 due to kickoff I should say. That's exactly right I think the market pricing in for a move in July is only around about 10% but I think as you as you rightly point out I think it will be all about the commentary and I think it will be you know largely focused on whether or not they believe that the US labor market is improving they'll probably be reasonably happy that that May figure was just a blip rather than a weak trend and but I think in terms of the inflation expectations that will be largely unchanged. I think there'll be a bit of commentary in terms of how the markets have rebounded after Brexit and they'll be take some comfort from that fact so I think the FOMC statements will position the market again once again for that future rate hike and it could even be positioned itself for a hike in September rather than later in the month later in the year. In terms of that September hike and what's priced in the market that's around about 27% in terms of the futures pricing and that increases to around about a 50% chance of a hike by year end so we're kind of almost back to the levels that we saw especially for the December hike probability as the same pricing as before Brexit so markets have rebounded again the big caveat as we always expect with the Fed is that any move will be data dependent so that will be there kind of get out of jail free card if data doesn't kind of come in in line with expectation and still showing a decent recovery in the US economy. I think as well the Fed will be obviously focused on corporate earnings as well that will come out over the next few weeks before that September meeting so I think all in all I think there'll be no change but the statement will again start to position that market for expecting that hike later on in the year and it could even surprise the market that may be expecting a hike in September if we get some strong wording in that statement. Yeah certainly off the back of sort of a recent string of stronger data it seems like that September meeting is Teddy Weisberg one Asians and he actually thinks that we might have to wait a little wait until after the presidential elections in November to raise rates. Yeah I think so I mean in terms in terms of my expectation I think probably September is too soon and you know I think we're looking towards the back end of the year if at all you know as we've said time and time again the Fed's preference in terms of positioning that market is to potentially expect the hike and then not hike rather than then kind of position the market not for a move and then actually hiking because that would really spook the market and and give investors a bit of kind of nervousness around any kind of future decisions so I think you know in terms of Teddy who's an absolute market legend by the way I think you know he's exactly right and that's what we've seen you know back in 2014-2015 in terms of that positioning of the market by the Fed you know this this is almost very similar to what we saw back in 2014 where the Fed was positioned for the hike it didn't actually come through and then again and again you know it has the meetings and then nothing actually happens but that is exactly the right way and I think Janet Yellen will again position that market with the statement and and her comments as well and the other Fed regional Fed governors as well will again be saying look you know we should expect to be expecting a hike you know we said at the start of the year was four now there's kind of probably two pricing in terms of the blue dot plots and in terms of you know that that's that future path it is up but I think it's a very very kind of gentle trajectory to higher rates and that probably means just one hike this year towards the back end what about I mean we told their market yeah that's interesting we have seen yields kind of back up a bit for in the 10 years from those record lows as you rightly point out what it's what is interesting actually is some of the demand that we're seeing in some of the US Treasury auctions there's a two-year auction overnight which actually had the the weakest demand since December 2008 in terms of the bid to cover ratios you know probably investors just starting to think at these these levels you know is there is their demand maybe we should be moving you know out into the corporate space to pick up yield in addition as well I think you're seeing a bit of reticence in terms of you know whether the Fed does position that market for future hikes and if that is a case if the if the statement is a bit more hawkish than is expected in the market you would probably you would expect to see that two to three year part of the the Treasury curve suffer the worst and you see the backup in yields being mainly impacted in that shorter end interestingly as well in terms of that weak demand in government bond markets we're also seeing a pretty kind of tepid demand for Australian corp Australian government bonds as well some of the auctions that we've seen so far in terms of the average that we've seen invested demand this year has been at the lowest levels I think going back to 2002 which is again probably a sign maybe a bit of the strength of the Aussie dollar but again you know investors a bit concerned in terms of the global macro picture in terms of interest rates and where those yields are likely to head in the near term and again it's all balls back down to central banks and the Fed and potentially position that market for the for the next hike let's talk the bank of Japan okay what do you think we're likely to see there on Friday yeah I think that's exactly right in terms of the consensus I think it's around about 32 out of 41 economists are expecting some kind of stimulus with a with the most popular I think additional buying of equities through ETFs maybe some an interest rate cut as well in already negative deposit rates are further cut by maybe a 15 basis point seems to be the general consensus and even potentially some additional QE in terms of additional government bomb buying there as well so I think you know the market is certainly priced in for additional stimulatory measures from the bank of Japan's governor and but you know having said that you know he has disappointed the market previously and he's also surprised the market on the positive side so you know there is probably probably a bit of uncertainty around the meeting on Friday but I think you know on balance we should see some further stimulus coming out of Japan to try and get that stagnating economy function in a game but it's a very difficult situation over there and they've tried most things but you know time and time again they've said this you know the helicopter money that has been speculated just won't happen you know I'm almost kind of wishing it will because it would be a really interesting kind of economic experiment just to see what would actually happen there whether it would actually work as as the economists actually think it would do but I think at the moment we're not there yet and it's just going to be more of the same in terms of the ETFs further interest rate cuts and government bomb buying it as the as the most likely contenders okay fantastic so much to look out for this week Mark really appreciate you joining us thank you thanks Leon Mark Bailey joining us there from