 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The Power Trading Hour with your host David White. Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618. Now David White. And welcome all to another excellent edition of our Trading Hour and as always it doesn't matter where you're at as long as you're here at this time. The following takes place between 2pm and 3pm. And occasionally every six months I like to tell people that I play that so that if this is watched another time that I was acting on the available information when I said it. Unlike the future to quickly change one's opinion or you'll be broke if you are a trader. You got to be able to change your mind when the market changes it 877-927-6648 also you can drop a line to me via email at path at TFNN.com that's P-A-T-H at TFNN.com and we look forward to what you have there. So I'm fairly bearish and I really like that nobody well I won't say nobody but few think the market can go lower just about everybody on one side of the fence and that's generally doesn't mean that you're going to make money but if you are right being on the short side it is generally much larger than you would think. Same thing as you're going higher if there are a lot of shorts it can generally go a lot higher until all the shorts give up. But we shall see generally around 2 o'clock we start getting a big decision. The S&Ps I think really trying to test a 4600 area on that on the cash anyway. Nasdaq there are a few more things going on but let's get to the SIT rep war news continues to be bad although they put a happy face on it last couple of days. We continue to be inverted we've gone plaid with the yield curves after the bell last night Chewie well we'll give them the and pop that up real quick C H W Y nice gap down at here. I was very interested in watching how these guys did mostly because they had such a great low volume low and move back into the trading range. What hasn't changed is a couple of things and we'll talk about micron next but the supply chain costs for dog food, pet food of all kinds cat food I guess they sell it all maybe they sell snake food I know snakes eat rats but I want to make a snake food never seen one just random ideas go through my head anyway you had a fairly good nice low out here you've gone up the top you gave it all or at least 50% of that back in a day off that bounce on the low. You never really had a lot of volume except the last round really yesterday when they ran all the shorts out and again that's why these things if you do disappoint there's not a lot of room to get in or out there's just going to be lower. They were pretty much about 15% lower for most of after hours last night 15% or 16% now so that continues on so anybody that has or has had supply chain problems maybe continuing on with those so keep a close eye on that. Other stocks of interest on the winter side Lululemon everybody's getting back to the yoga pants apparently so we'll give them a little give a winter horn here nice pop higher lots of volume in this one you only needed about two and a quarter million shares to break through the previous high of February 2nd you got that in spades. One of the things early on that I talked to a lot of well-known traders about and same thing is kind of volume and what to look for it in volume and everybody's just say well it's more or less but come to find out it's a little bit more nuanced. What you're looking for is something like 150, 175% of the volume that you want to break the high with and once you get past that what you do end up getting a lot of times is a buying climax on the gap and then you don't get any more generally you can get three or four days out of a nice bounce like this. If the volume is more like let's say what we ended today with like four and a half billion shares instead of the six billion we already have then kind of on the edge but you might get just a little bit more but generally you want to see you know 150 maybe 200% beyond that a little bit too much a little bit too soon so I always kind of thought of it in the three bears too little just right and it's way too hot. Well this is on the not on the insane side of too hot but generally that tells you you may be getting everything that you wish for all in one day. Generally when I get that kind of volume all in one day and off the bottom we really didn't have a test of a previous low on that much lighter volume he had 1.1 million shares to 1.73 million shares so you did get a low and you got back into the trading range but could you get a pullback back that was a 352-ish I think that's very possible in this one especially since you have a double gap there so I'd probably pull the rip cord if I was long that one right now and try to buy it back 352 if at all possible. Micron was another it was up 5% after hours the CEOs been out and about it was up to 86-24 but he's been talking in mostly about supply chain disruptions issues so this is really kind of rolled down to fill the gap higher that it had yesterday on a tombstone doji he's just looking now into 2023 and that didn't make a lot of people very happy we continue to wonder how the market's going to adapt to the change in US policy for tariffs on I'm gonna say half of their stuff has at least some kind of tariff on it not micron itself but the boards it goes on whether it's in video or AMD for video cards or memory that goes in a variety of other things pretty heavy on that and the question is whether or not we just hit demand or whether or not there's a bunch of supply to come out when we come back a few more things to look at a little bit of history and look forward to your phone calls at 877-927-6648 are you grinding in the market but seeing little to no return or are you a successful trader simply looking to make your job a little easier learn to take the path of least resistance with David White's powerful trading newsletter David White is an accomplished trader whose deep understanding of technology and the markets allows him to consistently find and share winning trades support and resistance define the ranges in which stocks trade by understanding these trading ranges David White is able to find the path of least resistance David White's trading newsletter the path of least resistance is delivered daily before the markets open to make every trading day an easy win visit tfnn.com today and subscribe to David White's ultimate trading newsletter for $119 a month and try all of our newsletters risk free with our 30 day money back guarantee take the path of least resistance at tfnn educating investors what's separating you from the most successful men and women on Wall Street that's right information having all the information gives us the perspective we need to place the right trades at the right time the test profile scanner is the premier market profile base scanner powered by its acclaimed task proprietary algorithms this feature rich scanner instantly filters over 2500 plus global financial markets such as stocks ETFs commodities futures and forex this powerful suite of tools leverages instant trade filtering and strategy formulation to show you emerging trades before they happen for a limited time you can save $100 off your first month by using the promo code upgrade and you still get a 30 day money back guarantee so you have nothing to risk level the playing field with the task profile scanner which you can find under the services tab at tfnn.com sign up today sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument you have to practice sure but you also need excellent instruction from experts at tfnn you'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis and it's not just dry tedious text either tfnn airs live financial content streamed live on tfnn.com and tfnn's YouTube channel with Tiger TV live every market day from 8 30 a.m. to 4 p.m. Eastern for free each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world from the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money watch online at tfnn.com or on tfnn's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be tfnn educating investors 3 7 6 1 8 other action packed episode of the power trading hour back here and look at the indexes as I said we were looking at 4600 very interesting to see that nobody wants any part of risk lower whether it's a shorting or puts or anything we had kind of a blow off top and one of the highest readings ever in the American Stock Exchange trend. The reason that's important is the AMX is basically now down to a bunch of ETFs that are all long ETFs are mostly long and you see the extremes there much easier than you do in many others and we had a pretty historic pop to the upside which suggested that just about everybody that wanted to be long was long and very few people thought that they could short the market and that's generally when you get some kind of a pull back. Anyway we're going to continue to keep an eye on it. I think on a long term scale we're headed much much lower for a variety of reasons. But a lot of policy decisions have led to where we're at today and kind of the butterfly effect you never really not anybody really thought that Archduke or I can't even say it Archduke Duke Ferdinand being shot and would lead to World War one. We've had kind of a domino effect that started a couple of years ago and I can I can pretty much draw the lines from the beginning to where we're at now. And they're all just going to be I think compounding since there's not a real desire to change our trajectory at least here in the United States and for the most part I don't think in the western democracies were we're headed toward that iceberg and no one wants to slow down. Even though they can see it they know it's there. They're just going to pretend it's not. So I continue to think we're going to have bigger problems and probably those bigger problems maybe through the first quarter of next year. And they're not just a little higher interest rates or that I think it's just a compounding of many things but it started with higher fuel prices that now feeds into everything else. And that higher fuel prices funds people like Putin who want to use their money for evil other people that dislike us are going to do the same thing. And so I'm fairly pessimistic about the market. Over the last maybe over probably into the first quarter of 2023. As we continue to see things like chewy and others have problems with supply disruption. I don't think it's going to be enough just to have a company a couple of companies doing very well. Check in on the usual suspects. Yesterday we had kind of lighter volume than we probably should have. You needed about 46 million shares in Microsoft. You ended up with about 30 million shares today. It tried to get just a tad higher. You only got about 15 million shares. So there's a lot of hang time out here on some of these bigger names. Same thing with Apple to do with to do. Yeah. A hundred million shares. Was it a hundred million shares yesterday. That's going into the 153 million share high that we had going back in January 4th. So this one had a little bit more juice on the way up. But I think it's kind of at the top of its trading range. Could it get up to 182. It could. But the rest of the market looks like it's going to have some problems with with the rest just not being able to carry on with it. Take a quick look at some of the other ones of the most traded out here. And that is Amazon to do. You got kind of the makings of a high here in Amazon. The biggest problem you really had was you really wanted to break out two days ago with some volume. You had about three million shares into three and a half million share high yesterday and 3.3 millions. You were almost there. But you're now kind of coming back in here. Any big close below 32 76 on Amazon would be kind of not good. The biggest problem I see with these companies is a lot of wrangling about changing the tax structure and the way these companies work and also going after them for antitrust. Those things are continuing to percolate higher in the courts and move on. Facebook lost a big part of a lawsuit either yesterday or today. I saw the news today and they've got a price fixing thing that could go criminal. Right now it's a civil issue. But you might turn over a lot of rocks on them lying. And especially since they did it across state lines and used a electronic means to do it. There's the old standby for the FBI. It's always wire fraud. And if you look at the definition of it just about anybody can be charged with it and probably convicted. It's one of the easiest things to go after somebody. But I would not be surprised if you find the right prosecutor outside of California or the West Coast. And these are being brought in other places in jurisdictions that are a little bit more friendly. Mark Zuckerberg could probably go out and kill somebody and they wouldn't do anything on the West Coast. The judges know where their bread their bread is buttered. But the rest of the United States not so lucky in some of these cases that are percolating through. There's a lot of guilt. And why I've always talked about Facebook or Metamucil as an evil company. I think there's a lot more that they're going to see. Talking about companies probably not operating in their best interest. Walt Disney was up a little higher yesterday catching a lot of flak today. We'll see if they can hold up. A lot of talk about them using slave or near slave child labor in Haiti in the Dominican Republic. You get involved in throwing mud and some of it's going to get back on you. That's kind of what Disney has done here. I'm not real optimistic on Disney. They're moved to streaming is problematic just like it is on Netflix. Back in having fun trading the markets but having trouble finding like-minded individuals to discuss your trading and investment ideas with become an apex predator in the trading markets and join the Tiger's Den trading room only at tfnn.com. The Tiger's Den is an exclusive trading room where successful traders from around the world come to exchange trades and ideas. 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This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim for more information just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com. As we return let me save this I was working on it during the break I need to get that apps there we go we'll get back to that and we'll check into the market already in progress right at 4600 on the S&P cash nobody thinks this market can go lower or let me put that way not nobody few people think it can go lower no one wants to pay up for any kind of puts. So very interesting generally this is where you have a big move so probably before the end of the day and that means that they're going to have to depend on whether or not they want to double down on what I think is probably very close to a very long term high in the market where we're going to be sellers for a while instead of buyers although you will continue to have sharp moves higher. Okay in the inbox here we've got a question on gold GLD well you went right into the first gap you bounced unfortunately the volume is pretty poor today in the GLD but you know that's not uncommon especially when everybody is euphoric in the market going higher as they are right now you didn't fill that gap you did it with about the same volume but just more of a consolidation right now I don't think it's the end of the world that you have light volume you could just go sideways but if you're waiting for the big move it's probably going to be I don't want to do that what I want to do this place moving average you probably want to buy the next move higher and that is above the nine-day moving average so you know you get to Friday and it's tomorrow would be what tomorrow would be 181 82 and it's over that then you may be off the races the next day 180 19 and the next day 179 53 so you're probably going to go along a little bit sideways but you break this next one my guess is that you're going to go up and fill all three of those gaps but you may just have another couple of days to wait out there but it looks a little bit better although a lot of people would like the reversal from yesterday would have liked a little bit more of a follow-through today okay when we look at market volumes out here about 7.6 7.7 billion shares on the CBOE consolidated tape if you're new to the power trading hour and you want a link to that same volume that I look each day it's split apart nine ways to sunday and one of the best volume sites out there okay what else do we have okay we looked at microsoft looked at apple we have not looked in nvidia yet um a little softness in nvidia i suspect uh on the comments from micron the whole s uh the whole smh sector um but uh is there a real signal here no you haven't broke in the uptrend line whatsoever so there's no signal yet to be had on it on the smh's um you are much closer on this one uh but uh you know you hit the gap down that had 8.3 million shares you actually the next day you had 11.7 million shares uh with about seven million shares yesterday um so you've gone back you filled that gap up yesterday so you know does it take a couple of days more for this thing to get moving um yeah maybe to the downside but i suspect you're in a bigger trading range until we start seeing people like micron start to talk about uh maybe some other issues out there eight seven seven nine two seven six six four eight uh email me at path at tfnn.com okay my email program keeps locking up here i just rebooted the machine and it kills still keeps locking up not exactly sure why we'll keep it on it um okay uh ronald wants to look at the uh dmd see if we have anything else out here um just like a lot of these uh we're kind of coming into this downtrend line um so we want to keep a cool nice eye on that let's go ahead and draw it up here for you and see okay yep it's still there you kind of have bounced above that downtrend line but you really haven't picked up a lot of volume on this on amd uh you've got a higher volume low still at a hundred dollars and eight cents and that one could still get retested uh energy is about the same on the way up and the way down so you could just be in a bigger trading range again no sign out here yet um but if you uh bust below the uh three by three or nine day moving average why the pause i was busy playing with my email uh and trying to get it unlocks so something every thing else would work because literally the my email client when it locks up literally locks up the entire machine okay they are qq okay gld question about pltr and a nice bounce off the lows and of course uh probably the best thing um that you found out was that kathy wood was out of this stock and since then it's gone up 40 percent but uh yeah you're probably on the easy part of this the last kind of ledge out here let's go back and look at this turn those off um you're basically back to this level at about 14 and a half uh that is resistance for this again no sell sign on this yet uh a little oversold probably for selling uh now back up but uh you're not really seeing a lot of cues like this probably wanted 50 at 22 to be back are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the bay area including the surrounding st petersburg tampa and clearwater markets tiger real estate llc is a firm that has extensive experience in the tampa bay area whether you're looking to sell your current property for maximum value or you're in the market for a second home or investment property tiger realty has the experience across all areas of real estate in the tampa bay area to help buyers and sellers make the most informed decisions across all price levels from the price you should be paying per square foot in certain up-and-coming areas to the type of cash flow investment properties are capable of creating tiger real estate can help you make the best decision when it comes to all areas of the market 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listen to tfnn live on your mobile device 24 hours per day go to tfnn.com and hit watch tiger tv that's tfnn.com and hit watch tiger tv as we return uh streaming continues to look questionable mostly because of the cost increases for production in hollywood fighting for actors and scripts and production facilities as we've talked about you did get kind of a bounce off of netflix but really this thing's done nothing but goes sideways and a fairly minor pop out here off the highs um you know you've got that high volume low out here at 351 you did test it on lighter volume but man you really didn't get that much more um after this thing started going sideways so i'm wondering if that isn't a fairly good sign of uh distribution or accumulation but uh generally when your lows and it just goes sideways it's accumulation at highs it's distribution but uh you know you had some decent volume yesterday not so much volume on a little bit of a pullback here but uh i am nervous question about the tlt from sandra uh to to yeah you know you as we said you got a lighter volume test of the previous low um you're trying to get back into that line uh there's a lot of discussion whether or not the fed is adding or not adding but according to what they've said they are not going to be adding and the question is this is going to be the first month uh that fund buying does not have an additional 30 to 40 billion dollars unless they've lied to us wouldn't be the first time that they've told us one thing and done another but uh you know what i you you do hear a lot of people talking about them coming out and defending the fed defending the bond overnight but uh other than a little bounce uh and anemic at that uh yesterday had 19 million shares in the tlt uh on a sideways day today trying to push a little higher on 10 and a half million shares and uh you know you had this big day out here on the 18th with 55 million shares so that's kind of set this thing uh on the test of the low but not really much of a move higher i continue to think that you're looking at 122 uh other things that i've just seen and make me start to think that the market uh not so much just the market but the economy in general uh is starting to wane is the amount of boats and airplanes for sale the in the last two weeks we've seen a absolute skyrocket uh in boats for sale across the country and this is about uh twice that we the the national average uh over the last three or four years and all the boat sales have been good maybe you could chalk up 10 percent of that to just more boats being out there to be sold more people changing hands but uh about 100 percent more boats for sale than the national average over the last few years in march and that's generally the best time to be selling a boat because not everybody has the perfect weather of southern florida or the gold coast or god's country as i call it over here in tampa but uh a bunch of them um seeing some similar things in both airplanes but not to the same extent and rvs now rvs could probably be chalked up more to uh the fuel prices maybe but a lot of this stuff people were buying over the last couple years and even last year with uh rebate checks being used for some of these stuff people are maybe looking at the other way so generally you get a little bit of move in the housing market then you get to the stuff that people really don't need which is like boats and flash cars planes other things like that but very interesting to see that trend in the last few weeks and just how many especially uh when i was talking to a boat guy a couple of days ago just how many of these boats that are kind of the introductory level boats they're not the ones that are built at any cost you know the owner probably paid cash for anyway these are hundred two hundred thousand dollar boats that people bought with maybe ten thousand dollars down probably underwater maybe they're worth 150 or 100 thousand dollars so they may be 20 or 30 thousand dollars underwater already um private yeah two expensive hobbies but i'm starting to see that weakness uh can i look at bc and sorry uh in the den if i wasn't looking at your comments as much as i had i thought everything was stuck and it was just that pesky email client that i have that when it locks up it literally locks up just about everything in the uh on the computer except charts and discord who knows why but certainly uh brunswick bc okay i guess the reason to look at brunswick is their their uh foothold in the boating industry i guess that's the reason we're asking about that um yeah you're back there you had uh a low on about the same volume you had the low before one of the other things that we didn't talk about is just how much these uh boats and uh planes and other things are affected by interest rates uh they tend to see at least at the very beginning almost double uh that of uh cars they tend to everybody knows that when interest rates start going up the first thing that you're going to start losing on our boats and cars our boats and planes uh and rvs and motorcycles and all those kind of uh additional vehicles that probably people don't need uh but would like to continue to have but they get a little worried they get a little out of cash they start thinking about it uh anyway yeah you need another retest of the 81 actually on this one you need 79 23 for the low or i'd take half that volume uh at at 80 bucks but it still looks like a downward trend in the market uh two two two okay okay we've broken 4600 on the s and p cash not a lot of acceleration or deceleration uh 45 yeah 45 99 as i said the volume wasn't all that exciting and still isn't uh yesterday the volume went incredibly light about one o'clock never really recovered the rest of the day was okay but we're continuing to see that with just about eight billion shares today and you know maybe this is just painting the tape and putting some lipstick on that pig oh boy i think probably the worst part of uh if you hadn't weren't trading in 2000 were the absolute uh fantastic ads uh that you were starting to uh see and uh one of them was that put some lipstick on that pig let's put some lipstick on this pig yeah great uh broker ads back those days anyway uh we're uh got some lipstick on the pig here for the end of the month i'll be back in a sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument you have to practice sure but you also need excellent instruction from experts at tfnn you'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis and it's not just dry tedious text either tfnn airs live financial content streamed live on tfnn.com and tfnn's youtube channel with tiger tv live every market day from 8 30 a.m to 4 p.m eastern for free each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world from the moment the market opens until the 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chapman in your inbox every day first time subscribers also get a 30 day money back guarantee if you're not satisfied let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up tfnn.com educating investors are you looking for a secured investment which pays you on a monthly basis the target first mortgage program may be the program for you the best rate on a five-year cd in the country right now according to bankrate.com is paying 1 per year or $1,000 per 100,000 invested the target first mortgage program pays 7 per year paid monthly on secured high value buildable properties in st. 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Petersburg florida your investment can be anywhere from 100,000 to 500,000 do you want to make 1000 per year on 100,000 invested or 7,000 per year on a secured tiger first mortgage the tiger first mortgage program may be just the program for you the tiger first mortgage program pays 7 per year paid monthly for more information you can call 877-518-9190 that's 877-518-9190 catch Tom O'Brien professional trader and educator founder of TFNN also a special guest on CNBC Tom will bisect and dissect the markets the Tom O'Brien show next on TFNN and as we get ready to wrap up another excellent power trading hour and turn it over to Tom O'Brien following us just a reminder if you're hearing my dulcet tones uh then it's a lot easier to join the tiger's den for a dollar a year and you can type at me and i can respond in kind and uh it's non problematic i've already had a couple people ask me if they can use it on macintoshes and the answer is yes discord has a uh a app for discord and of course you can always use uh a browser and if you want to have multiple windows up for the people that are in the den now it is what i like to do which is uh i'm talking to my control room in one uh browser and uh i'm in the app looking at the comments in the other so you've got that anyway we're off 35 points on the s&p cash let me update that just to make sure uh today at 35 uh nasix off 156 uh gold's starting to pick up a little bit we're up 20 bucks on it today a break just a little bit higher as i said earlier would mean that you're probably off to the races and the consolidation is done on it uh we'll see uh but uh see if there's anything else i wanted to get to today um question on ccj uh hard to be bearish on any kind of energy production um this did not break above the three by three displaced moving average and kind of gave it up i suspect that you're probably going to find that uh even the energy stocks are probably going to have a little of its uh luster uh worn off of it if i am correct and this is some kind of long-term selling opportunity in the market but i see a lot of things uh out there that just make me think that uh there's a lot of distribution coming from the big guys of wall street uh over the next year and it won't all happen at once and we'll have up and down but uh over the long term i'm kind of a bit bearish at least in the bay we'll be back tomorrow same bat channel same bat time remember to sell when you can out you have to