 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network Brian Harman running away with the open championship this past weekend at Royal Liverpool He is good for him not in action this weekend at the 3m open They're a TPC Twin Cities So actually it's his loss doesn't get to go to the best state in the entire country But Tony Finau does Sung Jam does Hideki Matsuyama does we're gonna break down this week's 3m open by talking to Brandon Gondola getting his read on this week's field and getting you ready to log some PGA bets over at Fandall sports book This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network. My name is Jim Sonnis I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research joined here as mentioned by Brandon Gondola managing editor of Fandall research or do you want me to say number five? I actually don't know I didn't ask you beforehand what you preferred for your title. Anyway, Brandon is here find him on Twitter at Gondola 13 How you doing today? I'm good Yeah, coming off of last week you mentioned Brian Harmon off the top. I'm sure that you enjoyed not watching any golf really because that's that's you know That's what you prefer I did watch some but I was at a wedding. So, yeah, I'm sure the Married the happily married couple will love to hear that when they listen to this show Yes, I'm in a golf contest with the with the groom So did okay. Yeah Yeah, one of the groomsmen is also in the we do like a it's a three or a two-and-done You will you pick three golfers per week, but you can you have two uses per? I'm up to 11th. I need the top eight cash. So I'm I'm in a pressure situation. I think he actually does understand in the situation Yeah, well then, you know, I tried I tried to gotcha, but I Couldn't I couldn't it's worth a shot Yeah, but uh, boy, I had a I played in a golf scramble on Sunday So I was able to avoid everything nobody mentioned anything about the open. I understand why No one was really tracking it But yeah, I got home unspoiled got the DVR all set up and I just found myself fast-forwarding through most of it And we like Brian Harmon we talked about him kind of a lot, but not the most Not the most exciting major, but now we're on to TPC twin cities and then the FedEx Cup which Everybody loves the FedEx Cup Honestly, I feel like it's kind of disrespectful to the open championship to have the 3m open right after it because the biggest tournament On the entire tour up in the Twin Cities in Blaine, you know, it's uh, that's a tough task A tough event to proceed. So everyone everyone was just last week You know, it's the open Royal Overpool But nobody could stop talking about the 3m open at TPC Twin Cities. That's why JT shot 84 or whatever it was He was like, oh man looking ahead. Yeah. Yeah gear it up You know, he's 75th in the FedEx Cup standings got to get ready for TPC twin cities and you know I don't think we'll be talking with Justin Thomas later on as far as like betting recommendations But he is in the field for this week. We'll break down this field outline We're brand is seeing value and much more over at FanDuel Sports Book of First a reminder to make sure you're subscribed To covering the spread wherever you get your podcasts our preview of Wednesday's match between the u.s And netherlands is now posted talk to dr. Ed Feng yesterday getting his read on the u.s His first game against vietnam talking about that netherlands match and much more initial takeaways from the women's world cup Find that on the covering the spread podcast feed and the fandal youtube page and over on fan dual tv plus We've got some exciting news over at number fire beginning now You can find all the number fire content from the analysts, you know Like brandon over at a new home called fan dual research fandal research Is on the fan dual domain meaning you can now do your own research on the same site where you play spets and Submit daily fantasy lineups and don't worry all the number fire tools are still in place over at number fire dot com So your daily process can remain the same for now projections may or may not have it done this morning But they'll be back up soon. I promise that was not part of all this They'll be back promise as thank you for your years of loyalty We'll be running free rolls over on fandal research now to the end of the nfl season Check out this week's free play for the women's world cup go to the welcome to fandal research article over on fandal research Again, welcome to fandal research article on fandal research get that At fandal dot com slash research and wash while you're there be sure to check out all the great content available I'll be having my f1 sims over there truck series sims Externity series sims all over on a fandal research brand its golf stuff will be there as well So basically everything you like from number fire the content stuff is now over at fandal dot com slash research to go Check that out peruse the very pretty site that all the engineers did a fantastic job on and let us know what you think Let's dive in now to this week's three m open and break down tpc twin cities hosted this week's event It's a relatively new course in the pga tour brand and but we have a couple years of data at this point So what has stood out to you in the first few renditions of the three m open at tpc twin cities Yeah, it's in one of these courses where if you look at the past winners you might think a certain thing so past winners tony finnell camera champ michael tomsen and matthew wolf Three of those guys come to mind as just big hitters off the t and then there's michael tomsen who just uh Lead in strokes game putting i think he was top five in iron play so a strokes game approach as well uh the week that he won yeah, he was fourth Not particularly good off the t or around the green but You know if you're fourth in approach play in first and putting you're probably going to put yourself in a good good situation most weeks but It's not necessarily just a course where distance matters and Honestly, if you look at you know various tools around the internet Run your own numbers. You'll kind of see some importance on driving accuracy as well But I don't really want to go that route. Um this week. We need some scoring The the winning scores have been we've had a 15 a 17 and 19 and a 21 So we're either gonna get a 23 or 21, right? I mean what else is there to shoot here to win but You know so right in that like 18 under range you're gonna have to score um But yeah to to stick with like the off the t stuff I You know longer hitters of one here accuracy can help out So i'm looking at strokes game approach or sorry stroking it off the t In addition to strokes game approach looking for ball strikers. I think that's the best route to go This week and even that that's even with the greens being a bit large They're they average about 6500 square feet. It's about 500 more square feet per green Then the tour average, but you know That the larger the green, you know, you really can't be affording to miss the green and then rely on getting up and down So now we're looking for like around the green play Uh necessarily this week you got to score on the par five so that distance is going to help out stroking it off the t Correlates more with distance than than just accuracy. Anyway, so That's one thing to keep in mind, but you know, you got to score when you can This is not like a 30 under winner 25 under winner Generally, we're looking for again like in that 18 under range. So You need to strike the ball well got to make your putts But yeah, overall I think the ball strikers are going to win out at this course long term and that's interesting too because typically When you're talking about ball strikers, you're talking about smaller greens because it's hard to like Stick it on the pins and make it work like that, but the larger greens It's interesting the dynamic between that. Do you have any theories as to why that's the case? Why ball striking wins out so well at this specific course? So you have to in order to make birdies you have to hit greens in regulation Or greens in under regulation or hole out, which you know, if you have 72 holes What you really want to do is Put yourself in birdie position and that's gaining strokes You know with your either off the tee, but specifically With your approach play And that's basically, you know, the green size is what it is, but It comes down to giving yourself those looks and then making those looks as with any course Golfers you finish well here do putt well, so I don't want to make it sound like You know, if you just hit the greens in regulation, you're going to win like the leader and greens in regulation is going to win It's going to be like the guy who has You know top 15 greens in regulation numbers and putts the best out of those um, it's one of those courses so Does add for some volatility the lack of soup trick You know, if you if you back off if you follow go if you know a lot of these names at the top But not a whole lot of like true unblemished superstars in the field So I think volatility is going to be a bit of the name of the game So obviously the win odds starting at 14 to 1 My simulation model doesn't have anyone above like five and a half percent. So Just one of those weeks. Um, but yeah, I think that's that's really what we're seeing with the the larger greens and they're They're not massive. They're just a little bit larger than average. So yeah But there is a strong correlation between green size and the importance of of stroke skiing approach Week in week out Well, you reference the odds let's take a look at those right now over at fan dual sports book Where you see sung jm and cameron young as eco favorites They're both 14 to 1 hedecki matzuyama and tony fina the defending champ both 16 to 1 then it falls off With ameliora grillo and the aforementioned jesson thomas plus substraka all at 25 to 1 So let's start things off here with those four favorites brandon sung jm cameron young tony finaw hedecki matzuyama Any value for you in those four favorites right now? No There's I finaw fairly close. Um, but what we're looking at is There's not a clear favorite and you're not getting enough necessarily like leverage at least according to what what my model says I finaw at 17 to 1 so I don't hate that You know, that's That's something that we talk about often. That's within reason for me to want to bet um, my model is hedecki matzuyama 19 to 1 instead of 16 to 1 but Again going back to like the just the theory here. There's These are like these are household names to like golf fans, but not like you know Nationwide basically so I just wanted it's like a it's a strange It's a strange week where The field's not completely wide open, but at the top. I'm just seeing some some names that are a little bit Overvalued, but we did see some movement among these These four and that's also something to note here sung jm was 18 to 1 on monday. He's now 14 on tuesday hedecki matzuyama 18 to 16, but young and finaw lengthened from 12 to 14 and 16 respectively so If that means anything to you You know just want to kind of shout that out there, but if yeah, if I had to get to anyone It'd be tony finaw among the top four He's very close to showing value and Finaw has been a kind of a nuisance uh for me in my model where You know, I look at the past 52 weeks I scale things for recency for field strength Finaw toward like the the tail end of that past calendar year has a lot of good finishes He won the mexico open in what april by three shots like He's not that far off. He just hasn't done a ton right now So my model usually likes him, but I did scale things back a little bit in terms of how much I'm looking at recency kind of downplaying stuff. That's a little bit longer In that sample, but if I did not do that, I'm sure my model would have like tony finaw So he's the name that i'm really eyeing among those four, but nobody really stands out as a screaming value The other ripple effect of not showing value on the favorites is that there is a lot of inequity for others on the board So when you look at other outrides available at fandals sportsbook brandon, anybody popping to you as being a value you'd want to take He has more in the mid-range Aaron rye 45 to 1 Is a name that i've been In on a good bit He has fifth in the field in stroke skiing at t-degree and over the past 50 rounds according to data golf and their numbers adjust For field strength the issue for rye is the the putter It's never What you quite want it to be and from within 15 feet on the pg toward this season He's a 25th percentile putter Which is basically You know you can you have some control over the putts within 15 feet after that gets a little bit out of your control A little bit more luck That's why I like to look at that stat based on the research i've done hasn't played the course, but Again, not a whole lot of course knowledge to go around Although another reason why i'm into tony finals that he's just been so good Not just the win, but he's been great here. So Um, but yeah, I don't think that matters too much just based on the fact that it's still a new course But erin rye at 45 Someone that I like and then rye and fox at 50 to 1 as well Kind of fits the mold Of the the recent winners here really long off the tee Sort of a good all-around player, but not necessarily Someone with a profile that jumps off the page just should should be able to get himself in contention He is 33rd or better and all and all four strokes gain stats over the past 50 rounds. He's 19th in approach top 20 in distance Again, just kind of if you if you pull up the wikipedia page and see rye and fox in addition to You know matthew wolf tony finnell camera champion, but okay, that that makes sense. So rye fox and again, you know just to clarify I like finnell even at 16 Because my my model doesn't factor in course history So I'd get there with finnell, but keep it with with rye and fox in the mid-range this week Again error rye at 45 to 1 fox at 50 to 1 I'm going to ask you about this guy now because I know he'll come up later on too But so I think gala Is a guy who grades that really well if you pull the past six months of data golf, which is what I do Problems as you pull up the most recent form his irons have gone in the pooper real fast. So Figala if you're looking at just data golf's numbers would probably appear as a value 50 to 1 the irons Worry me. It's only a an eight round sample because there are two missed cuts in there So it's a small sample. I think you're you say typically around 12 or so is where Numbers like that stabilize. So any interest for you and figala or is the recent form Worries him enough to scare you away So he's another one Who's been a bit of a nuisance for me with when it comes to modeling just because there's been a bit of a drop off It's been really the precipitous the past Three events for him in terms of the iron play but You know, he had a lot of close calls and then kind of tapered off a bit And so you saw his win odds go Way too short because he was playing well and putting well Then the putter caught off a bit the irons came back to earth a bit Uh, and he was still too short and then he got into that point where he was long enough where the long term data said he's a value Now he's about fair. Um, I almost recommended him as well. Um, but the fact that we don't have As much confidence again, like you pointed out two events, uh, two straight missed cuts is not enough to to sort of back off of someone But it's it's sort of a longer term thing where he's a fair value. He's no longer a standout, but he's also not Where he used to be is just totally overvalued. So it's a really appealing name I kind of had a feeling as soon as you said something, uh, that's who you're going to talk about but You know, if you if you really go event by event The off the tee like the driver kind of fell off now. It's the irons. It just doesn't seem like it's there, but you know He could win this week. It's not it wouldn't be it wouldn't shock anyone But I don't see value, but I also don't see him as a bad bet Okay, so the two the brandon does like erin rye 45 to one and rye and fox at 51 Let's talk about the non-outright sound brand anything you see there that you like right now at vandal sportsbook You know stick with rye, uh top englishman plus 125 Not a whole lot of tough competition for him. He's up against callum taren, uh, matt wallis harry hall And ben taylor. So definitely a plus in that department. Nobody else in the in the group Is better than 60th in stroking teeter green over the past 50 rounds rye as fifth Love that advantage modeled that one out saw some value. So um, if you don't want to get to rye as an outright Or if you just want to you know, take this one as well I think that makes sense and then uh three names for top 20s jumped out to me Uh, steven yeager. He's plus 230 strong tea to green game seventh in the field there Gains off the tea pots well enough to finish top 20 in a field like this Uh, and then two names that I think are back to back here. So you don't have to scroll once you find the first one adam spensen plus 4 20 I have a plus 385. He's a great putter With a solid tea to green game and then sam stevens top 20 plus 4 30 I have him at plus 395 bad putter Uh, so not not the same as fence and not the same case here really bad putter Uh, but 18th and ball striking in the field And so he should be able to pick up those birdie chances get some equal chances. Um See a stevens fence in in yeager top 20s or or some ways that i'm Trying to get access to this field. That's not just outright. Got some bad news. Uh, I got some guys who shortened Uh, sam stevens now plus 380. Is that too far for you? for top 20 So I had him plus 395 Okay, so no value of sam stevens at faddle, but you could shop around as always try to find that. Um, So probably looking plus i'm gonna rub too because I just refreshed this stuff Yeah, I they knew like they found they found your rundown. Um, and they knew so if you get stevens like for 10 or so I think that's probably the The break even point, you know, where you show enough value to to bite on him Vincent is still uh, plus 420s. That one's good to go. Um, Yeager did short into 210. Is that still okay by you? um I'd price I'd price I'll get there but not go a full unit. Okay, so Shop around on yeager and stevens if you can get yeager You said 230 he was before correct He was 230. Yeah. Yeah, so if you can find a 230 or so on yeager somewhere out there That'd be a good one Stevens plus 410 or so brand has been 395 So shop around on that one But then stensen is the one at vandal's sports book Plus 420 as potentially one you could turn to there on top of erin rise being the top englishman. So That's always the fun dynamic is it's good when your model is in line with where the money is coming Because it means that other smart people putting money in the market agree with you It also means those numbers shorten and that can be very annoying But uh brand and I feel like it's gotta be good to you know get the confirmation people are on your side Other people agree with your model and uh, even in a weird event Still hopefully identifying some good values this week Yeah, it's a good lesson to um, just just you know Be be present look, you know No, no kind of what you're looking for Um, see if things move maybe and sometimes they move in your favor. Um, so if you wanted to bet fee now And it's out to lengthened. I mean, I wasn't going to consider him where he was But now I'm considering him. So, you know Goes both ways Yeah, better when you can if you're able to uh be price sensitive if stuff moves when it's no longer in value be okay backing off and uh, you know Take that into account when trying to fill out your bet slip That is all that we have here for today to preview the three m open once again though Do you want to remind you we do have our preview up of the usa versus netherlands for the fifa women's world cup Talking to dr. Ed fang about that also in other takeaways From the women's world cup thus far talked to Ed last night That is up on the covering the spread podcast feed the fandall youtube page and over on fandall tv Plus you can find brandy gendula on twitter at kuduo 13 Check out all of his work over at fandall research brand and thank you as always and I'll talk to you once again Here in a couple of minutes for the heat check fantasy podcast Yeah, best of luck to everyone this week. Hope it's a good tournament Alrighty again fine brain on twitter at kuduo 13. I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s I want to thank you all for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your bets across tuesday We'll talk to you once again tomorrow. This has been covering the spread right here on the fan duel podcast network