 We're back. We're live. I'm Jay Fidel. This is Think Tech. American issues take one. And we're going to discuss today what is going on with Trump and the documents and the indictment and how all of that affects the other issues on the table. Okay. And for this discussion, we have our regular contributor Cynthia Sinclair and our special contributor, Manfred Henningson. And we'll be right back in a moment. Okay. Welcome, you guys. Cynthia, I know you're loaded. You have researched this. You have looked at everything that could relate. And we are going to, we're going to find, what was your term, Manfred? We're going to find some beef on this bone. Manfred Henningson, emeritus of political science, UH Minoa. He was there since 1912. Manfred, thank you for coming to the show. Cynthia, I am so interested in what you have to say. All right. So, you know, the ultimate question, and we wrote it out as the title of the show. Let's look at it. How do the Biden documents, classified documents, change things? Are they meaningful with regard to the Trump documents? Well, if you want me to go first, I'll tell you this morning, I was listening to the political affairs c-span, where they take people's opinion, they take, you know, Republicans, Democrats, and, and independence, and people get to just come, just regular people get to come on and say what they think. And it was a stark warning, if you may, at what exactly is happening with the polarization of our news cycles. And every single, every single person, almost 201, had said that they thought that an investigation into Biden was good. They, it should happen for different reasons, of course, across the board from the Democrats, think it's good just to show that he's not really guilty of any crime and, and to show the differences between the two, the Trump documents and, and his, and then the Republicans on the opposite extreme who think that Trump did nothing wrong because he was the president when he got them. And the only person that has committed a crime is Biden, so that, you know, the polarities are just ridiculous. And the independence were sort of split down the middle. One thing that surprised me, and that is there's, there's like five Democrats, five Republicans, and five independents that are questioned. Okay. Well, out of the Democrats, three of them think that one of the posts on truth social, the truth that Trump did, saying that he's got dirt on everybody, they're convinced that they've been planted by the Secret Service or somebody. There were two independents that felt the same way. And I thought that was interesting. And when we think back to the beginning of all this, when we were asking what's Trump going to do with them, why does he want them? And often it was mused that he's going to use them as ways to get back at his opponents. And who knows if that's true, but according to his own words on one of his posts, he's got dirt on, he's got info on everybody. So it's just an interesting stark difference that we're looking at here, as far as we know that Trump resisted every single minute. He tried to keep them, he told his lawyers to make a written statement to the FBI saying they'd given back everything. And then the FBI went out and found hundreds more. Then we can compare that to Biden, who found a handful, a handful, 12 so far, is what we're being told. And instantly, immediately gave them to the archives and alerted the DOJ. So the differences are just ridiculous even to try to compare the two. But of course, we know that all this what aboutism that's going to be coming from the right. And I listened to Fox News, I forced myself through it for about, I tried to tune in on each one of the shows, the three big ones, Laura Ingraham, Hannity, and you know that crazy Tucker Carlson, and all of them are crying from the rooftop, poor Trump, and how bad Biden is, and how criminal Biden is, and trying to give cover to Trump. And I think, gosh, how do they not choke on the hypocrisy of what they try to present? And of course I have more, but I'll use that as my time for now. So Manfred, you know, the hypocrisy is nothing new to the GOP. Attacking Biden is nothing new. They would do it whatever the circumstances. They want to undermine his administration in every way. They want to undermine his candidacy for 2024 in every way. So the question is, you know, how real a threat is this the dance of the competing documents? Does it change the calculus? And in what way, inside and outside? Well, I think for Biden, it's simply an image problem. It's not a substance problem. Whereas in Trump's case, you know, he is full of dirt all over. I mean, there is no space in his image that is not touched by dirt. So for that reason, whatever the Republicans want to do, that will not work. I mean, what I find so amazing is the sloppiness of this document management by the Biden staff. I will not even blame him, but the staff. I mean, we are talking about documents that go back to the Obama when he was Vice President under Obama. So I simply do not understand that there was no alert popping up in the Biden circle before he became president. After he left the Vice Presidency that they did not check whatever he may have had. I mean, the sloppiness and the messiness of that management, I think may be more damaging to the image of Biden than what these documents represent. I mean, it's a chance, right? You know, you cannot compare them, the two sets of documents. But it's the image. Yeah, well, you were talking before the show about the Paul Krugman article stating a certain, you know, that is, you know, from, for me, it was very, very surprising when I read that article in The New York Times yesterday. There's no mentioning of that whatsoever. For Paul Krugman, you know, the Nobel Economics Professor says, what was hit line? Will it be morning in Joe Biden's America? Question mark. And he says, yes. He says, you know, nobody will be able of touching the record, the economic record, the lack of a recession, you know, inflation going down, the consumer confidence at a high. But there's one point that he makes, which I think is accurate. He says even, well, he doesn't say even if all of it's true, he thinks his predictions are true. But even if this is the reality, 47% of the American population will not believe it and consider the notion that America is really in a mess. Now, that is a political reality. And Cynthia referred to that, you know, when she was commenting on what she saw today on one of the talk shows, America is divided. And this division, you cannot somehow rationally understand. It has nothing to do with reality. Yes, let me stop you right there, because I think that, you know, the elephant in the room is the press. When the whole Trump thing started, you know, the press saw it as raw meat. When after him, you know, all these guru types were saying, oh, this is much more important than the insurrection. An indictment here would be easier than an indictment on the insurrection. That's what Merrick Garland should be focusing on. He should get his indictment. Well, he didn't do it. And Jack Smith didn't do it yet. I'm still waiting. I have this vision of a metronome every day from one side to the other, no indictment on anything. So, you know, this is troubling. The other thing I want to mention is that when Snowden, you know, did his trick and leaked all these highly classified documents, it came out that 1.5 million people in this country have top secret clearances. We can quibble about it's 1.4, 1.5, but it's millions. When I was in the service, I didn't know anybody who had a top secret clearance. And I certainly didn't. So all of a sudden, now, everybody's got a top secret clearance. It was a piece of the paper is that people in the Department of Commerce have top secret clearances. What's going on? And when you have 1.5 million people holding top secret clearances, you know, it's not that hard to find a Snowden who will leak it. And the press hasn't really focused on that. You know, this is a systemic problem. It's not only Trump, and it's not only Biden, as the government has been you know, missing in action on controlling classification and declassification of secret documents. It didn't focus on that. So now we have Biden, you know, found with secret documents. And for the moment, you know, let me say Cynthia, I don't think there's any hard evidence to suggest some sort of planting and spiritual possibilities. You know, we may have different thoughts about that. But you know, bottom line is, you know, he made a mistake or his staff made a mistake. Now the press is running around like a banshee attacking Biden, or at least respecting the GOP attack on Biden. It's the old question of what's the raw meat flavor of the week? And you know, what distraction will we be fascinated with this week? And you know, and it largely results from two factors. One is that people don't know the difference. They don't know what it is a top secret clearance. They don't know what should be happening with classified documents. And the other is you always have these two madcap polar news sources. One is the Democrats looking for raw meat and spending all day, you know, making it a big deal, even when the insurrection is a much bigger deal. And then you have Tucker Carlson lying to us. And half the country believes his lies. Is it any wonder that the country is confused? Is it any wonder, you know, that the reality is escaping the national consciousness? So I ask you again, what does this mean in terms of its implication? Long term, you can argue the merits. Is it really a distraction or not? But what does it mean in real politics, Cynthia? Well, this is the thing that it seems like most of the mainstream media, not the right wing crazies, but the mainstream, but even all of them are sort of doing this. They're making it about the classification process. Instead of everything, they're saying, oh, well, everything's more classified than it should be, which to me muddies all of the water to make it so what they don't want Bidens to be quite so bad. But in the process, they're going to undermine what Trump has done. The difference here is that Trump is not so much being investigated by Jack Smith about the documents themselves as much as the fact that he harbored them. He didn't give them back. He lied about saying he gave them back when he didn't. And all of that stuff. So as far as him being charged, documents, you know, aren't really. You think he will be indicted? I actually do think he will be. And if he goes to court, he's going to truck this. What about the fence out, isn't he? Absolutely. I don't think it's going to be a big and anything much more than a slap on the wrist, to be honest. You know, we think about great. He's going to be indicted. Maybe he'll get thrown in jail. It's never going to go. Did you agree with me that the documents is a kind of teapot issue compared to the insurrection? Oh, gosh, yes, absolutely 100%. And even a teapot issue compared to just the telephone call alone to Georgia, to, you know, Ravensburger when he said, I just need you to find 11,780 votes. So I think that he's on tape. And hopefully Fannie Willis, who has already seated a regular grand jury now and is moving forward. I've always felt like that's the number one best case to go after them for. It hasn't happened yet. And furthermore, if you look at the distraction side of this, you find that Marjorie Taylor Greene is trying to clean up her act. And, you know, and the press is focusing on Kevin McCarthy and Marjorie Taylor Greene and her friends. And they're making news. And it's just only negative news. And then Joe Biden comes out and he says, I'm going to try to work with McCarthy, even though, you know, McCarthy has, I would not, frankly, I just have to admit, I would not have a beer with McCarthy. Not even. It's very fascinating to listen to the two of you. In a way, you are reinforcing what you are criticizing. You're talking about nothing else. But this story that in the rest of the world is considered to be a freak show. You know, American politics has become absolutely a joke. When I'm reading, you know, the European press, it's commenting on what is happening in the United States. They do not understand how much the serious perspective got lost. I mean, it's almost as bad as the English press, you know, where you have the freak show surrounding Prince Harry and his memoirs. So both Anglo, the Anglo-American societies are not talking about the reality that we are confronted with. I mean, in a way, you could say sometimes we are pulled back into the real world through the Ukraine. And, you know, what is happening there, the absolute mess that Putin has created for himself. And then you come to China with Xi Jinping, you know, you have riots in Chinese cities at this point. So, I mean, this somewhat self-centered naval show that you are supporting, you know, by talking about nothing but this really uninteresting issue, you know, of the Biden documents, I find it disturbing. It's a tempest and a teapot issue. Yes, it is. You know, and the thing is that, you know, you have to shake it and bake it, and we three are going to find out what the real state of the world is, right, Cynthia? Yes, please. And I have a question for Manfred. As the resident expert right now here, how do we get to the truth? How do we boil down all of that stuff and get to the truth of it? Because that's where it's frustrating for people that are trying to get to the truth of it, but get it looped into that whole my side or your side thing. Truth of what? Truth of what? Of that tension of this division? Well, the truth of items that are happening like this, like the truth of our condition, our global condition and our future. The global American condition. The American condition. More so the American condition. It's not global. The madness of American politics is not the global madness. I mean, in a way, you could say the global madness has become enforced supported by the American madness. What I always think, you know, this is the place of stability where madness does not play a role, but now it's America, which is really in deep kimchi. So I have my back to my question of how do we boil all this partisan nonsense back down to the facts and the truth of things? It seems that everything in truth has been devolved into opinion. How do we get out of the opinion and back to the truth? That, I guess, is my main question. Well, I mean, Jay, last time said, you know, we need a major crisis, you know, and he went, I think, to the extreme when he talked about this crisis that America needs. I don't, I mean, when I'm reading Paul Krugman, I think it's not the economic situation that will lead us to this confrontation. And I do not think there's anyone who will invade the United States. Now, the crisis could come if Putin will use nuclear weapons. The crisis could come if Xi Jinping decides, you know, they are going to invade Taiwan. I still don't believe that he is as stupid as Putin. But nevertheless, things like that could trigger this reconnection with reality. Oh, so what do you mean? So, I mean, I have a vision from what you say, Manfred, of FDR standing in front of Congress on December 8th and calling for war and bringing Congress together, unified on that issue. That's not going to happen, is it? You see that possibility where some leader stands in front of Congress and says, okay, we're in crisis. We have to get together on things. You think that will happen? Well, that will certainly happen. But whether that would change the situation that Cynthia is talking about completely, I don't know. Remember, there were even after FDR speech on December 8th, 1941, there were still a lot of people in the U.S. who were against the U.S. entering the war. Now, the Germans and the Japanese helped FDR when they declared war in the United States on the 10th of December, you know, after Pearl Harbor. So in that sense, he had the support of Hitler and Hirohito when he made that declaration of war. It was not a one-sided declaration on part of FDR. Now, I don't know what will, look, an invasion of Taiwan is not the same as Pearl Harbor. The use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine would be, I think, something that will invoke NATO activities, and that could lead to some sobering. It's interesting that those two examples you've given are external and certainly they're international. But what about another violent insurrection? What about other broad violence, widespread violence in this country? We have that risk. What about the collapse of the government? Hey, you know, what about the failure to change the debt ceiling? What about that? You know, these things are internal. Yes, but look, we have not talked about the debt ceiling. That may come in June or August. I don't know at what time, but I think at that moment you will have maybe the reconfiguration of the old Republican Party in Congress, and they will start a fight with the insurrectionist wing of the party. It may lead to the, that would finally lead to the division of the Republican Party and two parties. But look, I'm not in the business of speculation. At this point, I do not believe that they will go as far as not taking care of the debt limit. No, well, hopefully, but this is interesting how the conversation has gone. We started asking about how the Biden documents change things. And in a way, they're a small factor. It's that small perspective. There are so many other threats and problems the country faces internally and externally, but we really have to look at the larger, the comprehensive environment in which this is all happening. You had something Cynthia? If I may, something that I heard repeatedly when I was listening to Fox News is they think, or they are saying anyway, that they think Biden's going to send soldiers to Ukraine to take the heat off of himself for what's already being talked about. And all this crazy, as you like to say, mishigas is happening over there on the side of the right. They're already starting to come up with these crazy stories about what Biden's going to do and how if there's any kind of acceleration in Ukraine, it's going to be because Biden is what they were saying on the news, is because Biden wants to take, is going to create something over there so that he can get out of all the trouble he's in. Well, that's standard GOP. You know, you attack somebody for doing what you yourself would do. But, you know, Manfred, we have this impeachment of Homeland Security, the leader of Homeland Security. That's really going to happen, I think. And there's going to be an investigation of Hunter Biden, and the House is going to be occupied with all kinds. I mean, talk about distractions. This doesn't look good. I don't know how Paul Krugman, you know, can come to an optimistic point of view, because Congress is not only dysfunctional, but Congress is one huge plethora of distraction. How can we make public policy and solve national problems? Do you agree with Krugman about this? Because we're on the cusp of distractions as such we have never seen before, all irrational. I was surprised when I read it. In a way, I was stunned that he could make this prediction. Well, it was not a prediction, but his assessment of the American economic situation at this point, and his praise of the Biden administration. Especially, you know, I'm still reading the January 6 report by the commission, you know, Adam Schiff is the main author or editor. And when you read that, you know, I've been through of the 800 pages, I've maybe managed to read 400 of them. And it's a horror story. I mean, confirming what you just alluded to, the dysfunctionality of Congress. Yes, it's a dysfunctionality of Congress that becomes manifest in this report. But on the other hand, you have also to see that this report is a success story of Congress as well. I mean, what you have here is a documentation, you know, of an insurrection that was not successful. Now, whether this report will prevent further insurrections, you seem to indicate, you know, the possibility of others to follow. I think this report being out there and reading it will be helped to prevent that from happening. Because when you read these detailed interviews, you know, and I mean, the footnotes are stunning as well. When you read that, it's a horror story of an institutional system that was close to collapse, but then saved itself. I think they wanted to make that point. They wrote it up with that specific thing in mind. They wanted somebody like you to read it and find it a horror story. And what's his name? Avi Melber is writing or said he was writing a book about the same thing, interpreting the report. So, you know, what we have is a horror story, but probably the most horrible thing is that this was intended to inform the Department of Justice and Jack Smith. And Jack Smith has been in office six weeks and it's crickets. We get little pieces of news out of that, but we don't have an indictment. And it is the most important thing. So let me ask you, Cynthia, would an indictment change the calculus? You know, I'm not sure that this thing with Marilago versus, you know, Biden's documents changes the calculus all that much. It's going to be a who shot, John. You know, what about kind of proceeding? But what about insurrection? What about an indictment over the insurrection at the top levels, at the Trump levels? How would that change the calculus? I know we're not supposed to speculate. You know, Manfred said that, but I like your thought. Go ahead and speculate. I go ahead. You're good at this. I'll tell you, instead of speculating, what I'll do is I'll use an analogy. As a mom, if my kids did something wrong and I did not punish them and there was no consequences, they would do it again. And it would get worse. Every time it would get worse and worse. Okay. If they got caught right off the bat and they had some kind of quick, you know, accountability, they stopped doing it. That is how everyone, that's how we operate, right? So by not having any kind of consequences to what happened on January 6th, every person that was involved, every person that thought it was an okay thing is emboldened. And they are, you know, thinking that, yes, it wasn't okay thing. Look, there's been no trouble. So obviously, if there's no accountability, then we are asking for it to happen again, whether I will make a speculation as to whether or not it will. I think we're setting ourselves up to make it happen again, if we don't do something right away. And so sooner we have accountability, the better. Go ahead, Manfred. You have the accountability. This fat volume, you know, is an extraordinary document of how to really record this insurrection. I mean, this is an extraordinary historical document, not only for the US Congress and the United States, but globally, it's a stunning document. But you have also the sentencing of a lot of people who participated in the insurrection. They have gone to prison. So the warning that no, no, no, no, I mean, they have long prison terms, some of them. And I mean, all of these organizations, you know, that we're involved in, that Kuanan, the Proud Boys, and all of these other idiots, they are now, you know, registered publicly. So people know about it. Now, whether an indictment of Trump will be the culmination of all of this. I don't know. I think the culmination of all of this is, we're the midterms. And, you know, that he did not get the red wave, you know, in the house. He wanted to get the Senate majority and he didn't get that. And I do not think he will become president in 2024, whether Biden is running now or somebody else doesn't matter. I think he has lost it. And I think, I mean, he has lost this opportunity. I do not think that not only this report, but everything that is connected with it, and the, you know, somehow the legal processing of the insurrection that we have been witnessing, and it will continue. I think that has educated part of this constituency that continued to believe in the big lie. Well, you know, you have McCarthy, who is a Trump fan, largely Taylor Green, a Trump fan, the Freedom Caucus, largely a Trump fan. He still has influence there somehow, whether, you know, he comes out and makes, you know, speeches or tweets about it. You know, in fact, all these people are associated with him. Furthermore, you know, of the, what was it, 147 people who voted against the electoral college on January 6th? There are no members of Congress, yes. Yeah. I mean, so we have the, you know, the inmates in the asylum, and, you know, they're playing out, you know, a series of steps that would be, that are going to be very disruptive. So I guess my question, Cynthia, is Trump down, or is he out? We know he's lost some influence, at least in, you know, the public eye, but he's still there somehow. What's the likelihood of him staging a comeback? I feel that the report, while it is immense, and I have hardly been able to get through very much of it, but having watched all of the hearings and all of that stuff, and it was great. And it was very consequential and very thorough. But if there's no outcome from it, it's just a book. It's just a story that everyone on the right doesn't believe. And they're already, we know Jim Jordan is already going to investigate the committee and they investigate the weaponization weaponization of it. And until Trump gets indicted, until there is an actual legal charge, I don't think that the report is enough because they've already dismissed it as just the Democrats doing it anyway. And the rhinos, the two rhinos, you know, that's how they, I watched the Fox News every once in a while, just to hear what they're saying. And that's what they think and that's what they're saying. And now it's not just the, you know, the crazy people that are in the asylum, they're running the asylum now. And so we've got these, as we see the part of the asylum, yes, the president of the asylum is still, you know, part of it. I mean, Biden in the White House and the Senate isn't either. So you have one chamber of the asylum that is sane. The other is part of the asylum is divided. I mean, when you saw, you know, the speech by the new leader of the Democrats, minority leader, Jeffrey, I mean, that was, I always, when I heard it, I said, this is a declaration of war. And it was absolutely remarkable, you know, Pelosi could not have given me better speech than he did, you know. So for that reason, you have, you have this resistance. And I do not think the publication of this volume is, you know, a political phenomenon, which really tells you something about the, the sanity of the House, at least part of the House, the half of the House. And I think this document will be used, you know, you, I cannot think of any other legislature in the world, you know, that has done something like it. Whatever you may think of the United States at this point, and, you know, the world does not look with great admiration to it. You know, they think American politics has become a freak show. And, well, I mean, there are other countries, Great Britain, you know, during the Harry and Megan story has become a freak show also. We don't see that as much, because Harry and Megan are not treated the same way in this country by the press or by the public as they are in Great Britain. But I mean, both countries are in political trouble. I mean, in England, it started with Brexit, and that has still not become resolved, you know, the problems with Northern Ireland. Man, we're almost out of time, so I want to ask you to put it all together in your closing remarks. We've kind of come to the conclusion that the documents that Mayor Lara and Biden documents are really not that important in the larger scheme of things, and that we should evaluate the larger scheme of things and find ways to improve it. Find the canary in the coal mine, if you will. My personal view of that is American support for Ukraine is the canary in the coal mine. But anyway, I like your thoughts about where all this goes. What does it mean to us and our future as Americans? Since you go first. Oh, no, I want to hear what you have to say first. Well, I agree with Jay, because he has come down, you know, from this high platform he was on before. So for that reason, I absolutely think that's what has, and I think it will happen. Now, whatever you may think of Paul Krugman's editorial, which you can read tomorrow, I'm sure, in the local newspaper. I mean, I was stunned that the political dimension, you know, of the crisis that we have been talking about didn't enter his assessment. Now, whether that is, as Jay seemed to indicate, a failure of his thinking, or whether he is right. Well, I don't know, I cannot make up my mind about it. I find it, I found it stunning. But I think you are right when you say it is not, I mean, the document issue will not define American politics for a long time. I think America has sobered up to some extent, and the midterms were a good indication of that. They surprised me. And I think this kind of sobriety, political sobriety that was shown by the American people during midterms will continue. Now, whether Biden will be the candidate or not, I don't know. I mean, at this point, I think the documents may not be as important as I initially thought. They are an image problem, but his performance in other areas in the economy, the Ukraine issue, the way he treats Putin and the way he treats Xi Jinping, I think will be more important than anything else. And the GOP, majority in the GOP will recognize that also. I like to add a thought to that is that, you know, I think we're kind of suffocating. We have all these national issues, social issues, justice issues. We need a government that is functioning. Instead of having a government that is functioning, we're suffocating for the lack of response to national problems. This is very serious. And it's going to continue. And we'll have, you know, we're suffocating to the point where it's going to become a crisis on one thing or another for the lack of congressional action, for the lack of a responsive decision-making by the Supreme Court, and for the lack of power by Joe Biden. So, you know, I think that becomes a crisis when all of a sudden you're out of air, where the suffocation becomes almost complete and you're gasping and there's no public policy to help you. I don't know what happens. Anyway, sorry, Cynthia, your thoughts. Tony, sorry, I completely agree with you. And it is the perfect lead into what I'd like to say as my last thing. And that is, I lay this at the feet of the media. Right now, the media is very responsible as they chase after this thing and that thing. And this shiny object over here and that shiny object over there, and they spend all day on this document thing instead of talking about some of these other things that are so important also. And it is the media that is behind all this polarization stuff too. Choose your side, one side or the other. It seems that even the media has evolved from looking for the facts and the truth of things and devolved into opinion. And that has bled out into the public sphere also so that it's hard to find the truth or to find the facts or to find the important issues because we're always following the media off down some shiny object trail. And so what I'd like to see is them to stop doing that. And I think this 24-hour news cycle thing does not help and I'm not sure what can be done about it, but I do think that the media has a very big part to play in all of this. Well, I hope you guys will be game because I think next week what I'd like to suggest for a continued discussion here is the 122 pages of the staffer report on social media that did not get attached to the what was it 845 page report from the select committee. And why? And how important is that? And where does it fit in the larger picture? And how serious is social media? So don't respond today, but the guys are willing, I can schedule that for next week. But you give us the report? If I can find it, I will, Manfred. Okay, very good. Thank you very much. Both you guys, Cynthia Sinclair, Manfred Hennigson, it's been a great discussion. And you know, these discussions are always amazing because you never know where they're going to go. That's true. Aloha. Thank you so much for watching Think Tech Hawaii. If you like what we do, please like us and click the subscribe button on YouTube and the follow button on Vimeo. You can also follow us on Facebook, Instagram, and LinkedIn, and donate to us at thinktechhawaii.com. Mahalo.