 Hello, traders at CMC Markets. Welcome to another update. I'm preparing this early in the morning of September 1st, non-farm payroll day. My name is Trevor Neal. I am a research director at RRG Research and I'm presenting to you from London. In front of this important data release we're going to do analysis on foreign exchange, major pairs and also we're going to follow through on the DAX and the FTSE, two things that we have favoured in recent days. A quick glance at the daily relative rotation graph and we continue to see the outstanding feature which is that the NASDAQ is the only one moving in the north-eastly direction so improving JDK-RS ratio and improving momentum, relative momentum. So this is pointing upwards and heading north-eastly in the leading quadrant. Just in the leading quadrant are the S&P, very static so still right of the 100 levels so on a ratio basis outperforming the MSCI World Index. All of the European indices except for the FTSE are in the weakening quadrant and heading in a south-westly direction looking like on a relative basis weakening further and then the FTSE is still and now looking rather sick here. The Russell 2000 and looking extremely ill is the Heng Singh. But here's the Dow down here also heading into the lagging quadrant quite purposefully in that direction. So the message from this is that from not from a short-term trading perspective but the trend for the short-term trader is that the only game in town on the upside is the NASDAQ. On the downside we've got the FTSE, we've got the the Dow now and all the European indices are weak and the S&P itself is fairly statically quite good if you like against the MSCI World Index but really for directional with a long tail it's the NASDAQ. Now NASDAQ has had a good run-up since the 18th of the 18th one big 50% pullback on the 24th and then back up again and move you up strongly. Some signs of nerves at the end of Thursday awaiting the non-farm payroll data and probably until the data comes out we will pause around here at the resistance of the 4th of August at 15,500 big just a round number. So it's come to a kind of a halt there. The next resistance above if it were to break up is 15,788. Now a word about the non-farm payroll. Of course we can only guess at the number. There's almost always high volatility around the number. There are always expectations clearly with the action nor the indices. The expectations are that the number is going to be good and so anything less than good is going to be disappointing for the market. Adding to volatility is the economist's ability to forecast incorrectly fairly consistently incorrectly the not these significant data GDP non-farm payroll etc. So that adds to volatility because often the expectations to the market are wrong-sided for it. So I'm not going to guess on that today but so what's can happen? Well we've come come to a bit of a halt here but I think that's only because now we must wait to find out. If the if the market breaks the high it probably will do it with great velocity and then the next resistance and it is fair resistance will be at 15,800. We can see that beyond that we've got another high up here at 15,940. So that would be the next if we break that. That's quite tough that one. This is not tough this one. The if it turns down and the trigger could be a break of this 15,450 level then I think we can come back down to find one of these support levels. The first one we come to is 15,300 and that's not very strong. The as I call it the Nvidia high here at 15,270. That's also not that strong. Stronger I think support would be 15,200 down in here. Now the indicators of turn down this is the MACD has turned down on this pause. The RSI the next most sensitive has definitely turned down and this low stochastic is is going down from a high reading. So were it not for the fact that we had data coming out I think this would be quite a good sell set up for break of this low protecting yourself above this high at 15,590 and then looking for one of these we could these support levels to hold most likely it would be this one here at 15,200. Quite good risk of war ratio on that but do you want to go against the trend of the strongest index out there just in front of non farm payroll as up to you and how dangerously you want to live. Very similar picture here on the S&P. We've stalled with ease back a bit waiting for the release of the data. We've done it at a fairly obvious point 4,500 in that round number there and that high also above us we've got a small amount of resistance at 15,540 but if we were to break up if the news is better than expected a 4,600 would be the next level that we should manage to get through to. So breaking of this high will be the signal that we're on our way up. Don't forget the position of the of the S&P in the RRG graph quite close to the MSCI World benchmark that we've been using not really moving so holding steady on a relative basis but not showing increasing momentum and ratio like the NASDAQ so not as good looking from an intermediate term point of view but still you know again from the 18th it has progressed a long way expectations are good for this data. We have turned over you see the MACD has crossed down the RSI plunging through 50 and the stochastic is deep here so we're a lot more progressed in the fall than we were on the NASDAQ. Again this if you were if it wasn't for the data release being imminent I would say that this would be quite a good thing to have got to get short of below particularly on the break of 4,500 you've got the obvious protection here you've got weak support here but you've got strong support here 4,450 so if it gives way or if the market disappoints that's how I think it's going to evolve but clearly for break this high that's not happening and we're on our way up to 4,600. The Dow Jones industrial average is you'll remember moving quite purposely through the weakening quadrant towards the lagging quadrant and this has not got the big jump from the 18th that we had in the other markets it has struggled it is really very reluctant participation in steadiness. We've got resistance 35 and 72 the big resistance though are these two or you might say three tops at 35,620. There is good support here at 34,500 and then support here 34,068 and strong support from consolidation here at 33,500. The MACD in this case is moving up on the hourly chart the RSI has just dropped down with this last sell-off last night in the market and then we just hooked over with a new fresh sell signal in the stochastic on that last hour. So I mean it is a weak index it has turned down again if it wasn't for this data release you could probably get your now and protect yourself above the high here at 35,090 but the potential on the downside is somewhat limited I don't think it's a worth doing as a trade if the risk the reward is not great enough for the risk you have to take on it particularly given the moment that we're in but if let's say after the data is released we do come down and come down rather mildly to this quite strong support here 34,500 and it holds there I think there's back bounce potential in this despite its position in RRG. Now last night the FTSE dumped in the last couple of hours fell down very hard indeed crossing over the MACD and so here we have quite a toppy formation and potentially a significant break in front of this non-farm payroll data so any downward move here any weakness this morning follow through is actually we should follow through downwards 7,436 is the is the breakpoint support comes in it starts to come in 7,388 but it's not that strong and the big support is from this one to three lows here at 7,220 there's a it's vulnerable to falling a lot this if it follows through if we break up through 7,510 we've broken through this little topping area and the turning point in the MACD but there's considerable resistance up there extending all the way up to 7,600 it's got layers of resistance there's another resistance as well so I think that this is going to resolve itself on the downside it's vulnerable to quite a sharp fall of course the it will be waiting for the non-farm payroll this morning it probably won't do anything or be aware of treachery you know fall here on low volume you know before the number but if after the number and sort out we're starting to go down this part here particularly could be quite quick and then really the strong support is right down here and we've got a clear place to place a stop above this high here the dax is a very interesting point technically it's come up strongly like the other indices except for the footsie and the Dow since the 18th up to this resistance level at 16,060 and on the last couple of hours of last night dumped it's also approaching this gap here to fill the gap we need to go to 16,200 and then the next level is the highs here at 16,511 support wise we've got minor support right where we are now we got further support at 15,888 and then strong support at 15,800 so we've got a strong move up here we've got a crossover of the MACD but it is still rising the MACD so this could be merely an interruption in an uptrend the RSI shows a big correction we've come down to below 50 so whatever excesses of overbought we've had has been unwound and here the so stochastic gave us a sell right at the high here and it's still in progress so I think that it's quite likely that the the footsie is going to the dax is going to regain its composure maybe around where we are or 15,800 and then break through this high here at 16,060 and push on forward and continue this uptrend here if if there is no rally so if it doesn't hold keeps on drifting particularly if it gets through this area here at 15,800 then I think that the the market has turned and this longer term indicator is correct and it's more than reaction and it is a reversal but it's very well supported here and I don't think it's worth really selling this given the amount of support close by below but if we do reverse this short-term pullback and then start to move up and break the high here then I think we've got a quite a good run up ahead of us there so watch for a turn in the dax like starting with the Euro the Euro sunk hard down to support at 10840 10836 high high low low here and it's holding overnight it's been good enough holding to reverse the MACD into a buy message the RSI has already come up strongly it's at 50 now and the stochastic after bullish divergences has pushed head strongly and isn't in the process of having you long of the market so that we've got the opportunity to structure a trade here as which could do service well given that we're waiting for impending data just before we start that there's one thing I want to point out is that this long move here downwards let me just show you here that we had in the in the Euro ended with a reverse head and shoulders so here low low low low low low low low two heads here higher low neckline breakout impulsive breakout from the neckline measure from the head to the neckline neckline split take it up and that takes us to 10930 which is where we got to so it's complete that pattern so going back to the present short term present and let us say that we are in the turning the pausing point if we break these highs here 10855 let's say 65 for safety I think that we're going to go further up and to the strong resistance which is at 10930 so that's a good minimum price objective we've got an obvious place to protect ourselves below this level here these two highs and these two lows here at 10836 and so 108 let us say 28 would be a logical place to place the order if it breaks that level I want to be short and I think the potential is more on the upside but it would fall from there I would suggest and then likely find minor support here and is minor support at 10780 but stronger support at 10766 the better trade is likely to be if we do break up and we break down but we're in a little pausing action here breaking up from the pause should infer a good move up breaking down from the pause should meet infer a move down but through a program of support so some one of those is going to happen today that is for sure and I think that we're in for a good move up or down in this but we've got our levels and that's the advantage of course of technical analysis now cable this is a bringing a bit of data here I'll stretch it out in a moment cable has got two consolidations a big consolidation above which it punched into got to the middle of and was rejected and then it's got a support consolidation below and we're right sitting on it now so bear that in mind for context looking more closely remember this is a punching into an area of resistance it's going to be hard to go up it is however come down to the support generated by this high this high small consolidation this low and there so that's a good size of all support level so that's a good place to initiate a trade or exit a trade on the break of that level if we said if we steady up through the one one point two nine oh level here then I think we could push to one two seven twenty to one two seven forty five area but it's going to be slow and hard to do these the resistance is much stronger than the support on the support side if we were to break down from it then we've got support at one twenty six twenty and really strong support around this one twenty five sixty level here so that's about as far as you could hope to get for it but you you are selling into support if you buy you're buying into substantial resistance if strong resistance if you sell you're selling into support it's not a great trade it's not a breakout trade it's not like neither of them are likely to have a velocity to them then finally the Australian dollar here it is in the big picture here and we've got the resistance at sixty four forty eight and this is of course dollar at the Australian versus dollar versus the dollar we've got significant resistance on these two tops here at sixty five nineteen it's quite well supported here at sixty four fifty nine and then other support levels and the consolidation down in here the sort of intermediate term trend is mildly upwards at the moment now it is in a tight range at the moment the bottom of the range is is around sixty four sixty top of the range maybe a bit higher that's comes from that previous high there I would put it at sixty four ninety six sixty five level there so we're ranging in there breakout of a range particularly an extended range like this one normally in initiates good trades but we see that it's really churning around a lot I think that the the upside if we break up it's quite limited up to the strong resistance at sixty five twenty if we break down we come down into sport there's more downside than upside for this sixty four the round number would be a target so I would of the two I prefer the breakdown I would let the the all of these lows give way before getting in and saying this range is broken because we have had spikes before and then if that does happen I'll be looking for for this sixty four low and using this consolidation as a protection but the consolidation is wide enough to make the trade not that attractive from a risk reward perspective I think the probability is quite high but the risk reward is quite limited and so it's not my favorite trade I thank you very very much everybody I wish you the best today with non-farm payroll so you will probably almost certainly get a volatility as a result I hope this is fine you find this helpful in preparation for that wish you a great day and from Trevor Neal here in London at ROG Research may the trend be with you goodbye