 Good afternoon ladies and gentlemen and welcome to this non-farm payrolls webinar with me Michael Huston and my colleague in Toronto Colin Szynski on Friday the 7th of August 2015 and the most important U.S. jobs data since the last one If I can be so glib the reason this this particular report I think is it is So important is I think as a result of comments made by Fed policymaker Lockhart now while I'm talking I'm going to be talking I'm going to be showing you the various disclaimers that We have to display for compliance purposes So you can just sort of you know absorb them as you wish while I flick through them But ultimately there to protect us protect our keep our compliance team happy Also protect you guys as well So basically the reason this jobs jobs jobs data is so important is because of comment made earlier this week by Dennis Lockhart the FOMC voting member and he basically said that The bar remained very very high for him or for the Fed to not raise rates In the September meeting now obviously that set the cat amongst the pigeons given how The U.S. jobs data has been in recent months. It hasn't been particularly bad, but it hasn't been particularly great either the unemployment rate is of five point three percent and It is it's probably it's probably at a multi. It's probably at a multi-year low The concerns I have and I think probably they're not shared Quite quite by as many people as probably there should be is the lack of inflation Be that as it may mr. Lockhart was directly contradicted Well, not so much directly contradicted but certainly mr. Powell who's a permanent member that permanent voting member of the FOMC and there's 10 of them Was slightly more circumspect When questioned about the whether or not we can expect a rate hike in September and it's not really Surprising when you actually look at the unemployment data and then you look at the the inflation data and let's not forget here The Fed has a dual mandate. Yes, they are or do seem very very keen to pull the trigger on a rate rise But if there's a cautionary tale in any of this look at what the Bank of England did yesterday Look at what the Bank of Japan did did overnight Pricing pressures, I think more than anything could well keep the Fed on hold You need a majority of six voting members to vote for a rate hike in September And at the moment mr. Lockhart is the only one who suggested that the bar remains very high for him not to vote for one So the big question is is mr. Lockhart? Is the equivalent to the UK's mr. McCafferty? You know if he's gonna be an outlier Ultimately if he is then we're not going to see a September rate rise So I think with respect to what we're expecting for these numbers Let's have a quick look at the Bloomberg terminal because it's not just about US jobs It's also about Canada jobs So and in that context we're going to have a look at the Canadian dollar in particular because I think We could get a significant move in that today on the basis of not only the non-farm payroll states in the US But also the Canadian jobs numbers as well And I will hand you over to Colin to explain what he's expecting for the Canadian jobs numbers and what may prompt a strengthening of the Canadian dollar Thanks very much Michael. So in Canada We had an overall decline of about 6,000 jobs last month The street is looking for an increase of 5,000 this month And I'm calling for an increase of 10,000 this month in in Canada where we saw last month was we had a full-time employment increase of about 65,000 and that was offset by a part-time decrease of about 72,000 or 71,000 So I think we'll see a little bit of a retrenchment in that it's July There is a lot more part-time work in the summertime So I think we'll see part-time rebound and I think we'll see full-time retrench a bit because when we do get these Really big increases in full-time jobs. They tend to come back off a little bit the next month This isn't unusual and the other thing is we've got now got a substantially lower Canadian dollar I think it's too early for the rate cuts to have taken effect but the the lower dollar certainly should start to help the Canadian economy and mitigate some of the impact of the oil price crash on the on the oil patch and So even though we're still seeing weakness in the energy sector I think we'll start to see some of the other Regions and other parts of the economy pick up the slacks and I am looking for moderate increase in the in the Canadian jobs This month the as Michael noted the loonies gotten extremely oversold against a number of currencies here And and it does look like it's getting pretty washed out at at this point in time And and a lot of that's come from the the decrease in crude oil So Michael is bringing up right now the pound pound cad in particular as one Let's look at this chart and Colin can explain it and we pointed it out to him But yesterday obviously we saw the Bank of England Rather surprisingly be slightly more dovish and that was the reaction a bearish engulfing Yeah, it's a big turnaround there. Could you bring up the RSI on this Michael? I can indeed You carry on talking. What side of our side would you want? Just a traditional be fine. How many events 10 10 fine Is what we're going to show is this which is this is the same as what we're seeing with the US dollar Which is that the CAD weakness anything against the CAD? Where the cad's the the counter currency is getting really overbought here. So as we had one two three four five at least Moves up into overbought territory over the last of the while and now we're getting this negative divergence here And it's rolled back under 70 So these are all Indications that this moves gotten overdone that the Canadian dollar has gotten really oversold and and probably at this point People are going to be more likely to be looking for a reason to start a correction and to move back the other way And it's not just the spelling Canada chart that is sort of bearing There is a danger of a reversal We're also seeing it on the dollar CAD known though not to the same extent but ultimately here We've got what could potentially be a hanging man on The top side at 132 the key support. I think really sits at 130 60, which is around about 20 points below where we are now So we're at a quite a key level I think in in this regard And I think if you get a strong Canada number on a week US dollar number, then you can see dollar CAD drop very very quickly Yes, but I 130 yes And also wanted to know cat could be active right through the morning at 10 a.m. Eastern three o'clock in London is also the Canadian IV purchasing managers report And that's a fairly more volatile reading But at the same time it could also have an influence on the on Canadian dollar trading through the day So it looks like today's probably going to be an active one for the loonie on on so for several reasons Okay, so that we've quickly covered that the dollar cad identified the key levels and Now what we're going to we're going to look at the actual US numbers and the expectations of what we're looking for now You may recall last month average earnings and these this is probably one of the more important numbers the average earnings numbers actually drops back quite sharply and The Fed has been worried about wage growth Janet Yellen articulated it in April that She was concerned about the weak nature of wage growth. It was the April of June It was one of them. It was one of them. I think it was June actually She expressed concern about it And we saw the annual rate drop from 2.3 percent to 2 and we saw the and we saw the monthly rate Drops a zero percent So keep an eye on that because I think if you get a strong average earnings number that is going to be dollar positive If we get a strong payrolls number that's going to be dollar positive But anything below 250 is probably going to be a little bit woolly So you may not get much of a reaction if say for example non farms coming at 240 or 245 It'll still be fairly positive Given the fact the dollar has weakened thus far this morning. You look at euro dollar. It's at 109 40 So if you get a strong payrolls number, you can get a move back to around 108 50 if you get a weak payrolls number So that's anything below. I would suggest 210 205 Then you could see euro dollar pop up to 109 80 But I don't think it will be strong enough to push it through 110 So again, you know, it really depends on the strength or weakness of the number anything below 200,000 Non-farm payrolls say 190 195 you could certainly see your dollar go up to 110 Quite quickly the unemployment rate is probably not as important. You need to put it Into the context of the participation rate and the participation rate is actually very important in that regard Because it's at a 35 year low at sixty two point six So if the unemployment rate drops and the participation rate drops It's not as bullish as you might think that it is It just means that the more people dropped out of the workforce and therefore that means the unemployment rate is artificially Low I think really the the key rate for me is the use six unemployment rate Which I don't think is displayed here, but basically you drop out of the unemployment numbers If you've been out of work for more than two years So you're not actually classified as unemployed even though you're not working and that's why I think the u.s. Unemployment rate is probably not a particularly accurate Barometer of the health of the u.s. Economy and that's really what you guys need to bear in mind if you compare it to the UK economy Where the the participation rate is above 70% it is slightly different. So really is about not only the non-farm payrolls number How far away is from 200,000 and how you know whether it's near 250 and 200 But also it's about the average hourly earnings if we get a neutral report then basically we can probably all go down the pub Or maybe I shouldn't say that Maybe I shouldn't say that out loud, but let's look at some other key areas with respect to the the currencies To start off with them will then we'll look at when then we'll look at the major indices now for cable We can see the box range that we're in here That pretty much Gives you the type of range that we're looking at the moment. We're looking around about 154 60 on the downside 156 80 on the top side If we get a breakout on the cable what I would like to see is a move through 157 And on the downside with respect to the cable I'd really want to see a move through 154 and a half But even if we do break through that we've got solid support just below 154 with the convergence of the 100 and 200-day moving averages So certainly bear that in mind as well looking at euro dollar. It's a similar sort of story I've already articulated a little bit of it in the preamble just now Big big support between 108 20 and these lows in the middle of July and the lows of this week Which is around about 108 40 50 on the top side It's finding it a little very very difficult to get through 110 Obviously, you've got these two moving averages here as well the 50 and the 100-day Which are likely to act as a bit of a cap as well and obviously we've got these declining highs But overall the oscillator is not really telling me anything So it's very very difficult to establish with any degree of certainty what the direction is for euro dollar at this moment in time Dolly ends slightly more interesting We broke a key resistance level Earlier this week at 124 75 80 But we haven't really managed to really kick on away from it 125 is acting as a bit of a barrier in the short term The bigger level is around about 125 80 So again if we get a number in excess of 240 or 250 on non-farm payrolls expect Dolly in to shoot higher If we get a weak number then again expect us to drift lower, but not by too much It's interesting. They're also Michael and that when you're getting a bit of a negative divergence in the stochastics So you had a higher high in July look at the July and August highs higher high in August lower high on the stochastics And you're also and now you're moving up into this kind of resistance band between 125 125 85 there and if you did you if you of course if you hit that 125 85 and failed Then you have a big double top. Yeah, you do and above the bottom of the double top is a bit around about 120 and a half So yeah, which is the which is the July lows So that's quite significant. Well, let's have a quick blast through the major indices This is important in the context the US small caps because the US small cap is sitting on a very important trend line, but also it's broken below its 200 day moving average Which for me is actually? Probably probably significant. It suggests there's a little bit of weakness Underlying that so again, what will cause the US small caps to continue to decline? The S&P 500 is looking a little bit weak, but ultimately if we look at the S&P 500 It's still in a broad range, but we do appear to be also finding Sorry of support again, I've gone and brought out the wrong chart. That's me not paying attention. There we go So again, we're right on the 200 day moving average on the S&P as well Now we have broken below it in the past But you can see the amount of volatility that we hear the market is extremely undecided here You got long negative candle long positive candles in long negative candles That speaks to me to a market that really can't make up its mind Ultimately the bottom of the range is at 2040 top of the range is around about 21 15 21 20 maybe slightly above that with that bang in the middle of it I don't really have a strong view one way or the other on that and because of that I think it would take a pretty extreme reading in non-farm payrolls to really kick it one way or the other out of this range You might get a short swing, but a smaller swing Maybe ten points or something but but anything beyond that to really move it You'd need a really big reading like above 250 or below 150 kind of thing to to really move this market Otherwise, it's probably likely to continue. It's it's ongoing chopping us here And the dollar is looking a little bit weak. I think there's obviously been a leak Maybe there's been a whisper number of a weak number So it's just gone up to 109 60 So it's either someone's got a whiff of a weak number or someone is spoofing the market higher and trying to take out a few Stop so this could be quite interesting to digest over the course of The next few minutes now there is one other chart that I need to have a quick look at Put see 100 finding a few offers around about 67 50 67 60 I'm struggling to see where what's what's going to drive that market higher Just remember what we were saying about commodity prices ladies and gentlemen They continue to remain weak and that for me. I think it's going to be the key Factor over the next month or so given the fact that the Reuter CRB is at its lowest level since 2003 So is the Bloomberg commodity index oil prices are down 25% since the May highs We really need to factor all of these things in so, you know, are we getting a bad number? We don't know faff ex-market seem to think that we might let's see 215 pretty much right down the middle 215 right down the middle 0.2 on average earnings 5.3 unemployment rate. Let's look at and it was 6k so Minus 17.3 Canada yeah, so as I figured a bit of a retrenchment Yeah on the full time and and that was offset by the 24 increase in the part time So yeah, we're just kind of we had some extreme readings last month And this is just kind of retrenching that a little bit not it not a big surprise there and overall overall positive numbers So 6k declined last month for Canada 6k increased this month. It's pretty much running flat so really on that really on a Based on that basis. It's a bit mew Yeah, there's not really much to say Canada's slightly weaker dollars slightly stronger you can see from there But ultimately I don't think there's really much in that to suggest that we're going to get a significant move Higher or lower certainly if you look at that there, we've got a very long lower shadow We may get a little bit of a move back into this this candle here But ultimately and I'll be surprised if we see a move back much above Back to 132, I don't think we'll see that do you know maybe we may get close to a bit probably not where's the time We've broken above these series of highs here. So we are getting a little bit of dollar strength Certainly Dolly Dolly end appears to reflect that it's going to 125. Let's see how it reacts above 125 or near 125 That's been the high ladies and gents on Dolly end for the past few sessions Is it are we going to get a few are we going to get a few stops triggered as we go through 125 here? We are here. This was the previous peak this week Might be worth a little small short position. I actually I shouldn't say that should I Not allowed to say that But certainly if you look at that chart there double top there You know and you've got the previous highs just below 126, you know, maybe it'll want to have a go at it but Yeah Looking at dollar card again, certainly certainly testing the weaker side. Let's look at the pound against the dollar It's the 154 60 level. I'm particularly interested here on the cable We go back a little bit further Any questions guys ladies gents just fire them over if you want us to look at something in particular I've drawn a line through these lows here, but ultimately what I'm interested in here is That number there and it's around about 154 60 154 65 There we go. Let's extend that across these lows here See, yeah, so I mean that part from those twin lows there in the week beginning the 13th of July We haven't really been below 154 60 so Certainly certainly on that basis. I don't really think there's anything too much To get excited about with respect to these numbers Colin I think we're going to test the ISO. We're going to test the boundaries of the ranges But ultimately I think as we head into the weekend these ranges should remain intact. I agree these numbers are pretty much They're not that they're not far enough off of off of expectations to to really move anything So it looks like we'll probably be will be now sitting back and waiting for the next I guess waiting for the next day to report Really why not on this one because this probably doesn't really tip the balance for either side really at this point It's just middle of the road and things just keep on tracking. Yeah, so overall. Well, I think it's positive for September It certainly doesn't take September off the table. No, definitely not. It's definitely not But I think in the context of pricing The labor market's fine for the Fed for me. It's about inflation or the lack of it now and If you if you look at what's happening in commodity markets, I'm I will look at the DAX sir I've just been asked about the DAX the Germany 30 will look at that in a minute With respect to prices for me I think you just you just can't ignore the fact that every single central bank this year has cut rates There hasn't been one single central bank that has cut rates But in the last 18 months every central bank that has raised rates has had to cut them again Bank in New Zealand Bank of Canada, that's the Bank of Canada cut rates in the last raised rates in the last 18 Did it know there is rates about five years ago, but that's the back now I come back. You know, I know I'm thinking of the RBNZ. Aren't I? Yes, I think they're the ones who did that. Yeah, they did. Yeah, see that's an old age catching up with me Colin That's why I've got you as a backstop. Okay, so let's look at the Germany 30 the DAX I Mean the the direction of travel there We've we we finally broke out of this downward channel But ultimately what we haven't done is really taken out these highs from May All we've always really done is we've slowed the pace of the decline off the highs and for me I think if you're looking for what we I think what we really need to see here with the DAX or the Germany 30 is a move towards Move through 11,800. Otherwise, what I think we're going to see is a slow drift back down I think as with a lot of the other indices we're in a range We're at the top of that range. We've just come off the back of seven successive daily rises and now we're looking to consolidate a little bit at these highs maybe drift back down to around about 11,000 400 11,000 500 but ultimately I think We've topped out in the short to medium term and we'll probably come back and test This little line that I'm going to draw in from here like that Which also happens to nicely coincide with with this line that I've drawn in through here So what we've got here going on is a little bit of a sideways consolidation on the Germany 30 The oscillator is starting to roll over a little bit and I think as we head into the end of the week We started the week down here, and I think as we drift into the weekend We'll probably drift down back to around about 11,500. We've made some good gains this week there's not really I think any indication that we're going to get a Significant move either way now, and if anything we'll probably drift in we'll probably drift a little bit lower into the close Stirling Canada is on the move Let's have a quick look at that Colin because that was something that we were looking at before before we before we came in So obviously this is a daily daily chart here We're getting a little bit of a It's still pretty coming off. Yeah, we're still coming off But I was still coming off what I would look for for this I think if I'm looking to get short of that I'd sell it into a move around about 204 204 20 perhaps With a stop loss above that why 204 20? I think it's just simply because retest of that previous loader Yeah, and it was also just around about the peaks here So what you've got is a congestion point. We call this a congestion point where highs and lows sort of tend to coalesce and come together and You may get a little bit of selling interest in that corridor there between 203 90 and 204 20 the oscillators still the RSI is starting to push higher a little bit. So You know the moment we get an oversold bounce here But you might get an unsold barely a big run at the highs But I don't think what I don't think what will happen is I'll be surprised if we break back above 204 for any significant lengths of time And when you're looking at something at the RSI by the way We do have something where it's getting oversold and then and then it starts to pop if if the RSI then starts to fail around 50 That's confirmation that you've gone into it into a Into a downtrend when you're in this rising trend the last couple of weeks You'd push up into overbought territory keep going But you had your RSI was getting consistently bouncing up off of 40 if you've got a trend change then what you'd start seeing is the RSI running into resistance 50 60 and And then pushing into oversold that's indicative of more indicative of a downtrend And we're just starting to see that that tipping point possibly come in with the last that where RSI had dropped from 60 to 30 Like they did earlier this week Yeah, absolutely Pretty pretty sound pretty sound that may So let's have a quick look at Apple because I think there's been an awful lot of talk this week that You know Apple was starting to drag and the broader US market lower I did I did a bit of video earlier this week about Apple and the potential for a little bit of a decline So let's have a quick look at that What we've got here obviously Apple's not open at the moment But we we've seen a little bit of a break lower We've seen a break below the 200 day moving average. Why is that significant? Well, because it's the first time we've been below the 200 day moving average since 2013. We did briefly break below it Here around about here, but that also happened at the same time as the 50 day crossed above the 200 day moving average Which is a golden cross Now golden cross tends to be fairly bullish So in this case even though we dropped below the 200 day moving average because the 50 crossed above the 200 That those those two indicators counteracted each other So you probably wouldn't have gone short on that break because of the contradiction between the two indicators What we've got here is the 50 day moving average is starting to roll over Towards the 200 day the 200 day has been breached Now what we have got here, which is a little bit of a which is a little bit of hope is we've got a counter attack line Counter attack line is whereby you get a strong down move on the one hand And then the the following days candle comes back and retest opens lower comes back and retests and closes above the Open sorry closes above the close of the previous candle so it counterattacks the move More or less completely what we need to see now happen with respect to this apple move is where it's a hold above The lower candle here from yesterday's price action, which we can establish Is round about $114 give or take and for it to move back to around about 119 yeah, you'd really wanted to fill in that gap. Yeah at the top of your circle there Yeah, there is a there is a bit of a gap there. So we need to fill that in We'll see where we open today Certainly if I'm looking at the s&p right now. It's slightly lower So there is a concern that we may drift back down ultimately. I don't think we've seen the bottom in apple I think we could come back to this line down here And that's the trend line that I've drawn in from the lows Go to the one week chart of 2013 okay, we've also we we will potentially also going to be closing below the 55 sorry the 50 week moving average so 50 week moving average Potentially quite negative, but when you look where the 200 week moving average, there's still plenty more Downside in this without without just coming out of the overall uptrend And yeah, that for me is probably more important than anything else. It's not just about The correction itself. It's does it actually undermine the overall uptrend and in this context for me It doesn't and when you actually look at the fundamentals of Apple which you can do here with our morning-style research Capability, let me just quickly get that working We can see that the quantitative fair value estimate for Apple is $125 an ounce According to the metrics. It is undervalued certainly it's undervalued relative to its peers But I think there's an awful lot of people who are disappointed with the Apple watch me included I Think it's a bit of a waste of money. It's certainly not something I can get enthusiastic about and I like Apple products I've got an iPad Beeping away next to me You probably could hear it in the background while I was talking with all the news alerts coming out But you know if I compare look at Apple I look at that stock and I think I actually quite like that stock I think it's fairly valued But then if I go and look at something say for example like Netflix Which Colin you covered believable is this is just parabolic. I mean, this is just totally totally parabolic since the beginning of the year we've gone from 35 40 45 dollars to $130 but it's blown through the tile you had a rising channel and you've just ripped through the top of that And it's gotten the way ahead of itself and now look at the quantity of fair value here 99.8 but more importantly than that look at the Ford PA right here 555.6 Current price earnings is 278.5 And even people oh man Oh go on Colin you go ahead even for people that think okay fine Well, Netflix is eating everybody's lunch and it's growing like crazy I did a blog overnight that show that looked at the prey of the PE to earnings growth where you say okay The your people will pay for growth So your PE should be equivalent to your your growth rate And so power would be one and most of the media sector trades between about point five and two Netflix is P PE to growth ratio is 14. It's insane. That's like bubble levels That's that's tech tech bubble kind of kind of valuations on on Netflix to the point that even if it does Deliver on the growth that that people think is out there. It's still ridiculously overpriced relative to that So it's it's quite vulnerable here any kind of a hiccup out of Netflix and that thing could be in that could be in trouble And you look at the and you look at the price earnings and the four PE for Apple Which basically, you know is a cash. It's a cash cow 13.3 11.5 if any stock is undervalued it's this one Netflix is a bubble about to explode Wouldn't touch it with a barge pole. That's not recommendation by the way Well, maybe it is I don't know But it's you know, you but then again, you know, it's like you get to the top of something And then it doesn't take much just a little breath to kind of push it over once it went to reach of that kind of Exhaustion it wouldn't take much to send that back the other way a little little puff of wind and then suddenly Go on yeah, so that's a quick quick. Let's have a quick look at commodities Let's have a look at crude oil because that for me is also quite important And we can see that here that we're approaching a key support level on WTI around about $44 a barrel But ultimately we still can go all the way back to the March lows at $42 a barrel And certainly if you're looking at the supply and demand dynamics of crude oil There's this this Iran nuclear deal and everything else I think it's perfectly feasible that we can go all the way back there you look at crude oil You look at the direction of travel. We may get a bounce back to $49 or $50 a barrel, but I I serious I sincerely believe that crude oil stays at these sorts of levels and Commodity prices stay at these sorts of levels It's going to be very very difficult to make the argument for a fair hike in September Doesn't say that it won't be difficult to make the argument for it in December But I think it's more than likely We'll get it in we'll get it in December if we get it at all I'm certain to think that the Fed might hint in September and and increasingly I'm pretty sure they're going to do the sneak through one in December like they did with tapering a couple of years back Yeah, I think I think you could well be I think you could be right there Colin most definitely And you're right about the inflation I mean it's still struggling here it wouldn't once we took out the the 61% Retracement it pretty much suggested you were looking at a full round trip and and the way that's been trending since sure It looks like it wants to be doing a full round trip when what'll be interesting is once it gets back into the That 42 area where it bottomed out before and you get close to that 40 round number is Is will it will then start to find support or do you do you breach that the 08 low was around 35? but even going back a lot of the OPEC ministers and stuff like that over the course of the last year or so have Have talked about that kind of 40 level being being a big one. Yeah, I think I think you're right I mean this 40 levels the round number. They're always they're always a nice round numbers and they're always, you know, very very Susceptible to aggregation of buy-and-sell orders in and around those sorts of areas Brent crude is just as important if we look at that here Worked it off the 2010 lows we can see from here. Look at where it was in May It's around about sixty seven sixty eight dollars a barrel Look where it is now below fifty dollars a barrel and it's finding itself very very comfortable below fifty dollars a barrel Which means that we could potentially come all the way back to 45 having broken below the March lows Which had initially acted as a little bit of support We're now back below it and we now look as if we're probably going to head towards forty forty forty eight dollars Forty-seven forty six and forty five over the course of the next few sessions. Yes We are oversold, but the momentum is with the price and when the momentum is with the price You stay with the momentum trade and and and the direction of the trend very dangerous to pick the bottom Well as we look at the WTI chair it could just stay oversold for quite a while Brent isn't Isn't quite as far along on the being oversold as WTI isn't that just continued to trend lower Yeah, exactly. You can see it here. We hit bottom there on the on the slope stochastic there And we just carried on going down, you know, we stay below 20% the whole time If we get back above 20% we could see a short squeeze, but at the moment the momentum is negative We can see that here and the likelihood is it's likely to remain so now we could get a stabilization around here Which could make push this back up into slightly more positive territory, but at the moment the momentum does appear to be favoring Favoring the dollar over the oil price. You look at copper. It's a similar sort of story again very oversold multi-year lows and You know the only thing that I can think would probably turn that around is The Chinese data that we've got coming out next week. So So there I mean that's basically something we could cause a commodity price rally next week It's a Chinese data, which is out in the middle of the week. I think Wednesday morning So it might be worth keeping an eye on that next week Unless anyone has any other questions on the chat then Colin and I will wrap this Wrap this webinar up. I hope you've enjoyed Hope you've enjoyed the session ladies and gents. We'll post it online in the next 12 hours. Otherwise We'll see you again This time next month for the next most important US payrolls report You then the next one will be it will be a little bit closer to the meetings So I think even if you do get a inline readings like you do this time We'll probably see a bigger a bigger reaction plus we've got the the for the Fed There's the Jackson Hall meeting at the end of this month as well Which is right around the same just before the nine-farm payrolls report I think it's one other thing ladies and gents We will be doing a preview to the FOMC meeting on the day of the Statement and the press conference. So tune in for that because we might have a little bit more color to add to the canvas with respect to that there are details of it on our education webpage cmcmarkers.co.uk and Click on the education section to sign up for that because I think that could be fairly interesting And then you know, so we will do it four hours before the announcement Yes in the end this month our annuals to beat is on the 20th correct. I think so. I can't remember without it. It'll be on the it'll be on the website But no the the September one will be a preview to the FOMC. So you really need to tune in for that Otherwise ladies and gents, thanks very much for listening and have a great weekend fantastic everyone. Thanks for joining us