 Before Sunday's race, I had a feeling that I generally only get before the Daytona 500 where it's this weird blend of being excited, nervous, and anxious, all it was just because we hadn't seen racing in a really long time and I just wanted to see it back on the track. And Sunday's race came through. It lived up to those expectations. It was a really fun race. I think that NASCAR did a good job of acknowledging the weird moment that we're in and trying to account for all that wonkiness and they gave us a really good product and importantly a fun distraction for a couple of hours. And now we get to do it again on Wednesday with the Toyota 500k as NASCAR is back in Darlington once again, which means we have DFS to discuss as well. We'll do all that right now. Let you know which drivers you should play. Welcome on into the heat check fantasy podcast powered by Number Fire. That's right here on the FanDual Podcast Network and NumberFire.com. My name is Jim Soddus. I am a senior writer and analyst for NumberFire.com here to break down NASCAR DFS for the Toyota 500k on Wednesday in Darlington. Now we are just discussing Wednesday's race for today with lock set at 7.30 p.m. on Wednesday. If you're looking for the podcast around the Coca-Cola 600, that will be coming up later this week on I believe Thursday at 10 a.m. We're going to record that podcast and we'll go up here and eventually up on the FanDual YouTube page as well. So make sure you check back subscribe to the YouTube page for that and subscribe to the NumberFire Daily Fantasy Podcast feed to get each of these podcasts as they go up. We're going to have one for that. We'll have an additional one for the Wednesday race at Charlotte. Another one for the Bristol race, the following Sunday. So a lot of NASCAR content coming up for you here on the NumberFire Daily Fantasy Podcast feed. Sports slowly start to come back, but it should be an awesome string of races. And I am pumped to see the action once again on Wednesday. We're going to break that down in just one second at first. The sports world continues to be at a standstill, but FanDual is giving you an opportunity to win it from home with their free prox props pick-up contest. All you have to do is correctly pick five props each day and go at least 25 out of 35 over the course of the week to split the $2,500 weekly payout. Then get back in on the action next week. It is that easy. Age and location restrictions apply, no purchase necessary, void where prohibited. For more details, visit www.FanDual.com or check out the win from home banner in the FanDual lobby. Let's go through the track breakdown here for Wednesday's race. And it's going to be a very different race than what we saw on Sunday. The three key differences are the length of the race, the way they set the starting order, and the information we have at our disposal for this race. And those three things will be key points in dictating how we build lineups for DFS. Let's start things off here by discussing the length of the race. Sunday's race, the one we just saw, was 293 laps. That meant there were 29.3 FanDual points available for laps led. And that's a pretty respectable number above average for a 400 mile race at a 1.5 mile track. So longer than you'd expect. Wednesday's race is only 228 laps. That is 22.8 FanDual points for laps led. And that's a pretty big difference. When there are fewer laps to be led, it means that there is less upside for drivers starting at the front of the pack. Finishing points are still very valuable, but the upside conversation skews more toward the back when there are fewer laps to run. The number of laps alone, if we're looking at that from a strategy perspective, that would encourage us as target drivers starting further back because they can generate the same amount of upside via place differential points that they'd have in any other race. So with the laps led alone, it's encouraging us to skew towards the back. That is hyper convenient as the starting order procedure for Wednesday also encourages us to stack the back. The top 20 finishers from Sunday's race were inverted. Kevin Harvick won, so he will start 20. Alex Bowman finished 2nd, he will start 19th, etc. etc. That means the fastest cars, the best finishing cars from Sunday's race will be starting in the middle of the pack. That is huge. That means that drivers starting at the front aren't necessarily the fastest, which is the case more often than not in NASCAR. That makes it a lot easier for drivers starting further back in the pack to work their way forward in a hurry. The other starting procedure here is that 21st through 40th will basically start where they finished unless there are new drivers who were not entered on Sunday, race on Wednesday, so a couple drivers moved up. But outside of that, they're largely starting where they finish. Any drivers who had issues on Sunday will be starting in the back on Wednesday. And we've got three really good drivers who will be back there to start. They will have monster upside via place differential. That's the exact type of driver we should be targeting in this type of event where the race is shorter. So basically what we have here is the convergence of two things that both point us toward one strategy. That strategy is stacking the back of the pack. And that is exactly how we should play things here in general. If you're playing things straight up and not trying to pivot in tournaments, you want to favor drivers starting further back. And we'll go through some drivers who fit that later on. The third thing that is different on Wednesday from Sunday is information. And we've got the goods here now, whereas we did not on Sunday. Entering Sunday, we had not seen the drivers on the track in two months. So it was hard to know how things would have changed in that time. Now, not only do we have a recent race, but it was at the exact same track. We don't get the opportunity often in NASCAR DFS. I don't know the last time it happened. It would be in the 70s, I'd assume. The racing we saw on Sunday might be the best indicator of what to expect in an upcoming race that we'll get for a very, very long time. So what we want to do is be aggressive in applying what we saw Sunday to building lineups for Wednesday. Now, that's the key is we do want to look at the information that we saw on Sunday and use it for Wednesday. There is a word of caution with that, though. The word of caution is that finishing position is always going to be deceptive. For example, Jimmy Johnson almost won the opening stage. He was really fast. He finished 38th. William Byron did win the opening stage after Johnson wrecked. He finished 35th. Kyle Busch had a tire vibration late and finished 26th. So we can't look at finishing position to decide straight up who was best in that race on Sunday. So I'd say if you get a chance, try to go back and watch the race if you can. You can usually find NASCAR does a good job of putting up 15-minute recaps on the NASCAR YouTube page sometimes. So I'd watch that. Take 15 minutes to get a good feel for who was faster in the race because that can tell you who we should expect to be fast on Wednesday. But otherwise, looking at who did well in each stage, focusing on stats like average running position, driver rating, that can give you pretty good intel on whom we should expect to be fast on Wednesday. So finishing position is not going to be your best data when deciding who will be good on Wednesday. One final thing to note is that Wednesday's race has some funky weather in the forecast. It looks like there is a good chance of rain and NASCAR drivers don't run in the rain unless they're on a road course. The NASCAR rule is that a race can be called if they have finished the second stage or half of the scheduled laps. So that means that if they were to get to lap 114 on Wednesday, the race would be official. They could call it at that time. If it doesn't go the full distance, that will cut the time that drivers have to make up ground in half. And it's going to cut things down for sure. But I would take the same strategy regardless. I think that's more applicable for betting than it is for DFS. A couple of reasons why I'd keep the same strategy is that a shorter race just makes it more imperative to get outside via place differential. And also I wouldn't expect passing to take too long here. William Byron started 16th basically on Sunday. He was in the top 10 almost right away and he actually won the opening stage. And that was at lap 90. And there would still be 24 more laps after that. So guys like Harvick and Bowman starting in the middle of the pack, they could very easily be at the front by lap 114. And again, it's cutting down the number of laps available for drivers at the front. So I would not let this change strategy too much. It's something to consider. And I think again, it's more relevant for betting than it is for DFS. So recapping here strategy is stack the back. It's going to be very similar to Daytona where you target explicitly driver starting further back with a big place differential upside, especially drivers who were fast but at issues on Sunday. And then see who was fast on Sunday. Try to pinpoint drivers who had really good cars and maybe in position to make up ground or potentially be contrarian place as well if they didn't finish as well as they could have based on how fast that car was. So overall the main takeaway here is that you want to stack the back when you're building lineups on Sunday. Talk about a couple of exceptions in the tier by tier breakdown. Speaking of which, let's do that just now and break down the top fan dual place in each tier starting off with Kevin Harvick at $13,200 through Brad Keselowski at $12,000 for the elite tier. And there are two standouts for cash games in this tier. Those guys are Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch. Harvick won the race on Sunday. Obviously that means he'll be an elite option and elite driver. He's starting 20th. And with Harvick starting 20th, it means he has big upside and a big floor. Kyle Busch, he finished 26th, which means that he will start right there. And Busch was not as good as Harvick during the race. He did struggle at times, but he also showed the ability to make up ground. I don't think it was entirely his fault that he finished as poorly as he did. I think both of those drivers are in play for cash games. Harvick is the best option in that tier. Busch would be more of a pivot off of Kevin Harvick. Denny Hamlin is starting 16th. He finished fourth in that race and he had a sixth place average running position. So straight up, he was better than Busch. And I think that both Busch and Harvick are going to get attention because they're starting further back and because Harvick won the race. But Denny Hamlin actually finished fifth, not fourth. But I think that Hamlin is definitively third in this group. But I think they're all at least in play for cash games. I would put Hamlin below Harvick and Busch. But if you're looking for a tournament pivots that it still fits our process, Denny Hamlin can be that guy. So it's Harvick, Busch, Hamlin, but all three very viable. Within this tier, I want to make a special note that Joey Logano is really interesting for tournaments. He is starting third. So from a process perspective where we want to stack the back, Logano doesn't fit that. He's not going to get us placed differential upside. But we're getting good finishing potential and we're getting the possibility he can lead a bunch of laps. If we're looking at my betting model, Logano ranked second in my model. And the only guy ahead of him is Kevin Harvick. Ryan Blaney and Brad Keselowski are the only other drivers in the top 10 of my model who are starting this race in the top 13. Basically what that means is that there is a gap in speed between Joey Logano and other drivers starting at the front of the pack. Ryan Blaney, not very good at Darlington, really struggled Sunday so I'm off of him. Keselowski pretty similar to Logano where he could be a pivot but he's starting eighth whereas Logano is starting third. So Logano is a deviation from our process, yes. But he has upside via lap sled. He has the potential to win this race. He could get out front, hold the track position the entire race and finish well. That potential is even more pertinent when we have the possibility of some rain to shorten this race. So I think that if we're talking about pivots and tournaments, Joey Logano is a standout there. Brad Keselowski also in play there starting back in eighth. But overall, I would put Harvick followed by Bush in this tier but Logano and Keselowski really intriguing tournament targets if you want to get away from the default build for this race. Let's move now to the second tier on Fandall. That is Chase Elliott at $11,700 through Jimmy Johnson at $10,000. In this tier, we have Chase Elliott, Martin Truex Jr. and Alex Bowman all starting in the same range together. That means that all three drivers finished well on Sunday because they all finished in the top six. But Bowman had the best car in this group by a pretty wide margin. He had a third place average running position which is just tremendous for a race. Truex did get a lot better as the race went along. He got caught up in an accident on lap one, had a hole in his front that really messed up his handling and he plummeted throughout the race. Once they got that patched up, Truex is really good and he was up near the front once they got that sorted out. But in this tier, in this middle group, I'm going to put Bowman highest. I think that the car finishing second on Sunday was no fluke. He also dominated in Fontana which is another track that has heavy tire fall off. He could have won in Las Vegas which is another intermediate track. So Bowman has been good at all three races similar to this one. Almost one on Sunday is starting 19th. I think he is the standout in this tier. I'll put Truex second because he did show that upside once his car got right and then Chase Elliott will be third. But this is kind of similar to the Bush-Harvick-Hamlin discussion where all three are legitimately good options. I just happen to have Bowman first and I think that he is one of the better plays in this entire race from a DFS perspective. The final guy in this tier is Jimmy Johnson at $10,000 and if I were building a cash game lineup, he might be the first driver I'd lock in Johnson is starting 38th or 37th I should say which is not a good indicator of how fast he was. As we discussed in the track breakdown he was actually leading this race on Sunday. He was going to win the opening stage had he not crashed. That crash was partially self-inflicted so it's not as if you know it's just some terrible luck but he has had speed other times this year. I think that when you're looking at drivers in this field Jimmy Johnson is the best floor for cash games because of where he's starting and he showed on Sunday that he has a big ceiling too. So for cash games Jimmy Johnson is a lock. I would also look to be overweight on him in tournaments relative to the field. It's going to be tough because he will be the floor ownership I put on Jimmy Johnson is like 55% and I'd be shocked if he were that low. He could be he could push 70%. That's how good of a play he is. I would not be opposed to going overweight on him given that assumption. Let's move now to the mid-range on FanDuel that is Eric Jones at $9800 through Matt Di Benedetto at $7800. I've mentioned that Johnson will be one of the first drivers I lock into cash game rosters in the previous tier and the same is true of his teammate William Byron here. Byron is 9000 which is 1000 cheaper than Johnson but it's a similar story. He was awesome early on on Sunday's race. He actually won that first stage after Johnson crashed. Then Byron was trying to run down Denny Hamlin later on got loose, hit the wall, ruined his car and he finished 35th. He will start 34th on Wednesday but he has a speed to push for a win and he has massive place differential upside. So you're going to have a similar build to a lot of people if you lock in both of these drivers but I'd still be wanting to do it and then look to differentiate elsewhere because straight up these are the two best plays in the entire field there is no question about that they are the best plays no matter what. You could leave salary on the table you could use a pivot like Joey Logano or something else but these guys are going to be chalked for a reason I'm willing to swallow it because they are that good from a process perspective for this race. Now if you're looking for a pivot within this tier I think that's Kurt Busch. Kurt Busch is starting 18th so the floor for him not as good as Byron back in 34th but Kurt Busch is starting 18th because he was so good on Sunday he finished third in that race he has now had a top nine average running position in four straight Darlington races he has had top six finishes in three straight races this year so track history current form both very much in Kurt Busch's favor Kurt Busch is $9,400 he is $400 more than William Byron so you can pay up to be contrarian but the thing that I like about Kurt Busch a lot is that he is sandwiched between William Byron and Jimmy Johnson who again are going to be the chalk of this field so Kurt Busch could go a bit overlooked despite finishing third on Sunday so the same line of thinking does apply to Eric Jones he's $9,800 starting 13th I don't mind him at all but Busch to me is the best way to pivot off of William Byron and I will be going that route plenty I think that you know in the lines where I don't have Byron I'm gonna have Busch pretty often maybe you build the same lineup once with Busch once with Byron leave $400 on the table I am very okay with playing things that way the other guys in this tier are all starting at the front and it's hard to find drivers you want to use there but I'm still willing to use Clint Boyer he is starting fourth so Clint Boyer is not going to be a good cash gameplay but he did have a 9th place average running position on Sunday Boyer also ran well in Homestead at the end of last year it's another track where you have to run a similar line so good at Homestead good at Darlington on Sunday starting at the front which means he could be a driver who could jump out and lean left the other big advantage that Clint Boyer has is that he's starting fourth which means he will start on the outside lane and the outside lane very much the the preferred groove at Darlington if you listen to the positive regression podcast with Alan Kavana and David Smith they went in depth on that on their podcast last week Boyer is starting fourth I think that either he or Legano is going to lead laps early in this race could be Boyer and you don't need a ton of upside for a guy at $8,400 to pay off so Boyer not a cash gameplay it's Byron there but I think that for tournaments you could consider Kurt Busch as a pivot but it also gives some thought to Clint Boyer at $8,400 he thinks that he is a sneaky potential winner for this race we'll talk more about that later on the value tier on Fandall is Chris Buscher at $7,300 through Austin Dillon at $6,500 and this is the tier where we find Tyler Redick Tyler Redick is $6,700 and starting 14th which means that he finished seventh on Sunday which was a crazy good run for Tyler Redick but it actually could have been even better he was running near the front of the pack in the middle of that race then he had a pit road penalty and dropped to the back that meant that after working his way forward at the start of the race because he started 29th worked his way forward he was 8th at the end of the first stage he had to go back and do it again and work his way forward a second time he did just that and finished seventh there were times in the race where Tyler Redick had the fastest car on the track he was really good at Darlington in the Xfinity series he was good at Homestead in the Xfinity series a two-time champion in the Xfinity series at that Homestead championship race and there was some risk here because he's starting 14th and that's pretty high for a driver who is 6700 dollars but I still think he can finish better than where he's starting and when a driver is 6700 dollars if you get a top 10 finish out of them you don't really care where they're starting that's what we have with Tyler Redick so I would say that he is still a building block for this race even though he is not starting in the back Tyler Redick awesome run on Sunday really good speed talented driver and good enough equipment so I think that him starting 14th at 6700 dollars I am still going to be turning his way once again on Sunday Chris Buscher is kind of the more process-based play because he's back in the back of the pack starting 32nd at 7300 dollars and Sunday was a day to forget for him he was involved in that Jimmy Johnson crash but that was because Johnson was trying to lap Chris Buscher and then Buscher's car was just junk after that so unlike Johnson and Byron the finishing position for Chris Buscher was a bit more representative of how good his car actually was he was running around 24th to 25th before the Johnson crash so he was batting before that but this is a new race which means Chris Buscher gets a reset he will get a new car on Wednesday from what he had on Sunday his teammate Ryan Newman ran pretty well during the race and they can take some of the knowledge they learned from Newman and apply it to Buscher's car try to make that one better Buscher was also good at Darlington in previous years while he was in worse equipment so yeah he sucked on Sunday and that's a pretty big concern because we do want to put stock in what we saw but I am still willing to go here with him starting 32nd we'll see how it goes but I do think that Chris Buscher is still in play for cash games I used him in cash on Sunday it did not work out but I think that he is in play for that once again on Wednesday other guys I like in this range are Matt Kenseth and Cole Custer Kenseth looked really good on Sunday I was very, very often did not have a single, single share on Sunday he had not run a single lap in this package at any track before the green flag dropped but he finished 10th he had a 14th place average running position so it is risky because he's starting 11th and I would very much prefer Reddick but Kenseth could be a pivot off of Reddick starting in this same range Cole Custer a little bit more flexibility because he's starting 22nd he was running really well early on in that race and he's got good equipment he is teammate to Kevin Harvick and Clint Boyer and Eric Almarola he won in Darlington in the Xindy D series last year kind of on a technicality because Denny Hamlin got disqualified but it still counts it wins-win he would have finished 2nd regardless so Cole Custer good at Darlington in the past starting 22nd cheap salary at $6,800 but I think that I would rank Custer below Reddick and Buscher same thing for Kenseth but both those guys are options to rotate in as you're filling out your tournament rosters the punting tier on Fandals Ricky Stenhouse Jr at $6,400 on down and Stenhouse will start dead last in theory that should make him a play I'm still really hesitant and the reason that I'm hesitant to buy in here even though from a process perspective you should make sense is that Darlington is a track that emphasizes driver talent and it requires a very unique skill set so when a guy consistently struggles there it's going to flash off some warning signs for you Stenhouse crashed on the first lap on Sunday he has finished better than 18th just once in his Cup Series career at Darlington and that was in better equipment than what he currently has so I'm going to have some shares Ricky Stenhouse Jr but I don't want to and I'd much rather snag the guys in the tier above this first I'm going to go there at times it will not be a whole lot but he does make sense so I'm going to go there every now and then I just don't feel good about it and I'm going to try to go there as as rarely as possible I guess is what I'd say you could also consider Christopher Bella at $6,000 he had a 20th place average running position on Sunday he's starting 24th so that's not the best sell but only three drivers with salaries below $6,500 had a top 20 average running position one of those was Bell two others were John Hunter Nemechek and Ryan Priest Nemechek is starting 12th and Priest is on the pole Bell had probably topped my list there I'm not entirely opposed Nemechek as I turned my gamble because I mean he's he was really good he earned that high end finish on Sunday but this tier is kind of unappealing so to me I want to try to stay in the Busher Redick Kenseth Custory range as often as possible because it does get pretty dicey once you get beneath there but I think that you can do it salaries are pretty flat for Sunday because of the shorter race so I think they should be able to do it and I would try to do so when you can let's finish up here with our picks to win for Darlington again the way this works is I pick one driver above $10,000 on FanDuel I think can win and one below it and we're going to pick guys who are starting in the exact same row that is the second row of Joey Logano and Clint Boyer Logano the guy above $10,000 again ranked second in my model behind Kevin Harvick before accounting for starting position and nobody else really in his tier from a speed perspective so Logano I pick to win above $10,000 Boyer is the pick below it a really good car on Sunday if you look at drivers who had a top 10 ever droning position Boyer is the only one with betting odds longer than 18 to 1 and he's at 42 to 1 so I like that I think he's a good contrarian play for tournaments too just because the finishing potential is there probably not going to carry any ownership at all so my picks for this this Wednesday race Joey Logano and Clint Boyer fingers crossed that there is no rain because that would really put a damper on things quite literally but also on the momentum NASCAR generated with that race on Sunday either way I'm excited to see how this thing plays out whether it be on Wednesday or on Thursday hopefully it's on Wednesday because for Thursday they kind of throw a wrench in our podcast planning plans but we'll figure that out once we get there that is all that we have for today once again though make sure you are subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast Apple podcast Spotify Stitcher the Google Play Store iHeart Radio you name it you can find us there and if you like what you hear please leave a rating interview as well because that does help us out quite a bit big thank you to Calvin Theobald he is our video producer one of the video side of things here today and chopping up the clips for the Fandil Twitter account thank you Cal as always and thank you to everyone for tuning in I hope that Sunday went well for you from a DFS perspective and I hope that Wednesday or Thursday goes well also we'll talk to you again soon next week right here once again this has been the heat check fantasy podcast powered by number fire