 This is covering the spread part of the fan dual podcast network a Massive Tuesday on tap for today because not only do we have the tour championship coming up this week in it before the PGA with a Lot of cash in the line We'll talk about that with branding a duela later on not only do we have NASCAR odds up for Daytona coming up on Saturday I'll break that down later as well We have 16 games on the diamond for today And we're gonna break down the top K props of the night with pitching ninja Rob Friedman getting his favorite strikeout props of the day My name is Jim Sonnis I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire.com join you to kick things off by Rob Friedman check him out on Twitter I pitching into you can find him Fox Peacock Nessan MLB pretty much everywhere Rob Once again, we are lucky with a great slate on tap for today. How are you doing on this glorious Tuesday? I am gonna need some of your energy to make it through today's day games because I mean And your intro goes really hard too, so I'm gonna need I'm all fired up now like I was dragging a little bit But now I'm ready. We'll see the I think that when you listen to the intro like I feel like a cowboy hat is necessary You know, I've never never had an inclination towards like chewing tobacco. It's like, yeah, you know We'll go towards this, you know, we'll do all the bad things for us It'll be great and I feel like that's the kind of that's the vibe I get from the intro So maybe I should tone it down a bit just to avoid bad habits. I think no No, I think it's great. And like instead of fan duel. We have a regular duel like right exactly We're in the streets, you know, we're just we're ready to brawl and it's kind of a brawl tonight too Rob because a lot of good pitchers once again tonight like some of my favorites Robbie Ray is out there We got Dylan sees Carlos Rodan is out there a lot of really fun names And like you said, you'll need the the cafe to get through all this for today. Luckily only one day game So hopefully you're scheduled with me a bit less Condensed in that regard but when you look at the board for today With all the fun options we got what's standing out to you in terms of your favorite strikeout props for today Well, I mean I got a lot because a lot of my favorite pitchers are going but I really like Dylan sees with a little extra Rest, I think he's going to be dominant a pitch. Well against the O's last A while back. I think he had like 13 K's or something like that. So I kind of like him re-energized and Then late. Yeah, I'm gonna be up late. We got Burns and Gonsolin Who like I'll watch every Corbyn Burns start because you never know what you're gonna get and And he's so good when he's home yeah, Corbyn Burns facing the Dodgers and That's a tough matchup and it's a tough situation for him to be in what do you feel like equips Burns to handle an offense? That is as difficult as that one. He has so many weapons and I think he rises to the occasion I like Corbyn Burns being challenged and just unlocking different levels of his stuff like he can dominate you with his cutter He can dominate you with his curveball his slider He's got so many weapons and then a change up to like, I mean, you know low 90s change up I don't want to sleep on that like you don't know what to expect and and I think he game plans well and Mixes up his arsenal. Well, so I look for him to do real well tonight Yeah, Burns is currently at six and a half strikeouts minus 144 on the over for him based off of the Dodgers and the issue that you know You could think about in general with Burns is repeat matchup the Dodgers just saw him last week But you mentioned that arsenal. Do you feel like pictures are better equipped for a repeat matchup when they have like 16,000 different variations of pitches they can use so it's kind of like you're seeing effectively a different picture the second time you see them Yeah, absolutely And I think he's unique among those because he's got like his arsenal in general is you know top tier Obviously as a defending Cy Young award winner, but yeah, like I think his game planning is great I think you know, I look for him to just mix it up tiny bit differently Sometimes you have an advantage going against the team the next time out because they saw you sequence one way And if you just mess them up, you know, it could bring a whole different level of problems and I see Burns doing that Yeah, absolutely. So that's Burns. Let's go back to cease six and a half strikeouts minus 128 a fan to on the over for him And it seems like Dylan cease I know he had you know, not the best start last week, but over the past two or so months He has been unhittable like just absurd. He had like a 078 era for like a two-month stretch, which is unreal How how I know that like what has he done to get to that level of filthiness, you know A lot of it is confidence and figuring out what works So like he is very slider heavy and his slider is the best pitch in the major leagues like in terms of run value so using leaning on that pitch and And he also has a lot of things he could mix up Like when you're talking about an upper 90s fastball as well as a knuckle curve You know, he's got great stuff and it's just the confidence in pounding the zone More is useful for him. Like he's you know, he's never gonna have top-tier command I don't know. I don't think but the stuff just plays and it doesn't really matter. Yeah Okay, so we're looking at cease Burns and Gonsolin for tonight. You're keeping yourself up late Rob, I want to get you to bed early with my strikeout prop Hopefully one we can cash pretty early on because that's on the east coast and that's Ranger Suarez And I want to dive into the alternate market for this one because I think I'm okay being a bit aggressive his Number to go over over five and a half strikeouts to get six plus strikeouts is plus one 22 right now in Fandall Now it is same issue. We talked about birds where it's a repeat matchup The Reds did just see him last week, but he was sick so I want to talk to you about Suarez because to me he's fascinating he Transitioned from being a reliever to a starter and somehow this year has turned into a high strikeout guy at times, too So again same question I had with Cease. How did this happen? Yeah, like I think he's a tough nut to crack as far as figuring out why it works I mean, he's very deceptive and he also changes up his pitch arsenal. He's leaning a little more on his curve ball Dropping down slider usage So I think getting that spread in velocity has increased his strikeouts as well as being around the zone More he had started out walking a bunch this year and then it's not really who he's about Oh, yeah, what he's about and I think he's he's been able to be in the zone be close and then change speeds on folks Yeah, I like that pick good. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, it's against the Reds I've got him projected for I think six point something I should have it up But I didn't because I'm not fair for that. Anyway, uh 6.37 strikeouts for Rangers for as my projection for today We'll see on that one But I do think being aggressive there is fine given the high strikeout nature of the Reds some of the guys They've lost recently. I'm okay with that one and I do feel good about that there So I do think that we're we're well equipped for Rangers Suarez for today Now I did want to touch on one more thing you'd mentioned that you're talking about the pitch mix change for Suarez And I care a lot about that personally because I want to identify on pitches are changing Do you look at data to identify that yourself or is it just because you're watching all these games? You pick up on it naturally. Are you a data person? I person? How do you kind of identify when pitches are shifting their approach? I'm a combination of it like I'll watch them I look at kind of I'll try to pick up if they're using something different if they're being or you know, if they're mostly pitching with more confidence Like I like to look at body language and figure out why this, you know If this picture feels confident in what they're throwing and then I back it up with numbers like I'll always dig deeper You know look at pitch usage to see if you know a lot of times you'll find in baseball people's eyes eyes lie a lot Yeah, and you know mind you too like I watch a lot of baseball Sometimes I'll see something and I didn't notice it before but the pitcher had been doing it for a while So I always like to back it up with numbers I'm I'm fully on board of that too a blend is the way I want to go So I love to hear that and I love to hear your picks for today Looking at Dylan sees Corbin burns Tony Gonsolin and praying for rangers while rise tonight as well That is pitching ninja Rob Friedman again. Check him out on Twitter. Check him out. Everywhere Peacock Fox Nesson MLB Rob. We appreciate the time. Good luck to you with those are tonight Hopefully you're not up too late We get some efficient games on the West Coast with a pitchers duel between Gonsolin and Burns We'll talk to you once again next week. Awesome. Thanks for having me. Thank you Rob appreciate it And again check him out on Twitter at pitching ninja if you have not done yourself the favor of following him already We're gonna get the brand to do it to break down the tour championship and the intricacies involved with that in just one second But first a college football fans the 2022 season is just days away And Fandall and Xfinity have teamed up to give you a chance to put your college football knowledge to the test introducing Xfinity unbeatable picks a free-to-play contest centered around college football's biggest games Here's how it works head to fandall.com slash free slash contest slash Xfinity dash CFB and make your predictions on which teams will win their week one matchup if your picks proved to be unbeatable You want to share $20,000 in cash prizes courtesy us of Xfinity? Xfinity unbeatable picks it's set to begin September 3rd at noon Eastern So be sure to head to fandall.com slash free slash contest Slash Xfinity dash CFB and make your picks today. No purchase Necessary let's set our sights now on the tour championship coming up this week It is an Eastlite golf course. We're talking about that with Brandon Gadoula check him out on Twitter at Gadoula 13 He is the senior managing editor of number fire comm Brandon Final events of the PGA tour season Of course, there is plenty to go on during the fall as well But are you pouring out a tier with this being the final PGA tour event of the season? Um, it'll be nice to get a little bit of a reprieve as we enter NFL season because you and I do double-duty With NFL season I thought you're gonna say pouring out a tier because we're we just got news that was out tourists withdrew Which sad on a lot of fronts heard his back last week But I also then and this is not comparable to will see losing a chance at you know a lot of money But I had to rerun everything right before Right before I think we learned this like about I'd slacked you at 9.53 and we're recording. It's a 10 11 a.m. Right now Yeah, so I've been I've been grinding I might have to like halt during my notes because I'm about to recommend will see I liked him as a first-round leader In case the back didn't hold up But yeah, I might I might say something about will see but I think I'll do my best to monitor myself and make sure I don't do that. Yeah, so in case you did not see like Brandon said will sell a tourist has withdrawn from this event which does change things quite a bit think he was gonna be seven under to start and That's important because we have a unique format here with the tour championship. So that obviously matters a lot for betting So Brandon Explain to the good people if you can the way this format works for the tour championship before the event even starts Yeah, so we're down to the final 30 now final 29 in the FedEx Cup standings For the PGA tour season based on your standing You were assigned a particular starting score on the bottom five of the the 30. I'm just gonna say 30. It's easier We'll start it even par Next five are one under par to start all the way up through The leader who is Scotty Schaeffler starting at 10 under par and I say all the way up But it's actually Patrick Cantley is second at minus eight wills out towards was minus seven And then Zander Schaeffler is minus six. So it's incorrect to say sorry Schaeffler has a 10-shot lead on the field He has a two-shot lead on at least everyone and then I guess what a four-shot lead on Anyone other than Patrick Cantley? So that's why if you look at the odds this week and see Scotty Schaeffler now he was 250 then 230 He's probably what plus 200 now acid the withdrawal. So that's why it looks that way so just be very very mindful of You know this format We've had this format now for three years The past two winners have been that 10 under leader it's going to be kind of even easier this year again without wills allatours in the mix but not necessarily With the the net scoring Not necessarily the right week for long shots because you have golfer great golfers starting out in front of you and you have a handful of great golfers starting on front of you So to come from behind it. It's unlikely and only Roy McElroy has done that so far And you can find the starting stroke stuff at just Google it You can find it pretty much anywhere you want to see where golfers are starting again note that Zalatoris no longer in the field that does open up a bit of a gap in that regard We also do know Eastlake golf course. They've been coming here for 15 or so years for the for the finale What do we need to know about this course in terms of how it plays and stuff like that? Yeah, a great source for this is data golf course table, but You know with with that we see a lot in a lot of narrow fairways Some of them some of the more narrow fairways that we have on tour some of the most penal rough So basically accuracy does matter It's a really good course for accurate hitters, but that's not necessarily enough just to be accurate It's a good enough test overall That you need to you know that all-around skill very easy place to put which is kind of surprising to end out the season But maybe it's a gift to these guys, but especially from within five feet Data golf has this as one of the easiest courses over the past since like 2016 with shot link data. So The gimme range might be a little bit extended and that could help us target some golfers who maybe struggle from within close In terms of the average green size, it's about normal. It's about an average 10 meter So we're not getting like too quirky And that kind of leads to score ability If we're looking at the gross scores or the 72 whole scores that the winners over the past three years Even in this new format would be 18 under 19 under and 17 under so you strip everything away with the starting scores we're kind of looking at like 18 under winner, which is not just a true birdie fest, but it's definitely not You know super difficult so guys can move But whenever you have you know, for example, Scotty Schafer starting with a Say a four-shot lead on almost anyone else He doesn't have to do as much and that's really really daunting So, you know the key stats here basically gaining strokes off the tee one way or the other Whether they you're accurate or long hit your irons on the green because you need to make those birdies and then putting on Bermuda would definitely be Okay, so we do have two separate outright markets We just for this week and you kind of alluded to that where you have the net and the gross I don't understand the difference I'm just gonna say you have the person who hoists the freaking trophy thing It gets a big check versus the person who has the best 72 whole score Across the entire weekend. So we have both those what are your favorite bets for the outright markets, whichever one you prefer Yeah, so I thought Schaeffler at plus 230. He was about an even value in my model now that he's down to plus 200. That's It's fine Because I think that the the one hard part of modeling this week is Just Mentality Schafer's gonna play a little bit of a different game Some of these other guys are gonna play a little bit more aggressively to try to to climb I will say that the 72 whole format It might sound like these guys are gonna sort of only play to try to win the tour championship, but You do get OWGR points based on the 72 whole format. So it's kind of an event within itself So don't write off the 72 will scoring just because of the net scoring here But I would say Xander Schafer with the strokes is a real standout play also without the strokes But great form of Eastlake. He's been second second and fifth the past three years since this new format He won in 2017 back in 2020. He also was the gross scoring leader Would have won if not for Dustin Johnson starting it, you know, ten under par Rory McElroy as well. Jim's yeah, we can talk about that for our DFS show later, but Uh, Rory McElroy, uh, he was Plus 1,000 looks like he's plus 900 now Two-time winner at Eastlake led last week in strokes game t-degree into BMW, but did not putt well I think if you can if he putted better last week, we would see him even higher up You know in terms of the odds So those are the two Net scoring leaders that I like Xander and Rory because I'm not really look looking to bet long shots in that market You still got to surpass a lot of guys as for the 72 holes again The gross scoring leaders the past three years have been a tie last year with John Rahman Kevin Knopf But then Xander Rory, I guess then Horschel Justin Thomas before that So like it's the studs who actually do lead in 72 will scoring so even there You don't want to get careless in that market. I like Xander as well I like Patrick Cantley's kind of a value same as Scotty. Well So I'm kind of thrown off here because I'm looking at these new odds and trying to figure things out But yeah, Schaeffler. So I would go Schaeffler plus 1200 In terms of the 72 hole scoring over Xander because he's plus 800. I think that's the right play there But as if you want a little bit of a longer shot Cameron young is plus 2200 pretty good value in my model really good You know proximity hasn't really converted on the shorter putts, but it's again an easy place to putt this week And then Victor Hovland is plus 2700 So just to clarify I know I got a little scrambled because I realized that my odds on the sheet on my note sheet were wrong I think Schaeffler plus 1200 Cameron young a plus 2200 and Victor Hovland plus 2700 for the 720 scoring leader Those are the standouts to me. So you mentioned Rory and Schaeffler as being the guys you like for the with the strokes Yes, I've done all the best by the phrase anyway with the strokes They're the bet the guys you like to actually like hoist the trophy McElroy is nine to one there Versus six to one if you go in the other market, which market do you prefer Rory in between those two? Honestly, I probably go the 72 hole because He's starting at four under he did come back and win it in 2019 And he won by think that four shots. It was crazy, but he started at five under Justin Thomas just didn't like Was that the year you had the new baby narrative? So I think we need to caveat for that or was that the year after I you know, it's a real who could say sort of you know I mean Google could say we could We wouldn't be able to find out, but I don't know if top my head But yeah, I'm Rory is starting from from four under So he does have a few names in front of them I guess was it for now without will see technically. Yeah, so yeah You see I'm burns a 500 Zander six under can't lay at eight under and a chef or a 10 under But that's still a pretty solid list of names. And so I would go to 72 all scoring for Rory Okay, same thing for Zander. Are you going with the with the strokes there plus 650 since he's starting at six under? I like I honestly like both for both, but if I'm nitpicking Probably just 72 will scoring at that rate. Okay, just to play a little bit safer perfect Okay, any non-outrights you like for this we do still have outright. So any preferences for you there? Yeah Kim Young plus well, he was plus 170 for a top 10 He starts three under Tied for 11th to start the week again Just a he gets in a good position Fantasy National has him as the leader and opportunities gained over the past 50 rounds should be able to putt better from within five feet And I went through the head to heads and I didn't see a whole lot. So I don't want to get too far You know though, but I don't get too over eager here, but Scott stallings minus 142 I know it's pretty heavy there, but over sep Stratka Stratka is a bit of an outlier to make the top 30 He's the weakest golfer in the top 30, but he's starting at four under par Stallings is my starting at three under so you're are giving up a shot in playing some odds But the difference in skill gap there over four rounds is still showing value on Scott stallings there And Stratka got here because he played good golf over the stretch, but so did stallings So you're not losing much there in that regard either. Okay, so came young now plus 155 for a top 10 Not a huge move there, which is actually okay I was out of torso drawing and then stallings minus 142 over sep Stratka What are you laughing at now? Because we got I had the two different markets to cover. Yeah with the withdrawal It was you know, hopefully people got what I was going for you I mean, I don't understand what I was saying So if they understood what you were saying that says a lot about what you your clarity So I was all good to go until we got the withdrawal But I guess it's better to get the withdrawal before because I would have recommended some mozalatoris that would have changed That's true and things so I was worth it. I also will say it's a lot This is a confusing format, but it's a lot less confusing than before when you could have two people celebrate at the same time Like it's someone won this event that someone else won the FedEx Cup Which I believe happened in the final year before they switched like that this is less confusing So this is the less confusing format. It's still got us all Jumped up. Yeah, it honestly wouldn't have been that confusing if it wasn't for the withdrawal because then all the odd shifted And I was double-checking everything and you know, but I don't know net versus gross those I will never get that you cannot explain to me Please don't even try. There's no point. Anyway, that is Brandon. Good deal. I check him out on Twitter at Kedula 13 We're breaking down our DFS thoughts on the tour championship later on today on the Fandal YouTube page and on the number fire Daily fantasy podcast seed Brandon. Good luck to you this week. Hopefully your bets cash and we'll talk to you Whenever there's a PGA event again, I don't know. I guess I'll talk to you in like five minutes, but yeah, they'll talk to you soon Yes, that's good. All right. Let's let's set a winner this week. Let's do it again Check out Brennan Twitter Twitter Twitter Twitter at Kedula 13 these Senior mayor of number fire.com. Okay. Let's talk now about some NASCAR at Daytona again I'm here tomorrow. I'm gonna be talking about some college football with Ed Feng, but I'll be out on Thursday Friday Typically, I don't NASCAR in the Thursday show, but let's do it for today because I'm gonna be gone later on this week There are three outrides. I like for this week at Daytona with the NASCAR Cup series and its final event of the regular season Those are Ryan Blaney, Chris Febel and Eric Jones starting with Blaney He's 12-1 at Fandal Sportsbook and he's actually the favorite to win this race in my model I've got Blaney 8.8% to win this race versus 7.7% implied so that's a pretty good mark pretty good value there still below 10% I've got him, but still a value We know Blaney can mop up on the super speedways. He had back-to-back wins in Talladega He won this exact race last year He was pretty close winning the Daytona 500 got put in the wall by his teammate now Needs a win to make the playoffs like he couldn't get in via points, but I've got like 44% odds That a driver not currently in the playoffs wins this race So Blaney can't really afford a points race because there's a very good shot. He misses the playoffs if he does Blaney is a great pack racer We know Forrest tend to be very strong here his teammates Joey Logano Austin Syndrick are locked in so maybe they Give some more age to Blaney as well try to get him in the playoffs I know 12-1 is short for a super speedway But I've got that accounted for my model is still showing value on Ryan Blaney So 12-1 to me a very fair number for Blaney to win this week Christopher Bell is 25 to 1 at Fandall. He doesn't have the track record of Blaney in terms of finishes, but He's always running up front Bell has run seven pack races with Joe Gibbs racing He has had a top 11 average running position in six of those seven races and that means he's Not getting into trouble until late. He is at the front. He's lurking. He's competing Trying to lead laps and stuff like that. He did finish top five in one of those now What that means is he has failed to convert into a top five finish despite having a lot of good runs That's a concern because it does take a certain skill to finish and capitalize on a super speedway And Bell has not shown that yet, but I've got him at 5.6 to win this race his implied odds are 3.9 percent I think I'll be higher on bell than most this week So not as much of a rush to bet this one if you versus Blaney and Jones but I do think that bell 25 to 1 is a good value accounting for Some of the issues he has had closing things out despite having fast cars on these super speedways As far as Eric Jones goes He's 24 to 1 at Fandall. You can still get him at 35 to 1 of caesars last I checked about a half an hour ago I love that. He's 4.3 to win for me. So I'm actually showing value on Jones at 24 to 1 But his implied odds at 35 to 1 or 2.8 percent If you can get 35 to 1 Jones is my favorite outright bet of this week if you can make just one bet this week Get Eric Jones at 35 to 1. He has the third best aggregate average running position on the pack track so far this year Uh, that's behind just chase ellie and ryan blaney where the two most likely winners in my model He could have won talladega at 70 to 1 I was watching that on twitter when I was on my honeymoon in france Not I was not paying attention to the race. I was just watching on twitter promise Um, he was leading on the last lap there took the white flag in first place didn't win, but Could have won that race He has won Daytona before he was in very good equipment But again the equipment gap this year much smaller than it has been in years past So I want to be an americ jones. I think that If you can just get 24 to 1 I might not be as an as an enthusiast It's about about 0.3 percentage points of value from you there But if you can get him 35 to 1 30 to 1 something like that I am all in on eric jones once again for this week the non outright markets a lot of ton of value there because they I mean i'm not going to show uh value in anybody at Less than even money to finish top 10 in a super speed way and a lot of guys are less than even money So we need to find some long shots here. The one I do like is david raggan Uh 10 to 1 I've got his his odds to finish top 10 around 20 percent. That seems too high I would take the under on that number personally. I think the model is a little bit too high in him but The reason that's high is because we've seen raggan finish top 10 With this team at this track this very same year So i'm from rick ware racing obviously very bad equipment But he finished eighth in Daytona back in the spring and now we're getting potentially a higher chaos race because it's the final race of the regular season and It's also just three fewer drivers in the field and that does matter That does boost the odds for everyone because there are just fewer competitors in there So raggan 10 to 1 to finish top 10. I really do like that Uh, he's had a great history at Daytona. He's actually had a win here way back in the day and better equipment But I still think 10 to 1 is too long despite his equipment. I think that with this high chaos race We're going to see a lot of weird stuff happen That could benefit david raggan. I also do show some value land in castle 15 to 1 Finish top 10 not talk myself into that one yet, but I have talked myself Into david raggan 10 to 1 to finish top 10 So again, david raggan 10 to 1 finish top 10 eric jones If you can get 35 to 1 take it you can get 30 to 1 take it if you can get just 24 to 1 I still show value, but uh, a harder decision there chris rebelle 25 to 1 and ryan blaney 12 to 1 to win this race That's all we got here for today Big thank you to pitching ninja rob freedman for swinging by breaking down to save his strikeout props for today Thank you to brandon gandula for talking about the tour championship and his favorite bets for that We'll be back once again tomorrow with dr. Ed fang breaking down week is zero of college football I will talk about my northwestern wildcats the reason i'm out Later on this week to go watch them over in ireland. We'll talk about that We'll talk about more ed's model overall That'll be tomorrow to get that as it goes up Just subscribe to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast and while you're there if you like what you hear Please leave us a rating and review as well If you've got any questions for me. I am on twitter at gymsontis j i m s a n n e s you can also follow the fadwell podcast network at fadwell podcast big Thank you to everyone for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your bets for tonight If you go in on some k props and we'll talk to you once again tomorrow to talk about some college football This has been covering the spread right here on the fadwell podcast network