 Welcome, traders, to this week's installment of my weekly live market analysis. I'll just give it another 20 seconds here before we get going. Okay, just before I get started, if you can hear me and you can see the tick mill welcome screen, you can just type a Y in the chat box so that I know you've got a feed here loud and clear. Good stuff. Okay, so before we get started, obviously, I want to adhere to the risk disclaimer. Most importantly, with respect to today's discussion, the views and opinions expressed by me today are solely mine and they're not indicative of or representative of tick mill UK or tick mill Europe limits. For those that are here for the first time, brief introduction to myself. My name is Patrick Munlin after I graduated from university, I joined the city PLC consulting firm. I left with some colleagues and went on to successfully co-found and ultimately exit a consulting startup focused on C-suite executive search for technology startup businesses. Going a front row seat to the dot com bubble, witnessing people make and lose a fortune in the market, it's quite literally sometimes overnight. I decided to explore my curiosity for markets with some capital to play with and some time in my hands, I started day trading the S&P 500 or probably more appropriately day gambling. After some early beginners luck, I racked up some pretty solid gains. However, as is often the case, my beginners luck ran out and as the market phase changed, I began to manage down giving back all my gains and ultimately experiencing a significant six figure hit my capital. To say this was a gut wrenching and sobering experience is an understatement. I had to really stand back and figure out if it was really feasible for me to make a living from the market. So I decided to get serious about trading and sought out a mentor with an excellent trading track record. Working with my mentor for a period of 18 months to two years was a time during which I had a technical game in terms of developing a strategy that crucially suited my personality, back and forward testing strategy, all of which were underpinned by a rigorous risk management approach. But most importantly, during the period of mentorship, I significantly developed my mental game and probably most important watershed shift I made was from being a highly goal orientating individual focused on financial gains to becoming purely process oriented. So what does that mean? Well, it means I had to stop focusing on what I could make from the markets and start focusing solely on managing my mindset to allow me to consistently execute my trading strategy, often times in the face of negative feedback from the markets in the form of losing trades. But I can tell you once you become process orientated and have a professional trading mindset, and you understand the true nature of trading being a numbers gamer which is simply playing the probabilities. You lose the emotional investment and that hellish emotional roller coaster of living and dying by the outcomes of individual trades. So I'm no longer concerned with the outcome of individual trades, or even a small string of trades. My focus on the next 100 trades because I know if I focus on excellence in execution, my edge will demonstrate itself over an extended series of outcomes. A multi strategy approach has delivered profitable returns since 2008. Since 2013, I've also been managing investor capital through a managed account service, delivering annual positive returns as well. I'm currently responsible for managing a multimillion dollar portfolio. Since 2010 I've mentored hundreds of traders have all experienced levels from complete novices to former CME floor traders in developing the technical and mental skills to reap consistent returns from the markets. In addition to my fund management and mentoring, I'm also resident market expert exclusively providing market and trade analysis to tick bill. The passion project is leading trading education for a premier trading education brand called fxcareerswap.com. At fxcareerswap we don't just offer development and funding to retail trading talents. We really work beyond just developing market and trading strategy knowledge on mindset development for a structure program that culminates in managing firms capital at zero personal financial risk on a profit share basis. So that gives you a flavor of where it is I'm coming from. Just before we get started today, I would like to highlight a couple of new Facebook groups that I am delivering content to. The first here is the trade of blueprint. I'm going to put the link into the chat so that you guys can follow up and join these groups. This is a public group whereby I post my daily analysis and some other interesting bits and pieces with respect to the markets. So you might want to take a look at that one. The other group that I run is for tick mill and it's their futures group whereby I deliver daily trade analysis for the S&P 500. We've been doing, we've been running that group since April 14 middle of April and we're up over 270 points in the in the trades and analysis that I've provided. So take some take some time and take a look at those in your own time. Before we get started on the charts I just want to let you know that with respect to questions if you have any questions. Please note them down as I go through the presentation here and I'll open up a brief Q&A at the end if there are any questions that you'd like me to respond to. So let's get started with charts and we're going to start with the equity indexes. Here we have the S&P 500. What I'm looking for with the S&P now is either we're going to take out this 4245 to the upside without a pullback. And ultimately then I'm looking for a test of 43, 43, the ascending trend line resistance and I think from there we can see a more sustained correction but certainly between this this period now coming in next week heading into heading into the 21st of June I can see upside for these equity indexes. So if you ever get a pullback today, tomorrow certainly pay attention to 4145 on the downside bullish reversal patterns that set those long positions looking for 4370 on the upside. NASDAQ not quite as bullish than NASDAQ. I think whilst we hold 13,915 there's still potential for another leg lower here in the NASDAQ. So if we do get down into this zone here the ascending trend line support coming at 12,980. I'd be watching for bullish reversal patterns there as an opportunity on the long side but at the moment I prefer the setup in the S&P. So let's take a look at the Dow Jones here. Similar story with the Dow Jones, a little bit weaker than the S&P at the moment but any move that comes into this 34,000 level now whereby we have the ascending trend line support coming in from the March lows, the pandemic lows. Watch for bullish reversal patterns here 34,000 to set long positions and then I think we can take a run up to 36,000 before seeing a more sustained correction. So ample opportunity to profit there but need to get the confirmation of bullish reversal signals there at the 34,000 level. Looking to the DAX to test its internal trend line support here at the 15,350 level, bullish reversal patterns there again look for long positions. I think the DAX gets a run up to test 16,400 area before we see another corrective phase develop. The DAX, obviously the volatility index giving a sense of fear in the markets or potential fear in the markets. I'm looking for the VIX to actually trade lower to ultimately get a test here of this 14 level, and then I think we could see the VIX have a spike to the left side basically and that would coincide with these equity indexes getting up into those new highs before we see a pullback in terms of the equity index. Dollar index, obviously under pressure. Looking for the dollar ultimately to get to break down here to print a new low into this 88,70 area then I think from there we could see a corrective move in terms of the dollar index certainly up into test the descending trend line resistance coming in there at 1980. US 10 year yields, obviously inflation, big deal at the moment, and we're going to get CPI coming out shortly in an hour, an hour sorry. And I'd anticipate that you know that's going to run hot, but I don't think at this stage that the Fed are too concerned about that as they're focused on employment and they give themselves some cover in terms of the two relatively weak employment prints we've seen. So I hope for the 10 year yield to test this equality objective 142.50 before we can potentially put in the next leg to the upside to see a move up to test 2% zone. Looking for gold to to either break the 1905 here or get a pullback into the 1838 level, which would be a retest of this descending trend line resistance then act to support before setting up for this move to see a run up to test 1960 in terms of gold. Looking for silver to take out this descending trend line here so I'd like to be long silver through 2860 and looking for a move up there to test 3168 as the upside objective for that for that trades. And then looking for crude oil, looking crude to trade into this resistance zone 71 80 to 72 85, and then I think we can see a pullback into support at the $65 level before we set up for the next leg to the upside, whereby we should ultimately be challenging the $80 level in terms of crude oil. As a nice setup developing here, we have an ABC equality objective coming in at 42 50 so I'd like to see bullish reversal patterns that set long positions, ultimately getting a run up then to the 5000 level in terms of copper. Bitcoin obviously been under pressure, still hasn't tested the the conflict resistance zone here 41 9841,915 to 44,000. I still like, I still like Bitcoin for a test of the 20,000 level before I think we see any sustained move to the upside in terms of Bitcoin there. So dolly one held the support zone that I highlighted looking for it to break now through the monthly pivot here at 640 50 to get a run up there to test the 650 level. So waiting for that confirmation. I'm going to see a close through the 640 92 level to see the next leg of upside in terms of the dolly one. Well again, hugging this trend line so what I'd be looking for is a close through 109 15, which would give a nice opportunity I think on the short side to get a move back to certainly test support at the 107 50 level and potentially an equality objective versus this swing structure here, which would see us back down into 106 80 as the primary target for that move. So dolly Swiss coming through and Q&A here. If you keep the questions to the end and like I say I'll answer them at the end. Dolly Swiss potentially carving out an inverse head and shoulder scenario here, but certainly we need to see price back through the 90 50 level to to see further upside to ultimately to retest the monthly, sorry, yearly pivot from below at 90 180. And then maybe we might have a more meaningful bottom in place here in terms of the dollar Swiss. Looney remains remains under pressure here but I can, we can see we're trying to carve out a base here at the 120 level. And he moved back into 123 70 with bearish reversal patterns should set up another leg to the downside certainly think about 118 and maybe as deep as 116 80 before more meaningful correction develops the euro. We're a bit of pressure here we just had the ECB come out they we've got the guards press conference coming up shortly, and we'll see if she addresses the potential for talking about or thinking about talking about easing, or sorry, reducing monetary easing. But for now, whilst we hold this one 2220, we could see a pullback here in the euro to test the one 1970 support, but equally if we, if we take out this, let me just draw it in here for you. Trim line potential flag scenario. So any move through the top side of this flag will see us trade directly up to the monthly range resistance 123 80. And then I think we'd see the momentum divergence kick in. And then we probably see a more sustained correction from those levels, getting back into the trend line support at that 190 90 area. And I am a momentum divergence here, which, which is starting to weigh on the euro bit, euro yen. I like this on the short side through 132 80, and I think we're going to run down to 130 80 as the as the downside objective there before we set the next leg to the upside in terms of the euro yen. Testing the support and so I'm watching now for bullish reversal patterns in the euro Swiss. So, and I'll be looking to set long positions, initially targeting the trend line resistance one 1016. If we can get up through there then I think we've got a clear run back into the highs here at 111 50. So, keeping an eye on the euro Swiss now watching for a bullish reversal pattern to to get in on the long side. The euro is sterling looking for it to take out the 86 75 level, get a move up through there and again thinking long positions targeting the quality objective 88 10 to 88 30 is the is the upside objective for that but like I say, need to take out this 86 75 level to to encourage long positions there, you're always a watching for the potential to get a pullback to test this trend line support 155 55 think that then could could prove an opportunity on the long side, certainly thinking about a test up here into this price supports and where we broke down looking at 160 161 in terms of the euros but that's one that's just on the radar at the moment nothing can immediately setting up. You're a cat looking for another leg lower to test into monthly range support here at 145 and then I'd be looking at that one on the long side as well as will have significant momentum divergence to key off there. If that if that plays out. Anyway, seeing the potential for another move to test the trend line support here before we potentially get a run up into this trend line resistance at the 172 level, nothing really to do there as such at the moment sterling. If you're looking for long positions in sterling, if we can get a move into this trend line support and get a bullish reversal pattern. I think that sets up nicely on the long side then to get this final leg up into the 144 144 50 145 resistance to think about another a more significant correction but certainly watching for bullish reversal patterns here to to look to be to be long sterling sterling again. I believe we probably get another leg to the upside here to complete this pattern in terms of sterling yet and then I will be looking on the short side so any move back up into 156 to 156 60 area watch for bearish reversal patterns there to to get in on the short side in terms of sterling yen. Nothing doing here at the moment we're in very tight range and no clear setup. Certainly, the, at the moment the bias appears to be shifting to the downside here we've got the psychic indicator printing bearish, and we've got the VWAP candles also printing bearish so we can't get a close through the monthly pivot at 77 66 so whilst we hold there a break of the 76 30 area would be interesting on the short side targeting the equality objective at 74 19 on the downside that's versus this one structure here looking for that pattern to complete. Nothing to do in this one at the moment either let's take a look at the Aussie Swiss this one I'm looking, I'm looking to get along the Aussie Swiss. I did, I had a position on earlier in the week that got stopped out but I'm still looking at this area we've got the 38.2% retracement of the last leg to the upside we completed the equality objective here so we're in a clean area, whilst we hold there and watching the bullish reversal patterns and I'll go back in to that on the long side and certainly thinking about a test of descending trend line resistance at the 71 30 area as the upside objective for that move. I've got an order in play here to go along the Aussie cab through the 93 95 area, and I'm looking for a test of descending trend line resistance at 95 50 hasn't been triggered yet but bullish reversal from this support zone, which is the equality objective for this swing here so the ABC 9258 we're also sitting just above the yearly pivot and this this prior support zone here 9250 so watching for a break through that 93 95 to get along the Aussie CAD and initially targeting the 95 50 Kiwi. Similar to the Aussie really going nowhere fast we did take out this trend line, but we haven't seen very little follow through, and that's principally being driven by the low volatility environment we're in at the moment so it's making. It's difficult to get these these moves to get going without some follow through and we're not seeing that yet. I'd be looking for a break of the 70 90 level to encourage the potential to see an acceleration to the downside. The target then would be 67 99 but for now we're in no man's land. We've had this range 73 to 71 50, and we've been in it for the past couple of months and it's just digging around in there so no real edge there at the moment. Again, trying to hold this internal trend line support if we get a bullish reversal pattern here in terms of the Aussie yen, if we think in terms of risk sentiment in the equity markets moving higher. And I think there's an opportunity on the long side in the Aussie yen want to get back through the monthly pivot at 79 20 before moving into long positions, and then we can be targeting to move up to 80 73 and 81 the monthly range resistance in extension. Again, holding this trend line support now Kiwi Swiss and I'm watching for a bullish reverse button if we get back through 64 70 and I like this on the long side to to retest the prize at 67 66 so keeping an eye on this is Kiwi Swiss whilst we hold above the trend line support here at 64 20 Swiss yen. On the short side if we hold this double top here looks like we're going to to make an attempt to test it, move back through the support here at 121 40, I think is a nice opportunity on the short side to play for a correction. Again, another one I've been watching hadn't had a signal yet might be setting up now to take another look at the upside here before potentially reversing so keeping an eye on the cad yet but no signal as such just yet. This is the other trade I'm in at the moment the CAD Swiss. So this is a charted through through tick bill got that bearish reversal pattern with the bearish site as shown down here, and we rolled over we're stalling a bit now but ultimately I'm looking initially for a move to test 73 55 we can get through there, then we can start to think about 72 50 as the downside objective. This is not least the evening SMP. Looking bullish here I'm looking for a breakthrough through 742 45 to target 43 50 on the upside. So we're going to break out and I'm looking any pullback into the support here at 41 78 again bullish reversal patterns here set long positions. I think we, we can get around to 43 50s heading into the 21st time window is what I'm targeting. So that so that concludes the, the charts that I'm watching at the moment certainly I'm paying attention to the equity index is metals. In terms of the FX side of things I'm watching this Aussie Swiss the Aussie CAD all trades I'm paying attention to and like I say I'm holding the CAD Swiss. There's a couple of others on the radar there that I've mentioned that I'm keeping a keeping an eye on I'll be updating through the chart hits through tick mill. Are there any questions, want to know what is the prediction later for CPI. I don't personally make predictions but I'm looking for a hot print. But like I say I think the market looks through it because the Fed have already indicated that they're not going to be driven by the short term spikes in inflation, which they believe a right that it's trying to do well. I don't know. And nobody knows is the is the actual truth. But at the moment, the markets believes that you know that that's going to be looked through and we're not going to see any taper talk into the June meeting, which is next week, because the jobs data isn't supporting the inflation data so until they return until the jobs, the employment situation returns to pre pandemic levels, then the Fed are going to keep an easy monetary policy in place. And so I really I think the earliest, we're going to see any potential talk, certainly from the Fed chair Powell who's the most important member of the committee is probably the Jackson Hole end of August. So we just see the ECB come out with their increasing their pet program. So they're keeping a large degree of monetary easing in place. And so I don't think these major central banks ECB, or, or the, the Fed are going to want to make a move just yet in terms of policy these, these, these data points like the CPI for example, they may cause a bit of short term volatility but they're not going to dramatically impact the overall narrative in the markets at the moment. Any other questions. You can type it into the chat box. That's fine. I'm happy to unmute your mic. Equally, if you don't have a question typing an N in the chat box is helpful so that I know we can, we can wrap this session up. I'm going to start listening to Madame Lagarde at the ECB. Okay, thanks very much for your time everyone. I'm going to start with euro sterling. Yeah. So the euro sterling Derek what I'm looking for is if we can get back through 8675 I like to be long euro sterling, looking for 88809 to 8830 as the upside objective. I just want to appear. I hope you have a great rest of the week and weekend and I'll catch you all the same time. Same place next week and like I say, check out the Facebook groups I've put the link in the, in the chat. And if not, I'll see you all the same time next week. Thanks very much everyone.