 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The Morning, Markets Kickoff with your host, Tommy O'Brien. Good Friday morning, everybody. I'm Tommy O'Brien, coming to you live from TFNN. Just after 9 a.m. Eastern time, we got about 24 minutes to go until the start of trading and you got markets in positive territory. This could be the seventh straight day. You're talking about higher prices, man. Across the board, right now you get the S&P up by 10 points at 44.81. Let's put it back to a 10-minute chart and point you back it up, right? Just a week ago, we're at 42.75. We're talking about 200 points, basically. 200 points in the S&P, just in the last week alone as you were coming into a Fed week. 44.81 this morning, yesterday's high, 44.85. So bumping up against that price level. NASDAQ 100, also just under the highs we made yesterday. We just peaked above that level. 15,426, you're up by about a third of a percent. The Dow up by a tenth of a percent. Up 37 points at 34,761 and you got the Russell up by one this morning. Crude catching a bid $71.40. Interesting as crude from Monday's low, 66.80, right? We're at 71.38. I'll give you one of the headlines that I'll be talking about. Are we gonna get a slight reversal? Gas prices ease for summer driving season and yeah, we're sitting at $71, man. You want some context? Check out that chart. You're back crude up for the better part of three years. You're talking about going back to basically two years ago and we are at the lows that we've seen over the last two years. Yeah, we were at some crazy prices coming out of COVID in the year 2020, et cetera. But nonetheless, the last couple of years, man, we're at low prices, let alone a year ago when crude was hovering above $100. We'll see how that goes though, crude. Up by 50 cents back above $71 this morning. We jump over to the gold contract up by $5 at 1975. We were up at 1980 last night. Boy, you talk about some action in the dollar yesterday, right? We had the ECB meeting. The dollar, we almost got a 101 handle from a 103.20 to start the day yesterday, man. You traded down a full point and then some in the dollar this morning. I guess you could say we're slightly positive. You're up by what, seven basis, seven ticks, seven pennies at 102.19 right now in the dollar. But boy, the market really listening in terms of you jump over to the 10-year, look at that acceleration, 112.16 up to 113.16. So you had the 10-year yesterday. It just didn't stop, man. Those are 10-minute bars from 8.30 in the morning until, yeah, 10.40. It was a one-way trip for a full point in the 10-year. So you jump over to the dollar index, zoom in on the action just yesterday and pretty similar action from eight o'clock and even the dollar didn't stop until two. How about that, right? Dollar just kept going, man. Dollar weakness, you got higher, excuse me. Lower yield, right? Higher price, lower yield, weaker dollar and the market loved that precipice and what gets in the way of this market? I don't know right now, man. We're coming into a long weekend. Market's closed on Monday. NYSE is closed. We will be closed as well. Have a great holiday weekend. We got live programming going all the way until four o'clock today. May have one replay, I'm not sure, but we, everybody's gonna be back in action on Tuesday, which is the kicker as well. But yeah, the 10-year, 113. All right, let's jump around to some of the articles that got pulled up and we're gonna kick it off a little FedSpeak. Feds Waller says fears over a few banks should not alter policy. Wow, what if it's more than a few banks though? What if that's the, excuse me. Waller says the Fed is using separate tools for financial stability. You're gonna get some FedSpeak. It's gonna be interesting to see what they have to say. Tider conditions so far, continuation of prior trends is what you're talking about here. Let me state unequivocally. Here's this quote. The Fed's job is to use monetary policy to achieve its dual mandate, which is full employment and price stability, okay? And right now that means raising rates to fight inflation, he said. I do not support altering the stance of monetary policy over worries of ineffectual management at a few banks. So he's, of course, throwing those few banks in there as to the reason why they may potentially be pausing. It's not like 2007, 2008, where banks were sitting with some really bad toxic assets that were never gonna get better. People got scared, they ran, we stepped in, created liquidity facilities, replaced some of that deposit funding. Right now, everything seems to be calm in the banking system. And it is nothing like that 2007, 2008, because what can happen is it's a lot different, it's a lot different, right? With the losses on their books that they're dealing with, because the Fed could easily just actually take over those treasuries or whatever they have and be made whole. If you go into the commercial real estate side of things, though, that's where things get a little spicy, because that's where the money they have on the books, they're not getting paid, period, right? The value of those properties is worth less than the loans they have out on them, probably, for some of them, as we get to find that out. So you have a little bit of Fed speak today, and let's talk a little bit about the gas, why not? So this somewhere at the Journal, Americans find relief at the pump ahead of a busy driving season. You talk about the gas prices across the country. Yeah, we got some good prices in Florida. 343, let's see, hometown Boston, you're looking at 354, Massachusetts at least. Go out to California, 489, what a bargain, man. Alaska above $4, how does that happen, right? California paying almost a full dollar extra over what Hawaii is even paying out there, excuse me, what Alaska is paying, and even Hawaii, 474, yeah. California even paying more. Washington 486, Mississippi, $3. Yeah, so diesel's going down, they talked about it here, and it's interesting to see how this plays out. Gasoline usage lags behind the pre-pandemic levels, excuse me. So we were using 9.3 million barrels a day of motor and aviation gasoline, and we're still at 8.1. Feels like the roads are pretty busy, right? Feels like traffic is back, man. What would be happening if everybody was still doing five days a week? What a reprieve that is on some of the roads and infrastructure that we need, right? That people are working from home, and I think we can all attest, no matter where you are, traffic is back, man, and it's remarkable to see those numbers that we're actually using less. Dropped to 8.1 in 2020, we're at 8.8 in 2022, but you're talking about still. I mean, think about it, that's the average from 2016 into 2019 was 9.3 million barrels a day, we're still under that number, and we're coming into the later part of 2023. So we'll see where gas prices go from there. Now, this is gonna be an interesting one. I'm gonna tease this one, not the Disney one, we'll talk about that as well, but student loan repayments, how is this gonna factor to everything? You wanna talk about some numbers, man. 26.6 million people, about 10% of the adult population are basically gonna get a new bill every month that they have not gotten in the last three years. That's gonna have to matter, right? And those are the people that it may matter the most, of course, in terms of impacting purchases they're making elsewhere. If you're somebody with a student loan and you've had that in forbearance, you are potentially one of the people that's probably on the cusp where inflation is crushing you the hardest. If you have a student loan, you're choosing to put that into forbearance. And what it talks about is 17% of the adult population have federal student debt of those borrowers, about 26.6 million, or 10% of the adult population had loans in forbearance as of the first quarter. And guess what? That pause is ending August 30th. You got a summer and that's it. And yeah, I imagine that's gonna matter coming into the new year. Stay tuned, folks, we'll be right back. TFNN has launched the Tiger's Den, hosted at Discord. TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours, the Tiger's Den, available to all tigers and tigeresses for just $1 for the year. There's no cash or added costs when you join our community of traders. Sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders. Just visit the front page of TFNN.com. Everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence. 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If you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market, then Rocket Equities and Options Report is a newsletter you should try. Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them using a combination of fundamentals and technicals. Sign up for Rocket Equities and Options Report today with a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. For all the details and to start your subscription today, visit the front page of TFNN.com. TFNN, educating investors. Well, excuse me, welcome back folks. We have the S&P up by 12.2 right now, 44.82 just off the highs yesterday of 44.85. So we're talking about student loan repayments that are coming back August 30th. You're talking about one out of every 10 adults. Man with numbers when you think about it in that context. But boy, it gets even bigger than that. So you talk about in repayment, the blue versus in forbearance. These are a number of federal student loan borrowers in repayment in forbearance. You see what happened of course during COVID. But check out these numbers, okay? And yes, I think that what Biden did is probably not gonna be upheld by the Supreme Court but that doesn't matter anyway because these are probably, these are coming back as a part of the debt deal, okay? It would just be whether they're all coming back where other people get that $10,000 cleared away, et cetera. And whether it's right or wrong, my preference, if it matters, which it doesn't in some context, but it does because all of our preferences matter collectively to basically the government being us, right? Is that it's a dicey deal when one person, whether you agree with Biden, whether you agree with Trump, when they start doing things like that on their own and just deciding to clear out federal debt of $10,000, unilaterally one person, that gets pretty dicey, man, in my opinion. Listen, and Trump was handing out tax cuts, man, nobody stood out to him. That was crazy too. If a Democrat ever during the pandemic was just sending cash checks out to everybody, that's not a good thing either. Congress could have been able to do that. Nonetheless, we digress, okay? Let's get into the numbers that matter. Here we go, the hit to household cash flows as a result of the resumption could be substantial, Bank of America, Institute, estimates. It might be around $180 a month. That doesn't sound that bad, right? Wait. For the median impacted household, okay? These numbers jump around. So they're giving you a few reference points. In a 2017 survey conducted by the Fed, the median monthly student loan repayment was $220 and the average was $393. Estimates vary, but even on a conservative expectation, borrowers are set to collectively resume paying $5 to $8 billion a month. That's the conservative, okay? Some research outfits, including J.P. Morgan and T.D. Cowan placed the number closer to $10 billion. $5 to $10 billion a month, probably closer to $8 to $10, maybe in the $8, $10, something like that, right? Okay, there's your reasonable number. What's $10 billion a month in the context of what people spend on retail? Folks, it's mammoth. For context, Americans collectively spend about $35 billion a month on clothing and department stores, according to data from the Census Bureau. So think about that, right? Americans spend $35 billion a month on clothing and department stores, and all of a sudden, Americans collectively, one out of every 10 adults are going to be responsible for about $10 billion in payments on a monthly basis that they were not responsible for for the last three years. And that's a long time, folks. It's a long time as in you get used to not having those payments. If you got to skip a loan payment for a month or two or something like that, you don't recalibrate your life, right? You skip it for three years through the pandemic, post-pandemic, we're coming into August of 2000, excuse me, 23, you've probably recalibrated your life to a certain degree that you are no longer calculating that monthly payment as a necessity, and you've come to spend that money in other areas of life deeming that a necessity. Nonetheless, man, those numbers really stick out. It's a huge one. Yeah, the return of student loan payments is a much larger collective wallet impact compared with the end of the pandemic era enhanced food stamp benefits, which took away around three billion of additional assistance a month. Think about these things, right? So the end of such government relief can have an immediate impact. Dollar Tree, for example, noted on its last earnings call that the reduction in those food stamp benefits, which was $3 billion a month, right? Led consumers to focus more on needs rather than wants. Its family dollar brand saw same-store sales of discretionary goods decline 4.4% in the quarter compared to a year earlier, and that was with a $3 billion hit. And that's the bottom echelon, of course, when you're talking about a fairly dollar, you're talking about Dollar Tree, but the average student loan bar is younger, more likely to be single, female, and earn slightly less than the average US consumer. 62% are 39 or younger, and that group owed 55% of total student debt as of 2021. Yeah, share of credit card debt balance that is transitioning to serious delinquency, 90 days or more. And look at the numbers in young people, man. 18 to 29. You talk about some spikes here, and look where we can get to, right? Yeah, so that's a dicey one for sure. And keep your eye on it, that starts at the end of the summer. Yeah, and of course it's young people, the cost of education, man, it's crazy, right? I mean, I was fortunate to have an amazing education. I went to an amazing high school in then in Massachusetts, Noble and Greeno, went to an outstanding university, Villanova University, outside of Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, and you can't put a price on education, but unfortunately you can put a price on education because there's an opportunity cost that goes along with it. That's what happens there. There's an opportunity cost, right? So the price you can always put on something is an opportunity cost, and the opportunity cost for some of the prices of the education going on is so large that you get to the degree. I mean, folks, Tommy right now is two years old. So I think of where prices are gonna be for education when he is, of course, 18 years old. And 16 years from now, when you talk about the year 2040, you talk about a college education, you could run easily in the hundreds of thousands of dollars and who knows what that's gonna be equivalent to at that time, but right now even, you're talking to all people taking on levels of debt, 200, 300, $400,000 of debt when there's a lot you could do with that money that may impact your life in a much more beneficial manner, especially if you have to take out the debt for it. It's one thing that maybe you're fortunate, and listen, one of the things, maybe I'll talk about it after this break, and I will, I'll reference it. If you're in Florida, folks, Florida prepaid is an outstanding deal for kids. You can prepay your education. If you have the ability to do it, whether you can put that payment on a monthly, yearly, or either one-time payment, you go in-state tuition in Florida, and I'll pull it up because it's a tremendous deal. If you have kids out there, you got grandkids in there, you wanna look at it, it at least gives them the option because 16 years from now, you got two-year-old, 18 years old, where is education gonna be? For reference, folks, for Tommy, you can lock in a four-year university. I think it's like $28,000 right now, $27,000 paid today, guarantees him four years in-state university. There's a number of universities that qualify. Florida University is one of them. Florida State, I think, is in there. You can do different types. You can do a two-year college application to some degree. But the cool part is, is that, let's say Tommy turns 18, he decides he doesn't wanna go to Florida. Maybe he wants to go to Villanova like me. Maybe he wants to go to Boston College or Harvard, up in Boston. You can take the value of that money and use it elsewhere if you want to. The kicker, though, is that by using it in Florida, you get in-state tuition, which is the huge, obviously value add. I mean, I think right now, University of Florida's like $6,000 a year in-state or something like that, tremendous value. If you get some great in-state universities. But, yeah, it's out of whack-man with the amount of debt a lot of people have. It's coming back at the end of August and it's $10 billion a month and people only spend $35 billion in clothing and department stores. Not a lot of people know that, I think. That is a big one, to say the least. Stay tuned, folks, markets. We're gonna see 4,500 on the S&P Futures. We're within about 11 points. Come on back, folks. It's Friday, coming into a long weekend. Building wealth trading in the stock market seems impossible to most people. They think it's too volatile and risky. Most people aren't going to take the time to educate themselves on how to do it right. But you're not most people, are you? At TFNN, you'll get the guidance you need to refine your strategies and techniques to invest like a pro, because you'll be a pro. 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Up to 15,475, you get the Dow up 83 points. Yeah, within a stone's throw, a 35,000 in the Dow and you get the Russell up by eight right now. You jump over to crude. We just were, so above 70 bucks, excuse me, above $71 when I started off the program. Back below that number, $70.77. You jump to gold, pulling back a bit to 1970. I imagine we have some action going on in currencies, right? Nah, no real huge reaction. I was expecting a little bit more of a pop than that if we were getting some action in gold, but not happening. You get a little bit of a gold pop down to 1969 in terms of a pop lower. I was thinking maybe you would have a little bit of dollar strength and it's not even happening. So you have gold trading lower, S&Ps up by 17. Let's jump around to some of the fang stocks. Look at Apple, man, 187.50. What is the number on, they got 16 almost billion shares outstanding. Wow, look how close we are, 2.93. So what do they need? They need $70 billion. They need about $4, almost $5.191 close to, it's gonna be the number. Something like that just out of my head on Apple, right near that number, man. But guess what? We trade a little bit lower on the open, they get back some bit. We jump over to Microsoft. Look at that run yesterday, man. Look at this run Microsoft is on. Doesn't mean it's gonna stop anytime soon folks, but we got Microsoft above the highs. We got Apple above the highs and you did it all in less than six months as in you got it all back on Microsoft in less than six months, right? This thing trades from 350 down to 220 over about the period of a year and within six months you get it all back. And longer picture. And look at the run this thing is on. Pretty remarkable. NASDAQ 100, pretty similar action. You're within about 1,300 points. I mean, NASDAQ 100, man. You did some context here. The COVID run, you did a full 618. I mean, think about it, the NASDAQ 100 traded up 10,000 points from the COVID lows, gave back a 618 in the entire move and we're almost back to that high, 10,000 points from the COVID lows. You came into 2020, okay, at about 9,000. So even in that context, pre COVID and that's after the run that we had in terms of coming in at 9,000, but you traded from 4,200 in the beginning of 2016. Here's some wild, wild things going on in this market, man. Might be getting a little parabolic here when you look at these longer-term charts, right? Look at the run apples on, man. Apple just added a trillion dollars in market cap, essentially, to where it was at the beginning of the year. So I know there's optimism, but boy, be careful. As you jump around to those charts, it's an interesting one. Global stocks head for the best week since March. Now, listen, you can't overstate it, I agree. Chairman Powell, their hope in inflation comes under control here, because if they were really worried and they thought they had two more hikes coming down the line, they probably would have hiked this meeting, or they would have been a little bit more adamant that maybe they're coming back in July and they're probably gonna hike, but all he did is he called it a live meeting and the numbers are gonna shape that and we'll see where we go. There's a lot of cash on the sidelines and we should not underestimate the investor's willingness to step in. I'd agree with that one, man. It's gonna be so interesting to see how things play out with so much money, sitting in money market funds, sitting in CDs that are gonna be coming up, right? And as rates drop, those are gonna become less attractive potentially to the market and then the housing. You get into housing. I mean, let's jump to the home builders. Jump to the Lenard, making new highs up another percent today, DR Horton up another 1.1% today, right near the highs. We jump over to Lenard. Now this one's an interesting one to think about. What happens if this is the beginning of the Fed pausing and even lets fast forward a year to 18 months to where they really start a cutting cycle, okay? Let's just say that it takes that long. A lot of people think it's not gonna take that long, right? Inflation's gonna roll over. The economy's gonna get hit in the next six months and the Fed's gonna start cutting at the beginning of next year. I mean, Chairman Powell said something like a couple of years in his press conference, something like that. Let's just say it takes a year to year and a half before they start cutting. What's gonna happen to the home builders in particular? Because the housing market, of course, that should help because it's going to allow your signature to be worth more money. So if you're willing to pay $2,800 a month for rent, if you're willing to pay $3,000 a month for a lease for a mortgage, well, it's just gonna increase the value. Maybe you were able to afford a $350,000 house prior with a $3,000 mortgage payment. Maybe that now goes up to a $400,000 property as interest rates come down. That's the square math of it, right? But how does it impact home builders in particular? I've been starting to think about this one because, and I'm not even talking about smaller private builders, like maybe even my dad, building out in St. Pete. I'm talking about these home builders that have capitalized so well off of what's going on because of the huge supply crunch where they have vast amounts of land. They build huge plots. I've talked about the building going on next to me. You have Lenar and DR Horton, okay? They are both building, literally right next to me in Lakeland, Florida. I think the development is something like 1,500 homes. 1,500, they're building a city, man. They are building two cities practically. They just keep popping them out on the street. People keep moving into them. They're the only game in town right now. And it seems easy in hindsight, right? But nobody's selling their house when they have a mortgage at three to 4% when the next one they have to get is potentially 7%. What happens when rates go down to a little bit more affordable? That people who might not be willing to sell their house right now, then guess what? That supply is gonna come on. There's gonna be a double-edged sword. They're also gonna benefit just like I talked about in terms of that person being able to pay more with the same monthly payment. So they could in theory charge more for their homes while offering people the same monthly payment for their mortgage. But there is a supply shortage of current homes that if that comes back, you're gonna have a lot of people who feel like they can't sell right now. And I'm going big picture here, right? I'm going years down the line when we get a shift from the interest rates we're at now, even if they come down a couple percentage points to really allow people potentially, right? To sell their home, buy a different home. Maybe they're comfortable getting in at 4.75% on the new home. Something that doesn't feel like you're getting robbed by giving up a 4% mortgage and having to go get a 7% mortgage. The flood of people that may flood the market there, something to keep in mind on the horizon. Doesn't mean it's gonna kill the market, but it does put a cap on things, especially for the home builders to some degree. I think they have some room to run even from here, but it is something to think about big picture because they are the only game in town and eventually that's gonna change, man. Eventually rates are going to come back down as inflation gets under control. And then people will be able to potentially sell their homes again. But right now, don't plan on doing that at all. Nonetheless, today, higher prices across the board, man. S&P, up by 10, NASDAQ, up by 17, Dow up 72, Russell flat, stay tuned folks, one more. We got a couple more segments, I'll be right back. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life, before you decide it's impossible, get some advice from the experts. You might find that it's not so impossible after all. For daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices, selective stocks and commodities, subscribe to the opening call newsletter at tfnn.com. The opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman, creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman Wave. 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Distributor, Four Side Fund Services, LLC. This program is brought to you by Vista Gold. Traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ. Back folks, we got markets in the positive. We get the Russell basically flat to negative by one point S&Ps up by eight. We jump over to Disney, Disney negative by a percent. Look at that drop off to 91.90 there. And so the Disney, yeah, they have their finance chief. CFO, I think that's who it is. Now she was critical and chapit getting ousted I believe as well. Christine McCarthy has taken a family medical leave. Move Catches Associates by surprise. Her husband has been in a healthcare facility unfortunately since the start of the year. So he's dealing with something. So she's got some family medical going on for sure. The abrupt exit caught some colleagues and associates by surprise. She's been a little bit of a thorn here in the side of Iger and others including the amount of money Disney spends on content and recent restructuring. She felt did not go far enough to streamline the company. It's probably as simple as, you know, she's facing some obstacles at work. She's got a husband in the hospital and maybe it's just not worth it at that degree. Not sure she got pushed out to that degree but it is interesting when you have an executive that clashes with somebody like Iger, right? And then they're stepping away. McCarthy pushed for the Disney Entertainment Unit to be further consolidated, okay? So Iger came in, he created three main units. One for the parks, one for consumer products and another for ESPN and a Disney Entertainment Unit that houses movie and television operations as well as streaming services Disney Plus and Hulu. She wanted the Entertainment Unit to be further consolidated to improve profit margins and give Disney a leaner structure more akin to Netflix. And that put her at odds with some of the leadership there. Nonetheless, Disney men, it's a tough one. Now, yeah, we'll leave it at that in the market. Let me give back some of those gains, man. A little bit of a quick drop off from 44.92 down to 44.75. All things considered, folks, we're through the stratosphere right now, right? I mean, I'm not sure what else to say. You go back three months ago and you're up 600 S&P points, more than that. Yeah, 600 S&P points if you don't include the gap away on the futures, which you usually get of about 30, 40, 50 points, something like that in terms of the rollover from contract to contract since we're looking at the futures. Let's check out some of the thank stocks as we get a little bit of a sell-off to kick off the Friday going into a long weekend. Apple shares down 410th percent. Microsoft shares down about 210th percent. We jump over to Google. Yeah, Google's a different, excuse me, Google's a different story, man. If you have Google, I mean, I say I'd be careful. It's underperforming its peers in my opinion right now. I mean, you just saw where Microsoft and Apple are. Google's not even close to its high of 153. You're $30 off of that high. You're still 20% pullback from the highs. Google compared to Microsoft compared to Apple. Google's been plowing money into AI and they haven't gotten nearly the benefit that Microsoft has seen. And if anything, AI is going to allow Microsoft to eat Google's lunch when it comes to search, et cetera, with the likes of ChatGBT. Yeah, let's see how Tesla's trading. Tesla positive with the market today. I got the channel lines on there. That's a decent breakout, man. Tesla's still 150 bucks off of the highs of that company. So that's got some ways to go. Speaking of companies with ways to go, Amazon down a percent today as the market sells off a bit. Amazon 125.76 down $1.37. And you talk about off the highs of 190. Let's check out some of the retailers. Walmart held up so well, man. Look at this. It got it all back basically in a year from that drop off. You got a company like Walmart go from 160 down to 120 and it gets it all back just like that. Target shares, not quite the same scenario. And they are two different stores, man. Target, I was listening to Fast Market talking about them I think this week as well, Target. I spent a lot of time in Target, man. It is like a home good store, right? Their grocery section, especially their refrigerated grocery section is a joke straight up. I mean, you're talking about nothing. They basically put it in there. You got a few bananas, you got some fruit, you got a few pieces of chicken, maybe a few pieces of beef. You have more than that, okay? You have yogurt. But it is a very tiny portion of their store versus company like Walmart that does substantial groceries along with other staples versus discretionary that you have at a company like Target. We got a little bit of a sell off. All things considered, look at that weekly bar that we're talking about in the S&P though folks, right? I mean, you just gave up 24 points in the S&P but all you're doing is, oops, excuse me, zooming out, is you're back to where we were trading at 2.45 in the afternoon yesterday. Okay, so we're at some lofty levels. I wouldn't expect some huge sell off today. Euphoria is high. We're coming into a long weekend. People got Monday off for the holiday. It's summer, it's June, and it's Father's Day as well, which is pretty cool that we got a long weekend on top of that on Father's Day. Yeah, so I wouldn't expect some kind of huge sell off here. Let's jump over to the VIX. Do we have some fear in this market? 1451, slightly elevated but all things considered relatively low volatility index with what you have going on. But yeah, it's an interesting week that you reached the end of a 15 month hiking cycle in the Fed, right? Let's check in on the dollar index. Yeah, the Fed, the market has made up its mind at least for right now, folks, that they did not believe Chairman Powell that they were gonna come out with the hawkish statement. They paused, he wasn't strong enough in his wording, that they think that they might be trying to let this go. And when he said, because somebody asked a great question, I've been talking about it. We're only gonna get really one month of data out to their next week meeting. Let's get there scheduling. It's late July. Yeah, July 25th and 26th is their next meeting. So during that time, you're gonna get the month of June data. But then what happens is, is that you go to the next meeting is September 19th and 20th. Well, during that time, you're gonna get July's data and you're gonna get August data. So when they ask the question, they say, well, you're gonna be data dependent. The next meeting in July, you're really only gonna get the June data, right? You're gonna get June non-farm payrolls. You're gonna get June CPI. You're gonna get some other data, but that's all you're gonna get. He said, well, we're gonna take, we're gonna take more than that. We're gonna take two, three months of data. Well, if that's the case, they might be going pause there too, because the numbers might be nice to them when you're talking about some of the comps you're dealing with from the numbers we get in June, which would allow them to say, we're gonna pause one more meeting. We're gonna skip one more meeting in July and then we'll see where we go. Well, that's when the data really matters, I guess, September 19th and 20th, because if they're where they are right now, and we're not gonna get that much data before July, I mean, it's gonna be interesting to see what some of the Fed speakers have to say. And I think that's what the markets at least figured out for right now. And now it's the Fed's job to correct them, right? Chairman Powell could come out and correct them. He's probably gonna be speaking for that July meeting at some point, and we'll see if he does. But as for right now, the market's gonna take it, run with it, and then you had the ECB yesterday who seemed especially hawkish, and Christine Lagarde left no room saying, yes, they're very likely to raise in July. Chairman Powell could have said that, he did not. And I think that's where really things started to shift yesterday. You saw the Fed decision, but I think market participants saw the way that Chairman Powell handled the press conference talking about the next meeting versus the way the ECB, that's only at 3.5% right now, handled addressing how they'll come in to the next meeting. Quite a difference. And we might be at 5.1 for a while, but not sure we're gonna get many more hikes unless we really need it. We'll see if it plays out. One more segment folks, don't go away, we'll be right back. TFNN has just launched their new trading room, the Tiger Zen, hosted at Discord. 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This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. Welcome back, folks. We have the S&Ps basically flat. You're positive by one point right now, trading at 44.72, NASDAQ barely in the red, off 31 points, you get the Dow up by nine, the Russell negative by four, you jump to gold. Gold contract up by $2 at 1972. This morning, you got the crew contract. Basically flat, we'll call it on the session. You were above 71 bucks right now. You're at 70.87. You got to keep your eye on the dollar index after the move yesterday. The calm after the storm. And boy, I mean, you look back this thing up to Monday, we were pushing 104. We just almost got a 101 handle. You trade down almost two full points in the dollar index. We're at 102.16. You look where we're on Monday on yields. Right, you get a little bit of volatility, but not quite the same scenario. As in, you were all the way up to almost 114. You were down to 112. But considering where we were at the beginning of the week, you're talking about basically within about eight ticks in the tenure. So yes, yields have changed, but really a huge reaction in the dollar index on the heels of RFED and the ECB as well. We check out some of those fang stocks, Amazon shares sell off on the open, man. We have a little bit of a sell off on the open, but not surprising considering the run that we've been on. Apple off about half a percent. We jump over to AI and Nvidia shares while you talk about a rocket ship, still up a percent. AMD, a little bit of a different story. Yeah, down 2.3% for AMD shares. Let's see how some of the airlines are trading. American, look at the run that they've been on, man. Look at that run. So what does that back it up to? That's May 24th. Boy, quite a run for these airlines, right? American from 13 bucks in May up to 16.62. We jump over to Delta. Let's see if jet blue. Even jet blue catching a bit, I will say. And United. Yeah, look at that, man. Let's see those cruise ships. Look at these cruise ships. Yeah, that could be a breakout. I've talked about it before. And let's check out Norwegian. Travel on the rise, everything on the rise in these markets. Well, folks, thanks so much for tuning in to start your Friday off, please. Have a great weekend. Have a safe weekend. Enjoy it. Happy Father's Day to all the fathers out there. Folks, no drunk driving. Plan for it. Take an Uber. Do what you need to do. Don't get behind that wheel if you have too many cocktails. Life is too beautiful. It's too much fun. We'll see you back here on Tuesday. And stay tuned, folks. We got Basil. He's coming up next. Have a great weekend, everybody. We'll see you on Tuesday.