 When you're a trader, new trader, veteran trader, whatever trader you are, okay, learn to scale back. When the market rests, you rest. When the market pushes. Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process and own your future. Hey guys, good evening everybody. Welcome to another edition of the Access a Trader dot com nightly wrap up show. Hope everybody is doing well. So the month of October comes to an end. And by the way, full disclosure, if you start here, my dog bark, it's Halloween, kids already trick and treating. So forgive me in advance, but happy Halloween everybody. Hope everybody is doing well. So the month of October is gone, right? It's finished. Why is this month significant? Well, the Dow put in its biggest move since 1976. I was two years old trading for eight years already, right? That's how significant the month of October was. And in the meantime, while it put in this really, really big move, it reclaim some major, major, major levels. And, you know, resting today had a really, really deserved rest today, very, very significant. So if you put this into perspective, you're talking about 46 years. We haven't seen a month in the Dow, like we saw in October of 2022. Again, granted, it's only 30 stocks. Is it significant? Is it not significant? It's very cool, right? It's absolutely very cool. But more important, it's kind of what it's doing for the fourth quarter. And that's the most important part. We rested today. And after a 6% move of last week, was it really outlandish to think we were going to have a resday? Probably not, right? If you look at all the names that had their big movers last week, the apples of the world, they rested, right? You know, a lot of, you're going to see a lot of inside days today, a lot of inside charts that look like this day. Amgen that went on a really, really big run, for some reason, my chart doesn't want to update, right? Had a really, really big run rested today. Even a name like Netflix, we had a nice little pivot on Netflix today to the downside. But even Netflix, they had a really, really big run. It's finally getting a little bit tired, putting in three days in a row of lower highs, lost a five day moving average, maybe there's one more day to get it down to the 10 day moving average. But more important is the psychology. And that's kind of where we want to talk about today. Everybody wants that nonstop wrecking ball type of action. The bulls are just screaming, there's no holding back, bears going to get destroyed every single day. It doesn't work like that. We all know it doesn't work like that. In a bear market, we talked about every single day, we're all still below the 50 day moving average, but we talked about in a bear market, the market's not going to go straight down. There's going to be pregnant pauses. There's going to be rallies on counter rallies those days. And we're going to get exactly the same thing as far as the S&P and the Dow. As long as we continue to close over the 50 day moving average, and that's where we are right now. We are well above the 50 day moving average in the Dow. We're trying to get a little bit one more area. If the Dow could just even go sideways for the next few days, there's one more area here. If we could clear out this 30, let's just call it 329 level on the diamonds. If 329 starts kind of clearing out after a little bit of distribution, I think we're going to go higher. If you look at the SPY, again, nice little break today on the SPY put in an inside day. Now, the longer we build, and this is very, very important, the longer we build, continue to build above the 50 day moving average, the higher probability. Well, this more appreciation of stock prices, and that's exactly what we saw today. Again, another inside day. You had a lot of stocks that had big, big moves, well deserved rest. And you're going to see that over and over and over that in tonight's session. The Russell, again, has been a rocket, right? It's been really, really strong. Just to give you an idea how small names were today, even though a lot of stocks were very disconnected, and there was a lot of rest scenarios, give you an idea of how strong, at least the psychology is where we are right now. You had the small EV names, right? They're basically the Tesla's versions of three-legged dogs. You have names like Nikola today, right? Yeah, Nikola. Look at Nikola. Who the hell? Where are you even going to find them? I think that Nikola is the size of a toy car, right? You had Nikola moving up. You had FSR, right? Fisker at least had that really, really cool sports looking car. I think they kind of unrolled several years ago, but even Fisker woke up, right? A name like Rivian, which is a real company. I know it's more prevalent in the West Coast, but even Rivian. So you're seeing a lot of names that were out of favor for a very, very long time kind of wake up as a group. As a matter of fact, I actually really, really like Rivian in the next couple of days. You see how he just keeps on getting rejected off this purple line? If he could just reclaim it in the next few days, maybe this thing wakes up. But more important is getting speculation money, guys. That's the kind of rule of thumb. When the market is good, they chase anything. They'll buy anything. Not some dinky, rinky, $2 low-float stock with a hundred share of lots, but again, speculation money. Today, they talked about the pot stocks, right? They caught a bid today. Look at Tillray, right? Again, so when you see this type of action, this is not action that you would notably find in a bear scenario, in a frowned upon scenario. You would have never found that two weeks ago, right? Nobody would be bidding up and chasing these stocks two weeks ago, but the market has changed. The dynamics have changed. The one thing that has not changed yet, right? And I'm starting to get a little bit worried about it, not to the point of like, I'm losing sleep at night. The Nasdaq 100, again, continues to trail, right? We talked about on the weekend update, and that's because a lot of the leaders blew up on earnings, right? So if you look at names like Google, right? They're not going to participate because they blew up on earnings. You're not going to have a really great, strong participation on Amazon. It blew up on earnings. A name like Microsoft, right? Market leader, but it blew up on earnings. So we have all these things and meta today that broke down below earnings lows. But by the way, which I butchered the out of the trade, stock completely, completely imploded today, I think has more downside. So when you have scenarios that the market leaders are just weighing in on the major index, it's going to be very, very tough to push across. Now again, if eventually everybody gets tired, the sellers get numb, and we talked about that on the weekend update, and everything starts to go, then, hey, everything will rise. But I'm getting a little bit worried, not to the point that, again, I'm going to go balls out short to the wall tomorrow. But the point is, the longer we stay below, right? This area here, 8460, 8460, it keeps on getting rejected. The longer we stay below that 8460 level, the higher probability that we will roll over. The only thing is you don't need to guess. You don't need to anticipate. You don't even have to have a conversation with anybody to entertain this thought. We know the levels. We talked about the levels kind of in nausea on the weekend update, right? Below this 272 that held three times is going to go lower, and above 28460, if it starts building above, it's going to go higher. So for us to kind of speculate, well, you know, maybe it's going to, it's not its time. Maybe it's going to just start dragging everything down. It's a little bit premature, and that's the most important part. Don't, you know, don't try to anticipate something that's just not there, right? Like, so for example, there's a lot of charts that are sitting in the middle of their channels. They look good. They look that they're about to go, but they kind of stalled out and they kind of paused. We don't want that market, right? We want to make sure that everything wakes up and maybe that Microsoft that kind of let us out of that little funk a couple of days ago, not Microsoft, excuse me, Apple, maybe they finally wake up and pull everything up. So Microsoft and Apple, again, the two biggest weights on the NASDAQ, Apple had a really, really good digestive inside day, which basically mean it rested. Look at the volume on Friday versus the volume today. It traded down only a couple of points in the middle of the range. Didn't take out the highs. Didn't take out the lows. This is, you know, bullish action, right? This is called the res day. I would love to see Apple maybe go one more day sideways, right? Like one more day sideways and just maybe take out the range. And if it does take out the range, maybe at some point in the middle of the week, maybe everything finally does get pulled up. So when you see, for example, Amazon, Meta, Google, Microsoft, if they start participating, you know, everything will start participating as well. Look at a name like, for example, like Tesla, right? We saw some really, really good call buying today, some pretty aggressive short-term expiration. One guy came in, I believe it was for the November 18th expiration for the 250 calls. The dude laid out $2 million worth of premium. I don't know. That sounds that he's not uncertain, right? To kind of borrow the phrase from billions on showtime. But look at this range here, right? If this thing could just get above this range. Again, everything is out of the way. The delivery numbers are out of the way. The AI event is out of the way. The earnings are out of the way. So now it's just functioning organically. So if this thing could just get above the range here in the next couple of days, maybe if Apple wakes up, this wakes up, everything wakes up. Look at Nvidia still underneath supply, right? Still underneath supply. And again, it's trying to push through every single day, trying to push through, trying to push through, doesn't have a lot of luck yet. But if they could just get above this channel as well, maybe everything wakes up as well. And again, if they all wake up or they don't wake up, and that's kind of the whole point. The group that is unlike any other group in the market is beta names, technology. If one go, they all go. If one dies, they all die. That's kind of like, it's one of those band of brothers type of situation. And that's kind of where we are. So what we're going to need to see over the next day or so, and that's the whole thing. We don't know how long distribution is going to last, or at least digestion of recent gains. But if we can get a good digestive cycle the next 24, 48 hours, and we don't sell off, right? And if we don't sell off, then I think the NASDAQ finally goes through. But again, as long as you know your levels, and this is the most important part, as long as you know your levels, right? The upside 28460, the downside 272, as long as you know your two levels here, you don't have to guess, you don't have to think, and you don't have to have, you know, a series of opinions for different people. It's all about levels, and when, and they do confirm. So going into tomorrow, look, is it possible we do have one more slower day? It's possible. It really is. It definitely is possible. I think we'll find some names. Again, the idea that meta broke down, its earnings lows probably continues lower. So that's obviously going to be on watch. We saw some, you know, pretty aggressive short term, you know, 90, 95, 90, 95 puts coming in, right? 90, 95 puts coming in short term on Amazon. That's bearish, right? I'm going to watch this thing to the bottom channels if it doesn't get pulled up in the next few days. Google, you know, they were coming for $90 puts, short term, you know, short term. So the idea that everything is going to rally at the same time, it's a really good novel idea. And I'd love to see that happen because everything goes, everything's going to go. But the point is the NASDAQ names are still trying to get their heads above water. They're still trying to fight back. We're still in the middle of the range, not at the top, not at the bottom. And the question is what gives? Can Apple get a second line of life and kind of bring everything up like it did last Friday? Or is the four horsemen of meta, right? Google, Amazon and Microsoft going to say, you know what, now we're good. We're going to go lower to be determined. And that's the whole point to be determined as well. So, you know, that's it, you know, that's kind of my spiel and I'm sticking to it. Sometimes you have to take a breather. Sometimes you have to take a step back. Like I've always said, you can have the most aggressive, high performance vehicle on the planet, right? Like a Bugatti or something. But you're not going to drive it 100 miles an hour in midtown Manhattan rush hour traffic and Times Square. Just not. And that's the most important part. When you're a trader, new trader, veteran trader, whatever trader you are, okay, learn to scale back when the market rests, you rest. When the market pushes, you push. And that's kind of the law of attraction. And that's kind of the way I've been trying to do things for the latter part of 23 years. So guys, have a great night, everybody. Let's see how long the distribution kind of lasts for the next several days. We're obviously watching a lot of names that blew up to continue for weakness. We'll see if they could take down today's channels. We're watching Tesla to the upside. We're watching continuation possibly for Apple. We're going to watch the video for the next couple of days as well. All right, everybody. Have a great night. Stay safe. Happy Halloween. And I will see you all tomorrow.