 There's a reason why Xtrades is currently the fastest growing application on the market for sharing financial ideas. With over $2.5 million paid in the last two years to contributors, users are flocking to see what trades the top traders on the leaderboard are sharing in real time. If you're looking to grow your reputation as a trader on the internet, or disgust your trading ideas with other reputable investors, click the link below and get connected with the trading mentor today, completely free of charge. What's up everybody? This is Alex from Xtrades and welcome back to another weekly trade ideas list. I hope everybody had a wonderful trading week last week. It's a pretty crazy week in the stock market. If you're tuned in last week, most of our setups were kind of mixed. SMH didn't exactly work out, I guess there was a couple days you could have scalped it on the gap ups to the downside, but otherwise I didn't open anything on SMH that was new. TLT had a pretty good run up. We actually grabbed some April calls on the dip Monday. This ran up to 24% and are going higher right now, holding a small partial position in that because there's more room to run in my opinion. And then being why we started a long-term position in that added on the first red day that it got last week and just holding that for the long term, looking to collect the dividend. So it's pretty mixed last week. I would say TLT is probably the only good winner and we were able to close out the contracts on that and I alerted my exit on the Xtrades app. But hopefully this week we'll have some pretty good setups, maybe a little bit better than last week. But before we get into any setups, any charts, let's go over the economic calendar real quick. This week we do have a couple big data sets actually. So Tuesday you're going to want to pay attention to ISM services at 10. And then it looks like Fed Vice Chair Barr is also speaking twice, once at 12 and once at 3.30. Wednesday could end up being a pretty important day. We have Powell actually testifying in Congress. And the last couple of times he testified in Congress, we actually did have some mid-session volatility. There was a lot of whipsaw, lots of big range moves. So we'll have that at 10 a.m. And then also at the same time we do have job openings come out. So we have the Joltz job openings at 10 a.m. Exactly at the same time that Jerome Powell comes out to testify. So that should be interesting. And then a couple Fed speakers. We got Dolly and Kashkari both speaking that day. And then Thursday we do have Powell testifying again at 9.40. We also have Loretta Mester speaking, another Fed member, and consumer credit at 3. And then on Friday we do have the big data sets. It's going to be non-farm payrolls. This is the big one of the week. So non-farm payroll is going to be number one, Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaking Wednesday and Thursday, probably going to be important as well. So your non-farm payrolls, your Joltz job openings, and your Fed Chair Jerome Powell testifying two days in a row is going to be your most important data sets of the week, most important events. So pay attention to it. It's going to be an interesting week. And on two seasonality, which we have been defying, we haven't had that bearish seasonality for February. Even last week we were supposed to average a relatively big dip, I would say. I mean, in the last 20 years, the summarized profit last week was 11%. So if you shorted every year from this period last week, 20 years in a row, you would have profited 11% because it's usually so bearish. One thing it did only have though was a pretty much a 50% chance based off the last 20 years. You had 10 winners, 10 losers. If you went short from that period last week, 20 years in a row. This week we actually have a little bit of an increase. It's still pretty bearish. We have 55% winning trades to the downside. So if you shorted from March 4th to March 8th, the last 20 years, you would have 11 gains, nine losses with a summarized profit of 14%. So the winner is made up for the losers. But like I said, it is only 55%. So the market didn't just go down every single year for the last 20 years. It was a little bit over a 50-50 chance. So that is one thing you want to keep in mind when looking at seasonality. It's not just going to follow it through the tee every single year. Market conditions change, things change, and volatility changes as well. This year, we really haven't had any expanded volatility to kind of set up for this big move down in February. And usually the last half of February is about the worst of the best six months of the stock market. And we did not get that at all, except for maybe a couple of days. The Nasdaq did pull back about 4% from its highs before we made new highs. So it did get a pullback in this area. It just didn't last very long at all. Pretty much after Nvidia earnings, everything went out the window and we've kind of been consolidating and just going up since maybe a couple of small red days on the daily bars, but otherwise just consolidation heading up for a move higher. Still holding all the moving averages. And we'll go over that later on QQQ and spy. Nothing has really changed. That's your seasonality for this week, March 4th to March 8th. You got a 55% chance the last 20 years with about 11 gains. Nine losses if you went short for this period. So so I would say you have a little bit over a 50-50 chance this week to see maybe a little pullback. It wouldn't surprise me after this big breakout. If we saw some type of short-term consolidation or maybe a mini pullback before trying to make another leg, it's not just going to go in a straight line all the time. You do kind of get those micro pullbacks to set up for another move to the upside. All right, not to the setups for this week. We do have three. I got GDX, CCL and DVN here. All calls to the upside. It's really hard to find value areas in this market right now, especially when you have the indexes at all time highs. Sometimes you got to go down and find stuff that's a little bit cheaper. And right now, GDX, CCL and DVN are all breaking out short-term downtrend line. So we'll get into that now. You see GDX here. You have a test one, a test two, little test three rejection on this one, little small bar and now trying to break out of that. Probably due to gold going higher on Friday, as well as the DXY going a little bit lower. The DXY has been trending up for about a month or two and gold kind of hit a consolidation point. It's been kind of weak while the DXY has been going higher and just recently DXY starting to go a little bit lower. And we are kind of starting to see a bid in metals. So as you can see, the miners are kind of a choppy trade, right? You're probably going to want to buy a lot of time on your contracts for this. If you're going to swing trade it, as you can see, it doesn't just go up in a straight line. You have a lot of foolery, lots of pullbacks back and forth before trying to leg higher. And you might still get that going forward. So there's your supply right there. So a little rally base drop might even be a drop base drop. If you look at the more bigger structure here, but this is indeed a pretty big bullish candle that led to big selling. So something happened in this candle to lead to this downside. That's why you want to go ahead and market to maximum. I can probably see it move up to that. I would have to see how it reacts once it gets up to supply there. If we add in the 50 and 200 EMA here, you can see we're trending under both. That's probably why it's been kind of struggling. You can see a pull up into the 50 right here in the supply zone that it made. Once we put in that lower low right there, that's when the supply zone is created. You also had a big 50 EMA rejection right here. So you will need to watch that 50 EMA maximum. I could probably see it getting back up to the 200 EMA. You could look at that as resistance as well. It will need to start closing over this 50 eventually, though, in order for the trend to keep going. Otherwise, right now you are trending under both and you do need to be mindful of that. So maybe you buy lots of time on your contracts. Let it deal with drawdown risk, any foolery that you get. Metals are kind of a stressful trade sometimes. I mean, they don't just go in a straight line. It takes a lot of consolidation, a lot of lagging, a lot of accumulation to kind of get going. Unless you are in a very extreme market where you will get big moves on the DXY to go down and you'll see that big move up in metals and the miners. So GDX looking at calls, maybe further out expiration. You want to be careful to deal with drawdown risk. As you can see, doesn't just go up in a straight line. You will get pullbacks. You will get kind of get shake out stuff like that before trying to make a move higher. But this breakout looks pretty good as well as you got the KDGA positive up here. So escalator is curling up and green right now. We'll need to get over that 50 to get to the 200. And going on to CCL here, you can see we have a test one, a test two, a test three downtrend. Now breaking out of that, probably because of NCLH earnings. So Norwegian had a pretty good report. They've been going up. CCL really hasn't seen that big of a move as NCLH, but it is kind of getting in a little bit of momentum here as well as you do have the 200 EMA holding as support or a reversal area. You do have a slight close over the one day 50 EMA probably needs another close or two or something more obvious to kind of bring people in for more buying. And they do have earnings, I believe, on the 21st. So this probably will just be a play up into earnings after earnings. You know, you kind of got to figure out what you want to do on your own because it's totally random and I can't really give a projection for earnings because it's totally random. I mean, it can go either way and technical analysis can get invalidated regardless of good earnings or bad earnings. It's all about guidance and really it can go anywhere. So as long as the guidance is good, it can go higher. Even if it's a bad report, if they got higher, you can still see us thought go up, even if they reported below estimates on EPS or revenue. If their guidance is good, it could still go up. If their guidance is bad, it can still go down, even if they had a good report. So that's the downside about earnings. If you really do want to hold through a report, which I mean, if you're going to hold something long term, you're going to have to hold through ER reports by lots of time on your options or just by shares for options, you probably want to go six months minimum. Maybe even a whole year out. They are much less volatile. You can deal with drawdown risk. So if you're wrong on the report, it'll give you time to recover. Come back up, you'll have, you know, six months to a year for your thesis to play out still. Sometimes you just need time to deal with drawdown risk because you're not always going to get a perfect entry. At least 90% of the time, maybe even more, whatever you enter, stock and option, it's going to dip below your entry, even if it's just a little bit. So you got to be prepared for that. Start small by lots of time. If you have to add in later, once it gets some strength, whatever you got to do to lessen risk and make it easier for your psychology. So CCL, looking at calls here. Nice breakout. There is a short term resistance point right here. It's going to be at 1724. So maybe we can get a move up to that and just want to be careful going into earnings. So looking at calls, looking pretty good. Nice breakout, holding up nice. Maybe another close over the 50 EMA. You can see a nice shoot up here. All right, next, we're going into DVN. This is a energy company. So it's really going to want to move with oil, the XLE ETF. You want to pay attention to both of those. You can look at the crude oil futures. You can track the XLE ETF, whatever you got to do. It's good to pay attention to the whole sector because they kind of move all the same, almost, except for maybe a couple. So DVN, it's a pretty obvious breakout here. You got to test one, a test two. You had a small test three rejection, nothing big. Came down to 43. And now trying to break out just a little bit, but it's kind of struggling on this breakout. You haven't really seen any big follow through yet. And I feel like that maybe could be setting up for a bigger move and you still have some room here to retrace up. Obviously, it would go invalid. If you started breaking back under, even if it started closing back under 43.36, which is this little resistance point right here, you could probably start looking at something else at that point. If it starts closing under that, closing under the downtrend line, et cetera. You also have multiple closes back over the 50 EMA here. Here's your 50 held a support right here. So that's a good sign. You could use that as your risk off as well. If it starts closing back under the 50, you can start looking at something else. So as long as it's holding over this 50 and closing over that 50, I feel like there's still some room up to the 200. And you just use the 200 as your resistance point or as your price target. And they did get earnings out of the way. So that's good. And sometimes stocks after earnings, they do need a little bit to kind of consolidate before making a move after earnings. Not every single stock's just gonna go in a straight trend either down or up. After earnings, it might take a week. It could take a couple of weeks. Sometimes if it has a good enough report, you'll see it go up straight away. Continue that for a week straight. It all just depends. But lots of times you will see stocks kind of stall out after earnings. So DVN looking at calls, breakouts, pretty obvious. You have closes over the 50, closes over that 43, 36. Once it started closing over that 43, 36, it did confirm a double bottom. So it needed to close over this to confirm that. And we do have that confirmed, as well as some room up to the 200 EMA. And you can see the 200 EMA is pretty strong resistance back here. You got a big rejection and a big rejection. So you will want to watch that 200 EMA if price gets up to it. You'll want to see oil coming up, actually coming up the whole sector. That will give you a push in DVN more than likely. All right. And on to the indexes, we'll go over the spy first. So it's pretty much been the same thing as all the other weeks. We are still holding the one day, nine and 21 EMA combo. I've basically mentioned every single week, you do want to add this to your chart because it's the most simple way of reading a trend. And you will know how long this trend lasts as long as it's holding over. Once it starts breaking under, you can start looking at puts, start being a little bit more cautious on longs because you know that your trend is broken. And we've basically been writing it this whole time. You have a test here, a test here, test here, test here, here, here. And a pretty close test right here, but I usually like to add directly at the moving averages. It makes everything a little bit easier and you are getting a pretty good entry. As you see every single test near the 21 or nine, you do get follow through to the upside. And you can see the bigger bounces are usually closer to the 21 for this one, for this one, a little bit closer to the 21 here. You got it directly off the 21 right here, directly off the 21 right here. So you won't always get a direct test. Obviously like this, this is just consolidation. Obviously it got close enough to the nine for people to feel confident and it pushed up for another high. We still do have this big gap below. Eventually that's probably going to want to get filled, but right now we haven't tested that gap area. So there really hasn't been any thought to see that flush down because we really haven't tested the support area or the structure low. So nothing's really changed. It's all still the same higher lows, higher highs, close Friday with another breakout and there's really not like a good entry here or anything right. You want to be adding at the moving averages. You want to wait for it to dip into support or demand to get the most optimal entry. Right now we have demand down here at about 494. So this little drop-based rally zone, maybe even a rally-based rally. This is a nice little demand zone at the 494s that you could add at eventually if it gets down there. But otherwise really no demand zone or really anything to add at right now other than this gap support if it can get down there. Maybe this little 510 area if it can pull back into 510, you could look at a short-term back test off of that. I could probably try to hold the support there. But otherwise there's really not much here. I mean, it's not at a discount. It's not at a value area. Your short-term value areas are going to be at support, at the moving averages, at demand, somewhere not at the highs. Right now this is in a momentum phase. So if you're a momentum trader, you're usually buying high hoping to sell higher. So you trade the breakouts, you're buying into 52 week highs. That is momentum trading. So if you're more of a value trader like myself, this market really hasn't been that good for you. And really the only value areas you're getting are at the moving averages like we've been covering. So these have been your best spots to add at every single time it gets there. We also have a positive KDJ here. So bullish momentum is still good on the escalator and nothing's really changed. We also were looking at a trend line from the dot com bubble up to the 2021 highs. We are directly at that right now. I think we were looking at QQQ. There's also one on spy here. So this little line from the dot com bubble up to the 2021 peak is now a potential resistance area right here. You can see we're trying to briefly break over it, but it's nothing crazy yet. They're gonna use a trend line from the 2000s, you know, one that's like 20 years long. Probably gonna use a monthly close for the candle bars. So you really would not want to short until you get a monthly bar rejection, something obvious, maybe even a one week bar rejection off of it. As well as you probably would not wanna use this as a breakout signal either over this trend line for the daily bars. Use the one week bars, use the one month bars just because this trend line is so old. So yeah, just be careful going long spy. I mean, volatility is at low, as VIX is at the lower 13s again. Spies at 52 week high. It's really not the best entry. It's not a value area and you're probably not gonna get the best entry here unless you're just doing momentum scalps. If you're just scalping the breakouts and being flat by end of day, nothing wrong with that. But for swing trades, I would say that you wanna be adding at the moving averages like I showed you at demand and support. Another thing that really hasn't changed is trend line is still holding this uptrend from the October lows. Get a test one, a test two, basically a test three, four. You have a close back over right here. So really, you can't get too bearish till it starts breaking under that. I said that a few weeks ago as well. Anytime we're holding over this trend line, it really wouldn't be that confident through the downside. Obviously we can get a little pullbacks into it, stuff like that. But in terms of a big pullback, we're probably not gonna get that until we start breaking under that trend line. So right now, if you are shorting or really trying to open puts up here, you are trying to speculate atop. You have no confirmation of anything. This trend line from the .com bubble to the 2021 peak, you don't have a confirmed rejection at that yet. Not in the one week, not in the one month, not even on the daily and as well. You don't have a confirmed break under the trend line yet. Obviously this little brief period under this, this could have been argued as a potential setup. But then you saw it push back up into close and it closed just a little bit above it. And then we had Nvidia earnings push it back up invalidated any bear thesis, defied any bear seasonality, et cetera. So make sure you're using that 921 email combo. Make sure you're using this up trend line and make sure you're waiting for it to fall back under some levels and confirm under some levels before even trying to short. Otherwise you're just trying to call top here and it's a little bit hard to do that. Obviously you do have seasonality on your side this week. But like I said, last week is a 50-50 chance. This week you have a 55% chance the last 20 years. You have 11 out of nine trades that won to the downside last 20 years. And on to market breadth this week we do have a little bit of a change, I guess. It's nothing crazy. We still have stocks above their 50-day moving average holding a little bit low while the spot continues to make highs. So the divergence continues. We obviously had a little pushup, I guess. Like you had these four bars kind of fall through with the spy. But otherwise stocks above their 50-day are kind of still staying lower. It did reverse off this low from February 13th and recovered a little bit there. You also have it trying to come back over the moving averages here. So you have it getting back over the 50. It is over the nine, the 21 and the 200 as well. So you do have breadth trying to curl up just a little bit. You just haven't seen like a big push or follow through like you've seen on the spy which kind of makes me skeptical as well. And it's kind of my thesis the past couple weeks that why I thought a pullback could be imminent just because stocks above their 50-day were going lower while the actual index is making highs. The divergence was crazy. And as I've showed you before, usually these kind of move in tandem and they move together. When the spy goes up, stocks above their 50-day also go up. When spy goes down, stocks above their 50-day also go down. So if you're tuning in for the first time I could show you real quick. We'll get rid of these drawings here. We'll add that indicator we were just looking at. We'll go to new price scale and there we go. So as you can see, stocks above their 50-day in the orange, going higher right here. Stocks also going higher right here. We had a little short-term collapse in breadth right here and this downturn market also pulled back right there. We did that breadth stall out in this period while the market kind of pulled back a few times but also kind of just consolidated. But then when the market got a big move here stocks above their 50-day also went higher. You had a little short-term pullback in breadth and the market right here for this period. And then really when the market wanted to pull back a lot you had a very positive correlation between stocks above their 50-day and the market going lower. As you can see, it's pushing up here with breadth. Stocks above their 50-day going up. Spy also going up. Pullback right here, you got the spy going lower. Stocks above their 50-day going lower. Short-term rally, another leg lower. Short-term rally, another leg lower. And then a really big push up. This is when the market movement was the best when you had stocks above their 50-day going higher as well as the market going higher. And then ever since this January period right here we've had stocks going up while stocks above their 50-day have gone lower. Other than this short-term period right here where breadth is starting to curl up a little bit and the market also went up as well. So if you tuned in the last couple of weeks you've already gone over this a couple of times but I just wanted to show anyone knew the divergence that kind of came in. Why my thinking was the past couple of weeks we could see a little pullback maybe. Obviously we did get a couple of days like this one little day right here. Spy was down about 1.4. But otherwise since then, I mean we really haven't had any fall through with this big divergence or the market pulling back. So it defied my expectations. It's defied seasonalities, historic move. And overall I feel like a lot of people are back for that the market keeps going higher. Obviously with semis and chips it's not totally out of the ordinary. You got semis going crazy, tech going crazy, AI. You're gonna have people doubt it. People are gonna be skeptical and that's just kind of what you have to filter out. Sometimes if you have a thesis, if you're bullish this whole time you have to ignore that stuff as well as if you're a bearish in a bear market you have to ignore those short-term rallies and stuff like that's the same thing. But as you can see breadth is trying to curl up here. Market's going higher. Obviously we really don't have that good of a fall through. We still have stocks above their 50 day hanging out down here while the spy goes higher. So I'm not exactly totally convinced yet that breadth isn't the best shape. But we are kind of getting more broad widening in the market like small caps are going up. Bonds are starting to recover a little bit like the TLT last week. Also the equal way index, the S&P equal way index is also marching higher making new highs along with the spot. So that's good. That means there's a little bit more than just big tech kind of carrying the whole market but overall the concentration in large caps is crazy right now. Like the top 10 stocks make up 35% of the whole SPX index. And that's kind of an issue. The last time the concentration was that high was during the dot com bubble and that's kind of a little bit scary, right? You don't want just 10 companies only taking the market higher. You want a wide variety kind of all taking turns bringing the market higher, bringing the market lower, whatever it wants to do. And right now the concentration is just so crazy. It's hard to imagine what will happen when those top 10 stocks do wanna pull back finally. Is that gonna destroy us? Are the laggers gonna be able to make up for the downside on the top 10s? Probably some questions that everybody has. But overall last week we did have Brett starting to follow up with the market. So that's a pretty good sign. Obviously I want stocks above their 50 day pushing up more, keep going higher in order to validate this all time high move here. I feel like the market moves are the best when stocks above their 50 day are going up along with the spy. All right and last but not least we're going over the QQQ. So last week we were kind of focused on this little trend line here. So this was a dot com bubble to 2021 peak trend line. Showed you that last week and we are starting to break out of that a little bit which is interesting. Obviously we don't have a confirmed one month bar over this line yet or a one month confirmed rejection at it. But overall we are starting to get over that now. So obviously you would have to start falling back within it to see some resistance. And maybe you would wanna wait too short and wait for that signal to get back under that before doing anything. Because right now it is looking pretty bullish here. We also had the one week bar closed over so that's a pretty good sign as well. It willing to start closing back under that for this trend line to get back in play. You can see we did have a little short term rejection off of it. This was almost a 4% pullback from this to down here. So we did get a little bit of bearish February seasonality. Nothing crazy. It's mostly on tax by not so much. We did a little short term rejection there as well. So obviously price was respecting this trend line with a exact rejection offer right here. Little rejection right here. Maybe algorithms have the same line drawn. But right now the only resistance point is 440 or 439 14. That's really the only level that you can draw right now on the one day. So maybe if price could pull back into that, that could be a good back test area to try scalp off of. You can see the one day nine and 21 EMA combo unlike spy QQQ actually tapped it's nine day right here and set up for this big push up. And this big move was mostly because of semiconductors. They had a huge day on Friday. Broadcom and video AMD, they all did very well. But I hope you see why I always recommend using the nine and 21 EMA combo on the one day. You just had to buy this little spot and I set you up for a pretty good move. Obviously it's not the best spot, while we're making 52 eight highs but these little micro pullbacks and this little volatility is sometimes all you're gonna get. So you definitely wanna watch your nine and 21 EMA combo. Look at them as short term value areas. Obviously this is not an exact value area. Value areas are usually way lower. More into a major support something like this. I'll consider that a value area like this right here. Those are more value areas but you do need to use these moving averages while it's trending and respecting it. So look at these as short term value areas and then look at your horizontal lines, your horizontal lines of support as your real value areas. You also have KDJ still positive. So this actually held all week despite any consolidation or slight resistance. This KDJ did hold positive as well. I'm guessing the MACD is also still positive. So all your momentum indicators still holding bullish. You really don't have a good entry here for anything. You definitely don't wanna just long for a swing up here. Like I said earlier, your nine and 21 EMA combo, best area to add for swing trades. If you're gonna hold for a week, for a month, you usually get the best discount such your nine and 21 EMA combo or the general area. So still bullish as long as we're holding over 439 here, your 439 is your February 12th resistance. We're had this big pullback. So definitely wanna mark that price. It's probably not gonna get bearish until it starts getting under that point. So we'll need to get under 439 and also into the gap to even be slightly bearish as well as break under your nine and 21 EMA combo. You also have your trend line from the lows here. So right there, test one, test two, test three, broke under actually, reclaimed, bounced off of it right here in this exact little zone right here. So we'll need to break under that trend line again as well. If it breaks under this trend line, you probably start entering the gap or at least get close to it and you probably start breaking under your nine and 21 EMA combo as well. But you don't have any confirmation of that yet. So just use your 440 or 439. If it doesn't break under that, I would not try to short it yet. So just watch that level, watch it as support as well. If it can pull back into that, that could be a good area to add for a back test, mark your nine and 21 EMA combo areas if you have to as well. You can draw it out on your short term charts. You can look up the values on the indicator. It'll tell you the exact value and you can mark that as a level or just zoom out to your one day chart. That's what I do. And usually you'll get the best areas to add once it pulls into the EMAs. So like I said, everything's still bullish. Probably not gonna see anything change until it falls back under 439. This falls back under 439. You can start looking for that gap fill or at least the general 433s to get test as a structure low and that's about it. Otherwise I wait for a pullback or some type of micro pullback before trying to go long. Obviously this 439 area could be good as well if it can pull into that. So definitely just mark that level. That's the only level right now. Obviously we can't mark this as resistance. We don't have any confirmed candle, no rejection or anything. So your 439 is your only area of support nearby or potential support and your only area of resistance as well. So make sure to mark it. But I hope you guys enjoyed this video. Make sure you like, comment and subscribe. I know the index analysis the past couple of weeks has been a little bit tricky because we're just making 52 week highs. Hopefully you're getting value out of the reminders to just watch the nine to 21 EMA combo. Use that trend line that we've been looking at the past couple of weeks and just make sure you're marking your short term levels on the one day. Like this is a local top. Make sure you're marking that and just use your one day levels as buy zones, sell zones, whatever you gotta do. But otherwise, I mean the indexes have been a little bit harder to trade. I've been struggling a little bit day trading them lately and sometimes you need to find value elsewhere. Like we found value in TLT last week. We had Neo a couple of weeks ago as well that did pretty good. So there's still value, finding cheaper stocks that can go to the upside. You don't just have to chase these at 52 week highs, but it's a little bit harder to swing trade. And like I said, to make swing trades easier for you, use your nine to 21 EMA combos. These are gonna be your best areas to add for value, especially for overnight risk. So I love you guys. I'm gonna go ahead and get this chopped up, sent out, all that good stuff. So love you, bye.