 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The Tiger Technician Hour with your host, Hazel Chapman. Call now. Call free at 1-877-927-6648. Hi, folks. Friday, 22nd of April. We're looking at the Dow. It's very interesting because the Dow was kind of the leader on the upside. It went to a new recovery high yesterday at $35,492. Let me just type that in so I've got it there. $35,492. Yeah, we had $34,500. And yes, that was quite a turnaround interest rate. Now, what's interesting is that did we not know that the Fed were going to be talking about 50 basis points hike? I mean, really. There's nothing new. It's just what we're looking at here is that there's been a rotational correction. The Dow has been one of the stronger indices. The S&P, so the Dow is down $300 at $34,495, playing a little bit of catch up here. Here's the Chapman falling X formation, where nicely above it did beautifully and then pulled back, as I say, 1,100 points, something in the last two sessions after making a new recovery high. Great Egg B, because the stochastic is very weak at 53%, and the MACD is still negative. I don't want to see a defect lower, but that's what we're looking at. If you're looking at the S&P, here we go. S&P down made a new, you call them recovery lows, recovery highs. What do you call them on the downside? Recovery lows, unrecovery lows. Unrecovery lows, and we're looking at a price point of 43.67 down 25. What is quite fascinating is the way the 200-period moving average, remember, I love to use certain techniques. You don't have to use them at all until they become important. But look at the sine wave up and below the orange 200-period exponential moving average at 44.10. We've been nicely above it, 46.37. We were down to 41.14, back in the 24th affair. This is the way I thought that we would have April. The patterns that we'd be looking at in April was a big consolidation phase with some leadership and some real failures, and that we're still going to be looking for the cues. It takes a long time. I'll talk about it now, because I'm not able to forget. The NDX100, those fantastic stocks, not all in the NDX100, but those growth stocks that had spectacular 2020 to 2021 rallies, and then sometimes starting about September of last year, just could not get out of their own way. Let's look at this. I'll do the QQQ right now, because that's what I'm talking about. So what happens is November the 22nd, there's this potential for, like a head and shoulders, a complex one, but 408.71 on the 22nd pulls back to the 378 level. It goes right back and gets real close to the 401, 402 area, and that makes your cup formation with the right side failure. With the left side, look at that strength in that one. This is good, strong, and this is weak. This is the vertical line. This is a chapter we've vertical test, and we call this weak. So there it is, and it says that on the rally, there was very little there. And when we saw the same thing on the downside, look at this. It comes down to 318.28 roundabout to 24th of Feb, rallies up, and then retests at 317.45 within less than a point, and the stochastic and mag D were just slightly better, not the unbalanced volume, which gave you a nice turnaround, but the others. So there was a rally, it goes to 371, and then comes back down. So this vertical testing is very much like when you see Tom do his charts, and all he has is the volume. I use unbalanced volume, he uses volume, and then he does this vertical test of what's going on. I love that because whatever technique you're using, just be consistent about it. And if you look at this, you'll see that it wasn't very, very, very strong technical divergence between the 318 level on 24th of Feb and the low that was around about the 14th of March. So the run-up said, you're running up, but you don't really have the veracity to sustain the movement. Now you've come back, but look, with all that's going on, it hasn't broken down. The low today is 331.64, between about 317.45. So there's room to go to the downside. But I'm looking at this saying it's very good that you've used time. Remember, I said April is going to be an issue because I think we're going to be using time rather than price. If you look at the semiconductors, estimators, retesting 237.32, the low, I think it was on the 14th of March, runs up to the 283-ish level, pulls back, comes back to 237.09. And where is it today? It's testing 237.82 is the low. So what we're looking at is all of these areas are being tested as a base. And that says to me that you've got to look at the selectivity of each index. Let's just go back to the Dow. Look at the Dow. It has a completely different pattern. It is weak today, much weaker than the others, down 1%. There's only down 0.76 and the QQQ is at down 0.25. So in this rotation that I've been talking about, the rotational correction is ongoing. That's the reason why we've had select stocks and I've tightened up stocks. We got stocked out of one of our gold stocks today. We had a nice gain and then we've got back in and we've got a little bit of a loss on the new position, but on the core position. Basically, I'd say overall it's more of a gain than a loss. But most importantly, what we are looking at is you've got to be very selective here. You've got to be thinking what's working and what's not working. In terms of that, look at this. If I go through the left side, right side, the higher the 35,372 level in the Dow back around about the 28th of March, pull back and then two days ago, that's yesterday, the higher 35,492, the technicals were a little bit weaker but not weak enough to say, oh, we're going all the way back to the 33,000, not yet anyway. At this particular point, it's got some stability. Now, what's really important about this is that a question came in. I'm going to deal with all the questions as I go through the different charts as I do a review. The most important question that I got while I was away yesterday and then I came back was with the Fed really taking away the punch ball, with the Fed going to raise rates, surely historically we've seen this over and over again where the market succumbs to selling pressure because you don't have the Fed bringing the market. I don't disagree with that. I've been talking about that for a long time. One of the reasons why we raise cash, is we only in very select positions in areas that are kind of what I call under the radar. And I have to, I can't disagree. I can concur, but I'm going to talk about the difference. And I'll be back in a moment. Downs down 388, S&P's down 35,000. If I could just answer, I'll be right back. Are you looking for a way to consistently add winning trades to your portfolio? Tom O'Brien is here to help. Tom O'Brien has been successfully trading markets for over 30 years. A frequent contributor to TD Ameritrade Network and CNBC, Tom O'Brien founded TFNN over 20 years ago to help educate investors just like you. Tom's Daily Market Newsletter, Market Insights, is published every morning when the market's open to give you the competitive informational edge you need to succeed. These newsletters are packed full of Tom's advanced technical analysis and are geared to deliver comprehensive strategies for a successful portfolio. 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Watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be, TFNN. Toll Free at 1-877-927-6648 Internationally at 727-873-7618 Hi, folks. So, in regard to what we're looking at and why we're looking at it, a good question came in here. Hi, Basil. What do you think about buying JEPI as a long-term investment? Is it at APG or C? Would it be okay to buy at the 200 EMA? So, the question is a very good one and a good I. That wasn't... Did you get a C? I didn't... I got a... Yeah, I got a B. G-Sash-B. So, basically in the Chapman methodology, since we technically go Friday today, this is the low at about 57 right there on the 24th... Was it a FED? The 24th of FED, it goes to 57.08. Let me just type that in. So, 57.08 and then it rallies very sharply and it goes 57.08. Now, what is JEPI? JEPI is JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF. It's an income distribution for a monthly distribution. I guess that you have covered core ETF for the S&P 500 designed to mitigate volatility and general income. Let's look at the other one while we're at it. That was SPLV. I hope I remember this one. Yes, I did. Making a peak F as we look at it and this is the Invesco S&P 500 low-volatility ETF. Remember, I like to look at these double tops. I have in fact a whole slew that we want to look at today. So, what is the difference between the move that was made? I'm comparing the two because it's in the same area of at least as they say, mitigating some decline in the S&P and we've got the high of 68.86 back in December. Pulls back sharply to the 61s. Goes back to 69.16 just oh, wait a minute, that must have changed. That must be 69.82. So, that's 69.82 just yesterday. So, the question is, is this the kind of instrument that you want where you just want to put some cash somewhere, you want it to work for you, you don't want to put it into like a bank account? And the answer I think is yes, but you've got to be very selective. So, now we can go back to the question of JEPI. SPLV is the... Oh, let me tell you what it is. I think I forgot. SPLV is the... Yes, I did. Invesco S&P 500, low volatility ETF. It's been spectacular up until yesterday where it went to a new all-time high. Let's go to JEPI, which is not quite the same pattern. It's close, but not the same. It did not go to a new all-time high. So, this is a little bit weaker. It's a 61.06 down 63 cents today. Now, that's very interesting because it's been making higher highs. Now, the question is, is it a G or is it a B? I'm going to go with this. It's most probably a G, but to make it guarantee that it's a G and not a B because B would say, hey, you should still go to higher highs. If he says, uh-oh, be careful. We're in a bigger consolidation. My thinking is that this is in a bigger consolidation right now. I think you also have to treat these as individual study exercises. You can't just say, oh, yeah, this is great because market is shaky, shaky, shaky. Look how they acted in the last two days. Market came down sharply. They both came down sharply. SPLV is a two-day move, not as sharp as the other. To tell you the truth on a purely visual basis, also on a technical basis, but I mean, you've got a visual and technical at the same time, this is a much SPLV is a much better one, but it was at highs. And the question has to be in this environment, regardless of what's happening along. Look, the spy is not at lows. It's at recent lows on a weekly basis. We go back to the 410.64 low of the 24th of February, and here we are at 433. It's not, it definitely is not at lows as you are looking at the very image of the SPLV and the JEPI. And so there is a big difference. And they are outperforming, those other two are outperforming. So the questions, this is a simple question. What about buying a starting position of the 200p moving average of 60.52 and I'm going to agree. I'm going to suggest that even though it could go a little lower than that I would just start the position because what you want is you want to get your foot in the door so that you understand it how it acts and reacts to the market environment because this is and consider it almost like a VIX index in a sense because it's going to give you the sentiment of the market play in real terms, but based on buying and selling of equities as opposed to an emotional volatility index because you know that if there's a rally all of a sudden today and by three o'clock the dial is only down 235 points instead of 435 points that VIX will probably start to pull back and we don't know yet exactly what will happen to those other two instruments. So it's a simple question and I'm going to make it a simple answer and then if it hits there give me a yell, we'll look at it together at 60.52 it says 61.01 down 68 cents just today alone now the big thing is this I've got an L in the weekly chart of the JP Morgan equity premium income ETF and cannot hold with an L all the way through next week it won't if it suddenly starts to trade under 60.50 so as it's getting to the 60.52 area we're going to have to do a lot of assessment the reason why I say start a small position is only because I don't see this as the big go-to area at this particular point because of the rectangle formation that's gone slightly above the previous high it's just a small one that's narrow for the moment and it should go underneath it and then try to come back and hold so it's a start a position now what happens if it's a 61 what happens if by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week it hasn't even gone to 60.52 in fact it holds very nicely at 61.45 I would still say the rectangle formation says wait for a bit of a pullback and then you can think about just under 61 you could change that look as a start a position and if you wanted to just have it as a start a position to get a feel you could buy it right here on its way down at 61 and not wait for that extra 48 cents I would have a little discipline I'd stick around and wait for the 48 cents all right so that's what we wanted to do that now let's go through the other things what we're looking at is that the XLK which is the S&P Select there we go let me just move this over this is the S&P Select Tech Spider Fund made a peak D in the monthly chart this is a lousy candle when you think about what happened over the last two weeks this is really an ugly candle in the monthly chart weekly candle is making its second dreaded H pattern it's at 145.71 down to $1.49 and it's taken out the left side low A B C this is now a leg D to the downside a brand new cell mode in the downside and that is telling me loud and clear as I've said many many times for really it's not weeks it's months be careful of the tech sector that tech sector could be great for trades but there is a lot more damage all right there's a bunch to go through got questions coming in that one about ARK ARK is the Kathy Woods fund innovation fund not doing very well I'll be back in a minute that's taken off topside in a large way if you want to take advantage of this sector now is the time to subscribe to my gold report the gold report is a comprehensive look at the metal sector as well as the markets that move gold which is the currency and bond markets new subscribers get a 30 day money back guarantee so you have nothing to lose every Monday morning I publish the gold report with coverage of gold silver bonds the XAU HUI GDX as well as more than 30 different mining equities to see for yourself the types of profitable trades that are recommended within the gold report sign up now by visiting tfnn.com don't miss out on 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increase the Fed funds rate by 50 basis points and stuff I'm just trying to get a handle of your opinion on that I know there was an article in The Economist about the Fed failing and stuff and how do you feel what is your outlook what you think that impact will have in the markets that's an obvious and extremely relevant question unfortunately it should be an irrelevant question how long I've been showing for a couple of years I've been saying why on earth doesn't the Fed start to raise rates as long as demand is there I mean historically that's the way it's always worked there's demand for bonds therefore the rates will go a little higher and you just keep doing that as the demand is there in a certain point it gets to a stage where folks saying you know at this particular point I'm not going to I don't want to pay that much for auto loans or whatever it is and there's a little bit of a cooling off back in the 1970s we had these recessions that were already six weeks to about I'm not even sure there were much more six weeks to maybe eight weeks of a decline no they were even shorter than that there were these declines and then there were rallies to near recovery high than a decline and they kept rotating but you know that's part of the whole thing so as I'm looking at it right now the Fed is as always behind the eight ball and that issue for me is not the raising of rates it's the timing and I think the market is going to and that's one of the reasons why I've said for a long time if anyone has a cash that they've been putting to work as we were looking at it back at the end of last year I said let's take money off and you can start putting it back in increments every month and then about three four weeks ago I said you know what this is the first time I'm going to say take a little bit back off and hold off to have money because at some point we will get that 2,500 to 3,000 point Dow decline as things suddenly come together but overall the market has anticipated all of this to the extent that it's been spoken about often enough and it's really how does the market react well what we've seen is in the QQQ which is the growth stock area you've had this huge decline it really is a huge decline when you put it together with the way even the S&P which is not acting as well as the Dow how that's acted but if you're looking at historically going from 408 in the QQQ's down to the 318 level 100 points it's what 25 something something around about 25% range that's a pretty big move but when you think of all the conditions war inflation like we haven't seen in decades and decades you've got talk about rates going much higher well they have gone high but they're not historically where they were back about 10 years or more ago so I think that we've got to put it together and that's the reason why I'm saying there are sectors not only that if you think of it this way Sharki if you think of it as this there's a chance that we could have I can't really call it a new economy but for so long presidents have spoken about the United States being a little more independent in that we produce we get back to having factories and we manufacturing goods if you think about it that way in the last 6 to 8 months I've read more and more and more about made in America there are whole areas of New England that are towns that are mostly craftsmen they do fantastic jobs if you think about it as the 1920s where the automobile companies there were hundreds and hundreds of automobile companies here in Massachusetts alone, you're from Massachusetts there were so dozens and dozens I think there are actually a couple of hundred automobile manufacturers we're right in that stage now all over the show there are people starting to develop or electric automobiles so in many ways this could be a very exciting period we're not reading about it it's just hard to grasp under these conditions so I see that there are a lot of very positive aspects but there are a lot of I mean if you go back to some of those stocks I mean yes there's a company a fantastic company Adobe in the sweet spot all the way to its high back in 2021 which it was at 700 what was it exactly I can give you now 699.54 with the Chapman Wave 2 bar reversal on the 22nd of November at a peak E and what does it do it drops just a little bit and goes down to the 400s I mean that is that's cloud digital commerce if you're looking at CRM so what I was thinking of as I was on the road yesterday I'm saying to myself when you think of areas if you look at the gold index you can go to the gold let's go to the GDX I'm answering your question in a kind of a comprehensive way that I really wanted to do today in any case get to this look at the GDX look at that move to the high that was made the double top left side right side price time match as well as a vertical decline in the MACD and stochastic and the monthly chart when the GDX went to the 66th area back in I think it was December of 2020 by 2010 and then a double tops at 66.98 in 2011 and then it was out of favor and that's the thing it was out of favor for four or five years before it started to kick in again so the whole thing is when sectors go out of favor they go out of favor for a number of reasons but one of the reasons is that they just became so overbought in every metric that they need huge a lot of time and a lot of price to digest their gains now if you look at SLX you look at the steel sector down from the high of yesterday close to all time highs has the same double double tops books I did you say something so what I'm looking at is there is a rotation going on where the deep cyclicals like the steel sector like aluminum made a high at 98 on the 25th of March it's trading now at 68, 76 where there have been big declines I don't want to ignore that so I'm saying there's a rotation going on there are still some sectors that are acting well but we've got to be looking at newer things you look at the airline index we can talk about that so I'll continue answering your question when we get back if you want to stay that's fine but I think it's a good question I will stay Basil I will stay enjoying it all I will stay Are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the Bay Area including the surrounding St. Petersburg and other markets Tiger Real Estate LLC is a firm that has extensive experience in the Tampa Bay Area whether you're looking to sell your current property for maximum value or you're in the market for a second home or investment property Tiger Realty has the experience across all areas of real estate in the Tampa Bay Area to help buyers and sellers make the most informed decisions across all price levels from the price you should be paying if your properties are capable of creating Tiger Real Estate can help you make the best decision when it comes to all areas of the market before you make one of the biggest decisions of your financial future call Tiger Real Estate 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tv we're back and we're back to sharky and making a massive talk about the Fed let me just sum it up when looking at the Fed as long as I can remember the Fed has pretty much always got things wrong when Volcker came in even he at first looked like he was doing things wrong but then of course he already put the squeeze on and we got rid of that inflation if that's the only way to do it that's the way it's going to have to be I guess but what we're really looking at here is that it was really the Ukraine for me the big issue has been when we look at the bread basket of a large part of the world Ukraine being in a just a terrible terrible situation I mean I don't know where they're getting income from at all right now so if that's the case then you've got to expect we are still long for subscribers of DBA which is the agriculture fund but if I said earlier in the week and late last week I think we're getting close to a point where the commodities will pull back so this is part of that whole inflation thing this is part of what the Fed looks at so if you're looking at crude oil crude oil is down almost $2.102.09 it's not going anywhere right now but it is stuck it hasn't gone high gold gold is down not going anywhere but it's stuck it isn't going back to those recent highs to me that's really important if you're looking at I said steel stocks they pulling back today they made a PG in the dating chart if you want to compare the left side to the right side in the vertical match you can go right there and at just under 70 back around by the 26th of March the technicals were strong because of the doji candle at PG in the most recent all time high so you can see there's a pullback and so I said to subscribers you've got to be ready for some kind of pullback in the commodities you can go to Lithium I mean you can go everywhere look at this huge move up over the 95 96 area a few months ago trading now 68 so what I am looking at is that there's a rotation going on the smash to the downside hasn't been what you normally expect I think there's just too many bears out there so that's going to give a cushion as soon as the market ready again and then everyone says okay I think this is it probably that's when you get that's why I said keep money handy there's going to be another shoe to drop whether we take out the lows of this year say in the Dow which is at the 20 what is it 34 to 32 32000 level I'm not so sure but there will be at least a very sharp pullback and they'll be buying opportunity but it become more and more selective number one you can't have the generals lead without the soldiers and we've kind of got that in the Dow right now so that's not such a great sign the other thing is that you also look at the rotational aspect and even within the groups like for instance for subscribers I have loved the cyber security area but there's nothing to buy because it's they're acting very poorly but I picked up one which is Akamai technology and it's holding you made a new all-time I was not all-time but a new high yesterday but the left side right side vertical price match says there's a little bit of weakness you can see that but it was it was almost near all-time high so even within sectors you got some leadership and a number of things fading so to answer the question about the Fed is always behind the eight ball I think in a way that's baked into the to the market because the market is also dealing with remember I think well for months I've been saying when when the Fed wants higher commodity prices when prices start to increase I don't know how they put the genie back in the box but it's going to be tough and that's kind of what we've got so in that regard you're looking at high prices now do we start to see a stalling because the ongoing conflict in the Ukraine Russia is going to be just an ongoing thing I think the Fed has a lot to look at because they have to I know they don't they're not supposed to but really they have to take the whole packaging if all of a sudden you get a deflation in the commodities even if just just briefly that can give them the chance to maybe just do a 50 rather than 75 percent increase so we're looking at a lot of things but I am going to say to you they invariably make a mistake they bound to make a mistake this time we've just got to be ready but that doesn't mean to say that the odd areas that could act very well in the meantime I've answered the question in a very long winded way yes so Basil I want to thank you that was just super and I hope everyone else I'm sure everyone else benefited from it too just super thank you so much well thank you very much I appreciate your call so to put that into perspective we can't ignore that oil is still pretty at 102 I mean when you fill up the tank your eyes pop out and say wow I wasn't doing that a year ago and if you look at UNG which is the United States Gas Fund it's in this process of pulling back it's at an island reversal at a peak E it's a leg D in the weekly so I think that these commodities have a chance to pull back as they pull back the Fed is going to say oh oh wait a minute maybe we've got that we said it would be temporary well right then but maybe it is temporary and then they might make that mistake and only do it maybe 25 or 50 who knows what's going on it is very complex right now that's the reason why I've said in your portfolio you can have a long-term position but you've got to ameliorate it somehow with either put options or something that is in a different area completely that's kind of what we've been doing and the other thing is you want to have some cash ready you there's going to be an opportunity no matter which way we look at it there be some kind of sudden smash not like yesterday there was kind of that was more emotional I mean that many things come together very negatively and it's not a one day but it's like a three to a whole week of just down down down every single day but within that context when you think about it wow the market is really held but oh now I want to go back to what I want to do about the TBT which is the bonds holding near the highs at 24.47 up 12 cents is it going to be as a doji candle by the end of the day a peak D lower yields sorry lower TBT next week and lower yields that's the big question have a look at oh I don't know if I have to I'll do it let's just do this quickly as it comes up the other things I want to talk about so let's go to this right I'll do it for subscribers to my opening call in greater detail tomorrow I just wanted to show it today remember my triple yield chart have a look at this what we've got is the 30 year the white is the 30 year T bond yield the TYX the brown is TNX that's the 10 year yield and the FVX is the cyan and look at this the cyan is up today's high is I'm going to every now and then update this today's high is 30.29 the the 30 year is 30.18 and the 10 year is 20.55 in other words 2. this 3. I wrote 3.0 1.8 it's not that anymore and look the cyan is way above I mean talk about yield curve right so and look what happened in wood the ice shares of the Gorba forestry and timber ETF it went to a new it went over the resistance line earlier this week now it's back under and look even the home builders that's what I'm saying this is an extremely mixed market if you're in the right areas that's fine but the fewer and fewer right areas at this particular time respect the market it's vulnerable have the rain vulnerable and the wallow I'll be back in a moment 1,800 and 90 sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument you have to practice sure but you also need excellent instruction from experts at TFNN you'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis and it's not just dry tedious text either TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN.com and TFNN's youtube channel with Tiger TV live every 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that are recommended within the gold report sign up now by visiting TFNN.com don't miss out on the next great gold trade sign up today this segment is brought to you by thinkorswim for more information just click the thinkorswim banner on the front page of TFNN.com three questions and let me get to them right away so the question is could there be a Dow rally today well once you get to minus foot 50 it makes a rally really important to occur what do we know we're now just about 11 o'clock by 12 10 if there is a rally starting off with a spy trading down 58 to 4331 you can see all these automated support levels right here 438 in the 4 4320s 28 area if there is a rally that can hold let's see if we can hold about 43 44 between 12 10 and 12 30 and any pullback is held nicely and it actually starts to go to the 4350 area that's 20 points from you but it makes 20 points in there a split second these days but you'd have a little bit of rally but I've got a feeling that the last 30 minutes is going to be weak so you have to treat it as a ready get in and get out but I'd be real careful because it's already gone to the 500 area down 500 not good next question was Newmont mining Basel a long time ago you said as a long term buy and hold it's a good place to be what should happen now Newmont mining 6.37 on the 18th of April pulling back really sharply given a little time I think gold will be back in play in a little bit and Newmont has a spectacular move I'd say it's 73 the low to day 70.60 you know what if I can get to the 200 period moving out of 66 give me a yell let's look at it again that might be your next entry is a longer term if you've taken money off that's the one third question was down chemical you mentioned it recently stock you liked but you didn't get in yeah yes this whole thing of the double tops I'll do a show on double tops on Monday I'll do some of my stats in my overview in my overview video for the week on Saturday 71.38 was down chemical high back in the week the 20th first of May one we've got a gig from high to behind this week of 71.86 within half a point just a little bit of context just pulling back so yeah I like