 Thank you for staying with us. Now we'll over to the hot topics and our first hot topic for today is Tinibu to present 2024 budget on Wednesday, which is tomorrow. We have with us Bwala Khan or Louis J.D. who's a public policy analyst. Good morning Mr. Bwala Khan. Yeah, good morning. Nice to be on the program. Thank you for joining us. Okay, so we have with Tinibu who's going to present the 2024 budget tomorrow. However, what are your impressions? I'm sure you've seen the figure. We're looking at 27, about 27 trillion. What are your impressions on this budget? Okay, on a general basis our budgets are too tiny, but I'm not so sure people have done better because for you to post a bigger budget, you need to have been able to work on the revenue. But within the field one that has been in the saddle, it may be too short to dramatically level the revenue to the kind of levels we would have loved to see. At 27.5 trillion Naira, which is barely about 37 billion dollars, we're just about 20% of South Africa's budget. And considering the fact that we are 200 million people while South Africa is just 60 million, you can see how poetry our budget is. However, if we're dedicated to it and we execute with the right level of discipline, we might be able to begin to stabilize the economy and maybe pull us out eventually out of the economic quagmire over the next few years. Okay, so do you think we'll be making revenues for this to be able to have more in our economy? I didn't hear what you said about the revenue. Do you think we'll be able to make more revenue like with this budget? Because some people are calling it unambitious. And so while revenue generating budgets that we say in quotes, would we be able to make that? It's challenging, but we have to shoot for it. We have to at least aim high and work at it. The beauty of the Nigerian economy is the fact that the potential for doing well, as far as revenue is concerned, is there. So it's a matter of how much work we're willing to put in to make those assets that we have. You know, we say we have the largest GDP in Africa. How come? I mean, this is a fundamental question which just asks, how come that with the largest GDP in Africa, we are only able to generate 20% of what South Africa, which is a smaller economy is generated for the Pera Gom, a point of Pera Gom outcome. So it means that we're not sweating the asset called Nigeria. We're not sweating that GDP to the level or the right way, the appropriate way to sweat it to make it generate what we want it to generate. So that is a challenge right there. The opportunity is there. The economy has that capacity. We only need to drive it to make it fix all the distortions around there, get a bit more distance, and it is possible. The revenue is possible. And I believe that if we set our mind to it, not only is that revenue possible, but it is possible over the years, say the next 34 years to be able to do like three times what we're looking at on that budget. Okay, let's look at the parameters on which this budget was even prepared. We have a deficit of 9 trillion Naira, and the revenue projected is 18 trillion Naira. But we also have oil production per day at 1.8 million barrels per day, 77 Naira of $77 for oil per barrel, and then exchange rate 750 per dollar. Then we also have inflation, 21.4 percent, and economic growth at 3.6 percent. Let's look at these specifics. How realizable are these parameters that we've set our budget on? Quite, quite challenging, but not on some level. For example, if you take the inflation figure of 21 percent, inflation is currently at 27.3 there, I believe. And bookmakers are saying that the inflation figure may actually climb as high as 30 percent by the end of the year. So the question is, what is the basis for thinking that we can get 21 percent inflation rate in the budget here in 2024? What has started to happen is that the rate of increase of inflation is slowing down. Yes, it is still increasing, but it is now increasing at a slower rate, which means that if we do the right things and sustain it, we can actually at some point flip that increase, first of all, to a plateau and then begin to have declines. What can we do to get to all those things? A very good example of what I call a low-mage input is in the food side of things. See, anytime you break down our inflation figure, you see that the food inflation is a huge component, is a major driver of the composite number. What that says is that if we can deal with food matters, we can moderate the composite inflation figure that we currently have. That is essentially the message that those numbers are passing through. So the next question then is, can we do something about food? And I believe we can. We have the land, we have the water, and we have all it takes to produce more in this country. The government, for example, had mentioned, oh, we're going to cultivate 500,000 more hectares of land. And my question is, when are we going to start? If in July, when government said that we have put corn in the ground, by now the corn has matured and set the market. So it is in the place of beginning to implement that we can begin to see changes that could deliver 2024 the way we are projected. If we don't put in the work, it will just be a bogus set of not, if we don't put in the works and we will not be able to get to where we ought to get. That is the reality. 750 Naira exchange rates, we are not quite there, but is it possible to get there? The answer is yes. So what are those market distortions that we need to deal with? What are the supply issues that we can master at this level? Because some of the supply issues for corn and corn are a bit on the fiscal side and they will take some time to be able to get there. But what are those ones that we can begin to deal with in the immediate? Those are the focus for 2024. So for me, it is challenging, it is quite ambitious, but it is not on some of them. Yeah, well, you know, we also have the production capacity of Nigeria. It was only in September that it rose to 1.3 million barrels per day. And this one is pegged at more than that, 1.8 million barrels per day. And like Romer said, it is ambitious and a lot of people have said it is ambitious. How do we plan to even get to 1.5 million barrels per day, let alone the 1.8 that is being pegged at? Yeah, typically, when you're putting together budget numbers and you are, you know, coming up with this assumption, it is believed that you already have an idea of where those things are going to come in from. Are there certain wells that have been shot in for certain period that are coming on stream right now? Are there certain difficulties we have faced in the past? For example, issues around oil theft that we are now overcoming. Let's be frank, this country had once produced 2.5 million barrels per day. So what that says to me is that it is not an impossibility. We just must be asking ourselves those particular questions. If you have produced 2.5 million barrels, how did you get to 1.5 million? And what can you begin to do to rev up those production? Those oil that were disappearing in the pipelines, those things that we could have driven with technology that we are not driving, those engagement at the community levels where all these oil are disappearing, the involvement of possible complicity at the level of some security agencies, all those things together are things we can look at and begin to see how we can take this nation back to its 2.5 million barrels per day. But unless we are saying that the projects are people, I have not considered all those things and they are just making predictions. Okay, let's just put one point. If that is what we have done in this project, then we are just joking and we will not even move near people. But as a person, have you seen any signs that it is possible that there are things that have been put in place to realize the exchange rate, the capacity, the production capacity of oil and to curb the inflation rate so that we can realize what about ambition we have in that budget? Have you seen any sign as a person? Okay, for the foreign exchange rates, before listening to issues around scouting around or trying to get supply, so there is the issue of this $1 billion which is part of this particular budget. There are discussions around another $3 billion. There is the issue of secretization of NLNG dividends which is also meant to produce $10. So if you now take that and you situate it beside the recent pronouncement by the CBN governor at the CIBN, about discipline, about transparency, about working with the fiscal side of the economy, it appears as if there are efforts in the works. So we have to open our mind and watch that space and see how that is translated to substance. As it is today, many of those things are still in the policy realm but making them to manifest for us, we involve a lot of work and we are counting on CBN to make that happen. On oil production, we've seen oil production went as far as 931,000 barrels, as low as that. That was, I believe, September 2022. But today that same oil that was 931,000 barrels has gone up to 1.2 million barrels. So something obviously is going on. I believe that the rate at which we are improving is a bit too slow. I would have loved to see something faster but there is no doubt that we are beginning to grow the product. We need to sustain it and whatever impediment that is still left in that space to deal with, to take it from that 1.2, 1.3 and rev it up to 1.5 and possibly even further, we need to continue to put efforts in it. But for now, like you rightly said, it remains very ambitious that we will get there, we depend on the works that we are willing to put in and ready to put in and the political will to make it happen. Is it cementable? My opinion could be all the challenges are cementable. Okay, so I know you talked about food production earlier. However, some people can argue that we have food production to a certain level. But the reason for the inflation rate is other factors such as transportation power because these farmers, they need certain things, certain machinery as well. And they have to transport these food items from wherever their farm is to the cities where they're being sold. So don't you think there should be some things that are being done for them to enable these farmers to be able to sell at a cheaper rate? And then we, the citizens, can also afford these things and the inflation rates can come down a little bit. Yes, you're right on the money right there. The interesting thing is that it is not a safe government itself. It's not aware by virtue of some things it has said. I remember that in that July speech, government was talking about rural roads as part of the infrastructure reform that we need in the economy. What does rural roads, what do they do? They connect the center of production to the market. So when food are produced, where they are produced, they can be, where they are not produced on a marina or in maybe in very land or in some places that are remote, they need to be moved to the market. But where the connection between these two centers is not smooth, then we have a problem. So that is where the rural infrastructure comes in. It would be nice to be able to dig deep into the budget to see how government to address issues of rural roads in the current budget because a lot of farm produced in the midst of what we are talking about gets rotten. In certain product categories, it is as high as 40% of the entire thing that the farmers produce gets bad because there are no ways to move them to the centers of consumption or there are storage facility problems. All those things are there. So if we look in the budget today, are we going to be able to see spending or initiatives in that direction? Or is the government going to drive the private sector to lead in this initiative? And how? Those are very important. Otherwise, we will not be able to kill because the food matter for security is number one. Then what you have just mentioned now is critical. Without that proper connection to the consumption center, we will still be hungry in this country. Yes. As the president presents the budget tomorrow, the Federal Executive Council, on the other hand, has approved 1 billion Naira loan. And we're wondering, a government that said that they will not borrow at all is now mulling the idea of 1 billion Naira loan. And we're just wondering how we'll fare next year. Well, I don't think the issue of not borrowing at all is a realistic comment considering where we are. We will borrow, but we will have to borrow with decency, with the realization that we are already in a huge hole. And when you're in a hole, at least the first thing you should do is to stop digging. But under the current circumstances, there will still be need for certain borrowings. The discipline that must follow that borrowing, the kind of borrowing it has to be, heavy concessionary loans. And what we will put the loan to, how are we going to use it, is much more important. So I do not foresee an explanation that we do not borrow. We should cut down on our borrowing. We should be disciplined about whatever we borrow. But to say we will not borrow is unrealistic from a finance perspective, considering where we are right now. Okay. I think that's where we'll have to drop it this morning. We'd like to thank you, Bolaahom, for coming on the show and sharing your thoughts with us. We wish you're happy. Thank you. Have a lovely day, sir. All right. We'll go on a quick break. And when we return, we'll be looking at our next hot topic. Please stay with us. Thank you so much, sir. He just logged out. This one that I'm just putting germs in my ear and it's not working. Germs? Oh, did you talk back? What's the point when it's not working? Did I initiate you into the stretching club? I'm stretching because I'm not used to sitting like this. I'm used to being relaxed. You're relaxed? No. When I want to relax and like this, I'm tired of saying that. I'm so happy to be relaxed. I had to relax on myself. Hello. Good morning. Good morning. Good morning. 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