 For most of the world economy, this is going to be a tough year, tougher than the year we leave behind. Why? Because the three big economies, US, EU, China, are all slowing down simultaneously. The US has taken some very important steps that are helping to the US economy, like the child tax credit that is contributing so significantly to reducing poverty in the US, like the infrastructure bill, like the inflation reduction act. These are things that are bringing more dynamism in the US, good for the US, good for the world. The US may avoid the recession. We see the labor market remaining quite strong. This is, however, a mixed blessing, because if the labor market is very strong, the fat may have to keep interest rates tighter for longer to bring inflation down.