 This is covering the spread. Here are your hosts Jim Sonnes and Dr. Ed Fang What is going on everybody? Welcome on into covering the spread That's right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire comm or today We are previewing week number 11 in the NFL with Joe Ostrowski of radio comm and 670 the score to get his thoughts And the favorite bets for this week. My name is Jim Sonnes I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire comm joined here as always by dr. Ed Fang You can find his work over at the powerank comm Ed onto week 11 and thanks getting just around the corner How are you doing today? I'm doing pretty good. You mentioned yesterday that you're gonna stop complaining about games I'm not gonna stop complaining about games because I felt like I had that Buffalo Plus two at Arizona in the bag felt pretty good about it. My dog was Going crazy. So so we ended up going out and taking a four-walk before the end of the game So I kind of streamed the I streamed the Hail Mary I walk I was like, yeah That's a bummer away to lose. Yeah, I didn't even lose but to go from a win to a push Right. I didn't even see what did they just decide not to kick the extra point So, yeah, that's what happened is it was actually there were two different like crazy betting Situations in the NFL on Sunday That was one of them because there were a lot of people who were on the bills plus three actually, I think that either two and a half or three and Because the Cardinals the way it works is if they get that extra point blocked and the bills are turning for for all the Way, that's two points for the bills. Yep They decided rather than risk that they would take a knee They took a knee on the extra point rather than kicking it and as a result You got the push and a lot of other people got the cover They had the bills plus two and a half So that was one the crazy thing the other one was the Nick Chubb run for the Browns because a lot of people had the Texans Plus the points and they were down by three if Chubb scores It's a nine-point game and they lose all those tickets I think that dr. Eric Eger is one of the people who was like shouting on Twitter How much he loved Nick Chubb for for running out of bounds for that? So like there were a lot of smart people on both the bills plus two plus two and a half or whatever it was and The Texans plus four. I think it was where it closed around So there were some some good breaks for sure The Hail Mary was not a good break for you, but the extra point didn't hurt things Yeah No, the extra point was good and plus like I bet they ran out those two seconds too So the game is just over and they only have to kick off Well, that's an untimed down so they did it. They did have to kick Oh, right. Yes, they had to kick But basically they just had to not give up a touchdown on the kick effectively right because like you're not gonna get a field goal You would need a long return and a penalty in order to get a field goal So they kind of knew that that wasn't gonna happen The Chubb one I think you could have made the case for him scoring because then they would have been up two scores with You know 40 or whatever seconds left, but like they got to Neil So it made sense that that he yeah, but that was definitely a weird way to have things break for sure in two separate games where Decisions dictated whether a team covered or not. Yeah, I mean, I don't really think it mattered But I mean Chubb probably should have taken the needs that are running out of bounds, but right I think we said he forgot he said he was running and he got it to the 10-yard line. He's like Whoops, I was supposed to go down You just like panicked and he ran out of bounds because he's like I don't know what to do Yeah, which is fine. Yeah, but just an interesting week across the board with those two games Breaking the way they did. Hopefully we get some good breaks again in week 11 We're talking Joe Ostrowski and just a bit here to break down week number 11 You can find Joe on Twitter at Joe oh six seven zero four six seventy the score you can find on bet sweats Which is on radio.com And also six seventy the score in Chicago We're gonna preview week 11 of the NFL pretty fun week with two really good prime-time games We got chiefs Raiders and we also have the Rams versus the Bucks We'll talk about both those games and Joe's thoughts on them from a betting perspective You're looking for some college insights We had Megan Nunez a fan duel on yesterday to preview week 12 in college football get her thoughts on Two really big big 10 games and also some smaller school games that Megan likes to get those insights search for covering the spread wherever you get your podcast and you can also Rate and review the podcast as well. Make sure you are subscribed because next week We have a fun show coming for you on Tuesday just one show next week with a pretty special guest So looking forward to that and it should be a whole lot of fun before we get to Joe though We got to go back to last week. Take a look at what happened including that Hail Mary between the bills and the Cardinals Covering the past So let's start things off here and covering the past with that bills Cardinals game You had the bills plus two against the Cardinals a close to Cardinals minus three, but I was on board with you I thought that The bills were the correct side in this one given that you know The Cardinals offense at times has been a little bit fluky and it looks really good for a while But then Kyler Murray hit Deandre Hopkins with the Hail Mary to win and For the push for you with the you know the kneeling there that definitely did help But still a bummer not to get the outright win the bills inability to convert the red zone the first half was also a contributor there And that was pretty frustrating to watch any final thoughts for you on that one Ed Well one thought I mean Kevin Cole posted this week about how most of Kyler Murray's EPA Per play is coming on his run plays so it's not necessarily what he's doing with his arm But what he's doing with his legs, which I thought was pretty interesting He asked whether that's sustainable and I think anytime a quant guy asks whether something is Sustainable, it's probably not so that's definitely something I'll be tracking, right? I mean he's clearly a great athlete and he's gonna be able to make plays with his legs But just maybe not at the rate that he's done so far this year And yeah, you know hey Deandre Hopkins made a great catch. What are you gonna do? I mean you could cover him. I guess I did they had four dudes on him Right, I don't know man. I Well, I had Kyler Murray in a lot of DFS lineup, so I was pretty happy about it Then I remembered that you had the plus two and I'm like, oh man Well, you know, I'm still gonna be happy for myself at least but you got to push at least so yeah And it's you know, it's been this evolution where now I'm on the bills Whereas earlier in the season I wasn't and I had the Rams in that game where the bills got that past interference Oh, yeah, yep to you know to push a win to a loss. So you know Well, you were not the only one frustrated on Sunday We'll talk about that in a second the other one you had was the Seahawks plus two against the Rams This is another game where there was crazy line movement towards the Rams late They've had that happen like every game this year They closed his three-point favorites and they were able to keep the Seahawks offense in check and win that game 23 to 16 My frustration was I had the over at 44 and a half for the Eagles and the Giants and that actually closed at 46 So one and a half points the good and the weather wound up being worse than expected It was 18 mile per hour wins. They were at seven miles per hour when we were courted. So that helped or that hurt I mean, I look good in the third quarter because at the end of the third quarter They were at 38 points with 520 left in the third course. They did just a touchdown to get there I would have been 39 But the Eagles actually went for two and didn't make it analytically apparently it made sense for the Eagles to Go for two and I think that was probably the right call It was not good for the over though as we saw in the fourth quarter because they needed to touch down to get to 45 points Instead there were two field goals. So the under hit by half a point. That is the second time in the past few weeks I have missed by half a point had the the Broncos team total that went under my half points So that's not super fun both times an extra point was involved because the Broncos missed an extra point Here the Eagles went for two didn't get it. So I'm perturbed to say the least and we'll talk more about the Broncos in my cover in the future again for today because I've just had a bad run so you've had the two the two late calls with the the Hail Mary and the Phantom passenger clearance. I've missed by half a point twice It's been a rough year for for for close games for sure You had a half a yard one to between can Newton and the Seahawks earlier in the year Yeah, the Patriots. Yeah, so that stuff happens. We got a bounce back We'll try to bounce back with Joe Ostrowski here in just a bit But first betting on the NFL is great betting on the NFL a Fandall sports book is even better right now Fandall sports book is giving you a chance to bet on the NFL season with reduced risk with their exclusive same game Parley insurance Simply place a three leg or more parley of any NFL game to be eligible for the offer and follow along as the game unfolds If you don't win your bet Fandall will refund your bet up to $25 in site credit What do you have to lose had a Vandall sports book and plays your same game parley today must be 21 plus and present in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, West Virginia, Indiana, Colorado, Tennessee, or Iowa Refund issued as a non-withdrawable site credit with max refund $25 terms apply gambling problem called 1 800 gambler in West Virginia Visit 1 800 gambler net in Indiana call 1 800 9 with it in Colorado call 1 800 5 2 2 4700 in Iowa call 1 800 bets off Let's get set for week number 11 now with Joe Ostrowski once again five to my Twitter at Joe 06 70 you can also find my bet sweats and on radio comm and on 670 the score. Let's get his thoughts on well should be a pretty fun week 11 slate of games Covering the present Let's bring Joe Ostrowski back into covering the spread to preview week 11 of the NFL Joe You're a busy guy, so I appreciate you taking the time. How you doing today? Doing well I was actually reminded of you guys just the other week because the baseball season ended what a couple months ago Yeah, and so now they start to hand out their awards And the last time we spoke on covering the spread was when it was back in February Yep, before the season was delayed and all that we found out that when we thought there was gonna be 162 games, right? And we were going over all the different awards and I was reminded like wow We nailed the National League sigh young And I went back and listen like what numbers did we give out at the time in February and we were talking about Bauer at 50 to 1 and also you Darvish in that 25 to 30 to 1 rain So at least we nailed that one. Yeah You're saying we Joe, but that was you You need to like Accept the fact that you were the one pumping bower. I'm okay with the the Darvish one I was fully on board with I was more skeptical of Bauer But 50 to 1 given what he obviously those would have been voided based on I think most those got voided based on the the shortened season, but like That's a good number and I think the process that you had was correct and Trevor Bauer Kind of the kind of guy you want to bet on because he's a psychopath in a good way in at times Now he's gonna get so many dollars from some team even though people think that okay These owners aren't gonna spend much just wait till we see that Bauer contract But I needed the Jim Sonnis when it comes to baseball I needed the confirmation from Jim Sonnis before I could move forward So I got exactly what I needed especially with the you Darvish like you were all it on the you Darvish Okay, so like I'm glad did you actually like did you have a ticket on Bauer before things got refunded? Oh No, of course you mean after it after everything got refunded. Yeah, did you have did you want to breathe betting him later on? No, no, I see this is what sucks See and we're gonna talk about some of these futures is I've been very hesitant with all of these futures because of all the issues that we've seen and There's been some public fighting between some betters and some books in recent months. Yeah, it's been a mess So I've been very limited on my futures wagers so far after after that one got refunded I still felt good about it, but I'm I didn't I don't know what we're gonna see in the 60 days sample Like I'm in Chicago. I'm the moron. I didn't bet on Jose Abreu I should have he was he was a hundred to one about a week before the season started But I was all in on you on Moncada Okay, so I had Moncada at like 75 to 1 and then the season got postponed that got wiped out I think you reopened it like 33 ish or something like that was gone. No, it was gone completely gone Yeah, but yeah, I didn't so I didn't bet that one. Yeah, and he had COVID never really recovered from that So that was that was tough to you Darvish American League Cy Young in 2021 for the Minnesota Twins, then we're talking after the Twins deal for Darvish Oh, we'll talk it. We're gonna talking to that in next February, Joe You'd Darvish to an AL Cy Young for the Minnesota Twins. It'll happen I know you didn't call for the baseball and everybody's like shut up guys or the right But Jim I I don't think that's insane because as we all know by now feel fst Down and I think it was actually the right move because he was only gonna be there for one more year Hey, Jed Hoyer, okay You go do this have fun have fun trading bias and or Bryant and Schwarber and see how everybody reacts They might be moving Darvish that a contract actually looks pretty valuable right now. Oh, yeah, absolutely And there are any twins people I will say talking about you Darvish. So I'm just saying it might happen We'll have you on back in February to talk about that but you mentioned the futures market Let's kind of dive into that here because it is an interesting time because we're getting to the stretch run We kind of have a better picture of the way things are shaping up And I wanted to talk to you about the NFC side of things because we've been talking about trying to find a Frontrunner, I guess in the NFC on the show for a couple weeks now leading into the the Saints buccaneers game We had whale capper on to talk about that and we didn't really know who the front runner What was right now? It's the Saints at three to one Do you see any value for them or any others based on the odds at fan dual sportsbook on the NFC side of things? Speaking of hesitant to jump in on futures. We are now entering week number 11 in the national football league Do we know the playoff format yet? They said that they might add another playoff team We might not have any buys right like we don't know right now, right? Okay, just making sure I know I know that it's 2020 in a nutshell right there So when you look at the top of the board is their value in New Orleans Green Bay and Tampa Bay the Saints are three to one But we don't know what's really happening with Michael Thomas much of their offense is so much yak With Camara of course and breeze unable to push the ball down the field And how long is he gonna be out is that injury going to linger throughout the year? Green Bay at four to one. They have an easy easy schedule moving forward if it is won by I could see the Packers Getting that week off. They have the Bears twice after this colds game, which could be the best game of the week They've got the Bears twice Philly Detroit Carolina all there to wrap up the season It lightens up for Seattle. It really does after this Thursday game It weeks 12 through 15 They go a month and they're just playing the NFC East and the Seahawks are sitting there at 7 to 1 this could be the bilo spot for Seattle and I'm also taking a look at Arizona they have some very winnable games down the stretch now They've needed some magic to get some of their six wins that they've they've gotten so far But they've got the Giants Philly New England San Francisco all remaining on their schedule I'm not taking a look at the top few teams with New Orleans Green Bay Tampa Bay There's absolutely no value there right now I know of course any of those teams could end up winning a wide open NFC, but I don't really see the value I'm I'm leaning towards the NFC West teams, but I I think it's priced into the fact that The sports works realize that none of these teams out of the West are going to get the buy So you have to be willing to accept that But Seattle and Arizona with a lot of winnable games moving forward They'll beat up on each other a little bit with divisional play, but that's where I think there actually is some value It's just it's so typical NFL like if we were to have this conversation three weeks ago The answers would be completely different because there was no value in Seattle and they had that five and oh start But with the ebbs and flow of football season, I still trust in Russell Wilson I don't think he's going to go another stretch where they lose three games, and he has ten turnovers Those three losses. I don't think that's going to happen. So I do see a little bit of value In those West teams with Seattle at 7 to 1 in Arizona attended one And I think even though we are pretty deep into the season like this is week 11 It's important to mention that the schedules still are not balanced because the Rams have already played all four NFC East teams like you said the Seahawks I don't know and they played any of them yet. Like I barely barely have so it's important like the schedules are not balanced yet I think that's important to stress here as you did there Yeah, no Seattle hasn't played any of them They've got four games in a row against the NFC East so the Washington defense is pretty good But they should sweep that they just sweep the division So I mean all those teams are probably sweep the NFC East which is yeah, you know the conversation for another day Joe just in thinking about this futures, you know, I mean, I'm a big Saints I'm a big believer in the Saints, but just with the injury to breeze and the uncertainty about him coming back Does that make you more want to go in on one of these NFC West teams right now? Just because it doesn't seem like the markets have adjusted for that possibility Yeah, I think you're right there Yeah, because they they are the favorite right now on Fandall at three to one that may that certainly does make sense Well, the reason it's so wide open and we're having this conversation and we can go I don't we can have a real talk about seven different teams coming out of the NFC Is because every one of these teams is very flawed Even when you look at the top of the board with the Saints, they have their own issues too And it's the same thing with the Packers the Bucks. Oh, I mean Seahawks This is this could go down as one of the worst past defenses if not the worst that we've ever seen Which is just mind-blowing this deep into the season. So yeah, I That's another reason why I would look further down the board What's the point in jumping on a team? That's three to one or four to one that is so flawed Maybe in a few weeks from now if you do still like the Saints You can get some more value with them if the market sees okay They're probably not going to get the buy then you'll get a juicer your number So stick with the NFC West because I think that's like the most fun Division right now because you have three legitimately good teams It's not just like the NFC East where anyone could win because they're all bad like they're all legit good the NFC West We're not going to talk about the game tonight between the Cardinals and the Seahawks because we're recording a little too close to kick off But you see any value right now in the NFC West odds at Fandals sportsbook Yeah, even though I just told you how it's gonna lighten up for the Seahawks And there should be a stretch where they're winning all the games Well Fandals taking that into account and they have them as the favorite even though we have a three-way tie in the division At the moment with all six and three records. They are the favorite. They're just barely over even money at plus 125 and I'm probably a little biased because I'm holding a Cardinals to win the West ticket at plus 750 From right before the season started and at times I thought about ripping up that ticket the way Cliff Kingsbury has been running things But luck has been on my side with some of these victories for Arizona But yeah, when you look at it with the Seahawks plus 125 the Rams We always seem to skip over them at plus 165 and then the Cardinals at plus 250 I mentioned the Cardinals have a lot of winnable games as well and Just the disparity between Seattle and Arizona The Arizona ticket is double like plus 250 if if you were to force me to put money down right now And I'm forgetting about what I'm already holding. I would take a look at Arizona plus 250 Excellent Let's move on to some other games. We have Tennessee at Baltimore Baltimore's six and a half point favorite totals at 48 and a half Baltimore's offense hasn't looked good all season Tennessee is coming off a Game where they didn't really show up in the second half. What do you see in in this game? So I guess we don't say the fraudulent Tennessee Titans anymore because We're losing games. So now that kind of goes out the window here, even though there's still six and three They are not covering the number. They are three and six against the spread They only win over the last month against the Bears just like everybody's beating up on the Bears Well, even that one they almost blew like they tried really hard to not cover that game. Oh cover Yeah, yeah, the Bears couldn't do anything against a terrible defense. What else is new? We just witnessed that on Monday The number surprised me a little bit. I was curious what it was going to be off that National stage performance by the Ravens losing outright to the Patriots and crushing every money line parlay Teaser and a lot of people out of some survivor pools there The Ravens don't look good. The injury report is really what bothers me with the Ravens I after the fact on Sunday when you looked at it like, okay, I'll check getting a touchdown Look at look at all of these injuries on the Ravens and as you mentioned recording this on Thursday Two starters on the defensive line for the raiders Clay's Campbell Brandon Wimps did not practice Jimmy Smith was back on the practice field And I'm sure a lot of people are expecting a bounce back performance from the Ravens We've seen that many many times before But I don't trust them where I've got to beat Titans by a touchdown and they still do have Somewhat explosive offense Titans number two and passing DV away offensive DV away They're number three overall, but obviously the defense is the big concern 28th in yards per drive allowed I would lean towards the Titans just taking all of those points a lot of it It's just a fate against Baltimore and their injury situation right now the way Lamar jacks is playing It's not enough for you to feel good about the Titans though, right? It's more You just can't you can't bet the Ravens despite the fact that That we're fading the Titans and stuff like that But you can't it's not enough where you're willing to feel good about the top betting Titans here, right? So I'm in like some ATS pools where I've got to pick five or seven games. Yeah at six and a half I would take the Titans, but it's not one that I feel great about it's not like one of my top three favorite plays And at this point in the season guys as you guys know man the market just sharpens up so quickly in the NFL It feels like we've been there a month already where these lines are so damn difficult. Yeah, it's it's tough for sure Okay, so pretty much stayed away from Tennessee at ball tomorrow. Let's move now to the Chiefs at the Raiders We've seen some movement here because the Raiders entire defense is basically on the COVID list The Chiefs are eight point favorites now total is 56 and a half And the Raiders have been a nice little surprise this year and they actually did beat the Chiefs straight up an arrowhead earlier on so How are you seeing this game play out? I know there's some uncertainty here But what's your read on this game with the Chiefs is eight point favorites? You guys must love all the narratives for this one No offense as the numbers show I mean Andy read off the buy right? Yeah, he did three straight up 14 and 7 Against the spread like the double revenge They the Raiders already won and then they were celebrating on the field to Mention that specifically in his press conference Joe. That's got to be worth at least six points, right? At least and it's a division game and it's a division game. So yeah I mean It's interesting because this came down because of some of the COVID concerns with the Chiefs offensive line It looks like it's pretty good, but on Thursday in the morning I noticed a lot of the Vegas books half of them took it down and then the ones that had it up like they were reposting it at seven and a half and Getting close to eight like a juice seven and a half and I think that's probably where it's gonna Close as long as they're all right as far as the roster goes as far as the the Chiefs offensive line here I mean look, I'm What's it gonna be 90% of the bets 95% of the bets are gonna be on the Chiefs Pat Mahomes at a revenge spot Pat Mahomes going against a soft defense the Raiders d 27 than points per drive allowed and then just about every metric you want to look at offensively number one number one number one I'm going to be laying it. I I just can't find myself I won't be able to take the Raiders. I feel every time We get the Chiefs inside of a touchdown if that's the number you're looking at right now It's a valuable spot. So I'm going to be betting Kansas City. No doubt Awesome, let's move to Monday night Rams at Bucks Big big game between two NFC contenders Bucks are three and a half point favorite Total of 47. How are you seeing this game? Yeah, man the schedule maker is not kind to the Rams at all with the travel spots This is their fifth Fifth time across the country now, they've done a good job most of the time they played NFCE so some very poor teams there and not quite Tampa Bay, but yeah, that is that is not easy to do Interesting spots here when you're looking at Tampa Bay. Are they looking ahead to the Chiefs? But it is Monday night football. So probably not they have struggled in prime time They lost a Thursday night game to the Bears and that was before the Packers matchup They just got by the Giants by two points and that was before a matchup against the Saints So I I do have my fair share of questions about Tampa Bay But but yeah, it ups and downs ups and downs for both of these teams as long as the line the line is still sitting there Three and a half right now for Tampa Bay. It's minus four now. Actually. Yep. Is it four? Yeah I don't I don't mind taking the underdog there. I'm gonna take the Rams and I will take all the points there But it another good game compared to last week with the NFL and college football I mean college football is brutal though, but yeah, we've got a bunch of really strong matchups Well, Joe, I want to go back to the the prime time thing Because Chris Ray Bonn of the action network actually mentioned that Tom Brady's bedtime is 8 30 like he actually goes to bed At 8 30 every night and I saw this on Twitter and I laughed and then I saw them play Monday night and I was like, oh, no like I'm not gonna buy into it, but I think it's hilarious and I kind of hope that's actually the reason they're underperforming Yeah, because that Thursday night game against the Bears, right? He's just don't pass his bedtime. Yeah That's how you know the down at the the last play of the game. They wouldn't admit it in the press conference But remember it was fourth down. They did not convert It was their last possession and he's staying on the field And the defenses are rushing off the Bears are celebrating and he's looking at the sideline holding four fingers up He's like Wait, it was three hours past his bedtime. Joe. What do you expect? He's you know, he needs to sleep Man, this lineup of games is just right up your alley. Like we're talking about bedtime for Tom Brady Andy Reed off the by the narratives are everywhere. I'm imagining you guys are just fading all of that I think it's amazing. I think they're really like I'm never gonna make decisions based on narratives But I think they're hilarious and I enjoy looking at like last week in the nfl was every revenge game You had Duke Johnson. You had uh, cordial Patterson against the Vikings You had I think there was a coaching man show that's down for Patterson Yeah, yeah, exactly and Mike Zimmer is about to blow like blow his mind Because he's just so angry on the sidelines this week. We get anthony lin a former jets assistant coach against the jets I've got all of them. Joe. I am ready with these narratives, baby We're not we're not gonna come on prepared this week I wasn't even prepared for this anthony lin one that you were gonna throw at me Everyone's talking about the kaelin belage revenge game, but it's actually the anthony lin revenge game He's not a lot. No, you've got to reach a certain status to have a revenge game. No, you don't not here See, I'm all worried about taking the chargers and survivor pools Maybe I should it now because the roles are reversed and charges are favored by more than a touchdown You're saying I should go all in with the it's a double revenge game You got anthony lin and kaelin belage. I've been waiting all year for this. It's it's a lock. Joe It's a lock. Uh besides the anthony lin revenge game any other games you see with value jumping out of week 11 Uh, yeah, let's you want to talk about another narrative? Let's do it. Why not? I'm in Let's talk about mike tomlin, right? Okay And in a where a spot where maybe the Steelers are looking ahead to Thanksgiving night going against the baltimore ravens Are the Steelers is a mike tomlin club really gonna be prepared to blow out a team and back to back weeks Laying 10 points against the jags. This is not a wager on jake luden at all Not that impressive in the green bay game. They hung around because green bay was not interested then when they decided Hey, why don't we go out and win this game? They went out and won the game in the close loss there Um, I think the jaguars can actually hang around the defense isn't the worst in every metric out there now They're slightly slightly improving, but uh, you're giving me 10 points with the jaguars and against this Steelers team Yeah, I I think the Steelers stay undefeated But I will take those 10 points take them gladly and we're waiting on injury information with the quarterback a lot of books have The lines panthers game down right now. Maybe it's going to be pj walker game Maybe or it's going to be a hobbled bridge water there. Uh, the books that have kept the number up there throughout the week Have uh kept carolina as the slight favorite. I know it was three earlier in the week I think we're close to one and a half right now But um, mccaffrey's also out of that game I I have a lean on the detroit lines trying to get back to the 500 mark Yeah, last that I saw a vandal sports book It was one and a half and I think it's down right now But you're saying if there opens back up at one and a half you're willing to go with detroit there Yeah, well we'll definitely have to see what the friday injury report says I don't know how Actually, it's just flipped they just reposted it's lions minus one and a half Is that enough where You're still going detroit or would that push you off the game totally? So are they telling us that the downgrade from bridge water to walker is three points four and a half points It was three. Yeah. Yeah, because if it was three Although that might have been factoring in the fact that staffer didn't practice on wednesday True But I think I would guess that the the straight up teddy to pj walker probably looks like three right now Yeah, it would be still a lean to the lions as long as we're inside of a field goal I I wonder where that that one will close as news gets everywhere and the public realizes that the guy they were watching in The xfl playing quarterback is going to be out on the field and for this panthers team Which has lost a lot of games in a row. I think people would end up Betting the lion especially if golliday is a hundred percent Yeah, uh, as someone who has a panthers over five and a half ticket the past four weeks have not been fun Uh, they they were three and two at one point. I was feeling good. I was like, oh man, we'll cast this one Feeling good. I also have the bangles over five and a half. They had a tie that didn't help So we're having a rough rough couple of months or rough rough couple of weeks here for sure but I think that You know, the the panthers will definitely be interesting They they also sounds like we'll be without russell o'cune. So it's been it's been rough for them on the injury front for sure That is joe o strausky Make sure you follow him over on twitter at joe o 670 and check him out both on radio.com with bet sweats and on 670 the score joe. Thank you so much for the time. We appreciate it. Good luck to you in week 11 Thank you fellas. It was a blast as always and i'm gonna go back to fleeting because I know jim loves that Thank you joe appreciate Covering the future Big thank you once again to joe o strausky for swinging by so ed. Do you know what a fleet is? I mean, I know what a fleet is in the north like a fleet of ships no, no, no, okay, so You are Bless you bless you for this. You are not as Engrained in twitter as joe and I are uh a fleet Is a tweet that you post that disappears after 24 hours Uh, it's a parent what yeah, it's a new thing and it came out like wednesday uh tuesday, I guess and Tuesday it's like uh, if you have instagram, I don't know if you have instagram We're gonna sound very old and i'm just gonna embrace that fact if you have instagram There's a thing called instagram stories. It's basically a twitter version of an instagram story But I in another example of why I'm secretly like 70 years old I don't use twitter on my phone hardly ever it's always on my desktop and the fleets don't pop up there So everyone's talking about fleets the fleets don't pop up in my timeline on my desktop I just don't notice them. I don't look at my phone I'm not gonna post them because I'm not interesting enough to post a fleet like There it's a very confusing thing. So I'm like, I don't get gratific. This is very again I don't get gratification out of it. So I'm not gonna do it because like what do I get out of it? Do I get likes and retweets? I don't get likes and retweets on my regular tweets Why am I gonna get do something else that gets no likes and retweets like just I don't want to waste my time Yeah, so I what what is the point of this? Great question. I don't know great question ed great question It's just the thing right because you are asking the right questions here. Thank you They had like facebook stories. Is that was that the deal they just disappear after 24 hours? I can't go on facebook. It's facebook is a a minefield of terrible takes. So I just avoid I don't want to there are some people whose opinions. I just like I'd rather live in the dark When it comes to seeing some people's things. So I tend to avoid facebook at all costs So I don't actually know The good thing about a fleet is that I have a lot of very stupid opinions and like my stupid opinions disappearing like All my old marcus mariotta tweets if they were to disappear That'd be beneficial for me all my jaren golf tweets if they were to disappear. I'd benefit There are plenty of other examples my tweets about how baker mayfield is the best college football quarterback prospect in decades Those could probably go away. That would be great. I have johnny manzel takes Grant's that was in college. So like, you know, give me some leeway here I have johnny manzel takes that I wish I could burn but I don't like deleting tweets like because There needs to be a public record of my stupidity at all times and fleets remove that So I keep the bad manzel tweets the bad mariotta tweets the bad baker mayfield tweets up So the people can know what they are getting into when they follow me on twitter. It's a public service to the people Because they're looking at tweets that are three years old To see if they should follow you right the johnny football ones are at least eight and I'm gonna use that as my my reason For why they were dumb. I'm just gonna say oh, I was young I was not young when I said baker mayfield was amazing. So like maybe Hey, he's in good college He had a great line. He had great weapons and he was accurate back then Yeah, I wish that baker would come back. Uh, so I expect to see a fleet from you at some point like I can't I have nothing to fleek so my life I'm just not interesting enough. But like ed fang is interesting enough. So I think you could pull it off But but why wouldn't I just tweet it? Again, you're asking the right questions and I commend that that's all I could say Ed is on the right page. I trust you you're gonna run my social media from now on Because you get it. Let's move now into covering the future for week number 11 starting off with you ed You're talking about one of my favorite games on the board one We didn't actually get to because there were a lot of in Conference games that we had to talk about here with big implications. You're talking about colts packers And if you're looking at like the the saturday early games, this is the game that involves like two of the better teams available So what do you see in this one between the colts and the packers? Yeah, I mean, I just kind of love this game. Um Green Bay has been fascinating because last year they were the most overrated 13 and 3 team in nfl history Uh, the evidence is they went nine and one and one score games, which is kind of unsustainable. You expect that to regress back to to 500 Also, one of the things I do to evaluate nfl teams is I as I look at like what my ensemble says about this year So nothing about preseason priors. Nothing about, uh, markets, which are other aspects of my model But just based on point success rate yards for past attempt like how good is a team? And last year the you know, the packers were like dead average. They were 16th So this season they they they might get to 13 and 3 again Joe talked a little bit about how hard their schedule is after this game. It's kind of a joke But you know, I mean, they're going to be a legit Super Bowl contender this time and and the difference is all erin rogers So the past game really struggled last year. They're 18th when you look at my justice success rate We know erin rogers can be a lot better than that and they've improved to to fifth this season So again, when I take that ensemble of just data from the current year, um You know, obviously not as robust as the full season that we had last year But based on points success rate yards for past attempt, uh, green base sixth Okay, so just just a whole different team for me this year Um, indy, you know, it's also gotten better at the past game. Um, they brought in philip rivers to to replace jacobi brisette And so a team that was 21st in my in my past numbers based on a justice success rate last year Is 13th this year. So an improvement still, you know, I mean not obviously an elite unit But there have been a whole bunch of like great improvements for the colts on defense Uh, a mediocre unit last year that ranked 16th in adjusted success rate is is seventh this year and and that's clearly from the trade for de forest brockner And uh, signing a what seemed like a washed up zavier roads at cornerback Both those guys have been excellent when you look at their pff grades But still even given that like my numbers just think green bay is the better team Uh in this game So when you add a little bit of home field for the colts, um, my numbers make this ever so slightly In favor of indy, but As a coin flip, I actually really like uh green bay. Uh, I got it at plus one and a half That's what it is a fandal right now there. I saw that there's some two and a halfs out there And there were certainly some two and a halfs Earlier in the week, um, I waited to have a little bit of injury information on green bay But it looks like jair alexander and kevin king were both at practice the other day Both those guys missed the last game Uh, jair alexander has been the best cornerback in the league according to pff So, um, yeah, I'm on green bay this week And there is uncertainty here because davante adams is banged up But the good thing for this is that they played two games without davante earlier in the year One of which was against new Orleans and they put up like 37 points in that game I think I think the other game was against the raiders Which doesn't matter doesn't matter as much but they've shown they could be a competent offense With or without davante adams sounds like davante still has a play a chance to play So the packers a plus one and a half red. I think that makes a lot of sense and it's weird to It's just like the bills where We spent a long time Betting against the bills because of josh allen But now we've evolved our takes because we've got more information It seems like it's the same thing with the packers where you know betting against them a lot last year But now the markets may actually be undervalued. I mean just you need to be reactive based on what you see out there in the market Right and for sure. And I think part of this is you know, we talked about how tennessee didn't show up in The their last game for the second half. I mean that was against the colts, right? And is that a little bit of an overreaction to To you know, what what what we saw on that thursday night game um I mean I So anyways also the the fact that fandom was kind of shading this on the side of the of green bay is also a good sign as well Yeah, absolutely. Okay. So ed is on the packers plus one and a half and what should be a delightful game against indy My cover in the future is going back to the denver broncos I want the under on 20 and a half points for their team total and this is the second time We talked about the broncos a team total on this podcast a few weeks ago I wanted the over on 17 points against the chiefs and They missed that by a point and I wanted them over because they were getting healthier and I felt good about the bet at the time We've gotten more data since then and all that data says the broncos offense It's probably gonna suck in this game And the big thing is that we have a larger sample on drew lock and it's not a good sample Lock's output has been almost identical to that of brett rippen and ranks second worst among qualified quarterbacks in the league Only sand darnold has been worse and Once you adjust for the schedule they faced the broncos are 31st in overall offense ahead of only that aphor mentioned jet's team And that's scary against anyone But it's especially scary against this rebuilt dolphins defense because they're like fifth in schedule adjusted defense based on number fires metrics They've held opponents to Under 21 points just four times this year But they've also faced offenses that are much better than the broncos offense the bad offense They have faced in this season are the jets and the jaguars. They shut out the jets They held the jags to just 13 points so Drew lock is a guy who tends to play towards overs for full games because he's erratic He can throw pick sixes. That's awesome for full games. But this dolphin's defense is legit. He's banged up and our sample on him Has not been that encouraging. So I think that looking at this game. I don't want the over for the the full game I don't want the under for the full games. I think that's dolphins offense could do some things I want the under on just the broncos team total It's 20 and a half points at vandal sportsbook minus 106 on the under there Helping make up a little bit for the fact that it's uh, it's ripening 21 But I do think that that's an advantageous one there and I want to talk about this dolphins defense What are your numbers saying about them? I know i'm putting you on the spot here So may not have that up, but uh any thoughts on this dolphins defense and what they've done Yeah, I mean I actually just pulled it up. I mean they're 24th when I look at adjusted success rates so I don't know if that's uh, I don't know from earlier in the season but That's one of my numbers out Okay, so not as into the dolphins defense as uh, the numbers over a number of fire, but still I think that Hopefully the broncos offense can help make up for the difference there and we'll see but gotta be reactive I'm a drewlock guy. Drewlock has not been good. So we'll bet against the broncos here See if we can recoup some of those losses From previous times that is all the time that we have for today and this week here on covering the spread big Thank you to joo Ostrowski for joining us breaking down his thoughts on week 11 follow joe on twitter at joo 670 Check him out on radio.com and 670 the score also big Thank you to megan nunez for breaking down week 12 of college football get that podcast By searching for covering the spread and while you're there make sure you are subscribed Leave us a rating interview as mentioned next week pretty fun show on tuesday to get you set for week 12 in the nfl That should be a delight ed. What is going on for you over at the power rank and the football analytics show? Yes, sign up for my free email newsletter. Uh, get a sample of my best predictions over at You can do that at the power rank.com head john shearan Bookmaker at fan dual sports book on the podcast just a great conversation Uh So definitely check that out on the football analytics show. He talked a lot about the the fan dual analytics team and the The very the various places in the world where that where that team works from and how they make decisions I was interested to hear him. How about, you know, we've talked on this show about how they like to take a stand on games And he was talking a lot about how that meeting happens on wednesday. So, um, they don't take a stand until they can all get together and And meet on wednesday. So they'll definitely do that for the nfl and um Yeah, just lots of good stuff in that conversation So check that out at the football analytics show It is always good to hear about the process of the people you are betting against Uh, so make sure you check that out over at the football analytics show and check out the power rank.com Follow ed on twitter at the power rank. I am at jim sanis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast We had our nfl dfs preview earlier today. That was before avid kamara mispractice on thursday before deandre swift Smith mispractice on thursday before the news that teddy bridge water probably won't play. So things have changed. That's 2020 But you can find all that uh over at the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed big. Thank you to calvin theobald our video producer For running the video side of things here today. Thank you cal as always and thank you to everyone for tuning in Good luck with your bets and week 11 across college football in the nfl We'll talk to you again on tuesday to break down nfl week 12 This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network