 Let me do the last set of news. My name is Robin. Today is the time of the news I want to talk to you about a couple of different indicators to help you Take a look at what we considered a top or a bottom as far as the market goes and we're gonna go over a lot of different Things so let's just jump right in the first thing I want talked about is just a quick overview And I don't want you to forget these words of wisdom and really what it comes down to is this is that as far as Market tops and bottoms you can never Call them perfectly no one ever does and someone some people might get lucky and say well I did a couple times, but you know sometimes people call a top every single month So it really just depends they want what I want to remember is this this is from Nathan Rothschild One of the richest families on the planet, and he says it very accurately fortunes are made by buying low or as low as you Can and selling too soon because it's not about selling the absolute tip tip tippy top of the market It's about getting as close as you possibly can another piece of information is from Warren Buffett Investing is about time in the market not timing the market the majority of gains made in a few days So don't miss them and that's one of my fears too when I when I think about the market cycles I mean we've made so long for these cycles to play out Did I just miss another 10x another a 50x or 100x or should I actually sell at this point? These are the things that I worry about and probably you too not for sure and then also You have to remember this it's all about Making a plan and sticking to that plan This is from the Daily Stoic and it talks about a story of chef Kwame on walk He started his own not catering business He asked his mom for advice and his mom said this always trust the prep list You've made it in your sanest moment So trust that that list that you created because when you get in the kitchen you start working You'll be crazy and it's the same exact thing as far as the markets when we get into the markets We get a little bit of a FOMO. We get a little bit of fear We get a little bit of greed if we know what the plan that we laid out Isn't the plan that we follow and that's the problem with when you invest you ride things sometimes all the way up And then you write it all the way back down because you're like no no no It's gonna go it's gonna go higher and it's got to wait a little bit Sometimes it's better to have a plan of action and move in that direction now leave me to my next point Which is this I believe that We are on a four-year cycles. I believe that the four-year cycles are still intact and It's been happening like this 2012 we had a Bitcoin halving and then of course we had an all-time high from five bucks to a thousand dollars That was from 2012 2013 Then things get overheated and they fall down as a dip and a reset same thing happened in 2016-17 when I got in You had a Bitcoin halving and you had all-time high and of course things get overheated as a dip and a reset And then things go down way too low then we're in this channel and this was the last one we were in 2020 we have Bitcoin halving that happened all-time high we hit that and in 2022 and three We're having a dip and a reset and I thought That when I made my plan which there's a video you can watch about What I made two years ago as far as the plan of what I would actually do and I actually had a exit strategy of where I thought the prices would go and some worked out pretty well and some didn't but as time moved on I Thought no no no that it's gonna keep going up because maybe there's some Extended cycle theories, maybe we're gonna go from sixty seven thousand to a hundred fifty thousand like everybody talked about But it wasn't the case and if I just would have looked at the data and stuck to my plan and Sold when I was supposed to I'd be in a much better position now. I did okay I mean like for Ethereum I thought I'd go to ten thousand that didn't happen But I was able to sell at two thousand and some other points chain link I thought it would go to thirty five dollars it did and Bitcoin I missed it hundred fifty thousand and some other ones that I missed you can watch that video in your leisure So that's really what it comes down to so what I Want to do this this run is just take a look at some some indicators and there's seven. I want to talk to you about There's top callers bicycle top and UPL time and risk and there's some bottom ones MVR v two-year Puell and reserve and I can just tell you that with each of these they're mostly all on a Website called look into Bitcoin now you can go to this website and you can see all these indicators for free They're all free except for Ben's time and risk factor, which I think is still important But if you wanted to do that, they're all free now if you want to sign up for their indicators like I just got this one yesterday or so August 2nd is like August 3rd or 4th something like that you can see that it'll say tell you hey look this MVR v School soar score. It's entering in the oversold zone. Maybe this is a good time to accumulate They'll tell you exactly what it is now You don't have to I think it's like fits here in 20 bucks a month, but that's just for me again You don't have to so what I want to do is I want to take a look and start with the pi cycle top and just move forward from There so let's take a look at the pi cycle top What I'm gonna do is I'm gonna go over each one's indicators and just give you a brief overview to make it as simple as possible Then we'll come back and and break them down in the detail So really what this comes down to is that there's two lines here. Well, there's actually three There's the price of Bitcoin in black. There's the 111 day moving average Which is this one in like orange or yellow, then there's the green one the 300 day 350 day moving average times two Just to take just to zoom in real quick once the green line the 350 day moving average falls or crosses over the 111 day moving average That is the indicator of a potential top and it's what it's saying is that hey in 2013 The top was roughly a thousand dollars and ninety. Well, it wasn't it was 1184 but pretty good again. We don't care so much about Timing the absolute top. It's all about just getting to where we want to be as far as around So again, if we take a look at it retroactively because this was created in 2019 We can see that it was close a little bit on here and here But as these fall under again as the 111 day moving average goes over the 350 moving average That means a top happens in 2017 Over here. So what you want to do is just take a look at this and go when is this crossing over? Okay, I brought right here That might be considered a top and then go from there again as they as they start to get closer That's what you want to look for and that is the pie cycle top now if we take a look at the Nets Unrealized profit loss very simple everything and gets more simple than from here anything in the green Not a bad time to accumulate anything in the orangey red area Not a bad time to sell things getting overheated if we take a look at the time in risk bands And this of course is Ben's pay site if you just take a look at On 0.0 to 0.1 This is like when it could be considered a top or excuse me a bottom During this time might be a good idea to accumulate and then over here When it's like super high 0.9 to 1.0 That's a good time to actually sell and you can break this down by different market cycles And we'll go over that in a little bit And those are the top indicators on the bottom indicators You can kind of use them as as as top if you want to but I see these as better bottom indicators The first one is mbrv when it's in the greenish area not a bad time So probably accumulate it's happened here happened here happened here now in the red You can look at this and go. Yeah, it's not a bad time to Actually sell but I see this is more of a bottom indicator Also the two-year MA multiplier once you Get the price of bitcoin going into this this reddish area and Then that'd be a good time to probably sell and over in the green area Probably a good time to accumulate especially as it goes in this so again reds and reds and and greens sell Bye and that's about it pull multiple same thing here once it's in this green band Probably not a bad idea to accumulate and then the reserve risk price see here in the green Probably not a bad idea to accumulate here. So again This is just us going over things in detail. Let's jump back And really really break this down as far as the pie cycle top You can you can find this again at looking at bitcoin and this is a retro tool So the question then is well rob. How does this actually work? How do they get this data? Well, this is how it is Indicator review the pie cycle top indicators historically Then effective and picking out the timing of the market circle highs to within three days. That's pretty good It uses the 111 day moving average and newly created 300 day move average times two And then just so you know The date it was created was april 2019. So when people talk about the pie cycle top and how accurate it is it's actually looked back From around right here to call the tops and then moving forward from 2019 all the way here It didn't accurately hit the tops, but just like we talked about with baron Rothschild It's not about hitting the tops. It's about getting as close as you possibly can And then getting taking your profits and going your merry little way So the thing with this one of the want to make sure is everybody knows is this If we take a look back retroactively, we can see that these little markers here Uh, this was in 2011 and it didn't really mark the top too well But again, there wasn't that much data because I mean bitcoin has been around since uh 2009 or so So not too much, but if we take a look at this this period here, it also had a double All-time highs or double tops as you want to call them. So these are the cycles around 2013 You can see here that in april It was around 131 and it said okay. That is the top but again in 2013 Super volatile not a lot of data and then of course it said it called it again and said hey, this would be a good time to get out And it really did in all honesty in 2013 around 683 Which you just missed it a little bit not too bad. So That's the first part then in 2017 we can take a look here that yes It did hit that top perfectly at 19 3 2 6 But then this is where it gets interesting as we move forward We can see that The top that I thought it was at for the last cycle 2020 through 2023 2020 2020 3 yeah Uh, it said hey at 59 60 000 somewhere around there april 12 april 11th That's where we believe the top actually is and uh, that wasn't true That wasn't the absolute top the absolute top came over here and around uh, november November 10th 11th at 67,000. So and we can see that those The 350 day moving average times two and 111 day moving average are way Far apart, but it doesn't matter because all they want to do is just hit this price point And just get it to as close as humanly possible And that is the big thing with the picycle top indicator and what's also interesting about that is that A lot of people thought hey, there's something Wrong with the picycle top. This is uh, ben and the cryptiverse and he covered this on april 11th 2021 which again, which was pretty darn close to the top and it states right here He says hey at the global top for bitcoin was 29 days ago And this that would have been roughly march 12th or so So unless bitcoin goes back above 61 okay or so and as a major crash from the next three days And the cross the indicator will not come within three days of a major local top and it did it again But again, who cares it doesn't have to be perfect. Just got to be pretty darn close So that is the first one that is uh, the picycle top and as time goes on I think it would probably be hoove a lot of us just to make sure that we are taking a look at that one now That would take me to my next one The nupl so the nupl Again, it's not perfect, but it gives us an insight Into where a top could potentially be and how does this work? Well goes like this market value The current price of bitcoin Multiply by the number of coins in circulation And realized value takes the price of each big bitcoin when it was last moved Adds up all these individual prices and takes an average of them So you subtract realized value for market value and you get unrealized profit and loss There's some more information down here, but I think it's that big of a deal. All you got to know is this See down here when these red lines go down, that's capitulation and you can see how far down it goes It's quite quite drastic, but again Not a lot of data 2011 wasn't a lot of time But as we move closer, we get a little bit more accurate. The thing is with this one again is it did not accurately depict the absolute top now retroactively It said yeah around actually let's take a look in 2017 so in 2017 It went up to this belief denial phase Which is like the top that it could be and it said yeah, this is probably the top now Is that here or could have gone up here? Sure, but again, it's not about timing everything perfectly Then I then over here in our last cycle Here's what we got It briefly just almost touched Into that upper bands into this pinkish area and this would have been What they would have considered as the top because over here Again, when the top was supposed to be in november or so When it was 67,000 this band wasn't even close But if you took profits anywhere along here You would have been a lot better than just holding on and it's going. Nope. It'll go up. No, it'll go up because today it is August 4th 5th somewhere around there. I forgot but you're looking at a bitcoin price of around $24,000 So would you rather have sold when I don't know? bitcoin was at 56,000 Or 24,000 or maybe even over here when it was at well again 50 58,000 or 61,000 It doesn't really matter. It's just about getting to the closeness and that will lead me to my next point The cycle top caller three Which is time and risk bands again When we take a look at these it's just good to Take all of them together and go, okay. I take a look at pi cycle top and take a look at n upl and I'm also taking a look at the time and risk bands to see hey This could be the time when it's close to the top now This again is from ben's website into the cryptoverse is a link in the description Or if you're watching on dan teaches crypts, it'll be well this video itself And what's interesting is that you can take a look at the different time periods as far as market cycle market cycles one two three and four which is current and the way that ben lays it out is like this Market cycle one is a time in the bottom as far as bitcoin in 2010 market cycle two is a time at bottom Two would bitcoin in 2011 market cycle three time of bottom in 2015 and market cycle four is in 2018 But what's interesting to note is that you see these these risk bands here This is where It is what might be considered like the bottom bottom 0.001. There's no days In this last current cycle as it as it's been noted here in the last cycle cycle three You had seven days in cycle two you had so many days gosh 29 days and cycle one You had a lot of days where where there was pretty much the bottom But that's not what we're talking about. We're talking about the tops So if I take a look here and we just take a look at let's just put all the data in as you can see that the bottoms There's only 130 days in that whole time, but the tops There's only 18 days If we take a look at one There's zero days take a look at two There is three days and over here is 17 days and the third one very slight 12 And 15 days and for the current one it's even less. It's three days And 45 which is exactly what we just talked about in the beginning The majority of gains is made in a few days. So don't miss them The big thing I want to remember here is that's why we take all these different indicators And just think to ourselves which is the best one now I can't show you the the graph which is the historic risk levels Which you'll tell you the exact days because this is a paid website So if you would like to use all three of them looking at bitcoin is free This third one is optional But I think it would be who you to actually take a look at this from time to time And that's where we get for the cycle Tops so now let's switch gears a little bit And we'll talk about the bottoms so We're in 2022. We may have hit the bottoms. We may have not again All these different ones i'm talking about you can find this on the website or you can find them links in the description But the first I want to talk about is mvrv and mvrv quite simply and we talked about this Uh on here for looking at bitcoin also over at crypto quants just the mvrv regular score So how is this one all played out? Well, it uses three metrics uh the market value Which is the blue line current price of bitcoin multiply the number of coins in circulation The realized value or the price of each bitcoin when it was last moved adds up Always individual price takes an average of them Then the z score pulls out the extremes in the data between market value and realized value So really what it comes down to is this if you take a look at the bottoms I think we can all figure that out Which is as it goes down This could be the bottom because when you take a look at this these different graphs like which one is the bottom bottom Well, no one really knows again. It's about getting as close to possible as we possibly can and then just go from there so in 2012 you were looking at Gosh a market cap of 17 million. Oh, that's hilarious Score was in the negatives over here down here, of course, uh some pretty some pretty bottoms for Just for the market now we go forward Taylor 2018 we remember these times this would have been considered the bottoms I know would have been okay. This is where I made pretty much all my money Just dollar cost averaging right here when everything was boring And I talk about this of course in the four-year cycles When I'm buying when it's super boring And then of course as we take look forward, uh, june 13th roughly was when we blow this up so you can see it Was essentially when we may have bought now does that mean it can't go lower it can go lower Of course, why not? But this is not a bad time to accumulate for me. The question I always ask myself is bitcoin Expensive right now or is it cheap? Going back the pie cycle tops when everything's going to appear is bitcoin expensive or is it cheap going over here Is bitcoin expensive or is it cheap right now? And these are the big questions that you have to ask yourself So mvrv very simple. Just take a look at the line itself and then just go from there So that would take care of the mvrv score. Let's move on Into our second caller two-year ma multiplier. So this one again It's a Reasonably accurate and we can take a look forward. How does this one work? Well, again, it's right here Highlights periods where buying or selling bitcoin during these times would have produced outsized returns Uses a moving average line two-year ma as a multiplication that moving average times two-year ma times five Buying bitcoin when the price drops below the two-year ma green line has historically Generated outsized returns selling bitcoin prices go above the two-year has historically been effective for taking profit So let's see if that actually worked out. So again 2014 that looks about a pretty good time When we have bitcoin prices at $275 305 2000 again 2015 209 and so on and so forth Which if you just want to wait until 2017 and use the pie cycle top Hey, you would have gone from 245 dollars to roughly 20,000 dollars. So not too bad moving forward Again, there is this dip like we just saw And the mvrv score. This was a great time 2018 3,700 dollars 3570 3589 4,055 again, is this cheap or is this expensive moving forward again? It's the same thing that we just saw with the last one roughly This one went a little bit A little bit shallower and it said may 8th was a pretty good time to accumulate maybe 34,000 31,000 again, this is why I'm talking about using two Three four different indicators because in all honesty 34,000 wasn't a great one But if you had to wait until around june when it was 26,000 right now, you'd been okay. You didn't feel okay actually june 15th 22,000 575 which is exactly what it is right now And that's why we want to use two just to verify it moving on to the third one Well multiple what is this this again another indicator? Metric looks at the supply side of bitcoins economy bitcoin miners and the revenue well multiple is calculated by dividing the daily issuance value of bitcoins by the 365 day moving average of the daily issuance value It uses the red band on the chart to show when minor revenues and usd terms are significantly higher than historical norms in this case The 365 day moving average these periods have been when the price of bitcoin has also reached its major high So the pile multiple can be useful forecasting tool debatable But again other tools take a look at and you can just see right here as the price For miners to sell it goes super high pretty good idea. Maybe to take a look at selling So again it went up super high here in 2013 Right here. It didn't hit the very top top But again, it's not about the tops It's just about trying to hit as close as you possibly can So again over here not so great It didn't even hit into this this pink cell zone When it was uh april 10th 11th, which is why we like to use multiple ones But if I took a look at this and say wow, we're entering into this area Maybe i'm gonna wait, but then I go back and go Well, you know what if I take a look at the pi cycle top You know, this was actually a pretty good time to sell or the n upl Well, actually it's in this accumulation zone that are in this uh cell zone I don't think it's going to get all the way up to here. So again, this to me is not a great Um top indicator, but as far as like a bottom indicator, that's why I put it there I think sure may 24 2020 9300 9600 I would buy then and then of course down here. Maybe not and then of course if we take a look At this time frame Again the same thing over and over again Uh, this was it says in june 18th would have been a good time When we had yeah bitcoin at 19 9 bitcoin 19 2 19 6 208 13 so again not a bad time, but not super accurate in the last one I'll make mention of is the reserve risk and reserve risk is a bottom caller I don't like it as a top one and uh, here's what we have reserve risk allows us to visualize the confidence Amongst long-term bitcoin holders Roll to the price of bitcoin at a given moment in time when confidence is high And price is low. There's a tract of risk reward. Again, it's all psychology. It's all groupthink in my opinion So invest in bitcoin at that time in the green zone when confidence is low and price is high Risk reward is unattractive and people start to take profits Green zone has produced outside returns over time. So we take a look at this same type of thing We can go all the way back 2014 This is actually and this is why it's not that super accurate because it's a very long band But you can just group this with the other three and go well 200 bucks on 2015 not too bad 245 367 all right 641 not so great and if we kind of go forward Did it hit this one? let's see So yeah, I did pretty well actually 2018 the same time I was buying bitcoin 4,040 100 4166 Just longer extended frames though almost $6,000 up to here But again in hindsight, does it really matter and then lastly the last time period When we want to say it around june 13th or so that it hit that No, so it was saying that 40 again 41,000 was a good time to buy. I don't think it was a good time to buy 40 39 and it didn't really it was stayed in this channel for quite some time 28,000 Intel down here. So again This is like I say probably the least accurate indicator And of course I talk about those and I give them a cycle top Precisions like pi cycle top is a nine out of ten Seven out of ten for nupl time and risk is about an eight for the bottoms I'll say mvrv is about a nine t your ma is about an eight 12 multiples six or seven the reserve risk is about a five So you can find all these Over at dan teachers crypto. It's 100 website. It's free always will be free and I made that because I want to give everybody as much information as they possibly can And go from there and that's it for today. So look, no, that was a little bit longer, but I think Just like we talked about If we can have a plan of action and we can stick with that plan Just like the story that we saw in the very beginning Whatever that plan is you made that plan during its sanest moment So don't get swept up into the fomo. Don't get swept up into the fear and the greed and everything else Set your plan set your course your compass and go in that direction That's it for today. So look like today's video and give it a thumbs up consider subscribing We talk about mostly uh news every day, but then sometimes we do videos like this to to benefit us moving forward That's it. So thanks so much for stopping by appreciate it. I'll see you on the next one