 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The Tiger Technician Hour with your host, Basil Chapman. Call now, toll free at 1-877-927-6648. Hi, guys. I'm Basil Chapman on this Monday, the 25th of October, 10.06. And we are about at a decent time. And we're looking at the DAWB 21 at 35,698. It's going to be a really fascinating one. I went through all the charts over the weekend. And certainly for my subscribers at opening call, I did that webinar on Tuesday. I stopped it just a little before the charts that I had already noted and everything. Just before the end, because we were running out of time, but I wanted to finish up talking about the VIX. We did that. And then I said to subscribers the next day that I'll be following up when the archive is there and on Saturday in my webinar, sorry, in my video that I do for the overview. I'll finish up those slides, which is what I did. And one of the things that we were looking at is that so many charts have gone like the DAWB methodology. We're always looking from an identifiable low bar to count each excessively higher high to notate them alphabetically in sequence on the upside. It's uppercase letters on the downside is lowercase letters just to identify the trend. We're looking at the chance of going all the way to seven peaks to the upside, but it's at that fourth highest peak, peak D, we label it ABCD, that other things can happen. And that's exactly what we're looking at right now. Look, the DAW has made a leg D at 35,765. One of the reasons why we're long is that we looked at it as the technicals were improving. It kept on bumping into that right here. Inside track repellent zone. The repellent zone can give you a one-to-one to the upside if it breaks out. It's done that. We've taken just a little bit off as it went to that leg D, but now I'm starting to look at it and say, well, there are a lot of things going on. So let's discuss those things. I suspect the day is so young, we're not even at 38 minutes into the session. So it's impossible to discuss, as if it was a closing bar, what this candle is going to do. But I think we're real close to some kind of a short-term digestive phase. Just a short-term, it doesn't have to be more than three days, five days. If it does pull back, it doesn't have to. I'm just saying, I always get a little bit cautious in leg D, in the traveling methodology, but wait a minute, the diamonds, the diamond's just a trading vehicle, has made a leg E. Both of these could recycle for a traveling instant restart, but at this particular point to have a restart and suggest that we could go to another four peaks higher over the coming, that would take us into, it would definitely take us into November, it's a possibility, but I think we are more likely to have some kind of a digestive phase. That's just my thinking. At this particular point, no real action towards that. We're still long, we grabbed along. In fact, we've got stocks that could be in the $300, $400, $500, $600 area. Not the point, we've also got stocks that are in single digits. And today we grabbed a single-digit stock. I liked it. I've liked it a lot. We missed a big move to the upside over the weekend, and I showed that this is still looking good. So it closed at I think it was $8.50, $8.50 on Friday. Pre-market it was up quite a bit. I said, no, no, no. We're going to try to buy a pullback below a certain level. At this point, we said $8.51. We were fortunate. The print low is $8.50. The pre-market low was a little bit lower. There are just a couple of pennies lower, but we managed to get it. And my target was that I wanted to see this go from the $8.50 area to touch the $9.00. It needed to get to $9.00 and $9.00 quickly. So it's done that this morning. It's now at about $8.94, some about 5%. This is one of the screamest stocks that we talk about. The day is young. Anything can happen. It's already gotten to that LED that was missing. These days are so important in the Chapman methodology. I have no idea whether it's going to succeed or not, but I did one, and I know it's late, but I looked at it saying, if this particular, it's in the energy area, if this particular stock starts to garner strength from here, it could turn that whole $8.50 to $8.30 area into support. That's the way I'm looking at it, $8.00 that is. That's the way I'm looking at everything right now. What are your risk rewards? What are the areas that are still working over the weekend? I looked at investors' business daily stocks. Some of them I hadn't heard of before. What was this BLD? Let me just check. Is that one BLD? Yeah, BLD. This is top-build corporation in soil, distribute, installation, and building materials. I mean, let's face it, this is the time for that. And at a spectacular move, just recently from the 200-period moving average at $200, where to $250 is trading right now at $245. It's made of PXC. I could have grabbed something like this. I just didn't want subscribers at this particular point to be spending that kind of money. Of course, you could buy 10 shares, you don't have to buy more than that. But that wasn't the point. The point was to try to identify in this particular phase right now where we are, what we are doing, what are the risks and where we want to be very careful. All right, just with that said, let me go to the next chart. I want to look at the S&P and I want to discuss that because I'm taking a little time today to discuss what I'm expecting here and during the week. So my suspicion is that the S&P is making a peak D. What do I mean by that? I mean that there's a chance that there is no new high today, a peak C that is. There is no new high today. It's one letter behind the Dow. It should go to a D base on everything we're looking at. Not on the short term, the short, very, very near term. We've got the E-mini that just went in the one-minute chart to a peak E at about 930, slumps down from a high of the day of 45-48, and it slumps down to the 45-29s. It has a big balance of where does it go to? Peak D, and now it's pulling back at peak D, but that might just be a sideways consolidation. I'm not sure about that. It shouldn't be too deep if this is a peak C coming up, and I'm still expecting a leg D by maybe tomorrow or the next day. So as it stands right now, I just want to do something at this particular point. We haven't got that. We haven't got that. So long-legged doji candle for leg C on Friday in the S&P spies exactly the same. What's interesting is that the Dow diamonds, diamonds are in E. The S&P and the spire in sync, not the Dow and the Dow diamonds. That's very interesting. So I'm a little further ahead, and the diamonds going to a leg E. More importantly, what we're looking at is the QQQ. So where would I be looking at at 453 in the spy? I know people like to look at the spy. I think the 451 to 459 area is kind of the support this week, but actually what I'm looking at is in a very short term. This should just go. Friday's low of 451.05. I think we just got a meander right now, and then we pop to D tomorrow. And then I think we've got to be somewhat careful. Let's go to the QQQ. This is the NDX100 trading vehicle. Triple Q's. And we're looking at a peak B that was formed. The one-to-one says it could go all the way to 380. But in the meantime, back at the ranch, it's kind of struggling right here. Looking at it, I'm saying it's lagging. I think the QQQ is going to continue to lag. Do they test the all-time high? There's no reason why they shouldn't, but I still think that that's what we're looking at at the moment. Tommy Jr. was talking about testing it just earlier on in his show and test the right place at an all-time high. All-time high. I'll be right back. Basil Chapman, take it. 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TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV, live every market day from 8.30 a.m. to 4.00 p.m. Eastern. Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world. From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be. TFNN, educating investors. Call now, toll-free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-873-7618. I remember when we were back, I was up 48, oops, it's a little more nice. I was up 51 and S&P's up 7. We're looking at IWM, which is the Russell 2000 finally seeing a little strength here and this is now a leg, is this a leg E? But it looks very good. Leg E, within the context of the rectangle going from the lower part of the halfway mark to the upper part. Nice action, in fact. Let's see, I think it's about 50-50. If I drew a midpoint right here into the rectangle just there, right? I'm doing it visually, so that's about where I do it. Right there, in fact, I could raise it just a fraction and you'll see that the number of bars on the upside to the number of bars on the downside actually favours the upside. The big spikes on the downside are big but the actual pressure points with the market closing on a weekly basis above the trend line says more price movement to the upside, very good. So I suspect that we will get to a leg D in the IWM, it's made of PXC1, C2, what does that mean? It just missed my point or so, just by a fraction going to a leg D and I usually call that as a PXC and even more importantly it suggests that there's a magnet there at the C's level, that PXC and I suspect we will get to a leg D at some point. Okay, a couple of things I wanted to talk about here. Whoops, the SMHs, the SMHs are the semiconductor, ETF, PXC is really lagging, lagging a lot just like the Q's are and that's why I'm saying the semiconductor, I believe that the chip shortage could come to some kind of a negative climax over the coming weeks and then I would not be surprised in the first quarter of 2022 there's almost like a glut, a glut of chips. But how does that play out? You never know how this is going to play out. Look at this, chip shortage, chip shortage, 2021 has just been basically almost every other month higher highs so we can't discuss this in a rational way to say we know exactly what's going on. The chip shortage was a very selective chip shortage. Money has been going into putting certainly in the automobile industry now we're finding out what's happening. There are a lot of high-end cars and there are a lot of low-end cars that are having the chips pushed so that they can market the sales where you get nothing or you pretty much have to go to the higher end so they can push the prices up and one of the reasons why I think we're seeing the prices like a general motors up at most recent highs not all time highs but recent highs is because of that very factor that prices are being pushed up and certain what you need inventory there's no question about it and that will show up and then I think what we're looking at is at some time in 2022 we might find that we've resolved some of that they'll do in a very selective way it might take time but yes absolutely I think the chip shortages are coming to some kind of a head and we're about to find out exactly which companies are doing the right thing amongst their dealers and that is sending off cars that are probably in the middle using up whatever chips they've got and not selectively try to push the higher end so that people really have to people are paying thousands more for automobiles as far as I can tell there are probably no discounts people take your trading and will give you a good price the good price that they give you is not what you could get in the real market if you sold it yourself sometimes it's two, three, four, five thousand dollars difference so this is going to be a very complex phase let's go back to our story what we really want to look at is if you're talking about interest rates interest rates let me show you this chart this is a chart that I show subscribers to my opening call on Saturday my Saturday overview webinar video and this is the chart of the 30 the 10 of the five year yields y is the 30, tyx t and x is the 10 year and f of vx come on, come on is the five year look at the five year you would not believe how steep the five year has gone hello anybody home uh-oh hello anybody home uh-oh let me see if I can move to a different chart no yes I can oh there it is alright good so look at this look at the cyan color five year look how it's broken out ab leg c we're only in leg at peak b in the 30 year and we're at a I believe this is a peak oh it's so tiny let me see if I can find it uh let's see 11, 86 and 11 I'm moving it to the right there it is there are 11, 86 and then we've got 13, 85 is what I'm looking at 13, 86 so this is a leg c yes sir this is a leg c so five years a leg c in the dating chart in the yields that's the five year f vx cyan color yield this is the 10 the brown is the 10 year yield t and x in leg c unless it makes no new hide this week it makes it a peak c and peak b in the 30 year big discrepancy look how close they're getting they're getting that squash I'd love to see that um and then we'll talk about what it means but in the meantime look at the wood the ice shares global timber and frost sheets you have just sideways not breaking down not breaking up and the same thing with the uh the bull the this is the housing Philadelphia housing index it is acting quite nice it's in a second art formation um let's see on a one month our ROC basis okay two year up 22 basis five years 35 yeah yeah it's very interesting it's a steepening of the curve and uh all I can say is we're gonna with the yields curve steepens it often makes the market very nervous but over the last year that hasn't had the same effect as usual but we'll be watching it very closely it's a close work space thank you we're done there let's get back to our story I want to take a little another moment here before the break to say uh the TLT is down 14 cents at 143.99 but it's in the lower band it seems to me that yields are going to be so important over the coming two weeks uh sorry two months um if there's a break below 139 in the TLT that the yields will be screaming higher if there is a push into the 140 we had 144 147s that's a lot if it goes 147s the yields just come down and says don't worry about me I'm just stuck in a range we'll be looking at that let's just look at the crude oil crude oil okay so look at this I love to draw channels I teach that in my webinars all the time I don't want to make this messy but I'm just for demonstration purposes I'm making that green I'm making that red that's your chapter we've inside track repellent zone well pink actually I like to make the inside pink and we're there right now I'm not going to do the bottom because you got a nine period moving average got the 14 period moving average you got the trendline I don't have to change color so in the meantime back at the ranch the crude oil is bumping into resistance the on balance volume the blue on balance lines making it a little m shaped patterns getting a little toppy it's good for a little week and then it was 90s outstanding success it's excellent at 90% how does this go back I need to talk about the Simpsons to a Basel chapter tiger tickers are a nice content are you having fun trading the markets but having 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at least I need another price a little bit lower and then I feel confident in saying that that's a peak D at 4.6855 that was around about the 18th 19th of the month and I am looking at this as in the cup formation in the weekly chart as being a grey-legged B because the magnia hasn't yet crossed positive it's at 0% right now and stochastic is only a 66 on balance volume has been pretty good so all I can say is that copper is in play but it's kind of struggling to make a new recovery high and most importantly I like to put copper together with wood that's the iShares global timber and forestry and this is suggesting that there is international strengthening in the economies but at the same time there is a stuck attitude towards this it's not breaking out and if it does break out that's going to be really important the other the other thing that is going to be quite important here is how does how's the XLF doing that's the financials and it is benefiting from higher yields so it's in leg D and this is what I'm saying the reason why I'm getting just a little bit cautious here haven't gone short or anything any position still long positions and one of the reasons is when yields go higher it isn't the only thing but it's a really big help for the financials and of course the financials aren't just financials they aren't just making all sorts of things that we don't even know about because we always find out what they were doing when the crash comes there's no sign yet anywhere close that there should be a crash in the XLF selects S&P financial spider fund I've only gone in legs C in the weekly chart but at the same time I do think it's becoming a little overbought leg D that's all but the mag D is good stochastics at 96% that's fabulous soul overbought or anything like that it's pretty good, relative strength is showing strength so I think this is still in play and as I've said before I love the financials our bank stock that we have subscribers to opening call in the 31s is now at the 47s area a really nice game now what's really important here is how does for instance let's just use Goldman Sachs as an example Goldman is under his all time high of 428.76 that was made back in beginning of September dropped sharply to 370 that's about a 12-13% decline and then it goes peak A B, C and here it is again in leg D this is why I'm saying I'm becoming a little not nervous I don't want to say nervous because I still see a lot of stocks acting really well I'm sorry to see a lot of stocks getting to this leg D either at just under or just above the all time highs and it just seems to me stocks that make all time highs seem to continue doesn't stop them from having some kind of a bit of a pullback and that's kind of what I'm anticipating at this particular point that we're getting closer and closer to that chip policy Paul says the chip supply will follow the collapsing economy stay dry yeah yeah I don't think it's quite that's a little globe I know I don't think it's going to be quite that easy or simple there's a lot going on here a question came in about radio show question let's see another question as well by UNG all right let me just see UNG UNG came first I'll do that Basel what does it say first thanks for your newsletter I am a new subscriber enjoyed it thoroughly I would like you to review your thoughts on UNG I opened a half position to test the waters I plan to hold this in my retirement account through spring my thoughts were to add on strength and need help where I might add a stopper the way up or to protect loss on the way down I will be ordering your book to better understand the techniques again thanks for all you do I am in UNG at 1814 I will be listening today Joe in Tampa so Joe let's just do this UNG now that that's the natural gas there you go UNG it's the vehicle United States natural gas fund it's a good I thought I had not created this all right I have notated NG I know I haven't notated UNG but it has exactly the same pattern so UNG just to be clear you see these prices here you see how they're getting obliterated by the block of the candles the reason is it gets smoothed out I'm looking at the continuous contract so it always gets smoothed out nothing changes about about the pattern nothing changes about the notation of the peaks nothing changes about anything the technicals nothing other than because it gets smoothed out you're looking at the price change so whatever the price was a couple of weeks ago on the 6th of October on that most recent high of six dollars six four seven cents now it could have been different on that day all right but the pattern is exactly the same so what we've got here is one two three four five six bars to this little cup for shape lower high pattern and one two three four five six seven bars it's one two three four five six yeah it is seven bars to the upside I happen to think that natural gas I was doing someone yesterday about this saying you know ever since that pipeline what administration I don't know how they assess this I don't know what they did but ever since they just on the day of the first day as president Biden just obliterated everything I personally would rather try to handle the aspect of fracking and all these things in some kind of even if it's a legislative way so that we become independent you've got to make some sacrifice to be independent of other countries surely and now we once again dependent on other countries so that's a little political spiel I have to talk about that because that absolutely is an issue here because crude oil is what we're 50% higher than we were so this is an issue and it is obviously also a political issue otherwise I wouldn't be talking about it politically so how that handles is not my business the result is my business but I'm just talking about it as part of the equation when you're looking at everything so I'm kind of with you Joe I think that natural gas at least for the next I don't know about the spring but at least for this phase we should see higher prices in natural gas this candle in the monthly chart in grey leg B no it's a proper leg B now because the price is at 87% on balance volume is not too great but yeah this is in fact a buy mode that says it should go to a C and a D so I'm with you how you handle sort of the smaller trade is really going to be important so let's go to your UNG maybe during the break I'll get to note take this actual UNG chart so you asked me about UNG and I'm going to give you why is it not going there click click because I kept typing it on the chart UNG what a strange thing okay you've just broken this down trend line the day is young so we can only say at this particular moment as we're speaking at what 1982 you've broken above Chapman Wave inside track repellent zone there it is and now it has to act as a propellent zone of 18.76 you're in at 18.14 Joseph this is I want to do this because I actually had a couple of calls I had my own questions over the weekend about exactly this I'll take some time we've got the break I'll do the chart I'll be like that are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the Bay Area including the surrounding St. Petersburg Tampa and Clearwater markets Tiger Real Estate is a firm that has extensive experience in the Tampa Bay Area whether you're looking to sell your current property for maximum value or you're in the market for a second home or investment property Tiger Realty has the experience across all areas of real estate in the Tampa Bay Area to help buyers and sellers make the most informed decisions across all price levels from the price you should be paying per square foot in certain up and coming areas to the type of cash flow investment properties are capable of creating real estate can help you make the best decision when it comes to all areas of the market before you make one of the biggest decisions of your financial future call Tiger Real Estate LLC today at 727-329-8322 or email us at tiger at tfnn.com that's 727-329-8322 call us today the technology around us is changing every day with so much happening it can seem impossible to keep up with all the information David White's investment newsletter the Technology Insider is designed to give you all the information you need to understand the technology that shapes today's markets and tomorrow's future David White has made his living staying on the cutting edge of technology his weekly newsletter will give you specific recommendations for value tech stocks as well as entry prices target prices and stops to set for each trade Dave delivers his weekly newsletters every Friday with updates throughout the week you can get the Technology Insider at tfnn.com for only $37.50 sign up for David's newsletter the Technology Insider and get an inside look at everything the technology sector has to offer try it risk-free today with our 30-day money back guarantee tfnn educating investors biotech is booming but for how long whether you think the biotech bull has room to run or has run its course LABU or LABD Directions Daily S&P Biotech 3 times bull and bear ETFs Visit Direction Investments.com slash biotech today an investor should consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of the direction shares carefully before investing the prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares to obtain a prospectus or summary prospectus please contact Direction Shares at 476-7523 the prospectus or summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing an investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal the funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors distributor 4-side fund services LLC Welcome back we are looking at UNG the United States natural gas fund the monthly chart is new leg B it's done this before where the technicals were okay but what happened was in the previous big spike we went to a peak ABCD way back in 2016 to 2017 I think it was maybe December or 16 or January and then it went to PDN and made an arch and pulled back and then it had another rally from about the 19s area all the way to 40, just about 40 at a peak B- and yet the stochastic didn't get to 80% it failed, that's a really good clue that there's no inner strength there's no sustainability now what is done is gone in the monthly chart to a leg B with a long leg of doji so that was a real whoopie so far a very whoopie few weeks October but it did make a new recovery high the real highs that you want to look at is the high of 22.81 that is in November of 2019 and September of 2019 and went to 2340, that would be my upside target I could draw left side, right side price, time match I could do it now, Maisel and that says within two months certainly by January there should be a test of the upper level, that's in the 23s and it's at 19 right now of course that could happen in hours but I'm just saying this is my left side, right side, price, time match and most importantly this is the first time that the technicals in the monthly chart have seen the stochastic actually get above 80% to 89% I think that's really good and so far it's flat the charts that we can't really tell look at the weekly chart it's gone from a trough at just above $8 what was it $8 and 22 cents on the first that's the first week of January of this year went to peak A, peak B, peak C then it arched over but held really nicely in the ninth and then what did it do it went to a leg D with the Chapman instant restart so this could be called G-A, F-B and we're at G-C with the Magdi strong stochastic now pulling back at 68% a hint to say there's some kind of internal failure but the on balance volume is still good and the 9 is still way above the 14 that is fabulous strength so I like what we're looking at I'm taking a little time here, I want to do it for myself I want to do it for subscribers if they're watching and I want to do it for Joe because he's already in it and he's got a little bit of a profit about what is it no, a little more, it's almost a 2.0 this is a very nice profit in fact so you've got yourself about an 8 or 9% gain, what I am looking at here is what happens with this potential head and shoulders pattern well, the technicals are suggesting on the daily chart that this is a big help, the fact that it gapped up to dates $1.44 up 19.82 if we can have a follow through if there's even just a touch of this high of the 14th which is at 20.57 in the next 2 weeks and we treat this chart wave inside track now it's a propellant, it was a repellant zone as some kind of a trampoline it shouldn't even get there the 9 pre moving average is 1876 the maximum it should get is within the gap up today gap up low is so far 1954 I'd even give it 1920 to 1897 that's the area, I don't want to see a close below that otherwise it's liable to fail but if it holds and for whatever reason I don't care what the reason is if natural gas is even able to spike into the 20.30 area preferably closing near there then I think what we're looking at is natural gas has acted really well I just want to show you this here look at crude oil look at that steady move up you see the channels work the way up channel trap wave inside track repellant zone works look how many times it's hit that and pull back and yet it's not fading at all see the way the magti is hinting see the way the stochastic is at 91% the on balance volume is hinting that it's really close to some kind of a dip that's all just a dip even that red candle gave it a dip that's all but what's really important is that that weekly chart I have to consider an alternate wave count and that's the magti is 97% the on balance volume is a tad overboard sorry the magti is strong, the stochastic is 97% monthly chart has got the V-shaped pattern what was the high and of course this keeps changing so that whatever the high is it's the front high that we can take for now and that was the 85 85 level back in October of last year today's high is 85.41 we're almost there in the V-shaped recovery to the double top so oil is very close to some kind of just because it's bumping into a barrier needs to pull back to before it can build but this is the area we're watching closely so I want to put it together going back to the natural gas, the UNG UNG is playing catch up and that's the way I want you to think of it they're only in sync in trend but they're not in sync in percentages or chart formations not that much I like UNG I think it's acting really well I think it's in play that's one of the reasons why the particular vehicle to go long, which is in the energy sector but it's not oil, it's not natural gas I think that's a the other alternate areas are going to play catch up to the oil, that's just the way I'm thinking I think you're right, what's the key support on a very short term basis when you're 18-18 or 18-11 whatever it is your entry point that should be sectorized right now I don't see a reason why it should come back to that level I think there could be a little bit of a pullback and then another bounce and it's after that bounce that we need to say is the pattern going to be a rectangle formation, is it going to be a new cup formation, is it a double top, not a double top is it a hidden shoulders pattern, whatever it is I want to give it another day or two but so far you're in the right area, right at this moment perfect, this is looking well hold on and we'll talk about where to add and what to do but this is let's just treat this as the first day of the week as a gap up in natural gases occurring, let's see if there's follow through to the upside there, alright next question I got was FXI, if I could just look at FXI, yeah, FXI is at peak D, leg D, it could be a peak D, it's a nice bounce, it needs much more to the eye shape, this is the large cap China ETF I'm looking at this and saying nice rebound, I discussed this was a possibility but I really need to see follow through by Friday, I'm giving it all five days to close about 4323 is at 4326, 4323 is the 200 prem removing average I want to see two closes above 4367 and then I'm going to say to you, aha China's having more than a rebound, this could actually be persistent, well it suddenly starts to decline alright, hope that fulfills the questions there, natural gas I've been told the sentiment questions, LNG oh I haven't looked at LNG, that was one on my favorite list and I completely forgot to put it in the favorite list, LNG is 107 this is Shenier Energy, I think this is a peak A, peak B peak C, I think it looks, it looks good I'm going to see in the in the weekly sharp, it does look good, it could digest a little bit more it could even test 104 I don't want to see a break 100, if the right count runs 740 up to 230, but if it does up 80 we'll be right back 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