 Welcome traders to another TickMail live market and trade analysis session with me, Patrick Manley. Before we get going here, if you can hear me and you can see the TickMail welcome screen, just type a Y in the chat box so I know we're good to get started. Thanks very much. And before we get going, as always, we want to add here to the risk disclaimer. Material provided information purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Most importantly, the charts and patterns that I'm assessing today are opinions held by me. They're not indicative of or representative of those held by TickMail UK or TickMail Europe Limited. So for those of you who are here for the first time today, just a brief introduction to myself after I graduated from university. I joined a city PLC consulting plan. I left with some colleagues and went on to successfully co-found and exit a consulting startup, which was focused on C-suite executive search for tech startups. Having a front row seat to the dot com bubble, witnessing people make and lose a fortune in the markets, sometimes quite literally overnight. I decided to explore my passion for markets with some capital to play with and some time on my hands. I started day trading or more probably day gambling, the S&P 500. After some early beginners luck, I racked up some solid gains. However, as is often the case, my beginners luck ran out as the market phase changed. I began to average down, giving back all of my gains and ultimately experiencing a significant six figure hit to my personal capital. Say this was a gut wrenching and sobering experience is an understatement. I had to stand back and figure out if it was feasible for me to make a living from the market. So I decided to get serious about trading and sought out a mentor with an excellent trading track record, working with my mentor for a period of 18 months or two years. This was a period of time during which I'm not, not just my technical gain in terms of developing a strategy that importantly seated my personality, researching, developing and extensively back and forward testing my strategies, all of which were underpinned by a rigorous risk management approach. Most importantly though, during this period of mentorship, I significantly developed my mental gain. And probably most importantly, I made the watershed shift from being a highly goal orientated individual focused on financial gains to becoming purely process orientated. So what does that mean? Well, it means I had to stop focusing on what I could make from the markets and start focusing solely on managing my mindset to allow me to consistently execute my trading strategy. Oftentimes in the face of negative feedback from the markets in the form of losing trades. But once you become process orientated and have a professional trading mindset, and you understand the true nature of trading being a numbers game in which you are simply playing the probabilities, you lose the emotional investment and hellish emotional rollercoaster of living and dying by the outcome of individual trades. So I'm no longer concerned with the outcome of individual trades or even a string of trades. My focus is on the next 100 trades because I know if I focus on excellence and execution, my edge will demonstrate itself over an extended series of outcomes. My multi strategy approach has delivered profitable annual returns since 2008. Since 2013, I've also been managing investor capital through my managed account service delivering annual positive returns. I'm currently responsible for managing a multi million dollar portfolio. Since 2010, I've also personally mentored over 100 private traders of all experience levels from complete novices to former CME floor traders in developing the technical and mental skills to reap consistent returns from the markets. In addition to my fund management and private mentoring, I'm also a resident market expert exclusively providing trade and market analysis to techno. Most recently, I have been involved in what I guess is a passion project for me as head of trading and trader education for leading trading education brand called fxcareerswap.com offering development and funding to retail trading talent at fxcareerswap. We don't just develop retail traders market and trading strategy knowledge. We work on mindset development through a structured program that culminates in managing firms capital at zero personal financial risk on a profit share basis. And if you're interested in finding out more about what we're doing at fxcareerswap, you can call the number on the screen here that's the trade desk in London or you could drop them an email and they'll come back to you with information about about the program. So before we jump into the charts, I just like to say if you have any questions or you have a chart you want me to take a look at that I don't cover in my review here, then if you just wait till the end and I'll open up a Q&A and you can either type the chart into the chat or I can unmute your mic if you're brave enough to want to over the audio system. Okay, so this week we're we're going to take a look into some of these intraday charts if we can identify some opportunities using a basic Elliott wave overlay looking for impulse moves that are either coming to an end driven by a loss of momentum and price pattern completion or we're looking at the corrective legs whereby we can align ourselves with a broader trend. So we're going to start here with the dollar index. So the dollar index topped out into this 93 42 and since then we've had a what I believe is an impulsive decline down into the 1940 low subdivided quite nicely into five waves. So what we what we'd anticipate now is that if we had finished this initial cycle to the downside that we should see a corrected pattern that normally would unfold in three swings or five swings and so what we're looking at now is we've had this initial move off the lows and we had a pullback here and versus that pullback what we'd anticipate would be a an equality swing so an equal swing to the initial move which would put us up into this 9180 and then if we bring in the retracement tool here you can see that that brings us just shy of the 50% retracement so that's the target at the moment for for this for this corrected pattern to play out. Now obviously we're seeing a bit of weakness here in terms of the dollar index at the moment rolling over it could be technically that this that we the correction has completed because although it's not uh although we didn't meet the equal legs objective that we'd ideally like to see it do doesn't necessarily always do that and the fact that we had a pullback and made a marginal new high from a from a technical perspective that's sufficient to to suggest that the this correction could be complete. Now when we get the confirmation of that well we don't really get confirmation of it if we take out the current swing low at 1940 and then what would that allow us to do well it would if if this is the the first oh sorry if this leg is complete now let me just remove this and I'll show you the type of pattern you could expect to play out so if we don't hold support here at at 1980 and we start to get some momentum to the downside and we click that low then what you'd look for then would be an interim three-wave corrected pattern to align with the next leg to the downside and you want to be thinking in terms of the scope and scale for that type of pattern uh let me just draw this in and then I'll extend it and show you exactly what I've been looking for so so you can see here this move off the highs you can see these type of correct it well you we've got a three-wave corrected pattern here on the out if you if you went into the hourly time frame you'd be able to see this more clearly but technically that meets the criteria so if we think in terms of the next leg here we can we can use prior price action to give us some cues or clues as to as to what we could expect in terms of the setup and so we'd be looking at um five completed down we're looking at first of all we need to take out the lows two and seven guys we'll get there in the end so we want to see a new low in the cycle doesn't it doesn't have to be a major new low just needs to take out this prior low to confirm that we have a a play developing and then what we'd anticipate would be that we are going to do this scenario in seconds we use that up here so we then extend to the downside and we'll be anticipating an equal leg versus this decline so maybe we don't extend that for let's see we get something like that so that would be if if this cycle is complete here at this high and again we only get confirmation on a new low but if that is the if that plays out then the first correction will be an opportunity to enter the market to target an equality objective at a minimum to the downside there is on the weekly chart a bigger downside objective at 8750 which which I've been tracking but for now in terms of the the initial the immediate opportunity firstly it would be on a break of new lows and the first pullback would be an entry on the short side or alternatively we we hold support and we have an abc quality objective that takes us into the 50 to 61.8 per cent retracement zone which would then set up an opportunity on the short side you obviously you want I personally I wait for for price pattern to confirm a candlestick set up but that would then give you an entry and that also could could be the setup for the equality leg to the downside now if you get in if you get in on that type of trade what's proven to do is to make sure that by the 50 per cent retracement of the last leg you want to have your trade as a risk-free position why is that well it's because what we could see happen and plays out many times is that instead of taking out the prior lows and heading down immediately for the equality objective we could again see something we could see a slightly more complex double correction before we take off the game to the downside so what would that look like well we look something like this where we get up here and we get a pullback but we can make another move up into to complete the double correction and then from there we can look for the equality objective so what's important here is if we once we get the equal legs objective which was sufficient for the correction to have completed then we want to if we get a reversal pattern that meets our entry criteria then certainly at the 50 per cent retracement of that leg we want to get the position to risk-free to rule out being stopped out in a double correction and then again once we've got if once we have if we hold that 50 we know that there's a high probability then that we're going to see that double correction and so that's that would allow us to align again with the trend given given reversal pattern confirmation so those are the two scenarios I'm watching in in the dollar index at the moment euro dollar shared this one we could have I mean technically we could have a way for low in place here and a major wave too low in place again we're going to need to see prices extend through the price here at 2150 but equally if if we can take out this swing high here at 120 76 then we can start to think about playing the first pullback here to align with this bigger opportunity to the upside equally what we want to pay attention to is the potential that we are we have if the dollar index was going to be moving into a double correction then we want to factor the idea that once if we get up here into this 56 to 1.8 per cent retracement zone that the euro could be putting in a bigger corrected pattern like so before taking off to the upside so we let the price unfold and watch for the confirmation before before getting involved but certainly at this stage this move off the low equal to the dollar indexes move off the high has impulsive qualities and and at the moment we we want to be thinking in terms of the long side of the euro and the short side in terms of the dollar sterling a bit of wippy action today with the boe but ultimately what I'm looking for here with sterling is a test of this equality objective on 37 59 on 37 16 which has been this range support and I think that then could be the opportunity to get in on the long side in sterling and again position for this to be the advanced initial advance initial correction and we could see something impulsive to the upside here in terms of sterling so we have to wait to see how how we play out there donnie yen so this move certainly has impulsive qualities to the downside subdivides nicely into into a five-way pattern so what we're looking for now is a corrective pattern to play out so initially what we want to think about is we have this move off the low and second so we have this leg here matching this leg so we could see a 110 1103 there let's just retrace our decline over here so that comes in around just ahead of the 78.6% retracement so we could get again double correction potential here but whilst we hold this 10843 support watch for reversal patterns at 1103 11020 and again what we're targeting will be the equality objective versus this move so we can still this this could on the on the higher timeframe on the daily timeframe still be a corrective pattern but it's what we're looking at here are more of the intraday opportunities and so we we want to watch how price response here do we get bearish reversal patterns if so we've got a high probability shorting opportunity to to be targeted to move down to the 10670 zone. Ozzy again with the Ozzy if it's a little bit more the chart isn't as clean as some of those other patterns that we just looked at but we can highlight here a potentially impulsive move into the 78.16 and what looks at the moment to be corrective in terms of ABCs so it meets the criteria we haven't we haven't tested the equality objective and again we we want to watch for those setups because those tend to provide the best opportunities so we haven't quite so once if we hold 77.60s here and we get another leg down watch 76.48 as the equal legs versus this structure and set bullish what's the bullish reversal patterns there set long positions and certainly we can think about a retest of the prize here at the 80 level so where would this this is where would this be invalidated where would we start to be need to be starting to think about the short side but we'd have to take out 75 75 and if we did then what we'd be starting to think is well this is probably now impulsive and then what we'd look for would be to play that first correction there and take this into a new way five low and then we'd anticipate another three way before the next leg to the downside so the we've got some parameters here which would which would suggest that you know this pattern that I'm expecting to play out is invalid and that would be through 75 75 and if if we but if we do get the the bullish scenario here and we've completed the correction into this low then our next opportunity to short would be on a new high here through 78.50 sorry to get long we'd want to play the first corrective pullback in three waves to target then and move up into the wave three objective prior highs and we anticipate another correction before moving up into potential way five Kiwi cleaner pattern again like like the like to see how this plays out so again this and this is important process to be able to go through is one to be able to identify the impulse but then two to be able to think in terms of the corrective patterns and so technically the Kiwi could have completed its correction because we have this high this low this high and then this reaction low so that's sufficient for from a technical perspective for the correction to have completed where will we get confirmation of that well again we can only get confirmation on a new high and if we do get a new high that sets up the possibility of entering on the first three wave correction to play for certainly a retest of highs and probably on towards new highs so but whilst we hold 72.29 here and we're seeing a bit of congestion we can think about another corrected leg lower before a set before the next leg to the upside and where would that complete well if we hold if as we hold 72.29 we look for 70.59 back into the prior wave one high here as well so if that unfolds in three legs we want to watch for bullish reversal patterns here to set long positions same objective in terms of testing and taking out the prior highs again just a cleaner pattern easier to to visually grasp the structures there swissie so swissie again like the dollar index we have this clear decline subdividing into five waves we might have a new wave five low here and again what we're always watching for is this divergence so we I think we probably get some some divergence here into this potential wave five low let's another way of getting some target zones for that wave five is is overlaying the fibs here so at a minimum we expect the wave five to test the 127 extension to the downside of this prior corrected move so again let me just blow this up you can start to see who so it's clear you can see an abc structure there is it an equal legs let's have a look so yeah you can see we have an equal leg c and we're now looking like this could be an impulsive move to the downside to complete this wave five so here's the initial decline quick correction move there now we're in the wave three just wave three pause at 127 and we get another little correction to retest the prior lows before going to the ideal 161 extension and then setting up this pattern okay so that's what we're looking for there with the swissie the other the alternative scenario is we do a double from the lows here we make a double bottom but equally that just sets up the next trade to the downside so so again just waiting for these confirmations in terms of taking out these swing structures to let you know will give you a fair idea of what's to come and where the opportunity is to engage sterling yen I think sterling yen has the potential to have completed we can see this isn't looks impulsive it's not as clean as some of the other patterns but certainly you can think to yourself in terms of one two three four and five and now we're correcting so ideally what we'd like to see with this isn't just a straight move to the downside here so what we could anticipate is that we get an equal legs into so I want to pay attention to how to trade 150 72 bullish reversal patterns there and I think we can start to think about trading up to this 155 objective and the top side of what could be a broadening broadening top pattern there euro yen similar scenario here but euro yen has actually given us the completion of the correction so we've got a b equal leg c we went into the the target zone of the 31 20 to 30 90 we've got bullish reversal pattern so now we've got a potential wave for low in place and we look for a wave five here to develop so watch as as we extend here if we can get through let's see so if we can if we get up into this 78.6 take that out you can play a mini correction intraday to to get you in to play for the wave five extension to the upside because if this pattern is correct if this silo is correct then then we anticipate a move through 132 16 first pullback would set you up into the trade again the alternative scenario and we won't know just yet which one's going to play out would be that we have symmetry swing here that gives us this move so again we could be thinking in terms of a double correction symmetry swing versus that last leg so if we stall out here at 131 77 then we change our corrected target to the downside to give us this pattern which would have us back into 130 40 but still from there if if we get bullish reversal patterns then then we can expect our our load to be in place and we look for the move to play out like so so we just see if we get through this symmetry swing resistance then we can start to think about the first pullback to get long but if we stall out here then we've got a target zone where we'd be looking to to re-engage on the long side versus versus the double corrective pattern. As again not particularly clear here we're in a very complex correction but this is the type of pattern I would imagine plays out that we get a test into the top side and then we need to pull back to retest the trendline support here before we extend higher on the fifth wave. Cad Yen has been traded very well this was what Pat and I shared through the e-wave the tick mill e-wave videos we've got the ABC traded into the zone big bullish reversal first three wave pullback even I've just drawn this in for you so you can see how this thing works let's see we've got that ABC pullback and then we were in a or we had been in a wave three which I think we're we've seen the high of now we've seen wave three this can be this is our wave four low so now we're looking for a wave five so let's let's do the same thing and and get some target areas here and we can see significant divergence here so this is an opportunity on the short side let's uh to measure so this in the the initial way I measure for a wave five high is using the wave one because more often than not you'll get an equality swing to complete so we've got 89 77 let's bring in the third tool again and see where we get you can see so we've got that 161 extension there that's that's coalescing with the wave one equality objective so I paid very close attention to how we trade 89 66 89 76 bearish reversal patterns there and then we've got an opportunity to play the corrective move and more often than not what we're thinking initially is uh it's a 38.2 percent retracement and to retest to the wave four low so we can be looking back to uh to 88 44 on uh for the initial move and then more likely than not we correct that before we put in the equality objective to the downsize but certainly because we've taken out highs here in terms of this cad yen there's a great two-way trading opportunity here there's the opportunity to to fade this this next high for a for an interim wave five high to complete we've got bags of divergence down here so that supports this the potential for this trade and then there's the potential to play the correction to join the the higher degree trend which which is still to the upside in terms of the cad yen at the moment so this is how you can start to map out where the opportunity is in advance and then you're just waiting for the price action to confirm euro sterling so the euro sterling has completed or is potentially completing a correction I like to be long euro sterling through these highs at 87 20 targeting the equality objective versus this structure here so this this low uh equal at 88 33 uh would be the uh this target for that trade I'm just cognizant of the time here um let's take a look at copper copper's another one that looks like it's coming into its wave five high it's been on a tear but uh clearly we can see that we've got plenty of divergence down here we can uh look at the pattern here we can call that one two three four and we're looking for a five here so let's again same process let's uh let's do this so if that's going to be our four low then the um the upside objective I'll just get that second so the upside objective is uh 4.6535 and let's just bring in our foot tool and again we have that 161 extension just below the 200 percent extension so this is the target zone here for copper to get a pullback to complete uh this what would then be the third wave of the higher degree time frame because we've got this move off the low so then what we'll be thinking is in terms of um this scenario next so from this zone we'd then be looking for this move and you can start to see how the bigger wave pattern uh starts to develop last but not least uh let's take a look at the s and p for today s and p 500 so what we're looking at here is um if we can get a move today through uh the 4191 level this could be a wave five extension to the upside here this little mini correction there we look let's get back into the highs here pull back pull back and we've got a target or I've got a target at the moment uh to get up into 42 44 in terms of uh in terms of this leg which would which would complete the cycle um this being our wave four uh and this one second guys so this is our this is the the interim uh wave one but then what we anticipate is that we get uh we get a pullback something like this getting in that prior wave four test and then I think we get uh we get a significant extension again to the upside in this type of shape to complete a much bigger cycle before once again thinking in terms of uh in terms of the downside or corrective moves so you see how you can build this stuff out once you understand we'll have a relatively simple understanding really of the structures and how the patterns play into each other and play into the the different cycles on the different time frames so those uh those are some of the charts I'm watching paying really close attention to this cad yen and copper uh watch watch this s and p today if we can get through uh that key level at 4190 dollar index and euro also on the radar and that key we also is a very clean pattern wanted to uh see how that plays out in terms of the structure so you can see there how you can very quickly identify some relatively low uh low risk opportunities on these intraday charts using this this type of technical overlay and I hope uh have you found that useful are there any questions if you don't have a question uh it's helpful for me if you type an n in the chat box equally if you do have a question feel free to uh type it into the chat box sterling uh swiss let's take a look at sterling swiss yes I mean this this again with this sterling swiss I I was in this earlier in the week and got uh got stopped on uh on the pullback but what I again we we'd met we'd met the criteria um for a low to be in place on this new low so thinking in terms of uh the pattern so we have a this was sufficient the fact we made a new low was sufficient to uh to constitute completion cycle what I think we're looking at now is um it's probably something more like this so until we take out 12820 um 12820 on the upside the probability the bounce probability suggests when you take a look at 12370 first and then watch for bullish reversal patterns there because that uh that would then complete this this cycle and then we could start to uh start to think about the next leg to the upside but equally get through 12820 and um and as as long as you know we've got an impulsive setup there it could be that uh this is what we can start to think about okay if there aren't any other questions guys I'm going to wrap this session up here hope you found it useful and keep an eye on some of these these pairs that we've talked about and see if you can start overlaying the patterns yourself and again always looking for that price action confirmation for uh before jumping in uh Derek Euroyen Euroyen so here's where I'm at with the Euroyen Derek if we can get through 130175 then you can start to think about playing the first pullback as we've probably got our way for low in place but if if we can't get through this 130175 I'd anticipate we're probably going to do a double correction and and if that's the case your target zone where you can look to get uh look for bullish reversal patterns will be down to 130 39 area bullish reversal patterns there should be the the way for interim way for low in place and then you can start to think about a test up to uh 132 does that make sense Derek okay good stuff I am going to wrap this session up here and uh we'll reconvene at the same time next week thanks very much and have a great week