 Hello, everyone. Welcome to Options with Doug. Streaming live daily on Bookmap Discord and the Bookmap YouTube channel at 1.30 p.m. Eastern Time. Let me give you my contact information. Actually, I'll go through the disclosures first. All Bookmap limited materials, information and presentations are for educational purposes only and should not be considered specific investment advice nor recommendations. Risk disclosure, trading futures, equities and options involve substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. And back to my contact information. Let me just point out the best way to contact me if you have questions after the webinar or any other time is through first of all Discord. My name in Discord is Doug P. And then there in Bookmap Discord, there is a channel called Options-Doug. And that's a great place to post questions about anything about options in order flow, hedging flow, Bookmap, SpotGamma, great place to post questions there, comments. And then finally on X, formerly known as Twitter, I'm at Doug Plus. And since I started this stream, I have not been as active on X as I used to be. But anyway, I do post there, try to once or twice a week. And you can also contact me there. But preferably Discord, Doug P. All right, the focus of my presentation today is options order flow, the impact of options markets on stocks and futures, and the influence of market maker hedging flow on price action. I have a two step process for trading and the first is planning. And I use positional analysis. I look at how traders and market makers are positioned in the options market and how those positions change from day to day to develop a thesis regarding the expected trading range and volatility for the day, as well as a directional bias. And the second step of my process is execution. And I look at real time order flow in Bookmap and real time market maker hedging flow in SpotGamma Hero to confirm my thesis and for setups. And when I talk about setups, I will be talking about setups in an underlying asset. And those setups can be taken with futures, shares of stock or options. So again, my analysis is based on the options market, as well as order flow and hedging flow and setups, I will be talking about underlying assets. Questions and comments are welcome. I will be post watching both the options dash Doug chat channel in discord, as well as the chat and YouTube for your questions and comments. And again, keep in mind my contact information for questions and comments that you may have after the webinar is over. My agenda for today, what I want to cover is news items, economic data events and earnings for the rest of the week. Then I'll go through my positional analysis. Then I'll review some setups from this morning. And then I'll talk about the live market. So if anyone has any stocks they want me to take a look at, when I get to the live market, please let me know and I'll be glad to do that. All right, so news items. Jobless claims came out today. That's not typically a market mover. The big thing for the rest of the week is the options expiration, the August options expiration. And let's take a look at something here. This is the SPX expiration concentration. Let me zoom in on this. So what this is showing is market makers delta notional at different expiration dates. So this is the, right here, this is the August options expiration, of course, for SPX. The quarterly expirations are by far the largest there, September and then December. But August, the thing to note here is this blue bar that's showing put delta and that is larger than the orange bar, which is showing call delta. So the past couple of expirations have been call dominated, much larger orange bar than blue bar. And this expiration coming up tomorrow is slightly put dominated. And the difference is the expirations last year in the bear market were typically put dominated. And that could lead to a put banner rally after the after expiration, the Monday after expiration. In a put dominated market, traders are long puts, market makers are short puts. And as those puts expire, market makers can buy back their short hedges. So that often can lead to a put banner rally in a put dominated market. And it's just the opposite in a call dominated market where all those calls go away. In a call dominated market, traders are short calls, market makers are long calls. And then they can sell their futures that they use to hedge. So looking at more of a really an evenly balanced market for SPX, slightly put dominated. Let's take a look at QQQ. And note for QQQ, the options expiration tomorrow is much more heavily put dominated. All right, so that's options expiration tomorrow. And then their next week, I'll talk about this in more detail next week. Just keep in mind the Jackson Hole symposium starts is next week. I believe that starts on the 24th. All right, let's take a look at some charts now. Talk about the levels in play for today. This is the S&P 500, ES Futures and BookMap. And before I take a closer look at this chart, I want to take a look at a larger time frame. This is SPX in a 30 day one hour chart. Note the downtrend continues. For a while, I was looking like SPX, 4450 may act as support, but it did not and acted as resistance. And now SPX is down right around the 4400 put wall. So let me point out the levels on this turn. I'm going to zoom in just a little bit so we can see this a little bit more clearly. So the key levels today. First, here's the lower and upper weekly expected move shown with the dash purple lines. This is based on the options market, then the dash blue lines are showing the lower and upper daily expected move again based on the options market. And we'll take a look at a zoomed in chart of this in just a moment. I'm just pointing out all the levels. So there's the lower and upper weekly and daily expected moves. You know, SPX is below both of those levels. And let me point out the spot gamma levels on this chart. And in seven lead farmer, I'll get to your question in just a moment. So first of all, the put wall. These are all spot gamma proprietary levels. Is it 4400? That is the the put wall is the strike with largest net negative gamma that can be expected to act as support and price SPX is right down near that level right now just slightly below. And then the next level up is the 44 60 volatility trigger that a spot gammas proprietary gamma flip level below that level. Market makers position on the gamma curve is negative in a negative gamma environment. But traders are long puts market makers are short puts and they have to trade with price to hedge their delta exposure. So as price drops and implied volatility increases, they have to sell futures and then as price rises and implied volatility drops, they can buy back their short futures. So right now, SPX is firmly in the in a negative gamma environment. And then above that volatility trigger market makers position on the gamma curve is positive. In a positive gamma environment, they have to trade against price to hedge their delta exposure. But right now, gamma notional for SPX is quite negative. And then the next level up is the call wall at 4600. That's a strike with the largest net positive gamma that can be expected to act as resistance and not in play right now put walls much more important. Alright, let me talk about shifts and levels for SPX. The volatility trigger did shift lower from 4500 yesterday to 4460. And also the absolute gamma strike is also at 4400. The same as the put wall. And that's a strike with the largest absolute start strike with the largest absolute positive and negative gamma. So 4400 is a key level today that is the absolute gamma strike as well as the put wall. All right, let's take a look at a another chart just a shorter time frame. This is SPX for today showing the levels that are in play for today. Lower daily expected move, SPX trading below that level, lower weekly expected move, SPX also trading below that level. And then finally the put wall which should act as support, SPX is also trading below that level. All right, N7 lead farmer as so that implies I assume you're talking about the exploration concentration for SPX, SPX being somewhat put dominated. I don't know if there are any statistics for that or not, but that's just by observation last year that was the typical behavior in a put dominated market. And also I have shown charts in the past of the move lower April, May, June, July. Just look at the expirations and the behavior after those. Those were call dominated and look at how the, now I'll try to bring up a chart tomorrow for this. The how the market move lower for a few days after expiration in a call dominated market and the mechanism mechanism is just the opposite in a put dominated market. But this is really somewhat more slightly put dominated, neutral to put dominated. So we'll see. All right, so this is book map and a book map I have, excuse me, apologize for my voice. So I have my own cloud notes here and I'm showing the SPX levels. There's the 4,400 put wall and price broke below that. There's this 4,410 level that was noted as support in the spot gamma AM founders note really acted as resistance along with the lower weekly expected move for ES. Then I also have my levels on this chart. Here's the 439 that did act as support earlier today. Also, here's the 440 absolute gamma strike and put wall. Again, I apologize for my voice. Sorry. So these levels have been very important in trade today. And note the point of control, the purple line is right on top of the lower weekly expected move. So there's the point of control shifted down. So it's right on top of the lower weekly expected move. All right, so those are the levels in play for the ES today, ES futures. SPI levels, SPX levels, very key today, as well as the lower weekly expected move. And note this liquidity that's been in the order book. Since about 9 a.m., right at around 4409 finally got filled just below the SPI 439 level. All right, so I talked about shifts and levels lower for SPX, both volatility trigger and absolute gamma strike shifted lower. And for SPI, the volatility trigger call wall and absolute gamma strike all shifted lower. So very bearish shifts lower for the SB500. Let's just see where, let me just check something. All right, so this lower daily expected move for ES is quite low. That may not be correct. I'll need to go check my numbers. Let's go back to, let's take a look at this chart, SPX one day and see what is down below. So not a lot in four, as far as spot gamma levels go, gamma levels until the 4373 level. So pretty big gap lower. If SPX continues lower, broke the put wall. We'll take a look at the Vano model in a minute. So this is a pretty bearish move lower, definitely a bearish move lower. All right, so that's the SB500. Let's take a look at NASDAQ. NASDAQ, much more of a trending market today. And before I take a closer look at this chart, I'm going to take a look at a couple of other charts just to take a look at QQQ levels first. QQQ, no gamma levels in play for today, but round number is very important. Here's the 364 level acted as resistance. Some support around the 360 level. 363 acted as resistance. And now QQQ back down toward the lower of the day. And on that make that a little bit easier to see. Let's take a look at NDX now. So gamma levels for NDX above and below put wall at 14,700. All right, let's go back to book map. So again, a book map. I've got my own cloud notes. I'm showing NDX levels, big round numbers for NQ, the zeros in the fifties, and also the QQQ levels. So first of all, this zero gamma level for NDX around that level acted as resistance. This morning pre-market before they opened, then there's the 15,000 level as well as the QQQ 364 acting as resistance. So again, I'll talk about setups in a few minutes, but just beautiful, mechanical downtrend this morning in SBX where NQ, whereas the S&P 500 was more of a level to level somewhat of a range bound market in the early morning. All right, and again, I'll talk about setups in a few minutes. All right, let's take a look now at some other information that I use in my positional analysis, my planning for the morning. So first of all, here is Gama Notial. This is market makers position on the gamma curve at the beginning of the day for SBX, SPI, NDX, and QQQ. And note all of these numbers, I generally don't look at NDX, it is not significant compared to the others. All these numbers are quite negative and all over one billion negative, which is again, quite negative, pretty unusual. So what this means for SBX, SPI, and QQQ, traders are long puts, market makers are short puts, and they have to trade with price to hedge their delta exposure, and that tends to enhance volatility. So if price drops, market makers are short puts, they want to remain delta neutral. So they have to sell futures to hedge their delta exposure. On the other hand, like I was talking about with a put banner rally, when price increases, implied volatility drops, or those puts expire, market makers can buy back their short futures. All right, so again, all those numbers quite negative. Let's take a look at one other thing. I'm going to take a look at the Vana model, which will give an illustration of this. Oh, and I forgot the shifts and levels for NASDAQ, for QQQ, the put wall shifted lower, and the absolute gamma strike shifted lower, both to 360, and that is also bearish for the NASDAQ. All right, back to the Vana model. What this chart is showing is market makers delta notional on the vertical axis, price on the horizontal axis, there are two curves on this chart. The gray curve is showing how market makers delta notional would change with changes in price only, and then the purple curve adds implied volatility to the equation. That's showing how market makers delta notional will change with changes in price and implied volatility. So let's see where SPX is trading right now. It was trading below $4,400, so I've got it at $4,395. So that's right around here between these two lines. So what this is showing is if price continues to decrease and implied volatility increases, market makers will have to continue to sell futures to hedge their delta exposure, and that tends to enhance or increase volatility. On the other hand, if price increases and implied volatility drops, market makers can buy back their short futures, and that can lead to a put Vana rally. All right, so that's SPX. Let's just take a look and see what VIX is doing. So for the day VIX is up 0.44, just around 2.6%. So right now VIX is dropping a bit, started to move higher. Let's just zoom in on this. VIX started to move higher right around one o'clock, and then made the high of the day around 145. So we'll keep that in mind when we take a look at ES. All right, so that is the SPX Vana model. Let's take a look at QQQ, QQQ, pretty similar curve, trading around 361. So this Vana model with a very pronounced skew from right to left, moving higher from right to left is typical in a negative gamma environment. So this right now QQQ spot price is right around 361, and that is indicating that as price continues to decrease or decreases, market makers will have to continue to sell futures. They'll sell NQ futures, and as price increases, they can buy back their futures. All right, so that's the Vana model and based on this and also the very negative gamma positioning for market makers, my thesis for the day was definitely looking for higher volatility, wider trading ranges, again higher volatility, and then based on the shifts lower in the key daily levels for SPX, SPY, and QQQ, as well as NDX. My thesis directional bias for the day was definitely bearish. All right, let's take a look at some setups now. So first of all remember looking at VIX, started to move higher right around one o'clock, and we'll take a closer look at what happened around that time, and then around 145, VIX shifted lower. So NSYNC with the move movements in the S&P 500. All right, let's take a look at HERO now. See what options traders have been doing. I'm going to go to, this is Spot Gamma HERO. HERO stands for Hedging Impact Real Time Options, H-I-R-O, and this chart is showing price for SPX. This is the S&P 500 signal, price for SPX, and options trades for a combined signal, options trades and market maker hedging activity, for a combined signal for SPX, SPY, XSP, and ES futures, all into one combined signal. So if you trade any form of the S&P 500, this is typically what you want to look at, whether you're trading futures, ES futures, or SPY shares, SPY options, or SPX options. Let's zoom in on this. So N7 Lead Farmer says probably buying puts. Yes, traders were buying puts today, and we can just take a look at this total signal for today. And you see that it is negative, negative notional value about minus 3.1 billion, and we can separate outputs and calls. So today they are buying puts and selling calls. Both of these numbers are negative. Orange showing calls. When the number is negative, that means traders are selling calls, and the blue is for puts. These are in terms of delta. So when the blue line is falling, that means that traders are buying puts. When traders buy puts, market makers sell the puts, and they have to sell futures to hedge their delta exposure. So let's leave this separated out like this. Zoom in on the morning session. We'll go to about right here. So this is the cash open. This S&P 500 signal shows a hero signal before the cash open at 9.30 a.m. Of course, ES options trade before the cash open as well as SBX options. And then spy options start to trade at 9.30. So what this chart is showing is that from the open, pretty much traders were buying puts, shown by that falling blue line. Initially, they were buying calls. This is pretty typical of the S&P 500, and that happened. That went on until about 10.30. And then they started selling calls and price continued to move lower, made one more move up just before between 10.50 and 11.00 a.m. and then moved lower in sync with what options traders were doing. So let's go take a look at book map of the S&P 500. So we know that traders were buying puts from the open. I'm going to zoom in. So there's the liquidity 4409 to 10 that finally got filled. So there's the cash open 9.30, a test of the 441 level, and then aggressive sellers come in, move price down to the SBX 4410 level, and then price goes down to the 440 level. That's the SPI 440 level there. And I thought this was interesting. This range for about 15, 20 minutes or so, this 28 level, acting as resistance, led to multiple short scalps. Note that during this time, large traders were really in here with large, very large iceberg orders, trying to move ES higher. So this chart is showing, sub chart first of all, showing this rising light blue line, showing that larger traders were buying with iceberg orders they used to hide their size. And then this on chart indicator is showing the number of contracts here that were executed, 8,509. And at the zoom level, it's showing 59 different transactions. Here's 5047, 36 transactions, 1400, 64, 1600, 26. But there was just no follow through. And each time, price reverse lower right around this 28 level, looks like one, two, three, four, five tests until price finally resolved lower. And note as, so that after that somewhat strong burst of iceberg orders, this really leveled off. And they, here was the last, last of the large iceberg orders as price started moving lower. So again, this led to multiple short scalps at that 28 level, no follow through for the, for the iceberg orders, large traders. And here's that kind of final move up to the, right to the lower weekly expected move that we saw on the hero chart before price moved lower to the 4,400 put wall and below. So short setups, it took a little bit more work in the SMB 500 versus the NASDAQ to, to find these shorts, but the levels acted very well, acted as expected back to the live market now. All right. So that's the SMB 500 multiple short setups, primary target being the 4,400 put wall, price traded below that, finding support at the 4,39 level spy 4,39, three tests of the 4,410 of the lower weekly expected move. And now right at one o'clock as Vic started rising, price moved lower, sliced right through the put wall, made one test of the 4,39 level right down to this high liquidity at the 4,09 level. And let's just want to do is scroll back and see him out, see how much of that was in the, see how much was in the order book. So I'm scrolling back just a little bit. This may be difficult to see, but it looks like over limit order of over 2,000 contracts right at the 4,09, 4,09.25 level. And note it again, this may be impossible to see, but there's a line here vertical line. That's the large lot tracker indicating there was a large player in here. It looks like over half of that was a single trader with large, very large limit by order there. So that was filled. Also some iceberg orders coming in around that level. Still not enough to push price higher as aggressive sellers keep moving price lower as well as sell stop orders. And note CVD for the entire day, quite negative. Kimlet to volume Delta, that's over 38,000. Also icebergs, very positive 20,000, but are not enough to push price higher. Stops negative, CVD negative. All right. So precision charts, futures trading, asked me to zoom out. I'm not sure why I can do that. And then we'll go to the NASDAQ. So here's what I have. And then regarding your issue with rhythmic data, please contact book map support support at bookmap.com. And you can also go to the bookmap.com website. Chat should be active. It's not active all the time, but there is live chat. Just contact support at bookmap.com. It may take them a little bit of time. They're very busy, but they will get back with you. So, you know, the sooner you send your question to support at bookmap.com the better. All right. So yes, I am looking at rhythmic data. And that is what I have for the S&P 500. And note also that I have a subscription to DX feed historical data. And that I typically open book map about seven a.m. Eastern time. Rhythmic has one hour of backfield data. And then I load about 12, 12, 13 hours of backfield data to get to the futures open at six p.m. the previous day. So all this data up until seven a.m., there's no MBO data that's from DX feed, no MBO data used for stops and icebergs. And that starts at seven a.m. when I actually open bookmap. So there you go. There's the zoom to value, the zoom view, the uptrend that started at 4.39 last evening and broke right at the cash open. And now ES is trading lower for the day. So there's your zoomed view. All right, let's take a look at NASDAQ now. So NASDAQ just a beautiful downtrend, very mechanical, multiple back entries after the resistance at the NDX 14951 zero gamma level. All right, let's go take it. So order flow was definitely bearish today. I mean, it's very obvious. Let's zoom in on the morning here in the morning, just looking at the sub chart, the stark blue line showing CBD trending down, light blue line showing iceberg orders, also trending down. And then finally the yellow line showing stop orders also trending down. Very bearish, no reason to even think about looking for a long in this situation. Just look for pullbacks in this trend down about 150 points for NQ. Let's take a look at HERO. Let's go back to the total signal. Take a look at NASDAQ. So just like the SB500, this is a combined signal for NDX and QQQ. We'll zoom in on the morning. So in the morning, initially HERO, the hedging flow was definitely bearish. And let's see. So options traders were buying puts in the morning shown by the falling blue line. Actually, if we zoom in close, if we zoom in to just the over the first half hour or so, they were also selling calls. And then they started buying calls right around 10.07, but they continued to buy puts. So let's go back and take a look at book map. So this move lower continued on until about 10.45. And at that time, you can see the shift in order flow somewhat cumulative volume delta. So first of all, right around the 14,900 level, CBD levels off, drops as traders continued, large traders continue to sell with iceberg orders and sell stops continue to fuel the move lower. And then finally right around between 10.30 and 10.45, aggressive buyers start to finally come in and that helps to move price higher. And you can see the, first of all, the shift in cumulative volume delta, as well as the aggressive buyers coming in, moving price higher. And finally a break of that downtrend. Let's go back and take a look at hero. So price started to reverse higher right around 10.40, 10.45. And at that time, we know that traders were buying calls. And they stopped buying puts and started selling puts that show them by the rising blue line there. And there's that point where price starts to move higher. Go back to the total signal. And it's, you can also say, I think it's a look, there's a little bit more clarity with puts and calls. But you can see that hero starts to finally make higher lows right around 10.40 or so. All right, let's take a look at some stocks. And so far for the day though, the hero signal for NASDAQ is still negative. Notional value around 454 billion. So net for the day. Traders are buying puts. They are buying calls. But put buyers really driving the price today. You can just see with the strong correlation with the blue line and then in price action. So again, when traders buy puts, market makers sell the puts and they have to sell NQ futures to hedge their delta exposure. And they're buying puts in NDX and QQQ. Let me check for questions. All right, so C. Joe asked, please check our vol, I assume you mean realize volatility for individual stocks and do some call out and ideas. I'll get to that in a minute. I have a few stocks I want to review. So I typically am this is not a trading room. It's really more of an educational room. I'm not really making call outs and real time call outs and trading ideas. That's that's not what I do. I'm, you know, I guess there's a saying, give a man a fish, feed him for a day, teach a man to fish, feed him for life, or something like that. I'm not sure if that's the exact words. I believe the that's a Chinese saying the founder of Taoism. All right, so that and that is my philosophy for what I'm doing today. So let's take a look at some stocks. Let's come back to the total signal. Here's Apple bullish day in Apple. I'm sorry, bearish day. I'm still reading, reading chat. All right, so very bearish day in Apple and traders are selling calls and buying puts looks like the call sellers are in charge today for the most part. Let's go take a look at book map. So just beautiful trends in Nasdaq today. Down trend a bit of a consolidation up trend back to 363. And then the downtrend continues down to the NQ lower weekly expected move. Here's Apple. Nice downtrend. 175 is the put wall level that should act as support. Note the price breached that level went back and rechecked then moved down to the liquidity at 174 went back and rechecked the 175 put wall more liquidity added at that level. I'm looking at the heat map. This is showing a history of the resting liquidity sell limit orders there and price is now moving back down as move back down to the 174 level as traders were taking negative delta positions. All right, so that is Apple. Let's take a look at AMD downtrend earlier today. Let's take a look at hero for AMD very strong correlation between hedging flow and price action. So traders let's just zoom in on the morning for the main move lower and the lines show that traders were buying puts and selling calls. Both negative delta traders take the market makers take the other side and they have to sell stock to hedge their delta exposure. And Google at least earlier today Google was kind of bucking the downtrend. Let's take a look at this. So remember Apple breached its put wall and Google breached its call wall today the level that should act as as resistance as traders were taking positive delta positions. So at least up until about one o'clock traders were primarily buying calls when traders buy calls market makers sell the calls and they have to buy stock to hedge their delta exposure sweep TSL sellers at 221.92. All right sorry about that I need to turn that alert off. All right, so let's go take a look at book map for Google. So Google up until about one o'clock very strong. Here's the 130 call wall breach of that early in the morning nice uptrend up to 132 and let's go back and take a look at hero and right around again one o'clock when the indices started to move lower Google moves lower as well and options traders take their foot off the gas stop taking positive delta positions and Google moves lower and finally Tesla I wanted to take a look at that as well note all these stocks in this list below or on my watch list these are large cap tech stocks primarily I'm going to zoom in on the morning session and Tesla so Tesla I'm going to separate outputs and calls so what this is showing in the morning initially put buyers traders were buying puts not doing much with calls in the morning helping to move Tesla lower so around 945 they stopped buying puts the hero signal levels off and they start selling puts and buying calls buying calls shown by the rising orange line and selling puts shown by the rising blue line so let's go take a look at book map and see how that played out Tesla so Google doing its own thing this morning Tesla as well more of a choppy session and Tesla today let's zoom in so Tesla here's the quick move lower as traders were buying puts they stop then they start selling puts start buying calls price moves higher let's just go back and check on gamma levels back to hero check for gamma levels so no gamma levels in play put wall down at 220 and the put a hedge wall up at 230 all right let's let me check for questions and Mivid thank you for your comments glad the analogy analogy helped and thank you for your thank you for your kind words I hope this helps everyone all right let's take a look at the live market now so options trades hedging flow has been bearish all day here's the S&P 500 let's go check book map all right so here I would not you know I don't see anything to do here I would certainly not be looking for a long today and the long the short opportunities we're up here right at the 4410 level and just above at the lower weekly expected move let's take a look at Nasdaq all right so so far order flow continues to be very bearish let's take a look at hedging flow let's go to Nasdaq so still overall net net negative delta it looks like some options traders may be coming in now with positive delta options trades options trades the hero line rising just a little bit I'm just scanning I'm ranking my hero signal looking for strong and weak signals so here the strongest signals IWM not helping much today IWM and definitely on a downtrend today let's take a look at AMD looks like the hero signal is definitely leveled off let's go back to book map AMD so AMD quick drop lower in the morning first hour then really consolidating just above the 105 level looks like now the S&B 500 ES is continuing lower down toward the 438 level all right my time is up I want to thank everyone for watching interesting day today I think the from I guess from my point of view the the money's already been made today if you were just looking for shorts in an ES, NQ or many of the stocks that I looked at other even Google after one o'clock so thanks again remember tomorrow's options expiration slightly put dominated that may change tomorrow may become more put dominated and I certainly expect gamma notional to become more negative for all the indices as well so thanks again options expiration tomorrow and I'll talk about it tomorrow afternoon see you tomorrow bye