 Okay, it is 12.15 in London. Welcome to this weekly charting analysis webinar with myself, Jasper Lawler at CMC Markets. Well, definitely an interesting end to last week. Big start to this week in European markets. We're seeing quite a big sell-off in stocks, so we'll discuss that shortly. And we'll see if it's going to end anytime soon, or if there are some opportunities to ride it down. We have the risk warning on the screens now. Please take your time to read through those. Any questions at all, please just send them through the Q&A box or the chat box and I'll be happy to answer those as best I can at any point in the webinar, which should be about 30 minutes long, so finish at 12.45. There we have it. So, as you can see from the short-term hourly charts here, certainly the equity would also, to some extent, the oil market seeing some pretty sharp declines here. This is the Dow Jones. As of the start of Friday, we're up around 1,800. As of today, Monday, we're looking at an open near 1,700. So, a 600 point collapse in just a couple of days. You know, certainly some bigger moves in the past, but given the fact that the S&P 500 didn't move up or down more than 1% in 43 trading days, actually 2% has come as a bit of a shocker to markets. And you'll be unsurprised to hear that the main reason for it has been central banks, most importantly being the Fed, and increased chances of a rate rise. Now, I've got only on the screen at the moment, but I'll just show you quickly that we do offer, obviously, bonds for trading. And just to show you here that this particular chart goes a long way to explain the kind of fear that's taking place at markets. This is our chart for the benchmark German Bund, and you can see here that we're breaking some pretty key areas of support. If I can use my line tool to look through these peaks here, down to this peak, which obviously corresponds to this spike low down here, we've opened lower today, and one of the kind of hallmarks of this fall-off in the Bund price is that we've now pushed up back above into positive yields for German 10-year debt. And so that's a big marker point. And similar things happening in the US. So if I actually just type, this is always a test for, that's our ETF. It's going to paint pretty much the same picture that you can see here. This is a pretty tight range, but as of today, we're breaking down through that support in the Treasury bond market. Just using some simple support and resistance analysis here, let me put it on the full screen. Here you can see that, yes, this is potentially quite a game-changer we're seeing in markets in the last couple of days, but we're breaking out of this range that we've been in for a while. The complacency that the Fed just isn't going to do anything seems to be giving way to some genuine fear that the Fed may actually hike rates in September. One of the main events to look out for today is we've got a speech from Dale Brenard, who she is typically a pretty dovish Fed member, but the worry is that she'll use a quite lately organised speech today, I think it was only arranged on Thursday or Friday last week, to signal a change of heart. She goes from dove to hawk and signals that the Fed may be about to hike rates in September, because they're just about to enter their quiet period. Normally they're not really allowed to give any speeches or give any opinions about a week or so before the Fed rate decision. We've got a quick question here, just about the oversold nature of the RSI on the short time frame. Does the fact that we're oversold in the short term mean that we're about to see a bounce? Well, to trouble with the momentum indicators, let me just pull up the US30 chart here, that same one we were looking at. Oh, maybe I can pull up my own one, actually. I'm going to leave that as it is. I'm going to pull up my chart that I have here with a few more squealing lines on it. This is our daily chart, I'll discuss that in a minute. But obviously, yeah, a pretty hefty sell-off here. Now, obviously the immediate tempting thought and, you know, the question here, to form someone who is saying the first time, I'm not sure if this means the first time trading, perhaps maybe close to at least. The temptation for a neophyte trader is, okay, webinar, fair enough, fair enough. Nonetheless, just worth pointing out that the temptation for neophyte traders is to see the market has dropped and think, okay, obviously the general logic in markets is to buy low, sell high, markets drop, let me buy it. And then, you know, you have indicators like this RSI, which obviously is heavily oversold down here, you know, got as low as five, you know, when you consider that 30 is considered oversold, you know, to some extent, it appears to be an opportunity, you would think. But obviously, we've been at below 30 on an hourly timeframe since here. Buying all the way down here based on an oversold nature would obviously clearly have been a mistake. Now, obviously you can wait for some signs of divergence in the oversold area, which we're starting to get now with a low-reformed here and then maybe a new higher-low-formed here. That increases your order slightly. And then obviously you can wait for the RSI to cross back through the 30 area to come out of oversold, potentially pushing price up near these highs somewhere with an opportunity to buy on the breakout. I would suggest that there's no one good answer to this, whether to use the one-hour chart oversold area as a time to buy. The thing is, it doesn't work by itself every time, like any technical indicator, just because the RSI is oversold doesn't mean it's a good time to buy. You have to look at the context of it. If we're in a nice strong uptrend and we're just correcting down in the short term, then in my mind would be the time to go look at an hourly chart and think, okay, how can I use the RSI just to tell me when the market's oversold in the short term and the little dip is over and I'm expecting continuation of the uptrend, at least to the previous high. That would be the time for me to be buying not, probably, in this kind of area when it seems like we're actually seeing quite a serious technical breakdown in markets. Now, as you can see here, we've dropped through the 18,000 figure, so it clearly will have wiped out a few stops below 18,000 for whoever was buying down there and would stop shortly below. But you can see from this consolidation back in November of 2015, along with a few kind of pivot swings in through this year, the sort of 1700 type area, I've got it, is about 17,920. Clearly it is a potential area of support in the market, so that support line, in conjunction with an oversold RSI, are two considerations for going along the market, but nonetheless, to my mind, the fact that we're breaking down some of these recent support areas suggests a changed state of play, and while I wouldn't necessarily advocating going short the market, except on a very small time frame, at the moment, I think the bias in the market has switched to the short side for the time being. And I think it's certainly, depending on how long you're looking to hold on to the trade for, it's fairly risky buying the market down at these levels after this sharp breakdown. I think any retreatments in the market are going to be fairly short lived. Now that said, the moves for these sharp moves is largely to do with the Fed, and I think we can expect some more volatility going into the Fed, which is obviously great for trading. And as much as I'm saying, I think the market trend has changed, often the best move is going against the herd. And if, for example, this key speech later on from Len Bernard turned out to be a total red herring, and in fact, she doesn't give any kind of hawkish sign, which I think is probably quite likely actually, then maybe that would be seen as a positive thing for the market, that actually the Fed is not going to be hiking rates this time around, and then we could see an immediate recovery and most risky asset like US stocks. So, if you think maybe this speech will be a misnomer, give a little read around that, and look at this area of potential support around the 17900, maybe wait for that RSI oversold area to come out of oversold. You've got a few things lining up there, which maybe supports a rebound in prices. It would probably not be my choice, but I can see, you've got multiple pieces of evidence there why that could work. It's not an outright bad idea in my mind, but I tend to favor the momentum at the moment, and I think the momentum is to the downside. A bit of a long-winded answer, but I hope that was useful, and it has helped us discuss the daily time frame in the US 30, but I'll pull out quickly to the weekly, give us a bit more context. For those of you attending last week, you remember I was saying that this was the previous all-time high made in May last year, and what I was saying is that we've basically been consolidating above that, and obviously last week when we were talking, when the price was up here above for that consolidation area, I was saying that when we break down through that consolidation area, it's probably going to lead to a pretty hefty sell-off, and it has so far. We really were in a very tight range. To my mind, that old high was the breaking point, and we just heftily closed down there last week. We've run through that first possible area of support from that old peak. There's two kind of weekly highs. We've closed below there. We're down at the next support. The general environment that we're looking at here is support is being broken, and if you look here, this was the resistance we made in July. The resistance held. Resistance held, support being broken. That's the general time, that is a seller's market right there. That's the definition of it. We're in an uptrend if support is holding and resistance is being broken. At the moment, supports are being broken, resistance are holding. So there's going to be some sort of rebound, and so that will be the next test. Probably this peak, which didn't really do much on the way down, around the 18-100, and then if we can get a decent rebound up to the 18-250, will be a test for the market on the upside. Can the resistance hold after the support breaks? That will be some confirmation that the market is in a downward track. What I did say last week, and I'll reiterate today, there isn't too much support below 18,000 down to 17-100. You can see these couple of weekly swing lows down here. Arguably, up here it's just above 17-300 I think, just because of these swing lows here in this consolidation area here, kind of just had a spike down from, could support the market. But to my mind, it looks like we're headed down to that 17-100-ish should this sell-off continue, and we're going to close, maybe even just for the day, below 17-930. Always helps to use a bit of fib analysis, just to confirm any potential areas of support. So as I highlighted, I think I highlighted the same thing last week. If I actually use the proper high, you can see that the 50% retracement is sitting right there. But also the 38.2 is not as strong support is also sitting kind of along some points in which the market's reversed in the past too. So watch out for this area. If we do, again, start showing signs of buyers coming in with reversal candlestick patterns, and maybe something on the momentum if you're using that, then be aware of that support. I'd say the next stronger level is here, but we might not need to get there. Okay, we've talked a lot about US markets. Let's move swiftly on to the UK. It is actually quite a big week for UK economic data. Probably going to be a bigger impact on the pound than the UK 100. But let's have a look at the UK 100 first. So similar idea here. We've seen something akin to a double top. Didn't quite make it to the old high, failure swing to it. So the resistance has held. Didn't make it through the old high and support's being broken. And you can see here, this is just how markets operate here. This was a weekly swing point, which you can see better on the weekly chart. There was a high there, and we got a strong bounce off it, weren't able to take out the high, and then went up closing below it. There was a big bearish signal by the lower close last week. And then just didn't really get the chance. So anyone with stops below those lows didn't get the chance to close out in those levels today. We've made a gap lower at the start of trading on Monday. So you can tell how that previous swing low was significant, because basically it sits right in the middle of this gap which the market's made as it's to open a new week. So I think it's fairly clear cut from these swing lows that the next area of support's about the 6'6'10'. And I can't see any particular reason why the market wouldn't want to challenge that, unless sentiment really does change on a dime and we get more positive again. Obviously these support levels aren't perfect, so we could pull off slightly before it or slightly beneath it, but I think that's quite a strong area, which could get some sort of rebound, but again the momentum seems to have shifted now to the downside. And it would make sense to me that we get some kind of pullback to this zone of resistance that was in place for less than half of last year and the first half of this year before we broke out in the week following the Brexit vote. So that's basically the 6'500' kind of area. And that's also the 200' week moving average as well, so a couple of reasons the market might want to retest that area. We'll look at the Germany 32. This trend line that we mentioned last week has certainly played out. I said that slightly unconventionally drawn, but a series of nice highs through there. And it's tried to get through once, fallen down. I said last week that this actually looked promising to me for a breakout, the fact that it had come down and rebounded so quickly for a second test, it looked like it was going to break higher. Obviously that's not panned out. We've seen a bearish and golfing candlestick just about last week with it starting higher and finishing lower than the prior week. And so in the short term you can see on the daily chart better that we've got a pretty clean cut double top here pattern and we're sitting right on the neckline. Possibly some different ways to draw this neckline depending on whether you're using the lows or the close. There's a series of closes in here at 10-500, so that would be maybe a more aggressive in terms of when the pattern's begun and that would kind of be backed up by this gap down to the next support of this actually low here. This would be more aggressive entry, but obviously the exit would be more conservative. If you're projecting the height of this, if we're using the height of this pattern as an idea as to where maybe a first area of support would be on the breakdown, then I think about 9-9-80 would be based on this swing low here. It would be where it takes us down maybe to this sort of swing area down here. But if we use, let's see if I can do this all in one go, if we use something a bit more conservative like the 10-500, then actually maybe the objective is just down here at about 10-180. So we're already on our way there, but to my mind it looks like we've got a bit more way to go down through the 50 mark on the daily RSI and a bit of a sort of head and shoulders reversal in the RSI as well. Obviously the big event in Europe was the ECB last week and that kind of kicked off this. If you've already been reading my notes on the platform, I sort of said something similar this morning in the morning update, but equally, just this general point here that the drop across the bond market began when the ECB President Mario Draghi said that Governing Pouncell did not discuss extending its asset purchase program. So the ECB, by not saying anything, not saying it's going to do its own extra stimulus is obviously that's a concern in and of itself because especially for these bond holders who are buying bonds for the capital appreciation knowing they've got a negative yield to actually losing money on the interest, but making money because the prices are going higher, they're all suddenly scared and selling off because of the fact that the ECB may not even continue its asset purchase program. It probably will, but it hasn't even discussed it apparently in this last meeting. So that was a worry in itself, but there's also just the fact that maybe they're holding off from really saying or doing anything because the Fed may do the hard work for them by raising rates in September. So that's a dual concern, both in Europe and more globally for stock markets. So if you believe that, obviously that's a fundamental backing for this breakdown in price. If you think the Fed isn't likely to raise rates in September, maybe you're looking for opportunities to buy in this selloff. Let's switch gears to currencies now. I will start with the pound actually just because we have basically a lot of economic data for the UK this week. We've got inflation, which we also have inflation for the US and Europe, so it'll be interesting contrast to the three. We've got retail sales, we also got unemployment data, and of course, pitting all those together, we've got the Bank of England setting its interest rate policy on Thursday. So if memory serves, should have all that data in front of it when it makes its decision. Is that right? As soon as I say that I'm tempted to think maybe it doesn't have the retail sales. Let's have a look. Let's have a look at our calendar, just to see if I'm giving you the right kind of information here. Friday. US CPI, but no. No, I think I was right to say that. The retail sales data is out on Thursday pre the Bank of England decision. So set your alerts there. Set your alert in the calendar. It's the month on month figure that gets reported the most. So obviously expecting a decline after a big jump in July. So let's see what August has to bring. With a decline forecast, that's basically kind of coming off the British retail consortium numbers. That had a big drop of 1%. That's probably scared a few forecasters, but the other economic data for the UK has been pretty strong. A good chance of beating that data, I'd suggest. Brexit fearmonger is getting it wrong so far, which suggests that they're probably going to get it wrong on this too. So scope on the economic data fund, that would be, but obviously, even if we do get a positive beat on retail sales, it might get a little pop in the pound, but it will be right before the Bank of England meeting, so people will probably be sitting on their hands. Then let's have a look. Then we've got the unemployment data and, importantly, the wage data as well, happening on Wednesday. There will be the two main ones to look out for. Inflation is before that. I think inflation is on Tuesday, but words from the Bank of England recently have sort of suggested they're going to look through any rise in inflation. So that data probably doesn't have as much influence as the next two that I just showed. So look at the pound here. Good to keep the general context of where we are. We're in a range. So we're in a 128.5 to 134 range, basically. And you can see that we've come off just short of the top of the range, basically just with a failure to hold above 134 last week, and we've pulled off. And now we're back down at the previous, kind of swing high here on the daily chart. We've, to some extent, pushed through it, and we're trying to do it again at the moment. You could take these two levels here. So obviously you can use the highs or you can use the opens and the closes as what you've deemed to be the most important for the market. But this sort of area here is currently supporting the price. But if we do start to push lower again, then, obviously, again, that support giving way and resistance up here, seemingly holding, would suggest a bit more of a bearish bias for the market. Getting slammed with phone calls as per usual during the webinar. Hold on. Okay, there we are. So that 132.50 midpoint is a key area of support at this point and will sort of roughly, if we get enough pushed down, coincide about with the 50 point in the RSI. So the point is here that we're basically making within this broader range, we're making higher highs and higher lows. And so what we're looking for is at some point that the market to form the next higher low. But the difference now is that we have come up very close to that old resistance and there's a good chance that we've come out of this period of high highs and lows and just trend back down towards the bottom of the range again. So the period at which you can be more confident to buy the lows somewhere near the old swing highs rather than down at the old swing lows is once you've actually broken out of the range and you're more confident of turning into a trending environment on the longer term. So I'm positive on the data and I don't think the Bank of England are going to raise rates but obviously we've got the dollar counter to all that's happening in the UK. So there's increasing speculation that the Fed will raise rates and that's positive for the dollar and by nature weak for the pound. So my feeling is that we could end up pushing lower again. Perhaps down to the 131 which has been quite a major support since the Brexit vote or just below 130.70 down through here. So for some reason taking my time a bit today we've barely got through a lot of the currencies. Let's have a quick look at the euro. I mean I say this every time very choppy so we've got to push up towards resistance and we've sold off down there and we're trying to get down through to support here but very minimal trend. Certainly lots of opportunities to sell support by resistance in a sort of choppy sideways type market so if you see signs of a turnaround at an area of support resistance there's quite a good chance it will get there because there just isn't really any directional bias here and I don't think the ECB helped gain us any extra bias. Probably we're going to be looking for the Fed to tell us if we can break higher in the euro if they don't do anything or lower if suddenly it looks like the Fed is raising rates. Got a question on Dolly Yen so that's good timing because I'm about to get into that right now. So we're mentioning this downslaping trend line for a while the market is kind of chopping around it a bit. We've got it on the weekly chart I actually like the look a bit better on the daily chart if we pull out a bit. So that's where we are. We've got the false breakout, we've got the touchdown broke through a couple of supports but then even did a little false breakout of this swing low here and then held it pushed up to 104 and now we're back down through the trend line again so market basically trying to decide whether a bottom has been put in at 100. Again from the Fed side if you think the Fed is raising rates then that's Dolly Yen positive sign. All sorts of news coming out of the Bank of Japan they're kind of holding discussions to review their monetary policy at the moment we did get some rumors last week that they could be willing to push interest rates further into the negative that again would be positive Dolly Yen Well if you think that actually the Bank of Japan sort of run out of tools in the toolbox and that the Fed is not going to raise rates that would be a reason to believe this trend line is sort of going to hold in the end and then we end up breaking 100. Okay let's just touch on oil we've obviously had quite a sharp decline in the oil market pull at the Brent chart so we've basically touched on close to 50 and the market rolled over again let me go down to there so obviously in this most recent rally we've got as far as 51 we're pulled back this time we've got just under 50 and we're pulling back so seems like some generally lower peaks being put in in oil the main factors being at the moment this OPEC meeting this month but they will say last week in terms of US production there was a massive draw in inventories which helped push the prices higher but then people later realized that actually it was basically due to those storms on the East Coast that delayed imports of oil and made production more difficult in the US in the short term it's not a big long term factor really and the number of oil rigs increased according to data on Friday showing that US producers still quite keen on expanding production with prices around $50 so that's pushed the prices lower we're going to be in a bit of a choppy range until we get the results from this OPEC meeting but if we do pull out to that weekly chart again you can see that basically resistance has held here there's the high there's a series of kind of swing peaks we've got through that and at the moment we're kind of pulling down we've failed from that short term resistance to come down so it seems like the resistance has held here was a big swing area of support that gave way and there wasn't really a big resistance until there and that held so it seems like resistance to holding supports are giving way my slight bias here is to the downside even though we're kind of in a range at the moment so 46 is basically in the middle of the 41 to 51 range so you're at the midpoint now which is the kind of worst scenario for taking trades you want to be shorting near the top going along near the bottom obviously but I would say in general especially on the short term basis I'm looking more favorably to the short side I think based on that kind of long term support resistance type analysis and with just the kind of fundamental idea I very much doubt OPEC is going to freeze production at the meeting this month I don't think Iran and Saudi Arabia can come to any kind of agreement and that US rig data just kind of confirms that US production is still still kind of doing quite well and if anything the decline in US production is slowing down probably so yeah just saw your question Warren so I think I was sort of half answered it on there so I hope that helps and I think finally we're a couple of minutes over here we're not going too crazy I'm hoping not making any of you late for your get back to lunch back to get out from your lunch break but if we just touch on oil on gold sorry obviously gold is very sensitive to the feds so interesting that gold is actually pulling back in the last few days and obviously that's what you'd expect if a fed rate rise was looking more likely you know obviously it doesn't bear any interest and it's based on dollars so two just obvious reasons why gold would be less in demand if the fed is in fact expected to raise rates got a not exactly perfect but working to some degree trend line down through the highs here so lower highs being made and this support was taken out but we found support at the old previous swing point that caused a good old rally higher we did break through what could have been support there that made me quite positive on the gold price but obviously we failed at the major kind of swing highs here and this trend line seems to be working quite well so again kind of in the midpoint of its range that's been in recently so not optimal trading scenario you know here I'd highlighted that the downside looked more favorable after breaking that support but we did come up and kind of do the same thing again here so we're in a range it's difficult to call long term I'm still quite positive on gold but if obviously the fed does raise rates that's going to be a negative in the short term the one to watch out is obviously the 1,300 you know that's a big level a lot of people will have their stops below there so watch out if we get a false break below with the banks trying to pick up everyone stops beneath and then using those sell orders to buy them all up and buy the market higher that's certainly a possibility because it's such an obvious level at this point that lots of stop losses will be down here but nonetheless I think probably if we get a close for the day particularly the week below 1,300 then we're probably just looking pretty hefty to climb down to 1,250 again okay I'm going to end the recording here but just got a quick question on the client's sentiment so I can answer that once I've stopped this recording okay