reason in its draft budget spending on equalities is being increased by 12 per cent. The increase in the equality budget for 2018-19 demonstrates the value that ministers place on creating a fairer Scotland by tackling prejudice and discrimination and supporting a more equal and inclusive society where human rights are central. The Scottish Government is firmly committed to progressing equality as demonstrated through our funding of over 220 separate projects and supporting the ambitions, aims and actions in our race equality action plan, fairer Scotland for disabled people delivery plan and the equally safe strategy. Increased resource for 2018-19 will also support programme for government commitments, legislation and other strategic work, including British Sign Language, social isolation and loneliness and human rights. Adam Tomkins, I thank the cabinet secretary for that answer. At the same time that the equality budget is going up and the cabinet secretary alluded to that in her answer a few minutes ago, the social justice and fairer Scotland budget is being increased fourfold from £7 million to just shy of £28 million. What steps is the cabinet secretary taking to ensure that taxpayers will get value for money and, in particular, that this spending will be effective? I would have thought, given that we are at the start of a new year, that Mr Tomkins and the Tories might have had some cause for reflection. Given continuing Westminster austerity and the threats imposed by Brexit, they would have welcomed the Government's increased commitment to advancing equality and tackling inequality in all its forums. I would have hoped that they would have welcomed the increase in the equality budget and, indeed, the substantial increase in the fairer Scotland budget. I can assure Mr Tomkins that we will, indeed, ensure that maximum value for money is obtained. We have a full range of commitments around the implementation of the British Sign Language, commitments around family reunion crisis grant funding to help to mitigate against some of the disastrous decisions in the UK Government's immigration and asylum process. We want to support civic society to produce a bill of rights on human rights, and we will, in the very near future, be launching our draft consultation on our social isolation and loneliness strategy, and we will, indeed, want to fund actions flowing from that, as well as the implementation of the gender representation of public boards bill and our on-going commitment to our equally safe delivery plan. Pauline McNeill Will the cabinet secretary agree that, to address the gender gap for women and girls in minority ethnic communities, it would be helpful to disaggregate the information so that the data is a bit clearer as to what the priorities should be to tackle gendered race equality in areas such as prejudice-based bullying or under-employment gaps? The Cabinet Secretary for Education and Skills Yes, Presiding Officer, I agree that there is importance for good, accurate, full information. The Government recently published last year our quality evidence strategy, which is about looking in particular at our priorities around race equality, but also the issues of intersectionality and understanding issues in greater depth, particularly around women and girls, and the advisory group on women and girls will be particularly interested in that area. If there are specific gaps in information that Ms McNeill would wish to correspond or meet with me about, I would be happy to do so. We have a good record on gathering evidence and pursuing the links between evidence policy and budgetary spend, but we want to continue to evolve our process for maximum impact. To ask the Scottish Government how many probationer teachers there will be in the academic year 1819. The application process for probationer teachers for the academic year 2018-19 is still on-going. The total number of applications will be known in March. Teacher recruitment poses a challenge to many remote and rural areas, including my constituency of Caithness, Sutherland and Ross. Can you tell me what the Scottish Government is doing to ensure that trainee teachers are allocated to those areas during their probation period and what guidance and training is given to the schools to ensure that they are equipped to train them? The Government continues to provide £37 million to support the teacher induction scheme, which includes funding for mentoring and support for all probationer teachers on the scheme. That includes funding for preference waiver payments, and students taking up that option are prioritised for allocation to remote and rural authorities, such as those in Ms Ross's constituency during their probationary year and benefit from additional payment of up to £8,000. Through our education reforms, we will take steps to ensure that initial teacher education prepares students to enter the profession with consistently well-developed skills to teach key areas such as literacy, numeracy and health and wellbeing, and to provide the support to schools to ensure that the training and induction experience is of value to individual candidates. In the data that I published just before Christmas, the number of post-probation of teachers in employment has now reached 88 per cent, which is the highest level on record as a consequence of the actions of the Government. You mentioned at the Education and Skills Committee meeting on 20 December that, although there was an improvement in probationary applications, there was a lower than expected retention rate of qualified teachers. For 2017, official statistics showed that at the start of the year, around 4,000 teachers who had been registered at the beginning of the year were not registered at the end of the year. Can the cabinet secretary tell us what percentage of the total retirements were teachers leaving the profession? What percentage of the numbers were retirements? I cannot give Mr Mundell that figure just now, but I am happy to confirm it to him in writing. What I think is welcome at this stage is the fact that we have seen an increase in teacher numbers in our classrooms of 543 in this academic year. That is a tremendous boost to the delivery of education in our classrooms, and the Government is committed to working with our initial teacher education providers to make sure that we continue that good progress in the years to come. To ask the Scottish Government by what date the national trauma network will be fully operational. The Scottish Government is working with NHS Scotland to deliver a major trauma network in Scotland. This work remains on schedule with the national implementation plan, agreed by the Scottish trauma network steering group last month. This sets out plans for the phase delivery of the Scottish trauma network over five years to 2022. I thank the cabinet secretary for that answer. She will recall that a year ago Dr Catherine Calderwood, the chief medical officer, concluded that new trauma services in Aberdeen and Dundee would be operational in 2017, and I quote, subject to funding and workforce and in line with nationally agreed priorities. Given the timescale that she has indicated today, can she tell us whether the new target timescale is in the place of that target of 2017? Is it that result of issues with funding or with workforce or with nationally agreed priorities? The implementation plan remains the same. Lewis Macdonald will be aware that an extra £5 million was given in 2017-18 to enable improvements to accelerate. Funding was provided to deliver a 24-7 trauma desk and life-saving equipment in all Scottish Ambulance Service vehicles. Work was undertaken in Tayside and Fife to pilot the trauma triage tool, which will ensure severely injured patients get to the right hospital as quickly as possible. Funding of £10.2 million in 2018-19 will allow implementation of the major trauma centres in Dundee and Aberdeen, which meet the agreed minimum requirements, which will be operational during 2018. I am sure that Lewis Macdonald will be pleased that the Dundee and Aberdeen centres are proceeding as was outlined previously.