 The following is a presentation of TFNN, the Tiger Technician Hour with your host, Basil Chapman. Call now toll-free at 1-877-927-6648. Good morning everyone, the futures of just S&P futures have just pushed over the 200-period moving average of the five-minute chart. Did that before, did that earlier at about 6.30 this morning, and then pull back. So we're going to see how much strength there is, and now let's just go to the market. So this is going to be an important session in the sense that it closes out what looked for quite a while to be a lousy year, and then that moved from October the 27th until this very minute. That was really a spectacular move. You can see it in the weekly chart. So now let me go through. I'm going to start off right now with the Dow chart. Left side is the daily, middle is the weekly, and the monthly chart is on the right. All-time highs, we're looking at a leg C in the monthly chart, and just a review for those of you who are not quite conversant with the Chapman methodology, this particular chart right here. I try to identify the lowest low bar using technicals, and then what I do is I see each one of these higher peaks. As long as that, from their initial starting point, as long as that low is not taken out, the moment you take it out by one penny, you've negated any buy signal or any upward movement, you have to start fresh for the count to the upside. The count to the upside is very simple. It's alphabetical from A to G. Each successively higher peak gets alphabetized. It's called a floating letter until it makes a peak. Then it makes a peak. The moment it pulls back and then starts its upward movement and takes out the left side high by one penny, it starts a new leg up. So that's peak A. One penny above that starts leg B, a floating letter until it makes a peak, etc. It goes all the way. The idea is to get you from a buy signal to a buy mode. If there is a buy mode triggered, through the technical, the veracity of the technicals, the strength of the technicals, that implies that there should be at least four higher peaks, and the alphabetized peak A is the first piece, the second is the third, and peak D is the fourth. That's where other things can happen. That's where you can get your sharpest decline. That's where within three bars, if it makes a new recovery high above that peak D, it starts making E and all you have to do is think to yourself, there's an alternate account. It could be E slash A, then F slash B, G slash C, and invariably the G slash C goes to D. Then what's exciting about the Chapman Wave instant restart is the only technique I've ever written in all the, I mean, been getting stocks and commodities magazine for 40 years? I don't know how many years. I've never ever seen grading of peaks to the extent where that fourth highest peak tells you that you could actually have a whole new four peaks to the upside. It's a real nice technique. All right. And you could never go higher than a G in terms of the letters because there is no H. You can go higher, but then you have to say, is there an alternate count? Was that a G slash C and now you've got a D? But the idea is to alphabetize sequentially to the upside. Well, where are we? We are in the monthly chart in leg C. The MACD is good. The stochastic is 78%, not quite 80%. So that's great, but it's good. The on-balance volume is positive. The nine is way over the 14. And that says, you need other techniques to tell you how high you're going. But in this particular instance, what it does tell you is that you cannot get a peak C Let's just imagine that the high that we've seen in the Dow of 37,771, was it yesterday? 37,778. We haven't got there yet today. Just imagine that that high, all of January, is not taken out. Not even by one penny. That means we finally make a peak C. That means you have to wait for February at the earliest to go to a leg D. No, no, no. That means, yes, if there's no higher peak and look at this, you're within fractions. So how on earth could it not be that somehow next week there's one little pop to the upside? However, this is what the rule is. The rule is an entire bar has to unfold without a new recovery high or at least a price high of the bar to form a peak. So that means you now have to go to February for leg D and then you have to go to March for a peak D. So the earliest we can get a peak D in the monthly chart of the Dow is one into the first quarter. So wait a minute, we've got a leg, possible leg A up in the weekly chart. Same principle applies. Yes. And I really don't have a choice. I have to put an up arrow here. Look, the nine is way over the 14, like green period moving average way over the 14. It is positive that it looks like we're closing above the doji candle of last week. Okay. With that said, if this is leg A and the price is way above the nine period moving average green line, the green is way over the 14 period moving average, the black line, we are way above the 200 period moving average of $31,900. I don't even have to talk about that until one day we start to get to the $33,100 level. Meantime, the MACD is still, you see the histogram, the vertical line, still expanding because the stochastic flatted 96%. That's what you want to see if you're in a buy mode, right? And the on balance volume is very overboard. So that says be careful you could pull back. Wait a minute. If we pull back into three weeks ago, the three weeks ago, the low of three weeks ago in the Dow, the week of the 15th of December was $36,231. That's 1,300 points down. I'm all 14, 1,500 points down. So in that regard, I do have to consider this an A. This used the same rule of thumb. So it's called the seven, I used to initially, really in the beginning when I started hand charting, and I used to get, I call this the seven-way form, A, B, C, D. And then the pullbacks, it goes one, two, three, four, five, six, seven. It's the eighth leg down. It's the eighth leg, which is the one that goes down. That really starts to move down. So it's a seven-way form. That takes you at least from next week, at least another five or six weeks. If every week is up, and the next week is lower, and the next week is high, and that just never happens. So it says at the earliest we can get, the peak was in the weekly chart, would be probably we're going into mid-February. So this is really positive. Ha! Now here comes the story. The story is, it doesn't tell you how low you can go if there is a self. But under the normal constraints that I look at in a single leg, A up like this, in a spectacular move with all the technicals really positive. The big concern is that when you're up in the 98.13 area, you never get to 100 in the stochastic, slow stochastic. But when you get to the 98s, surely the next big move should be to move down below 80% to the 70%. And once that starts, very often it goes all the way down to the single digits. That's what you've got to be careful of. Just wanted to give you a little heads up here to say what could happen if there wasn't gradient in January and we were too weak. I'll be back at the moment, there's a lot to discuss. Tell us down five, it's a piece of change. If you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market, then Rocket Equities and Options Report is a newsletter you should try. Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them, using a combination of fundamentals and technicals. Sign up for Rocket Equities and Options Report today with a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. 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Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today, TFNN.com Educating Investors. Tom O'Brien publishes his weekly gold report every Monday morning for subscribers, consisting of coverage of the XAU, HUI, GDX, The Dollar, Bonds, The South African Rand, as well as 25 different mining equities with specific buy-sell recommendations. The Gold Report. New subscribers get a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. Subscribe to Tom O'Brien's Gold Report newsletter now at TFNN.com. Sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders. Just visit the front page of TFNN.com. Toll-free at 1-877-927-6648. Internationally at 727-873-7618. I want to get to this right away since I was also caught up. ACHR is ultra-adiation. I've looked this up many times, always look it up, and then I just don't remember if this is the one. Let me just see ACHR. I don't know if this is the one that does the electric aviation, and then there's the new one that's just starting the flying car. That looks fantastic, but ACHR's design developing this electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft using urban air mobility networks. I've looked at this for quite some time. Do I have it? Let me just check here. I think I have it on my screen list. I've had it before, and I don't know if I tick it off because I thought, you know, this could just be so, it could be so long before it matures. ACHR, ACHR, ACHR, ACHR. No, I don't have it at this time. I have some others, but I don't have that. Yeah, so it's trading at 6.20 right now. This is what I would do. I don't know if they have options on this. I would just have a very long-term outlook. I've mentioned this many times before. A friend of mine, he and I used to go to, I've been going to the auto show here in Boston for decades and decades and decades, and then they stopped it. And then with COVID, they stopped it altogether. It hasn't come back at all. But back in 2004 or 2005, I remember that the Priests had just come out, or it was just as Priests was coming out, and my friend said, oh, I'm not giving, I'm not paying any money for oil anymore. I'm getting electric. And he said, the order is done. I said, you know, if you look at history, whatever you do, when there's a major change, where is a defining trend change, it takes 30, 40, even 50 years for the infrastructure to develop to the point where you can just get into the key and go. He said, no, come on. Well, what, 5%, maybe 10% at this point we've got charging stations. So it takes a long, long time. So for this to become a really functional and enterprise that is practical, it has to be ecological, it has to be definitely financially lucrative. It's going to take a while. So if you put this in your draw and you just say, I'm buying it and I'm buying it either for a really quick trade because I've done my homework or I'm buying it for the long term, I'm just saying to you, if you can put this in your draw, there's a chance that it could be zero or there's a chance that it could be up in the double, even triple digits at some point. It just has that capacity. Some stocks, you see, I don't know if they could ever get to triple digits, but this one has the potential if everything comes right. But you're not talking about tomorrow, you're not talking about this year, you're not talking about the next three years. It's really a multi, it's almost like a decades-long project. In that decade, huge things had happened. This once was in the 18s and a drop down to the one something, 1.80 or 1.790 and now it's at 6.17. So percentage-wise, it has a lot. So I'm just going to say to you, on a very short-term basis, I see it pulling back. I can see it pulling back to the 590 to 580 level. That's where, give me a yell, we'll look at it again. But at this particular point, look at the charge of period moving average in the weekly chart. It just keeps going above and below and above it. So I suspect that this is in a sideways to slightly down trading range right now. But looking out, yes, this is one that has the potential. I mean, the story looks fantastic, right? But I'm just saying to you, everything takes a long time in reality. All right. So with that said, I wanted to just cover. So what I wanted to do is this. I wanted to say for subscribers to my opening call, for the first time in a while, we've taken a very slow short position, one-to-one and one of the indexes. But we've also got a very small, aggressive short and one of the sectors that I think, if this market comes down, this particular sector, I don't say it should lead, but it should be a big participant on the downside. And so far, nothing here, other than two to three technical indications that I have are saying that anything but a shorter-term pullback, and here's what I'm looking at. What's the craziest thing that could happen here in the market? Well, that today, towards the end of the day, profit-taking doesn't start for the tax situation, just realigning and a whole bunch of things happen. And suddenly, there's a little bit of a slight little rug pull at the last hour and a half or so, and the market closes lower. And Tuesday, when we come back to work, the market is lower. And then what do we do? We're just looking at this rectangle here, some kind of a pullback in the rectangle. I'm looking at this initially as just a position where I'm trying to get a sense of feel for weakness and strength, what the residual strength that's left, and some of the weakness that I see creeping in based on my own technical indicators. And as a result, let's just go to the Dow right now. Here's your rectangle. So it says, wow, I mean, if you're going to the rectangle, you'd look 400 points, 500, 600 points. That's just nothing in where we've come from 32,000 feet, 327 to 37,778, I think it was. That's spectacular gain. Well, the process says to me that this Dow G candle right here, that's like a magnet, and that at some point very soon, we should be testing this bar right here. Okay. If you look at the S&P, it's a little different. Look at the struggle from this Dow G candle of five sessions ago, where it just was making a new recovery high, and then it squeaked Dow G candle, then it squeaked to slightly higher high, then it makes, whoa, wait a minute, this is a low high. Look at this, 47,84,72, 47,85, 39, 47,93.30, and so far today, our high is 47,88.43. Do you think that this S&P index is going to go to the 48,18.62 all-time high of January of 2022? Two years later? Absolutely. I think there's no question it's in leg D. We should at least test that level, and if we go one penny above the 48,18.62 level, that negates everything about that Pb, and now we're in leg D. All right, so you finally get your D, and then maybe we start to look at a Pd. Look at the QQQ, slightly different again. It's had very tiny candles. I mean, basically, is this distribution, it's running out of steam to the upside? Well, we've seen this before, went sideways, and then it suddenly popped, but I'm looking at this, and I'm saying the MACD is starting to pull back, but it's still positive. The stochastic is still 95%. That's really great. On balance one's only pulled back a little bit. There's still internal stress. How would it be? What would get it down towards the 405 level? It's at 411 right now. We'll talk about that. 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This is from the, this is, I should actually put the date in, date never changes, but the price actually does because it gets smoothed out as a continuous contract. 2152.3 was the high, 124.23. I'll just put the date in, 124.23. So that candle, this is the Chapman Way Roman candle, big red one inverted upside down and we did close, not really, but the gold contract closed below it, the low of that day of the fourth, the very next session. And then it kind of meandered and then it plunged much lower. So that says that that's a very negative aspect and a result of this particular candle. Then what happened is we crawled our way back in and we're having a terrible time seeing this, the right, the opening price of 2094 as a closing basis. Even this candle right here, the close was 2093. It was under it. So the body of this candle is just maintaining, it's like a magnet. It's just drawing the price in. So until we can see gold actually moving into the 21,000, I put in 35 area and definitely this is still in place only as now as a kind of a benchmark. It's lost its usage within two days. Now it's a different aspect altogether. It just says that if at any point for an entire day, if there's a close above 2120, that's really positive. It says now you can work your way towards the high. In other words, that 2150 area. But I'm looking at this and I'm saying there's something wrong with this picture. Gold and if you look at many of the gold, so we were in the gold stock, we were stopped out, I made a very tight stop. I'm just not prepared to mess around because with the dollar plunging like this, look at this, here's the dollar sitting right on, right? It's down five ticks at 101.19. With even this move from the 103s down to the 101s, I would have anticipated if you said to me, the dollar just plunged from the 200 period moving average, two points, you know, one and a half percent or whatever it is, where do you think gold would be? And I look at gold and I say, wait a minute, it went from the 200 period moving average up. I say, and it was at 1900 and let's call it 1900 and whatever that is. Let me just give you that number there where it was, 1991. I would have said, wow, it should be up in the 2150, probably the 20, even close to 20, 2200 level. So it's had the same kind of proportion, but it hasn't had the excitement that you would think would be generated by the dollar going down like that. And if you're looking at the silver, look at this, the silver, that's not a very pleasant looking chart. There's your peak B, this could turn into a dreaded H, but it's sitting on the 200 period magnet, the 200 period moving average. So I'm looking at this, I'm saying there's something not quite right with this picture. And if you look at the, I don't want to take time right now, other than to say, if the dollar next week actually sees a bounce of this level, the inside track support level right here, if it sees a bounce at the same time as gold pulls back and the TLT, I'm just, this is a scenario, this is, you can only just look at scenarios and say, this is what I'm looking at right now. And this is a possibility and I'm giving that possibility a higher reading than zero. It's, in fact, the possibility right now for me is moving from about 45%, maybe by the end of the day it'll be up at the, I would put it at 60%. And that's, what am I saying? I'm saying that I, from my work, I suspect that we're going to see some kind of a weakness at the end of the day and some weakness on Tuesday, maybe Wednesday, and that's going to be the clue, almost the clue for January, if I'm reading this correctly. If in fact we close at the high of the day today and Tuesday we go even higher, that's just, it's another picture all together, there's a delay going on. And I don't know which is going to be the one, but I have to see. And if the Dow, what the Dow is unchanged right now, but if by, oh, I'd say, I'd say just subscribe as if after about 2.15 this afternoon, if the Dow is actually down about minus 60 or more, that's the scenario we're looking at. If it's not, well, maybe it's a delay. So that's what I'm looking at. And I'm not saying I'm, I have a major signal, I have the start of signals that are saying right now that there's a chance that we could see weakness, number one. And number two is there's a lot. You remember I said to you, this is the, if I got the right one, is this the one? No, that's the one. Okay. I've only got like the hint of a slightly dark cloud. It's like I'm looking up and actually it's a little shady, a little cloudy today. But I have got no real dark news cloud cover here. But I've put this in to say I have some hints. So I'm putting it only as hints. I haven't got a big long rectangle here that says, oh my God, this could be a really serious decline. I have the start of something. I need the TLT to drop sharply so the yields go up. I need the dollar to move higher. I need gold to move. Look, there's a lot that I'm anticipating should happen if there is to be more than just a pullback. All right. I've got the start. I've got a couple of clouds out there. And that's all I've got. So I'm using other technical tools to say, well, keep sticking with those technical tools. Tools that usually work well for you and we'll see. So in the meantime, the TLT has support, a whole bunch of support of the nine-period moving average, the 14-period moving average of 98.13. And then the 200-period moving average of 96.57. All right. And he has your single leg A in the weekly chart, but it's way under the all-time high or at least the higher March of 2020 of 179.70. So this is just single leg A at this particular point. All right. I wanted to get those out the way. Now I wanted to do some other things. Can you repost your SPX chart? I think you mean SPXS there. Whoops. Did I do something wrong? Did I type it in the wrong place? Probably. So let me just type it in here. Yeah, there. So you see this breakout? Now I don't want to go through this. It is technical Friday, but there's a lot to go through and I'm going to run out of time. So I don't want to do that because I have a lot to discuss that I think is pertinent to how we start 2024. So within this context, I really don't have a choice but to call this a leg A. So I'm going with an up arrow. It could become a single leg failure pattern. We've seen that before, but after weeks and weeks from 4103, the week of the 27th of October, to where we are right now at 4781, all I can see is that there's one-third, something like that, pullback, maybe into the 46, 12, 45, 50 area, 9 and 14 grand moving averages. That to me would probably be a worst case. Yes. So Jamie, that's what we're looking at. Oh, let me just do this here to see if there is any... No, I thought I'd get a Tringage reading. No Tringage reading. Everything's just mutual. So okay, we've got that, and then we've got two segments to go. I've got a lot to cover. I wanted to show you the pattern that I'm saying is for me kind of a benchmark here. You see Microsoft? Microsoft 376.56, the lowercase h goes to a lowercase m pattern. I think it's telling us a story about those magnificent seven. I'll be back. The gold report. As a precious metal, gold is still king. 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The prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares. To obtain a prospectus or summary prospectus please contact direction shares at 866-476-7523. The prospectus or summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing. An investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principle. The funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors. Distributor, Four Side Fund Services, LLC. These actions since I have the 29th of November at 384.30 for Microsoft, I should mention we're long. We've even got trading positions right now that we've taken a little bits off. We got that low that was right here. We added to the position so we've taken a little bits off. We wanted to get to 378 for the next little bit off just on the trading position. Why? Because I want to be building up a kitty for the stocks that really the great stocks that at times you want to get in but you're not quite sure if this is the low for that particular move. So you want to give a little bit more room leeway to your stop and that way we can increase that proportion. So that's really important to me. And as I say I like for subscribers we like to get into stocks in this case like the diamonds which are up at 300 and in the 370s. Microsoft is in the 370s. It's actually just the same as the diamonds, 376. And I treated this as a proxy for the entry point back in last the day of October as a proxy for our diamonds. And I said I wanted something that really represents all the different aspects of the market, which is the Dow, the S&P, the XLK, that's the S&P select tech sector. And it just I wanted and the QQQs it just needed to be in something like that. Now I can see some vulnerability but how fullable we won't know just yet. And as I said I think we're looking at distribution. That's the way I'm looking at the market right now. And so the three factors that I was looking at for recent why we finally actually start some short positions. One is I've got a couple of technical indicators that say whoa, this is a level that you've got to be careful. I've also got some that say with the stochastic in the 97% and 98% are you out of your mind? Well we've seen before. Let me go to this right now. What are we going to look at here? We'll look at that's the IWM. What will I put? It doesn't matter what I put. I would just go generic. We'll go to the S&P. S&P right now. We've seen before how the nine-period moving average can hold really well above the 14. And when you get that final little peak to the upside it's like an M-shaped pattern, M-shaped pattern, M-shaped pattern, possible M-shaped pattern. What happens is the price like August the first when we got the Dow short to the exact high that was based on the on balance volume right there. And I had a question. In fact, I typed it in. I was going to use it when I do my weekend overview. I probably will do it. I'll have to do it this afternoon or this evening before I'm away. So that it took a long, took like eight, nine sessions before the nine-period moving average crossed negative. Do we have the same sort of thing going on here? I don't know. But we'll see. There are enough, enough indications to say, hey, look, on the left side chart, here's your on balance volume. That's extremely overbought. But the price is not really reflecting it just yet. It will, if the Dow closes down 60 more points just on the day. But that's not good enough. You have to have follow-through on the downside going into, I would even put it Wednesday, maybe even Thursday. And we might even find that we get this sudden sell-off early next week. But there's such residual strength based on the 914 strength that there's still one or two upspikes that can go into maybe the middle of January, maybe the third week of January. But I am looking at this and saying everything I'm looking at suggests visually, that's one, but you can't just do things visually. You have to do technique, technically. But if I look at all the different indices, and if I look at the way, look at this, Apple. Apple is kind of struggling. I say that this peak B absolutely to me looks like that's not a B. That looks like a D or an E. It's got every characteristic there. This is a B in the weekly chart. Look at Amazon. Amazon also has this B, but it's holding a lot better. So there's enough residual. I could call this an alternate count. I should. So let me call this an alternate count. If it's all the criteria for an F right there, an F slash B. Okay, I'm satisfied with that. But I can still call this a B in the weekly chart. No problem there. We want to look at Googie. If I don't type it on the chart, I can type it in the little rectangle here. Yeah, so a Google has got E to F, but actually that's not good enough. I like to, if I can get a full peak D, let's see if we can get that here. You had a D once at the chat wave inside track repellent zone. So there's your A, there's your B, there's your C, and there's your D with the doger candle. The number of doger candles, it's just saying to me, you might be mistaken, you might be reading this all wrong. I'm reading it as some kind of distribution that says to me, be a little careful. So I'm done with that. Now what I want to do is I want you to go to the first level, which is around 48, 14, 48, 23. Oh, wow, look at that sell-off. Yeah, this is, this is what we were planning for. Day's young, down 55. Okay, so we're down 55 in the down, we're down 12, 13 in the S and P. We've got that peak D in the one minute. Oh, I didn't do anything because I was on air. And then we hit the where, how important is the 200-period moving average? I don't even have to open it up. Look, right there, 200-period moving average, pow. 200-period moving average, pow. And now we're down sharply from that level. The day is young, but I suspect that we're about to start some, you can call it profit taking, but usually people don't wait until the very first day of the year and then say I'm taking, but I am looking at the history. I need to go through this. I've spoken about it for quite some time. Every year, I always say, if the last week of October, the first week of November, the market has come back after the travails of August, September, the plunge that we often get even into October, but it's come back and is close to the yearly high. There's a real good chance that we will close the year close to or just about at the year, the yearly high. What I said this year is that it was all delayed. We got that low on the 27th of October, instead of getting close to a high. And then the first week of November was the turnaround. So my thinking was, oh, that's a little different. Now it makes the end of the year a little bit more, it makes it harder to assess based on the lopsidedness of the delay. Well, the speed of the move up, you saw those leg As in the weekly charts was just incredible. So as I'm looking at it right now, it says to me that in the back of my mind, I was thinking there's a really good chance that we do get January selling after such a spectacular move. How we get the January selling is going to be contingent upon what happens going into today's close. Now I can't remember. I think with the New Year is different to Christmas day where everything was closed around the world. I think that the futures are open in some countries. So I'm going to be watching that. So what happens on Monday when it's our January the first, and maybe I don't remember now, I think the futures are supposed to be closed until six o'clock on Monday night. That's the first of January. I want to see what happens. Because if get itself early in January, the first couple of days of January, the speed and the duration and the extent of the sell-off, if it's just mild, there's who, who, who. Be careful. There's still enough strength to have another pop to the upside. We saw that the 914s are still very strong. So I'm just saying, tentative move to the downside. TFNN has just launched their new trading room, the Tiger Zen, hosted at Discord. TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours, and now they are expanding their reach with the Tiger's Den, available to all Tigers and Tigresses for just one dollar for the year. 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Remember we spoke for a long time, I drew in this line right here, this long, this is the monthly chart of the volatility index right there sitting just minding its own business and it's been making lower lows and lower lows and lower lows and actually lower highs as well. That doesn't say, oh, look at this, now the VIX is ready to really move to the upside. What it says is, this is now a support level in the 12th and if it starts to move higher, sustainability of the VIX index is really important if you're going to get a settle from the market. So unless the VIX index starts to trade in the 13, 18, 14, 50 level and hold throughout a whole day, selling will be good. So in the meantime, just a very big post level, have a wonderful weekend