 Okay, very good morning to you Monday 14th of June. Hope you enjoyed the sunshine this weekend Well done to the England football team for getting things under way at the Euros with a win Novak Djokovic for winning the French Open and happy birthday to the Queen who's celebrated at the weekend her Unofficial birthday given the fact of course she has two birthdays her real one being in April, but the summer Celebrations happening at this weekend. So getting things underway then I'm gonna talk about more on the news and the Fundamental kind of outlook for the week rather than going to the charts in greater detail I'll save that for the Amplify live community on discord to go through and share a few levels and so on If you're not part of that community, don't forget just go to Amplify live comm There is an absolutely free level of subscription don't need to put in any car details anything like that So do check it out and if you're watching this on YouTube, don't forget to like and subscribe to the channel Really appreciate it. But look, let's get straight into it and talk about the this photo shoot It's not a new album cover or anything like that It is in fact the G7 and the heads of state Deering to social distancing rules still of course at least for the time being and likely to be rolled over in the case of The UK as we were expecting that announcements come out of Boris Johnson later on tonight But what happened at the G7? Well, I really like the summary Title the Bloomberg went with this morning and they said America isn't quite back Europe isn't that united and Brexit still isn't done Feels like we haven't really progressed a great deal in recent times But over the key subjects, I guess first thing is anything that came out of the G7 really is not Important for how markets opening this morning This is very much more top-level more longer term conversations They're having than anything immediate for market prices trading for Monday morning But on the the kind of thorny issue of China of which Biden's mission was to kind of go in and collectively unite among a number of these Nations to have a strong clear defined front against China They called on the country to respect human rights in its Xinjiang region and allow Hong Kong a high degree of autonomy and refrain from any unilateral action that would destabilize the east and south China see China and their embassy though have come out this morning in response to that kind of headline G7 statement and said that the G7 as a gross interference in the country's internal affairs and Urged the group to stop slandering China. So Pretty much Status quo for the time being then at this point and so I guess if that was Biden's agenda He's kind of loosely achieved that at the moment But as Piers and I were talking about in the podcast on Friday It's kind of a delicate balance because all of these countries obviously have their own individual Relationships with China, but do also want to be aligned with the US and so there comes the kind of tricky balance So I don't think anything too surprising on that front on the COVID side They promised to deliver at least one billion extra doses of vaccines over the next year again I don't really see that as too much of a market moving event and that was fairly telegraphed from what we had going into the event Anyway, and Russia they reiterate interest in a stable predictable relationship with Russia and will continue to Engage where there are areas of mutual interest because as you'll see there's there's no Putin here But Biden of course is meeting Putin later on this week and we'll have a look at that calendar of main events in a moment Otherwise then terms of the Asia-Pacific session things were very quiet So I'll give you a quick skin or scan of the charts. I should say Asian equity markets Lighter because of the fact we've had holiday thin conditions with the absence of areas like Australia Where there are in observance of the Queen's birthday as I mentioned Mainland China Hong Kong Taiwan extended weekends for the Dragon Boat Festival So we initially hit fresh record high in the S&P 500 again in the overnight sessions So just adding to the generally higher close we saw at the end of last week in the US indices We've just faded a little bit there But basically unchanged in the futures market Elsewhere WTI crude up 37 cents so still tracking higher for the time being and obviously on the multi-year chart We continue to trade up to the highest level since went into 2018 the next area of upside resistance for Not just a session, but this week be looking at 72 43 and then higher up at the 75 handle as overall targets So we continue to see a decent progressive move to the upside on further reopening and demand side More positive catalysts happening there Elsewhere in the FX markets daughter index is actually flat at the moment But just generally holding on to gains that we see in the end of last week And so both major pairs are unchanged in the top left hand corner Euridor and cable But lower from where we were training obviously at the end of last week And then gold has seen a fairly meaningful move. No real new catalyst here We're down about 15 bucks going into the open just a continuation of the trend that we saw From Friday's session and a breakthrough some of those lower bound levels that we were seeing back on Thursday But let's get straight into a couple of the headline stories First of all talking about the UK lockdown Well telegraphed and talked about Mike and I would we're looking at these numbers two weeks ago And we felt very confident on the fact that it seemed most sensible for the UK government to delay the planned final of the Four-step reopening roadmap on June 21st And we're expecting the Prime Minister to come out and give a speech later on this evening to confirm What is the Times Monday edition said that Johnson senior ministers including Rishi Sunak the Chancellor have signed off a four-week delay And that's going to be reviewed in two weeks time and will be data dependent again in summary the idea being to get all of the Over-50s vaccinated some of which are still awaiting their second dose and then to give them time for then the general Effectiveness of that vaccine to really kick in as it enhances over time And then also to come inside with the summer term for school kids in order to lower the transmission Given the fact that younger people are still not Inoculated at this point in time. So don't think it's a surprise. I don't necessarily think it's a particular Significant headwind for the for the pound overall, but there is a lot of UK data coming out this week We'll talk about that in a moment On the Brexit side of things As the G7 this was kind of a side point of things that are going on So as anticipated ahead of the grace period exploration I was talking about last week of that Initial agreement to smooth those of the transition into Brexit that we had in the new year over the issue of Northern Ireland and trade The kind of war of words continues So the Prime Minister Boris Johnson said you leaders are acting in their draconian way Over trade checks on goods and will not hesitate to suspend the Northern Ireland Protocols so again I don't really read too much into this is as to be expected And if anything I'd expect the rhetoric to get even more intense probably over the coming weeks before inevitably they They kind of roll this over as they continue to focus all sides on the continued reopening vaccination programs Oil markets site I briefly showed you are trading up at a multi-year high So 32 months high in fact as Bloomberg is suggesting a couple of different things from the weekend Iraq, which is OPEC's second largest oil producing country did say at the weekend that crude prices will be in a range of 68 to 75 dollars a barrel In the second half of the year and they say that's because of the commitment that OPEC plus has in order to keep Output cuts in place to support the ongoing recovery in the economy at the moment post a pandemic Still tracking at the moment the US Iran nuclear talks They are due to to recommence in the coming days However, Iran's deputy foreign minister has said at the weekend and basically comments that cast out on any type of agreement ahead of The new election they're having to elect a new president on June 18th So in a few days time in Iran so again not expecting any type of breakthrough ahead of that kind of more Transition phase that they're going to go through within their own government at this point in time Interesting thing I know some people look at the CFTC data just general market positioning and according to weekly data and money managers now boosted their WTI Bets to the most bullish in three years now for WTI crude futures, and I think I've got a chart here Yeah, you can see it here. This is looking at WTI net long positions And as you can see it's the highest in almost three years and again underpinning this is Just further reopening this I was looking at some data points talking about the traffic volumes of air flights For citizens and movement around the US being the highest it's been so far and further reopening As that continues to happen both here and other places from around the world It continues to support demand with OPEC as Iraq were suggesting continues to support the market on the supply side Other things to be aware of Bitcoin can't go Without mentioning it of course and it did feel like it's got a bit quiet for me long musk after he had Kind of string of market moving tweets for different assets Whether his own company or crypto related Over the last two or three weeks, but he's back with the vengeance and this time in a more positive fashion Bitcoin actually trading higher over the weekend in reaction to his latest comments seemingly he's back on board with Bitcoin after being Obviously saying that he could potentially look to exit that market given the fact of the environmental impact He's now saying he was in response to a conversation from a from an article that came out And he was talking about that when there's confirmation of reasonable I circa 50% of clean energy usage by miners with positive future trends and Tesla would resume allowing Bitcoin transactions and Bitcoin futures are back up in close proximity to 40,000 overnight up around 2,000 bucks at last count Terms of the schedule for this week are going to run through a couple of different things As you can see here, you've got an EU US summit taking place in Brussels on Tuesday, so The conversation kind of continues if you like on the back of the G7 Not that I'm expecting too much of a great deal of specifics that are going to come out of these conversations Otherwise then going to turn my head to something that doesn't actually appear on here on Bloomberg Which is UK data? You've got UK jobs on Tuesday got US CPI on Wednesday He's got US retail sales on Friday So it's quite a big week for data points as a headline year-on-year CPI is the expected to rise to 1.8 percent in May from the prior 1.5 and that would put us back at as far as that reading on the year-on-year basis to pre-pandemic levels of inflation in terms of the UK So 1.8 percent obviously getting close to that 2% Hypothetical threshold that they have albeit we know that they'll probably allow it to run a little hotter In a variance through that given the transitory view that central banks and develop Western world hold on the other side of things though in terms of retail sales Potentially of moderated month-on-month if you think that this data is actually for the month of May and so cold and wet Weather, I know we've just had an amazing weekend of weather here in the UK and actually you've had a good Kind of one two weeks now of hot weather But may was a bit of a washout and so that's probably going to offset the positive forces underpinned Then in the data from general reopening of non-essential shops that were seen so it's going to be kind of growth in the area, but Perhaps some moderation in regards to what we've seen before And otherwise away from that going to focus then on the Fed So Wednesday we get the latest FOMC meeting and a few months ago This was kind of coined as a big one where tapering was going to be a real tangible prospect Given the fact that they've got the new summary of economic projections And we thought this might be the time then that they'll pick to start start really saying we're going to start The process of thinking of tapering and that was going to be the commencement of the sequence then to that eventuality happening But things have changed. We're definitely not there yet going off a combination of what the Fed officials have been saying Where the economic data sides at the moment whether it be the markets ability to read through Inflation because of the areas seen as temporary factors that are guiding it higher in Combination with the slightly lackluster job return that we've seen in the last two payrolls reports in particular as well So the actual Fed meeting probably not quite as exciting as it was being queued up for a few weeks ago, but Couple of things to be aware of for one There's going to be no changes in policy at all But we do get the latest summary of economic projections and that's going to be quite key Of course because people are going to be looking out for these dot plots now a couple things about the dot plots Which is the feds forward-looking rate expectations? So at least two more 2023 dots would need to rise for the medium dot plot to begin pricing in basically a hike for 2023 at the earliest so this is what I'm talking about. This is the dot plot here forms part of that summary of economic projections and we need two more to come off the low here that would move this green line to a Slightly steeper trajectory i.e. bringing forward the interest rate rise from through 2023 into 2023 now Fed officials could project interest rate lift off then in 2023 amid faster economic growth and inflation, but they won't signal scaling back purchases until August or September according to the latest Economist survey from those Spoken to you by Bloomberg that's just been out this morning Fed officials they say More than half or in terms of economists more than half predict The dot plot will show the median of 18 officials penciling in at least one 2023 increase So more than half of the economists on the street think that that's actually going to materially change and we'll see the medium Pick up a little bit here most investors still don't think the Fed will begin tapering Until early 2022 with guidance an exact approach delivered in more detail around September this year at the latest And a lot of people of course looking at the Jackson Hole symposium late August Has to kind of precursor for them betting that in To be discussed more efficiently in a format to be conveyed then in the next summary of economic projections Which comes June another quarters time in September and then that cues us up then for tapering to commence in the new year Next year is the kind of time frames. We're looking at at the moment. So, yeah, that'll be a fed. We'll cover that in full So let's check that out. And I've got a masterclass guest coming to join the Amphi live community as well On Wednesday just before the Fed comes out. So for the guys in the community Got a really great speaker used to be a bond trader started back in 87 in fact what a year to begin your career Traded at Lehman's Merrill Lynch Credit Suisse And then went on to prop trade as well. So I'm sure he's gonna have some valuable insights to share now be on Wednesday Otherwise back to the Calendar of the other things working out for so as I said earlier Joe Biden is gonna meet Vladimir Putin And they're gonna meet on Wednesday I guess the main point to look out for here is it's not about what details that they come out of as Real results from these conversations more about the atmosphere of the dialogue between the two and whether or not that There is a joint statement at the end, which is typically seen as a more positive outcome rather than the two You know hitting heads and then going their separate ways So it's more gonna be based on how successful that meeting is on that kind of outcome on that level So it's very much more broad. It's more about do they get on is there a joint statement at the end and do they commit to Then continue dialogue to meet again in future. It's about the best you could hope for from that situation Janet Yellen testifies for the house panel Thursday on the federal budget and then the Bank of Japan have their policy decision at the end of the week and We're not expecting any policy changes there But source reports recently have noted the bank is to consider a six month extension to its September deadline for the pandemic relief program As soon as this upcoming rate meeting could be something to look for so overall a Much more busy week than what we had last week Which I know was slightly frustrating and how quiet it was if you're a day trader this week completely different Pretty slow start as far as today is concerned Taking the baton from a very quiet holiday impacted Asia Pat session But you just need to hold tight things really kick off from Tuesday Fed on Wednesday Tuesday as well You do also get us data In the form of the industrial production and producer prices retail sales all coming out So couple things definitely to to look out for there as well. All right, that's it guys Good leave you to it and I will see you in the chat room. Take care. Have a great week. Thanks very much