 Hello everybody and you're watching Mapping Fault Lines. On the 10th of March, Iran and Saudi Arabia resume their diplomatic relations after a long hiatus. It is China which arranged this deal between them, not the United States, and it has been welcomed all over the world. Today we have two special guests with us. We have Ambassador from Ambassador of India to Turkey and Uzbekistan, Mr. M.K. Bhajukumar and we have Prabir Pulkaisa, the editor-in-chief of NewsClick. Welcome to the show. Ambassador Bhajukumar, can I begin with you first? You know, one of the things the media is saying is a surprise deal, it is a deal, it's a shocker and some of the media is also using the term secret arrangement. But can you walk us through the momentum that this announcement had behind it? You see the fact of the matter is that in Middle East, in the Bazaar, nothing remains a secret for long. But in this particular case, this has been a novel exception that the Chinese were mediating and that they were, in fact, before the announcement was made in Beijing, they were five days of intensive negotiations. Even on, they got into even details apparently, you know, from what I have gathered from Middle East publications, the Saudi and Iranian thing and the Chinese, you know, stepping in to iron out any kind of, if any, hiccups came, that kind of thing. So these five days were actual negotiations took place. So this is not something that, you know, that they were arranging a photo opportunity. It's not that. It's a, it's really real time Chinese mediation. So the factors there are, you know, the suddenness of it is because including the Americans, Americans put on a brief face later to say that they have been kept informed. Of course, we all were kept informed that the Iranians and the Saudis were talking in Baghdad with Oman's mediation and so on. Everyone knew. But the Americans were very evasive about it. Did they know about the Chinese mediation? The answer is no. And the clearest indication that there has been a kind of, you can only call it deception, was that on that morning in the Wall Street Journal, there was a very exclusive report saying that the United States and Saudi Arabia were at the threshold of striking a deal. And that the Saudi demand was that Saudi should have access to enrichment technology. And the Americans are pondering over it because the Biden administration is not very sure whether this would clear in the Congress where Saudi Arabia is a toxic subject. So you know, the thing is they were really barking up the wrong tree. And that morning, you know, it was a sensational story. I read that Wall Street Journal thing then comes in the afternoon, the announcement from Beijing that this deal has been and now that deal between the United States and Saudi Arabia is actually to see that Saudi Arabia, according to Wall Street Journal, so it's fake news as it turned out that the Saudis would join the Abraham Accords. Saudis and Israelis and all these other guys there together will form a united front against Iran. In other words, this is a run up to an action against Iran. You know, they are creating a diplomatic track to gather momentum for putting pressure on Iran's nuclear program. You know, that of course I don't want to get into now. But the point is therefore I'm making is here that even as of that morning, nobody had any clue. Frankly, of course, we had no clue. And when the news broke in the afternoon, Wall Street Journal had to scramble to come up with an analysis of what happened. So you see, this is the reality, cold reality. You know, in fact, I wrote on the Twitter that, you know, the two stories of Wall Street Journal on the same day, diametrically opposite to each other. So you know, the Chinese negotiated, you know, this deal. It's not that they provided Beijing as a setting for it. The other part is both sides, obviously Saudis and the Iranians, given the depth of say rivalry and the extended period over time, where all these negative passions were playing out and they both hit each other quite a bit, burying a hatchet of, it's not a small hatchet like that, you know, it's not an easy thing. So the fact that, you know, that they trusted the Chinese is another factor. They trusted the Chinese, both sides, and that gives a completely different coloring to it. So this is what has shocked the Americans, that, you know, that nobody thought that the Chinese had such soft power in West Asia. And now, you know, they are actually towering so far, so much higher than the Americans in terms of their stature there. So you see, these are, I'm just assembling here the pieces, you know, different angles to this. Then there is a geopolitical background to it, that the security environment, the geopolitical environment, all were conducive for a reconciliation. Because you have to trace it to a process which has been underway in West Asia for the last two to three years clearly, which is this, that these countries started diversifying their foreign external relations. And they structured a thing called Look East. And moving, that is basically gravitating away from, now, this is not only in reaction to the flawed policies pursued by the United States. This is also a result of a new thinking, a new thinking where they were preparing themselves for an era of multipolarity. Because you see the other symptoms there, they are seeking membership of Shanghai Cooperation Organization, of BRICS, and the Saudis have even brought about a proximity between OPEC and Russia, you know, OPEC plus. So you see, if you look at all these things that were happening, this is the culmination of a process which was gathering momentum because its time has come in modern history. Yeah, Prabish, so what are the factors, the media is constantly saying that the US is stepping away and China stepping in. But it's not that simple, is it? There was a growing mistrust of US policies, its interventionism in West Asia. What are the recent causes which you can trace to this look to the East policy? Well, I think there are approximate causes, immediate causes, and there are larger set of causes. And I think Ambassador Bhadrakumar has talked about the larger causes as well. And I would say in that, the fact that today, China is the major trade partner for 80% of the world. Probably about 20 years back, the United States was the major trade partner of 80% of the world, probably 70% of the world and 70% of the world today China, but 70% to 80% roughly. So given that, the issue is how do you set your external policy? It's also to do with your economic policy. So if today China is a market as well as supplier of developed technologies and goods, so given that there is a stake in the Chinese market, which is not there in the US market today, for even a country like Saudi Arabia, Saudi Arabia doesn't export any oil to United States, United States is in hydrocarbon terms, self-sufficient. So there is this larger geopolitical shift. Why Saudi Arabia thinks it's interesting to join BRICS or Shanghai Cooperation? The fact that Russia, Saudi Arabia put together now are big oil producers and they have a certain common interest, which they don't share with the United States anymore, when the United States was a big importer of oil, OPEC had a different relationship with the United States. So all of this is, as I said, some of the larger shifts that have taken place. And today as you know, even in science and technology, even according to the US strategic partners, the Japan Science Institution was there. Now recently, the Australian Strategic Tracker, as it's called, have said that China is leading in much many more areas of science and technology under the US. This was pointed out by the Japanese institutions earlier. Now that is the larger framing of it, the much narrower framing of it. Let's not forget that both Iran as well as other countries in Hezbollah, for instance, in that part of the world, Israel is shown the power of what I will call asymmetric warfare. You don't have to be a big military power to be able to defend yourself, not to attack, subjugate others, but to defend yourself. Because if, for instance, Iran, when Soleimani was assassinated, you can see the reaction that Iran had and actually the US fleet left the shores of Iran to go far away because they are afraid they couldn't be hit. And their bases were hit physically in that part of the world. Also, the whole issue about what in Yemen, Saudis have been given American arms and also American, what would be called the Patriot batteries, which supposedly bring down missiles. Well, the missile that was launched on the airport, which the claim was brought down by Patriot battery, Saudis knew very well, the battery didn't hit it. In fact, in the warhead separates from the body near the airport, and the body falls down to the ground and the claim that was a Patriot hit. But the warhead had actually hit the airport. And this is not what I'm saying. It's really, people in the United States have done the analysis, showed the pictures, showed the photographs and they said, well, Patriot wasn't very successful and Saudis probably returned the Patriot batteries. So given that Yemen is bleeding Saudi Arabia, let's be clear, then they thought with the amount of weapons they had got from the West, it will be a walkover. These are really people who can't fight. And now, Houthis have not only hit them. Yes, Iran has shared technology with the Houthis, but the asymmetric war makes it possible for Aramco to be hit. And if that happens, and what happens to Saudi Arabian oil industries, so therefore the need to finish the Yemen war, reach some settlement, I think is also one of the reasons that this agreement is taking place. Let's not forget, as Ambassador Bandar Kumar said, this has been in the making for the last two years. And Soleimani's assassination, General Soleimani's assassination is supposed to be a part of that, because he was coming to Iraq and Iraq, as you know, as he has said, also with Oman, were the people who are sort of playing the backroom work to bring these people together. But as everybody who's in the know says, yes, we knew about this, but the China could play this major role that's taken everybody by surprise. Ambassador Bandar Kumar, do you think there is a greater chance of some sort of long elastic piece in Yemen because of the role China has played and will probably continue to play in the region now? Well, I'm sure about it, because, you know, after this announcement was made in Beijing, there was an interview given by the Saudi Prince, who's a foreign minister. Now, he, you know, there are many things, you know, which are to be connected, many dots, you know, one is the day before this announcement was made in Beijing, the Saudi foreign minister landed suddenly in Moscow. Okay. And I saw the television images, Lavrov was delighted. And one could suspect that, you know, and what brought the Saudi foreign minister to Moscow, it was a huge signal to the Americans. Nobody went from rehab to Washington, but he was there. And they took the Russians into confidence naturally. The Russians, in other words, put it differently. Russians are part of it, you know, the process which was going on. And the fact is that, you know, that on the diplomatic front, there is very intense coordination between Beijing and Moscow these days. Okay. On most, all major issues and most minor issues, they work very closely together already. That sort of a synchronization is there already coordination. So this is a very momentous happening. And Russians and America, Russians and Chinese were together in this, because that is also evident from the warm words of welcome that Lavrov extended to the Prince, the opening remarks which are open for cameras, you know, exceptionally warm. So it was already signalling the previous evening when I saw that previous evening, it was very clear that something was going on, you know, for the Saudi prince to land there. The visit was not announced. Suddenly he just landed there. So there is a China Russia part there. And before this, the Iranian president visited, went on a state visit to China, and it was Chinese really laid out a red carpet there. And in the welcome words of the Chinese commentary, the Chinese Communist Party, Central Committee's paper, Global Times, the commentary they said that, you know, that from a position of autonomy in the Iranian foreign policy is shifting towards linking up with Russia and China. First time that this kind of a reference came and China is always very careful not to talk in terms of blocks, you know, but here they bracketed the three countries together, you know. So you see, when the Saudi foreign ministers, which I began mentioning, you know, Saudi foreign ministers interview to the establishment daily. He said that our three countries, that is Saudi Arabia, Iran and China, are going to work on regional and international issues together. So which means, you know, that there is a certain matrix in existence. And many things have to be worked out, you know, the details naturally. But one evidence of it is the Shankani, who was there in Beijing for this announcement, Shankani was debut for us today, suddenly appeared in Abu Dhabi. And the relations between the UAE and Saudi, UAE and Iran. OK. In a particularly difficult moment today. But this should not be a contradiction. So the Iranian interlocutor came to UAE to talk to the leadership to iron out the problems there. David Ignatius in the Washington Post wrote David Forrest today that UAE is also, he used the word quoting, quoting China. OK. So you see, there is, let there be no doubt about it. That to answer your question, these things are going to be felt all around. These things are going to be felt, you know, that the, the, the processes which have begun will gather momentum and trust the Chinese, Chinese commentaries all have mentioned this, that there is going to be positive impact on a number of conflict situations in the region. You know, this one. So, like Prave said, definitely MN matters for, you see, already the American papers, today's papers and yesterday's papers were spreading the canard, you know, that Houthis will not listen to Iran. But haven't the Houthis already welcomed the announcement? That's what I'm trying to say. Now you see the point is they are terrified and now, you know, they are completely run out of ideas. And now, you know, that they are now pumping up the Houthis and putting out a feeler to the Houthis, that how would a deal, they want Houthis to be spoilers, basically. But known the Iranians, Iranians are, you know, not so very easy to handle. They have taken precautions, definitely. And for the Saudis, you know, it is a bleeding wound. And this, they cannot carry on this war. And also, with the kind of estrangement that has taken place with the United States, there isn't any kind of support in a longer, like in Trump's time from the US, the military part of it. And you may know that UAE has already pulled out from the war, you know. So it is now, you know, Saudi Arabia is holding this can of worms. And it's the only guys who can help all the Iranians in this. So it is definitely going to have a better effect. Then it is the same with the Saudis are also reciprocating. This earthquake took place in Syria. Turkey in Syria, yes. In Syria, I'm talking about the Syria part. Americans announced that, you know, that the sanctions are not going to be made. They were then forced to tweak the sanctions. But initial reaction was, you know, they were riding the high horse, that there is no question of this one. Saudis announced an air bridge. Between Saudi Arabia and Syria to send relief supplies and dozens of aircraft landing in Syria with the relief supplies. And then the Saudi foreign minister gave an interview again where he has said that Syria's problem is also our problem, reconstruction and all this kind of thing. So you see the Syrian situation is also going to feel the difference now. Because in Syria, already the Russians are working on. See, I mentioned to earlier that, you know, there were many signals in the last two to three years. Yes. These are actually these processes, you know, are very, Prage, it is like this that, you know, several tracks are running. There is a track between Turkey and Russia. Track between Turkey, Russia and Syria. There is a track between Turkey and Egypt. Normalization, you know, Turkish foreign minister now for the first time in a long while landed in Cairo, Debeferes today. Okay. So you see, that is another track there. And then this Saudi thing, the UAE has recognized Syria. I mean, has reopened the mission in Damascus and high level visits already taken place. And Assad was also in the UAE, you know, so that is already underway. Saudis are now about to do that. So you see, in none of these things, actually, if you see from the geopolitical perspectives, there is any American content. Right, that's a very important point that you make here. That this whole region is coming together slowly. Yes. Because it also realizes the futility of the war, particularly the war, which seems to be the interest of the United States, the Western powers and even the Islamic fundamentalists or ISIS, the Daesh kind of forces, which as we know, the United States is a big hand in helping them to destabilize Syria, to weaken Iraq. All of these have now shown that there is no mileage to any of this. So countries like Saudis or the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, who had supported all of this. In fact, when the Syrian uprising as they called it took place, all of these countries were behind in that. Now, they all slowly pulling out, normalizing and you're quite right to say that this has already happened partially with Syria. So similar forces are at work with Yemen as well is something that we can conjecture. Of course, we'll know about it sooner. Syria is more visible and you're quite right in calling attention to that. And it's also interesting, the United States talks about the international order and so the rules based on the rule based international order. Well, the United States is in Syria, its army is there, it's occupying places in Syria and nobody's invitation. One third of Syria, the arable land of Syria, the spot of Syria where there is water, the part of Syria where there are the oil fields. Try to see if it is value, really. Syrians claim $110 billion worth of oil has been stolen by the Americans and in military convoy is taken out of Syria. So this is when the Americans speak about Ukraine, what you had to look at is one third of Syria territory is under American occupation. Right, Praveer. I mean, that's what I wanted to ask you that one of the things we learn is that the Ukraine conflict is not the only conflict that's going on in the world. That's not the only disturbance. But you mentioned business ties. Now, for China, is there a greater need for stability in this region, in West Asia, compared to what was there three years ago before the American Western intervention on behalf of Ukraine? You know, you've opened out in this question a much bigger set of issues. I think they don't think we're going to be able to do justice to that. But is it that a weakening hegemon needs war much more in order to keep the world fighting each other so they can at least sell their arms and play in within the differences and countries which are developing economically more forward moving and so on want peace. Therefore, a developing country like China, even a country like India or Russia, which was partially deindustrialized post the 90s, that Canada, in fact, their need for peace and the US need for power for war is much more considering also that US has a military budget, which is 10 is equal to the next 10 or 11 countries military budget. The amount they have set as military aid to Ukraine is actually more than Russia's military budget. So is it that the United States has a more stake in war and its Western allies is the biggest stake on war because they are not in the productive part of the economy anymore. So war is not productive, but you produce weapons. But at the end of the day, you produce death and destruction and you replenish your armory, new weapons only because you destroyed part of human civilization and of course, your weapons. So this this kind of scenario are we looking for when we talked about the, you know, a new international quota due international order emerging, which is multipolar. I think the one part of that is also that would require peace much more. It requires war, but does a weakening hegemon world hegemon doesn't require war more than peace so that it can fiddle around, you know, set houses on fire to say, OK, we are pouring water on it. Is that the way the world is going? I think that's a question is sort of your your question is really what opens that trade of thought. As I said, we can't really do justice to it. I do it. I think we'll have Ambassador Bhadrakumar with us again to discuss the larger issue today. We have to restrict it to West Asia, Middle East, whatever we want to call it. I only want to draw your attention that in all this, Iran is a player not only in West Asia, but also in Central Asia. So is Turkey, so is Russia, so is China. They're all players in Central Asia and in the Western Europe has occupied too big of the world's imagination. If you have a map and look at the globe, you see it's a very small part of the world. So areas like in fact, Central Asia is going to open up as a new new place where tensions will take place. Maybe some clashes will take place, war will take place. Armenia, Azerbaijan already has certain clashes. So what is the role that the countries like Russia, Iran, Turkey and China will play is very important. And I don't see any possibility now, which was not there earlier of the United States playing a very important role in this area anymore. They can at best be spoilers. And I think that's what the world is slowly beginning to realize that the U.S., when it intervenes, it leads to longer term instabilities and local wars in which that they can meddle. But the Chinese move in all of this is, can I bring you into a larger trading arrangement, the Belt Road initiative and so on. And I think increasingly the question is productive use of assets against destructive use of weapons. And I think that is the question that the world has to confront when it talks about the hegemony, who's hegemony? Well, actually, if you have a collaborative economy in the region, it benefits everybody. Right. That's what China has repeatedly emphasized in the statement as well. And that's something that the BRICS have said, for instance, Shanghai Cooperation has said, but it was really the BRICS bringing together different continents that that really started a larger process. And none of this is an alliance against others. It's an alliance for, so to say. Ambassador Padukumar, do you have any closing remarks? Yeah, you know, one point we didn't dwell upon is this, that, you know, that there is a fundamental difference also between the Saudi thinking and the Iranian thinking. Iran's foreign policy ideology is the ideology which is riveted on justice and resistance, you know, that one. Now, that is a legacy of the revolution. From the alchemy of the revolution, this ideology took shape. It's a resistance to any bullying, repression, directly anti-American. So this have not done that. So this cannot do that also because, you know, from the horrible example they have made of Russia, the Americans, Saudis can go bankrupt. Their elite, you know, their assets are lying in America and they need a petrodollar for some more time, you know, for and with their, especially with their ambitious program and so on. So you see, I read the Saudi approach to this says, therefore, is one of keeping a relationship with the U.S., but creating space to negotiate more effectively with the U.S. They are not dumping the relationship in other words. As for the Iranians are concerned, they are in a supremely happy position of not having a relationship with the U.S. anyway. And the Iranians are therefore going the whole hog and look at it, you know, that they have offered to share their expertise in busting American sanctions to the Russians. And the Russians are taking and the American papers are full of it. Russians are picking up very dangerous ideas from Iran. And when they get together now and now, you know, for instance, you know, they have taken out their transactions out of the dollar zone. They are dealing in local currencies. So with the Swift, for instance, it's one of the stupid things that the Americans made because now the Russians are Swift means what? All transactions done by Russia were under monitoring. The Americans always knew that with what they traded and why there's such a big volume of trade, it suddenly appeared through Swift, etc. But now they have no clue what's happening between these countries. So, you know, they are now doing, you know, all kinds of transactions. And the same thing is happening also with China. And out of that only came this rumor, are arms sales happening with China? Dual purpose technology. So, you know, the thing is this, we should be careful not to look at it as a ganging up. Now, again, for instance, you know, Saudi Arabia is only one country, but the biggest exporter of natural gas from that region. And second only to Russia is Qatar. And now Qatar has got excellent relations with the Western world. And Qatar cannot do without the Western world because their markets all lie there, you know, in Europe and all that. LNG, they are in the LNG, they don't have pipe gas, the LNG. So, you see, we have to be mindful of this also that this is not an anti-American thing, except of course Iran, it is an anti-American thing. And Iran will go the whole hog now to exploit this situation and to create for themselves, you know, in our space to throw off the American bullying, you know. But the Saudis and others will treat softly, carefully. Then Saudi Arabia, there is also the added problem that they are going to have a very tricky succession. And the Americans have made it very clear that they don't like this prince. And now the prince has consolidated himself and he is determined to succeed as the next monarch. And he is so young that he is, he may be for half a century the king of Saudi Arabia. So, you see, so that is also something that the Saudis are waiting for. And then most important thing is from the Saudi point of view, the last word is to be said only after the 2024 election results come out in the US. Who knows what will happen? Because the American political elites are all in the Saudi pocket. You know, so you see, if for some reason, you know, it's too early to say why is Biden dithering about announcement? Because even within the Democratic Party, there is a certain kind of thinking that he may not be, it may not be a bright idea to feel this old man as their candidate. They must have, they must look to the future and have a better candidate. So anything can happen. The Saudis are always, therefore, acting with an eye on the 2024 election. Again, when it comes to Iran, it has no inhibitions of the sky. The only thing I'd like to add is one sentence. If you remember what Kissinger said, that it is dangerous to be an enemy of the United States. The only thing more dangerous is to be its friend. So Saudi was a friend of the United States. And I think that is what is now making them much more shaky. So anyway, on a lighter vein, Kissinger, I think they'd make it on a lighter vein, hopefully. Right, Rabid. Thank you, Pastor Bhadrakumar, for joining us. Pleasure. Thank you. And that's all we have for you today. Thank you very much for watching Mapping Fault Lines. And you can wait for our next episode and follow us on our social media channels. Thanks a lot for watching.