 A lot of the best pitchers on tonight's sleep for daily fantasy baseball are dealing with something whether it's weather or bad matchups bad pitch counts something like that is impacting a lot of the key guys we typically focus on with a main slate for daily fantasy baseball and that's annoying because I do like those top end guys but also I think it opens the door for an actual legitimate value play to be super viable for daily fantasy for tonight we're going to dive in and break down who that value play is why we're even considering them as far as things that impact the other guys and then get you ready for tonight's slate and MLB DFS welcome on into the solo shot that's right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire dot com my name is Jim Saunders I am a senior writer and analyst for a number fire here to break down Wednesday's 10 game main slate with locks up for 705 p.m. Eastern for today weather notes on this slate the first one is in Cleveland for the Guardians and Red Sox the winds there are in from center at 12 miles per hour that is a slight downgrade to bats for the Guardians and Red Sox the two big rain chances for tonight are both impacting potential top end starters for today the first one is Atlanta for the brazen Mets that could be a risk of a delay or postponement check back on that later on that is where Max Scherzer and Charlie Morton both are and then Logan Web is in Denver so it's a course so we might not have gone there anyway but it is in Denver for the Rockies and Giants chance are in there as well that game also could be a risk so check back on that one later both for web but also for more importantly stacking for today so the key weather spots as far as potential postponements are in Atlanta and Denver I think they'll both be good to go but especially when you're considering pitchers delays always a bigger scare because a delay could yank them from that game early on so check back on whether for Atlanta and Denver again I think they'll play but it does at least introduce a bit more chaos for this late we'll dive on in and get you ready outline what that means and discuss our fun value play for tonight in just one second the first day reminder to make sure you are subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast your quarter PGADFS podcast for the RBC Canadian open amid all the live news yesterday so that was kind of chaotic for sure we still talked about our top plays for this weekend of the RBC Canadian open to get that search for the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast hit subscribe and if you like what you hear leave us a rating and review as well have you ever started a player in fantasy that scores three points while someone on your bench puts up 20 well with draft your team and each week the highest scoring lineup from your roster will be used as you battle for first place all season long leagues can be free to play or for money and range from three to 12 players the NFL season will be here before you know it so head over to fando today and get him on the action age and residency restrictions apply pitching preview for this Wednesday main slate Logan Webb comes in with the highest sour and fan dual despite being a course field kind of odd at $11,000 typically we get about $2,000 discount no dice here Charlie Morton nine or 10 five in that Atlanta rain Corbyn Burns 10,000 Chris Bass at 98 we got Max Scherzer facing Morton and 96 John Gray at 95 Tanner by the 9000 with Dean Kramer Jack Flaherty and Lance Lynn as the other guys at $8000 or higher now we will get to the value play will stick in the value section because I do think that some of the studs could still be in play despite some risk here and there is one top end guy who is not in bad weather kind of is but there is a roof to protect him from it should they decide to deploy which I think they will for today that is John Gray he is at a he's at home they have a retractable roof there I'd assume that they have a close for today that makes the park factor better for this game not a great matchup for great but he is going to be my top guy all things considered Gray is facing the Cardinals and don't love that matchup by any means they have a 109 WRC plus against righties not a ton of strikeouts but Gray himself has been pitching really well Gray did struggle quite a bit to open this year and actually I think stacked against him in one of his games but five stars ago he really cut back on his foreseen fastball usage and that tweak has made all the difference in the world across those five starts Gray has a 3.71 skill interactive era with a 26% strikeout rate he is letting up fly balls but they haven't been all that hard hit the results were great but awesome too just three total earned runs in this stretch across 34 he's had five plus strikeouts in each game he's had eight twice due to the matchup here against St. Louis I have met 6.3 strikeouts tonight so not a huge number but for this late specifically it's actually not that bad and with no weather to deal with here I'm fine building around Gray as my top pitcher so put him there among the studs for today and make John Gray our top guy there now both Max Scherzer and Charlie Morton as mentioned are very viable but dealing with the potential for rain in Atlanta so I don't want to talk about both so we'll talk about just one of them both of them are fine I'm going to talk Scherzer because I prefer him over Morton but if we get the all clear on whether Morton would be very much in play too Scherzer obviously given that he's facing Morton is facing the Braves which is a tough matchup but it's not a low strikeout one they're about average in that department and Scherzer seems like he's almost fully back he's let up one or fewer earned runs in each of his past four games he had a lot of good matchups in there so we should copy out with that but didn't face the Phillies they're not an amazing offense right now but they're fine he held the Phillies to just one earned run nine strikeouts seven innings and this was keyed off similar to Gray with a change insurer's approach he started throwing his change up more often five starts ago and that one start that first one is pretty rough but the rest has been nice even lumping in that bad start he's been pretty good 3.49 is skill interactive ERA 27% strikeout rate 4% walk rate 32% hard hit rate allowed and that does make sense because the change up the one he's been using more has been pretty good this year just a 248 X Woba against it according to baseball savants not a huge strikeout pitch but does help him limit the hard contact so Scherzer's not in a perfect spot here against the Braves in the road but it is enough for me to feel good about it and I like Scherzer enough to put him second behind John Gray so among the studs I will go John Gray one Scherzer two if we get the all clear on whether I go more than three as far as ranking of the studs for tonight as mentioned the studs though are not perfect and we've got a window to spend down and luckily for us there is actually a guy I think worth spending down on that guy is Jaime Berea still searching out to be a starter here for the angels but he had 91 pitches last time out and I think that gives us the leeway to give him a sniff for tonight at just $6200 Berea is facing the Cubs they are a high strikeout offense 25% strikeout rate against righties in the current active roster Berea does give Berea a boost but he has gotten six strikeouts already in each of his first two starts only two starts so far and he had six strikeouts in both the first one came on just 64 pitches but as mentioned he's now fully stretched out and it's not just the strikeouts because the swinging strike rate numbers were there too the marks for Berea and those two games 17.2% and 14.3% respectively so getting whiffs converting them into strikeouts as well and now should have a full leash out there as a pitcher Berea when he was working as a reliever did a great job of keeping hard contact and check and that's something you want to make sure he maintains as he stretches out and he hasn't done it quite as well as he did in the bullpen but it's still been better than average in both of those first two starts again the salary here just $6200 you would basically get to use whatever batters you wanted to use and on such a wide open slated pitcher I really don't think that's the worst approach so you could justify making Berea considering salary your top pitcher the night I might wind up there I do like Grant I do like Scherzer but I think that Berea is at least not discussion which almost never happens to me for a guy with a salary at $6200 so I'm going to have Berea in my player pool for today I think that he should be in yours as well there is plenty of risk here but there are no safe pitchers on tonight's slate so why not let's have some fun let's give it a roll and see what happens I made Berea the top value option for tonight in MLB BFS part of the reason why I think Berea is also in play is because the stacking options all carry pretty high salaries so if I want to load up on the giants on the Dodgers on the Reds might need to find some way to save the salary and Berea is there to save the day so let's talk about the stacks here beginning with the giants at Coors Field again make sure you check the weather there the good thing for us as far as this game is that Coors tends to be pretty patient with playing games when there is bad weather and it looks like the weather will clear it eventually so I'd bet they get this game in even if it doesn't start right at the scheduled first pitch time the giants are facing Connor Siebold who is up to six darts in the rotation and I think we've got enough data here to say it's a stackable situation for sure in those six darts he has a 5.51 skill interactive ERA which is the highest number on the slate his strikeout rate is 15% which means he's letting up a lot of balls in play and a lot of those balls in play are in the air and there's enough hard contact to get by as well ERA for Siebold is 5.46 which could be a lot worse given three of the starts came at Coors Field but the peripherals are definitely concerning the giants roster very tough against righties they just got a lot of guys back and once you add those guys back to the act roster they're almost near the top of the league in WRC plus against righties so I think all signs point to the giants being a great stack once again and I'm going to treat them as such so once again the giants are going to be our top stack of the day yesterday's lineup with Jack Peterson back and Thierry Astrada back I think was a pretty fun one for DFS because 1 through 7 were all what I would deem fun daily fantasy plays and even Patrick Bailey batting eighth is not the worst play in the world and it gives you a lot of flexibility so typically when I stack a team I tend to focus pretty heavily on the guys with the most obvious pass up side I don't want to use a lot of guys with low ISOs who don't steal bases stuff like that here I don't need to be as concentrated because there are more options who can justifiably or who I can see getting me 30 fandall points which is kind of the threshold you want to see a path to for hitters you're using so I think you can diversify here within the stack again I tend to stick to a core and build around guys pretty heavily but here I think I'd be okay being a bit more spread out because would it shock you if Mitch Hannigar or JD Davis outscored everybody else in the stack it would not for me so I think that my process to be concentrated in my stacks with this one specifically I'll be a bit more spread out and trying to get not equal exposure but like pretty evenly distributed exposure across the hopefully top seven guys again within that giant stack for tonight other than course field I feel like the other two top stacks today come from the same game that is the Reds and the Dodgers in Cincinnati we'll start with the Dodgers because they're the more obvious side but I do like the Reds quite a bit as well the Dodgers are facing Brandon Williamson he has made four starts since joining the rotation and it looks similar to what he was doing in the minors the big thing is the plate discipline data he has a 20% strikeout rate with a 12% walk rate both those marks are aligned with what he did in AAA and down there is the rate before his 6.62 he's a 4.29 in the major so far but his expected the array is 6.30 letting up a lot of hard contact but it just hasn't bit him as of yet facing the Dodgers here and I think they're a team that could very much bring the pain there I still against lefties is 250 this year which is bananas they've a 44% fly ball rate and when you put that in Cincinnati where homers flow that's pretty dangerous I think you could argue the Dodgers are in the same tier as a Giants here that's how good this stack is and I think that we got to feel pretty good about them so the Dodgers to me. In the top tier of stacking tonight despite the fact we have another game at course field. Now the one concern with the Dodgers against lefty is that they do platoon a lot and there's always risk that if a guy is in there to face a lefty he could leave once lefty is out. I'm not super concerned about that with Chris Taylor at least he's completed each of his past five starts he has made he's been productive when he has played this year if he starts I think I'd be very intimate 27 now that they're starting to get some guys back here they are healthy than they have been there is risk that Taylor will leave once the lefty is no longer in there but I feel good enough about him to take that risk again he's completed five consecutive starts so I'll go with Chris Taylor feel pretty okay about that and ride with him at 27 if he does wind up starting for today which I would assume that he will other side of the game is fun as well as mentioned it's no a Cinder guard facing the face in the reds and there are a couple reasons I'd want to stack here the first one is a Cinder guards baseline pitching numbers are not ideal. It sounds like his spot in the rotation maybe a bit shaky as of right now. He has a 6.54 era with a 4.64 skill interactive era and those numbers are not getting better either. He's tried upping his curveball usage is past six starts and his Sierra actually goes up to 4.98 in that six start sample. So the adjustments have not worked and the reds should be able to get some hits against him as a result. But the stolen bases are also a huge appeal in this game the Dodgers as a team have led up more stolen bases than any other team baseball and 16 of those have come against Cinder guard specifically the reds have guys who will run and I think we want to emphasize them here and most of them give you at least a bit with the stick as well so it's not just about the speed so the reds to me are in play because they run. I know we should always focus on this but I think for this one specifically it's especially important so to me when I'm stacking the reds I am going to want to focus primarily on guys who will run because that's a key aspect of appeal and stacking against Cinder guard. I'm not going to ignore the guys who don't but I will heavily skew towards those guys who do and it also gives me an excuse to talk up and use LA Dela Cruz. He is more than happy to run. He had 11 stolen bases and triple A before he came up 12 home runs 55% hard hit rates. He will strike out a bit. That's the one negative here but he clean up in his debut his salary is $2,800. It will not be contrarian. Dela Cruz might be the most popular batter on this slate but DFS is supposed to be fun right and I want to have some fun. So I'm going to use LA Dela Cruz. I will stack the rest of the reds too but you know I'm taking the outlet to have some fun and use LA Dela Cruz and focusing on reds who will steal bases so top stacks for today going to be the giants the Dodgers and the Reds. Moving on to things to watch. I did want to talk briefly about Corbin Burns salary is $10,000 that number is higher than either Scherzer or John Gray which is why Burns wasn't super high on my list. But he does seem to be trending back up. He has seven plus strikeouts in four of his past five starts so he's back in the consideration sets. I'm just not a fan of using guys against the Orioles so I'll likely be on Burns pretty soon but I'm not quite there yet. He's at least viable if you like him but I'm not quite there personally as of right now. We got away from stacking against Patrick Corbin recently and he earned that via pitching pretty well. I do think we can dabble back in those waters with Arizona tonight. Corbin is sorry I went from talking Corbin Burns to Patrick Corbin very confusing but Corbin has been letting up a 48% hard hit rate in seven starts with his slide usage being down. The Diamondbacks offense has hit lefties a lot better recently so if they go overlooked they could be a solid option. It is a revenge game for Patrick Corbin of course we have to consider that as always 63% boost as a result of their revenge game but still would consider Arizona for tonight. Finally Randy Vasquez starting for the Yankees here facing the White Sox. He was walking too many guys down in AAA not a ton of swings and misses. It's a great part for home runs obviously so I think the White Sox are a potential stacking option beyond the others we discussed. They're not the best offense so that's why they're pretty well below Arizona and they're below the top three stacks as well but I'd give some consideration to the White Sox. If there is an individual you like you can go there too just in general not quite as high in them as the other ones mentioned. Let's finish up here with the Dinger calls for today we're going to go two fun batters because again DFS is supposed to be fun while trying to earn us some money and both these guys I think can do that. The boring one Mookie Betts been awesome against lefties but awesome overall this year he actually has more walks than strikeouts against lefties. Great park for some power obviously we could have gone Will Smith could have gone JD Martinez could have gone Chris Taylor could have gone a lot of guys against the lefty but let's go Mookie. Mookie Betts the boring home run call for today. The fun one Ellie Dela Cruz hits his first majorly baseball home run for today facing off against Cinder guard again the main appeal against Cinder guard is a stolen bases but Dela Cruz has power too. Hit and clean up. He's at Great American ballpark. What more could you ask for so Dinger calls for today on this Wednesday Mookie Betts and Ellie Dela Cruz. That is all that we have here for today on the solo shot but as mentioned don't forget to check out our PGA DFS podcast breaking down the RBC Canadian Open that is up right now in the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast. If you like what you hear leave us a thumbs up over on YouTube or leave us a five star rating over on Apple podcasts. If you've got any questions for me I am on Twitter at Jim Saunders. You can also follow the FanDuel Podcast Network at FanDuel Podcast. I want to thank you all for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your MLB DFS lineups for tonight. We'll talk to you once again tomorrow to break down Thursday Slate. This has been the solo shot right here on the FanDuel Podcast Network.