 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The Power Trading Hour with your host, David White. Call now, toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618. Now, David White. And welcome all to another excellent edition of the Power Trading Hour. It doesn't matter whether you're sending yourself, not sending yourself, racing motorcycles on the Isle of Man or on the farthest away part of the United States in Saipan, yes Saipan, part of the United States. Most people don't know it. In fact, there's a pretty good joke about the DEA agent who would regularly call from Saipan and no one at the DEA knew that that actually was a territory of the United States. Apparently, lots of people came and go that went there and the answer was always the same with someone new. They didn't know Saipan was part of the United States. Oh well. What else do we have happening here? Now as long as you're here, it doesn't matter whether it's in Saipan, listening in Saipan or maybe having a beer on the Isle of Man, it's time to be here. The following takes place between 2 p.m. and 3 p.m. So what do we got going on for today? I'm still kind of focused on the bonds. We had a lot of money thrown early this morning at the market. The TLT got up to 144.71, it's printing 144.18. That money started to come out, I don't know, an hour or two ago out of the bond market and into the equities. We'll see if this can stick. There's having a little problem getting onto the positive side on the S&P. We shall see. With China really closed, we're probably going to have a big move one way or the other come Friday. I'm worried that, or not worried, but wondering whether or not we're going to have a huge gap in the close from last Friday to the open Friday morning, which is actually Thursday night, in China. So I'm going to get some extra sleep and think about maybe spending the night at least taking a look to see on what happens. Most people, if you're new to the market in the last couple of years, don't remember that China had a lot of stocks in 2015, I think, 2014, 2015. They just said you couldn't trade them. You got them. You still own them. That's fine. You're not going to be able to trade them for a year. I think that there's part of that kind of worry coming back in China using the heavy hand in its markets, but we'll find out about that on Friday. I think that there is still a little bit of that. Probably the only news in the market that I think is really interesting is that you have an inverse leverage cannabis ETF, MJIN, available now. So we shall see about what's going on, but this is Options Delta Neutral Day. So maybe we saw a little bit of that coming in. I'm not actually so sure, mostly because I continue to be rather bearish until we see something better than we see in the TLT right now, which is anything below about $145, I think, is problematic, $145.50. $144.15 isn't that far away. Yesterday, we went down in there. The Fed threw a lot of money early in the morning. Normally, they do it on Thursday, but they did it right before the open this morning. The market still kind of sold off. Didn't really matter that much. But now we've got kind of people thinking, well, maybe it's not as bad as everybody thought, so we'll go out of the bonds. We'll start buying some equities. But as they say, it's not over till the fat lady sings. I'll be more interested in seeing what the closing prices are today and whether the S&P can actually get and go positive. There's been a lot of reasons to think that maybe we turn this thing around and start heading up for the fall. But every time we come down there and hit those lows, there are some buyers. But I'm going to call it diminishing returns as we continue to not go higher. In fact, we really need to close about 4370 on the S&P cash to get back into a bullish position. So anyway, give me a call today, 877-927-6648. Email me at path at tfnn.com. And of course, you can always put a message in the tin. But that's kind of it. But I think if we're expecting a great deal to happen, in the markets, I don't think it happens until market opens up on Friday, along with a James Bond movie, which I hear is got people flooding into the theaters. I don't think it opens here till Thursday night or Friday, at least in the hamlet of Clearwater, Florida. So what is go take a look at some of the rest of what's going on with a little history. On this day in 1942, Chester Carlson is issued a patent on a process called electrophotography, now commonly known as photocopying. It wasn't until 1946 that the company had the interest in pursuing a photocopying commercially. The hallowed company, finally licensed Carlson Patton, treated the word zayography to differentiate the process from traditional photography. Eventually, photocopying became such a large part of the company's revenue that the hallowed company changed their name to the Iraq's. I think there was a little bit more and that was halitosis. It was probably too close to the hallowed company. But hey, guess what? That was kind of kind of amazing that people didn't see the use for that for a long time. Of course, the war was going on. But you got to think a lot of things needed to be photocopied during the war. But that's what they had memory of graph machines for. Anyway, that's kind of it. Let's go ahead. Do we have enough time to actually get to a chart? We shall see. Because there was a couple of things that I wanted to get to. There it is right there. Two that we already had questions on. And the first one is AAU. So we'll take a look at that Alden Minerals. There's just not a lot going on in this, is there? Then 400,000 shares for 38 cent stock. Kind of tough. So, yeah, I don't know if I can say much about that. Let's look at the GDX. See anything going on there? As we said, you wanted this to pop above. You got that today in the GDX. You'd like one more kind of dip below it. And then generally the next run is the one that you want to buy. So you're getting close if you're long this thing already. Time to sit on your hands. We'll be back in a minute. What's separating you from the most successful men and women on Wall Street. That's right. Information. Having all the information gives us the perspective we need to place the right trades at the right time. The TAS Profile Scanner is the premier market profile based scanner. Powered by its acclaimed TAS proprietary algorithms, this feature rich scanner instantly filters over 2,500 plus global financial markets such as stocks, ETFs, commodities, futures and forex. 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We're nowhere close to getting back into the trend line, though, that when this thing has broken and really done nothing more than pop to 145, 46 on it. I continue to watch that. I think it was back in May. We saw it move. We saw it move. We saw it move. And then the market finally broke. And that's probably the same thing. It doesn't matter how much money the Fed starts throwing at it. It still looks like people are selling it. And eventually, that will infect the rest of the equity markets except those stocks that don't need it. So probably not beyond the scope to see the indexes run by a handful of companies maybe doing a little better. They don't need cash and the bulk of the market not doing as well. So we'll keep an eye on that. But what can you say? We'll see. 144.10 on the TLT. Okay. What else do we have here in FLX? We had a big thrust yesterday in Netflix for unknown reasons, some decent volume. You didn't hit the high again today. We'll see what happens by the close. A lot of times, everybody just loves to run the shorts before these things turn. So we'll take a look at that. Still keeping an eye on Tesla. Just a little bit more sideways action. My belief is that when this finally in the next couple of days hits this trend line up and fails, we'll be where you want to short it. We talked to somebody yesterday about that. But I'm looking through my list of stocks, a great deal of them and why they bounced off the lows. They're really not doing that much better. I want to take a look at Twitter for Robbie. Of course, if you want, you can always get me at path at TFNN.com. I don't see any reason to get excited. You've got to bounce volumes okay, but it's not great. Really doesn't look like you came off any lows. You're maybe back in the trading range, but I think all these companies have a lot of problems going forward. Faceless book, really just gone sideways here into that inside day of the candle two days ago. 322.70 is the low. You had a lot of volume yesterday, not so much today, a little bit on the head side. Could you come back up into the trend line, I think, but this thing may be done for the year. It's awful hard to get people to start buying it stuff that they're hoping that's going to go up into Christmas when they know that the next month is probably going to continue to be rather brutal for the faceless book, but we shall digress and see what else do we have. TLT, 144.03. I'm watching that 144 mark. Other things going on. I've got a question about the SMHs. The biggest problem I have, and I was going to talk about it earlier and forgot, and that is all these 500,000, actually now 550,000 containers sitting off the coast of California. I went into Sam's Club on Saturday or Sunday. I went to Walmart on Monday night, another one here today at lunch. The Christmas shelves are empty. Now, I don't know if it's just something in Florida around here, but the two really largest stores have aisles and aisles and aisles waiting for Christmas stuff to show up. You've got to think 550,000 containers are going to take a little while for the big road truck drivers to get going, but I'm thinking that it may not be an Apple thing. It may not be a Microsoft thing, but if you're talking about goods that have to come across in containers, I saw an interesting quote last night on the prices of containers if you want that container here in the next four weeks. It had been somewhere around 15 to two grand a container to ship it, but with all the backup, if you want to go to yet another port or other in Long Beach, go up to Washington State or Oregon or some of the other ones on the northern side or even up into Alaska to get your stuff offloaded, $20,000. Now, why didn't this bother Microsoft as much or Apple? Well, most of the iPhones when they initially ship are coming off the assembly line, same thing with a lot of laptops, and those things get air mail. They got the big 777s flying across the ocean and for the most part of it, I think you could say container pricing and the price for being on a jet are almost the same right now if you want it in the next couple of weeks. That actually may be a boon for the airlines as they charge more for freight. Certainly the freight airlines probably will be doing better as anybody that actually needs stuff, but it's hard to, you know, maybe it's anecdotal, so I'm not going to do much about it right yet, but I bumped into a neighbor who has a Ford, it's a black one, I don't know what it is, looks like some kind of standard four-door thingy station wagon, who knows anymore. Anyway, I think it was a fusion, maybe not, could be. All I know is it's at 38,000 miles on it and it needs a new engine and it's getting oil in the water in the oil, three weeks to get a new engine and that's if they're lucky. So he's just going to drive it around until the engine blows up because they're going to replace it anyway, but kind of interesting that it takes three weeks and that's if you're lucky to get an engine. I'm thinking this stuff is just get worse, it's not getting better. We'll be back in a minute. Are you having fun trading the markets, but having trouble finding like-minded individuals to discuss your trading and investment ideas with? Become an apex predator in the trading markets and join the Tiger's Den Trading Room only at TFNN.com. The Tiger's Den is an exclusive trading room where successful traders from around the world come to exchange trades and ideas. Join the den and surround yourself with the sharpest minds in the trading world. 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As we returned, Ruby in the Den was nice enough to post this about some of the comments from energy coming on. Crude oil down $1.60 after being up. I can't remember if I was talking to Steve or emailed him or something, but there were a bunch of energy stocks that all were on DD9. I mean, maybe five or ten of them. It was a ton of them. A nice little kind of topping pattern here. Not horrific, but XLE back to 52-ish probably wouldn't be that big a deal, would it? That, of course, is a lot of threats to the market, but that's it. Anyway, TLT, I'm keeping an eye on it, 144.10. What else can you say? Let's check that out. For some reason, I've been getting a lot of my mail at about right when I closed the show, although people have been sending it to me halfway through the day. If you've got something you want to look at, make sure and email me now. I'll keep an eye on it to make sure. Anyway, XLE, maybe just ready for a little bit of a pullback anyway. 382 would take you to 51-68. That's not all that bad. Other things that we can look at, we looked at the SMHs, looked at the XME. We'll see how Amazon did. It was threatening some lows out here, actually bounced. I'm not exactly sure. Not a lot of volume in it either, certainly way below the trend line, so it's not really doing anything or making much of a signal. He actually had higher volume at 31-76, so you have an opportunity to come back and get that. I opined a bit about Walmart and maybe four or five days ago about Amazon for the same reason. These companies are the ones that depend on huge amounts of shipping from China and the Orient at the lowest rates possible. I can only imagine what's going to happen over the next couple of months if it's 20 grand to get a container shipped anywhere instead of two grand, but keep an eye on that. I don't see any reason to say Amazon is bottom so far. I'd still want to retest of that October 4th low or at least get a little closer to it. One more push below would be interesting. We talked about Microsoft and Apple. We'll look at both of these. Again, probably less important for Microsoft, more important for Apple since they sell a lot more hardware to get stuff off those assembly lines in here to sell. Got a good day in Microsoft. What's the high here? You just filled half the gap down. The gap down was on 43 million shares. You're up on 17, 18 million shares. You filled half of it and almost a 50% retracement. That would be 293.04. What did you get today here? 292. Could you get a little bit more, maybe even fill the gap? I'm not saying pull the trigger short on Microsoft. I don't think there's a lot of cash there, but interesting nonetheless. Let's see if anything else out here. Any other thoughts on gold? No, just the market. Maybe it's waiting for the market to make some kind of low. The question is, are we beating out a low or are we just going to break through those lows that we come out there and get? Like I said, it's interesting to see the Fed push a lot of cash in the market, especially to keep the bonds in the right position. Those are being sold to actually probably go into the equity market. I don't know. At this point, is the Fed just pushing on a string? I would have to say more than likely. One of the problems that bonds are going to give is more of a long-term issue. When we look at the VNQ, it finally broke off those highs of 110. It's been headed down ever since. No real sign that this thing is actually getting ready to take a run back up to even just a 50% retracement, which would be 105.69. Of course, there's no bigger employer than automobiles and construction, especially for non-college grads. What does the fall look like with a lot of manufacturing shut down and maybe a lot less building or new house building shortly as interest rates go up? As interest rates go up, at the very beginning, a lot of people are fighting to get in and lock in. You see a bounce early on in the housing business, and then it really falls off a cliff as people start saying, well, that house is $200 more a month than it was two months ago for the same house, and it starts to affect housing prices also. Keep a close eye on VNQ and the TLT, as we continue on. TLT 144.13. I'm looking at that 144 level fairly hard. I like that. Okay, what else? We looked at Tesla, looked at Netflix, looked at Microsoft. Oh, we didn't look at Apple yet. I know Joe asked about Apple earlier in my email stuff here, and we've got another one. Okay, again, these things aren't even challenging. They're down trend lines. They're just going sideways out here. I don't see anything yet that says that you want to be long Apple. And the question is, do they have to fly these iPhones here and pay additional, generally the first round of them, get sent by error? And then, of course, it's not such a big deal anymore once you meet the initial demand. But you know, does that cost them 10, 20 bucks extra a phone or something? They're pretty small things. You can fit a lot of them in a 747. I wonder how many iPhones you can fit in a 747, but certainly probably not coming across by boat too quickly. But what can you say? The little sideways action out here the last three days on Apple, and not a big push on volume, although you open lower and retire. A lot more I'm going to look at tonight when we look at the options and see what the options stealth and neutral says tonight. So that'll be tomorrow with Tim Ord, by the way. Are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the Bay Area, including the surrounding St. Petersburg, Tampa and Clearwater markets? Tiger Real Estate LLC is a firm that has extensive experience in the Tampa Bay Area. 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And I think it's a tale of two cities. You're talking about Brazil with high oil prices probably looking pretty good. It doesn't have to worry about shipping oil anywhere. It's not going to California. So it doesn't have to worry about going into Long Beach or up the coast or any of those things. So if you're talking about emerging markets, South America probably fairly good. The downside is probably the Pacific Rim of Vietnam, Malaysia, all the Taiwan, all the other not Taiwan. Yeah, not so much Taiwan is Thailand. And some of these other ones, you got to think that all that stuff sitting out there, 550,000 containers all at anchor, not going anywhere anytime soon. You know what? If we heard the president say, I'm going to send the National Guard there, we're going to do whatever it takes to start getting these things off the ships and onto the trains and behind semis to get all this stuff delivered, I'd probably be a lot more positive on it. I think there's some union issues, which is why it's been done in the UK, but it has not done here in the United States. There's a lot of effort probably politically and pressure for him to protect the unions there. But you know what? Until that stuff gets going, everything's just going to back up. It's going to back up like the toilet on a senior citizens tour bus in a cheese tasting for a cross Wisconsin. It's going to be bad, very bad. So like I said, I'm not particularly bullish, even though we've had kind of a pop here today. I think everybody's going to start looking at what Christmas is going to be like without any stuff on the shelf. But that's me. It generally, in fact, another thing, oh, I wanted to, I'll get to it. I had another question about Levi, whether or not I would keep it here. Again, a lot of these companies have, you got big volume at a low. A lot of this stuff is made in the Pacific Rim. It does come across in containers. It's a problem. Does it go much lower than this? No. I just don't see a lot of reasons probably to see or get invested in it until we know these guys can start shipping stuff and it actually gets to somebody. So yeah, you can, a tale of two cities, whether it comes by air or by sea for a lot of the imported stuff that's made. And as far as I can tell, this stuff probably comes by giant shipping containers and not by airplanes. Although if someone gets naked enough, maybe they'll pay up for very expensive jeans, air freighted from the Pacific Rim. But I think the last time I looked at some, it said they were made in Malaysia. Can't remember, but that's it. Quite the metaphor. I like pulling dusting that one off every once in a while. There's nothing like the visual of senior citizens tour bus in cheese country. Anyway, what else do we have? To get the idea across, that is, give me call 877-927-6648. So when you think about it, how many of these companies that actually drive the indexes now have anything to do with shipping? Pretty minor. So we could see the indexes do well, but a lot of these stocks do really horrible. So I'll keep an eye on that. Other things going on, we talked about Tesla, TLT-144-18. Question about something else. I know I've got it here. Best Buy, BBY. The big problem with Best Buy is television. In fact, I was joking with somebody about Roku, which we'll look at next here, that I figured 50,000 of those containers probably have Roku televisions on them for Christmas, because that's always a big thing to get. You got some light volume over here on Best Buy. Other than cell phones, though, a ton of their stuff comes on shipping, too. And I'm not surprised to see it out here in the gutter and not really getting much of a bounce in it. So I think it's a pretty easy thing to do. I looked at a lot of stocks last night. And that is, if it's shipped by surface and by sea, probably not doing well if a lot of its products are. Now, Best Buy probably not as bad off as others as it makes about half of its money selling cell phones of everything and computers. All that stuff can still fly on an airplane. They can still sell it and still make money. But a lot of their stuff, the cables, the furniture, all the other stuff that's really high margin for them to sell, the white goods that are made overseas. You got 10342, no bounce out here. I would just say that if I'm looking for these things to run, I'm going to look for some presidential edict that says the National Guard is going and going to get all those shipping containers moving. And we're still going to have it Christmas. So I don't know. Of course, we got people in the government saying we shouldn't have it Christmas, but they're Scrooge. Scrooge McDuck, I would say. Question about NVIDIA, NVDA, yes, it is. Mostly its products are shipped across. If you're like Apple, you're making 60, 70% margin or Intel or AMD, you're making 60, 70, 80, 100% margins on a product. They don't weigh much. They're kind of small and modular. They weigh two pounds. You can put them on a 747. You can fill that thing full. It can be coming off, coming out the wing exits. But the biggest problem is still this part shortage is on a lot of different stuff. When that turns the corner, I think NVIDIA is an easy $300 stock just on the back line. As I said the other day, there was a line here in Clearwater at the Best Buy, where they were giving tickets at 7.30 in the morning to come back at 9 and buy them. It took all of five seconds to give away the tickets and there were probably 10 or 20 people for every ticket. That gives you an idea of how many people are trying to get some of the high dollar video cards and can't get it. AMD, not as bad, quite. Most of those tend to be used more for less for gaming and more for mining and stuff. Still a problem. We need to turn that corner and then tell them probably the best trading range. Of course it gets worse and these things break the books. We'll be back in a bit. Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument. You have to practice, sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts. At TFNN, you'll get advice and guidance from the authority in technical market analysis. And it's not just dry, tedious text either. TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV. Live every market day from 8.30 am to 4 pm Eastern for free. Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world. From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has 8 different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. 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Tom will bisect and dissect the markets. The Tom O'Brien Show, next on TFNN. And as we return, is that right? We've got a lot of market gas going on here, up 7 points on the S&P's cash. So we'll keep an eye on it here. I think the market's in this trading range until Friday with China and how it opens up. If you see a big gap down, it could be very problematic. Other questions, would I look at AMD real quick? If I can actually type AMD. Again, a lot of these things not bouncing much. And again, a lot of part shortages on stuff so you can't build full computers. The best thing right now is laptops. AMD has done a little bit better in that. But a lot of the money they make has been on these big expensive chips that go in gaming machines. And the biggest problem they have is you can't get video cards. So who's buying a gaming machine or upgrading one when you can't get the latest video card? So it is the proverbial snake eating its tail on this and that you need the video cards to get the processor sales out here. As far as I can tell, this stuff's still in a downtrend, although very minorly. It should have bounced within a couple of days. We're now really five days underneath that trend line that generally is not a good sign. Really need to go back and retest the 99.51 low of a few days ago and keep an eye on it. Again, keep an eye overnight on the bond market. We start seeing China start to slide tomorrow night. But I'll be rethinking a little bit tonight when I see the options market come in and see what it has to say. Last month, it was fairly bullish right until the end and right until it ran into a brick wall. So when you can, not when you have to, we will return tomorrow. But Tim Orr, same bat channel, same bat time.