 What is going on everybody welcome on into covering the spread that's right here on the fan dual podcast network in number fire Dot-com where today we are previewing Super Bowl 55 and breaking down all the big prop bets on the board with JJ Zachary So the Aaron Dolan getting their thoughts on the cheese versus the bucks and we're also live for the first time in the History of covering the spread. My name is Jim Sonnis I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire dot-com joined here as always by dr. Ed Thank you can find his work over the power ink dot-com Ed We're live. This is weird. How you doing? I'm doing really good. Yeah, it's weird being live We got a whole party going on here with Aaron and JJ and so yeah, just very exciting like all the buzz on social I was like, oh man, people are fan duals making the most of this and yeah, I greatly appreciate Marketing dollars by this, you know We'll make it rain a little Johnny Manziel style and hopefully put some of the money back in your pockets With some good prop betting analysis for today as mentioned our guests are today JJ Zachary's and an Aaron Dolan JJ is a Semi-regular here now I think I can say that because partly because you've been here a couple of times But also because you've had success last year on this show you had Padma homes to score the first touchdown a 20 to 1 So JJ any nerves for you given the bar you set for yourself with what happened last year, of course We all are numbers driven people. We know regression is inevitable I'm not I'm not feeling good about this Super Bowl because last Super Bowl went really well That means just just take all my advice during this hour with a grain of salt. Hashtag fade jade fade JJ at all No, no, no, we remember he had most dirt under his rushing total last year We're also joined here by Aaron Dolan you can find her on her brand new radio show the early line That's on sports grid and on serious XM as well You can find her on Twitter at Aaron Kate Dolan Aaron. We appreciate you swinging by are you pumped for Super Bowl 55? Hello, thank you so much for having me. Of course. I am I can't wait to give you all my hot takes and picks and of course I'm gonna have to fade JJ since he did well last year Hope he's on the chiefs because I'm on the box, but we'll get more into that later Thank you so much for having me on though. I'm really excited. Absolutely. We're excited to have you here, too It's a it's a fun group to have together We're gonna go through all the prop bets to get you set for Super Bowl 55 If you did not listen last week that we had a full game breakdown of bucks versus chief chiefs with George Charory of pro football focus that is already up on the covering the spread podcast He just searched for covering the spread wherever you get your podcast to find that get George's thoughts on this game And where he is leaning and we also did talk some props with George as well So all the prop betting analysis you could possibly want is Available now before we dive into the props here I do want to talk to both Aaron and JJ about their thoughts overall on this game because That is gonna dictate a lot of the way we go with these props because if you think the bucks are gonna waste the cheese You're probably not betting rushing yardage totals over for the cheese running back So Aaron, I do want to start with you and I want to get your overall thoughts on this game Bucks versus you said you're on the box. What puts you there and how good do you feel about this box team? So I feel very confident in this box team because my big Tom Brady fan But I've been saying all playoffs don't bet against Tom Brady the playoffs and he made it to the Super Bowl So if I went against my word at this point, I don't really I don't have a choice here I have to go with the box. I have to go with Tom Brady I think that the total is gonna go under the 56 and a half this more money has been pouring it on the over It was staying there. It's now dropped to 55 and a half, but I just think that the bucks get it done I think they upset the chiefs in this one. I wouldn't be surprised if Tom Brady pulled a few tricks out of his hat As well as the offensive line for the chiefs being a little banged up here I don't think it's going to be a shootout the way people do believe it's going to be and really high scoring I think it's going to be a very interesting one But yes, I'm going with the bucks and I'm confident with that one. I had to ride with it After I said all playoffs don't bet against Tom Brady Why why change now? Uh bucks are plus three and that's plus 100. It's a pretty good number there The money line is plus 144 Are you going with the spread here so you can get the wiggle room with the points or do you want to go money line and just I have to go money line. I have to go money line. I have to be confident in this one But you made a great point that based on what I think is going to happen in my prediction in the game That's going to determine which prop that's I take so you'll notice throughout us picking which props we like I'm gearing these towards the bucks and Tom Brady. Perfect. Okay. So where does the fade JJ movement begin? What are you looking at for this game as a whole JJ? Yeah, so, you know, I think that if I were to go the bucks route, uh, which again, you guys should be fading me So Aaron, uh, great great pick with the bucks here If I were to go the bucks route, I agree I would go money line and the main reason being is that there are very high variance team They've been a really high variance team all year So if you're gonna if you're gonna pick the bucks to win, uh, you might as well Just just go with the you know the whole the whole deal instead of instead of taking the points all the chips in Yeah, yeah, just just go for it. Um, but I do feel kind of fishy when I say that I like the chiefs in this matchup Um, it's just really hard for me to not look at what happened in week 12 Um, and and not think that the chiefs can handle this even though the the offensive line is banged up Which I think is going to play a major major role in this game But you know, if you look back at what happened in that week 12 matchup After the first quarter the chiefs according to number fire live had a 91 win probability So, I mean, obviously the game ended up being a three-point game Um, but we shouldn't expect that or you know, we shouldn't have expected that necessarily Just given the way that that game sort of unfolded Um, so I I do I do think that the chiefs offensive line is a little bit worrisome going up against uh, A d that can really pressure the quarterback. They were third in pressure rate this season That's a little bit worrisome for sure. Um, but at the same time, you know There's a great stat from from pat thorman, uh from establish the run That he he had tweeted maybe earlier this week or maybe last week But in the regular season, uh, the chiefs against playoff teams were 4 and 0 with a plus 29 point differential The bucks were 1 and 5 with a minus 25 point differential That one win that the bucks had was against green bay who they clearly seem to match up pretty well against Um, so I just think bringing it all together, uh, you know, the way you attack this tampa bay defense is through the air We know that the chiefs can throw the ball pretty well I do think that there's there's plenty of concern about the offensive line And because of that match up in the trenches, I agree with erin that the under is is the way to go Uh for this game. I think that I'm more confident actually in the under hitting than I am picking the cheats the chiefs with the You know giving points. Yeah, uh, the total down to 55 and a half Minus 105 on the under right now and jj. Don't worry bethany peters and altair On the youtube chat are on team jj. So you're good. They're they're believing in you even though regression They believe in you but erin to your credit ed is also on the bucks We talked about this last week ed how you like the bucks for this game I'm gonna be a bad marketer of our podcast and ask you the reasoning for that as opposed to shuffling people to that podcast So what was your reasoning for liking the bucks plus three of this game? Yeah, I mean a lot of reasons. I mean, uh, first of all, my model has Kansas City by about a point and a half in this game And that's with a neutral site. Um That that's assuming it's a neutral site. It's not necessarily going to be a neutral site It should be a little bit of a a Tampa Bay crowd because there's about 7 000 tickets that are going to healthcare workers Mostly from from the Tampa Bay area. Um, yeah, we we have to respect Kansas City for what they can do Throwing the football, but you know in a lot of sense, they're kind of a one-trick pony They're amazing at throwing the football and they're kind of mad everything else And I think Tampa Bay is a little bit more well-rounded of a team. Uh, I I do like their defense. Um I think they're they're gonna do enough to to slow them down. I think it's going to be a close game late and um Yeah, so the other thing about kind of the way my modeling works, um, you know, when I just look at the data from this year Uh looking at success rate looking at yards for pass attempt looking at margin of victory in games That's the metric that actually favors Tampa Bay outright at a neutral site and a lot of that is that strength of that defense and You know, I mean, we've seen Kansas City be really good these last two games and and they well I guess they didn't cover against Cleveland, but you know clearly had a great game against Buffalo I think part of that's getting factored in and um I'm definitely going to be playing this little recency uh bias type thing when we talk about props as well And I think that it's important too. Let's go ahead. Yeah On the same page here I think there is at a certain point a chief's tax with regards to the spreads and you know You can take that for what it is. Uh, but I think that at a certain point Mahomes carries enough allure and enough fear where you're going to get a couple extra points potentially tacked on There as well over on periscope dream chaser says that the chief's money line and under combo is good money So they are on the chief's money line But the under there now we're going to talk about individual players and some props talk some mvp bets in just one second But also as you can see over on spandrel sports But we do have other markets for the game as a whole and jj I want to talk to you about those markets. You've got total yards with the opening kick off Although you can bet on the coin toss if you hate money, uh, what are you seeing here as far as the overall game? Uh with with these markets here Yeah, so, you know a couple things one of the things that I'll definitely touch on later As well, um, but if you're looking at at, uh, who's receiving the ball In this game and who would I mean coin toss you can you can choose whatever you want But you know, if you're just generally getting a vibe for what direction, uh, this can go in after the coin toss Uh, the last two games that this is this is courtesy of our buddy brandon gadoula Um from from a number fire and fandal But the last two games that the buccaneers have played in the regular season where they they want a coin toss Because they apparently lost the coin toss every week of the playoffs the last two, uh games that they play in the regular season They opted to receive the kickoff Um, whereas the chiefs have deferred uh every every time that they've won a coin toss this year Which tells you that probability, uh is in the buccaneers favor to receive the ball Uh in this game So if the chiefs obviously win the toss and the bucks are going to get the ball right away But even if the bucks win the toss they can still get the ball Um, so I I do I do you know, that's gonna to go into sway me a little bit throughout Um, you know how I'm viewing the first half the first quarter first touchdown score, etc But the other thing that I I don't mind is uh, the buccaneer offense of yards It said at 370.5 or at least it was whenever I was taking a look at it Hopefully didn't move, uh, which happens a lot whenever I talk to you, Jim They're tapped into our slack and they know where jj is and they know where the money's gonna go as a result Yeah, I just remember the chase claypole one the the that I was I was on two yards, man That's that was for big two yards All right But the bucks averaged about 15 more yards per game than that number in Kansas city Is a fairly average defense in terms of yards per player yards per game allowed You know, I think that that we get really enamored and I know that I took the chiefs and I'm still saying this But you know, we get we get really enamored with with how good that chief's offense is But if you look at number fires expected points model this season And that's adjusted for strength of schedule. Uh, the chiefs were third in the NFL and offense The bucks were fourth. I mean the bucks can move the ball down the field I think there is some concern in this matchup that the chiefs are are fairly decent at limiting big plays And if you look at what this Bruce Arians offense is and even even what tom braid He's done a little bit more this year than he's done the pass. It's through the the the ball intermediate and deep Um, they they threw the ball intermediate or deep and completed those passes at the third highest rate in the league this year Uh, so they should be able to or they might not be able to to get these huge chunks of yards But I just think what we've seen from this Tampa Bay offense in general this season The fact that this number is significantly lower than their averages here and the chiefs are fairly average at giving up yards Uh, more of a bend, but don't break type d. I think that the the yardage total there I would hit the over for Tampa Bay at 370. There are multiple paths to and over there for Tampa Bay Which I think is is an important note for anything, you know Having multiple paths to getting where you want to go and I do want to go to you because I remember last year You had a pretty good read on these markets I've got a chance to look at any of the the game wide markets any of them sending out to you for this one between the Chiefs in the box Well, yeah, I mean I did want to jump on to what JJ was saying about about Tampa Bay's yardage. Um I think I would also lean towards the over just because uh You know Kansas City might not allow that many big plays, but their pass rush has been pretty weak this year So their leader in terms of sacks is chris jones at seven and a half Um, I don't have the number in front of me, but they didn't really look good when I look at sack rate adjusted for For uh, you know the offense the offenses they have played So I think it is a situation where brady's going to sit there Is going to have some time to sit back and and chuck some bombs Towards chris godwin and and mike evans. So um, so yardage is definitely uh, something that uh, yeah I think you know, I mean if the Tampa if that if that's well under their season total Um, it seems like something that that I want a part of Yeah, absolutely. I think that's definitely enticing now bethany peters on youtube did say if Tampa Bay wins It's hard to imagine a an mvp not named tom brady's. Let's pull up the mvp odds over here Tom brady the second favorite to win. He is plus 200 patrick mahomes minus 105 So erin, you are on the buccaneer Yes, does that mean that you're on tom brady as your mvp for superbowl 55 Of course, I've been saying this all week all last week on my radio show So I like tyree kill and Travis Kelsey that they're at, you know, I think they're plus 1,400 and beyond Um, I think those could even be shorter there and if the chiefs win that could potentially be something with great value I wouldn't bet on patrick mahomes even if the chiefs were going to win it only because I don't like to bet minus 105 if I can get it a plus 200 plus 1,200 kind of win some fun Prop bets, uh, but the one thing with quarterbacks They've won this award 30 out of the 50 for super bowls So I kind of just feel like if the buck's win brady's going to get it the chiefs win patrick mahomes going to get it Given that I'm on the bux It kind of just makes sense brady's won this four times in his career the most ever in superbowl history So he's been here before I think he can get it done I think uh, that's a pretty good argument Especially too because you look at think about the talk around this game and it's so much Mahomes v brady like that's the talk around this game and that does Motivate stuff like that ed you mentioned chris godwin though. Uh, I may or may not have a chris godwin ticket He is he's 34 to 1 if angelo sportsbook ed Can I bait you into saying chris godwin will mvp win mvp on the show? No, but That's pretty wild Just a couple thoughts there. I mean it it's not, you know, the quarterbacks always gonna win it right I mean we've seen a number of wide receivers over the last 20 super bowls I think it's been four. Yeah, uh, win it. So that's certainly a possibility um I'm gonna say no on godwin just because uh I have roof of p body on my show this on my podcast this week And he was he was definitely on unders in terms of receptions and yards for godwin Um, I I see the man drop a lot of balls. I mean how many did you drop in that redskins game six? Yeah, I don't have a ton of faith in him. Um, I would I don't know it feels like when you think about I mean Mahomes is uh is more than 50 percent to to win mvp And the chiefs are probably about the same chance to win You know win the game So you're kind of assuming that mahomes wins it if the chiefs win it which is not a bad assumption But I don't think that's a hundred percent kind of thing. So if you're going to take a receiver Maybe you go with the chiefs You like the chiefs here, uh, but as I mentioned Not a lot of value on mahomes Does that push you away from this market as a whole or do you think that there is a longer shot you like here? No, I mean I I think ed makes a great point that if you look at the last 20 super bowls you have four defensive players I think that we can throw that out. It's very unlikely that we're going to see a defensive player in this particular game When super bowl mvp and then outside of defensive players, you've only seen quarterbacks and wide receivers Win the mvp award. There's been 20 percent of these super bowls They've gone to wide receivers, you know, you had stealer wide receivers do it. You had dion branch do it but so so to me, uh You have a game right now where you do have three really really good wide receivers Whether it's chris godwin mike evans or tyreek hill Jim i'm not gonna i'm not gonna hate on the chris godwin take as much as they're gonna hate on it I I you know, do I think that godwin is is Probable to to have a great great game. Probably not. Um, but if you look at So why would you bet on mvp? I think the odds the odds are decent here because they were 35 to 1 right? They were at right? right And if you look at what happened in the last game, uh, the the, uh, Bucking ears really attacked the the middle of the field against the chiefs Which is what we're probably going to see what we generally see against the chiefs to You don't go against the boundary as much as which is why mike evans only had three catches in that game I do think you know evans evans was banged up throughout the season He seems like he's at least a little bit maybe healthier than he was earlier in the year And he had that scare at the end of the year of course But I do think that evans is going to succeed and do better than he did from a receptions and yardage total Then he didn't that week 12 game. Um, but yeah, I mean I I I think that if you're not going to go with one of the quarterbacks You got to go with a wide receiver. Maybe travis kelsey. That's fine, too So you're looking at tyreek hill travis kelsey chris godwin mike evans and godwin has Really strong odds. I mean just just generally speaking. I think tyreek hill is probably my favorite value just in general Because I do like the chiefs tyreek hill Destroyed this buck secondary the last time they face each other And we know that he has the big playability the flashiness that will go along with winning mvp But I don't mind the godwin take jim. I I think that it's not not bad value at 30 factor one vindication But you're fading me remember you're fading my take no more No, that was that was early show jim early your late show jim is on jj fully fully invested. Well, let's go Has it has a tight end ever won? I mean, I know a tight end hasn't won the last place in the tight end He's like a deity. He's more. He's more deity than tight end if we're being realistic here. He But if you want nvp, he would go down as a tight end to win nvp He'll go as down as a tight end and air quotes that'll actually be in the record book. I think I'll pair an interesting Comment over on youtube talking the defensive player to win nvp if you want to bet that you can at fandall sports book Defensive player is plus 850. I would not do that personally. I don't think that's Long enough to get me to bite But hey if you feel good about it You can do so over a fandall sports book and I'm not necessarily going to go joining you on that trail Let's talk about some more props here and dive into the quarterbacks first and take a look at some of the specific markets around quarterbacks now ed We talked about quarterbacks quite a bit last year. I think you were talking about Some interception props and those that you liked are you on anything for this one with regards to the quarterbacks? Anything sending out to you there? yeah, I mean a couple things let's let's just talk about patrick mahomes and yards and uh, he's at 329 and a half yards and this market is being um propped up By that one game in which he had 462 462 yards against tampa bay in the earlier game He had enough so so he had a lot of yards and I think that is really uh I think that's really inflating the market for this So if you go back over the last two seasons He would have gone over 329 yards 12 out of 33 games Um, so I think this number is just really really high. Um, I already took uh, mahomes under 329 Yards his his passing yard is total. Yes, it scares me a little bit because we know what the man can do Um, but I do just do think there's value. It's this this number is really really high He didn't get there against buffalo in a game in which he just did whatever he wanted Against that buffalo defense and it'll be interesting But you know because of the if the box come out and have that same strategy with too high safeties and And just give them everything underneath And you know, he can get to his 40, you know He can potentially get to 41 pass attempts and maybe not go over 329 yards. So um, yeah, I like them homes passing yards prop and um For those reasons I don't like how this sets up at because you have under 329 and a half yards from the homes I actually bet my homes throw a pick over the weekends Um, so both of us here uncovering the spread in a way rooting against Patrick Mahomes He's plus 152 to throw a pick at fangirl sportsbook. This makes me very scared So Aaron, I need you to save us. Uh, find us something out Maybe you want to be on the homes or betting against the homes too, but anything standing out to you at the quarterbacks here Yeah, for Patrick Mahomes, I do like him over two and a half touchdown passes that is at minus 136 last time I checked So there's not great value there. That's just what I've written down in terms of the chiefs But then of course, let me just bring it right back to the buck since you know, I'm going to be all over that Um, the first pass attempt by brady. I like that complete. That's minus 185 That's not great value either But I do think that he thrives in these types of games The one market that I also am on is brady to throw a first quarter touchdown So what's interesting is brady and his last nine super bowl opening quarters He has not scored a touchdown. So I think that he's been different all year I think he finally scores the first touchdown obviously with these Nine previous super bowls have been with different teams a lot of different factors there But I thought that was an interesting market and if he doesn't score the first touchdown You could take the first scoring play for the bucks as a field goal at plus 410 So I thought there was good value there. I also like tom brady over two 96 and a half passing yards He threw for 345 yards when they lost against the chiefs in week 12 Not to mention he threw 505 yards in super bowl 52 So I don't like to go back in history and look at all these different numbers But I think the one thing I'm going to notice is he's been at this level so many times He knows what's on the line and he usually gets it done Well erin one thing I would say too that's in your in your favor that I like that you did there is you kind of Overlook the past with regards to brady and the slow starts in the first quarter because it's important to remember like It's such a different context if you look at tom brady and super bowls That was like one of them was in 2001 when he was 20 years younger than he currently is which is absurd Totally different person Right exactly. So I think the thought process of Separating tom brady in 2021 from tom brady in 2001. I think that's a necessary thought process So I'm glad you brought that up Yeah, and I think it's important for anybody Betting on either props or just on the regular markets that at least personally I don't like to go back five 10 15 years and what happened and look at every single trend That's historic. I think it's better to just look at the last previous matchups and see kind of what happened there and feed off that Yeah, absolutely We did have a comment here from william saying the best quarterback prop is brady's rushing yard now william I would say Hopefully you were listening to covering the spread last week because george charuri was on that At the time over a half a yard was plus 198 when I checked this morning I think it was plus 150 or 140 something So a lot of value there for george and william. Hopefully you were in on that early Because that one has moved in a pretty big way Let's move outside of the quarterbacks here because there are a lot of the things we can bet and my personal favorite market is First touchdown score. I love these because you can cash it right away. You get some good odds. You can have some fun I think that's always really enticing JJ, I want to go to you You were on mahomes at 20 to 1 last year to score the first touchdown this year is 18 to 1 and Not fully healthy. So not as much value there. Are you going back to mahomes or what you're looking at with this one? Not going back to mahomes. I'm going to I'm going to pull I'm going to go with the jim sanis method here a little bit So so, you know, I've talked to jim plenty done plenty of shows with jim. I know that he likes to take underdogs And go with the first touchdown with the underdogs. You usually get better juice doing that Absolutely And so if you look at the bucks right now, you're going to get better odds for guys in the bucks and you are On the chiefs and then I'm going to bring back what I talked about earlier The the numbers that brandon gadoula was able to pull Where the bucks deferred Or sorry, the the chiefs had deferred every single coin toss this season The bucks have chosen to receive the last two times they've won Which means I expect the bucks to have a higher probability of getting the ball first in this game Which means let's say they don't score a touchdown the first drive That doesn't mean that everything sunk because the chiefs might not score a touchdown on their first drive either So the bucks have a higher probability of having more drives in the first half Let's say Or the first quarter And so as a result, I'm going to pick a player on the bucks and I'm going to go with mike evans And you know, I think it's a fairly safe bet if the bucks are going to score You know third in the nfl this year and targets from inside the 10 You know, they utilize them essentially as like a goal line back at times the way they they uh, you know Just get get single coverage on the outside and just throw it up to them I I like mike evans a lot As the first touchdown scorer don't mind Lenny for net though either You know if you're going to go that route because obviously we know The chiefs are a little bit susceptible Running the football against them. Uh, you you're able to do it And Leonard for net just seeing such a high market share in that backfield throughout the playoffs And if they're able to get close to the goal line, they will probably utilize Leonard for net in some way I don't want to go with a twofer. I'm going to stick with mike evans, but I don't mind Leonard for net either Yeah for nets 10 to 1 and if you look back to their game against the Packers They had five red zone plays three of those were Leonard for net opportunities He had two carries and one target and they kind of committed to him in that game So I think that across the board. There's a lot of value in Leonard for net props I think that that applies to the first touchdown at 10 to 1 but also anytime touchdown Plus 125 that's not You know tremendous odds, but I think they are advantageous regardless So I like the line of thinking there with for nets, uh, mike evans They drone bettas for you as a Pittsburgh person the drone bettas of wide receivers at times So far this year Aaron, what about you? Anything sending you guys words out of my mouth? I literally haven't written down in my notes Leonard for net And now it sounds like I'm stealing your guys picks We can just run it back. No one will ever know. It's not like this is live or anything. We're good Yeah, it's not live. Um, I had Leonard for net mainly because it's good value Like you said 10 to 1 I am not a huge fan of betting the first person to score the touchdown One because it is so hard and every single time I bet it I never fucking hit it So I get so frustrated with this market But if I had a picks one, I was going with Leonard for net, um, like you said good odds Also for the anytime touchdown plus 125 on the fandom sportsbook He only scored three times in his first 10 games with the bucks, but he's had six touchdowns in the last six contest Including three in the playoffs so far So I feel like that could happen and then also jj You made a lot of great points with what happens with the coin toss will also kind of predetermine this But yeah that I feel there's more value on the buck side in betting this But so I wouldn't mind also going with Patrick Mahomes 18 to 1 I think that's a great kind of shake up and start if you also if you did it back to back super bowls But is that likely not really short want to be great for sportsbooks 18 to 1 But uh, also not a bad side on the Well, I have a question for you guys Do you guys feel I mean talking about Mahomes to go in the first touchdown he did last year on a running play Do you feel like he was himself running the ball like mobility wise against ball flow? Well, he he does who was it that mentioned, uh, the I can't remember what coach But one coach mentioned how he always has that like it looks like he's limping all the time and then player Actually, was it a player? Yeah They called it like an old uncle limp or something like that Yeah, yeah, because he does that thing where he like looks like he's he's banged up And then he just gets under center and he's he's completely mobile again. I thought he got a win Yeah, I thought that I thought that he looked decent enough In that game against buffalo, um, but the two weeks rest I think well He should be fairly 100 and that's apparently what reports are saying too. Yeah. No, I thought he looked fine against buffalo I've I've also talked to people who thought otherwise But I think he's gonna be 100 in terms of of of being mobile and not having anything with that toe Issued that that really did hurt his game against cleveland. Yeah, absolutely He couldn't you know, they were showing the throwing angle throwing motion stuff like that. It was different for sure So ed Is that enough for you to go with my home's 18 to 1 as first touchdown score? He wasn't just a super bowl last year. He also had the first touchdown against cleveland. So like that was this year as well It's worked out before we going back to the well No, uh, personally this is a market that I don't really like just because the odds are pretty big and just the frustration level of You know betting someone 18 to 1 10 to 1 um So and I i'm gonna leave these types of choices to the experts like jj who who who study touchdown rates and and and all those types of things You know 365 days a year. Yes, absolutely jj lives in breeze These numbers let's go to jj here and talk about some more traditional props You know, these are your player props you find throughout the year because we get additional markets with soup bowl But like we don't have to bet the additional markets We can go with the old reliable talk about some yardage props talk about some usage props jj When you look at these player props for Super Bowl 55, where are you seeing value this year? Yeah, so, you know, I I really thought a lot about this because I didn't I haven't gotten a really good feel necessarily for How many yards some of these players? I mean, it's just tough to project because we don't know exactly how this Tampa Bay defense is going to play Uh, the the the kc offense just given what we saw back in week 12 They they shifted things a little bit during that game where they were You know allowing ty re kill to do his thing They shifted a little bit and then all of a sudden Travis Kelsey is catching all these balls underneath I think they were more successful doing that and playing two eye safeties So I think what's going to happen, uh, or at least from a projectable standpoint and projection standpoint What I feel more confident in is less the receiving yardage and more the volume Uh, because if you look at Tampa Bay, uh, they actually are a funnel defense, you know, it's it's usually That that term is usually one that gets thrown around loosely in fantasy circles And it's kind of a kind of a frustrating term. Uh, but the buccaneers actually are a funnel defense There's a great study on 538 that talked about it where their rush defense is so so good that teams are actually Opting to throw the ball on them more. Um, which is really not optimal in today's nfl But it's seemingly working for for Tampa Bay But as a result of that I do think that Kansas City is going to come and and Kansas City is one of those teams Where they really morph their game plan against the the defense and the matchups that they're going to get instead of just forcing Whatever scheme they have onto that defense. That's just what Andy reads great at doing And so what I think we're going to see is a lot of horizontal passing from this Kansas City defense Which is what they do to begin with. I mean, this is you know, I know that everyone gets excited about Patrick Mahomes's arm But there's a lot of horizontal elements to this offense where they get guys in space And they're able to do their thing after that after the catch So I'm really looking at both Travis Kelsey and Tyreek Hill and I like their overs on the reception side You know, I'm not really touching the yards as much But you know, Tyreek Hill had like 12 catches last time these teams face each other His line said it's six and a half, which I think is a very fair line. Don't get me wrong I'm not someone who just takes whatever happened in that previous game and associates it to this one But what I'm really looking at in this game is the fact that I think Kansas City is going to have a very very very Pass heavy attack So I'm looking at all of the overs from a from a volume standpoint not necessarily yardage But from a reception standpoint for a lot of these guys, maybe even a Clyde Edwards Allaire as well But I'm not looking at the overs necessarily for their yardage totals Yeah, a couple of things there that do bode well for you Kelsey's total reception number seven and a half minus 146 on the over Which you know, you may hear what minus 146 and you're like, I don't know I don't know if I want to go there, but Kelsey has gone under eight receptions once within his past I think like 10 games. I'm trying to count it on the fly. I'm not going to count that high because it's a really big number Um, but he's always right there. So although it's juiced up. I think that's justified The other thing that I want to go back to is what you said about the chiefs being passed In that game against Tampa Bay the first game they played against each other The chiefs threw the ball 84 percent of the time on early downs in the first half that is a massive number like Top like league leading numbers around like 62 percent 63 percent They were at 84 freaking percent and there's no reason for them to deviate from that So I I do think that your thought process of they're going to throw a lot Potentially throwing underneath that makes a lot of sense to me. What about you erin? We're using value here in the More traditional player prop markets Yeah, jj. I guess I'm quite literally fading you on absolutely I was going with tyrie kill over receiving yards and what's interesting is I see your argument totally get that I like that you're taking the volume that makes a lot of sense Obviously with these receiving yards like you said going back and looking at each single game might not be the reason that everything's going to hit over um and tyrie Tyree kills case in week 12. We talked about this earlier 269 yards off 13 touches three touchdowns He was explosive in that game. He hit over 100 yards hit 172 in the conference championship 110 yards In the divisional round and the reason that I'm taking the over on this receiving yards and a lot of times I don't like to bet player props on the over receiving Especially in guarded and whatnot, but the reason I'm doing that is because I feel like a lot of sharp money has come in And pushed that line up. I got it at 92 and a half. I know it's at 94 and a half And I think that line will continue to increase a lot of people When they're thinking about those super well They know so many people are betting on it that the lines are going to be as sharp as possible And this is one that a lot of people are going to bet on and although that is very very true It doesn't scare me from taking the over on his receiving yards Yeah And if you did not get in at that number that erin got you can bet alternate markets or tyrie kills receiving yards You can bet over 100 yards at plus 110 you can bet 110 yards at plus 158 or 125 At plus 255 and you got that within the first five minutes last time So if you want to get crazy with tyrie kill you can still do so now ed We should talk with you about like full game numbers as opposed to player props, but It's a super bowl. So any any dabbling of your feet in this player prop market for Super Bowl 55 Yeah, absolutely. I mean here's where I want to start talking about interceptions So tom brady through three interceptions against green bay almost let the packers back in the game And you know, I mean that could have been a completely different game Had they not gone for that fourth and three with 12 seconds 13 seconds left At the second half scored a long touchdown after that So the question is like it's tom brady going to do that again, right? And I've seen some stuff about people want to bet him to throw a pick. Uh, no, please please don't do that um, I actually really like uh, so Just just uh, try to keep the math a little bit light here But he's thrown picks about two percent even with those three picks the last game He's had about a two percent pick rate still better than nfl average And if you go with the markets that he's going to have about 41 attempts So that's roughly about a 44 chance that he's not going to throw a pick So that already suggests value at the fan to a number, which I think is I just checked was plus 132 Um, I don't think two percent is really his true interception rate. Uh, he has been fantastic Throughout his career. So just for example over the last three years in new england He had a 1.5 percent interception rate And you might say but ed, you know, he's in this bruce arian's offense, you know, no risk Get no biscuit Like to throw, uh, like to throw the ball down the field And you know, his interception rate has gone up this year But I do want to point out one thing that I got from dr. Eric eager over at pff You know, they track turnover worthy plays in the passing game And usually, you know, he's had 17 turnover worthy plays Usually about 62 of those end up being interceptions And you know, he's had 15 interceptions this year So he's probably had more than his fair share of interceptions when you just look at this look at it this year I mean, this guy is the best at just throwing balls away, right? Like he's not usually going to put something in a dangerous spot. So I I definitely like tom brady Not to Not to throw pick So that's for sure. I'm still contemplating the market where whether mohomes or brady is going to throw the first pick um, I think I It's really it, you know Mahomes, mohomes and andy reid are also very good at taking care of the football in the passing game as well So it feels a little bit weird even at plus money to bet mohomes that throw the first pick So I haven't I haven't done that yet either But please take please take this advice that, you know, tom brady is good at not throwing picks That's probably what we're going to see in the biggest game of the year And that can be applied to I mean, it can be applied to the game situation, right? You know, I don't think he's I don't think there's going to be a lot of turnovers I don't think that's going to decide this game another thing that just kind of pulls it a little bit more in favor Of tampo bay for me and for those of you who are not regular covering the spread listeners I do want to give you some uh, some background on ed He had a a report done earlier this year before the season called the picker part where he'd looked at Interceptible balls trying to predict a player's interception rate and his Take away from that Aaron. You might want to put your mouse on here. His takeaway was that Carson Wentz is going to throw a lot of picks in 2020. I am not a Carson Wentz Okay, good. Okay. I didn't know. No, but really it'll get me heated. I'm starting to get red right now You can't get into this Do you have eagles on this year both three years ago on this date? We won't get it on this date. Okay, so On this day for 2018. Thank you. Yeah. Happy anniversary on that. That's exciting. I see the eagles Helmet in your background and uh, we didn't get a question on youtube about your backgrounds because When I first saw your background on sports grid, I thought you were in JJ's house And so I asked about that you had the exact same background and it is weirding me out. What is this? It is Ikea you go on Ikea and it comes and when they say don't use a drill you use a drill It there's a lot of holes in this thing that's not done, right? But it's standing and might fall one day, but it's okay Uh, and then yeah, that fendle sent some great swag and I got some books up here that I've read half red I should say um, and yes So we'll get you a Jalen Hurts sticker for that that eagle's helmet. Oh, you know I bet Jalen hurts to beat the scenes. That was my best bet of the day I talked that talked about that this morning on my, uh, radio show just because I'm always fading Carson Wentz So you can use the money from that bet to buy the Jalen Hurts sticker for your eagle's helmet. We're all good This is perfect. Okay, Erin. I'm gonna stick with you here and move to uh, just a general question here Any other bets standing out to you based on the current odds of fan dual sports book that we have not already discussed Well, the one that just pops in my head is the defense props first qb sacked So, uh, Carson Wentz loved to be sacked. Oh, yeah So surprisingly I am going with Tom Brady plus 100 here So my home's has been sacked just once the post season Tom Brady has five times in the past three playoff games So I love Tom Brady, but for him to be sacked I want to be surprised He also I feel like he goes down He gets up and he's just ready to play again as opposed to Carson Wentz who might shed a tear So that is my hot take a little bit right there. It's my defensive prop I like it and it goes with what JJ's been talking about where it seems like the most likely scenario is the Bucks get the ball first if they get the ball first that increases the odds of Tom Brady is sacked first Even if we think that Brady is going to do well here. How about you JJ anything else? We have not discussed yet on the board that you like here Yeah, well, I'm just thinking about why everyone's going to be watching this game And we're going to see that the chiefs get the ball first and we're just going to see the dominos Just start following after Uh, but yeah, so so I think I have two things that I'm just kind of watching for well one of them is not really I think that uh with Clyde Edwards a layer healthy I'm not really looking at the rushing props per se I'm not even necessarily looking at overs for him. Maybe aside from receiving yards But uh, I do think that you could look at Daryl Williams and take the unders on on most of his props And the main reason is when ceh has been healthy this year. He's basically seen A 70 backfield share in terms of running back rushes And if lavy on bell is healthy and playing then we might even see less Daryl Williams Even though Williams has been great I mean, he's arguably been the most impactful running back on that team this year Um, I would still take the unders on on a lot of Williams's props Then the other thing is more of a watch out. Um, but sammy walkins has been iffy It sounds like he's probably gonna play but uh, you know, he's just been iffy if you see the line change for me Cole hardman, uh, if you see that line go further down because sammy walkins is playing I would hit the overs for me Cole hardman because uh, we we traditionally have not seen in terms of splits Sammy walkins really affect me Cole hardman. It's usually been more of like a demarcus robinson type thing So just watch out for for me Cole hardman's lines when we get more information on sammy walkins Yeah, when sammy walkins was healthy weeks 12 through 16 me Cole hardman the same number of targets as walkins in that time and more deep targets Uh, total him is at 28 and a half for the receiving yards for me Cole hardman What about you at any other numbers we have not discussed yet that stand out to you at fandall sportsbook Yeah, I'm not sure what the price was for safety, but i'm always for uh They're not being a safety in the game. Uh, this is something that you definitely want a shop around because john shearin is a smart man Is probably want to give you like plus 700 or whatever Um, and I think you can kind of look at the historical You know rates of safety is yada yada yada, but um So sacks are are kind of a quarterback statistic and and top and these two quarterbacks tend to be pretty good at not Not taking sacks and getting rid of the ball. So I think that's another thing that points towards uh towards no safety In this game. Alrighty, we're gonna get everyone's best bet here in just one second But first the can city chiefs and tempe buccaneers Shocker news to you set to battle in the big game and fandall sportsbook is giving you a chance to get it on the action With some can't miss odds right now New users can wager up to five dollars on either the chiefs or the bucks to win at plus 5500 odds that is right a five dollar bet and either team can win you 275 dollars the biggest sunday of the year will be here right before you know it So download the fandall sportsbook app and make your first deposit to see the enhanced odds today Must be 21 plus in new jersey, pennsylvania, illinois, colorado, west virginia, iowa, virginia, michigan, tennessee or indiana New users only must wager in the decimated duke boost markets Deposit required max bonus 275 dollars see full terms at sportsbook dot fandall dot com gambling problem call 1 800 gambler or in colorado call 1 800 5 2 2 4700 in west virginia visit 1 800 gambler dot net in indiana call 1 800 9 with it or in tennessee call the red line 1 800 8 8 9 9 7 8 9 all right Let's close up here with if erin i gave you one bet to play for super bowl 55 It can be whatever you want him to be What is the best in which or what is the bet in which you had the most confidence for sunday? So the bet that i have the most confidence in i'm not going to get into nitty gritty of the props I'm pushing all the chips in to have bragging rights on the bucks money line. I don't care I want tom brady to win in a different uniform than the patriots I believe they will and I have to take the money line to get those bragging rights Um, I have nothing on the line because i'm not a huge fan of either of these teams So i'm a huge fan of tom brady. So that's my best bet I like how you can be a brady fan even though the eagles and the patriots have the You can't not be a brady fan. I mean the man's unbelievable I feel like it's wrong to like not be. I mean, are you guys not a brady fan? Is this I'm not a brady fan and this is kind of I don't know. I just like The michigan connection. What is that exactly? Well, I mean guys I moved here like what eight years ago So They're in you know, there's a sizable chunk of people in town that are kind of like You know like people that have like, you know, uh allegiances. Look, i'm just not i'm not a brady fan I know he's great. Yeah, it's like the goat though And I don't even mean saying it like the goat like we beat him in the super bowl So that's why i'm happy for the eagles because they beat the goat, but I mean you I feel like you can't knock tom brady So the problem is he's great. I'm not i'm not saying i'm i'm saying he absolutely deserves all the accolades But i'm just you know, I mean There's nothing You don't like the selfie videos after the games He's very good at posting selfie videos after the games I understand how great he's been and you know, I mean, this is what I like about sports betting Because jim, you know, I've been talking about how the upside of this tampa bay offense Yeah, it doesn't matter. It doesn't matter the tom brady It doesn't matter that I'm not a huge fan of the quarterback. You see the numbers you see the man play He is my age at 43 and he's chopping bombs down field And scoring touchdowns and that's all you need to see and this is why betting is great. I like it So, you know, you you know case gonna have uh, sorry air is gonna have uh, I got your middle name mix up You know, you know, you're gonna have a little bit more excitement when some of your bets win But i'm gonna be excited when mine, uh, win as well And absolutely My reasoning is I grew up a jets fans. So if you're watching on youtube right now I've got my james chadwick pennington figurine on my desk Uh, that's why I can't cheer for tom brady. It's legally not allowed JJ what about for you? What if I gave you one bet for this game? Which one would you go to there? Yeah, so look, I I I've mentioned this earlier But I actually think these defenses at least have some sort of matchup that they can exploit positively And so, you know, if you're looking at the buccaneers pass rush and their d line against this banged up offensive line for Kansas City That's a plus matchup And if you look at Kansas City's defense, which by the way, I mentioned this to jim earlier today But I feel like the steve spagnolo and Angle hasn't been really brought up that frequently In this game because you look at what he did with the giants against tom brady and the super bowl way back in the day Um, and and he was able to contain brady and and really bring that offense down You know, it's just a fun little narrative to to bring up But the other thing with this this chief's defense the way he runs this chief's defense I mentioned earlier. They're not bad. They're very good at at not giving up those massive massive plays They're a bend, but don't break type d and then if you look at what this arian's Offense generally wants to do it's throw the ball down the field at least at a higher rate than The average and really a much higher rate than what we've seen with tom brady over the last five to ten years So I think there's a little bit of an advantage for both defenses to some degree Despite the fact that these are two top five offenses. So as a result, my favorite bet is the under so jj hates fun That's good to know. Uh, that's super exciting. And what about for you? What is your favorite bet here for super bowl 55? Yeah, you know, I'm gonna stick with tom brady And I think my favorite bet is getting plus money for zero Interceptions man, like I like it, you know, he threw three like I think that's really had he not thrown three in that championship game That market would be way different But you know, there's a lot of people that are betting on him to throw pick and uh, the contrarian and me, uh, really likes Really likes him to throw no picks Okay, I like you know, it's like it's one of these agonizing bets where you got to wait the whole day Right because he couldn't be down You know a point late in the game, you know At a place where you need to make some plays and that's gonna that's gonna be You know, that's gonna cost some sweats, but I can't I can't wait for the hell mary at the end Mary called by travis kelsey Thrown by tom brady for an interception for travis kelsey. That's what's gonna happen If you can parlay that I don't know if john sheeran's listening if we can get that But like let's get that travis kelsey interception over point five. I want that Okay, uh, we're gonna build the same game parlayer for my favorites bet for this one because We have a unique advantage here with the Super Bowl We have so many markets available to us and we should take advantage with correlated markets because If I think lennon for that's gonna do well that inherently means I think that ronald jones will not do well So we're gonna build one out here. We're gonna take lennon for net anytime touchdown score. That's plus 125 We're gonna take lennon for net rushing yards over 48 and a half and we're gonna scroll down to ronald jones rushing yards Take the under here at 35 an app. You compare those up for plus 608 over at fan dual sports book with a same game parlay I think this is a unique chance to take advantage of having so many markets available to us I know the fans of sportsbook at least I I pretty sure john sheeran accounts for the correlations between same game parlays But they are being generous to you in offering these same game parlays Take advantage with correlated markets like this I think that you could do a similar thing with uh, what jj mentioned with daryl Williams unders and clad edwards elare overs potentially 18 and a half receiving yards for for ceh I think that's super advantageous, but give me for nets over rojo for super bowl 55 That is all the time that we have for today here on covering the spread our first ever live edition and likely not the Last I'll probably bring this back next week or next month as well So look forward for that. But first I want to thank our guest here today JJ Zacharyson and erin dole and erin thank you so much for your time. Good luck to you on sunday Of course. Thank you. I'll uh, hopefully I have some bragging rights Monday morning. I'll tweet him at you Absolutely jj for your sake. I hope that fade and I guess mine too since we're both on you know A couple of things that are similar. I hope for your sake and mine that the fade jj movement falls short I mean look, we're we're gonna know early on if whoever gets the ball first That's just the way that that this game is gonna go for me If the if the bucks get it first, I'm gonna be feeling good if the chiefs do it's game over It's gonna be a sad night if the chiefs get the ball first jj's logging out for us I'm gonna be this entire podcast betting all the jj stuff And I want to thank you as well trust with with player type uh with player type numbers Thank you. Right exactly. And so we are all on board with team jj here ed What do you have going on over at the power rank and on the football analytic show this week? Yeah, I was fortunate enough to have two really awesome guests to talk not only the Super Bowl but props Matt Friedman of the action network joined me late last week. I just awesome conversation Really interesting story about how we broke into the field. He was doing eight podcasts at Like as a part-timer like Like unbelievable stuff. Like I like talking about eight as a full timer. Yeah, great. Exactly Exactly. So I enjoy talking to people who make me make me Just acknowledge my laziness as a person Stories like that And then this week I uh, I had Rufus Peabody on the show Uh, uh, obviously someone that doesn't need any introduction as a professional sports better and someone who really gets into Super Bowl props So we talked about his models talked about the game. Um, so I think uh, you know to the better episodes I've had So that's that's going on in football analytic show Perfect. Check that out there check out ed on twitter at the power rank as well You can find erin on the air Every morning on the early line on sports grid on serious xm check her out on twitter as well at erin k dolin You can find jg on the late round podcast feed and also on twitter at late round qb I am at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s our daily fantasy preview of Super Bowl 55 already posted With myself and brandon gedula breaking down. Uh, how we're seeing things from a single game dfs perspective You can find that by searching for the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed big Thank you to calvin fee of all our rock star video producer for running the video side of things here today Thank you cal as always and thank you to everyone for tuning in this live edition of covering the spread Hopefully it was as fun for you as it was for us. Good luck to you with your bets And we'll talk to you once again next week after Super Bowl 55 This has been covering the spread right here on the fan duo podcast network