 So it about now the floor is yours. Thank you In In past years I've dealt several times in an effort to do forecasting and We try to develop a methodology Because there is a normal trend tendency among experts and others To simply assume that current trends will continue But you know that surprises happen when a trend would breaks and there is a Fundamental shift the trick of course is to identify which trends will continue and which will Stop Dramatically at some point So I'll try some of that towards the end of my initial comments But I'd like to look at the dominant trends in the Middle East in the past few years and see whether They will continue or not. So what do we have? We have in a way the post-arab spring something that if the some referred to in a different way the underlying social and political unrest economic Aggrovation that led to the outburst of the Arab Spring were defeated in the middle of the Previous century, but they did not disappear. They're still there. The unrest is still there and I assume that it will continue during the coming decade It may burst out in this or that place, but it will continue. It will remain a defining element of the Middle Eastern scene Second is the rise of the two regional superpowers Or regional power major powers Iran and Turkey was not the case decades ago. It has been the case with Iran they Beginning in 79 with Turkey beginning in the first decade of this century, but now these two States with a population of about 90 million strong economies strong armies and a desire to revive a glorious imperial past Seeking hegemony or partial hegemony in the Middle East and it's it's been of course a major defining force And I think it will It will continue Third we have the Shift away people think a way of the United States From the region which began dramatically with Obama continued in different ways under Trump and of course just had a dramatic Manifestation in In Afghanistan I think it it will continue it may it might be moderated to some extent because the Middle East is not an area that you can Just ignore even if the Asia Pacific area Becomes uppermost on your mind. You cannot Neglect the Middle East as somebody once said after 9 11 if you do not visit the Middle East the Middle East will visit you So I don't think the United States Would be able to afford a a complete Departure or exit it will have to to find a way to to live with a continuing presence Indy in the Middle East the other pole of this development is the return of Russia I think it was underplayed by Vitalino onkin earlier Today, I think their appearance in in Syria Deciding element in enabling Bashar al-Assad to remain in power, of course in partnership with Iran the games they play in in Libya and Elsewhere there they are here and of course China China until now has been interested in the Middle East More in economic and infrastructure terms. It has not sought military presence or Diplomatic might I think what we may see In later in this decade is a an assertion of Of China's growing influence Finally the the Arab Israeli or an army say Israeli Palestinian issue What has been happening is a telescopization of the Arab Israeli conflict into an Israeli Palestinian conflict it It is being Modulated I think the Abram accords what is happening among Israel 20% of Israel's Arab population The tendency to join Israeli society and politics. We now have for the first time an Israeli Arab Palestinian party in the government coalition all this means that The issue is there and it could be exacerbated there could be further escalations of of violence Primarily with with Gaza Perhaps if the Palestinian Authority collapses another form of an intifada, I absolutely cannot be Cannot be ruled out and the Arab Israeli what you used to call the Arab Israeli conflict It become hybrid say more and more Arab states want to normalize But the Palestinian issue is here to stay and the region will have to find a way of of living with this this more complex reality so Where the trends I think could be could be broken where there could be definitely a collapse of one of the Arab listen regimes There could be another round of Palestinian Israeli fighting and the Competition the conflict between Israel and Iran over the nuclear issue and over what Iran is building in Syria could lead to another serious armed Collision and that collision would not be limited to just one country a war in the north on the northern front of Israel would include Lebanon and Syria and Iran's going to be a Massive event if it if it happens so not necessarily a very optimistic Outlook, but who in the Middle East can afford to be optimistic Thank you very much It's interesting that with it to some and well after some you referred to the post-oil era Because the title of of this session is actually not just on the geopolitics, but also the economics and Of course our neighbor here Saudi Arabia has famously got its vision 230 Dubai of course has this ten times Conceptions are I mean there is I think a desire throughout the Arab world to try to think of Of an economic future which goes which is somehow separate from all the political pressures Which seem to be ever present and probably ever permanent