 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey, guys. Good evening, everybody. Welcome to another edition of theaxxotrader.com nightly wrap-up show. Hope everybody had a good Monday. Hope everybody had a great weekend if you are brand new to the channel. Welcome aboard. Welcome aboard. Thank you for tuning in. You know, we try to give a very, very unbiased view of the markets on a day-to-day basis via technical analysis, no opinions, no agendas, just more impressive of the data, collecting other data, and trying to spit it out and see if it sticks. So let's talk about the tape, right? So the NASDAQ coming into today's trading session, if you watched the video over the weekend, we saw, you know, that the NASDAQ 100 first closed below the 10-day moving average. You could see it. And the question was, were we going to confirm, were the bears going to confirm today and take it down to the 20-day moving average? It was a very, very weird day because if you look at the beginning of the day, that's exactly what happened. And we'll get to the individual pivots in a second. But the cues came down. They confirmed Friday's channel. They started washing. And these started washing. Tesla initially started washing. Netflix that we talked about started washing. But then something happened, right? The bulls actually woke up and at one point almost reclaimed back the 10-day moving average. The problem with that is it's almost, right? It's almost. And if you look at where we are on the closing bell, you can see it right now. The cues have put in lower highs and lower lows now for four consecutive days. One, two, three, four. Four consecutive highs, four consecutive lows. And before you turn around and say, well, look how strong Tesla was today. And Tesla did a good job today. Absolutely did. It had a dead cat bounce. We were prepared for another channel back to the downside today. But once we figured out, hey, the stock is just not breaking below the previous day's channel. It's not continuing. There was an actual upside pivot that we had today. We'll get to that in a second. So Tesla had its dead cat bounce. If you look at the option flow, this is what you're looking at right here. This was the first time that we actually saw some call buying coming into the name. Probably in about three, four days as it's marked decline. You can see some bets here. 282.50 weeklies, 277.50 weeklies, 270 weeklies. A massive buyer came in for next year's March 425 calls, lighting up the scoreboard with a million dollars. But it was at least nice to see some call buying that was out of the money for the stock. Now, again, is this a dead cat bounce? Is this finally the washout that the bulls had in mind to kind of reestablish control? We don't know yet, right? We don't know yet. I think tomorrow if we can get above today's channel, look, there's a shot we get back in the five day where I'm going to start getting more bullish on the stock is if we reclaim the five in the 10 day. I think, and we'll get to the kind of it's correlating with the Nasdaq 100, the Qs. But if Tesla could get above the 277 level on the daily close, that will reclaim not only the 10 day moving average, it's going to reclaim the five. And the five is the strongest sentiment. That's exactly what I like to look for. And it's a very, very important level. It could easily gap up to that level, get rejected and start reversing back down. So I don't think the Tesla bulls are out of the woods just yet. But I think if we can get a close in the next couple of days above 277, that will really give a green light for a potential squeeze back to that 299, 300 level that we saw in institutional money flows coming in ahead of earnings. But if look, if it gets rejected, it starts turning back around. And again, we still have a lot of downside. Again, remember, we want to be prepared on both sides. It's not about calling something. This isn't social media. You're either right or you're wrong. The stock either confirms or it doesn't. You want to be prepared on both sides if you do trade both sides of the market. And I think every professional trader or aspiring professional trader should do so. You have to be conscious on both sides. I do like the option flow today. I do recognize it was a really good reversal today. Again, we'll get to the pinnets in a second. But the most important part is we're still underneath daily supply until we get above that daily supply, especially that 277 level on the five day moving average. This will be deemed the dead cat bounce until it's not tomorrow. Right. Tomorrow the big ones, the big ones coming out with earnings. You got Microsoft and you'll see by the option flow. Some reason I'm on the layer here. You'll see by the option flow, they were coming with some pretty big size. You can see here by the flow, they were coming with some pretty big size for the August 18 expiration. As you can see, Microsoft is in the 340s. They were betting the 375. Look at the size here. Half a million, 775 for the 380s. Half a million for the 380s. Another 210 grand for the 380s. Ironically, though, this is for August, right? They're reporting tomorrow after the close. So it would have been a lot more aggressive. They were coming for the weekly calls. But this is very odd considering the stock is coming out with earnings tomorrow and they're betting 30, 40 points out of the money for next month expiration, which is very, very odd. But again, all eyes are on Microsoft. And the question with Microsoft going into tomorrow earnings is exactly the same thing with Netflix and Tesla, right? Is this move baked into, well, the numbers, right? No matter what the numbers are going to be reported. Is this going to be a scenario just like Tesla and Netflix? Again, you could turn around and say, well, it's a completely different scenario. Netflix got hit because Wall Street realized it was just a growth of subscribers based on kind of the killing of the sharing of passwords. Tesla got killed because, I don't want to say killed, but went down in earnings because they were announced higher revenues on lower margins. So maybe Microsoft is not exactly the same thing. But again, to be very interesting to watch if that plays out the same way. Another biggie for tomorrow is going to be Google, right? Again, for some reason, I'm freezing up here, I'm not sure. Google, they were coming in for some pretty aggressive coal buying as well. You can see here, they were coming in, the stock is at 121s. They were coming in for the weekly 130s, 129s, 135s, 135s. So again, Google, just like Microsoft, are going to be the two biggies going into tomorrow's earnings announcements. And the question is, again, can they knock out the core despite how big their run has been? Again, we'll see. That's to be determined. What was interesting today about the session was, it was a very mixed bag. So Tesla had a nice DebtCAD bounce. Netflix finally bounced into the close. This could possibly be setting up in the next couple of days for a DebtCAD bounce, just like Tesla did. Again, Tesla was down four days in a row. Same with Netflix, it finally woke up into the close. Something to watch for tomorrow. But the big ones were really running today where the Chinese stocks say. Look at names like Alibaba. Alibaba had a really, really big move. If you look at the options for Alibaba, you can see they were coming for some pretty good-sized bets for the hundreds all across the board for the September 115s. But look at all these stocks. And NIO was a really, really smooth trader, broke out today. And this is where we talk about watching option flow as the stock breaks out. If you look at NIO's option flow today, you will see that they were coming for the 12 and the 12 weeklies, right? The 12 weeklies, the 11 and a half weeklies. But they were coming for the 12 weeklies as the stock was breaking out above this 1140 area. But again, a lot of nice moves here in the Chinese stocks as well. XPEV was another one that had a nice big spike. The one weird part about today's session was if you guys remember Friday, there was that rebalancing. It was the only second rebalancing of the NASDAQ 100 in the last 25 years. And I'll tell you, there was a lot of weird moves today. For every stock that was up, there was a lot of stocks that did not participate at all today. Amazon, you had Meta, AMD, these were all red, right? All red today. It's a very, very notable letter. You was red on the day today, AMD. We talked about Intel. So it was a very, very weird kind of cycle that discontinued a value of the weight index that we've known. All of a sudden, all these stocks, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Tesla, the top seven biggest weighted names all lost about nearly two points off their way. So you kind of saw that today with the rest of the market as a lot of stocks were selling off. The Q's really weren't dodging that much. But the biggest story, again, going into tomorrow's session is, well, again, four days in a row of lower highs. And again, for me to really feel bullish about the market and start putting risk back on overnight, because I have nothing overnight as far as the day trading aspect, the Q's, again, like we talked about on the nightly video on Saturday, the Q's need to reclaim back 380. Okay, 380 would be the five-day moving average and it would break this downtrend. So going into tomorrow, again, keep this in mind, guys, four days in a row of lower highs, lower lows. We start taking out today's ranges. We're going to go lower. But again, if the bulls start reclaiming back 380, we will have a pretty good rally. We might have a stalemate for tomorrow just because it's one day ahead of the FOMC. FOMC, obviously, is on Wednesday. So we could run into a kind of wait-and-see scenario. We'll always find something to do. I have no doubt about it. But the key is the big rate decision come two o'clock on Wednesday. Another rate hype. We'll see how much. We'll see what the language is after the decision. I think that will obviously set the tone for the rest of the week. So let's talk about today's pivots. Let's talk about today's pivots. So Tesla, we talked about on the weekend, 25580, if it builds below, can flush. Not a big move at all. Not a big move at all. It took out the 25580, went down to like the 254. They held the bottom of the range and the stock started reversing again. Really a little bit oversold. But again, a little initial cash flow before the reversal. We actually had a pivot back to the upside. I'll show you later. Cues, again, they flushed below Friday's low. We took the pivot 375-19 if it flushes below. It has potential of 372. Got nowhere near that. The initial flush, you could see it off the five minute here. The initial flush was actually pretty good. I mean, it was pretty good here. I went from that 75-20 all the way down to 74-30s. And then they started a reversing course just like everything else. But again, sometimes some cash flow is better than no cash flow. Meta actually did not participate and the stock lost more value today. 291-20 if it builds below can flush. Here was Meta. It took out the 291-20 and traded all the way down to 288. Again, not participating in this rally like a lot of things. Same thing with AMD. The initial flush was fine. 109.25 if it builds below can flush. Here was AMD. Again, not a big flush, right? You could see by the five minute, everything happened at the same time. It took out the 109.25 and traded all the way down to 108.50s and then a reverse course like everything else. But again, it still ended the day with lower highs just like the Q's put in four days in a row of lower highs and lower lows as well. But again, not every single trade needs to be this magnificent trade. Sometimes it's just cash flow. 423, Netflix if it builds below can flush. Here was Netflix. Got down to 419. Actually a pretty good move here. You could see here how violent the move was here. Took out the 423, traded all the way down to 419 before a reverse course. That's why I'm trying to see if maybe there's a dead cat balance in this thing for the next couple of days. Nice move here. Coinbase, I don't want to say I screwed up Coinbase. I don't really trade Coinbase a lot. I wasn't comfortable in how thin the stock was. I took it off for a cup of coffee gain and the stock just imploded. It is what it is. 98.70 and 97.56 needs to build below. Here was Coin. You can see the stock got literally fell apart right after I covered it. It is what it is. So if fully guys who did hold it, great job. Got a $3.04 move. I basically made about $0.16 on the trade. Can't make that up. Anyway, so that's that Tesla again. Tesla actually got green today. 261 needs to build. The initial move on Tesla, I took like a dollar and changed off of it. The initial move, which kind of sucked. But here was the sneaky pivot. It started reaching and actually went red. I got stopped out, break even on the bounce. Again, just some cash flow. Then the stock just absolutely exploded out of nowhere. Unfortunately, I didn't get back in fully. You guys did. Congratulations. WW nice little pop there. $9 needs to build. Here was WW. It took out 9. Went into the 930s. Writing to supply and Neo. Neo was really good. 11 years, like we say here on to the left. They were coming with a bunch of $12 calls. 1140 needs to build. They were coming for the 12 and a $12 and a half calls. So here was Neo, beautiful run, beautiful trade. Right into the $12 area. You can see really, really strong move. Trading into the $12 area. Congratulations for you guys. Caught that as well. NVIDIA nice little pop. 249 needs to build. Intra day. Here was a NVIDIA gave a $2 pop. Intra day. Here it is. Here's the eras right here. See this old 49-20 level, right? 49-20. Traded about $2 on the way up before kind of reversing course. And I believe that was it. Yeah, that's it. So we know our levels for tomorrow. We know the ramifications of four days in a row of lower highs, lower lows on the cues. It's going to be interesting to see if the bulls can finally break the downtrend and reclaim that five-day moving average. If they don't, well, then we have Microsoft and Google coming out with earnings after the close. And maybe there could start reclaiming the numbers for us off of Thursday sessions. Guys, God bless everybody. Have a great night. On God's help, I'll see you all tomorrow. Take it.