 What's up guys, this is Alex from Xtradez back to you with another weekly trade ideas list. Hope everybody had a wonderful trading week and a great weekend. We had an amazing week last week, so it has some great call setups on the market and in our video as well. We had a FDX which had a really nice break and retest trade. There was WBA which is Walgreens, broke out of the downtrend line, got some nice upside and also Walmart which reversed off the bottom of demand pretty well. So if you want to go back and look at the three setups and see if you can find some educational value out of that, I feel like those setups were pretty nice and really good for longs and it wasn't too late to enter on either of them. I feel like they gave you a chance to enter at a decent price. You didn't overpay or anything and there was minimal drawdown even on some of them, so pretty nice setups. Hopefully we have some pretty good setups this week too. This time this week though, I do only have three setups and the reason why is because I didn't really see anything out of my list of 200 plus names. So look, I go through 220 tickers every Sunday, go through this list right here. You can see 221, I go through that whole list, takes me about an hour or two and then I pretty much break it down into setups and I see what I like best, right? Well this week, I see a lot of overextension on the market. People are chasing it. They're pretty much just chasing the trend, right? But a lot of things are looking a little overbought to me, so really doesn't appeal to me too much on the long side. But as well, we do have big tech earnings coming up, so we have even more. Last week, we had Microsoft and Tesla. This week, we have Meta, which is originally Facebook. We got Amazon, we got Apple, we got Google. So I mean, we just got a crazy lineup this week as well as we have the FOMC meeting, so Jerome Powell is going to be speaking and doing a press conference on Wednesday at about 2.30. For Monday, you can see we have no economic data schedule, so you won't really see any crazy pre-market movement, I don't think, from e-commerce data. Tuesday, not really seeing anything crazy either. That's really that market moving. Wednesday, on Fed Day, we do have the PMI, we do have ISM manufacturing. But then you can see Fed Chair Jerome Powell does have the news conference 2.30. Thursday, we have initial jobless claims. That could give a good insight to the labor market. Then Friday, another big one. So non-farm payrolls, which is, I mean, pretty crazy movement, to be honest. Pretty much every time the non-farms comes out, I mean, there's just insane volatility, especially in 2022, so we'll have to see how that goes. So yeah, that's for economic data and pretty much what the Fed is going to be doing on Wednesday. For earnings, some notable names here. We got Exxon, Big Oil, you got Pfizer, AMD, McDonald's, UPS, Taterpillar. You got Meta, you got SOTY, you got Waste Management. You got Google, you got Apple, Eli Lilly. Bristol Myers, you got Amazon, Shell, Starbucks, Q-Com, Gilead Sciences. We've got them Friday, not really seeing anything that sticks out to me Friday. But I mean, you can just see just another earnings field week that can definitely move markets. Most importantly, the FOMC meeting is coming, so make sure you trade safe. I'm not going to be swing trading anything into FOMC. I'm going to be doing strictly day trades this week, which is also why you see a limit of watchlists this week, and we only have three tickers to go over. So this could be a quick video, but either way, we're still going to cover the indexes like we do. We'll go over the SPY, QQQ, IWM, the VIX, DXY, all that good stuff. So our first setup here, we're looking at Boyle. So this is a ETF, I'm guessing tied to natural gas. If you pay attention to natural gas, you know, it's just been getting slammed. Minus the fact that the MACD is positive, this has been diverging from that and still going down regardless. But now we're seeing an increase in volume on the daily. MACD is still positive, so I'm wondering if maybe we could get a technical rebalance to the upside. So for Boyle here, I'm going to be looking at calls, maybe for a move up to supply. Keep in mind you wouldn't be in this very long if you plan on not swinging through FOMC. FOMC is Wednesday. So if you enter something on Monday, you know, you might be de-risking by Wednesday. If you're de-risking by Wednesday, it's because you want to avoid that risk holding into the FOMC meeting. Another good thing about maybe cutting before then, because implied volatility on options is going to drop off as soon as, you know, as soon as the news is pretty much out of the way. People are not anticipating such a big move anymore. Implied volatility does drop and that does pretty much, it cuts premiums down a little bit on value. But for Boyle here, you can see, I mean, I broke this huge 17.05 weekly support. That's pretty much as low as I could put it until it broke. Finally broke that. But now, I mean, on the daily, it's just, it's just way overdone to me. I mean, it's just looking crazy. I feel like it could get a technical rebalance to the upside. You can maybe argue that this downtrend line needs to get broken first. You do have an argument up to this trend line and that supply. And what's really nice about this also is that volume to pick up really heavily on this candle pretty much higher than all of these. So knowing that the market, knowing that it bounced pretty hard here on up volume and closed pretty much closed higher than it opened, it could indicate that there was some buying going on on this day in large mass. Looking at, there was a 70 million volume print that day. So it could be worth the watch. Looking at calls on Boyle. Next, going into DAL, since it does airlines. You can see we are pulling up into supply, rejected off supply. I really like this one to the downside. So I'll be looking at puts on this. You can see it may be a move down to this support. You know, it's about, you know, 37 bucks. It's also this previous resistance. So this previous resistance could act as a support once. I mean, you can see here, got over, broke out, came back down, retested, didn't make support on this level, on earnings. So pretty valid support, but you can see, I mean, it's starting to kind of top out a little bit here at supply. So I really like this to the downside. And like I said, I'm probably not going to be looking at swing trades this week. Usually when I'm showing these to you guys, I'm showing you that it has potential for a day trade and for a swing trade. But this week, with all the events going on and all the overnight risk, I really wouldn't swing trade past Wednesday this week. You know, maybe wait for the FOMC, wait for the earnings to come out, let it trade inform, and then you can enter some new swing trades. I didn't even alert any new swing trades inside the discord or anything. I stuck to all day trades and even my day trade alerts were kind of limited this week because I'm really just kind of waiting. So we'll have to see. Yeah, so DAL looks good here at supply. Oh, looks for good. Looks good for a move back down to the 37s. You can even be more conservative than that. If you're day trading, obviously it's not going to get down to 37 in a day. Very unlikely without a market moving event. Next, we're going into Exile Ease. This is Energy, pretty similar to the last one. It did react to the supplies. This is a rally based drop supply zone. Finally came up and tested it. CVX announced their share buyback. They had pretty good earnings and then it ended up selling off a day or two after. Probably just people de-risking energy because they're buying up tech and other beat down tech stocks to get caught up with the market. After such a crazy rally, I mean, to be honest, the market's just going nuts. You could even argue it feels like that 2020 to 2021 bounce just by the panic buying and people are just ready to get caught back up. There's such a shitty year last year. So yeah, so we're looking at Exile Ease here. You can see some de-risking in energy. So this is a relative weakness play, so relative strength and relative weakness. Obviously, when you have the the broad market up and something is down, that would be relative weakness. If you have something up while the broad market is down, that would be relative strength. So this would be a relative weakness play because the market was up pretty nice. You know, Spy closed green, Exile Ease down too. Relative, you know, relative weakness. This could be showing early rotation out of energy into tech names, which also validates our bear thesis. So even if it's just short terms, could give a nice little day trade or even a couple of day swing trade, you know, back down to supports. And your next support would be 87.79. This pivot right here or this Fibonacci level, the 87.35. If you see it bounced off the 61.8, that's also a strong support. And that just comes from this retracement diagram here. So it comes from this high down to the low. Those are the Fibonacci levels. And you can see how strong the 61.8 was. And that's why they called the golden ratio. You probably heard it in other, you know, in other communities or you probably heard it in our discord all about the Fibonacci golden ratio, that is the 61.8 level. And it is the most sought after Fibonacci ratio. So it's a little fun fact. So yeah, Boyle looking at calls, oversold technical rebounds to the upside. Hoping for that. DAL, we're looking for puts at supply, starting to top out a little bit. Aizly also looking at puts, topping out a supply, rally-based drop supply zone. Relative weakness compared to the market close on Friday. So that's our three setups, sticking to day trades this week. And more than likely won't be getting in any swing trades until after FOMC. And, you know, after Amazon and Apple released their earnings, so we'll have to see. And once I do, I will alert it and let you know what position I got into in the discord. So you might even hear about new positions next week on the next video, even if you're not in the discord. So just keep an eye out, you know, to the next one, too. You know, you might hear a little hint. I had a video, you know, a couple of weeks ago, I said that I was in spy puts. You could have acted on that. You know, we had a pretty brutal sell off like two days later after that. Made a nice 50 percent profit on the puts. And got right out and I rallied right after. So perfect timing is sometimes it's like that. Sometimes you get out right in time. So onto the indexes. This is the spy S&P 500. And you can see pretty much pulling right into supply, which I really don't like for long. So I'm not going to be looking at calls on spy for, you know, swing trade wise, because I have to see you get over the supply first, you know, go along the spy and feel confident about it day trade wise. I mean, it doesn't really matter. You know, if the camera really pivots are looking good in sure day, you can scalp calls off the bottom or, you know, you go away for a dip and scalp those. I mean, it's pretty much been by the dip mode all freaking week. So past two weeks, even almost three weeks, just been by the dip, by the dip. Minus these two days where, you know, we did catch the puts on. And God, because I mean, it just totally ripped right after and we would have gave up all the profits levels of focus this week. We got this major was that rally based drop supply. You can see one rejection to this would be the third rejection. If it does decide to come up, so really be careful here. Be careful with longs because you never know how it's going to react to supply. If you really wanted to wait, you wait for it to get over supply. That would be good, which also coincides with four 1049, which is this here. Same area, just a regular resistance. So supply, regular resistance, supply, candle, regular resistance. Another level of focus. You got this 40265, I feel like it'd be really important to stay over. It's this little breakout spot right here. You can see where I circled. You would want to, you know, make support here. If not, and I wanted to break down that it could flush back down to the 200 EMA, which puts you at, you know, 400 flat to, you know, upper 399s. If it decided to get under the 200 EMA and go back within the trend line, the longer term trend line that would put you at the 50 and that would put you at lower 390s. So it's important that that 40265 holds to not hit the lower, you know, the lower 400s and the upper 399s. And it's also important to hold the 200 EMA to not take you to the lower 390s. So those are your levels of focus, just that 200 and the 50. And this 40265, you definitely want it holding over. No position for me on this. You could maybe argue that you could, you know, take this little free space back up to supply if the bulls are on your side. If it decides to start selling a supply that gives you, you know, a really good argument to take puts a supply and you can start scalping puts off this area, just like the IWM, you know, that supply zone is, you know, rejected four or five, six times. And it gave great scalps, great, you know, a couple of day swing trades for, you know, people trying to make quick buck off the supply. So so one thing that's different about the spy cash session levels compared to the future is that this is giving you different candle data. So this does look like a confirmed one week breakout. You got the one week candle closing outside of the downtrend line. But then let's pull up the ES futures, where I might show you something just a little bit different. So we pull up the ES futures here. This is one trend line. I would be careful of you got test one, test two, test number three. You can see we did get a reaction as soon as it tapped this on Friday. I mean, just crazy selling pretty nice candle. It's about a half a percent sell off an hour and now starting to follow through on the futures overnight session here going into Monday. So that trend line worth watching. It's like as soon as one longer term trend line kind of becomes a little irrelevant. Something new pops up out of nowhere. And that's this right here. This comes from August and December. So those are your two points that leads to your third point acting as resistance. And this would be a confirmed downtrend line. If we keep seeing, you know, resistance and rejection here. So my original point comparing the spy here looks like a confirmed breakout. If we go to the ES, it's much tighter. You could even argue that this is not great confirmation yet. And we put on the same two points. So you got point one, point two, just like you saw me add point one, point two. And look at that. I mean, it's just it's not as confirmed as the spy. And that's because it's giving you different data on the candles. You have more you have more traded prices and more range on the futures because they're open 24 seven. So you may see something on the futures that you're not going to see on the spy. And that's kind of giving me a little bit of concern that maybe this downtrend line is really not out of the water yet on the longer term basis, because this is all the way from all time highs to current. And even with the short term, you saw what I had there. You go from August to December and look at that. You do you do have a third third trend line test rejection that's acting as clear resistance short term. So that could be another cause for concern that maybe this is just a suckers rally. So you have to be very nimble here because you really don't have the greatest confirmation. You have a huge event coming up. You have huge big tech earnings coming up. I mean, nothing here is screaming, you know, bye bye bye. Instantly, that's just my opinion. I could just be a skeptic. I'm even a skeptic in everything I enter. If I enter something, I'm thinking about the other side of it. How it could go because I know the market can humble me in two seconds. So you just have to stay subjective, be a skeptic. You know, don't be a sucker. So always just respect your opponent, right? If you're entering something, you know, respect the other side of it because you never know what's going to pop up. So yeah, that's the spy. You saw my outlook on the spy and also the ES and how they differ a little bit and how that could be giving a little bit more conflicting information. So just make sure you're careful on that. No position for me. Maybe wait for it to get up on the supply like we covered. If you don't know that supply was just, you know, right here. So I mean, it's right there. So I mean, that's it's scary because you don't want to enter calls here. At the same time, I mean, the VIX is so damn low that you might not even want to get puts yet. Even though the VIX low is giving you a discount for cheap puts, you know, it just may not be time yet. So maybe wait for the event to get over. Next, we're going into the QQQ. So this one's a little bit cleaner. You can see you got the one week candle breakout. Even if we went to the NASDAQ, much cleaner on the futures. You do have a confirmed one week candle breaking out of this downtrend line on the futures. So a little bit different than ES. This looks much better, to be honest. And that could be the reason why you can see tech rallying a little bit harder than the spy. Another cool thing about this is that it double bottomed off the 61.8 percent retracement, the global ratio, like I covered. So you can see this is from low to high. This is from 2020 lows when COVID bottomed. And then we have our all time high. And you can see, I mean, all fibs acted pretty nicely. You have supported one point. You got to bounce off 38.2 bounce off 50 and a little small bounce off 61.8 where this is, you know, starting to try to make a bottom or attempt to at least. But either way, NASDAQ is breaking out here. It looks pretty decent. And you do have that confirmation on the futures as well. One bad thing for the short term traders, and this is not considering the long term trend line break at all, you do have the short term resistance you have to get over. So you got 296.88 to worry about, which is my pretty much my main price target, I said, if, you know, if QQQ could break out, I said it could, you know, put us as high as 296.88. And that also coincides with the 200 EMA here now. So we'll need to see more here. You do have an argument for the bears that could see some resistance here. I mean, I personally, I don't want to open calls up here. I need to see more. I don't need to wait for the FOMC, you know, just to be safe. So if you really wanted, though, I mean, calls, you know, 60, 90 days out, that's not going to get affected by the, you know, by the event volatility as much as if you were to, you know, just trade like a weekly call or something and swing it overnight, which is not my recommendation at all. A week like this. Yeah, 296.88 man resistance. If it does reject, I could put you as low as this breakout point of 290 flat or 298.21, which is this little peak right here. And that's pretty much your chop range. You know, it would need to get under that 290 to go lower or needs to get over that 296.88 to go higher. Right now it is in the bull's favor. You have the breakout. You have a little VIX spy is kind of conflicting because it's got that downtrend line, but you saw the Nasdaq futures. It did look a little bit more favorable on the breakout. Let's even go back to the Nasdaq futures here. I want to see if we could find a similar resistance how we saw August to December, like we went over on the futures and see if there's a similar resistance there as on the futures that we're just looking at. So we got the August peak down to this December high. You can see it did break out. So it's not seeing resistance yet. Only seeing resistance at the 200 EMA, which makes total sense. And also, you know, similar to what we see on QQQ there at 296. At 296 is starting to see resistance at the CPI peak right here as well on the futures. Yeah, that's where that's where the spy and QQQ are differing. The Nasdaq futures are breaking out of the long term trend line and breaking out of the short term trend line. Yes. And looking a little bit more conflicting, seeing resistance at the short term line and also not getting that huge one week breakout candle that we saw on the Nasdaq. So just be careful with that first buy. Otherwise, QQQ looks decent. I mean, the only argument you have is that it needs to clear that resistance and also stay over 292. Next, we're going to IWM. So this one did indeed get oversupplied very briefly. You can see that the cup and handle or the inverse head and shoulders, whatever you want to call it, they're both bullish. The one thing I don't like about this is that it closed under the resistance. So it wasn't able to close over, which is really I mean, that's not confirming that you should go long yet, because usually on a cup and handle or inverse head and shoulders, you go long as soon as the neckline breaks. The neckline is obviously the resistance. So we need to see getting over 189.86. Once it gets over that and it's holding over really well, that's an easy long up to 193. So if you see that next week and it can run up into Wednesday in the FOMC meeting, that might give you a pretty decent trade from 189.86 up to 193s at this supply. And that's a drop base drop supply zone, which is a really nasty one, by the way. So that's as high as I can put you for that. Only if you can get over that resistance. If you start seeing selling cash open Monday and you have other indicators, rising dollar, high VIX, this is a really good spot to take puts because you are still within the supply. You closed under resistance and that would give you a move, you know, maybe back down to the 200 EMA, you know, something like because I mean, volatility is still pretty low. So can't really, you know, bet on a huge dip yet. Just do off the fact that, you know, the VIX is low. There's also the event coming up. So I mean, not a lot of people are just going to go crazy, de-risking yet. I don't think it, you know, we could just chop. So don't expect any huge moves up or down, to be honest. But at the same time, you know, this is giving you an opportunity in either direction. If it wants to get over 189.86 or if it wants to reject that area. So yeah, the overall picture on IWM, looking bullet, she got an inverse head and shoulders or a cup and handle, whatever you want to call it, breaking the neckline. Easy trade up to 193 at least. If it wants to stay under 189.86, you get a nice, you know, trade back down to the 200 EMA and just off the supply rejection for puts. Next, we're going into the VIX. Just a brutal sell off all week for the VIX, but it did hold our 18 flat, which is pretty much our main focus. I said, if you want to see a crazy, crazy rally, it would need to get under 18, obviously. And it wasn't really able to do that. The market still rallied pretty good. But I mean, it could have been better if the VIX did, you know, just straight up die and go under 18 and start filling down to the 16s, which I mean, could happen this week post, you know, FOMC. So we'll have to see. But either way, same levels as last week, holding 18s. And also, I mean, it literally just went back into the downtrend line that we covered as well. So nothing really changed here for the VIX. Pretty much the same thing needs to get under 18 to go higher for stocks. Bears, you definitely want to see it bottom here at 18 and get back over 20. Same thing. I mean, you bears need it over 20 and need to see more fear coming into the market before, you know, assuming that they're going to get a huge dip free space here. Still the same 18 under 18 would take you to 1634, which is this lower here. And then obviously the 18 just comes from this recent low here. And this is pretty much the lowest the VIX has been in over a year. So just option premiums are just crazy cheap right now, 30 days out. So the VIX just covers pretty much it's giving you a reading on implied volatility about 30 days out via SPX options, calls and puts. It's pretty much calculated from out of the money, SPX calls and puts, along with other complicated math equations. I'm sure that make up, you know, the VIX and how it's calculated. And we'll go into the data here. So this is the VIX 2022 to 2023 average close. I pretty much track every single close on the day for the last since 2022 started. So, you know, January 3rd, 2022 up to now, that's giving us a reading of 2532. So that's our average at the moment, still way below the median here. And it's going to have a mean regression. So volatility is going to come back and test this eventually. Personally, I feel like it could be through just off the fact that, you know, we've been hanging below these averages for a good little minute now. And it's extremely cheap to hedge right now. We are just, you know, just coming off flows and technically, we're, you know, we could still be in a bear market overall. So you just have to be really careful with that. Money managers, Wall Street, they're going to want to hedge those gains pretty soon here. And we might start seeing flows of options coming massively and to put premiums. So just keep an eye on that. And I really do expect this median price target to hit again soon, which it did. I mean, the 2022 multiple times it bounced off lows, hit the median. It rejected off highs, hit the median. It always comes back to the median. There's always a mean regression. And even if you don't use the 2022 to 2023 average close or really any average close, you can use your regular moving averages. So you get your 50 and 200 here. Those work as well. So 50 is obviously going to be your more medium term. And then the 200 is going to be more of like a long term average. Next, Ramona to the DXY, which is basically unchanged from what we covered. Still holding that one to 129, you know, that base. So the same thing as last week, it needs to get over that. It needs to get over that 2020 COVID peak with the monthly candle clothes, which I mean, at this rate, I highly doubt it's going to happen. I mean, to me, I mean, this could be pretty bullish for stocks, assuming that it doesn't want to hold this base, the short term base. This COVID peak, though, if it's staying under that, you know, pretty well, I mean, both have a pretty good case that the dollars dying. That could be good. But either way, still holding that one to one 29 base, you know, if you're bullish on stocks, you need it to get under that one to one 29 or just needed to keep chopping like it has been. Even if the dollars is chilling out, that's good as well. It doesn't have to just straight up die, you know, to see stocks rally. And it also doesn't have to, you know, just straight shoot up, you know, to see stocks get a pullback. But obviously, you know, the currency volatility is going to play a big role in, you know, how equities move. So we do want to see it do something here. I personally do at least. So this one to one 29 base, if you're bearish on stocks, you need it to hold here, reclaim over the 2020 COVID peak that we've been covering. Really want to see it get back over 103s. Once it gets over 103s and, you know, you start seeing violent pops on it, that could be a good hint of volatility coming back. But otherwise unchanged from last week, I really don't see anything new here. I know for a fact on the FOMC, it's that's going to move the dollar crazy. It's going to move the dollar bonds, everything. So make sure you trade safe, especially don't be swinging those short term contracts and gambling and stuff. Unless you're keeping your size down, it's just it's not worth it. When we have this huge event coming up, you know, save your energy, save your capital, you know, it could be worth it, especially if you wait, you know, for the news to come out, the event to get out of the way, let a little trend established so you say, you know, you can feel confident about what you're getting into and hold it for multiple days. But otherwise, maybe you just stick to day trades, keep your risk low and especially pay attention and don't get caught in traps. So yeah, that's our video today. I love you guys. Make sure you like, comment and subscribe to XTrade's YouTube channel. I'm going to get this chopped up, edited, all that good stuff. Make sure you go to the options watch list channel. I do have a written report, which is just a quick summary of what we went over for the three setups or the usually we go over five setups this week, we're only going over three, but I do cover that in a written weekly report. If you just want to quick read and you don't have time to watch the videos all the time, you can just go there and see if I'm watching calls or puts, maybe I'll throw in a price target or something like that. But I do just put these out so you guys can, you know, pick which one looks best to you, may or may not take that risk. It's okay. It's not like a suggestion or me trying to get you to FOMO and anything. It's really just an idea, maybe help step your game up a little bit. So yeah, I love you guys. Make sure you turn into the next one and peace out.