 So the election this Saturday represents a political earthquake in Ireland. It's going to be seen, I think, as a before and after moment in Irish history, when for the first time in the century which the two-party system has basically served the interests of the ruling class in Ireland, that political setup has received a shattering blow, with Sinn Fein topping the poll with 24% of the vote, and the two main right-wing capitalist parties, Fina Foyle and Fina Gale, received respectively 22% and less than 21% in the case of Fina Gale. And this represents a political earthquake in Ireland. It is shaking the foundations of one of the key pillars of the establishment and of the capitalist system in Ireland, the two-party system. And really it represents the fact that Ireland has now caught up with the rest of the world. It was previously hailed by some liberal commentators as defying the collapse of the center ground. You had Leo Veradka, the Taoiseach until recently, presenting himself as basically Ireland's answer to Emmanuel Macron. He was the saviour of the center ground and we'd seen apparently in Ireland, despite the fact that there was a massive effect from the 2008 crisis, a 64 billion euro bailout back in 2008, an ECB bailout and everything else that went along with it, a decade of austerity. Despite that fact you'd seen no Podemos, you'd seen no rise of populism either of the left or of the right. And so there was this idea of Irish exceptionalism, that Ireland was somehow immune from the processes of the disintegration of the center ground, of political polarization, of instability that is tearing apart every capitalist regime around the world basically. Now that illusion has been shattered with this election, which took everyone by surprise. In fact it even took many on the left and including Sinn Fein themselves were completely taken by surprise with this, particularly after the poor performance that the left suffered last year in the European elections and therefore as a result they only put forward a number in the 40s candidates for TDs, for the candidates for the Doyle elections and therefore as a result actually of this underestimation of their own strength, Sinn Fein actually were pipped to the post in terms of the number of representatives in the Doyle, with 37 as against Fina Foil who have 38. Nonetheless, despite this fact, there are very few options now for the ruling class in Ireland going forward. The situation is extremely bleak and extremely unstable now going forward. Now what underlies this situation? Well the ruling class hoped and miscalculated with this election because they hoped it would be an election around, for example, the handling of Brexit or the two main right-wing capitalist parties were competing with each other over the question of which is the more economically competent, whatever that means. However, in this election what fundamentally came to the fore was class anger. This was the basis of this huge political upset that has happened in Ireland. Class questions dominated this election and what it shows is a tremendous swing to the left politically amongst the working class and amongst the youth in Ireland. In fact, when voters were asked what the main reasons were for them voting for the first preference party, you have a preference system in Ireland with the single transferable vote system. The leading answer was the question of healthcare with 32% answering that that was the reason they voted for their party, followed by housing on around 25%. With Brexit only at 1% and immigration itself only at 1%. In fact, it should be mentioned as an aside that the far right in Ireland did exceptionally badly. They did atrociously with Gemma O'Doherty, one of the most prominent far right candidates, receiving less than 2%. Now, why is this? Again, we've been told by some of the liberal commentators that there is some sort of mysterious exceptionalism in Ireland, but the reason actually that right-wing populism wasn't able to succeed in these elections was fundamentally it proves the fact that the right only prosper where there is the lack of a bold left-wing alternative. This was clearly the case in Ireland. You had this left-wing alternative in Sinn Fein as far as the majority of workers and youth were concerned. Sinn Fein actually ran on a very left-wing programme, a programme of very progressive left-wing reforms, such as, for example, abolishing regressive taxations, introducing a rent freeze in Ireland at the moment. You have a booming economy and this is leading to a speculative property boom and a result of that for ordinary working-class people is that they are not feeling the benefits of this boom. You are seeing rents skyrocketing. You're talking about one and a half thousand euros a month to rent a poxy little apartment in Dublin. Therefore, these promises to freeze rent for tax rebates for working-class families, to build 100,000 new homes, to invest heavily in healthcare, in education and so on. To do this on the basis of progressive taxation that would take that money from the banks and the multinationals who are hoarding that money, this was a very left-wing programme. It was a class-based programme and it appealed to the working class and the youth and it was tremendously successful in doing so. In fact, amongst all age groups except the over 65, Sinn Fein came out as the biggest party. Amongst the under 25s, Fina Gael and Fina Foyle, the two main right-wing pro-capitalist parties, came out with less than 30% of the vote, which is an astonishing figure. But even taken overall, combined, these are the two main parties of the two-party system in Ireland that has existed since the Civil War in the 20s effectively. They only took a combined vote share of 42%. Therefore, this represents a shattering blow to the two-party system. It has caused panic, actually, amongst the upper echelons of the capitalist class in Ireland. This has reflected nowhere else better than on the stock exchange, where you've seen a collapsing share price of some very... It's very significant where this turbulence in the stock market has most affected. The Bank of Ireland, for example, has seen an 8.31% fall in their share prices since the election. AIB has seen a 5.44% fall in their share price and 700 million euros wiped off the value of their shares. And then you have others, construction companies, landlord conglomerates, the biggest landlord in Ireland. One particular company lost 8.62% of the value of its shares. So you can see the banks, the construction companies, the landlords in particular are terrified at the rise of Schimpfane. And they understand the revolutionary implications, actually, of this development, which we'll go on to in a minute. But throughout this campaign, you could see that actually the consciousness in Ireland shifted extremely quickly. There are a whole number of indications of this fact. And it was only in the last two weeks that you saw a dramatic rise in Schimpfane's numbers, polling numbers. And suddenly the bourgeoisie, the capitalist class in Ireland, began to panic. And they responded, first of all, of course, by trying to lock out Schimpfane, trying to ignore them, and so on. In fact, many people compared the behavior of RTE, the public news broadcaster in Ireland, to its behavior up until the 1990s, with the Section 31 censorship laws against Schimpfane and the IRA. Of course, at a certain point, it was impossible to ignore them any longer. They tried to keep Schimpfane out of the big leaders' debate between the Fina Gale and Fina Foyle leaders, Veradka and Michael Martin. But, of course, eventually, it was impossible to ignore their rise any further. It was necessary to change tack, essentially. And this is what the ruling class did with a vicious campaign of attacks, which really had a bit of the whiff of the panic of the British capitalist class in December and previously, when faced with the challenge of Jeremy Corbyn. You had all sorts of reasons that they said that Schimpfane is not a normal party. We can't possibly go into coalition with Schimpfane, both Fina Gale and Fina Foyle ruled this out. The reasons given, well, apparently, it was because of Schimpfane's opposition to the Special Criminal Court, which was introduced in the 1970s and is an absolute travesty in terms of getting rid of the democratic right to trial by jury. But they tried to make out that Schimpfane was soft on crime. They said it was about the centralized structure of Schimpfane. And then, of course, they pulled out of the hat inevitably the question of their IRA links. And in particular, the murder of a young man called Paul Quinn in 2007. All of this actually, though, had no effect whatsoever. And in fact, the independent, one of the main pro-capitalist newspapers in Ireland, asked the question. The headline was quite indignant. They said, so why didn't young voters care about Schimpfane crimes? And the conclusion they come to is that this election was all about edgy millennials, basically, just proving their edginess by voting for Schimpfane despite their connections with the IRA. Of course, this is a completely condescending outlook and completely fails to understand what motivated the large numbers of workers and youth who turned in a big way towards Schimpfane. Fundamentally, they were attracted by Schimpfane because of their left wing bold program. And secondly, they were repulsed by this anti-establishment campaign, which was being, which was transparent in its cynicism and in the class fear, which it represented, the ruling class in Ireland care no more about the death of Paul Quinn than the British ruling class care about anti-Semitism in the Labour Party, quite frankly. It was cynically being used by the ruling class to try to discredit a party, which they feared because of the mass of workers and youth which they saw behind that party. And in fact, actually, it should be said that the campaign by the ruling class was so vociferous against Schimpfane, that it actually had the effect of painting the party as more anti-establishment than it actually was. It bolsters their anti-establishment credentials. Despite the fact that Schimpfane for the past few years under Mary Lou MacDonald, the leader, has been increasingly angling to enter into coalition, to presenting itself, trying to present itself as more respectable, so as to be a future coalition partner with one of the two main right wing pro-capitalist parties. And if we look in the north, of course, the rhetoric that Schimpfane, the left wing rhetoric that Schimpfane has been using in the south, jars very much with their behaviour in the north, where for ten years they've been in coalition with the DUP, let us not forget, where they've been carrying out austerity, they've been carrying out PFI implementation, and so on and so forth. And so, yeah, we see that they have been presented themselves and succeeded in presenting themselves as an anti-establishment party. But why, I think this is the question, why is it that the ruling class in Ireland are so afraid of Schimpfane? What is it exactly that they are afraid of? This party, for example, has shown on a number of occasions, as I've mentioned, that they are prepared to compromise, they're prepared to go into coalition with the right wing, they're prepared to water down their programme. And in fact, when, of course, this question of the murder of this young man in 2007 was raised, they were, you know, they held their hands up and particularly the leadership in Dublin wanted to be seen to be doing something about it, to understand, to be understanding and so on. They wanted to distance themselves from their IRA past and everything else. Of course, all of these things that IRA passed, the centralised structure of the party, all of these are fundamentally excuses. It has nothing to do with this whatsoever. It is the masses behind Schimpfane, fundamentally, that the bosses are deathly afraid of. It's not Schimpfane per se, it is the masses that stand behind them. And in fact, understand, I think, really the fear of the ruling class. We have to look at how Ireland has been developing really over the course of decades. Now, as I say, the ruling class in Ireland, the capitalist class, after gaining independence in the 1920s, came to power on the back of a treaty with the British, which agreed to partition Ireland. And of course, that partitioning of Ireland led to a civil war. And out of that civil war issued the two main pro-capitalist parties. On one side, you had the pro-treaty side, which became Fina Gale. And on the other side, you had the anti-treaty side, which became Fina Foyle. There was obviously a lot of enmity between these two parties on account of the fact that they were on either side of the civil war. It should be noted that Fina Foyle, despite presenting themselves as a Republican party, opposed the treaty with the British, not because they were opposed to partition or anything else, but because of their actual opposition to the fact that Ireland, or the south of Ireland as it is, the free state as it was, was a dominion of the British Empire. They had to give the oath of loyalty to the British crown still. And in fact the basis of capitalist rule in Ireland was based upon this two-party system and the domination in particular of Ireland by the Catholic Church that guaranteed the spiritual domination of the capitalist class over the masses in Ireland. Ireland was held in a state of backwardness and the ruling class in Ireland has always rested upon everything that is backward and reactionary in Irish society. But Ireland has gone through a tremendous transformation in the past few decades, in particular since the 1990s you've had a massive boom of investments called the Celtic Tiger, where fundamentally it was American high-tech capital flooded into Ireland using Ireland as a low-tax base of operations to penetrate the European market. Now this had a huge transformative effect over the course of decades. Between 1994 and 2008 Ireland witnessed an average growth rate per year of 7.4 percent. It's completely transformed Ireland and in particular the most progressive outcome of that period of boom has been the creation of a youthful urban educated working class that is unburdened by tradition, unburdened by defeats. It is probably one of the most youthful and educated working classes in the whole of Europe. And this is a revolutionary factor in Irish society. Now why has it been then that since 2008 there has apparently been no social explosion like we've seen in say Greece or Portugal or Spain? Well of course there have been big strikes, there have been very bitter episodes of class struggle, particularly after 2008 and 2009 and 2010 you had big public sector strikes. But of course the trade union leaders themselves, the leadership of the workers movement, was capable temporarily and partially to paralyze the working class through their misleadership. They came to a whole number of deals with the one right-wing regime after another to hold back the workers accepting austerity and accepting their role as basically strike breakers. This was the role that the trade union leaders have played since 2008. And of course then the ruling class were able with this in partnership with the trade unions to force one round of austerity, one round of pay restraint after another upon the working class. And you've had one government after another has been carrying this out but of course we as Marxists we understand that eventually an accumulation of stresses leads to a turning point that just like in the tectonic plates within the Earth's crust eventually the buildup of pressure leads to a slippage. You have a revolution, an earthquake. Quantity transforms into quality, this is how we refer to it. And what we can see if you look beneath the surface and these empiricists, these liberal commentators are completely incapable of looking beneath the surface basically. What you've seen in Ireland is a slow crumbling actually of the establishment of the basis of capitalist rule in Ireland that has led to a crisis of the entire regime eventually emerging and now exploding spectacularly. First of all post 2008 up until 2011 you actually had a phenofoil government in coalition with the Green Party carrying out austerity. Then in 2011 you had an election phenofoil were kicked out the Green Party collapsed and you had a huge surge in favour of the Labour Party. They went from about 10% up to 20% on the basis of left-wing language. So you could see the masses were already at this time looking for a way out. Of course then they were themselves, they went into coalition with Fina Gale. Again you had another right-wing government carrying out austerity and attacks upon the working class and they in turn collapsed and have completely collapsed about four or five percent now. They're in irrelevance, they've been reduced to the status of a reformist sect basically in Ireland. And then in 2016 with the election then for the first time in the history of the state you have the two main parties getting less than 50% of the vote together and therefore for the capitalist class to establish stable rule Fina Gale and phenofoil that have been at each other's throats apparently at least in appearances since the Civil War were forced to rest upon each other through the confidence and supply arrangement. It was a grand coalition in all but name essentially and this has completely of course discredited the two-party system. This was a turning point and they needed however despite the fact that this was not good from the point of view of ruling class it exposed the bankruptcy of the two-party system. Nevertheless it was necessary because Ireland was entering into a period where you had not only the need to impose more and more austerity and now that is still the case they need a strong government to carry out austerity despite the fact that Ireland is booming once more they have 200 billion euros worth of state debt which is about more than 40 000 euros for every man woman and child in the Republic and they still have this debt despite the fact that we're coming to the end of this boom now there is a new recession approaching we can see this we can see all of the symptoms of this on a world scale and therefore the ruling class needs to get fighting fit for this new recession which is approaching and so they need the working class to take more the working class on the other hand has taken about as much as they can take they can see that there is a boom and they're demanding that they get their fair share which they see that as they see that they haven't had any of the share of this latest boom that is re-emerging and so the working class has taken all it can take and the ruling class needs them to take more this is a recipe for social explosions and we've seen now already with very militant strikes where the trade union leaders are not able to hold the working class back any longer you've seen an explosion of class struggle a couple of years ago you saw the Bus-Aryan strike which turned into effectively a wildcat public transport general strike last year you saw of course the nurses strike so even though the strike levels are on a very low level because of the role of the trade union leaders where they do occur it's extremely bitter bitterly fought struggles are taking place workers have basically taken about as much as they can take and yet they need a strong government for them to implement greater austerity from the point of view of the ruling class but then there are other questions as well of course Brexit is added into the mix and then of course you have the question of the national question re-emerging in the north of Ireland and so the rise of Shinfane is in this context of course they are promising on the one hand progressive taxation which would undermine the basis of the entire economy of course in the south of Ireland that you have a very parasitic ruling class which bases itself on attracting foreign direct investment through low tax levels and of course the masses behind them with tremendous expect placing tremendous expectations upon them and thirdly I mentioned already of course the national question was low on the agenda in terms of the reasons people voted for Shinfane nonetheless from the point of view of the ruling class they're now facing a dilemma what do they do what sort of government do they form now of course they can they can try to exclude Shinfane that is a possibility they can Fiena Gael Fiena Foyle the Greens can try to form and whoever else could try to form some sort of everyone but Shinfane coalition but that has its own problems of course because it would only be Shinfane and the left wing parties that would represent any opposition whatsoever and therefore it would only bolster Shinfane further down the line so they could have they could try for such a thing although of course for their own for their own particular reasons certain of the parties may not wish to go into it for their own personal reasons even if that is not if is in the interest of the ruling class or and some within Fiena Foyle in particular have posed this the ruling class could could bring Shinfane into government they could bring them into government either as part of a right wing coalition or they could stand aside and allow them to try and form a left wing coalition and act as an opposition essentially in fact you've had some within Fiena Foyle basically saying that the Shinfane needs a lick of government to basically take the shine off of them that's what that that's the the way that some of in the ruling class see it but that is poses with it all sorts of dangers there's going to be huge pressures on Shinfane from the mass the mass of workers who have had enough basically and who do see this party as a left wing party and of course for in in in exchange for any coalition that Fiena Foyle would be able to put together cobble together with Shinfane although that's looking unlikely and Shinfane have their own reasons that they're not stupid of course they've seen what's happened to the Labour Party and the Greens in the past what would happen to that is a sign of what would happen to Shinfane if they go into coalition with the right wing parties but any coalition of course would require some sort of compromises some sort of compromises in particular on the national question and increasingly that is going to become a very important question in the coming years we've seen with the collapse of storm on three years ago that of course the situation is very unstable and Brexit has only added to that instability and the ruling class in Ireland don't want to touch the national question with a barge pole they do not want to take possession of the north they don't want reunification in actual fact despite the fact that it's actually a very popular amongst the mass of workers and youth in the south it's you're talking about upwards of 70% being in favour of reunification the ruling class themselves however the capitalist the bosses they don't want reunification number one they can't afford to basically subsidize the north to which the British state is currently doing to the tune of about 10 billion pounds each year they are much less able to actually carry out that subsidy but there are other reasons of course they don't want to come into conflict with British imperialism and if they do start raising the question of a border pole if they do start raising a question of reunification with Ireland that is going to bring the capitalist class in the south of Ireland onto a big collision with their far more powerful capitalist neighbour in Britain and finally of course I think this is important to state when discussing this national question Sinn Fein themselves have called for an all-island forum to basically discuss the question of unification and when as we see the entire two-party system is in crisis the constitutional basis of the state and therefore of capitalist rule in Ireland is in crisis is being questioned every pillar of the state and every pillar of the establishment is mired in crisis and in scandal from the Gardie to the courts to the politicians they don't want to throw open the question to a generalised debate involving the masses across Ireland they don't want to bring in the masses into politics to discuss these sort of questions which the question of unification of course it would open up an entire debate on the constitutional basis of the state and so we see despite all of this then the options which present themselves to the ruling class are extremely limited the there is one alternative of course which is that they don't manage to cobble together anything none of the parties manage to cobble together anything from the point of view of the ruling class this is even worse because it will mean new elections and possibly Sinn Fein coming out even stronger but I think what's important to state is that despite the fact that Sinn Fein historically as a party going back to the 70s represented a right-wing traditionalist split actually within republicanism despite the fact that its program is contradictory it is doing one thing in the north and saying another in the south and despite the fact that the basis that they are arguing for unification of the republicanism of the Sinn Fein leadership is on the basis of of reunifying on a capitalist basis they don't talk about a 32-county socialist republic anymore nonetheless the ruling class in Ireland fears the masses which stands behind Sinn Fein and fears in a distorted way that the masses of Ireland will reconnect with their revolutionary traditions that they will reconnect with the tradition of socialist republicanism the tradition of James Larkin of James Connolly and that once the working class rediscovers these traditions they will find themselves up against an invincible enemy basically equipped with the correct ideas to overthrow capitalism in Ireland they see that their period of stability is gone now and the period which opens up is a period of instability and it is going to be a period which is going to be a sharp learning curve for the masses in Ireland in which they will rediscover their revolutionary traditions