 So, I just wanted to say, first off, thank you very much for having us. These two reports actually would not are very much the progeny of some Irish kinfolk, at Lisa Rine, who's not here but was formerly the IEA, so she really kicked the ball off on the multiple benefits report. Lorcan here as well, who was very big in producing the energy efficiency marker report which we'll get into later. Emer Danehee as well, who provided a lot of the background analysis so that, in a way, that's one of the reasons why we're here is just to say thanks and to, you know, promote this type of work here in Ireland and it's, you've been a big help in the work that we've been doing so far. So, basically the energy efficiency unit at the IEA has really taken a step forward within the organization. The outgoing executive director, Maria van der Hoven, has really prioritized energy efficiency. She's really recognized the role that it has. You know, the IEA tends sometimes have to have an image of being, you know, this stuffy organization that looks at oil and coal and that kind of thing, but actually we're very much committed to sustainability and climate change and energy efficiency places extremely prominently there and she's been a big advocate. So, the energy efficiency unit of which we're a part of has really stepped up and what we've really noticed is that energy efficiency, I mean, we're talking with people such as yourself, which I imagine are already the, you're already the choir, we're preaching to the choir here in a way, but what the goal of a lot of these reports is, is to really bridge that gap between the departments of energy and that kind of thing to the department of finance to other policymakers trying to make energy efficiency more relevant to them. So, that's, sorry, where the multiple benefits comes in. So, this is our flower, it's the famous flower, I don't know if you've seen it before, but basically the multiple benefits of energy efficiency has four objectives. We want to raise awareness for energy efficiency. We want to increase the analytical substance that's going on in energy efficiency. It's incredibly broad and there's a lot of different ways you can attack it as this flower demonstrates. We want to identify further methodological tools for you and then, you know, we want to build capacity and increase kind of the scholarship, the canon around energy efficiency takes place within an eye to making policy makers, to making policy easier for you, for you to go to policy makers and say, hey, energy efficiency isn't some foofy, hippie idea. These are really important and these are measurable benefits. Keyword here is measurable. We're not just picking things out of the air. The multiple benefits report really tries to collate the existing research and we've done research of our own to describe what the quantifiable benefits are of energy efficiency. So, of that 18, you know, there's a lot of overlap in that kind of thing. But of the 18, we've decided to tackle five. Each one of these is a huge piece of work in and of itself. But of the five we looked at, you know, there were public budgets, energy delivery, the macro-economic impacts. Oh, there's Lisa. Hi. Yeah. I was just talking about the health and industrial productivity. So we'll just get a little bit into each one. It's all in the report and, you know, we're feeling generous and so if you send us an email, we can definitely get the hook you up with one of the reports at a later date. So there we go. So energy delivery, energy system operators, what energy efficiency does is it provides valuable overhead, valuable overhead, basically, to energy system operators. This is an area of research and interest that we're pursuing right now, the role of energy efficiency within the utility business model and how we can prioritize. Utilities are non-trivial investors in energy efficiency for the most part, and how can we actually monetize these benefits. So as you see here, I mean, there's really a litany of benefits, much more than the cost of new generation for energy efficiency. The question is really, how do we create a business model and regulatory framework to have that happen? And that's so my point here being is that we are definitely interested in this and where this is an area for inquiry in the market report 2015, which I'll get in near the end. But first benefit, extremely valuable to an energy system, energy system operators. The next one is industrial productivity. You know, this is basically a case study analysis and analysis of different research efforts that have looked into industries that have invested more in industrial productivity. One of the best pieces of analysis that's actually not in the chapter, but that came out shortly thereafter was in Australia where they looked at kind of the top five, a quartile investment in energy savings among the industry. And those in the top quartile were on average 22% more profitable. Those in the top quartile of energy efficiency investments were 22% more profitable than the mean in that industry. So industrial productivity, I mean, basically each dollar invested in energy savings in industry, we estimate creates $2.5 of value from productivity improvements in industry. So it's a potentially huge source of competitiveness improving and, you know, business security and resilience improving of major industries which, you know, each country has somewhat of a general policy focus on, especially in the OECD countries. Health care, the health benefits of energy efficiency really are what has stolen the show. And there's reason for that. I mean, there's real epidemiological research that can quantify health benefits to a very tight resolution, to a very specific resolution. And what we found is that there hasn't been a number of research efforts looking at what energy efficiency is saving in health, but there's a couple key examples, especially in New Zealand, where that 99% of the benefits of the Warm Up New Zealand program, 99% of the net benefits were from health improvements. Savings and health costs actually to the health system. This is one of the things we like to really focus on is how multiple benefits helps cross-pollinate between departments, government departments especially, and how multiple benefits allows energy efficiency policymakers to come to the cabinet table and to present energy efficiency in a more holistic, multi-department kind of way. When we're engaging on health programs, how can energy efficiency factor into that? When we're looking at industrial programs, industrial policy, how energy efficiency places, these are all ways that energy departments themselves can have a greater role, that we believe that they can have a greater role around the government cabinet table and on the government agenda. There's a lot on the slide, but basically energy efficiency improves public budgets. One of the most direct, you know, government spending in and of itself, improving their own buildings is a very useful lever, a very direct action that governments can take. And what we found is that, you know, energy efficiency for every dollar invested, you get another $2 back in energy savings. So they'd more than pay for themselves from the government side of the ledger. You know, this is trying to ring true for people in finance and treasury departments, that kind of thing, saying, you know, this is real, this will improve our balance sheet, this will improve our financial statements. I won't get deeply into all this, but, you know, if you want the report, evaluate this at length. You know, macroeconomic impacts, this is, you know, we're getting larger and larger, headier and headier. But the basic idea is that, you know, energy efficiency is essentially one of the main tenets of capitalism, in a way. You know, it's doing more with less, it's becoming more productive, needing less energy inputs. Energy is basically a foundational piece of economic and human activity. You don't do anything without energy inputs. So the more that you do with the less energy that you consume, essentially the more productive you're becoming. There's a huge range of different estimates on how much extra-economic productivity you're getting from energy efficiency. But, you know, one product study that we looked at says that for every dollar invested to reduce primary energy demand in the country, you were getting anywhere from 0.9 to 3.5 dollars in more, value-added, more output of your economy. So there's a real key message here in that the more efficient you become, basically the wealthier that more wealth you're able to generate. So, just to summarize the multiple benefits, I mean, this isn't just on energy savings. There's a whole wealth of it. One of the examples I like to bring up is actually from Native Canada is Manitoba Hydro built what they brag as one of the most energy efficient commercial building in the world. And they sold this to the government saying, you know, on a typical payback period, this is going to pay back in 35 years, this highly energy efficient building. Not great, okay? They said, but we think that there's a lot of multiple benefits to be had. And actually prior to building a new building they had consciously tracked sick days from mis-employees, average employee productivity, they found that actually once we incorporate all these new benefits into this highly efficient building, the payback period produced itself down to about 10 years, from 35 to 10 years. And these are real. This is not, employee outlays, these kind of, you know, these liabilities are real on Manitoba Hydro's balance sheet. And that's how they did it. So it's not even really about energy savings. It's about all the other benefits that it's providing. And, you know, this is just a cursory scan of what it is that we've looked at in this report. So what is our recommendations on multiple benefits? Well, basically we can start using this type of policy lens when making energy efficiency policy. We need to basically be innovative. There is no set framework. There's no gospel on how to do multiple benefits. But that means that we owe it to ourselves to kind of be innovative and incorporate these benefits and how or which way that we're both selling and developing policy. And that basically more work needs to happen to start gravitating into uniform definitions on how to evaluate the benefits in other cells. So that's where the IEA is going on our multiple benefit work. We want to basically spread this out, have other organizations in different countries try this. We feel like we've kind of stuck our neck out on this in a way. And we want other people to then feedback to us what the best ways to do it are. And we're very interested in convening and holding sessions to get more uniformity or get more agreement on what the best way forward is on multiple benefits. So that's multiple benefits. I mean, that's actually, I wasn't directly involved in that. This is kind of what my early work is, which is the energy efficiency market report. Again, the energy efficiency market report is another effort to put bullets in the chamber for policy analysts to go to policy makers, decision makers, and say, hey, this is real. Let's start doing some real innovative policy here. So this was the very first energy efficiency market report as of 2013. I'm not responsible for that cover. And here's, look at that. There's the 2014 market report, which is what Lorcan and I primarily worked on and which I managed. So the first question is, why do we evaluate a market for energy efficiency? Well, because we have market reports for all of these fuels. And I guess where I'm going is is that we also believe at the IA that energy efficiency should be considered a fuel. And the more base aspect we were talking just over coffee before this is trying to make energy efficiency sexy. Well, you know, I don't know if talking about it with the room full of policy analysts will ever make it sexy. But the way that people talk about gas and pipelines and macho and billions of dollars and infrastructure, you know, what we want to say is actually energy efficiency has that same type of market framework. It's diffuse and disaggregated, but there's still same volumes of capital, of cash, of money, of research and development going into energy efficiency, just as there is on shale gas production and pipelines and all the renewable energy, all of that. Energy efficiency is right there with them, as we will show you. So, that chart didn't work out. Okay, well, it's kind of a note so you don't hear. What this shows is this is a graph from the WIO 2012 World Energy Outlook. And this is how the United States was going to become fossil fuel independent by 2035. And this is a big headline in the WIO 2012, fossil fuel independence. Wow, my God. This is all about tide oil. This is all about shale gas. This is all about these bright guys, these capitalists and roughnecks and all of that, you know, doing that. And so, oh no. Okay, so that is that, that new supply is that, is those various shades of violet there. That is what new supply is providing to make sure that the United States becomes energy independent. There's a whole other wedge there and guess what it is? That's energy efficiency. Energy efficiency is actually a larger wedge to reduce net imports to the point that the United States becomes fossil fuel independent. But that didn't make the headlines. That didn't make the press release of the WIO. That wasn't what people were talking about. But actually it's larger. It's real. The adoption of energy efficient stock is what is the greater wedge to achieve oil independence for the United States, at least according to the WIO's model. How big is that? Well, here's, oh boy. I guess this is a MAC issue. So this goes back to 1973 and not that the end there is 2011. And this shows for 11 of the major IEA countries representing about 74% of energy demand in the IEA, the evolution of total final consumption and the consumption of all fuels. And right there is the savings from energy efficiency over that time. So what that shows is the gradual adoption of more energy efficient stock in all of our energy sectors. So our more energy efficient vehicles, more energy efficient TVs. So instead of those big giant cathode ray TVs we have plasma TVs and all that. This gradual adoption over the past four decades has produced more in savings than the consumption of any one fuel. And in fact the savings from energy efficiency are about 60% of total final consumption for those 11 IEA countries. What's really important is that that gray line there is total final consumption since 1973. And if you look at it, it's actually relatively flat. And the reason for that basically is energy efficiency. Had we not improved the efficiency of all of our end use energies consuming stock, total final consumption would have been about 60% higher, hypothetically speaking. Now if there's economists in the room you're probably breaking out in cold sweats. It might be saying that prices would adjust and that we wouldn't have consumed that much more energy. That's true, but actually what would have happened is that our welfare just would have been a lot lower. Our energy prices would have been higher and we just wouldn't have been doing nearly as much with energy. So that's what energy efficiency has enabled for us. So that's kind of the starting point for the market report. That savings, all of that adoption is a real market. That's the people buying new TVs, new homes, more efficient homes, more efficient heaters, all of that. So let's try and quantify it. Let's try and say, hey, what does this really mean in context to the other fuels? How big is this market? So what we found is actually the market is very large indeed. It's about 310 to 360 billion. It's conceptual and what we've talked about is very much, it's definitional on how you define what the market is and then that will define, that will zero in on what type of value that you create for it. But we've run this by a number of experts and we do believe this is a sound estimate of about 300 billion, which means that energy efficiency is still the first fuel in the 1198 countries, which then leads us to say that that's probably the first fuel globally and that the market itself is diffuse, extensive, and anticipated to grow. So here's the content of the market report for this year. We look at how to value the market. We track progress on energy efficiency indicators for 26 IEA countries, Ireland being one of them. We look, we take a deep dive on the transport sector. It's often overlooked in energy efficiency, but transport is a huge source of potential energy efficiency improvements. And then we take a look at energy efficiency finance. That's part one, and then part two we profile 11 countries. We'll get into that briefly near the end of the report, so we did about six different methodologies to try and estimate how big the energy efficiency market was. If you're dying to know, I could send you a copy of the report. I won't worry with the details though. Only to say is that all six methodologies were around the 320 billion number. They were top-down methodologies, so again, if you're an economist, you might say, aha, top-down is always overestimates. What does the bottom-up methodology say? Well, the global energy assessment had done the bottom-up methodology, and they estimated it was $298 billion. So we feel $300 billion is a very safe estimate. And what's interesting about this graph here is this is a Monte Carlo kind of histogram of various changes and parameters and definition parameters for what the energy efficiency market is, and it's decidedly asymmetrical. So we see that actually it's likely, or potentially likely, that the energy efficiency market is larger, not smaller than $300 billion. If it's $320 billion, then that's how it compares to the other investments and the other energy fuels. So it would be the second-largest market next to upstream oil and gas. Just to put those savings in context, the past 15 years have been the discussion on the global energy system has been dominated by the role of the rise of giants, China, India, and the like, and what that extra demand is doing to the global energy system. Well, within that same time frame, energy efficiency savings are removing basically a major economy's worth of energy demand from the system. So this is a major part that's shaping our global energy system. That's often going overlooked, which leads us to say that this is the invisible powerhouse of the global energy system. If going back to 1973, as I said, is too far back, if that's too ancient history for you, then we actually did another analysis that looked, okay, let's just look at energy efficiency savings over the past decade, since 2001. What have those produced? We were able to expand the number of countries we looked at, from 11 to 18, because of the more availability, greater data availability. And we found that cumulative savings over the last decade was about 1700 million tons of oil equivalent. So that's greater than the total final consumption of the United States and Germany combined in 2011. How did we do this type of analysis? This is where Emer comes in, she helped us with a lot of this, is that we basically decomposed total final consumption for 1898 countries. Total final consumption, the consumption of energy is basically a product of various different drivers. Those large drivers are the active production growth, structural change, what the relative makeup of our economies are, and changing efficiency. So, if only our population and economy grew or changed since 2001, that is what our hypothetical energy consumption would have been, approximately 7% higher. If the structure of our economies changed, this is, you know, the offshoring, as they say, manufacturing, the growth of the commercial sector, the growth of the services sector, this is how the blue line is how TFC would have changed. Interestingly, you know, it didn't really change up until 2007, yet total final consumption was flat. Why is that? Well, because of changing efficiency. Efficiency basically offset the rise of growth of our economy and population, almost one to one, keeping TFC flat. So that's the important role of that place. After 2007, it's a bit difficult to glean a lot of insight. The recession, as you will know here, really kind of threw everything for a loop. This year we're going to look at 2012 and hopefully we can get some greater insight into, like, are we into a new phase of energy demand? Did the recession kind of kickstart us into something else? Or are we going to resume back to normal consumption patterns? So here's how a bunch of countries rate, you know, of interesting to notice that of the 12 of the 18 IEA countries that we looked at, efficiency savings work greater over the decade than the growth of GDP and the growth of our population. These are early evidence that potentially we are decoupling economic growth from energy demand and that's thanks to efficiency. Just looking very quickly at the transport market, it's a huge potential for energy efficiency. What we'll see is that policy is really going to drive this. So 70% of the global new vehicle fleet will be subject to energy efficiency standards. That's, you know, about 50 million vehicles. The story of the transport market though is really in the non-OECD. As you can see in both charts, excuse me, passenger kilometers and ton kilometers are basically flat in the OECD, but globally they're continuing to rise almost all from the non-OECD region. In the transport chapter we get, you know, you can get into these kind of high-minded philosophical discussions of what is efficiency. You know, is efficiency just the efficiency of your power train or is it the efficiency of the system? Is it the efficiency by which we're meeting energy service demand? And we go back and forth on, you know, what should we count as part of the energy efficiency market. You know, one story is if you only have the engineering efficiency of your drive train of converting chemical energy into a mode of power then we would all be flying around in air miners because they're incredibly efficient engines. But actually they're not efficient at satisfying our energy service demand, which is to move around, to go to work, to meet people, to be social, to enjoy entertainment, all of that. And so here we are, here we see, sorry about these charts, I blame McIntosh, but that freight and passenger rail can basically move a ton of goods or a person around at one tenth of the energy. And so included in these chapters we look at investments in public transit, look at investments in alternate transport infrastructure that doesn't prioritize vehicles. It's relatively small right now, it's about $195 billion, and it's not directly, it's very tenuous to say that if you build transport infrastructure then all of a sudden you're going to get a lot of people switching modes, but it is essential. It's not enough, but it's necessary if that makes any sense. And we think this is going to be a big potential market, especially in the non-OECD region. China itself has invested $160 billion in the high-speed rail network over the past five years. This high-speed rail network is longer than all other high-speed rail networks in the world combined. And so we definitely think that these are investments in efficiency. I'm concerned about time. Sure. How much time do we have? Well, I just wanted to leave time for questions and answers, so if I have an answer I'd say another 15 or 20 minutes. Yeah, yeah. I'll go very quickly. Maybe over time it's a million anyway. I think one of the words we used was invisible and energy efficiency as an invisible powerhouse. And I think it's part of the work you're doing is to make it more visible, and I think it's some very, very interesting work. And it's great to welcome Larkin back to the institute. He's been here as a guest on many an occasion and he's been working, I believe, on the energy efficiency market report also for the last year since rejoining the IEA. I did work previously in the IEA in another role and have come back. So this is still part of the energy efficiency market report presentation. This is the second thematic focus that we did. So along with transport, we took a more in-depth look at energy efficiency finance. And this is a really interesting and exciting part of the market picture. There's a lot happening around the world. Energy efficiency is expanding as a segment within energy efficiency finance. And there's a lot of innovation taking place to try and overcome barriers to energy efficiency investment that you're all familiar with, the upfront costs, payback times. So there's a lot of innovation happening in areas like energy performance contracting where an energy service company will say we'll take on the risk, we'll guarantee the savings and we'll pay ourselves out of some of the financial savings that accrue. Also areas like on-bill financing, so repaying investments through your utility bill or through in some countries your local tax bill. And so all of this is taking place around the world and being scaled up. Two kind of qualifiers. So one is that we shouldn't in talking about finance and all these exciting business models forget that most investment is still people stomping up for an energy efficient product out of their own cash and savings. It's businesses deciding to make an energy efficiency investment with their own capital. It's governments funding energy efficiency investment out of public funds. So while we do need to focus on reducing barriers to energy efficiency, finance and scaling that up, also not forgetting the demand side. There needs to be demand for energy efficiency for there to be projects to finance. But having said that that still leaves based on our 310, 320 market size that still is about 120 billion of finance. So a lot of that will still be provided by commercial banks classic loan products traditional lending. Even in that sector though we see that not only our banks thinking okay we can loan for energy renovation we can loan for various different energy efficiency investments. But also strategically they're starting to think a company, if we have a client and if they've got very high energy bills it increases their risk profile. So we can actually reduce the risk of our portfolio overall by paying more attention to energy efficiency. So one area in particular energy performance contracting that's really growing a lot around the world only put up this slide just to show you the spread of countries involved. And something you might not have guessed would be that China is the biggest market in the world in a huge factor in how they've increased the energy efficiency of their industry sector. So the second kind of half of the report is the country case studies. We won't be going through all of these. So we decided we chose particular countries and looked at them in more detail to see in reality on the ground what does all this look like all this market analysis and market size analysis that we did. So not surprisingly again China huge investments just in one five year period those savings are more than the total final energy consumption of a country like Canada for example. So it's a huge chunk of savings and huge investments to come in the current five year plan it's 200 to 270 billion dollars. A common theme across a couple of the chapters was LED lighting. You can see these exponential growth numbers in countries like Thailand and Japan and starting to happen in other countries you can imagine how big those numbers would be once India starts to move from CFLs to LED lighting. It's also chapter on Ireland with which we received inputs and collaborated a little bit with the department and with SCAI. I'd only maybe draw attention to just the energy intensity curve it's the lower curve on the right hand side which shows that even while Ireland is experiencing strong economic growth we were managing to reduce our energy intensity. There is an uptick during the recession especially in the industry sector then it comes back down and the latest year we had it slapped so this may be a question mark to be inserted there next as to what's going to happen next when we turn that curve back down or is it going to state flash or is it going to worsen so we don't do projections in this report but that's the question for you I'm sure we're interested and sure you have thoughts. We also did a decomposition so just as a world level we did the decomposition we also did one for the countries for which data was available including Ireland. It was brought down or held down by efficiency and also structure to a lesser extent in particular in the residential sector where efficiency improved by over 20% over the decades to 2011. Finally then in the chapter we also give some of the policy context that may help to explain some of those trends. EU policy is still a major driver for policy in Ireland it's the energy efficiency obligation scheme being set up energy reform, certificates and buildings but there's also a lot of really interesting policies at national level in various sectors as well I'm not going to describe or explain them all to you that's something I'm sure you could all do better than I could which is to say that there's a comprehensive spread of policies I think maybe the question for discussion is how is the uptake doing or how is the implementation in reality maybe to worry for some of these policies but that's again something we could discuss and so all of that as we've been saying is to try and say well look here's two new ways of looking at the energy efficiency market that could help thinking of it as a market as an investment opportunity and also the multiple benefits so I think that's maybe a good point to circle back and have some questions and answers Thank you