 OK, so, welcome again to another live notice session with me, Patrick Munley. Before we get going here, as always, quick review with the risk disclaimer. As we know, trading any financial investment carries an inherent risk. And most importantly, the views expressed here today are solely mine. They're not indicative or representative of opinions held by Tick Mill UK Limited or Tick Mill Euro Limited. Before we jump into today's material, just a quick overview of my background. I've been involved in financial markets for 15 years now. I wasn't always involved in financial markets after I graduated from university. I joined a city consulting firm and after a couple of years learning the ropes left and did a start-up. Over a four to five year period that business went through some pretty rapid growth and I decided to cash in my stake and to explore my passion really for markets. I'd had a front row seat to the dotcom boom and bust and had seen people literally making lose a fortune in the markets at times overnight. So I started what I'd referred to loosely as gambling or meddling in the markets in late 2004 or 2005. Day trading the S&P 500, which at that stage was pretty much just trending to the upside. And I've made some initial gains and then some quite significant gains. And I thought that this is too good to be true. I should have been doing this all along. But as is often the case, my beginner's luck ran out. And I gave back all the gains in a pretty short period of time and then I actually took a six figure hit on my personal capital. So it was that stage that I decided I need to step back from what I was doing and assess the potential for me to either make money in the markets or to stop trading. So I sought out a mentor, someone who displayed excellence in the field of trading and worked with this guy for 18 months to two years. Not just upping my technical game, but more importantly, my mental game is a period during which I became far more self aware and made the important step of moving from being a goal orientated individual, which is what I needed to be in my prior commercial experience to actually becoming a process orientated individual. And there's a very distinct difference there in trading. Setting any type of near term goals with respect to your gains in the market or your returns in terms of financial returns is really is the wrong way to go about things. What you have to do in terms of being a professional trader is focus solely on process because if you have a process that has been solidly back tested and forward tested and you have a trading plan in place, then as long as you execute that plan over an extended series of outcomes, you should see a positive return, your age should demonstrate itself in trading. And so during that period I developed and rigorously back tested a business plan, trading plan and forward tested and then came back to the markets in 2008 with my own capital, obviously tumultuous year, not dissimilar, well in some ways to the year we're going through at the moment, but I actually was able to run out that year and at the end of the year have a positive return to do. Performance data you can see on the screens from 2013, that's because over that five year period from 2008 to 2013, friends and family saw what I was doing in the markets and they wanted a piece of the action. So I set up a managed accounts business, which has grown organically now, it's a multi-million dollar portfolio that I manage and the data is from when I started doing that service because I share that publicly for potential investors. So the most important figures really for me down here are the ones down here in the bottom corner. An average losing month I give back or lose 2.32%, an average winning month it's 7.96%. So if you extrapolate that out, you can see that more often than not I'm making two to three times what I lose and that is an important metric for long-term success and just going back really to that process every outcome mantra that I have, you can see here that I have losing months, I have multiple losing months, but what I keep doing and this is how you actually develop as a trader and develop a potential career is I just keep executing my strategy. I know that I can lose the next trade. Personally, I'm not emotionally invested at all in the outcome of the next trade or even the outcome of the next 10 trades where my focus lies is over the next 100 trades because I know that with a large enough sample size, mighty edge will demonstrate itself. And so that really is the key from my perspective anyway to making the change from being someone who's just dabbling or meddling in the markets is having that focus purely on process and letting the process and the execution of the process take care of the outcomes over time. So alongside my trading, obviously I'm a market expert in residence at Tick Mill where I provide a daily market outlook and a chart of the day or a set up for the day ahead. You can access that through the Tick Mill blog. You can even enter your email there and get those automatically sent to your inbox. The other project I'm involved in, which is a real passion project for me, is FX Korea Swap, an online trading education firm where I'm the head of trading and trader education. And the business really is about developing retail trading talents and taking traders through a process, a step-by-step process in terms of understanding the markets, then working with the strategies that I've used over the past 12 years to successfully navigate the markets. And then we actually, once you develop your business plan, your trading plan, we then actually fund you and then you basically overcome what I've deemed to be one of the biggest challenges for retail traders, which is capitalisation and a lot of traders, they have a plan to start trading, but what happens is because they're trading a small amount of capital, a relatively small amount of capital, that the professional risk management strategies that you need to employ to be successful over the long term, if you're making 20 or 30% a year, if that 20-30% is on a $1,000 or $2,000 account, that's not really going to move the needle with respect to your financial returns. So what we offer at FX Korea Swap is a significance, a $50k starting account, which you can actually grow up to $2 million. We're actually offering a 14-day free trial. I'll post a link in the chat for anyone who's interested in following up or would like to see or learn more about what we're doing at FX Korea Swap. So that gives you a flavour of where I'm coming from, and now let's move into the material I want to cover with you today. We're going to start by looking at the S&P 500. We're heading into the elections, and we're starting to see more and more rhetoric now as we've had the Democratic Party conference last week. Obviously, this will have virtually due to COVID, but this week we've had the Republican Party, we know who the candidates are now, and the election process is really getting underway. There's an interesting seasonal factor here with respect to certainly the S&P 500, and that's that the markets in election years, and you can see we're going all the way back to the start of the S&P in the lower section here in the 1950s, and more recently since 1995, have a clear pattern, and that's that the market has a tendency or a high probability to top out ahead of the election. So we're looking really at this August, September win, obviously we're coming to the back end of August now, but this August-September window has historically, and certainly over the last 70 years, and the last 25 years, seen a market top put in place, and this is because of the high degree of uncertainty about who the next president will be and how their policies are going to impact the market. And certainly from a regulatory perspective and from a policy stance and tax stance, markets have a tendency to want to take some exposure off the table ahead of the election. So that's why we tend to get this pattern where the S&P tops out into this late August, early to mid September. And so we want to be cognisant of that potential because these seasonal patterns have a tendency to replicate over time. Certainly if they don't repeat, they certainly rhyme. So we want to pay attention to this potential for a pullback here. And then we've got a couple of other charts here. This is the NASDAQ showing the 21-day advanced decline breadth. So what we're looking at here is the amount of stocks advancing versus the amount of stocks declining. For a market to be relatively healthy, we want to see this advanced decline line ascending as prices ascending. So similar to other divergence strategies using the RSI or MACD or whatever, the breadth of the market, so this 21-day breadth, is an important factor to watch as a sense check for the overall health of the market advance. And what we're seeing here, that any time we've seen major new highs and we're seeing a decline in the advance, in the breadth of the market, that's tended to foreshadow certainly a pullback or a period of correction. And you can see just prior to the big drop-off that we saw at the start of this year, that breadth was already declining. Now obviously we've made new highs, but equally what we pay attention to here is that the breadth of the market is diminishing pretty rapidly. And so again, we've started to think about, so now we've got the seasonal factors with respect to the pre-election cycle years and how they've tended to top out. And now we can start to see some of the actual infrastructure, looking under the hood of the market so to speak, we can see that we've got some issues with respect to the breadth, so the actual support for the market appears to be deteriorating quite rapidly. And then if we go to the S&P 500, S&P 500 is down here, and then we've got the New York Stock Exchange advanced decline line. So New York's common stocks and the advanced decline deferential. And again, if we look to prior periods when we've seen sell-offs, what we tend to get is the market tops, but we see a decline in breadth. So the breadth of the market is starting to fall away. That means we're not seeing the structural support underneath the market that we need to see to continue to support higher prices. And you can see here, as we've made these new highs this week, we've actually started to see a divergence developing. Prior similar divergences have seen certainly pullbacks, if not major corrections in the market. So we've got the NASDAQ, which has been the runaway cheerleader for the market, certainly in the recovery period that we've witnessed. We've got an issue there with the advanced decline breadth, and we're seeing the same issue in the S&P. And as I mentioned, we have this, the seasonal factor that we want to consider. And finally, here is the S&P index has never been this extended versus its 200-day average. So the S&P is now at a record dispersion from its 200-day moving average, going back over all data here. So this is another factor that we want to pay attention to. Remember, in trading once, we're always in this process of stretching the elastic and then coming back for a reversion to the mean. So we're starting to see a bunch of factors here that potentially support the notion that we can head into a corrective period. I'm not suggesting we're going to crash here, but certainly there is the potential and scope for a pullback. So that's the S&P. We're going to cover the charts in a minute and we'll look at the potential technical setup. What I wanted to just quickly cover off here as well, obviously today is going to be a pretty pivotal day for the markets. We've got the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman, Powell, will open today's virtual Jackson Poll symposium with a speech at Tempast 1 GMT. The market wants to see details on how the Fed intends to ensure the U.S. economy remains on track in the current crisis. The details, or lack of which, will likely weigh on the dollar or will likely see a dollar move today. JP Morgan noted that it's unlikely that Powell will not address the Fed's policy review before the September Fed meeting. September 16th is the next Fed meeting. JP Morgan says average inflation targeting is a baseline expectation for the market at the moment. So it expects the U.S. dollar to come under more pressure if Powell effectively sets the stage for a rollout of this framework at the September meeting. And a more pressure will become if he gives specifics and assurances that it's moving forward with this plan. Clearly, obviously, there's scope for disappointment. If Powell avoids the subject or dismisses it, which would no doubt see the dollar regain some of its recent losses. Underpinning this is we've seen a spike in terms of FX option volatility. We're certainly seeing elevated levels. So what we're getting, what we want to be cognizant of here is that the market has specific expectations to see some volatility today. And this speech could drive the next phase in terms of the cycle for the next phase in terms of these markets. And we're going to take a look at a bunch of markets in one second to see where we could be heading. Lastly, Morgan Stanley FX positioning tracker here. We're seeing that the largest short is obviously in the U.S. dollar. We're at pretty stretch levels. We're not quite as stretched as we had been, but certainly the FX markets are most long, the euro, most short, the U.S. dollar, Kiwi and the Aussie within the G10 space. So that's just some off-the-chart material that I share with the guys in my trading team and hopefully you'll find that stuff useful. So let's take a look at the charts. I want to start by looking at, just reviewing some of these weekly charts that we talked about in the prior session. So we've got this dollar index on the weekly sitting on this trend line. We had a bullish reversal last week after some tails down here. So if Powell disappoints the market today in terms of not being as dovish as the market is anticipating or certainly looking for, then we can see this trend line hold and we could see a corrective phase develop in terms of the dollar. Certainly we can be back up testing these prior lows at the 94.50. If, however, Powell goes the other way and is Uber dovish talking about the framework and suggesting that that's going to be something that they're looking at doing in the September session, then we certainly would have the potential for certainly a retest of this trend line and potentially we'd break through if the market is impressed with the dovish nature of Powell's chart. So really want to be paying attention to the close this week in this dollar index. And similarly then with the euro, we're sitting right at the trend line again. Lastly, we close with a bearish reversal pattern. This week's been consolidation. And again, if the dollar is going to hold its trend line, then we'd expect the euro to have a pullback here and we could certainly be looking back to these prior highs at the 115 area with the euro sterling sitting at its interim trend line, looking to make a break higher here. But again, if Powell disappoints here, we have the potential for sterling to see a pretty big sell-off, sorry, a reversal. And if it reverses and gets back below this trend line or back to where we opened the week and around this 137, then we have the potential here for a tweezer top in sterling. And again, we could see a sizable correction develop. If Powell gives this dovish view to the market, then if we see sterling close at or above these prior highs, then that's going to open a move up in sterling for me anyway to look for a test of this trend line at 135. Similarly, the Aussie here, again, taking out its trend line resistance at the moment, but again, if Powell disappoints the market, there is the potential that we put in a tweezer top here and we could be in for a pullback in terms of the Aussie. However, if he doesn't and we get the close out or above current levels, then we can see a move up to 75 as the next objective in the Aussie. The Kiwi, similar story here. The Kiwi, however, I mean, if we can close out or above current levels in terms of the Kiwi, we actually broke out of the major descending trend line and this would qualify as a retest, a snapback to retest the trend line from above. And this could set the stage for a move. Certainly we'd be looking at 68 and then on towards 70 if we can hold this pattern. So again, really important for you guys to pay attention to these weekly closes and certainly something that I keep abreast of. The S&P, let's see. So again, we're through the potential broadening top trend line here, but if for whatever reason, if Cal doesn't deliver and we get a weekly close back down through the lows and if we close back through the prior high, that would be a pretty bearish reversal pattern there. And if we think in terms of all the other information or the sentiment and flow information I talked about, we need to certainly watch where the S&P closes. If we can close at or above current levels, then there's scope certainly for a move up to 3718 as the next upside objective. So let's take a look now at the daily charts and where I see the potential. So let's check in with the dollar index here first. So we can see here with the dollar index, the potential is for prices to continue to the downside. You can see the similarities here in terms of the setup that we had when we had the last rollofa. We've got pretty much exactly the same pattern developing here, certainly with the RSI, stochastics, similarly positioned. And then we've got the psych indicator down here against similar setup to when we saw the last rollofa. So the table is laid here. We had an outside reversal to the downside yesterday. We didn't get any follow through the market. It was unlikely to do that. People aren't going to necessarily want to be putting on too much exposure prior to this speech. But certainly if you come in on the dovish side, then I think we've got to run down to 91.30 next to the downside. However, if he's not as dovish and the market takes it as more hawkish, then like I said, we could see this pop up into this descending trend line resistance at 94.90. So today's claims is going to be an important one for the dollar. We've got the dollar index, that's the broad dollar index. And this is the equal weighted dollar index, the Dow Jones dollar index. So it's the dollar versus the euro, the yen sterling and the Aussie in equal measures. And you can see the similarities again in terms of the setup here. Again, nice outside reversal yesterday. No follow through ahead of this meeting, but we want to watch to see where we're closed today. And certainly if we hold this bearish reversal pattern, then we've got objectives down to 116. If whatever reason we reverse and we take out this trend line coming in at 120.50, then I think we'll back up retesting 122 in the coming sessions. Swissy, so I highlighted this in the chart of the day last week and we've continued to consolidate here. We haven't rolled over. And again, if we want a bullish reversal today, then I think there's still scope for this Swissy to get up into this 93.60 area. You can see the wave cycle that I've highlighted. And we can see a corrected move into this 93.60. But again, if Powell is uberdubbish, then I think we're going to be back down and retesting loads. We'll potentially take those out this time. Euro. So a similar story. We didn't quite, I highlighted yesterday that I thought we were going to get a bullish reversal. We didn't quite get it. We closed below the near term volume waste average price. And so that's why this candle is red, although our normal chance was probably green. And we've seen some selling this morning consolidating ahead of Powell. So again, if the Euro takes out these prior loads on the close tonight, then I think we're heading lower in the near term. And I'd see us down testing this 115. The breakpoint here went 14.95. But if Powell is going to do what the market is looking for, then I think we probably get a run at 120 before seeing this correction develop like so. So we get a third test of this trend line. We have some pretty significant divergence there. So if we do get up into this area, we'll certainly be watching again for short positions to trade this for a correction. Euro yen. This is the trend line I highlighted last week. It looks like we might get a test of this. And if we do, I'll be watching for any bullish reversal patterns around this 124.60 as an opportunity to do something on the long side looking for 129.30 in the Euro yen. Sterling. So we're consolidating. This is the broader pattern that I'm looking at. I'm looking for this 135 test. But what I anticipate was we'd probably get a pullback to test this ascending trend line sport at 128.14. There is the potential here that we've got a kind of head and shoulders scenario. But again, the risk is pretty much asymmetric. I'm going into this speech for Powell if he delivers. And oh, sorry, if he disappoints the market, I think we see a pullback in Sterling. But if he delivers, then I think we're probably heading straight up to that 135. But certainly watching that area very closely is that major weekly trend line. A couple of positions I've got on. This is one I highlighted yesterday. I'm looking along the Sterling yen here, looking at this ascending triangle pattern, looking for a breakout. And my target is a symmetry swing versus this last advance from these prilos here. So I'm looking at this 145 area. We've also got this ascending trend line. Let's just tidy this up a bit. So you can see we've got this trend channel we're in. So if we do break out and we get some follow through to the upside, certainly I can see us up to this 145 area. The pre-pandemic break point, 144.94. So there's decent risk reward on this. If we fail, if we don't get, you know, if we can't sustain the upside here, then I think we'll be back down testing this ascending trend line support 136.50 before we try and make another move higher. Sterling Kiwi is another one I'm watching. I'm bullish on Sterling Kiwi. We held a big trend line support here. I'm looking for a corrective move now to look at loans in terms of the Sterling Kiwi. We'll see how the pattern plays out. Don't have a signal just yet. Ozzy, so this is the ending diagonal pattern that I talked about. We're a potential here for a head and shoulder scenario as well. So this being left shoulder, head, right shoulder. But if, you know, if Powell comes in, I think we're back up looking at this 7 to 316 area. And we see this as the next potential reversal point for the Ozzy to get a pullback and a correction. Remember, the Ozzy, these commodity currencies are heavily correlated to risk. So if we're going to see this potential pullback in the S&P and the equity markets, that would underpin the potential for a correction in the Ozzy. So if we don't roll over from current levels, certainly want to watch 7310 area for bearish reversal patterns in terms of the Ozzy. The Ozzy yen is another position I've got on. Similar story to the Sterling Kiwi, looking for a break here of this ascending triangle. We've been in this fight, we can define a five-way pattern here with thinking about the rule of alternation in terms of Elliott wave cycles, where we get a quick start pullback in the one and two. The fourth wave tends to be a protracted affair. And that's what we've got here, but we certainly got momentum set up with the potential for a breakout here. And we've got a couple of measures for our target. So the equality objective versus the fourth wave low. And then we've also got, if the triangle is going to break to the outside, we can use this tool to give us our target area. So the equality objective gets us up into the 80 area, and the triangle would put us up into 80, 90. So I've got to take profit on that at 80, 50. And we'll just see how that one plays out. But certainly the technical pattern is solid Kiwi. Yeah, the Kiwi has got the potential here. Again, it's going to depend on how we close this week. But certainly we could see the potential for another run at this ascending trend line resistance, if Powell does come in on the other side. But again, I'll be watching this 6780 area. We've got these prior highs, 6755. So I think from here we could see a corrective move and it could set up a broadening pattern like so. So we get up here. And then if the equity markets are going to pull back, then we could be back down here. But again, that would just be a set up on the bullish side for higher prices later on. So I've got to pay attention to these equity markets. So let's just finish up today by having a quick look at these. So you can see we've taken out the prior highs, but we've got a bit of divergence developing now. And again, it's really going to be about the close today. It's all about Powell really in this speech, because if we got an outside reversal today, then we could be set for a pullback. I think as always, when I'm looking at targets, initial targets, they have symmetry swing support 3188. So we could have a pull, depending upon how this goes today, we could get this pullback. Or if we don't, then the markets continue to trade higher. The target in terms of the next measured move is up here at 3726. So we'll be watching how we close out today. Similar story in the NASDAQ, we're testing this ascending trend line resistance. We're up at the 161 extension of that pandemic crash. So, again, if various reversal patterns here, and we could be looking for a pullback certainly into this 12,000 area, sorry, 11,200, which is the ascending trend line support. And then finally, we'll just check in with gold. Gold I think is, we've got one or two scenarios here. We're either going to do a complex correction and pretty much come back in to retest highs before getting a pullback. Or if we hold these current highs, and I'm still looking at this 1823 area as a setup, but either way, I think we're, I still think we can see how our price is involved, but I think we're in this corrective phase now. And if we look at the pullback we had here and the sharp nature of it, again, thinking about that idea of alternation, it's easy to understand that this might be more a complex pattern in terms of this being the potential fourth wave consolidation before we get that fifth wave spike. Okay, that's pretty much me fought for now. Again, the focus really needs to be on the closes tonight and see how the market digests pal's speech. I mean, certainly want to pay attention to those weekly closes as we could get some great setups developing. So, are there any questions if you can raise your hand and I can unmute your mic or you can type them in a chat box if there's a chart you want me to look at that I haven't covered? Equally, if you don't have a question, if you can type an N in the chat box, then I'll know that everyone's on board and I can wrap this session up here. Okay, good stuff. Well, thanks for your time today. I hope you found this useful and I'll see you guys same time, same place next week. Thanks very much.