 All right, we let's get started, please Well, this is something that I would like to show a little bit later Which is an important thing actually We were talking about the situation in Iraq The war I mean that follow the invasion of Iraq That was a short lived war well, not too many casualties and Iraq was Put under sanctions with the resolution 687 and that was a ceasefire agreement. Remember these are all Issues that we have covered over the past Tuesday and also the previous Friday last week What was significant from our perspective was paragraph 33 of 687 which ticked there that there was a ceasefire I explained the Significance of ceasefire the meaning of sickness ceasefire and that the ceasefire was conditional upon the proper implementation of the provisions prior to Article of sorry paragraph 33 meaning all of them 32 of them But more specifically paragraphs 8 9 and 10 which made specific references to the Destruction removal or rendering harmless of chemical and biological weapons As well as material that are used in their production and ballistic missiles having ranges about 150 Kilometers and also the nuclear infrastructure had to be destroyed or rendered harmless This task was given to the IAA and I try to explain to you that IAA did this job Completed the mandate without much difficulty There were basically a couple of reasons they were fast and they were not that many Nuclear sites that they would have to deal with when compared to chemical and biological And after all it is very difficult to hide some nuclear material because they emit radiation and also To hide nuclear facilities because they are usually big and most people had Prior knowledge about their whereabouts. I mean as to where they were Located so the IAA also got Significant cooperation and these were the years when the Iraqi authorities did not drag their feet and they were cooperating with With the International Atomic Energy Agency so but on that hand remember United Nations Special Commission ASCOM was created and ASCOM of course with cooperation getting that they got from the Iraqi authorities escort as well as protection and Specific information about the locations of facilities and the material and the weapons as well as ballistic missiles so for several years they have done their job properly without much difficulty, but in due course remember a number of inspectors and more specifically Scott Ritter is He himself actually maybe I Don't know for what reason Declare that he received information intelligence from several sources And that was found to be unacceptable by the Iraqis and Saddam Hussein first tried to put a put an end to these inspections in 96 and but he was confronted with the US Desert Fox operation which persuaded convince Saddam Hussein that he should continue Allowing the inspectors do their job, but finally after the second round. He said okay I'm withdrawing the escorts the the people who protect as well as guide the Inspectors and when once they are withdrawn the United Nations secret their general had no other choice But to withdraw them and therefore when we come to the end of 1998 Inspections were stalled. I mean there were no inspectors starting from December 1998 no inspections anymore and Well, that was partly because There was no Escorts for the inspectors and and because of the withdrawal of them, but the International community was pretty much concerned from I mean starting from April 1991 so there is this Almost nine years. I mean Sorry as seven and a half years so almost eight years of Inspections and as I said here last time there were many people who lost their lives, especially women children Because they couldn't have access to food medication things that were necessary for the Survival of the large population who were under a lot of pressure anyway even before the war during the war and after the war so During all these years there were these inspections and hundreds of Kilograms or tons of some chemical materials or weapons Ballistic missiles a number of them biological agents large stocks of them were destroyed or rendered harmless so that was the period which Actually witnessed a significant operation of al scum and there were hunt maybe a couple of hundreds of people who were involved in the Inspection processes inspectors from around the world have joined on scum, but One thing There was not a single if I'm not mistaken and actually that this is something that I had confirmed with Rolf Achos Who was the head of the on scum at the beginning? This guy, but that's when we met just last year in December last year But I had a pride meeting with him when he came to Monterey Institute when I was a postdoctoral fellow at the Institute in California and I asked him indeed kind of Ask me in a very tough manner as to why on scum didn't have any Turkish inspectors Because that will be great opportunity for Turkish people experts to Know first and information about the situation on the ground. He actually said don't ask me Ask your Turkish authorities as to why they have not accepted sending one Well as far as I understand there was some sort of a tacit understanding between the parties Turkey and the United States maybe another maybe the Iraqis at some point To not send Turkish inspectors to any of the house commissions but it would have been great if Turkish inspectors were involved or were among the On scum inspectors who were going every place every location to get intelligence about the Iraqis and weapons infrastructure and other information, but According to Rolf Achos, I don't know where the Turkish authorities really got this offer and denied or declined to Send anyone, but that was what he said back in 96 or 97. I can't remember exactly when so And by the way on scum inspectors were using state-of-the-art technology, I mean Another gain from such inspections for the inspectors themselves would be to have access to new technologies as to what kind of technology were being used for detecting Some hidden material such as a biological agents chemical agents as well as nuclear material for instance During a chat when I gave a lecture to the students of Monterey Institute about something and as I mentioned last time Tim McCarty a friend of mine from the Institute, but part of the on scum inspections and he was an inspector and One guy asked one of the students asked well We are selling weapons to the world and these weapons can be used to against our soldiers in the future So I mean is this fair? Why are we doing this? Why are we selling to a number of countries? Which in the future may become? in a hostile to us and Actually, I said something that I kind of knew from my readings for my discussions with experts that that producers of sophisticated weapons systems were Implanting let's say a number of softwares in the weapons such as missiles Or other electronic equipment that could be used in future contingencies And if for instance a missile is launched against your soldiers for us or against targets that belong to you Then by activating that software that missile might be just deviating from its Trajectory or hit somewhere else or me just destroy itself and that same would be applicable to aircraft and Just not only missiles or anything that would operate with electronic equipment So that was something that I had in kind of way acknowledge not specifically or not nothing much about the specifics but at least by using our of course logic and intellect and Bits of information you can understand that weapons producers could do something like that and that's inspector friend of mine Confirm what I said and said don't worry guys in every single weapon system that we sell to the world. There are such Systems there are such softwares that we can make them not usable against us in the future So therefore it is very very important to know what kind of technology are being developed and what kind of Weapon systems are being developed if if you are responsible for weapons acquisition and There was this discussion this debate also in in Turkey about Turkey designed to buy some weapons systems or or develop or produce the new new set of F-16s, but to Develop the software in Turkey by Turkish specialists because Turkey did not have much trust about the Reliable of the software that could be that could make these F-16s for instance in the future Unusable by giving this opportunity to the other side Whomever that might be to sort of manipulate with the navigation system interfere with it, etc So another thing that I again learn from just a bit of information was that no matter what you do to crush That the the computers physically even if you just I don't know Burn it or just use any worst of worst of viruses and Infect it and make it unusable for normal people like us, but there were some Again so far is that could be retrieved that could get the information every single Information that were inserted to that token could be retrieved could be recovered. So that's how for instance information about Iraqi biological weapons program Was somehow unearthed from the hardware or hard hard drives of Some of the computers which were just put in dumped somewhere in the in the in the waste and somehow they Retrieves that they recover the information in their hard drives and use them as a proof of Iraqi weapons Involvement or just involving in biological weapons in the past. So that's how Iraq was put under pressure to sign the biological weapons Conversion so what I'm trying to say here is Oscombe inspections have gained a lot of experience To the inspectors and thereby to their intelligence services and to their country Almost every single inspector from X and Y countries Once they span a term in Iraq. They were going back to their countries. They were being debriefed by their intelligence services secret services and then Put back to their job So therefore that will that would be a great opportunity for Turkish inspectors if they were sent to unscommed or unmovic in the future If they could operate in Iraq with other inspectors and not only that you go to the field Get information from first-hand and but also you discuss with other inspectors as to what they know So I don't know why Turkey missed that opportunity. Well Maybe we had a lot of confidence that we did not did that kind of intelligence or information anyway, so Then let's going back to the story here from in December 98 As I said one reason was that the withdrawal of escorts Left the UN Secretary General with no other option but to be through the inspectors without if he did not withdrawn him these people Then their lives will be in danger and that would be unacceptable of course so but again a Year later remember UN Security Council Resolution 1284 you have all this on websites and That resolution 17th of December This resolution said taken into consideration that for exactly one year There were no inspections in Iraq because In December 98 the last inspectors have left the country and in January 99 Richard Butler presented his report to the Yes, the one in the middle here and And he presented his report to the UN Security Council, which was adopted unanimously and That report well long one as I mentioned Maybe not directly specifically but hinted at the possibility of some chemical weapons and biological agents maybe remaining In the Iraqi territory because he could not ensure that all of the weapons were somehow Destroyed removed or rendered harmless because I mean they were not getting enough cooperation from the Iraqi authorities so Considering the situation in Iraq that there were no inspections and After inspectors having left the territory the UN Security Council resolution 687 mandate was not yet fulfilled oops 687 the mandate was not fulfilled I mean the the inspectors could not present a report to the UN Security Council Saying that we have done our job. We have finished the task. There is not a single Gram of chemical agent that could be weaponized or not not even a weapon or no biological agents no missiles So we can go home. There was no such a report on the contrary the report submitted by Richard Butler presented to the UN Security Council Suggested that some material weapons or material that could be weaponized might have remained there. So with this psyche and Time having passed already The United Nations Security Council had to you know take some decisions in order to pursue its own Decisions prior decisions like 687 but that year was significant because if I'm not mistaken It was in March or April NATO summit took place in Washington DC and the the heads of states of NATO allies had to adopt a strategic concept document that would shed light to the future implementation of some of the NATO strategy and you know force deployments and and contingency plans so that was Again January a sort March or April 99. There was also this course of operation by NATO Therefore the world's attention was shifted from Iraq to the Balkans But yet again toward the end of the year 1999 United Nations Security Council had to take a decision which after all was 1284 and remember with this decision Suggested to Saddam Hussein to Allow the new inspectors the United Nations monitoring verification Commission inspection Commission and Saying that al-skum was abolished because of its corruption et cetera et cetera and that a new body of inspections inspectors was created and That if and when inspectors resumed. I mean started again then the United Nations would Suspend The bulk of sanctions measure items in these sanctions that were imposed upon Iraq. They would Suspend them and that they would allow Iraqi to buy some foods medication other stuff that they would need So long as on Movic operated on the field on Movic of course Again what was would still be a body of inspectors But never had a chance to go there in all these years until November 2002 that was After the September 11 attacks when of course the world just was shocked with what happened on that day attacks on Twin Towers of World Trade Center and the Pentagon et cetera and Of course first Afghanistan But then eventually United States turns turn its face to Iraq and I was kind of expecting this because there was this 687 ceasefire resolution and while the If not the rest of the world, but most people in the world We're discussing as to whether The US president now George W. Bush would have any legal sort of Backup for for Supporting it's his argument that Iraq, you know should again come under fire unless they cooperate it Most people didn't think that that was or maybe forgotten that there was a ceasefire resolution And once you forget the existence of ceasefire resolution, then of course you can also forget or not cannot anticipate What might come after that and ceasefire resolution was always as I always said interim solution Subject to certain conditions and if conditions are not met by one of the parties the other party might just make this a case and declare to the other party that you know unless you comply with the conditions and And do whatever it is necessary, then I will resume fire again So I could see that the United States President would make reference to the ceasefire resolution at some point saying that Iraq has not Allow us to fill fill the job So they have violated the ceasefire and after all they had all this this and that thing that they have done illegally So now we have the right to resume fire Finally, of course that was something that happened in March 2003 a year or just several months later But in November, of course after 9 11 Iraq found itself under heavy pressure and under the pressure and After long deliberations at the United Nations finally Saddam Hussein accepted the entry of al-Movic to the Iraqi territory with some conditions and Hans Blix Was the person who was this guy? Who was in charge of sorry for that Who was in charge of The proper implementation of unmovic inspections. Well The head of unmovic Hans Blix and head of IAA Muhammad El-Baraday actually they both Appear before the United Nations Security Council and they Sort of presented their reports about the situation in Iraq the problem with al-Movic was kind of intriguing Because on the one hand from December 98 till November 2002 there were no inspections in Iraq So almost four years or to be exact 47 months No single inspector put his or her food on the Iraqi territory in between this period December 98 November 2002, but in the meantime there is this spotter support Which implies if not directly? Says that there might be some chemical weapons and ballistic missiles and biological agents Because well Actually since they have not been able to make sure that they have completed their job I'm just and that they have destroyed every single amount of a weapon or material that could be weaponized so his report implied that and What would be the normal course of action for the new inspectors once they are In Iraq now would be to ask the Iraqi authorities. All right guys I mean for the last four years there has been no single inspection here so now we have come here to finish the job and Please bring a Bring to us whatever chemical biological agent you may have or just policy missile you may have and let let us destroy them So that we pave the way to a peace treaty. I mean that will be normal course of action if Ascom had been able to finish the job before being sort of forced to go out But the Iraqi authorities reply was you know what? There is no weapon chemical weapons or biological weapons or ballistic missiles left We have destroyed ourselves. Whatever might have been left the al-scum Unmovic of course would have no objection to that provided that that could a certain a certain this situation I mean that could sort of You know provide assurances to the world first for themselves and for the for the rest of the world that Iraqis have themselves destroyed this material or ballistic missiles whatever But the point was Even though the Iraqis claim that there was not even a single ballistic missile left or Or the chemical biological weapons Left in the country They could not provide enough Sort of Information to verify their position. I mean that that was not even a ballistic missile. I mean they have gone They have taken the inspectors on moving inspectors to certain sites where they claim to have destroyed the remaining material and these inspectors have taken samples from water soil air in order to see if there was any evidence that you know would Suggest that there was a certain amount of chemical material dumped there and destroyed or they have said okay We have destroyed his missiles over this hill for instance, and they have checked the satellite pictures and They have not seen any single activity going on during the period that they the Iraqis claimed to have destroyed his missiles themselves so the problem was on Moewek was unable to Underwrite or to a certain to to sort of a Support with evidence what the Iraqis said that they were that they had themselves destroyed the remaining Material weapons and that there was no weapon remained Well, it is very difficult to Provide enough evidence about that that there is something is missing So long as you can't find something It is missing or that might also suggest it doesn't exist. The problem is that Well, I mean on Moewek could not find anything Is it because there was nothing to find or is it because these whatever material was left Was somehow well hidden well somewhere or just you know taken away to another country maybe so that was a problem that really tackled the minds of Many people and on Moewek because it was unable to present evidence about Either way about the situation was of course has come on the fire on the criticism And this is this problem about lies about Iraqi weapons of mass destruction capability Eventually politicians also have admitted that well, they may not have told the truth Because of lack of information or because of lack of enough information that could not be provided by their subordinates I mean people working under them some Secretary of Defense Secretary of State in the United States President himself Acknowledged after so many years that they may have done something wrong about their allegations, but the problem here is on Moewek could not Find or destroy anything was it because there was nothing to find and destroy or was it because Whatever might have been left according to Butler's report may have been hidden somewhere or taken away from the Iraqi territory That was the question so We have seen interesting reports interesting publications articles books one of which was by Richard Butler remember the the guy whom you've seen the picture a former Marine who had done a lot of job for the On disclosure of some of the Iraqis Capabilities all this guy because of heavy criticism Because of his involvement in some of the illicit let's say or are ethical Issues with the Intelligent services here is art and I would like to bring to your attention several Sentences from his resignation letter 26 August 1998 in December 98, you know You're inspectors where we throw he writes letter to Richard Butler and Who was the Anscum? director of Anscum He explains the reason why he Resigned here this paragraph is significant. It says the special commission was created for the purpose of disarming Iraq As part of the special commission theme I have worked to achieve a simple end the removal destruction or rendering karmas of Iraq's prescribed weapons The sad truth is that Iraq today in August 98 Iraq today is not disarmed Anywhere near the level required by a security council resolutions As you know Ascom has good reason to believe that there are significant numbers of prescribed weapons and related components and The means to manufacture such weapons unaccounted for in Iraq today so the leading inspector The most heroic figure among the inspectors who has done great deal in unearthing Iraq's clandestine capabilities Because of this controversy because of this row between himself and those who you know criticize him he Resignated he quit in August 98 and he says Iraq is not even close to disarming There are still significant amount of weapons material whatever in August 98 Which was followed by the withdrawal of a few months later Of the inspectors and from that point onward to November 2002 no inspections no inspectors so this Scott reader Who writes and who has the sort of first-time forms person to be able to report from the field About the true situation in his resignation letter says Iraq still has weapons a lot of them and until November 2002 for The eighth or so months no inspections and once as comic Unmovic and sorry Goes to Iraq Iraq. He's saying well. We don't have weapons Well, whatever might have been left. We may have destroyed here. What where we dumped the chemical weapons Well, no no trace No evidence here where we have destroyed ballistic missiles no evidence. So I'm moving was unable to Support the Iraqis claim that they had destroyed these weapons themselves But on the on the other hand I'm moving could not find anything Well, sometimes you may not find anything on provided that they are very well hidden So almost there is something to find if if taken away or very well hidden somewhere you cannot find it so by the way I'm moving its mandate was not to Find certain thing but was to verify that Iraqis if they have done so destroy themselves in United Nations monitoring verification inspection commission could not Sort of verify could not support that Iraqis have done this themselves and there is this resignation letter Saying that Iraq still has weapons and after that letter the inspectors were withdrawn never come back until 48 months later and Once they come back. There is no weapons around Does this mean that Iraq never had these weapons anymore? That was a problem. Of course, everybody made different types of claims, but what was the most striking was? Scott reader who wrote this resignation letter Who said in his letter that there was still it was not disarmed that there was still a significant amount of weapons? He said all was lie Iraq never had such weapons and We lied to the world and he Published books might have made several millions of dollars so far well good for him But he confused the minds of many people That is actually something that is not understandable at least from my perspective because a heroic figure like the him someone who helped with the Inspections which were carried out under very difficult conditions and he was quite significant in finding many of the Caches many of the hidden material, but later on and having written such a resignation letter says Well, actually Iraq had never had such weapons It is not that easy for someone like me who's candy Almost on a daily basis the situation evolving Iraq from day one and Having either in the in due course Had the chance to talk with other people who were involved in inspection inspections and with the heads of inspecting teams I Had myself my reasons to believe that some material may really have been left in the Iraqi territory, but the problem was Well, if you cannot find it, they did that they doesn't exist. Is this the principle? I don't know maybe it shouldn't be and the problem was of course Not only within the context of Iraq's sort of position with the UN Security Council resolution, but Also, we I mean being in Turkey here We should also be concerned because if there were some chemical weapons and or biological weapons and or ballistic missiles left left in Iraq after the withdrawal of the inspectors in December 98 and Somehow hidden somewhere in the Iraqi territory or in neighboring countries Well, the probability of these material being recovered by Other groups militia groups or other countries and that could be used against our soldiers Who how do you know that this is not going to happen? So that was a major concern and therefore? I think the author is in Turkey and elsewhere had to be more concerned about What exactly was the truth was the reality here? So this is something that you have to bear in mind that you know when you Hear something or again by way of research or anything writing a paper if you are interested in the subject you will of course come across with many statements made by the United States Secretary of State Who was at some point calling Powell former general? Also U.S. President himself George W. Bush in on different occasions in different four out They said well some of the information about Iraq may not have been correct So you cannot fool the minds of people by just manipulating the information like this and there are certain if not evidence because Some people with respect to Scott readers resignation letter when I said look he says that today all was lie and that there is no such weapon and that he sort of Took on the U.S. government U.S. administration Bush administration for creating the The ground or preparing the ground for attack on Iraq But on the other hand he has this resignation letter in which he admits that there are still weapons and some people said Well, he was under a different psyche. He was under different psychological, you know pressure and etc Therefore his resignation letter may not make sense. I don't know. I mean, this is not such an easy or simple thing, but I Tend to believe what Scott reader has written in his resignation letter was true And if that was true because he was the person who was in a position to see the things from the very first hand on the ground and if that was true, where have these weapons gone? Well, some weapons especially chemical weapons May lose their significance in due course over a certain period of time like I mean six seven eight ten Whatever years they may may become useless. They don't you don't have to sort of destroy them even because you know their composition may somehow be Affected by time and corrosion or the you know climatic conditions unless they kept under certain pressure and Temperature they may become useless after a while. That's fine But still material in these weapons may have some toxic effects or How do you know maybe they did their? Life cycle might be longer than many people might expect the problem here is if that letter represented the truth as well as this report I Mean letter in August 98 and report in January 99 both of which one of which explicitly states that there are still weapons and the other one implies that there might be weapons and the United Nations Security Council sort of adopts this report of Butler anonymously and then there is this Time passing I'm a bit going to Iraq and no weapons are found and people say well. There was no weapon at all This is not that easy and a much more Significant research must have been carried out and at least Maybe Turkey must have pressurized on something to happen because this is something that can directly affect the Security of our people as well as our security forces Afro because this is a country just nearby and there are there is still not The state of Stable political conditions do not still exist in Iraq and this being the situation we should be concerned about militia groups or other groups in Iraq having access to the you know Places where these weapons may still have been stored even if Their metri use may have somehow be badly affected because of the conditions where they they were kept and time Which has passed so far. So this is something that I just wanted to emphasize here today that You have to be quite I Don't know on alert positions when such things happen and you have to be part of it Had Turkey sent a number of inspectors to this pool of inspectors Primarily on school I hear something like you know Turkey would have sent a Few inspectors to Unmovic But even if Turkey did so I'm moving could not operate could not you know Get a large large amount of Intelligence from the field, but for so many years for approximately eight years alchemy inspectors have Collected large piles of intelligence reports for their own country's intelligence services many of them some of them I know were pure scientists and Declined to be the brief once they sent back or once they were returned back to their homes some scientists said Some of whom I had conversations who Said they did not accept to be debriefed by their intelligence services because they did not find this ethical Well, that's that's an approach, but after all that will be a huge Service of the country if Turkey had sent inspectors to on scum, which was Unfortunate not the case, but not because of on scum We did not accept no there was no offer actually they offered Turkey to send inspectors, but Turkey declined And that is something that one has to think about it. All right We'll continue on Tuesday There will be class on Tuesday and the coming Friday so no on Friday next week no class because it's 29th of October the Republic Day, but on Tuesday 26 will be here and I'll see you on Tuesday. Thank you for coming