 Security personnel take over the APC secretariat as jostling for officers intentifies and pictures of Northern governors with associates of banditry, kingpin, torgy raises concern. Well, this is Plus Politics, I am Mary Anna Cohn. As the fighting for various positions in the all-progressive Congress APC gathers more momentum, there was tension yesterday at the National Secretariat of the Party where it witnessed a surge of police presence. Party sources stated that this was to forestall any breakdown of law and order following continued interplay of forces that led to the sheddling of the Convention for February the 26th. Meanwhile, the APC has denied zoning party officers who, while releasing the timetable for sheddled activities, this would be for the National Convention slated for February the 26th. Now, this happened on the day supporters of the presidential aspirant of Vice President Yemi Osibajo urged the President, Bahá'u'lláhari, not to allow looters hijacked, delegates to the APC National Convention. Well, joining us to break this down is Ladipo Johnson, his legal practitioner, and of course, Biodom Shomi, who is a political analyst. Thank you so much, Mr. Johnson, for joining us. Good evening. So there's a lot that's leading up to the Convention. We have heard stories of how Governors forstalled the hijacking of the Convention in itself. We've also seen where sudden Governors have said that, look, we're not going to allow this election, also be hijacked by sudden powers that be. But let's look at the situation. It seems like a confusion, but then there are politicians who will tell you that these are the things that happened just before National Convention. Yes, there's always some methodology to madness or what have you. It's the season. It's the beginning of the season. And I think things will only intensify before February 26th. The party probably had, there are many arms to the party, and there are many different groups, many interest groups, and a lot of them or some of them are aggrieved. And hence, you know, you've had, for months, you've had people calling for the Convention. People say no. In fact, recently we heard that they might even postpone it till July. So I think that's why you saw the police presence, because they know that people might try to take laws into their own hands and express their frustrations and what have you. It's natural in the African context, especially where you have some stronger individuals trying to clinch the ticket to the party for the presidential elections, because the zoning or lack thereof or the positions of the executive will determine a lot of things when it comes to the primaries. Well, talking about zoning, recently it made news that certain party offices had been zoned to different parts of the country. I just want to quote the spokesperson of the party, John Akinodeidege. He did outrightly say there was no such thing. And then he, of course, talked about a timetable that was scheduled for the activities of the Convention. He said the activities will begin receiving the interim report of the APC National Reconciliation Team, led by former governor of Nassau Estate, Abdulayah Damu, on January the 31st, which is coming. Let's talk about the reconciliation, which is a big deal. So far, the APC has continuously told us that they're reconciling aggrieved factions, but we keep seeing these issues, you know, creep up. Leader for Oshun Estate, Oshun is gearing up for elections and we're seeing a division within the party. We've also seen the same in Ogumu. I mean, there's literally no state that is not a group. Maybe the APC in Lagos is the only state that we have not. Even in Lagos. I'm just saying. I remember that you had different congresses. We had parallel congresses. But the APC keeps saying that they have reconciled most of these grieving or factions. And then February 26 is around the corner. Who's to say that there's going to be an agreement of sorts if the warring factions have not necessarily come to a table of agreement? Yes. If they haven't, then the party will do its best to bring them to a round table before the convention. The party hierarchy will try to use the weight of Mr. President to whip certain people into lying. But the President seems to be aloof in all of these things. The President has tactfully, if you ask me, stayed out of this. That's why I said the party will try to. They will try to because they might not otherwise be able to get a consensus arrangement. Because we've seen that it's as if there are so many interests fighting for the soul of the party. So what I see or foresee is that it's either going to implode after February 26, or they have to go the way of a consensus arrangement. And while some people will not be happy, they'll try to make amends and wave what we call the carrot and stick approach. So Mr. President and the leadership of the party have a lot of work to do within the next one month to make sure that they have a convention that is not just fair to most of the groups, but that is seen to be fair. It needs to because the country is watching and waiting to see what is happening. And if you want to rule, you have to show that you have internal democracy and what have you in your party. All right. Well, we're being joined by Bjorn Shulmi, who is a political analyst. Ms. Shulmi, thank you so much for joining us. Great. We'd like for you to chime in on this issue. We're looking at what's been happening leading up to the convention proper, which will be taking place February 26. Of course, the preparations begin from 20th, where delegates will be registered, et cetera, et cetera. Mr. Johnson here is saying that there are just two ways to go about this, that if there is no reconciliation, because we've heard over and over the Boone-led committee saying that they are having reconciliation within the factions across the country. We've also seen the re-registration exercise that happened on a large scale across the country. But then we still see that there is a fight within the party between the class of 1999 governors versus the governors of today and other powers that be. What does that leave the APC come to February 26? Can you hear me? Yes. Yes, I am. Okay. Now, we are in a very interesting time, next step for the APC. Mr. Shulmi, are you still there? I think we lost that connection briefly. Let me come back to you. Can the APC at this point afford an elective convention of sorts? Because there are so many pointers, now the National Assembly seems to be wanting to expunge the idea of a consensus, which might never, going forward, might not be an option in the party. So it's either you're going the indirect way or the direct way. But again, let's come back to the intricacies of what will happen. What do you suspect would happen, aside from the consensus, which has almost always been the way of the APC, where they all agree that this is the candidate of the day and that person takes the day. But then the APC of 2015, it's not the APC in 2022. The blueprint for 2015 was to kick Jonathan out of office and bring change, but that has changed. So what would be the consensus or the bringing together or the glue that would bring all of these warring factions together to move forward to the APC if they intend to win? The elections come 2023? Well, your guess is as good as mine. It's a difficult one. As Mr. Showme said, the contending forces at play, and this goes way beyond the APC. It goes to the issue of North and South and what have you. I do not know how they are going. You see, they have a problem. If it goes a particular way, then it is very easy for others to go the other way. So you're suggesting that the opposition and other parties are watching to see what the APC would do? Oh, yes, they are. But I spoke to the secretary of the Northern Elders Forum, and he did say succinctly that the North does not care where the candidate emerges from, but they're most interested in what that person has to offer. So they're saying we're laying sentiments aside. No, they're not saying that. So zoning is not necessary. In fact, they've been pushing that we just isn't zoning. When you hear that, exactly, you've answered the question. When you hear that, what is saying to you is that, hey, forget the issue of zoning. It's a good phrase and position to hold now. You hear people say, look, the state of the economy, the way we are now in Nigeria does not call for zoning. It calls for the best possible person or team wherever they may come from. And that is all well and good. Of course, it makes sense that we should look at that. But if you've been rotating, you understand, and then it now gets to a particular time where some people feel, oh, you should rotate back towards, then you say, no, we've never zoned officially. And it's the truth. It's never been done officially. It's not in the Constitution. You understand? It's always an understanding. And well, you get people from the APC saying that that was a PDP arrangement or the people from the PDP saying that was an APC arrangement. Let's look at the candidate. But you know something about Nigeria in a funny way, water will always find its level. How do you mean? How exactly do you mean? Water will find its level. You will see that even now, you're seeing aspirants going to so-called leaders or particular leaders who are not even affiliated officially to their party, right? Because we are still going to get, I don't want to call it an earthquake, but mark my words in the next two months or so, a lot of things are going to happen that will change politically. That will change the outlook of the average man towards 2023. So bottom line, it might not be what you're saying. Whatever happens on February 26th will determine who moves from party A to party B. There's going to be a lot of dancing. There are people in the PDP now who are unhappy, but are waiting to see what will happen from the APC convention to see whether they should gravitate towards the APC or whether something else, some other vehicle will be available. So the bottom line is that, and that is why the Boone-led team was or seemed to want to delay the convention. Because the later it comes, the more difficult it is for people to move left or right after the result of the convention. Those who feel they might be cheated at the convention are saying, let's have it now. Let's have it now so that their options can be open. This seems to be a case of a hot potato. I'm talking about the APC. Mr. Shoomi, thank you for joining us again. Apologies for the cutoff. Now, looking at the issue of zoning and who gets what, there are certain people, in fact, especially southern leaders, are insisting that no governor, no seating governor, be giving a position in the leadership. In other words, they're saying we do not want a Boone situation over again. What's your take on that? Well, it's most unlikely the seating of the chairman of the party. The reasons are very clear. We already know of the controversy that surrounded the Boone. And the fact that he got away with it, even the fact that the post, the Kyataka politicals, is not a permanent elective office. So therefore, the judgment is very clear. They are not likely going to go down that route. What the APC seems to be trying to set to is to default certain position. The chairman of the chairmanship of the party, they are indirectly defaulting into the north and also the presidential candidate. Once the chairmanship goes to the north, it is more likely than not that the presidential candidate will come from the south. Irrespective of those who are commenting that the north has no zone. The fact is, the essence of federal character principle in the Constitution is to ensure that everybody has sense of the long game and to avoid domination of the country by a section or complexion of the country. So therefore, when people argue that it's not in the Constitution, they need to read not only the letters of the Constitution, but also read the spirit of the Constitution. So that is the fact on the matter. So it is likely going to go south for presidential candidates and not for chairmanship of the party. I see that. And I don't think any governor will be a candidate. I mean, I see that because, I mean, at least so far, 11 persons have indicated interest. I'd just like to quickly call out their names. They formally declared interest in the party's apex. Six of them are governors, in fact, former governors. Tango, Almakura, Abdulaziz Yari, Alimodu Sherif has also indicated interest. Isa Yuguda, former governors of Nassar-Awa, Zamfar-Aborunu and Bauti states, respectively. Now, also in the race, we have Dandrum-Aguji, we have Georgia Kume, both former governors of Gombe and Benristit. Other aspirants are Sani Musa, Salih Mustafa, we have Sylvester Modinafe, Sani Shinkafi and the 36-year-old Etsu Mohamed. And if you notice that almost all of them come from a certain region. And it almost seems very deliberate that these are the only people who seem to have indicated interest in that seat. So it means that we can almost pre-empt or can we almost pre-empt where the presidential tickets will be zoned to. Yeah, what you see with all those, the candidates for former governors from the North coming out is basically part of the politicans within the ATC. The fact of the matter is, even in the South, there are people who are just playing, you know, for vice-presidency and who would rather have a no-tang of no-continue. But the position of these, something that our governors are very clear, that this post needs to come to the South. Even though the North fell, that should have been done through consultation and negotiation, rather than making a demand. What is most likely going to happen at the end of the day, you would end up having many of them stepping down, under the guise that they were stepping down for a consensus candidate. The fact of the matter is, the candidates to be challenged, as are today, remains Ashwa Jew, Wola Ame'i, Kinungu. Who is the national leader of the party? But you are likely going to continue to have this politicking going on. People modeling, politicians modeling, you know, the whole issue up. And at the end of the day, they will end up saying, well, there will be crises if we go for the reprimaries or inter-reprimaries. So we want to go for a consensus candidate. So this is part of the game that is going on currently. It depends on the other factions within the party, you know. It depends on their response and their strategy that will dictate whether those who are just in to ensure a consensus candidate succeed or not. And the position of the president in this matter is very important. I'm sure APC will not want a situation where the country is further polarized and the party polarized to the point of being critical. I don't think that is what we want. I think it will be mindful of the consequences of every step being taken. In everything that we've said tonight, the name Ballatinoville keeps coming up and he seems to be the strong man within the party. And of course, it makes me really wonder, what about the other people who have indicated interest and how much of a chance would those people stand? Don't forget, there are people who are justling for the vice president, who's also from the same region, with the party's national leader. What are the chances? I mean, we're not preempting anything, but I mean, we're looking at the body language. The likes of Oduz or Kalu has said that he's not desperate to... I mean, he somewhat changed his song and dance. He at first sounded more convinced that he would want to be the presidential candidate. But now he's saying he's not as desperate to lead the country, but he just is interested in the ticket. Is that for me? Yes. Oh, okay. Yeah, you have different interests, known faces and unknown faces coming up. You are likely going to have more candidates coming out from the south. But there are quite clear, for obvious reasons, you know, some wants to negotiate their own future in terms of what do they get at the end of the day and the only way to meet yourself through yourself out positively is to come out and challenge with a deal to negotiate a position for your present future. Also, in the south-west, there are also many candidates, including governors who are about to leave office, who are thinking about future beyond 2013, 2023. So they are also part of the people within the race. The likes of Al-Makura and some other governors, Wuni and all of them from the north, are reaching out to south-tank candidates with a deal to have a viable vice-presidency. But when you look at the whole event, it's quite likely that APC will not go for a south-tank presidential candidate. If they opt for a north-tank candidate and the PDT opt for a north-tank candidate, what does that vote for the country? We are already in a serious crisis in the country. People are challenging, you know, the nationhood, you know, and we will only be claiming to the hands of those who are helping on serve determination. Okay, well, on that note, I just, I've just been told that we're almost out of time. I wanted for you to quickly just give us your final thoughts. It looks like we'll have to just wait and see. Yeah, we have to wait and see. The key to it now is not those who have indicated or indicated that they want to contest. There are some who are there, even from the south, who will rely heavily on the majority of the party that is from the north or that are from the north. Do you understand what I'm saying? So they haven't played their hand yet. They haven't showed whatever. And I think that is one of the reasons why Ashuaju as a tactician probably felt, look, let me throw my heart in the ring. Let's see what will happen. Let's throw everything up there. Well, let's see who holds the Joker card at the end of the day. Well, if you want to show me as a political analyst, Ladipo Johnson is a lawyer. We'll still have Ladipo in the studio after this break. Thank you so much, Mr. Shoami, for speaking with us. Pleasure. All right. Well, thank you all for staying with us. We'll take a short break now. When we return, we'll discuss the illegal oil mining activities plaguing River State. We'll take a break and come back.