 Hey everyone this is Dan with my first video on Pfizer. Pfizer has been a leading pharmaceutical company for many years. Recently because of COVID-19 and because of Pfizer's success in developing or marketing products to fight COVID-19, the stock price of Pfizer has increased significantly in the last few months. In this video I will explain why I believe there's a lot more room for Pfizer to go up. Let's get into the details. First let's look at how Pfizer stock price has gone up in the last few months. This is the daily chart showing the last 12 months. The candlestick chart is Pfizer and the blue line here is QQQ. The purple line here is SPY. As you can see QQQ and SPY representing the broad market went up impressively at 29% in the last 12 months. But Pfizer jumped up 60% in the last 12 months definitely beating the market. The main reason for the increase in the last couple months was because of the COVID pill and prior to that the increase was due to the COVID vaccine that Pfizer is distributing jointly with BioNTech. The Pfizer COVID pill is supposed to be 89% effective against hospitalization of death which is a very impressive number. And if you look at the chart here when Pfizer made the announcement on November 5th about the effectiveness of the COVID pill, the price already went up for a few days because there's probably some internal news already coming out of Pfizer before the formal announcement. And then after the announcement it continued to go up and then the COVID pill was approved by the EU on December 16th and that certainly caused a big jump during that one day period. And after that the price settled down a little bit and a few days later the COVID pill received approval from FDA. This is the news announcement. Also December 14th it was confirmed that the Pfizer COVID pill is near 90% effective in the final analysis. But more importantly in this particular news article it was reported that the US government has bought 10 million courses of the Pfizer drug for $5.29 billion. In the same article it also said that Pfizer plans to make 80 billion more courses in 2022. 80 million is definitely eight times more than 10 million promise of the US government. And if 10 million is $5.2 billion then 80 million courses will be worth $40 billion and that's going to be a significant increase in sales compared to the current trailing 12-month revenue of $69 billion. And that's why I bought Pfizer shares recently. I'll talk more about that later. If you look at the COVID vaccines certainly the leading vaccine is the one that's being marketed by Pfizer and BioNTech. The vaccine was developed by BioNTech but Pfizer signed a distribution agreement with BioNTech and the two companies are splitting the profit 50-50. Pfizer certainly has derived a lot of revenues and profit from the vaccine. I'll talk more about that in the next few minutes. If you compare the major vaccines now offered by Pfizer, BioNTech, Moderna, Johnson and Johnson, AstraZeneca as far as approval all of them have been approved for people who are 18 years old and older but Pfizer and BioNTech the vaccine having approved actually for people five and older and that's why the Pfizer, BioNTech vaccine has broader coverage than the other vaccines and that's why it's got the most sales potential amount all the COVID vaccines and as we know because of the new variants especially the Omicron variant the world is going to be needing more and more vaccines and that will be good news for Pfizer. If you look at the different COVID treatments the Pfizer COVID treatment Paxilbit is at 89% effective it's definitely the most effective treatment among all the treatments available and these treatments are from Pfizer, Merck, Juliet, GlaxoSmith, Klein, Regeneron, Eli Lilly. They range from 30% to 89% and of course the pills offered by Pfizer and Merck are the easiest to administer and that's why they have great potential except Merck has the effectiveness of only 30% and that pretty much took Merck out of the running. In the meanwhile we read about the news that the COVID treatment from Regeneron and Eli Lilly only have limited effects against Omicron and therefore the Pfizer COVID treatment Paxilbit has very great sales potential. If you look at the top products of Pfizer this is from the Pfizer 10Q report, the quarterly report. The leading drug is definitely the COVID vaccine Comunity. The sales for just one quarter was $12.97 billion and then the next one up is Prefna at $1.4 billion. Next one down is Hybrons at $1.38 billion and then Eloquence at $1.34 billion and so on. These are the leading drugs ranked in terms of revenues. If you look at the patent expiration date some of these drugs are expiring in 2026, 2027 so they still have a runway of at least four to five years and although this particular drug XELJNZ is expiring between 2023 and 2025 the revenue is $610 million. There's a lot of money but it's relatively small compared to the other products here. Now in terms of the COVID treatment Paxilbit it's a combination of a drug by the name of Retonover. The patent is expiring on 2028 which has a runway of six years and then another component which is really new is called the Matt River. That's a new drug developed by Pfizer at this point looks like they are still in the process of applying for patent and that means it's going to have quite a bit of a runway and that's great news because that means Pfizer will be able to derive significant sales from this COVID treatment for many many years to come and as far as sales is concerned for each quarter remember we estimated previously that it'll contribute about up to $40 billion for Pfizer just in 2022 even if you have that that's five billion dollars a quarter and that's going to be a very significant boost to the income of Pfizer and that's why I'm so bullish about Pfizer. If you like what you've seen so far I'd like to encourage you to click the like subscribe and notification button that'll enable you to receive notification when I publish my next video it'll also encourage me to post more videos like this in the future thank you very much let's continue we have a lot to cover if you look at the product development pipeline of Pfizer they have 27 products in phase one 29 in phase two and 29 in phase three and nine it's already in the registration process and that's definitely a very strong product development pipeline and I believe Pfizer will have a steady stream of revenues for many many years to come this is a very good company now let's look at some of the financial figures these are the figures from the better investing stock selection guide database if you look at Pfizer's sales that's represented by the black line here as you can see in the last three quarters their sales have been going up very quickly compared to the industry average which is a blue line here and also commitment murk the orange line and mgen the purple line here definitely they outperform the industry average as well as outperforming mgen and murk and I drew this dotted line to project their sales increase at about 15 a year and that's a very conservative estimate compared to their growth in the last two three quarters that's why i'm comfortable with the 15 sales growth assumption if you look at the ebs definitely very impressive growth in the last three quarters outperforming the industry and outperforming murk and mgen again i drew this very conservative dotted line representing 15 annual growth which is very reasonable compared to the historical record especially compared to the performance in the last two three quarters ever since the outbreak of covid and then if you look at the debt to capital ratio of course the lower the ratio the better you can see that they are being generating a lot of cash paying off debt and that's why the debt to capital ratio has been dipping very quickly performing better than the industry average and better than mgen and murk now there is a way in the better investing database to identify whether a stock is a buy hold a sell status and based on my assumption a high p ratio of 30 and a low p ratio of 12.7 and based on the eps growth the stock selection guide database says it's definitely in the buy range actually it's going to be in the buy range as long as it's less than 81.60 at least that's one way of looking at it let's look at another way of evaluating the company first of all i compared a leading pharmaceutical companies look at their market cap and look at their p ratios as you can see here johnson and johnson is the biggest one in terms of market cap and five series the second biggest pharmaceutical company in terms of market cap at $332 billion definitely it's a very big company the trailing p ratio is 16.9 which is not excessively high compared to these other pharmaceutical companies which have p ratios ranging from 32 all the way down to eight i use the assumption of 15 percent earning growth remember we showed that in the previous chart from the better investing stock selection guide database and that's a very conservative assumption and then using the 16 average forward p ratio which is equivalent to the current p ratio of 16.9 and then i use the current trailing 12 month financial figures for earnings for p ratio for market cap and stock price and then based on the earning growth rate i extrapolate the stock prices for the end of 2021 2022 and 2023 so i have a range of between $57 and $76 with this range i decide to pick my target at $70 a share to be achieved by the end of june 2022 let's look at the other endless opinions also today december 27th the closing price of Pfizer is at $59 and 20 cents my target is at $70 by the end of june 2022 tip ranks calm gives them a moderate buy rating with a high target of $75 average target of 56 and low target of 44 cn and money gives them a hold rating with a high target of 75 median target of 55 and low target of 44 the street.com gives them a buy rating a minus which is a very nice rating and with a price target of $78 a share loose never layer gives them the overall rating of a which is a very strong buy rating and quantitative rating of a and fundamental rating of b definitely that's a very positive rating from loose never layer let's look at the chart this is the daily chart for Pfizer as we can see we have a nice upward training channel here with the rsi indicator we see an overbought situation a few days ago i'm sure enough the price started to drop a little bit at this point we are at about five percent below the all-time high emi has been bullish ever since the beginning of november macd has been bullish since december 13 and most recently it's approaching the zone where it's going to be maybe becoming bearish in the next day or so if the trend continues so we've got to watch out for that now if you look at the weekly chart it tells a very interesting story of course we see the rising trend here in the last six seven weeks but if you look at rsi it's at a very high level now compared to the rsi values since the end of 2020 at this point i won't be surprised if the price starts to go sideways for a few weeks before it picks up again or it might even go down a little bit until the rsi gets to between about 50 or 60 and then it will resume the upward momentum again like what happened here and that's why at this point even though i bought some 500 shares i will not be buying a lot more until i see the weekly rsi value get below 70 or close to 60 if you look at dmi has been bullish since march and macd has been bullish since the beginning of november but again gotta be mindful of the very high rsi value here this might not be a good time to buy a lot more shares let's look at the hourly chart you can see this triangular pattern and typically with a triangular pattern when the price approaches the tip of the triangle it'll either break up or break down when it gets to the tip of the triangle it might go down a little bit before it starts to turn up again just so that it'll allow the weekly rsi to cool off a little bit if you look at dmi value it's already bearish and macd it was bullish pre-market today and if you look at macd it turned bullish during pre-market today although dmi is already bearish so i'll be very careful let's look at the support and resistance levels i've drawn the fibonacci extension diagram here using the closing price of december 8th as the minimum point and the closing price of december 16th as the maximum point and for support the next level of support will be at the middle of the boling band 20 period simple moving average at 55 the next level of support will be the 50-day moving average the blue dash line at $50 a share and the next level support will be the lower boling band at $49 a share for resistance the next level resistance will definitely be the all-time high of 61.7 and then the next level resistance will be at 23% fibonacci extension of $63 a share and then the next level of resistance will be fibonacci 38 extension at $65 a share i'll be watching these support and resistance levels very carefully what are my strategies first of all i already bought shares on november 18th and i'm seeing a 16 percent pay-per-gain already i'm still holding on to those shares i just bought more shares today during pre-market and i informed my twitter subscribers about that right after i bought the shares i will be mindful of the high rsi value on a weekly chart in general i would buy the stock when it bounces from a support level or breaks above a key resistance level or when positive news develops and i will sell the stock when it drops at a key resistance level or drops at a key support level or whenever news develops well five sir because i'm bullish on a company for the long term i'll be definitely holding some shares for the long term i'll be swing trading the rest of the shares to maximize my profit i will monitor any news related to the company and i'll be mindful of broad market because if the broad market is going to sink it's difficult for any particular stock to go up and vice versa i'll inform my twitter subscribers when i buy or sell shares or when major news develops at this point i'd like to remind you to subscribe to my twitter account which is danmarketl for example on november 18 i tweeted that i just bought pfe shares because feiser said it entered agreement to supply the u.s government with 10 billion courses of the coveton pills at 5.29 billion dollars and right after i read this news at that point i had not even analyzed feiser in details yet but just on that news i figured that it's a good opportunity to go in and buy and that's why i bought some shares and then this morning when i did a little more analysis on feiser i decided to buy more shares this first batch feiser shareboard already is seeing 16 percent gain so far again i'd like to encourage you to click the like subscribe and notification button as usual i will very much welcome your comments questions and suggestions let me recap my prediction i expect feiser to reach 70 dollars or above before the end of june 2022 and the current price is 59.20 i'd like to inform you that i'm not a financial advisor i share my stocks trading strategies and analyses for entertainment and educational purposes only if you want to buy or sell stocks you should make your home decisions and you should definitely consult with your financial advisor before you do so this wraps up my video for now i will chat with you again in the next few days in the meanwhile i'd like to wish you the very best of luck with your financial investments