 Welcome, traders, to this week's live market and trade analysis session with me, Patrick Runley. Before I begin, if you can hear me, and you can see the Tickman welcome screen, just type a Y in the chat box, so I know that we are good to go. Testing audio one, two, three, okay, good stuff, thanks. Right, so before we get started, I always want to adhere to the risk disclaimer and the most important aspect of it for today's purposes are the opinions and views expressed by me today, are solely mine and they're not indicative of or representative of Tickman UK or Tickman Europe Limited. Before I get going, also just note that if you do have any questions with respect to any of the charts that we're going to review today, if you could make a note of them and at the end, I'll open up a Q&A session, brief Q&A, equally if there's a chart I don't review during this session and you'd like me to take a look at it and you can just drop that into the chat box and I'll do so at the end. So for those of you who are here for the first time today, my name is Patrick Runley. After I graduated from King's College London, I joined the City PLC Consulting firm. I left with some colleagues and went on to successfully co-found and exit a consulting startup which was focused on a C-suite executive search for tech startups. Having a front row seat to the dot-com bubble, witnessing people make and lose a fortune in the markets quite literally overnight at times, I decided to explore my curiosity for the markets with some capital to play with and some time in my hands. I started day trading the S&P 500 or more appropriately day gambling. After some early beginner's luck, I racked up some pretty solid gains. However, as is often the case, my beginner's luck ran out as the market phase changed. I began to average down into positions, eventually giving back all my gains and ultimately experiencing a six-figure hit on my personal capital to say that was a gut-wrenching and sobering experiences and understatement. I really had to stand back and figure out if it was feasible for me to make a living for the markets. So I decided to get serious about trading and sought out a mentor with an excellent trading track record. Working with my mentor for 18 months to two years, this was a period during which I up not just my technical game in terms of developing strategies that crucially suit my personality, which I researched, developed extensively, back and forward tested. It was a period also during which I upped my, I guess my mental game. And probably most importantly, I made the watershed shift from being a highly goal-oriented individual focused on financial gains to becoming purely process-oriented. So what does that mean? Well, it means I had to stop focusing on what I could make from the markets and start focusing solely on managing my mindset to allow me to consistently execute my trading strategy, oftentimes in the face of negative feedback from the markets in the form of losing trades. But once you become process-oriented and you have a professional trading mindset and you understand and embrace the true nature of trading, being a numbers game in which you are simply playing the probabilities, you lose the emotional investment and the hellish emotional roller coaster of living and dying by the outcomes of individual trades. So I'm no longer concerned with the outcome of individual trades or even a small string of trading. My focus is on the next 100 trades because I know if I focus on excellence and execution, my edge will demonstrate itself over an extended series of outcomes. My multi-strategy approach has delivered profitable annual returns since 2008. From 2013, I also have been managing investor capital through a managed account service, delivering annual positive returns. I'm currently responsible for managing a multi-million dollar portfolio. Since 2010, I've also mentioned hundreds of private traders of all experienced levels, from complete novices to former CME floor traders in developing the technical and mental skills to re-consistent returns from the markets. In addition to my fund management and mentoring, I'm also a resident market expert exclusively providing market and trade analysis to Tickwell. My other passion project, I guess, is the leading trade education for a premier trading education brand called FXQueerSwap.com. We offer development and funding to retail trading talent. At FX QueerSwap, we don't just develop retail traders, market and trading strategy knowledge, we work on mindset development through a structured program that culminates in managing firms' capital at zero personal financial risk on a profit share basis. If you're interested in learning more about FXQueerSwap, there's a number here for the trade desk in London, or you can drop them an email and they'll come back to you with details about FXQueerSwap. Okay, so that gives you a flavour of where I'm coming from. Let's jump into the charts. Got some interesting setups to look at this week. Do something slightly different as well. We're using the four-hour time frame, and I've stripped the charts back. Sometimes, especially if traders are struggling, it's useful to go right back to the basics. So that's what we're going to do this week. I'm just going to run through some of the basic patterns that I see developing that offer opportunity. I'll overlay some more details and you can see the thought process, and I'll introduce you to this four-hour entry strategy using the VWAP and the side indicator as well as an additional confirmation to pull the trigger on the trade. So we're going to start here with the equal-weighted dollar index. So this is the dollar versus four currencies, the euro, sterling, yen, and the Aussie. And that's on an equal-weighted basis. So they all have equal weighting as opposed to the difference in the broader dollar index against six currencies. Some of the major currencies aren't actually included in that basket. And so it's useful to take a look at this dollar index. What you're seeing with the candles here in terms of the coloring, you'll know that some of these are normal charts will be red but they're green, and some of them are red when they should be green. They're basically, they'll be green candles when prices trading above the five-period volume-weighted average price on the daily timeframe. So they'll only be green if price is trading above that average on the daily timeframe. Obviously, we're on the four-hour timeframe. So that's just to clarify while you're seeing some different colored candles here to what you normally expect. This is just to give us an idea of the higher timeframe trend, which is the daily timeframe, and how we can align with that using these four-hour candles to try and improve our risk reward in terms of entering positions. So what we've got here is the dollar index. We had a low put in at the back end of February. And then we advanced in a impulsive fashion to the upside. And so what that sets up then, normally what you'd be looking for would be a corrected move. And I use this tool, trend-based trend tool. So what you'd anticipate is an equal legs corrected move. So we had the initial move off the lows. And we can see here, let's just bring this up there, or we would have anticipated if we were in a normal corrected pattern would be that we would make a low, a reaction low, a reaction high, and then we'd look for an equal legs subjected to the downside. These measurements here are basically giving you the 100% extension of this swing here as identified as a downside target. So that's 100%. This is the 161 extension. So if price exceeds the 161 extension, that often is a warning or a potential flag that the trend is actually changing. So we had this advance, obviously we have been in a downdraft in terms of the dollar index. And we've also got the equal legs measure here off that low, which we traded into. And we then did another correction. And what we would have anticipated was we would have got a double corrected pattern play out, but we didn't get that. And we've rolled over here and we've exceeded the 161 extension to the downside. And we're now in what is a clearly defined trend channel. And so what we're looking for is two pieces of information we're going to get here from the channel. If we hold the channel, we know that this new move to the downside has got momentum and we'd be looking for short positions. To enter short positions, what you'd be looking for using this strategy would be the next red candle that closes and the next time in unison with that, we get a red close on the psych indicator. So for example, if this was the price pattern that we were looking at, obviously this has already happened, but I'm just showing you for demonstration purposes, once you get this red, you get a red candle here and you get the red close on the psych indicator, that is what you would use as your entry candle. So what we're basically saying is the daily time frame has now shift, the higher time frame has now shifted short and the momentum on this chart is also moving to the downside. So you're looking for that alignment to put the position on. So what we'll be watching for now with the dollar index here is, do we get a reversal from the trend line resistance and at that point, do we get a cross below the zero line here on the psych indicator? So we get a red candle and a red flip on the psych indicator, which then would be a high probability confluence that we are starting another leg to the downside in terms of the dollar index. Conversely here now, if we hold these current loads, as we are trading into, as you can see, just eyeballing the chart here, an area of prior support and we are testing that, we have found buyers, we did get a reversal, strong reversal and we've got the psych indicator confirming that. Conversely now, if we can break the channel resistance, what we watch for in terms of a trading opportunity or an opportunity to trade the dollar to the long side would be a reversal. So let's say we trade up into this zone, we get a pullback to retest the broken trend channel from above. And then what we get is the next reversal to the upside, where we have the confluence again. So we'd be moving from the on the pullback, we'd anticipate that the candles turn to red, psych indicator is down below the zero line, so also red, so confirming the pullback. Once we get that test of the trend line from above, then what we'd be looking for is the green candle, a reaction from the trend line where we get green candles and we get the site back above the zero line and that would suggest we could see another leg to the upside in terms of the dollar. Have I explained that clearly? Does that make sense in terms of the combination here of the candlestick, coloring and the and the site indicator to confirm an entry opportunity? I just want to make sure that's, I haven't gone through that too quickly. You can get this session is recorded so you can have an opportunity to to watch it back. So with respect to the dollar index at the moment, the equal ways of dollar index, we're watching very closely what price does now at this trend line. Yesterday we had CPI days coming out and as I'm sure many of you are aware it was a big surprise to the upside and that's what's seen this support in terms of the dollar as the market now believes that they're the Fed are under pressure and that they should be thinking about or at least intimately implying to the market that there is tapering is coming. Obviously Jerome Pavle has been adamant that isn't the case but we'll wait and see because the market is clearly now forcing that that notion. So if we do get the break watch for the next rotation back into back from red to green with the green side there's an opportunity on the upside but equally if we hold this trend line resistance then we'd be watching from the first red candle to close with the site back below the zero line as an opportunity to get in on the short side and what you'd be looking for is ideally you'd be targeting certainly a retest of the trend line from from above here as projected to the downside and more likely that we would take out the lows in terms of the dollar index. So a clear reflection point here with the dollar if we look at the euro we've got a similar story developing there the euro had had a nice nice advanced an impulsive advance off the lows we did we had a corrective move here into trend line support and you can see that the this system would have given you a long signal here through one twenty fifty and and you would have taken you would have basically if you waited for the system to reverse you would have basically been out at scratch on that trade but what we're looking for now is this trend line support test here so if you're watching this this area of support we can see we're reversing here and on normal candlestick chart the base this candle would be green but we're waiting for the we'd be waiting for the site to go back through the zero line and for a green candle to close before getting in on the long side now if the euro is going to it's going to hold this trend line support and the next objective in terms of the upside will be a test of this ascending trend line resistance which comes back in currently around one twenty two sixty eight so but equally if we break this trend line support and similar to the dollar index idea what you'd be watching for is a retest let's say we get into this area and then the retest of the trend channel from below and then you wait for that next red candle and the site to go red to play for a deeper corrective pattern in terms of the euro to the downside sterling sterling came into its trend channel resistance it has an equal leg objective which is completed so versus this move here off the lows into that reaction high then have a three way corrective pattern we've now done a potential double correction here into this trend line resistance because we're still whole we still haven't taken out these prior highs here this prior cycle high so this can just be the start of a more complex corrective pattern in terms of sterling and we've come into the spring in this treatment tool so at the seventy eight point six percent retracement and we have this equal legs objective and we're seeing some sell side pressure come in here so if we can follow this this strategy gives the signal on this candle as a short and what you'd be looking at for a target will be this ascending trend line support down to thirty eight ninety six and see how the see how price responds when we get down there dollar yen held held the trend line support area and so now versus this swing low here in the dollar yen and you can see the strategy with triggers long here through that one oh eight ninety that site green you've got green green candle combination the equity the objective of this trade will actually be the equal legs so we're looking in terms of this leg here overlaid here so you've got a target now in terms of the dollar yen at one ten fifty four and equally if we do if we get a pullback here just just for the purposes of the strategy if you get a pullback here in and you get a red couple of red candles here get the site back down below the zero lines so it goes red the next green rotation you get as long as we're trading above this one oh eight thirty three level will be an opportunity to either initiate you long so add to long positions for that one ten fifty four targets own obviously has taken it well it's in the process potentially here taking out its trend line support and we could have on the higher time frame sorry on the higher scale here we could have big head and shoulder scenario developing in the Aussie so what we look for here now in terms of the Aussie try if we are going to break down and get to see we did get we have had one close through that trend line to close this would be a great confirmation if we do get a break down there then again what we're watching for will be the next rotation back into green ideally we get a retest of this trend channel from below wait for the next red rotation and then you get in on the short side and certainly you can be thinking about a neckline test here of what will be that big head and shoulder scenario equally we can then look at measuring bigger corrected pattern which would have a downside target at seventy four seventy and again once we get there if buyers don't show up then what you can think about is the head and shoulders target so you'd have a head and shoulder target down to seventy two forty so this is a very interesting point we're at with the Australian dollar here and given in mind where the dollar index sits at the moment so we want to watch to see if we break down here or do we get a snap back now and a close back into the trend channel and we get cyclic green then that would also that equally would give us an opportunity on the long side to again target the top side of the of the channel there so inflection point really for a lot of these dollar majors at the moment Kiwi so similar story here testing the trend channel trend line support for the fourth time the third test is normally the high probability scenario the fourth time tends to see these things break but we'll see we've had one looking for a second close really through this trend line support and again in terms of thinking about getting into this trade now you'd be looking for that next rotation from red sorry from green sorry from red to green back to red and ideally like I say these high probability scenarios that you retest the trend channel from below and then you can think about the extension to the downside and again with this one very simple what we're looking for is an equal legs objective which would put us down into 67 83 for out for the Kiwi there but likewise with the with the Aussie a snapback here and a green close back through into the trend channel and a green rotation here in terms of the psych indicator then you can be thinking about upside opportunities in terms of Kiwi Looney has come into a big equal legs objective here let me just show you where this is measured from so from from this high so this swing into this swing here is an equal legs objective we hit it pretty much to the tick yesterday one 2050 we've seen a nice bounce here we've got a green candle piercing the trend line trend line resistance and we've got that green turn inside so that's a signal there using this strategy and what you'd be looking for now would be a three wave corrected pattern to develop it's difficult to measure at the moment what you can do quite easily to give you some senses in terms of where we could find resistance is overlaying that last big swing here off this peak and that was just 122 28 could be a resistance zone so you would pay attention to to how prices respond there equally if we get a red close here back in to the trend line then and this would look like a false break and we could have another leg setting up to the downside dollar swiss coming back into its trend line resistance and again starting to to look like it's under pressure here so what we'd be looking for and this obviously fits in with the euro and the and the dollar index is a red rotation here so next red candle on a red close here through with the site back through the zero line would be would be suggesting downside and we could certainly be thinking about a retest of the lows here well initially what you're looking at is the trend channel so you anticipate a move down into the trend channel support maybe then a rotation and then another leg to the downside to actually get a retest of the lows there in terms of the swiss equally if we can break to the top side here get through this trend trend channel resistance and the next rotation from green to red back to green would would give you an opportunity on the long side and suggest that we could see some upside but at the moment without breaking these trend channels meaningfully it looks like that we could see another leg of downside. Sterling yen nothing to nothing to do there at the moment we'd be looking I'm not what would I be paying attention to in the sterling yen is a test of this trend line so what what I wanted what I anticipate is we see some something like this and get into this 155 area and then I'll be paying close attention to the next downside rotation as an opportunity on the short side in terms of sterling yen similar type of scenario in terms of the euro yen it's getting even more squeezed here in this this ascending wedge pattern so what I've watched for is a break of the trend line support with a red candle and a red close in terms of psych as an opportunity on the short side notice here as well we've got plenty of divergence developing now so that also is a great confirmation tool of looking for these these corrected moves to to play out. Aussie yen similar story here we've taken out the trend line support and we've got that we've got confirmation the red candles we've got red sites so watch for potential here for the Aussie yen to roll over especially we're going to look at a minute in some of these equity indexes and see where we are from a risk perspective cad yen is another one that's getting really tight now in in its in its pattern so what we're looking for is a break of the trend line support we've got again plenty diverge triple divergence here so we look we've got the cab making one peak two peaks three peaks and we've got triple divergence here in terms of the potential for a reversal to play out here so what we're watching forward is a break of the trend line red candle close site back below the zero line and that would be an opportunity on the short side and certainly in terms of targets initially thinking about where we could rotate so if we bring in a fifth tool thinking about here first port of call be the 23 23.6 retracement that brings back down into 89 39 but more often than not we get about 38.2 percent retracement 88 64 the maybe two downside objectives to pay attention to let's take a look at these equity indexes so the s and p if we zoom right out here and i'll show you what we're looking at this is an internal trend line that's being respected and we're testing it here now and we are finding some support initial support anyway and so if we are going to going to see a rotation here then what we'd be looking for is obviously site back through the zero line green candle and then the initial target on this would be the halfway back of this leg because this leg at the moment looks impulsive so we could see move back into the 41 41 39 area and that would then potentially set up the second leg of downside so ideally what we'd see is a three-wave corrective move here like this into this resistance zone so three-way corrective move get into the resistance zone here and then we'd look for an equal leg move to the downside to complete this much bigger corrective pattern so you can see that will give us equal legs there like that so this will be the ideal scenario that we'd see playoffs equally what we have we if we continue in almost like a straight down move here if we don't find support then what I've been watching for is this symmetry swing so this is this corrective leg here overlay versus our current high so that would suggest that we go test of the four four thousand level and that coincides with the trend line get rid of that one for now that coincides with this internal trend line it would be the fourth test so you'd have to be careful but certainly I pay attention to any reversal patterns there with the with the additional confirmation of the VWAP and the psych but at the moment we uh we look like we're trying to put in a base here and I would suggest that this would be this will be completing this this initial impulse legs of the downside and we'd still have more work to do after uh after a corrective squeeze here higher Dow Jones now it's coming into its symmetry swing support exceeded it by a tick well not by a tick by by by a little bit here but you can see we're now finding support and potential to try and reverse here again because of the nature of this move I would anticipate that we would be looking for a three-wave corrective move before getting another leg to the downside to ultimately test this trend line this is the trend line in terms of the Dow off the off the lows here let's just zoom out so that's the trend line going back to the March lows so this is going to be a pivotal area because if we break there then uh and we could certainly have some more work to do on the downside and you know I would seasonally may the the old adage so it may go away this isn't a particularly strong period of time for equity performance so we're paying very close attention to these these major trend lines because they can inform us as to what the likely uh what the likely price action is going to be but we are holding it around this symmetry swing here uh equally what you can do is if we do start to roll over then you go back to the next largest swing I'll just show you how you do this so we'd be thinking then about this swing here and that would give you the target for um for this potential move to the downside and if we do an equal legs here versus the current swing low and we don't know where we're going to correct to um on the upside but if we get a scenario whereby the equal legs maps into this symmetry swing support that's a high probability area where we could uh we could look to see a bounce in terms of the dow NASDAQ uh exceeded its equal legs I highlighted this uh this one yesterday we didn't get confirmation using this strategy to uh to get in on the long side and we eventually did roll over we're now holding the next support zone here using the extension tool and trying to put in a reversal and again because of the nature of the price action I would suggest that we you know we might get something back into this 13,400 level but I would think we have another leg to do on the downside in terms of the uh in terms of the NASDAQ there. Dax this is an interesting one I put this out earlier we've we've got an x w x y equal legs came just shy of it at 40 14,789 and we're now putting in a decent reversal here now this could give a trigger on the long side um either at this candle close or the next candle close if we can get a green on uh on the side here back through the zero line and a green candle then this would actually be an opportunity on the long side because technically we've completed a solid corrective pattern here and that would that would give a trigger on the long side and the target for that move would be the wave five here as an equality objective let me just show you how we get that so we have our target from there overlays here so we've been looking for a move up just shy of towards the 16,000 area so this is one that's going to be active and I'll be watching this as as an opportunity on the long side because we completed a corrective structure this this one looks like it like it has an opportunity developing Nikkei broke out of its triangle support and has come down into its equal legs target versus this swing high here and is trying to find support but we I wouldn't be touching this now until we get back within back above this resistance zone here 28,400 I think that's going to be pretty pretty tricky for for the Nikkei to get through on the first time of asking anyway we might be doing this type of pattern here with Nikkei so I'm not looking I'm not looking to be active there check in with gold still in its ascending trend line this is the daily trend line I highlighted in a few in a chart here that I did watch watch how we trade here so if we can hold this current support I think we get up and into here and I'd be very interested to see what sort of response we get there because I think that could set up a deeper corrective move in terms of gold and then we'll establish whether or not we're out we're going to move meaningfully higher so I'm paying very close attention to this 1858 to 1860 area and and I think we could we could see a roll over from there silver in its trend channel respecting it nicely so watch if we get a green green side here and a green candle then I think there's opportunity on the long side certainly think about testing the sending trend line resistance coming in just about the $28 level last but not least let's take a look at sterling cow this is one I'm watching as an opportunity on the long side so we had the move off the lows which was a big equality objective so this swing into here measure down here we tested it to the pit and got a nice response an initial response higher we've now pulled back so what I'm watching for now will be the next rotation for a green candle and a green psych to set up the at least a three-way corrective move versus wherever we get our low measured against our current reaction high so currently the target would be 73 and that also coincides with symmetry swing resistance versus this swing here overlaid here so that comes in at 7284 so we've got some nice confidence there and what I'd really like to see is the neck the green candle and the green side rotation come on a break at the trend line and I'll be looking to to get long sterling cad here targeting that 73 area so that was a whistle-stop tool here of the of some of the opportunities I'm seeing on four hour charts employing a nice simple trend strategy to to get into into trades with a double confirmation and I hope you found that useful are there any questions equally if you don't have any questions and I've done a spectacular job of explaining all of that if you type an n in the chat box so I know that we're all on the same page okay good stuff everyone well keep an eye now on these uh these these next cut to our closes we've got a question here no okay keep an eye on these these trend lines in these dollar majors that's it's they're going to be pivotal for defining the the next phase of price action here and certainly that's that equal wasted dollar index sitting at trend line that can inform you about how you can play the the yen the sterling the euro and the Aussie so uh important test here of the trend line okay thanks uh thanks very much uh quick question good data from us today um I don't I don't see today's data having as much impact as as the cpi the cpi is really uh was the key one today I'd watch retail sales tomorrow that that might give uh might be a bit more informative I think people I think the reaction yesterday in the market we saw that two-way whip I think that was people really digesting uh the current data set and then trying to think about where we head from here but what we what you've got to factor at the moment is this this upside pressure we're seeing in the dollar is driven by the idea that you know we've got inflation rates are moving higher check in here with the uh the 10-year 10-year treasury 169 um so the this this is what's driving the dollar move at the moment the idea that you know inflation is here to stay it's not trans transitory like uh the the fed believe but um you know it it's you can see that the indecision in the market's been driven by this you know is this inflation transitory was it to be expected because economies have been wind down simultaneously and now they're slowly opening back up and so it's going to be uh it's going to be a bit more of a wait wait and see certainly with respect to um you know the the virus you know are we going to see Newton strains come out into the back end of summer and if that's the case then it's going to be jitters again about uh economies facing restrictions etc so the the market it's we're we're in an inflection point here and you can see it in the charts so i would uh i would just follow the charts at this j at this stage especially when we get to these areas where a bunch of these major charts are all at these similar inflection points it will be uh i'll be telling to see if we're either break or hold in terms of the uh the next phase okay i'm going to wrap this one up here and uh we will reconvene at the same time next week all the best traders thanks very much