 Hi, my name is Leon Rowe, Covenancy Trader and Trading Coach at Trading180.com and welcome to this week's supply and demand forex technical analysis. If you're new welcome and if you're returning welcome back, I really do hope that you're finding my weekly analysis useful and implementing it, you know, my analysis into your own trading and finding some success. So we normally start off with a bit of fundamentals first. And if you want to know about fundamentals and really you can't trade or you can trade supply and demand without fundamentals, but my advice would be to try to implement fundamental analysis and determine value because supply and demand goes hand in hand with value and we determine a currency's strength or weakness on fundamentals. You can go to the fundamental analysis course. The link is in the description box below and I go over how I approach fundamental analysis trading and you can see the videos here and pretty much just my approach from a top-down perspective, right? So this week before we get into the technicals because fundamentals is what drives technicals. The week ahead is going to be, you know, the US will publish inflation data. That's very important because that will determine the Federal Reserve's policy on hike, hold or cut. If obviously inflation is growing, then they'll probably continue in their hike cycle, which means that dollar strength, if it's as expected than holding, if it's below, then you might start hearing, you know, potential, maybe rumors of a rate cut depending on how far below, you know, inflation rate is, but yeah, we've got retail sales, industrial production and the preliminary reading of Michigan consumer sentiment elsewhere, UK, Germany and Japan, fourth quarter GDP growth rates, that's going to be important for all of them. Obviously, four is the powerhouse for Europe. So you know, Germany leads, if Germany starts to slump, you know, then pretty much the rest of Europe is not going to do, you know, going to fare too well. Japan fourth quarter GDP growth in UK, obviously, you're going to see the effects of potential Brexit on UK growth and China foreign trade, inflation and producer prices. That's again, quite important. Investors will also react to US-China trade talks and we'll see if the impasse of border security funding can be solved in the US Congress to avoid a second, a second partial shutdown. So there's a lot of important news going on this week. So definitely something to keep your eye on when making your trading decision. So let's get on to the charts. So we always start off as we do with the Dow Jones dollar index. So this is last week's analysis. Last week's analysis, you know, I was expecting prices to, you know, at least come up to here, some dollar strength to come into the market. And as such, we actually, you know, exceeded, you know, the expectation as expecting some dollar strength. When you think about the euro and you think about the pound in the yen and what they're going through at the moment, you know, the dollar isn't anywhere near as bad as them. So I was expecting some dollar strength. And of course, this happens in the dollar, basically Dow Jones dollar index is just a measure of dollar strength against the major currencies like the pound, the euro and the yen. So you can see, obviously, you know, dollar strength and it's something to keep your eye on when trading any dollar crosses. So we did come down into this level of of fresh demand. You can see there was a fresh level of demand that led to a new high. So I was expecting prices to come down here and bounce off. And that's pretty much what happened. So let's go to the charts now to see what we can see. And sorry, one second. Here we go. So dollar, Dow Jones dollar index. So what have we got now? We've taken out that level of supply, which was right here. There was a level of supply here on the chart, but we've taken it out. So obviously gets deleted. We've come up into this level of supply. Now I'm going to keep this here for now. I'm going to keep this level of supply here for now. And the reason why is because we haven't touched the level above yet. Right. And this could potentially be and it wouldn't necessarily happen on what could happen on Dow Jones index. But obviously we don't trade it, but this could still see a reversal. This could just be, you know, some sort of stop hunt above that level. I want to see it really kind of clear and go into this higher level of supply. So I'm going to keep this supply here. And I think the demand zone is pretty much going to stay where it is. You could potentially just move it further down. In fact, I think I will. So demand starting from here and then basically encompassing the low right here. So supply and demand, if prices do come up to this level of supply, then I'll just, you know, take that off for next week. And again, if you want to be a buyer of the dollar, what you're looking for is demand zones. And at the moment, we haven't, you know, you're waiting for prices to really come all the way back down to here before looking at buying an opportunity from a sale from a selling opportunity. You could still see prices from here start to sell off. So if you do start to see maybe some negative candles coming back into this supply zone, then we could obviously, you know, look for sell trades on any of the other dollar crosses. If prices do come up again, you're looking at that as your first pretty opportunity to get short and there will be probably another level of some support and resistance within this supply zone here. So I think probably if we're just looking at all the levels, resistance, resistance, resistance, bit of choppiness, but then resistance, resistance, resistance. So within this supply, you've got an area of resistance, which is what we look for. And you have these wide zones of supply or demand. And just look to get short because it adds to the supply and demand equation. So who is likely to be taking profit? Who's likely to be selling at this area here, right? So that's going to be the Dow Jones dollar index for this week. And again, keeping keep an eye on the fundamentals. Inflation, inflation comes out worse than expected. Then definitely, you know, this could be a short in opportunity on the other dollar pairs. So now looking at the dollar yen and the dollar yen right from last week, just zoom in a little bit. From last week, this is what we saw and. Into this week, come on, loading new bars. Here we go. Finally, we did have prices come up here and this supply zone really kind of hold as well. So again, I was looking at probably a buying opportunity, but didn't manage to get in on the dollar yen for this week. So let's look at the dollar yen chart. So again, we just touched the top end of this. This demand zone, right? And looking for a bit of a pullback, but obviously prices haven't done. So we have taken out what's taken out, but we have made a new high. So this is where we'd be drawing some demand as well right here. Right. So what you want to see is if you look down, maybe on an intraday timeframe, you'll see some sort of support and resistance within that zone. Let's go down to something like the four hour. Let's take that maybe able to see some sort of support and resistance. You've got support, resistance, resistance, resistance, bit of support, just a bit of a breakthrough there. I'm not necessarily the clearest level on a lower timeframe, but you may want to look for any kind of buying opportunities if prices do come back down into this zone on a lower timeframe before looking to get long, be careful. Again, if risk off comes into the market and the yen is a beneficiary of risk, sorry, risk off sentiment, right? Then you would probably be continuing. If you do get in short here, you're looking for any continuation to the downside. This level is OK. Or if that level, basically that demand level fails, then looking for that area to look for any long trade. Same thing for looking for a short trade. You've got this supply zone here to look for any shorts if you're not sure already right here. So moving on to the Swiss franc dollar Swiss and I didn't have an update since the 27th of January because we really haven't had any movement. Nothing really changed until this week. So this week, we did create a new demand zone and we've, I would say, probably the supply zone. You know, it was probably just about gone. If we zoom in a little bit, right, we did, you know, clear it one, two and then we come back down into it. But I'm going to, I will get rid of this supply zone here. Let's go to the charts, dollar Swiss. So what I'm going to do is that's gone. And now we want to do is zoom in a little bit and our supply zone is going to be so our demand zone is going to be right from from here to here. Now, could you get short right now yet? But personally, I'd put it rather wait for this level of supply a lot higher, right? In order to get short, if you want to get long on this currency pair, then you're looking for a pullback, which I am going to be looking for any kind of demand trades. And again, just depending on fundamentals, you know, and risk sentiment. But all in all, I want to be more bullish on the dollar, but I wait for price action to obviously prove that and assess when prices do come down here. So those are pretty much your options for this week. If prices break down here, I like this level here, where you've got the confluence of horizontal and diagonal support and resistance. This is a nice one, right? In a level of demand as well. So definitely good level. Let's add a level right here. You can see where there is. Confluence of support and resistance within this area. You can see resistance, support, support, support, kind of resistance and support around here, support. So again, nice, nice setup. If you want to be long, the dollar, I like this. Again, doesn't mean I'm going to take this. You know, there's other things I'm looking for as well within this area. And again, it depends on what happens this week from a fundamental perspective. So that is the Swiss Franc. Now moving on to the dollar CAD. The dollar CAD, this was a decent, very good, say very good setup, but from a technical perspective, good setup. You had some diagonal support in this area here. You also had the confluence of horizontal support. First and foremost, demand, which is value in this area. And anyone who did get long would have been rewarded from last week. Come on, come on, come on, load new bars. Here we go. Right, you can see where price is pretty much reversed from here. So great setup. We've taken at this level of supply. So on the chart, I will take that off. Let's have a look and go to dollar CAD. So dollar CAD, again, taking at this level of supply. That was positive, obviously bullish dollar, right? So if you are looking to potentially get long, or as you have started off with the shorts, if you're looking to get short on this pair, then just a bit higher before looking for some bearish price action. Again, if you're looking for buying opportunity, you'd be looking for prices to come down here. Or you'd be looking for higher highs to get made. If higher highs do get made, then come back down into what would be created as a demand zone. So you've pretty much got that. Again, with the Canadian dollar, keep your eye on oil. If oil is bullish, then very bullish, then you may see, obviously, prices start to come down in the dollar, sorry, the Canadian dollar, strengthen. But again, just keep your eye on oil, and obviously the dollar index and what's going on. So those are your options. Let's go to the New Zealand dollar, US dollar. And this week, what we had was a bit of a sell-off. So I was expecting prices to just come a bit higher. I thought it was going to stop hunt some people. But obviously, if you did get in on this pinball, well done to your top of the supply zone. I didn't want to get short on this, but it just didn't come up to the area that I was expecting. And plus, I was in a few other dollar trades as well. So I didn't want to overload. But if I did see some sort of stop hunt, then I probably would have entered another small position on this currency pair. We've taken out this demand zone here, even with the Confluence. And again, there was something in the New Zealand news which wasn't fantastic. So we've taken out a couple of levels. So what we can do is just go to the charts and clean it up a bit. Now we'll get rid of that. Get rid of that. Get rid of that. And we're taking out that level of demand. And I'm going to delete that as well. So we're right into this overall daily level of demand here, which has been used as support, support, resistance, support. And all support and resistance is is past supply and demand zones that have been projected into the future. This is a demand zone. This would be a supply zone. This is a demand zone. This is a demand zone, right? So it's just been past supply and demands that have been projected into the future. So if we do see some witness on the dollar, right now is a decent, definitely a decent buy. If you're looking to buy the New Zealand dollar, if you're looking to buy the US dollar, then that's going to be your next supply zone and less prices make lower highs and lower lows. So you might see a bit of a bullish candle and then you see a bearish move that continues lower. Then this would be the area of supply. Also a decent area where we've got some horizontal support and resistance. And in fact, I don't know why I'm going to draw it from here. Yeah, that's where, that's really where the other level is. I don't know why it was like that before, but you want to join the lows, et cetera. So putting me, maybe the better area to maybe get along with is if you see prices chop around and the price come down into this area here. But either way, if you think that the New Zealand dollar is going to strengthen, then now is your opportunity to potentially get long. Moving on to the pound dollar. And the pound dollar, let's have a look at the charts, zoom in a little bit. And this is, I mean, I'm actually in this trade short and loading new bars. Here we go, all right. So again, traders last week, there was a buying opportunity around here. But again, why the question I was asked is, why are you buying the pound when there's so much uncertainty around Brexit? So taking out that demand zone, right. There was no value around here. And now we've come down into this demand zone here, right. And we're putting in, we don't know whether this is profit taking or reversal, I would probably say, depending on what happens this week, it might be probably just a profit taking going on into the end of the week. So let's go to the charts and let's have a look at the pound. And so what we want to do is get rid of that, get rid of this and this. What we've actually done as well is we've touched this lower area of demand. So what I'm going to do is just clean up the charts a little bit. Yeah, and get rid of that as well. And then what we want to do, it's going to be the area of supply that if prices do come into, I do want to look to get long, sorry, look to get long dollar. Anyway, short the British pound. As far as a level of confluence with support and resistance in that area, you do have a little bit. It's not fantastic, but it is there. It is there. Got support, support, bit of support here, bit of support here, there, there. So around this area, decent level to try and potentially get short. If you're looking to get long, these are pretty much going to be your areas right now to get long either there or there. We also have this wider demand zone right here. Again, when you get wide demand zones, you just look for some confluences within those areas of demand. So you're going to have support there, support there. And if you don't see anything, maybe on the higher timeframe, just zoom down into the lower timeframe, like the four hour to look to see if you see some four hour support resistances within these areas. These daily areas of demand or supply, right? So that's pretty much your analysis for the pound dollar. Moving on to Euro dollar. Euro dollar. I took profit this week on this trade. I managed to get in around here. I think I showed you the entry in the trade last week. Took profit on Friday. And I'll show you exactly why I took profit. In fact, I have to tell you pretty much from here is that you've had one, two, three, four, five days of selling right into a level of what is known as, you know, obviously demand, but you've also got support, support, support there. And I'm expecting pretty much just a pullback before prices start to move lower. So when you see that, before I just take profit, my overall target was actually at the lows, but I'm expecting a pullback. And then hopefully I can get, you know, an entry at some point and then just re-enter on the trade. So let's go to the Euro dollar. So we took out this level of demand as there was no demand there. That gets deleted. And I'll go down to the four hour timeframe just to show you. You can check last week's weekly video as well. That was the entry right here. Nice risk reward and about a four to one on the trade. Stopped just above the high, few pips above the high. And profit was around the lows right here on the Friday. So worked out to be a nice four to one trade. Again, why was because if you look at Europe and you look at the dollar, which one is faring better? And that's again, it's a question for you to answer. But again, looking at you've had one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, 10, 11, 12 bearish candles into a level. For me, I have to expect some sort of pullback. Whether I get it or not, I might be wrong, it's fine. But when you get so many bearish consecutive bearish candles or in a certain, in a direction, you have to expect something to kind of pull back and then maybe continue lower than what you would do is just look for trading opportunities within that level of created supply. If you do get it, nope, definitely don't want to do that. So let me just go back a bit. Go back to the daily timeframe chart. So I am expected a bit of a pullback if prices do continue lower, so be it. But if you do want to be a buyer of the Euro, just be aware that this is not the freshest area of demand you've been, it's been touched once, twice, three times, four times. I do expect this to break to be fair. But again, I was expecting maybe a bit of a pullback before it starts to break lower, right? But just keep in mind that this is going to be a problem area for potentially for the dollar, right? To really break through straight away. Again, if the Euro is in positive sentiment or positive fundamental news, then this could be a decent trade to the upside. Again, if you're looking to trade this to the downside, you've got another bit of another supply zone right there. But again, just look for fresh areas of supply. So even though there is a supply zone here and price is blatantly supplied there, is that the freshest area of supply? I'd probably say higher up would be the best, better area or higher still, right? So those are pretty much your options for the Euro dollar. Looking at the Euro yen, let's zoom in a little bit, this pair I haven't really been looking at. Technically it's not necessarily the greatest, but fundamentally and sentiment wise, I do expect the closer we get to break it, the yen to strengthen because of the risk that is associated with it. We did have prices kind of come up and then come down into this demand zone. Now is there demand for the Euro at this exchange rate? Again, that's something that you'll have to decide for yourselves, but from a technical perspective there is a decent buy trade where prices do come down and you've got the confluence of some support in this area. We do also have supply right here as we've kind of gone below this previous higher low. We've actually got the swing here and then you've got prices have gone closed below that low. So I'd put this as an area of supply. So from a buying perspective right now, anywhere right now if you go down a lower timeframe would be decent buy. And again, if you're looking at a sell trade, your first area to try and look for a short trade would be there. You also have the confluence of support turned to resistance. So this little areas of support term resistance into an area of potential value as well. So that's your Euro yen trade. And again, if one of those levels breaks, it's just looking for the higher level if you're convinced that the Japanese yen is gonna get stronger against the Euro. So moving on to the Australian dollar, US dollar. Again, with low bars, we've created now. I did want prices to come up into this area of supply which it didn't, but it created a new area of supply. Took out this demand here. So on the charts we've got an area of supply right here and we've kind of put in a little pin bar at this area of demand. So go into the charts, all we can do is take that out, take that out. And then again, if you believe in dollar weakness or Aussie strength, US weakness, Aussie strength, then this is a potential buying opportunity in this area of demand. If you're looking at a short trade, which I will be, then waiting for maybe a pullback into this area of supply here before looking to get short. If that level of demand fails, then you've got another level right here to look for demand, right? And again, same thing would be up here. This level of supply doesn't actually work out. So those are your areas of supply and demand that we also have a level of, here we've got a bit of a level of support and resistance within that supply and demand zone. You can see it on the underside, yeah. Right there, support, resistance, resistance, support, bit of resistance and support there. So just on the underside of this, just move it up a little bit more, something like that. Again, decent area with some confluence here, adding to the supply and demand equation. So yeah, I think that's it for the Aussie dollar. And finally, we have the Australian dollar, Japanese yen. So again, looking forward from last week, we did get a bit of a set off at this 0 point, so 0, 80 point even number, round number. So we have come down into this level of demand. So let's actually go to the charts and zoom in a little bit more. So what we've got, level of demand, come down to the lower area. So we could be looking at a buy trade. Right now, on the lower timeframe chart, we have created a bit of a supply zone right here. So prices again, come up to this area of supply. Then this is where you wanna look to get short. The next level of supply is gonna be further up here. Again, Japanese yen benefits from risk off sentiment. So again, if you start to see China going back to the fundamentals, right? If China investors will also look to react to China as well, China trade talks, but also China foreign trade, inflation and producer prices. That pretty much is like the global engine, right? It keeps GDP of other nations up. China being the biggest economy in the world at the moment. Now if that starts to slow down and the global economy starts to slow down, if the global economy starts to slow down, then there's gonna be a flight to safe haven. Money will flow into safe haven, plays an asset like gold, Japanese yen, being a safe haven currency. So again, this is the reason why you look for fundamentals and risk sentiment, right? When looking at taking certain trades, it's not just good enough to look at a technical pattern and say, oh, that's a level of supply, that's a level of demand. If you're trading like that, you're really at disadvantage in my opinion, but I could be wrong. But yeah, that's it for this week. Please don't forget to like, subscribe, share if you find the analysis useful. The pairs, I should have said toys at the beginning, but it is time stamped in case you wanna go back through your favorite pairs. And again, if you have any questions, just email me at info at trading180.com or you can leave a comment in the section box below. I hope you guys have a great week thinking of the next video to make. I've got a couple of ideas, but if anyone wants to send anything over, then be my guest. And if I know anything about it and I will make a video on it. Thank you for again. I wouldn't say appreciate the guys that have been commenting and supporting as well. Thank you very much. It really does go a long way to getting these videos out there. So thank you again. And guys, have a great trading week and take care.