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You are free to be what you are, and you allow others to be what they are. And again, that's a beautiful thing, guys. All right, so the market gone off to a rough start today. We're kind of crawling back in the Dow, in the SMP, the NDX. Today, obviously the big talk around the banks, there's a lot of interesting things going on to do just a quick recap of what happened with SVB, and if there's maybe some other kind of toxic things within bank compositions. We'll talk about the potential for steel to be pretty good in the future here, and just some minor adjustments going on at large companies. So, to begin, we can look at Walmart here has laid off quite a few of their employees. Walmart's shrinking their e-commerce facilities across the country as a big box giant and other retailers brace for a tougher year ahead. This is kind of seeing what the Fed has wanted a little bit, right, like lowering employment. Now, employment numbers are still pretty strong, but you can see companies starting to hurt. Even companies of this kind of size are really reducing down. It seems like when we go a little bit later, when we look at some of the banks and kind of their acquisitions throughout 2020, it seems like across the board, everyone kind of used this, I suppose, extra money that they got and really bloated themselves up quite a bit. I think that's the case for a lot of employment numbers, and we'll certainly see it the case as the case and things like mortgage-backed securities, which we'll get to later. So, Walmart's e-commerce rival, Amazon, announced 9,000 job cuts on Monday following 18,000 layoffs in January. Amazon has also closed, canceled, and delayed the opening of new warehouses as some online sales shifted back to stores. Let's see here. Yeah, so I mean, not a lot of movement here whatsoever. Let's do it on weekly. Well, let's do it this way. Let's see. So, I mean, nothing too extreme for it. I think this cutting down of employment is gonna be pretty good for the company. When you get to hard times, it's just trimming the, you know, you're talking about people here, you know, you don't say like this way particularly, but you're gonna trim down on some of the expenses essentially, right? Especially when things get a little tougher. The company confirmed, this is Walmart now, the company confirmed to Reuters that is eliminating hundreds of jobs at five fulfillment centers. Told Reuters is reducing its workforce because of reduction or elimination in evening and weekend shifts. So it's pretty, you know, it's a big move for them. Walmart anticipates slower sales growth and lower profits in the coming fiscal year. The company said last month that it expects same store sales for its US business to grow between 2% and 2.5%. That's excluding fuel. That compares to 6.6% growth in the previous fiscal year. The company expects adjusted earnings per share to range from 5.90 to 6.05, again, excluding fuel for the fiscal year. And that's lower than the adjusted earnings per share of 6.29 for the past fiscal year. Online sales have continued to grow, though at a slower pace than during the peak of the pandemic. E-commerce sales for Walmart's US business rose 12% in the most recent fiscal year, which ended January 31st. And that compares to 11% growth in fiscal year 2022 and 79% in 2021. Another kind of like, you know, small news like this, Apple is getting into the movie business. Let's see where we go in here. So this also led to a lot of cinema stocks jumping quite a bit. Apple usually releases films directly to different streaming platforms. So it seems like they might be going for like a big box office hit now, which is, you know, I'm sure there's probably, I would say less fees running it like that. Also just expanding its market share into different kind, well, into different markets essentially, right? It's a pretty good idea. Cinema stocks also jumped Thursday after a report. I said, Apple's plans to spend one billion on this. I feel bad kind of for the AMC apes, as they call themselves. They, you know, this guy I know, he works at one of the restaurants I go to. He got in AMC at, I don't even know, like 20 bucks or something like that. And the thing has just continued to lose value. Again, with these kind of like meme stocks, I mean, we all know this, but there's, you know, not a lot of real value in them holding them long-term. I'm sure they can be vehicles for crazy gains if you time it correctly. But I mean, it doesn't even seem like we had anything, you know, let's see here. I mean, how big of a move really is that? I mean, this is just a bad, obviously toxic stock to hold. I think these guys are really, regardless, regardless, these companies kind of jumped a little bit on that. Again, Amazon made a similar commitment last November, promising to make between 12 and 15 movies for the movie theaters each year. Bloomberg's report indicated that Martin Scorsese's crime thriller, and a bunch of other ones from really Scott as well, are on the short list for longer theatrical runs. Anyways, I think what we're seeing is kind of like a big rebound again into cinema. It was weird, I mean, I can speak a lot again for my age group. Going to movies was kind of not really something you did. We loved being able to stay in, but I think with the pandemic, we realized how, you know, you don't know what you have until it's gone, I suppose, right? So, let me second here. So I think we're gonna see a lot of rebound in this, but regarding, you know, the cinema stocks themselves, probably nothing big on that. When we get back, we'll talk a little bit about Hindenburg. They released a pretty scathing report on Block and its CEO, Jack. A lot of the report itself, I read it all yesterday, there are some things in it that are valid. I think a lot of other things kind of make it look a little bit like a hit piece. I'm not saying that's what it was, but there are qualities to it. So we'll kind of parse through the positives and the negatives of that report and kind of see what happens with that. And folks, stay tuned, because we'll be right back. Currencies, commodities, and bond markets are as important as ever right now with how they're driving the volatility in equity markets across the globe, which is why it's a great time to try out Teddy Kegstad's Tiger Forex report. Teddy Kegstad breaks down the Forex markets every Monday using his 30 plus years of experience as a trading veteran of futures, forex, stocks, and options. Teddy releases his weekly Tiger Forex report every Monday morning with coverage of all the major currency pairs, including the dollar index, the euro dollar, pound dollar, dollar Swiss, dollar yen, as well as many more. And he also has weekly coverage of the crude oil market and the 30 year T-bonds as they both influence forex markets tremendously. When you sign up for the Tiger Forex report, you also gain instant access to Teddy's 60 minute webinar archive. He just hosted forex strategies and fundamentals. What is behind the Tiger Forex report? For all the details and to start your 30 day Tiger Forex report subscription today, visit the front page of TFN.com. TFNN Educating Investors. Are you looking for a way to consistently add winning trades to your portfolio? Tom O'Brien is here to help. Tom O'Brien has been successfully trading markets for over 30 years. 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And this is, you know, obviously not great, but look at it in a way of kind of like a restructuring, right? This is a whole new kind of line for them. And seriously, it still is kind of like a burgeoning technology. I find it a little bit ironic as well that this is going on now. Ford tried very, very hard to make kind of the switch to EVs difficult in the past few years. But Ford is spending a lot of money on EVs. Obviously Tesla has ignited that price war in China, along with Volkswagen. The announcement came as part of a plan today to explain to investors why Ford is changing its financial reporting structure. The gas and hybrid division is now called Ford Blue. Whole new division with it. And the commercial division is Ford Pro. Ford reiterates a 10% margin target for company with the adjusted EBIT, confirm that among the new business segments, Ford Blue and Ford Pro, are both solidly profitable and well-precision for growth. Repeat its 8% EBIT margin objective by late 2026. And yeah, so I mean, this again, I think it's important to take a little bit of patience with completely opening a whole new line of products. Again, I think these cars look good. I still stand by kind of my general like social analysis, I suppose on it, where I think they're good looking cars and they address a demographic that would probably buy EVs but aren't too keen on Teslas with their looks or whatnot. Interesting, this is more with Toyota, but they just come out with their new Prius. I'll do a quick one. Let's see if I can find it here. And honestly, it does not look bad. Let me see. I mean, hey, listen, they're really coming into the game right now. The EVs are getting there, guys. Obviously, these Prius have been around forever, still like a low horsepower, but you can see now the evolving market for people who want EVs. I mean, this is like a really big leap from their kind of traditional car with not a lot of aesthetic to it whatsoever. Anyways, all right, so the Hindenburg thing. Hindenburg obviously got a lot of exposure with the Adani Group paper that they released. Yesterday, they released pretty scathing reports on Block, which is Jack Dorsey's company, Squarespace, Cash App, and what I said before the break, let me see if I can pull it up. What I said before the break was that I think that some of it, while there was a lot of legitimate concerns in it, and I think those absolutely need to be looked at, and we will, there were some parts in it, especially in the beginning of the report, that kind of attacked it on a moral basis, right? And that's an interesting, even going through school doing financial analysis, we never focus that much on like what is the, I mean, of course, if the company is doing horrible things, you just stay away from it, but one of the things they focused on was that Cash App, which was a major driver of revenue, was featured a lot in rap videos, and specifically a type of music called Drill. This music is generally gang related, and a lot of these songs spoke about doing basically illicit activities through Cash App. I took like a little time and just to look through kind of what they shared, they made a whole compilation, Hindenburg did on YouTube, and honestly, it's kind of ridiculous. And I mean that in the sense that like, there are songs that are just called the Cash App, and it's just people essentially listing the crimes that they've committed, and what they were hitting on regarding that was kind of, it wasn't that Cash App or Block didn't even refer, they didn't even recognize it, but that Jack Dorsey actually lauded these guys for putting it into their show, excuse me, into their music video, and said this shows to investors that this is a very dominant app, just for Cash in general, so it's very popular among young people. Furthermore, Hindenburg reached out to a guy who directed one of the videos, and he said that Block actually paid them $1,000 for doing this. Not for making the video itself, but just, or the contents of the video, but just mentioning it in a song, so that's kind of wild. Furthermore with that, let's see, there's a big issue that they might have misrepresented user data, and that seems to be a problem with a lot of stuff on the internet. There's not really a limit on how many accounts, just generally that's not kind of traditional practice in like website building, is limiting how many accounts can exist for one person, right? And if you're not aware of that, what you can end up doing essentially is like inflating how many users you actually have, and especially if you're, as Hindenburg, was kind of accusing Block of doing, of suggesting that every number is more or less a unique user, which wasn't the case. Turns out there was multiple accounts per one person. It was also discovered that if an account was banned due to something like it was associated with a crime, that account would be banned, but the user connected to it would not be banned. So they were able to open up new accounts instantly, which is, again, kind of a strange practice for Block. I also think the problem is like, hey, look at how much we're growing, when in reality these aren't really fully unique users, is kind of an issue. One thing that's interesting that Cash App is doing is a buy now pay later. This is actually becoming really, really popular among the younger generations. I mean, I think even, I think it was Domino's or Papa John's that was doing a buy now pay later for pizzas. You could take a loan out on the pizza. Which in, you know, I used, when I was like probably 19, I worked in a pawn shop, right? And this is the kind of thing you just know, you pay us, you'll be fine, a small interest. If you don't pay, you're gonna get charged really hard. I mean, I think legally, we were limited to something like 25%, but this is insane. And that's just for pawn shops. It's a little bit different for other things. But you're getting to a point where, like, in the case of the pizza, like, you're buying this and some people aren't paying and they're racking up huge amounts. Now, what are really like the legal implications? I'm not really sure regarding that, but for something like AfterPay, which is the service's name, it tends to be, it looks a little bit predatory. So they don't charge interest and I don't think they're really allowed to. I might be wrong on that, but I don't think they're allowed to and this is like a loophole kind of thing. But they do have equivalents of late fees, essentially, right? And this can add up to like APR equivalents of something like 289%. And there are definitely more ramifications for not paying this than there would be for something simple, you know, I don't know, like a pizza or something like that. When we get back, we'll keep going a little bit more into it. We'll look at a little comment from them, so we'll be right back. If you wanna take advantage of this sector, now is the time to subscribe to my Gold Report. The Gold Report is a comprehensive look at the metal sector as well as the markets that move gold, which is the currency and bond markets. New subscribers get a 30-day money back guarantee so you have nothing to lose. Every Monday morning, I publish the Gold Report with coverage of gold, silver, bonds, the XAU, HUI, GDX, as well as more than 30 different mining equities. To see for yourself the types of profitable trades that are recommended within the Gold Report, sign up now by visiting tfnn.com. Don't miss out on the next great gold trade. Sign up today. Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument. You have to practice, sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts. At TFNN, you'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis, and it's not just dry, tedious text either. TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on tfnn.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV, live every market day from 8.30 a.m. to 4.00 p.m. Eastern. 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In the Tiger's Den, you can look over the shoulders of Tom O'Brien and the other TFNN hosts while they analyze charts during their live Tiger TV programs and join an interactive trading community with hundreds of members exchanging ideas to interact with other Tigers and Tigresses as they share trading ideas, news analysis and discuss the market action all trading day, even at night and on the weekends. The Tiger's Den at Discord is accessible on mobile or tablets as well. So it's always at your reach. To sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders, just visit the front page of TFNN.com. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. Okay, so yeah, going back to the by now pay later. Block acquired this company Afterpay, which is basically the technical structure they're using to do this. A company called Fitch Ratings reported that the delinquencies through March 2022 had more than doubled to 4.1% from 1.7% in June of 2021. Now, this is for January of last year, this is for last year, but you can see like, this is an increase. I, this is kind of what I'm saying, like how do you even like begin to enforce this? Like what is, I don't use this at all a by now pay later. That's just not a great idea for me. But I'm not sure what kind of collateral they have whatsoever. And I mean that for block obviously, if people just decide to say like, no. And again, I'm not, this doesn't affect your credit at all. That's the whole thing that block kind of goes with, which is like, listen, we're not a bank. We're not dealing with credit scores. Like just take this and go. And there are a lot of these smaller companies that were opening up, you know, kind of a year after quarantine. I haven't heard much from them at all. So yeah, I think this is kind of bad news for them in that capacity. And I think, you know, if wages actually do decrease at some point in the future, like the Fed wants, and then credit lines also shore up, which is, you know, something that Powell brought up. I think like by now pay later is will be huge. But what is the delinquency rate on that going to be when more and more people are using it when they're in a tighter, tighter financial situation? Another thing they have is 31%. This is for cash app in particular, but a 31% of their revenue comes from instant deposits. This is not, and what that is, is like if someone sends you money, right? If you want to take it out of your account and put it into your bank account, there's usually a wait time, something like three days, or you could pay a small fee and get it immediately. That's 31% of their revenue, but this isn't even like competitive for them. What I mean by that is that other companies that do the same thing charge less. Cash app is actually like at the top of it, along with Venmo and PayPal. Apple pay is only a 1.5% fee. Blocking cash app is 1.75%. Bank of America is 0%. Obviously along with Bank of America's Zell, which they acquired is 0%, which is just a phenomenal. I use Zell all the time. Chase one, I mean, you get the idea, right? So it's just not even competitive in there. I think there's some exceptions where you'll get more of a floating fee, but whenever I pull out, I'm getting charged something like that. So yeah, I mean, they got drill them here. What it says here is on a fundamental basis, even before factoring in the findings, there's downside of 65% to 75%. Block reported 1% year over year revenue decline and gap loss of 540 million in 2022. Other weird CEOs do this, so it's not uncommon, but Dorsey really cashed out at the top of this. All of their guides did. I don't think that's them necessarily saying, hey, this company's going down. I think that's what, again, one of the kind of the weird misrepresentations, but one of the weird things that Hindenburg kind of threw into this, I mean, obviously, when everything was at its height, guys were cashing out of it because it's how much harder does this go? Let's see. So yeah, I mean, that's what's going on with Square. I would definitely recommend you guys go, Hindenburg has on their Twitter and just kind of read through it. It was definitely interesting to kind of see what's going on with that. I'm not an investor in block whatsoever. I still use Cash App, but that's in lieu of other things, like if a vendor doesn't use Zell or something like that. All right, so the banks, kind of the big talk recently, I thought this was really funny. I, someone sent me this morning. This is from January 24th, 2022. The European banks ace the US Fed's stress test, showing strong capital levels. That's obviously credit suice. You know, what can you really like say regarding this? I know for like the smaller banks, something like SVB or First Republic, some of the rollbacks on the Dodd-Frank Act made it so they weren't getting stress tested as heavily. But for something like this, I can't really understand, you know, so many things had to go wrong. If this is like, you know, an accurate kind of assessment that they did, so many things had to go wrong for something like credit suice. And credit suice has been on the decline forever. Obviously, Deutsche Bank is getting hit today. You know, is that from, there actually being issues with Deutsche Bank, or is it more from like just a general aversion that the market is having for this, for the finances right now? I'm sure we'll kind of like see that. But certainly, I just found this kind of funny to read. To dive in a little bit, what happened with SVB is they kind of just screwed up their risk maintenance. In banking, you have kind of long-term assets and shorter-term liabilities. But you wanna structure it in a way that that discrepancy becomes a little bit more equal. Essentially, your assets and your liabilities have to be at a similar duration, so you know you kind of ladder maturities and stuff. SVB didn't do that. They had long-term T-bills, which are safe. But what happens is when you get stressed, i.e. like a bank run, and your liabilities kind of come up, and you're in a market where you have increasing interest rates, so therefore the assets that you're balancing that against are now depreciating in value, you get obviously a very, very bad time. Signature obviously went under. First Republic is struggling. That has been such a wild ride. And I mean like one day it'd be great news. I mean, you can see this little bounce up here. This is after markets. And then just a real steady decline. You had it where, okay, everything's good. Everything's gonna be backed. And then you had it well. It seems that the CEOs and the C-suite executives sold out about here and that made everyone nervous. And some more good news came and then it went up again. And then we had Yellen say that, well, maybe not everything's gonna be backed in a blanket sense. And this is, you know, holders of this stock. I just feel bad for them. Especially you guys who were taking the gamble kind of in this lower area. That's a rough feeling for sure. Let's see. I'm gonna pull this up for you real quick. Obviously, Tom spoke yesterday about a lot of these regional banks holding a ton of commercial backed, commercial mortgage backed securities. And I was reading this report earlier and it was interesting. It was kind of talking about like the issue we might get into. Let's see. Yahoo had a kind of a headline that it was saying that this report says that 1.7 trillion exist in unrealized losses. So what's essentially happening? And this report was going over why these things are invested in, mortgage backed securities. So what happened as it's saying was during, oh, we got the break coming up. We come back, we'll talk a little bit more like what happened in the inflation of mortgage backed security number wise in bank holdings and kind of what the raising rates themselves just like with the Treasury, Treasury's what that kind of says. And if this could be kind of a toxic thing for banks as a whole. Guys, stay tuned. We will be right back. If you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market, then Rocket Equities and Options Report is a newsletter you should try. Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them using a combination of fundamentals and technicals. Sign up for Rocket Equities and Options Report today with a 30 day money back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. 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And then what we see from here now in order to kind of balance out the asset, excuse me, the liabilities here, the deposits, the banks started investing in mortgage-backed securities. And this is a pretty equal kind of increase ratio-wise. So what is the problem here, essentially? So that as it stated in this paper, is like the interest rate risk of MBSs are very large. And again, this is true for all long-term, like fixed rate assets, basically. So it points out here, it says the average duration of bank securities is about 5.7 years. The loss from an increase in interest rate can be computed as the duration, then times the change in interest rate. So they took the period from January 2022 to now, and that was an increase about 2.5%. And kind of a quick calculation on that means the value of the securities holdings will fall by around 14.25%. Banks total security holdings, again, mainly agency-backed mortgage-backed securities and treasuries, stood at 5.5 trillion in December 2022. So this implies that securities have a lost approximately 780 billion. This is slightly larger than the FDIC's estimated, excuse me, estimate of banks' unrealized losses on securities at last year's year end, which was at 620 billion. And it says, regardless, these are large losses equivalent to 28% to 36% of total bank equity. So what happens, I mean, obviously they're gonna hold these things in maturity, right? In a national setting, this would be okay. They don't have to cover their liabilities quickly but if you get things that start occurring like what you saw at SVB, your traditional bank runs, you could be in a major problem here. Now, hopefully there's a bit more risk maintenance within the sector itself and it's not kind of like a bad standard that they're doing right now. But with things with what Yellen said the other day, which just increases fear for the banking sector entirely, I mean, on these smaller banks you could see runs occur and it's interesting in the sense that one of the things I'm setting this up, one of the things that I read was that the market is now starting to price in. I saw this on Reddit. The market is starting to price in, not decrease in interest rates but no longer an environment where interest rates will be increasing. And I don't know what people kind of misunderstood about that. And what I mean is what Powell was saying was that we won't increase rates anymore if the credit lines shore up, right? And so if the banks keep operating the way that they had been, rates are definitely gonna keep increasing. What the whole bet is itself still is that this market has to contract. So, what does that look like? If banks, if those credit lines do start shoring up and I mean, what's gonna happen is you're gonna see more closures of these smaller kind of banks in the worst case scenario, right? Or a worst case scenario. However, what I think that's something to look at. I think what's interesting though, too, kind of like in this realm is that the stronger, like more like capital, like highly capitalized firms, I guess, they're still kind of floundering, not floundering, but not really moving much at all. Bank of America, obviously, is a large JP Morgan or anything like that, but you would expect, like in a interest rate rising environment, banks tend to do very well because they just get more return. Oh, this is Boeing I'm looking at, that's awesome. Give me a second, let's see here, that was my issue. And this is obviously a one year, one day, let's maybe go just, let's go a six month or something. You're still seeing this downward trajectory and I think that this might be a little bit irrational and what I mean by that is I think these institutions with a lot of, I don't wanna say irrational because a lot of people actually are moving their money out of banks and that's a smart thing to do and into like money market funds, but I think that it not being a little bit more robust equity-wise, equity price-wise, might be a miscalculation in the market itself. If it does turn out that these smaller banks do collapse, I think these larger institutions, especially like JPM, will be fine. However, like I was just saying, there is a massive movement out of banks into money market funds, which is traditionally what happens. Let's see. If I had to have some figures for you regarding that. So yeah, and this is actually an analysis done by Bank of America. The assets under management for money funds has now exceeded, excuse me, 5.1 trillion up over 300 billion over the past four weeks. They also counted the biggest weekly flows to cash since March 2020, which is the biggest six-week inflow to treasuries ever and the largest weekly outflow from investment-grade bonds since October 2022. Now this here says the next bubble. We'll see what happens with that, but this is kind of just a visualization of what's occurring with that. Again, like money that's not gonna be insured and moving into money market funds just kind of have better returns, especially at this time. I just do think there is room after a little bit of dust has settled that these larger finances will be a good investment choice, at least. So we just kind of have to wait to see what happens regarding that. In the realm of metals, well actually here, let's do this first, just another kind of interesting thing. And this is going back to what was going on with commercialized mortgage-backed securities. The office rates are down 30 to 50% and so stocks like BXP, SLG, let's pull a few of these up, are just descending and really like again like the problem, the guy who was even writing about this in a forum online was like, I don't get it, like why is this happening? And it's like, well, occupancy for these spaces is like 40, 60% and that's like down from 99% pre-COVID. I think like, I'm curious as to why the people thought that the commercialized ones would rebound. The work from home had been a push for quite a while and the world essentially gave people the means to do it. So many things are hybrid now. I'm working from home, I'll go in two days a week. You're gonna see a big surge in essentially like shared space, shared office space and those are the ones to really look for going into the future. Guys, we'll be right back, hang tight. Are you looking for a way to consistently add winning trades to your portfolio? Tom O'Brien is here to help. 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All right, so to wrap up the show, you know, I've mentioned a lot of times that I traded steel dynamics for a while and I still hold a little bit. There is some talk that steel really might kind of take off in the future. I obviously spoke, I think, maybe two shows ago about a new bill that said you know, if you're gonna build infrastructure or kind of anything in the U.S., you need to use raw materials coming from the U.S. and this is really bullish on steel. This particular article is from Cleveland Cliffs and it's speaking about the U.S. auto demand and how this is backing steel quite a bit. So Cleveland Cliffs expects to ship around 16 million in 2023, up from 14.8 million in 2022, bullish demand tailwinds. Their CEO said the full year shipment target was achievable as the company has now completed the most major equipment maintenance, okay. Conclaves, which is their CEO, said about five million will be supplied directly to steel consumers and about two million of additional automotive steel will be shipped to service centers and other processors. Yeah, in Cleveland and November, Cliffs announced $50 per unit price increase to its sheets of products as domestic steel prices were descending to a year-to-date low, with the PLATS TSI U.S. Hot Rolled Coil Index in Indiana falling to 620 from 1500. Let's, before this ends, let's take a quick look at steel dynamics on the trade. This is, let's see here. This is really peeled down a little bit. This might just be like a general kind of like market reaction itself. But it'll pay to see to kind of track these guys. This is about to test, it did test its day with volume almost and it did reject, but on low volume. So we might get a retest again and we just, you know, see what goes on when that happens and quickly we'll just take a look at new core. I can spell the ticker correctly. Very similar moves all the way through. Guys, listen, thank you so much for joining me. It was awesome and stay tuned for next week. Building.