 Good day, fellow investors. Now there are a lot of people, a lot of videos that predicate a stock market crash. As you can see, every time we have seen a recession in the last 20 years, a stock market crash followed and we have seen one 2000, 2002, 50%, 2007, 2009, 50% and seeing how high stocks have gone in the last nine years, it would be logical that in the next recession, we again see a stock market crash of 50%, 70% or even more. Nobody knows how low can stocks go. However, it is good to discuss alternative scenarios because the market is always there to surprise everybody. In 1982, nobody expected stocks or bonds to do so well in the next 45 years. It happened. So you must always think a little bit in the long term, will what everybody expects happen? Possibly, but possibly that it also won't happen. Let me show you three reasons why the stock market will not crash and might even double or triple in the next 5, 10 years. So recession, earnings go down, market gets difficult, companies go bankrupt, stocks crash. That would be the logical thing and that was the thing that happened in the last 100 years. However, one thing changed a little bit in the last nine years. Central banks have been intervening in financial markets. If you read the Fed's meeting minutes, you will see that 50% of it is about the economy and 50% of it is about financial markets and financial markets have become an increasingly important component of the well-being of the stability of the economy of prices of everything. Therefore, one scenario is that the Fed, the governments, don't allow the stock markets to crash. So if the Fed gets scared that financial crisis, stock market crash will have negative repercussions on the economy, employment, stability of prices, they could say, okay, let's buy stocks, let's buy ETFs. It is possible or am I talking science fiction? Well, let me show you somewhere where the central bank is doing exactly that and has been doing it for the past seven years. If we look at the central bank of Japan, it has been buying stocks for the last, what, seven years. So you can see that the bank of Japan owns 75%, 75% of the country's ETFs, which amounts to somewhere 5% of the whole stock market capitalization. 5%, you might see it, not important, but I think it's really huge. What happens if the bank of Japan starts to sell? Well, it cannot sell. What happens to the Nikkei index if you have a buyer and if people know that every ETF out there, the bank of Japan will buy 75% of it, of course, stocks go higher. In the last seven years, the Nikkei has tripled. Of course, what else can happen when the central bank is buying? So if the Japanese are buying their own stocks to keep the stock market high, to keep people happy, to try to push inflation, to put more money into the system, why wouldn't the ECB or the Fed do the same? The situation in Europe is delicate. Stocks are relatively high, so they want to keep them high so that people feel rich and people spend. Similarly, net wealth in the US is a big part in stocks. So stocks have to stay high to keep consumption up and to keep unemployment. So there is a possibility that if there will be instability in financial markets, the Fed says, okay, I'm going to buy everything. It is a scenario, it is going on in Japan. We will see if that will happen also in the States, but in this case, stocks would go up in a recession, not down. The question now is what would the Fed buy? Well, as it is the case in Japan, ETFs or mutual funds that would simply market weighted, so they would buy the biggest company. So a protection for the Fed buying in is owning the largest companies, the companies with the largest market capitalization. And here you have the top 10. These companies are big and will get bigger in this case. Second scenario, stocks should present real assets. So if there is a currency meltdown, then stocks can give some protections and stock prices can go higher. The S&P 500 can go to 5,000 points. In that case, you wouldn't be that happy because you might lose 50% of your real value, but stocks might go higher even if there is such turmoil. Let's see what has been going on. So if we look at the total assets of the largest global central banks, Japan, ECB and the US, you can see how up to 2009 the situation had been relatively stable. And then there was a huge increase in assets as they have been injecting money into the system. The money supply in the US has doubled in the last nine years. From one perspective, if money supply doubles, then it means there is inflation of 50%. This inflation has been shown in real estate prices, stock prices, but not in other parts of the economy, but it is there. If this continues and people lose faith in their currencies and run towards assets, real estate, stocks or other assets gold, then we might see stocks go up even in turmoil because the currencies are worthless. So the S&P 500 and stocks are priced in dollars. If the dollar becomes worthless, stocks go higher, no matter what's going on. Am I talking science fiction again? Where here is the example of Argentina that has seen its economy struggle in the last five years with two recessions, a terrible situation. However, inflation in Argentina has been extremely high, 40%, 25%, 15%, 10%, 20%, wherever you look, it has been in double digit rates. The stock market, despite recessions, despite the inflation, the stock market has increased five times in the last five years, which shows that even in turmoil, stocks can go up. So this is also something that can happen in developed markets if there is a loss of confidence in currencies. Number three, scenario number three, the bigger companies keep getting bigger. Google knows everything about us. Apple, really, if you have a Mac, if you have a phone, they know everything about you, Facebook. So those companies have so much data, we trust them. So those companies might start selling us with everything. Google might start selling, I don't know, milk, Apple might start selling insurance and Facebook might start selling, I don't know, trips. So if that happens with the digitalization, with the disruption, with everything, and those companies enter into everything, those companies will get bigger, bigger and bigger. And they are already pretty big. Let's say top 10 companies are 20% of the SAP 500, which means that 10 companies are 20%, 490 companies are the remaining 80%. As these companies continue to grow, some of them at 20% per year, like Google does, then we might see this increase. And who knows, in five years, we might see the SAP 500 go higher, 490 stocks terribly crash, but the top 10 keep the SAP 500 higher, thanks to their huge market capitalization and thanks to the market capitalization waiting of the SAP 500. So those are three scenarios that can happen. Nobody can tell me that can't happen. Everything can always happen. And I have showed how it has been happening in the past. So what to do? The key is to always be prepared. I haven't been a fan of an all weather portfolio up to a few years, because I preferred stocks that were still bargain, submerge markets or something. Now, as we tend to move to the late part of the economic cycles, I like the all weather portfolio more and more. I have stocks, if stocks continue to grow, I am protected. If there is inflation, I have inflationary protective assets. If there is stagflation, I have gold, which protects me from fear and from higher inflation. So having an all weather portfolio with some yields, I think is the best option now. However, you have to see how that fits your financial life, your financial situation, your risk reward, appetite, and what are your financial goals. You have to see every investment and put it in relation to your financial goals and risk acceptance. That's the key to investing. Thank you for watching. Looking forward to your comments, this is very interesting. And perhaps you have some other scenario to add. Look at the all weather video, subscribe if you haven't, and I'll see you in the next video.