 Let's get started on this journey ahead of us and I just want to just briefly dwell on why we're doing this. So this is very definitely a story of the emissions reduction for the whole of the UK and it's inspired by the UK Climate Change Act. Scotland has its own Climate Change Act, slightly different basis for assessing progress. In the UK Climate Change Act we have the long term goal which is net zero reset last year to net zero on our advice. We also have these things, the carbon budgets, which take us every five years on the glide path to that long term goal. This is inspired by the need for us to give advice on the sixth carbon budget so the act lays out that the Climate Change Committee should provide that advice and then it's down to the Westminster Government to consider whether they can accept our recommendations at some point of the next year and legislate for a sixth carbon budget. They have to legislate for the sixth carbon budget from 2033-37. They are not obliged to take our advice but I very much of course hope that they will. So let's begin then and let's just talk about what we are telling you about today. So last year was a big moment for us. We did this report on net zero emissions and net zero for the UK. What we are trying to describe then was how the UK would look in 2050. That was the report that also recommended that Scotland should get a net zero target for 2045 and we tried to paint a picture of what life would look like having reached net zero. This is about the journey to that. I think it's actually a much more interesting thing to think about the steps and the changes that will get us to that outcome. So that's what we are trying to do today in this report. To do that we've explored the changes in several different ways. This is the luxury I suppose of having had that report last year is that we can now build on it, try and explain a bit more the different ways that we can approach the challenge of getting to net zero emissions. So we've done that with these exploratory scenarios. You've got widespread engagement there in green. That's a scenario where people are more willing to respond to the challenge of the carbonisation and more willing to change the consumption of those high carbon goods, switch to low carbon goods businesses as well. Wysbyrd innovation is a really fascinating scenario where we're looking at a world where people are more willing to accept technological change technology itself is cheaper. We've also got quite a cheap power price in that scenario. Headwinds is similar to what we said last year. You don't get those benefits from behaviour change quite so much and innovation quite so much. So you're looking more to infrastructure kind of quite centrally planned world with lots of carbon capture in that world. That's the three exploratory scenarios. We're not saying any one of them is the right scenario just that they are three ways that can get to net zero and they all do get to net zero for the whole of the UK. And we can also build a fourth scenario which I'm really excited to have this. This is something that the committee we're really keen to explore which is what happens if you get all of that? What happens if you get all the infrastructure, all of the behaviour change, all of the innovation, if everything goes really well? We call that tailwinds because of course there's a favourable journey behind us, a kind of tail, a strong wind blowing us towards that net zero goal. So because of all that we get to net zero early. So an early 2040s for that target overall and we'll come on to what that implies for Scotland at the end. But really exciting to have it. What we'll talk about most is for the next 20 minutes or so is the balance pathway. So that's the pathway for UK emissions where we're trying to make decisions in each of the sectoral challenges that we face in cutting emissions that we regard as balanced. So the committee have really explored those things, come to a conclusion about what we think of as a sensible, feasible set of changes that can play out over the next 20 to 30 years. The crucial thing about this pathway is that it drives progress as quickly as possible through the 2020s and then it opens up, it tries to keep open the options for the other exploratory scenarios that we've just talked about and that's the goal here is that over time you're not trying to close down any of those options that we've described in the illustrative scenarios overall. This is the one that we used to make our recommendations. This is the pathway that I'll show you in just a second we've used to describe the sixth carbon budget period. You'll see how that fits on the chart. It's also the basis for the recommendation we made to the prime minister just last week on the 2030 NDC. So the target for 2030 for UK emissions and happily the prime minister has already agreed that target. So we're halfway there to strong endorsement from the prime minister for this work. Okay let's get on to the good stuff and to talk about what we are recommending. Again this is for the whole of the UK. We are in this chart, you can see I hope the central set recommendations that we've got for the UK. You can see the sixth carbon budget period in orange there again 2033 to 37. What I hope you can see is the S shaped curve to the purple line on that chart that's our balance pathway and that S shaped curve tells a story about what needs to happen over the next 30 years. The early part of this transition we're not making as much progress as we might like to on cutting emissions and that's because we're making up for lost ground so all those areas where we haven't been decarbonising as quickly as we might like things like transport, heating the carbonisation industry as well. We're scaling up our policies to try and address that but you don't get the emissions return initially. You then get over the 2030s the investments that drive the emissions down start kind of flowing through the economy and you see this kind of sharper fall in emissions and then after the after the period of 2037 and onwards we tail off again and we get to the final part of net zero as we run out of the low hanging fruit. The big headline here is that in 2035 the implication of our recommendation on that pathway is that the UK needs to cut its greenhouse gas emissions by 78%. So those of you with long memories will know that just last year that was the target for cutting emissions by 2050 for the UK same target that was in Scotland as well as a percentage so that has been brought forward by 15 years so very very strong statement of ambition that's the implication of net zero. The path is front loaded so we're doing 60% of the emissions reduction in the first 15 years and 40% in the next 15 years that's true in Scotland as well so we've got 60% in the next 15 years of the Scottish emissions reduction on the Scottish pathway. All of that's very important that idea of going early is important because of in particular three things so the economic recovery which can rest we think in large part on the kind of investments that will drive us to net zero we're also opening up those options that I talked about earlier if we don't act early we don't open up the options later for new industries for new jobs also crucially for further emissions reduction if we want to do that and crucially and I think this is crucial what we're doing is minimising the cumulative contribution that the UK is making to the problem of climate change itself so you may know that the accumulation of CO2 in our atmosphere the accumulation of greenhouse gases in our atmosphere is the central issue with climate change we should be minimising how much we put up there as much as possible so we've really front loaded the emissions reduction for that reason and this just shows you you know why that's important so this chart is looking at the global goal this is global to meet the Paris agreement and the temperature goals that are in that that agreement that was signed five years ago so all of you on this call I'm sure will know that the Paris agreement talks about well below two degrees centigrade of warming with best efforts for one and a half well these are the two lines that would deliver that and what you can see is this is the historical position in black per head of the population this is global and it's basically been flatlining per head of the population so emissions per head this is tonnes of carbon to carbon dioxide and what we need to do is get on to the red line which is the line for well below two and preferably the green line which is the one and a half degree line and if I just overlay on top of that the UK story I think you see something really interesting there so you would more or less halved our per capita emissions from where they stood in 1990 to the point where they're actually more or less at the global average now and then what the implication of what we're recommending is is that we reduce those emissions those those per capita emissions as quickly as we can and we actually hit the one and a half degree line and then cross over it at 2035 so we think that's very ambitious and we cushionally we think that's a Paris aligned proposal so it's that's a big part of what we've recommended overall for the UK now for the UK I'm going to talk about a set of things that matter in the UK wide and of course in Scotland as well and this is one of the one of the key charts that we've brought you in our new publication today this is one a new take I suppose on what needs to happen to get to net zero and my colleague Mike this morning described this memorably as the rainbow chart so we don't have unicorns this year this year we've got we've got but we do have rainbows for you so we've got um uh we've got four different steps here to abate carbon uh to get to the goal of net zero the top one is the challenge of becoming more energy efficient reducing our demand for high carbon activities uh you'll see that by 2050 it's a relatively small part of the overall mix of abatement but early on it's massive so it's a really important thing to deliver ongoing emissions reduction especially as you're scaling up all that policy that we talked about earlier um the next section is um is is is is is the take up of low carbon solutions the big wedge here is electrification so this is us electrifying the British economy electrifying the Scottish economy the red bit is hydrogen using hydrogen as a low carbon vector and fuel and we've got a bit of CO2 capture happening there too particularly in industry electrification is the big dominant theme here because more and more we think electrification is the is the best route to decarbonisation because it carries with it the ability to use all those green electrons we've been producing increasingly from offshore wind um and the devices themselves tend to be much more energy efficient so this is the story of of transport decarbonisation also heat decarbonisation using all of that through the economy the blue bit there you see there is expansion of low carbon energy that's that's the that's the remaining emissions reduction from our power sector and the green bit is the bit that should remind us all this is not just an energy story this is also about what we do with land so storing natural carbon storage and then increasingly using that as part of engineered greenhouse gas removal in in combination with um with carbon capture and storage so let's move on then to the next chart which is one that'll be familiar to you from last year's report if you've followed it this is looking at the role of behavioural change and technological change 40% are there about of emissions reductions to 2035 we think our tech our pure technology so you could think about closing power plant doing something kind of without anyone really having to engage people in the country don't tend to notice these sorts of changes that's been the story of emissions reductions so far in scotland and the uk over the last 20 30 years in the main but interestingly the rest of it more than half involves some element of behaviour change so there's a clue here that this is resting now on a combination of technological improvement and behaviour change and i suppose the other parts of this is unless we start talking about that properly that's going to be a difficult thing to pull off so the big message there for policymakers now this is i think i mean i'm biased but i think this is the the most exciting and optimistic bit of our report so we worked really hard on the question of costs in this report and because we have that pathway now all the way to 2050 because we have five different scenarios for delivering it because we've really looked at the steps that would be necessary to deliver that carbon abatement genuinely literally thousands of options for carbon abatement that we've been tracking and plotting and what we can do is something we haven't been able to do before which is to show you the profile of investment that delivers that kind of goal and it is mainly an investment story and the headline here is that we need to scale up the amount of capex that's happening in the uk economy by about 50 billion by 2030 and then keep it at that level over the over the remaining years that reveals something a bit more than just net zero which is this bit and that's the exciting bit for me which is that it buys you net zero but it also buys you this big cost savings this is the story of us not spending on fossil fuels really exciting because you can see that that cost saving builds up progressively over the years and eventually it cancels out the investment cost and i think the other thing you can talk about here is that given the extent of investment there is an economic impact that is GDP moving that amount of investment in a year is about an eighth more than the investment we did last year so that's a clue that this is a prospectus for investment across the whole economy if that investment is done as you come out of a pandemic rather than rather than it being a drag on the economy this is a boon to the economy this is us using that spare capacity in the right way and actually growing GDP so big big important message in this about yes the cost overall will be low because of this net impact i'm talking about but also the net impact is more likely to be positive if we if we front load it again and this is just another take on that now what we do when we make these cost assessments is that we roll them up into that net position i've just talked about and we can express that as a portion of GDP and that's the resource cost as we as we think about that last year we talked about a resource cost of between one to two percent for achieving net zero in 2050 this year we can show you what that looks like over time and you can see that here it doesn't get in the central case above one percent at all so really great news that we've got a low overall cost less than one percent as a portion of GDP throughout the next 30 years that is mainly because we've got cheaper and cheaper power so just a few months after we published our report last year we got um the latest outcome of the latest offshore wind auction if you plug that in you get this big cost reduction across the economy as you'd expect and that will continue if those cost reductions continue to fall crucial thing here is that the central estimate is more like half a percent of GDP and every reason to believe it's it's not going to cost at all when you wrap into the wider benefits of the economic recovery that i talked about also the wider health benefits that go with that so that's extremely exciting it does though mask another challenge which i am not i'm not showing you in this chart which is that there's a need to distribute costs evenly so for some sectors there is more cost think about the challenge of decarbonising heating for example or decarbonising industry you can you could look at those as as real costs against areas where we now see savings like the trust surface transport transition so we think it's cheaper now to decarbonise surface transport than to continue to use fossil fuel transport so that challenge of spreading it is one that we are we are definitely raising with ministers that yes the overall cost is low but you've got to distribute it fairly okay i'm not going to go through this in the same detail that i did in the the launch this morning but just to say if you're interested in this what we've tried to work at was a description of the changes that we see along the path for UK emissions over the coming years and i'll show you the animation all the same so it tells a I think a really important story of what's what's going on here you hopefully you can see some of the metrics on the right hand side about what's changing as we roll along that path so we start in 2019 pre pandemic just over 40 reduction in our emissions from 1990 levels the pandemic is going to make a big impact in 2020 but we're not assuming that those impacts last forever so we return to trend in some areas we assume a slightly longer return to trend like aviation and shipping for example but essentially we're being prudent about how we're approaching the COVID impacts not assuming that we get some lasting benefit and i want to come back to that later in our Scottish advice so that's 2020 we roll forward to 2025 and you can already see that we're starting to make some some progress here so we're we have to already now move out of discussing single issue progress like the discussion of the power sector progress we've been we've been making over the last few years and we're going to be talking about progress across the economy that's the that's a big challenge so i know we've been saying this for a long time but this is this is now a challenge that is genuinely cross sectoral genuinely system wide those changes happening in concert to deliver emissions reduction and you've got all sorts of things now happening across the economy to start that process of really dramatic emissions reduction what you're not seeing so far is the payback yet in the in the shark fallen emissions and that's what i was referring to earlier that they need to scale up the mid 2020s is a is a is a period of us scaling up the policies that will then eventually deliver those investments that i talked about to get us to net zero scaling up our offshore wind of course scaling up the installation of low carbon heating scaling up all the infrastructure we'll need for electric vehicles scaling up to carbon capture and hydrogen production we've got the first carbon capture and storage industrial clusters opening by 2025 in our assessment so let's move on then to 2030 and now we're really going so emissions have reduced by nearly two thirds from 1990 at this point the ndc that we recommend for 2030 was 68 percent by 2030 68 reduction from 1990 as the 2030 ndc and the prime minister accepted that advice uh that was expressed without international evasion and shipping emissions which is the un rulebook if you if you add them in it's a 64 percent so it's the same target this is the key point in this transition really keen to land this with you by 2030 all new investments all purchases are buying large zero carbon so all the cars on the roads all new purchases of cars all new purchases of vans new heating installations thereabouts at new plant and machinery there there zero carbon around 2030 so just think about the challenge of getting to that point that's the policy challenge that's before ministers today ministers and Westminster and ministers in hollywood as well you are across the UK hitting some pretty remarkable metrics here so a million heat pump installations a year by 2030 we've got 11 million insulation measures being fitted each year into British houses 40 gigawatts of offshore wind installed in UK waters by this point we've got five industrial clusters doing ccs so we've got some serious co2 capture happening I would expect that that Scotland will have at least one of them at least I hope that's the case we're seeing falling consumption of meat by 2030 we've cut our consumption meat by a fifth and that's then allowing more land to be freed up to do natural carbon sequestration so 2035 now we're nearly we're really motoring at this point kind of maximum maximum momentum almost 80% reduction in emissions by 2035 that was the 2050 target as I mentioned earlier and you can see what's driving all that progress on the right this is a critical year because this is the year that we're predicting that we will have cleaned up the electricity supply so we're going to stop using unabated natural gas to generate electricity at this point so that's a big big moment and we've also got to the point where natural gas boilers have a sales have ended so 2033 is the date that we think that we need to end the sales of natural gas boilers after that point it will be important to sell boilers that are only that if they are ready for a hydrogen version later so that's that's a kind of big big milestone here only 15 years away and we don't really have the policies in place to deliver that yet but lots of change happening in industry lots of hydrogen production lots of rollout of ccs and I'll just roll on to 2050 and just briefly to say that by the time we get to 2050 we're now we're matching any residual emissions especially from aviation and agriculture with greenhouse gas removals there's been a bit of further diet change and basically it's been normalized by this point we've got a kind of point where zero carbon is just it's just the norm we've that's a genuinely zero carbon society I think that's entirely possible and what we'd said in our report which goes into a huge amount of detail this is that you can do it but it's it's really difficult so you know we've got to we've got to really put in place that the policies to deliver that over the next five years I'm going to make it that that close otherwise we're not going to be on track for that UK goal of 2050 and the Scottish goal of 2045 I just wanted to give you a sense then of why this is a golden age for policymaking if you're interested in it this is just what's been committed by the governments around the UK in the next year and I actually I think we could have probably made a longer list a huge number of things now being committed and these have really got to deliver we only get one goal at getting this right so those of you who are in the community who are paying attention to this I think our political our political masses need to hear this that this is the opportunity before us getting this right so that that transition plays out properly over the next 10 15 years okay now let's talk more about about Scotland and just to say that we have written to Rosanna Cunningham on a letter that you can find on our website and I'm going to be taking you through that in the last five minutes so I wanted to start with a Scottish version of the investment chart that I spoke about earlier so the Scottish version is very similar in proportion to the UK version of the investment challenge and there are similarly proportionate savings that go with that so we're talking about Scottish capital investment increasing by five to six billion pounds per year by 2030 and then being maintained at that level to deliver the to deliver the net zero goal you can see how that's made up sector by sector the big yellow chunk there is the challenge of investing in our electricity supply in Scotland the green bit there is the land use sinks of which Scotland has many the purple bit is surface transport and surface transport is a really interesting one because that's where a lot of the big savings are so that's the capex requirement to deliver the Scottish target if we move on I want to just talk about inventory changes and the methodology changes beneath this work we know that there are a set of revisions coming to the Scottish inventory of emissions UK as well they're going to be approved by an expert panel which advises the UK government over the coming years I'm afraid I don't know when that will happen but that panel will discuss these changes there's two that really matter so Pete Lins which in Scotland is of course a very big deal accounting for all emissions from peatland in Scotland we think could add between six and 10 megatons to the latest Scottish inventory and that is very very material and the second thing that's going on is the change in the science on the global warming impacts of non-CO2 greenhouse gases especially methane and if we look at those two things I've shown you on the chart here they do make a big difference on on the Scottish emissions inventory and we in this work are assuming the high end of both of those things to be prudent it's possible that we'll get a low end in which case that will make the challenge slightly easier for Scotland but these are real emissions so it's worth saying that we have to tackle them so we're assuming as you'd expect from us a prudent a prudent outcome there so that we can make our assessments the next thing I wanted to talk about is the balanced net zero pathway in Scotland without greenhouse gas removals so this is without ghd removals and the really interesting thing here is that we have achieved a wholly zero carbon energy system by mid-century in the UK and in Scotland the bigger pardon as you would expect what you can see on this chart is that actually we um if we go out beyond 2045 we're at the we're at the net zero line without looking at greenhouse gas removals and that's something that I find really exciting this is a really decisive shift I mentioned that there was 60% of the reduction by 2050 that's going to happen in Scotland over the next 15 years but what you can see I hope in this is how much agriculture matters so it really dominates emissions by mid-century in in Scotland just another take on that and um we're in 2050 here not 2045 and what we're trying to show here is that all scenarios that we've built this year go beyond what we said in the net zero report last year again this is without greenhouse gas removals um we are excluding them and I'll show you why in a second just to demonstrate how much further we get than the further ambition scenario that was just the name of the scenario that we had last year what you can see I hope in that further ambition chart on the right is that last year we had a lot of removals in there this is where we get without those removals in the five scenarios that I've just talked about in Scotland and then on to that final question of removals in in Scotland and the key thing is that we think there is lots and lots of scope for Scotland to do those greenhouse gas removals so we've actually found more genuine emission reductions in Scotland and those emissions removal engineered removals especially options mostly bex are still there for Scotland which makes us more and more confident that the 2045 net zero goal is achievable so lots of options there and the range that you can see is between two and 10 megatons of removals by 2045 in our scenarios now that is of course very exciting and I'm is delighted it's great that we can do that and talk about that um what I wanted to talk about just to end is the is the 2030 target in Scotland and if any of you have heard me speak before you'll know that I've had some thoughts and concerns about that that target for some time since it was set by parliament last year it was not set on our advice so we talked about the needs to build the kind of pathway that I've just described for you before we give give advice to Scottish ministers about those interim targets and the 2030 target was set at 75 reduction that is pretty tasty to put it mildly so that is a pretty ambitious target in our assessment of the balance pathway for the whole of the UK at the 2040 and 2045 targets for Scotland we think are in the right place 2030 looks very challenging so in in the assessment that we have made we are likely on that pathway to fall well short of the legislated 75% target in 2030 on the basis of the current methodology for the inventory we think we get to about 71% in 2030 but of course that method all these not going to be not going to be in place by 2030 so under those future inventory changes the balance pathway that we've been advising for the whole of the UK would fall short of the Scottish 2030 target by somewhere between 7 and 11 percentage points so quite significant short fall and I really wanted to highlight that and just to look at that bit more this is the five scenarios for Scotland and where they reach by 2030 the black line is the 75% reduction required by law in the Scottish climate change act and these are the five scenarios that we have built for the whole of the UK and their implication for Scotland and the headline here is that none of them get to that 75% target at the tailwinds now which is our highly optimistic scenario which we regard as an extremely challenging scenario and of course you require a lot of things to happen together and for everything to go well well that still doesn't get to the 75% target so we're talking about actually a really challenging target which actually goes beyond the kind of modelling that we have done and I did just want to end by talking a bit about why that is and then what we can do about it so the main thing that we've done in our modelling this year is that we've tried to work particularly with the concept of replacing capital assets at the end of their natural life so that part of the reason for the trajectory for the emissions reduction across the UK and in Scotland that we are that we are advising on this time is that we're trying to keep the cost low by replacing capital assets with low carbon versions of the high carbon asset as it comes to the end of its natural life that keeps the overall cost low and makes it quite a feasible transition overall it's that in the main that's holding us back from achieving that 2030 target so if we want to go further by 2030 an important to say that 2030 is not some sort of advisory target is it is the law in Scotland I'll list end on where we've made some given some advice on the things that we could do to go further by 2030 and I'll start by saying that the other thing that's playing out is the uncertainty of COVID so COVID might make those near term reductions slightly easier we're not again predicting that that might help if you want to go beyond that what we've suggested is that there are just a few options here to think about and we've described in here's recommendations not really recommendations they're more advice and something we'll be returning to to with the Scottish ministers over the course of the next few years first of them is bringing forward the adoption of BEX across the UK so doing that early in Scotland the early decarbonisation of the Grangemouth industrial cluster we think would also help we've got the potential at least to accelerate the scrapage of some of those high carbon assets that I talked about that of course carries an additional cost but then cuts emissions more rapidly and lastly on the question of decarbonised heat we think it could be possible to do an additional push with retrofit especially of hybrid heat pumps to cut the heat demand for Scotland and the emissions with it none of those options are particularly difficult to conceive of but they do take us beyond that balance pathway that I talked about earlier and therefore they're a challenge to Scottish ministers I suppose and that's really the last point for me is to say that this is in the round a huge challenge of course for Westminster but also for Holyrood and there is no escaping the fact that we need action in both of those administrations to get us to that long-term goal of net zero and I might add my own take on this is that we need a bit more than just action in those two places we also need those two places to properly cooperate on the challenges ahead of us that energy system challenge for the UK is one what Scotland will benefit from the Scottish voice needs to be heard in Westminster on how that transition should play out similarly Scotland has a set of unique characteristics that it needs to play to if we're going to get to the 2045 in Scotland which the 2050 target for the UK of course rests on but all in all a really optimistic take I hope on what could be achieved and with that I'm going to go back to Keith