 Hi and welcome to this week's supply and demand forex technical and fundamental Analysis my name is Leon Roe and I'm a currency trader and trading coach at trading 180 calm and if you're new welcome if you're Returning welcome back and I really do hope that you find every week my supply and demand and fundamental analysis Useful in your trading. I've been getting a lot of positive messages Over the past few weeks actually past few months And I thank you for all of them. Please don't forget to like subscribe and share if you find, you know the content you know valuable as well and Yeah, let's basically get into it and we start off as we always do on the fundamentals and sentiment analysis so in the week ahead what we've got is Final estimates of US second quarter GDP growth and that will definitely be watched Alongside personal income and out lays PCE price index, which is I think the feds federal reserves Preferred measure of inflation so that would be Important and why is that important because then it basically sets to kind of monetary policy tone as we know Last week the Federal Reserve ended up cutting rates. This is from a Reuters article and Fed cut rates, but signals holding pattern for now So they weren't too dovish You know in there in their in their announcement Hence the reason why I had an email from somebody asking me to explain why a cut didn't have a negative effect on the the dollar and for several reasons, but one of the reasons is Sometimes not the cut itself, you know, because that will probably already be factored in in the By the room or sell the fact kind of thing, but also it depends on the actual statement and Future guidance on how many cuts are potentially coming in the future Yeah, so if they started announcing, you know more than expected that would be quite dovish and but if they're quite tight-lipped on You know future cuts or if they're going to be any more cuts at all then that would be considered quite hawkish and signals holding pattern for now holding meaning that they You know, they're not talking about cutting for now. So Decent our course you can look it up or what I'll do is all if I remember after this video to put link in the description box below So you can have a read so Well, also we got this week, so we've got durable goods orders and pending home Sales elsewhere important releases include UK CBI factory orders Eurozone business survey and monetary indicators, Germany consumer morale You know the eurozone is is is suffering a bit at the moment economically and especially Germany being Europe's powerhouse isn't doing it too well at all and When it comes to the eurozone inflation, you know confirmed at low of 1% in August hence the The the stimulus basically that they introduced Mario Draghi introduced to basically Try to cheapen the currency You know to stimulate inflation if you know how a weak currency the effect of inflation or we currency has on on the inflation, right? So they need their 2% target and So the European Central Bank has to kind of cheapen their currency as they're out of Interest rate cut bullets because they don't have any interest rates. They are actually at zero I guess they could you know Go into negative interest rates, but they decided to add stimulus instead So the euro economy not doing very well at all Germany consumer out and China industrial profits policy decisions in the Philippines New Zealand Yeah, that's gonna be important as well and Thailand will also be in a spotlight as well as flash PMI surveys for the US Eurozone Japan and Australia and just catching up on a bit of news as well a bit more pound rally fizzles as Ireland put stamper on brakes It hopes if you are trading the British pound It's gonna be very volatile as we move closer to the October 31st Deadline and that is due to you know where the decision has to be made or whether You know the UK are going to leave with a deal or no deal breaks it Yeah, so I've been saying this to you know the guys in the telegram group and I said it's um, you know Quite a few weeks ago, and I was saying that if the pound will rally based off of A no deal being taken off the table basically if the scenario looks like there's more likely to be a deal on the table The pound will rally if there's no deal looking like it's gonna be you know the likely outcome Then the pound is going to drop So what you'll what you saw this week is a pound rally because I think it was what's his name Jean-Claude Juncker I think that's his name Came out and said yeah, you go currency retreats from two month high fuel by EU junkers Comments and saying that a deal they want to do a deal so They're on negotiations and Sterling may rise 5% if deal clinched. Yes is being why melon Melons dark right so keep that in mind again. I'll put this in the description box below But you I think you get two or three limited articles if you're not a Bloomberg subscriber Also quickly just to cover Bank of Japan Basically they had their rate Announcement as well and they keep The policy steady but signals a chance of easing in October, right? So potential easing coming in October and easing Basically stimulus means that they want to weaken their currency, right? and the Bank of Japan is is I think they're quite keen on doing that the more expensive the Japanese yen gets right so Again, just keep that in mind. They are trying to reach the inflation targets, but The more expensive the Bank of Japan Or the yen gets the further away they're getting from their 2% inflation target Anyways, let's go into the technicals because I know that's what you guys are here for as well so starting off as we always do on the Dow Jones dollar index and What we have just move us up a little bit, right? Is last week? We had price come down into here And I was actually expecting price to not really hold at this demand So I mean simply because there was an interest rate cut But if we go forward a little bit over the past five days the dollar index Which is a measure of dollar strength against some of the major currencies like the pound the euro and the yen Kind of held up as Guess the the tone of the Federal Reserve was actually not as dovish as the market expected So with that being said moving to the actual chart Nothing really has changed On this on the dollar index chart. I do expect though the dollar At some point potentially again, we can go either way But maybe some sort of weakness and if it does weaken down into this Demand zone this fresher area of demand then I'll be a buyer at the moment the dollar is, you know, the strongest the dog with the least fleas its user I guess a metaphor and You know, it could obviously, you know, go to outside. I'm a buyer of the dollar I have been for quite a number of years so Fall in the dollar index just allows, you know me to buy the dollar for a bit cheaper and an increase in the dollar, you know Basically just allows me to get basically get info on pullbacks. If you are looking to sell the dollar, right? I would also say that this area is decent, especially the higher area here What I'm gonna do is I'm gonna move this Supply zone right there. In fact change that as you've made lower highs lower lows So what you want to wait for is price to come up to this supply zone before getting short one thing to also Know is that the more times the level is touched the weaker it becomes So I think if prices come up and then kind of come back down to this demand zone There could be some negative sentiment around the the dollar And then you get obviously a break of that level or we could just basically shoot through that level Again, my bias is to the upside so evil way I've got a plan for every eventuality and what you want to do is look for bullish price action on the Dow Jones dollar index And then trade the you know, any of the dollar pairs So moving on to the dollar yen and the dollar yen last week If we can load some bars Nearly came up to this supply zone Which would have been a decent short if you were looking to short the dollar But at the moment we're pretty much in a bit of no man's land a little bit of supply coming into the market and so let's go to the chart and What we have now is A bit of a supply zone here. I'm not gonna put it on on this chart Even though there is supply here. Actually, in fact, I will But just understand that even though there is supply here. It's not a strong level of supply yet You really want to see price Kind of make some new, you know Break towards a new low beyond that swing before it's considered a strong level of supply So just keep that in mind if prices come back to this level and understand that there's You know, you want to see a strong supply The level above is probably going to be the preferred area to look for any kind of short trades If you want to buy the Japanese yen and think the Japanese yen is a bargain If you are looking to buy the dollar, then you're looking for a bit of a pullback into this first zone And if you get, you know, some sort of price action price reaction around here And decent entry then that would be your first zone If not, then second zone is going to be down here. Also, keep in mind that the yen Strengthens in a risk-off environment. So if Donald Trump starts to come out and You know reignite the trade war Fight that he's having with China at the moment, then you could see, you know A bit of a dollar set off as he is trying to weaken the dollar And I don't really want to get into the reasons why kind of beyond the scope of this video, but He does want a weaker dollar right in his trade war to help him and aid him in his You know is making the US globally competitive I'll put it that way So next on the list is dollar Swiss and dollar Swiss last week zoom in a little bit They come up further up into this higher supply zone and then a bit of a sell-off last week The Swiss National Bank also came out and didn't actually increase any kind of stimulus They kind of held fire on Any any QE or monetary easing And I think this is probably just some profit-taking going on I think I was maybe around about I think maybe about 10 pips away from my actual profit target. I've been Long from here from down here. I think the 0.974 level profit target is right just before that one round number So let's see our trail might stop up anyway, so I can't lose from here. But anyways Waiting for you know if you're looking to for a sell then pretty much now is the opportunity and let's go to the charts So now is gonna be a bit of an opportunity potentially on a lower time frame to look for some shorts Right here If you are looking for any kind of long trades Then you are looking at a probably better level would be down until it's 98 to number before 0.982 number before getting Long as you've got a confluence of you know some support and resistance in that in those areas of demand as these whole you know Higher highs higher lows create demand zones. Yeah, because this is an absolute bargain proven by price action, etc Yeah Had that someone say something made it make a comment like that and supply and demand you can't use them for you can't use this technique for in a strategy for Trending markets only ranging markets, which is which is absolutely nonsense. But anyways Yeah, so basically wait for a pullback Into this area here if you want to be a buyer of the dollar you think the dollars are bogging here And if the Swiss franc is a bargain at this moment then waiting for pullbacks into the supply zone and possibly up into that higher level that one parity round number Right there the next on the list is dollar CAD and Again last week we had Price not really move anywhere to be fair didn't come up into this This area of supply We just kind of went sideways. So again, I don't think the analysis has really changed much on the dollar CAD It's literally if you want to get short you'd have to wait for price action to come up into the highs Before looking at short trade if you're looking at any kind of long trades Although technically we do have Demand zone there we do Because prices have made a higher high I would probably if I was going to trade that it would have to be At the absolute low of that demand zone. So around that one point three two five One point three two one or two oh level pretty say around there before looking at getting Long so on a lower time frame if you're trading at the one hourly It'd be basically back down into this area where you've got resistance resistance bit of support there Etc. That would be the level if I was looking to trade and looking to buy the dollar against the Canadian dollar and then your next level is going to be a bit further down at these lows Moving on to the New Zealand dollar and New Zealand dollar Again last week. I was actually expecting I took a trade here on a lower time frame and took profit pretty much around here and in the lead up to the the announcement of Of a potential interest rate cut. I've kind of expected the dollar to kind of weaken In this area and probably maybe you know go up a bit further where I was looking to probably getting short again But you know things happen, you know, I'm not in the business of you know predicting price I just look at what price does and then You know take the trades and manage my risk But as we've seen the New Zealand dollar has been fairly weak fairly fairly weak Actually very weak this week and I think it's probably again another by the room is still the fact type situation where They've got an announcement this week. I think it's on GDP and or a statement and I think that that the New Zealand dollar is weakening for You know potential buy, but I was expecting prices to you know come up higher so I could actually Get short again the prices have gone on their way So if we're looking at a chart What we can do is to need that We do have a supply zone right there As prices have made lower highs lower lows that green demand zone right there is actually from a 2015 zone So I'm not too sure how you know significant that is gonna be but it's pretty gonna be traders looking to trade, you know level that has been touched in the past, but Who knows But if you do want to get long What I would say is actually my friend. Let me go to Forex factory and see what what is that is Going on. That's it. So oh is the official cash rate So they're expected to hold rates and then the statement afterwards. I think that's gonna be more significant in the fact that if the RBNZ governor comes out and is very dovish then you could see the New Zealand Dollar start to sell off right, but if he comes in and says well where they can just still hold rates blah blah blah Whatever then they're less dovish or a bit more hawkish in their assessment then you could see the New Zealand dollar rally But your first area to get short would be obviously here and second area would be somewhere up at the highs So moving on to the pound dollar and a pound dollar this week Again pound rallying on sentiment really no deal Or deal Brexit sentiment And comments from the EU saying that they would like to do a deal potentially As had did have the pound rally this week and they even from from last week as well. So We are we did rally into the supply zone and now we're potentially selling off and going back to that Bloomberg article Which is Ireland puts a dampener on Brexit hopes, right? So Basically the currency halted its two weeks gain after Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney said the mood music has improved yet There is still quite a wide gap between the UK and the European Union. Yeah, so Ireland are Major player in the Brexit agreements due to the backstop having to be basically sorted out and agreed so If that isn't, you know sorted out then I don't think a deal can be done so You know when it comes to you know the pound, you know getting getting yourself sorted again This is going to be very sentiment driven, you know one one comment from you know a Politician, you know could send this flying another you know Another comment could send this, you know, you know going to the lows if anyone says that they can predict price Right now is talking nonsense Because again, it's all about, you know sentiment. It's not based on any kind of fundamentals at the moment, right? It's literally just you know who says Things that the markets like or don't like so as we come up into here My advice if you are trading the pound is probably to the usual risk as well. I wouldn't put on any kind of normal risk You know if you trade 1% maybe put on half a percent or quarter percent per trade because again When it comes to sentiment a lot of the the normal Or the normalities of trading where you think, you know, you get a certain entry, you know really may not apply You know, I mean so Let's see what happens. Anyway, we're up into this supply zone Putting a decent pin bar on a lower or not higher time frame So this could be the start of you know, maybe some profit-taking from anyone who got long Down here, maybe he's looking to take some profit at the moment We haven't had any kind of major pullback as well. So into this level. So it could be a decent pullback Just, you know, we could take advantage of a pullback If you are looking to buy the British pound Then you would be looking at this first pretty first level here to look for Some long trades if you are, you know, trading higher highs higher lows waiting for a pullback and then Into that demand zone before looking at getting long Next on the list is Euro dollar and the Euro dollar is From last week, there was a nice stop-hunt set up around here and Bar's prices have sold off into I Guess the Fed Announcing a great cut prices have done pretty much the opposite, you know To what the European Central Bank wanted which was a weaker euro, but I think this is just You know the market looking for liquidity before Continuing further lower and I think it's going to draw a lot of traders into the upside prices may continue going higher And if it does go higher, I'll be looking for Shorts if it doesn't go higher doesn't matter. I'm still getting short on, you know pullbacks if I'm looking to buy the Dollar over the euro at the moment. There's nothing positive coming out of Europe economically low inflation, you know Low consumer confidence, etc. Etc. So Not great at the moment So let's look at maybe looking to update the charts And at the moment, I think it's really anything to update That in fact, I'm gonna try to do all this is an outside candle so this is it was putting more hidden demand keep it there and Yeah, we're pretty much between that range in that range. So if you're looking for buy trades Prices, you know come down into this zone here. You're looking for a buy If they you know got a bit higher Fresher areas of supply are better. So anywhere around here preferably around this one Point one one two level up to the one point one one six level would be a decent short So that's pretty much it Moving on to the euro yen Euro yen last week. I like this technically, but Just couldn't bring myself to buy the Japanese yen Over the euro so but I think what happened was it did end up reversing so anyone did get short in that Well done to you So yeah, we've got a situation where now we're back down into a level of demand So if you want to be a buyer of the euro Against the yen and you think the euro at this exchange rate against the yen is a bargain or there are there abouts Pretty much now is the time to look for some long trades either there or you know further down into that zone There and then probably is some decent Support and resistance in there Move that up a bit more. Yeah, it's something like that support support support support a bit of resistance bit support there So Decent for a you know long trade at these areas if you get them, you know, you're right kind of price action If you're looking for a sell trade Technically now this has created a supply zone So let me just move this Down to here So there's your supply zone, but just bear in mind that you know, it's an area that has been touched once twice You know from the consider that twice So if it comes up again, just be you know weary that this is a weaker area of supply base level of past You know that level being touched in exchange it being touched several times in the past So Going on to the Aussie dollar and the Aussie dollar at the moment There was a bit of a demand zone Problem is when you're buying demand at the highs it literally you are buying at the highest So you think about where the smart money made their money bought here You know, you don't want to be the person buying eyes Even though this is a demand zone just be aware that you know have some spatial awareness or where you are potentially buying so Prices this week, even though there was a demand zone bit of demand there prices pretty much fall in the way dollar getting stronger The Aussie dollar getting weaker. So looking at the Aussie dollar What we can do is delete this And create some supply So From a supply zone perspective That's decent. You want to wait for his price to come back up to here before looking at short trades Or if you are looking to buy the Australian dollar, then you're looking at Level here again, just to let you know that this level has been touched once twice So a third time isn't necessarily the the greatest You know level to look for a buy trade But you never know you could see some bullish price action And also there could be some news sentiment that does drive the Australian dollar You know longer and then this could be some negative sentiment that you know that weakens the US dollar So at the moment, I think we're probably in this price range between the 0.667 Level and then the 0.689 or six zero point six nine round number. So again looking for looking to Buy the US dollar. This is going to be the first area to look for short trades And finally we have the Australian dollar US. I'm sorry Australian dollar Japanese yen. So Here we are and We have come back down just push through that demand zone There was a little bit hidden demand there did react a little bit But I think the the Australian dollar got weaker towards the the end of the week potential profit-taking Or maybe just a shift in in sentiment So the Aussie dollar I'm going to delete this demand zone right here There is some supply Right there. So again Pretty similar to the Aussie dollar waiting for Move back up here if you want to be a buyer of the Japanese yen You think the Japanese yen is an absolute bargain at this price at the moment buyers of the Japanese yen have pushed prices You know in their favor. So pullback may prove that again If you want to be a buyer of the Australian dollar at the moment The only really way to do that is from a supply and demand perspective is looking for a move all the way down here And then looking for any kind of buyer trades at the moment. So those are your options and We come to the end of The analysis. Hope you enjoyed it again. Don't forget to like subscribe share with your colleagues Comment below and I'll try and get back to you As soon as possible So, yeah, take care and have a great trading week