 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The Tiger Technician Hour with your host, Basil Chapman. Call now. Call free at 1-877-927-6648. Number one, Basil Chapman. Yeah, this is the 19th of Wednesday, the 19th of October. And we're looking at the Dow down 30 at 30,494. A couple of things we need to look at because the pattern that's formed is a pattern that we've, at least for subscribers from Opening Call, we're very familiar with because every once in a while there's a chart formation that sees a very quick and sharp pullback and then a rally attempt, and that rally attempt kind of stalls, comes back and retests that left side low. Let me put this over here. I do this almost every day I've been showing it. I'm all about three patterns. Straight up, straight down, that's one. Cup formation, that's two. Arch formation, that's three. And a combination of one and two and one and three. As simple as that. But you can see this is red because when the arch formation fails, especially if it only goes to one or two peaks higher, peak A or B, I alphabetize them A to G on the way up, A to G on the way down, uppercase on the way up, meaning you're in an uptrend, downtrend on the way down, lowercase. But if it takes out that left side low, how it does that and how quickly it comes back is really important. Then if there's a break and a close above this arch formation, that is extremely important because there's a pattern that I talk about that says the lowercase H can go to a lowercase M and stall within like a rectangle. In other words, the border of that arch is the high and the border of the low is kind of the low. And then it just trades. And it's a sideways trade. It means that if you identify it, you can say sideways trading range. When you get to the top short, when you get to the bottom by and at some point you're going to be wrong. But until then that pattern will hold. But if there's a close above, so here we are. This arch formation that was made going to the high and mid-September peak A became an A minus because not only did it plunge below the 31,182 level in the doubt, it went even further. There was a little one right here and it went down sharply. But then the technical start improved and there was a much bigger arch formation. I call this the dreaded H because if it takes out that left side low, you've got to be careful on the right if it's the green because it's straight up and then it pulls back and it takes out that left side high. It's the same particulars that you look at, but that can be very bullish. Let's take this away now and we'll see how many arch formations failed in the weekly chart. This is the beginning of another potential arch formation. And there's a very large one in the monthly chart. Don't have to talk about that now. Wait until the end of the month. But in the meantime, the Dow has had this big move from 28,660 to yesterday's high. Oh, I typed it in, but I forgot to put it here. 30,837. I mean, come on. In four sessions. Well, it's pulling back mildly today. PG is helping at Procter & Gamble. Good earnings report, I guess. And what we're looking at is the MACD has rallied very nicely. The stochastic is finally getting close to 80%. That on-balance volume is still very weak. And that weakness says to me, remember, on-balance volume is the running total of whatever you're following on the particular bar that you're counting. A minute or weekly or monthly doesn't matter. But if the price you're following closes up, you add it to the running total. And if it closes down, you subtract it. Well, this is the total right here. And it says that even with a spectacular move to the upside, an actual volume starts to improve a little bit. What we're looking at is the actual on-balance volume is not. It's kind of weak. And that just says to me, we're not quite ready for prime time. The Chapman Wave inside wedge target resistance line took it out yesterday, closed under it. Oh, let me mention. So in the Chapman Wave methodology, there's a technique that I developed years ago. I can't remember if Tom interviewed Richard Arms. I think he did. He's interviewed everybody over the years. And I remember following the Arms Index. But I never always understood exactly how Richard Arms used his own index. I didn't really bother actually because I used it only in a particular way. If there was a price that intraday on the trend went above a certain level, it implied to me over the years, I got to understand that this is the way it worked, that within two days, regardless of whether the market went up or down, the S&P should have a 9 to 11 point. Now that number is starting to increase because of the big volatility, but it doesn't matter. It says a strong move in the futures should help the S&P over the next coming two sessions. But if it's very low under a certain number, then invariably the Dow, let me just go to this right here and I'll show you what I'm talking about, invariably, I don't even think I put it in yesterday. There's the short term trading index. And I have to cross it out yesterday, even though it implies that the Dow should go negative, usually early in the morning, but it could be any time during the day. And then there'll be another rally. Well, the turn was very low on Monday. And yesterday the futures were screaming that Dow went up 600 points. And then twice it came down under 200. It dropped over 400 points. So technically, what a fantastic indicator. I have to put a little X through it because it did not go negative, right? The X, even though it was fantastic. And yesterday that there was a low number as well and so forth. And last night, the futures screamed to the upside though, man. And it happens often after options expiration, the day of or the day after we get the short term trading index has a very low number. Not always, but very often, often enough to include it as a technique that I use. Well, today it worked. I couldn't believe last night I thought, oh, it's going to miss it. We're up. What was it? 30-something points in the futures overnight. And then what happens? Whoosh, we come down again. So this is a fantastic indicator. It has a 90-something percent accuracy rate. The other one has an even higher accuracy rate. But I've never made a black box to sell as something that you could put on your platform because I suspect at some point those numbers are going to change. So anyway, those are the way it is. And it's worked today. So now what we're doing is we've had the sell-off. Is it going to be intrinsic buy? Well, look at the MACD, the daily MACD. It's improving. The histogram has been strong for about, actually it's almost two weeks. And yet we still made a lower low in the H-pattern. But look how quickly it reverted from that low that was made Thursday to that huge up candle than that horrible session. This is a different thing. I'll show you in the other indices that it's a different pattern altogether. The Dow has been the strongest indices. And I think it's because it's got the Dow 30. It's not the Dow industrials anymore. It's just the Dow 30. And those 30 really make up, I love the mix of the Dow 30. Maybe there's one too many financials. It doesn't matter. All right. So the stochastic is now very close to 80%. I need that to get a buy signal. Possible upgrade immediately to a buy mode. At this point, I have to wait for the day to finish. I think I'm going to get a buy signal. And the on-line phone isn't good. It's not good. But for the first time yesterday, the nine period crossed over the 14 period moving average. That is a very good sign. So the bias now, I still say to the upside, we all want the Dow. I'll be back in a moment. Dow's up 22 S&B's down eight. We'll be right back. Are you looking for a way to consistently add winning trades to your portfolio? Tom O'Brien is here to help. Tom O'Brien has been successfully trading markets for over 30 years. A frequent contributor to TD Ameritrade Network and CNBC. Tom O'Brien founded TFNN over 20 years ago to help educate investors just like you. Tom's Daily Market Newsletter, Market Insights, is published every morning when the market's open to give you the competitive informational edge you need to succeed. These newsletters are packed full of Tom's advanced technical analysis and are geared to deliver comprehensive strategies for a successful portfolio. Get Tom O'Brien's newsletter, Market Insights, today and try all of our products and newsletters 30 days risk-free with our money back guarantee at TFNN.com. TFNN Educating Investors On stocks you need to pay attention to and you can trust Larry's analysis. After all, he's got 45 years experience as a day trader. Larry will also provide daily charts, videos, and data on the key markets that he's tracking. Expect notifications from Larry on market movement you need to act on at any time. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today. TFNN.com Educating Investors Sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders. Just visit the front page of TFNN.com. Free at 1-877-927-6648 Internationally at 727-873-7618 Hi folks, so basically what we're looking at here is that the technicals are starting to improve on the daily chart of the Dow. The S&P was a little weaker because... I typed it in the wrong place again. Every day I go to the S&P and I type in somewhere on the platform, but in the wrong place. There we go, sbx.x. The S&P, because of that very ugly candle on Friday getting more than half down the distance of the entire green bar of Thursday and then couldn't make it up on Monday, Tuesday. Yeah, Monday, but had a fabulous session yesterday. This is a leg B, and in this case, look how far the pink is still away from the black. That's the 9-period moving average is still way under the 14-period moving edge, but it pretty much will and should cross positive by Friday, maybe. In the meantime, stochastic is still way down at 56, and the magnate is just good. So this is, it hasn't taken out the left side high, and that was the high in the S&P just under 38 in the 3790s. There it is, the 3740. It's got a long way to go, and that weekly chart, you can see, it did do a 161 decline, and then just under it, it went through the 3490 wonder area and then rallied, and that monthly chart, well, we'll talk about the monthly chart later in the next week, maybe. But what we're looking at this particular point is that the S&P is lagging, but it is improving. The QQQ is exactly the same thing. It was even worse on Thursday, and then Monday, okay, yesterday was a very good day, but it closed near the low of the day, and today it's just above the black 14-period exponential moving edge. Look at the distance, and this is, it's giving us time. Now, if you think of it this way, if the stochastic goes under 20%, especially if it goes under 10%, if the marker starts to rally, normally you wouldn't get a major top, if this is going to go to a peak A and then a peak B, whoops, that's a lower case B, that should be an uppercase B. You wouldn't get a top, if it's a serious buy signal to buy mode, you wouldn't get a top until at least a peak D. That would take you to maybe 280s, we're at 272 right now, 284 is the left side high and it has to take out for me to be very convinced that this is a market that can go even higher, but the techniques are improving, they're not great, but they are improving. Look at the IWM, the Russell 2000, this is the small caps, this is the Russell 2000, IWM is the symbol, trading at 172.82 down to dollar 32. That did go to a peak B and that was over the previous arch, like the Dow, so in purely technical terms, not the monthly, not the weekly, but the daily has happened so often, the IWM can make fabulous chart formations, but the bigger tide still hasn't said that the small caps, the Russell 2000 small caps are able to lead, they might participate, but they haven't led, I would love to see them lead, I would love because that would imply that some of the screamers that I have for subscribers to my opening call, for instance, I have a whole segment that is where stocks under $10, I call them screamers because if you're able to get them exactly right, then intraday, it has to work almost immediately, I could have done it in one position, I would have had to buy it lower down because yesterday I decided I wanted it because I liked it and it was in an area that I think is going to participate okay here, kind of insurance type thing, and at the same time, I decided I want some part of it, but if it fails, I could buy it another part down, so I split the position and I say to buy it now. One of the problems I've had for some time is that some people can't trade out of market hours, but I believe almost all the platforms give you the opportunity to do that these days, I don't know why any of the platforms wouldn't, so I have to look at the price, I send out my newsletter between 8 and 8.30 in the morning, the opening call is my newsletter and the traders call is where I have all the positions, and I have to put the position that I want and if you can get it prior to the market opening, sometimes that's fantastic. Now, another thing I want to also mention in the same vein is that over the last, now it's about a year, what are we into October, I know actually it's more than a year, it's about a year and a quarter that the market has participated from about 6 in the morning, somewhere between 5.30 and 6.30, where you could possibly get the days low and hold that position all the way through the rest of the day. I mean, today might be that position, let me just check here on the e-mini, let's see AB, this is now CD and there's a brand you moved to the upside. Yeah, we've made this cup formation, but if you're looking at, where did I do that? Oh, right, oh here it is. If you're looking at the low, let me go to the 10-minute chart, that's a bit of, now the low was made at 9.30 wasn't this morning, 9 o'clock, no, just about 10 o'clock, there was a sudden move down in the e-mini and now we started to brand, you moved to the upside, there's a now leg A and I've got all the fib numbers in there, everything, I've got the Chapman wave pattern that we're looking at, it's gone above the 200 period exponential, moving average down is now up 130 SMPs of 6, kind of lagging, so all I wanted to say is that there have been times, although there was, let me see, was it yesterday? So that's in the evening, no, there it is, so that is 5 o'clock, yeah look at those big rallies, look at this rally, that occurred at 5.40 on the 22nd, there was yesterday, look at that move, I mean from 6 in the morning, around about, what was that, that was at 37.23, all the way to a peak E-top, I remember I did this online, I showed this live yesterday, that there was a left side, right side difference between the vertical lines, it was very strong at that peak D, when it made us slightly higher high, the technicals were way weaker and a pullback, so I'm just saying that there have been changes, I like to account for those changes in my tech, all the different, my myriad techniques that I've developed over the years, and one of those says that, yes I know, a lot of people say that novices trade between 9.30 and 10.30, I don't know about that, because we've had some spectacular moves and basically you can have your entire trading day getting the high of the low early in the morning, 6 to 7 o'clock in the morning, so I just wanted to say that things do change and I like to change with it as much as I can, let's get back to our story here, so we're looking at the IWM, participating a little bit today, now this is going to be a big deal, gold has pulled back very sharply, it's got like the Eiffel Tower move straight up, peak A, and it could become an A- if it fails and goes under 16, around about 16.20, and it's coming down sharply, and I've been saying, it's the same pattern that we're looking at in the weekly chart, and the monthly chart made a left side high back in July, August, and so 2021, up in the 2100 area, pulled back sharply, made a cup formation, and then made a retracement back to the high, under 21, in 2022, I think it was about February or so, February or March, and now February I think, and now we've made a lower low, and look at the technicals, how weak they were in the monthly chart, I'll be back in a moment, because we also want to look at silver, and we want to look at the dollar, dollars are strongly up 80s, 86 ticks, and 100 from 80s. I'll be back, I'll be back. To see for yourself the types of profitable trades that are recommended within the Gold Report, sign up now by visiting tfnn.com. Don't miss out on the next great gold trade. Sign up today. TFNN is excited about our new software charting program, The Art of Timing the Trade Chart. In collaboration with Tom O'Brien and using his best-selling book, The Art of Timing the Trade, your ultimate trading mastery system, David White has programmed an outstanding piece of software that will complement any trader's methodology. Using this first-of-its-kind program, The Art of Timing the Trade charts allows you to scan thousands of stocks for Fibonacci formation setups, including Gartley's, ABC's, Butterfly's, and much more. The Art of Timing the Trade charts is designed to help you when scouring the markets for stocks just beginning to form the trading patterns that many investors spend days, weeks, or even months searching to find. 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From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be, TFNN Educating Investors. Yesterday, also when I was interviewed by Tom, I was saying selectivity is really important here because you can have an individual stock and you become vulnerable to earnings news or something like that, and just at this particular point, maybe for some people, it's a little bit better getting the generic ETF, and then you can have time to start looking at stocks, because I think if we make a new recovery high in the next couple of days, that really, at least for me, is saying there's a really good chance that this market is going to now continue with hopefully higher lows and higher highs. That's the way I'm looking at it. Then you can start, but look, Generac Holdings as generators makes a peak deal in the monthly chart in the 500s, and today it has a little bit of a pullback. It's down 28 points at 119, down 20%, and this is every year I think Generac, Generac is surely, this should be winter times coming and power outages, and this is sometimes the fundamentals or your assessment doesn't quite correspond. Look at this monthly chart. It cannot close once in a year, once in two years as it closed above, no, no, I shouldn't say that, just a few times over the last year as it closed above the weekly 14-period exponential moving average, most of the time it's below. All right, so I just wanted to get that out of the way. So I said I'd look at Silver. Silver's not as bad as gold. Silver's holding very well, but they do tend to go as a sector, they do go together as the metals. But I'm kind of impressed at Silver holding like this is down 15 cents, it's 1845. I'm looking at it and saying unless it closes 17.93-ish, so far it's holding quite nicely. So we've got to look at each one separately and let's do that for the dollar. The dollar is trading up very nicely. It's up 86 cents at 112.87. It's still long, we've only taken a little bit off and I just, the dollar is the currency of the huge volumes and that means that countries and big financial institutions put money in the currencies and the dollar is a favorite. USDJPY, this is the yen. I can't believe it. This is one of those cases where you see every green wall since about early October. Every single day has been a green wall with higher highs. It's made a single leg, a single leg. It's made a leg C to the upside and it's C again today. Now the question is, well, isn't it overbought? Well, you know, it's like you're spinning the coin. USDJPY, the US dollar currency pair, price doesn't know that it's overbought. It doesn't know that it's oversold. It just is the price. The MACD is good. Stochastic is flat at 97 percent. We always say flatten in the 90 percent area. That's what you want to see. Every technical analysis should say above 80 percent is good, above 85 is better, and above 90 percent is fabulous and flat. The moment it just pops up and then comes back down, that's not a good sign. But this is fabulous and the MACD is good way over the nine-period moving average, which is way above the 14. So to get the yen to become a sell signal and then a sell mode, I think you'd have to be closing under 146. It's at 149.6. So actually even 144. So there's a lot to be done. And it'll be just sudden news. And I drew in the verticals. Look, the verticals are still very strong in the weekly chart. And it's a leg F. It could be an alternative count, F slash B. That would be unbelievable for the yen. And then if you look at the EURUSD, that is the exact opposite coming down. Let me just refresh that. There it goes. Right. Look at that. Stuck in the range. Hasn't broken down. Hasn't broken down, but way in the weekly chart, way in the lower range and the monthly chart. So that's a problem. So now we want to go to the TLT. The TLT made a lower low. I'm calling this a leg G. It could be an alternative count. It could be G slash C. In fact, that's what I normally do when I get a G. If I check it out, this does become a G slash C, lower case C. And the MACD is weak, very weak. The stochastic is at 80%. And look how long it's been under 20%. That's the exact opposite of above 80%. So this is very weak. And the monthly chart, the weekly chart is at 3.79 in the stochastic. And it's saying on a purely numbers related basis, it is so close to some attempt at a move to the upside. And if you look at the monthly chart, it's at 9% in the stochastic looking very, very weak. So the dollar still is the lead currency. Now I want to go to the exact opposite, the TBT. I had a question. Could I do some analysis on TBT? If I'm just looking at it on a weekly basis, I'm saying, gee, that's kind of overboard, isn't it? But wait a minute. The MACD stochastic is flat at 94%. It actually has even begun to flatten out. And the monthly chart is in leg D. It's above the previous resistance in the 30 area. Here it is at 35.15. And in the weekly chart, it is a G slash C. That's because I decided that there was a chance you could call this an instant restart because the low of the week, of the 29th of April, 23.43 was the low. And then the low on that it ran up to a peak F, 29.56, and then plummeted down. And the low on was 23.34, the week of the 5th of August. And you had, of course, I should have remembered 23.43. So it went lower. So I have no choice but to say, this is either I can't treat this as a scene because it went lower and lower means you've negated it. This is either, I don't know, it's impossible to even put this in, that the weekly and the TBT, Ultra Short Limit 20 at Treasury Bond ETF is only at A. Now I'm going to call, just for the moment, I'm going to call it a G because once you take out that left side low, you have to restart. And that's the reason why in the S&P, we took out the left side low. And I have to call that a peak B. The SPY peak B, the SP, what was the, there was a dividend one, all the S&Ps are at a peak B. That's because the low of March 2020 went to 21.91 below the 23.46 low of December of 2018. Remember when the Fed was raising rates, we went down there. So this is, I have no choice and it could fail but I am calling it a B and everything else in the monthly charts has a notation above D or higher and therefore you can get some kind of a down arrow saying, okay, that's a sell signal to sell mode. We haven't got them, we've got sell signals, haven't confirmed sell modes yet. So back to the TBT, that take out of the low on the weekly chart says that this is either a brand new A, remember what was the guy you said, Elizabeth, Elizabeth. Anyway, pain, pain, yeah, this is pain. So either it's a gene that's going to be a pullback, a pullback sharpening, even underneath it a peak ABCD that doesn't take out that high, anything can happen. But rates in the long term are going to be really dependent on this weekly chart. If you look at the US, this is the bonds themselves. Look, it's gone down to a low G slash B. Oh, the TYX, let's go to the tyx.x, there we go. Look at this, yeah, it's the same thing except that this did not take out the low. I go with the root, the root is the TYX. In this particular instance, I should go to the TNX. So I just wanted to do that, I had a question, could I look at it and now we've got to a G slash C in the daily chart of bonds, G slash C, and put the type in the wrong place. I'll be back in a moment, down's up, 98 years, he's up one. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life, before you decide it's impossible, get some advice from the experts. You might find that it's not so impossible after all. For daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices, selective stocks, and commodities, subscribe to the Opening Call newsletter at tfnn.com. The Opening Call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman, creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman Wave. The Chapman Wave up-down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns, finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices. Get the Opening Call newsletter by Basil Chapman in your inbox every day. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee. 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This program is brought to you by Vista Gold. Traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ. I was asked about SNAP in the break. It made a high of 83.34. It had a little bit of a pullback. It went down to what was a 942 area, October the 3rd. And now Australia 116. I think these particular stocks have a lot of work to be done. The ones that flatten out and then couldn't have a big pop-up, they just went sideways. This is the kind of stock that you want to see if you're holding it anywhere in the 10s, 10, 11, maybe 9, anywhere if you can get it in that area. If you just hold it, it was a fantastic company, obviously. One in demand that is unbuying. And then it's screened up to the 83 from the single digits. Actually, the lower back in March of 2020 was 789. So I think you just have to, if you are just sitting with it and you're prepared to, even at this level of two points down, between about, yeah, it could be 10, 15, 20%, just put it like that. But if you are prepared to sit with it, I don't like doing that. But if this is what is in your portfolio and you say, okay, I've got it in the low price. You want to just see, you want to just sit there and then out of the blue, there's some talk, takeover, whatever it is, it doesn't matter. But you want to see it have a big gap and then not fill that gap, even get into the gap for three sessions afterwards. And that says, ooh, finally, it can try to test the high that was made back in July of 16.55, July of 22. But it's a rectangle formation and it can go to the top and come back to the bottom and it's just stuck in a range. So just to finish up with the TBT, the TBT, the stochastics are 91%. To get the TBT negative, in other words, to have a change of shorter term to intermediate term from a buy mode to a sell signal and then a sell mode, meaning you've upgraded it going much lower, that means I think it has to go to 31.50. It's a 36, 35.24 right now with a height of 34.45. You would have to see that and that takes time. Either it just happens because there's a sudden something or other and it happens in a flash like the big spike up or the exact reverse. Or else you have to be prepared that it's a slow grind to the downside. And all I can say is that I haven't got anything as a sell signal yet or a buy signal in the TLT. I think I'm getting very close to maybe even attempting to say to some subscribers who are interested in the maybe taking a position in the Treasury bonds that as a bounce it might have a nice percentage bounce but I don't see a major turn just yet. But looking out, there are a lot of factors. I don't want to talk about it now. I'll have a chance that I want to look at and say one of the chances that a huge chunk of everything that the Fed once has been done and that even if it's just a mild decrease in inflation there could be something. I'll look at that but I'm not saying anything yet because we know that once inflation is out the box I mean it must have been eight months a year ago so I remember speaking with Tom in an interview in his Tom O'Brien show three to four every afternoon market days and saying you know my experience has been whenever the genie is out of the box of inflation it is really tough to get it back in. There are conditions that could do it but there are extremely volatile conditions and I'll talk about that a little later on but I am saying it's not impossible but wow, it's going to take something really dramatic to do. Now I wanted to go through this again I had a question about Baba yesterday this is Alibaba about having put on a very short term basis I'd say that's fine but even Alibaba has got this rectangle formation and that's the lower end of the rung it's at the lower end of the range back in March I think it was it went to 72, what was that low? 73-28 and now yesterday it went below five sessions ago it went to the 70 71-40 level but I think it's getting ready for a little bit of a bounce so yes if you've got the puts that's I don't know whatever I don't know your trading plan anything like that perfect for yesterday when you said that I didn't talk about it because I saw it a little later on but Alibaba, Chinese Amazon basically Alibaba Group trading at 73-85 down 249 today I think the larger trend is down just as I talk about when I say the FXI look to Alibaba it's exactly the same look how the FXI, the iShares China large cap ETF, there's a large cap ETF it actually changed its name years ago we used to look at the FXI it was 25 I think and now it's the large cap ETF it hasn't taken out the low of four days five days ago yep five days ago but it has taken out the weekly low of that February low so this is I think China's got a real problem I don't think I think the put is probably the site to be on but I'd also say manage your trade don't get too locked in even though for the past three months or four months absolutely locked in was the word just right here is where you got to be a little careful okay so now the question is that a question about XOM XOM Mobile, nice session today made a new recovery high this is a pattern that I'm always so impressed with is this a C? yep that's a C and it's gone to a leg D the leg D so far is under the 105.57 high of the week of the 10th of 10th of June just typing and what we're looking at here is that it's an F in the in the monthly chart if it goes above 105.57 I got a feeling I'm gonna have to call this an instant restart I'm not ignoring oil at this particular point although I think oil on the very short term has it really is making lower lows and lower highs it's having a tough time I think that from what everything I've read there is a chance that it could be a very sudden it's like a three to four day rocket ship to the upside if everything I'm looking at unfolds in a negative way so in the monthly chart you've got this two cups formation like a W a rising W formation and but it's a very quick peak A to B to C to D when it does that very often you've got to anticipate there's some kind of a pullback from the D so ExxonMobil trading at 103.40 up 2.50 today fabulous action and I think I'd said some time ago these are the ones you get dividends you get capital income I mean I have no idea why I actually didn't put in a buy when it hit exactly the 200 period moving average back in the roundabout the 26th or so of September it gapped down and it did that and then it had a huge move up for a leg A that was just a perfect buy I missed it Mayor Culpa I just didn't I don't know if I was looking I was waiting to see how it got the resistance Chapman we've inside tracked falling acts for resistance and then it'll one to one to the upside fabulous action so yes this is a place that I'd said if you're in it in the longer term I just wouldn't even look at it I just say okay fine let's just do what you have to do because it is one of the biggies CVX was the other one CVX is Chevron and Chevron is trading CVX right there it's not as good a pattern although she's gone to a leg D in the daily it's a leg C in the week chart not as good a pattern but actually the pattern that says it might not be looking too good right now but at 167 that 182 40 June high kind of getting to be a magnet we'll see I'll be back are you grinding in the market but seeing little to no return or are you a successful trader simply looking to make your job a little easier learn to take the path of least resistance with David White's 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when you subscribe you'll get a weekly report from veteran day trader Larry Pezzavento on stocks you need to pay attention to and you can trust Larry's analysis after all he's got 45 years experience as a day trader Larry will also provide daily charts videos and data on the key markets that he's tracking expect notifications from Larry on market movement you need to act on at any time first time subscribers also get a 30 day money back guarantee if you're not satisfied let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today tfnn.com educating investors this segment is brought to you by thinkorswim for more information just click the thinkorswim banner on the front page at tfnn.com hello so a question came in about CF Industries so CF Industries is basically a fertilizer area and then you've got Mars which is the mosaic company let me see if I've got it yes they are acting okay today there's something not quite right and that kind of goes with what I'm looking at in my DBA which is the DBA Cultural Fund making this arch formation this is what I'm talking about that we could suddenly get a tremendous deflation just like a few days where it looks like everything is coming down and the market just takes off from that but I think it's transitory we can't think of this as totally deflation it's certain areas and then they come together and then it fluctuates so with that in mind looking at the fertilizers they're in an area they get becoming more interesting I'd like a little bit more of a pullback and then we can start looking at them maybe as a potential lock SLB's mentioned slumberge yes this is a fabulous move up this is a leg C rig was the same we did have a rig once we don't have it now rig is holding very nice this is trans ocean offshore it says to me that at some point we've got to watch this crude oil very closely because crude oil is acting very poorly right if at any point you start to see crude oil in the 88 it's an 82 right now 88 to 90 area I think all of a sudden things are going to change so this is a very complex period and that's the reason why I haven't been aggressively going long in any of the sectors right in any of the key indexes I don't quite trust exactly I need the price to prove itself oh I never did the VIX we'll just do the VIX as we're about to wrap up because we're going to go to Steve Rhodes now that should be an exciting program as always very informative great technical analysis you're looking at the VIX index of 3109 up 59 cents but it is trying to make the arch formation if by the end of the day the VIX actually is more close to the high which is 3177 today if it's closer to 3177 or even